Padres Press Clips Friday, November 4, 2016

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1 Padres Press Clips Friday, November 4, 2016 Article Source Author Page Hindsight: The Odrisamer Despaigne trade UT San Diego Sanders 2 Friar talk: Vegas confirms long odds for Padres 2017 title hopes UT San Diego Sanders 5 Prospect Reports: San Diego Padres FanGraphs.com Longenhagen 8 1

2 Hindsight: The Odrisamer Despaigne trade Jeff Sanders Contact Reporter Reviewing each of the significant trades that General Manager A.J. Preller completed leading up to and during the 2016 season. As the prices for intriguing yet ultimately unknown Cuban commodities ballooned with each passing year, the Padres initial dip in that market was a buy-low opportunity on a 27-year-old pitcher who didn t draw the interest that other countrymen had. His stay in the organization lasted less than two years before he was traded for a low-level prospect to clear a 40-man spot to sign closer Fernando Rodney last February. LEAVING SAN DIEGO RHP Odrisamer Despaigne: The Padres most significant Cuban addition before this summer s spending spree, Despaigne signed for $1 million in the spring of 2014 and impressed early upon reaching the majors with a string of five straight quality starts, including a no-hitter that he took into the eighth inning against the Mets. It was mostly downhill from there, with Despaigne s inability to pitch effectively outside Petco Park (3.38 career ERA) sabotaging his opportunities as a spot-starter a year later. The following spring he was shipped to Baltimore, where he appeared in 16 games in relief (5.60 ERA) before he was waived in September. The Marlins picked him up for three more relief appearances before his season ended with a career-high 5.93 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and nearly as many walks (16) as strikeouts (17) over 30 1/3 innings in the majors. Despaigne does have one thing going for him if he can find a home in a pitcher-friendly division: He posted a 3.87 ERA, 70 strikeouts and a 1.34 WHIP in 88 1/3 innings (18 games, 17 starts) at Triple-A Norfolk. 2

3 LEAVING BALTIMORE RHP Jean Cosme: Although the 20-year-old didn t finish among the Padres top-30 prospects, according to MLB.com, 2016 represented his best season to date. A 17 th -round pick in 2014 out of Puerto Rico, Cosme turned in a careerbest 3.22 ERA while spending the entire season at low Single-A Fort Wayne. A mid-season All-Star, Cosme struck out 94, walked 23 and posted a 1.27 ERA over 106 1/3 innings, most of them in the rotation (28 games, 18 starts). Look for Cosme to take his mid-90s fastball to high Single-A Lake Elsinore in HINDSIGHT Despite a fast start in the majors, Despaigne s inconsistencies appeared to limit him to a spot-start/long relief role heading into his late 20s. With contention a long shot in Preller s second season, flipping Despaigne for a power-pitching prospect of any age proved a boon as a number of arms stepped in to eat innings that may have gone to the 29-year-old Despaigne. Left-hander Clayton Richard, for instance, excelled down the stretch, while right-handers Edwin Jackson, Paul Clemens and Jarred Cosart were serviceable for a 68-win team that needed to dig up pitchers like Cosme to field future rotations more than it needed Despaigne as the 25th man on the roster. A.J. Preller s 2016 trade timeline Nov. 12: The Joaquin Benoit trade Nov. 13: The Craig Kimbrel trade Dec. 2: The Yonder Alonso trade Dec. 8: The Jedd Gyorko trade Dec. 10: The Casey Kelly trade Feb. 4: The Odrisamer Despaigne trade June 4: The James Shields trade June 30: The Fernando Rodney trade July 14: The Drew Pomeranz trade 3

4 July 26: The Melvin Upton Jr. trade July 29: The Andrew Cashner trade July 30: The Matt Kemp trade 4

5 Friar talk: Vegas confirms long odds for Padres' 2017 title hopes Jeff Sanders Contact Reporter As the Union-Tribune s Tom Krasovic notes, the Padres and the Chargers currently a combined 0-for-97 in title chasing have quite a bit of losing to do to match the Cubs misery. Of course, virtually no one believes the Padres are the cusp of a oneyear turnaround after finishing with baseball s third-worst record in General Manager A.J. Preller s second full season in the front office. In fact, the Padres are far more likely to compete for 2018 s No. 1 overall draft pick if you buy Bovada s assertion that San Diego is among the longest of long shots to win the 2017 World Series. How long? Try 100-to-1, right alongside the Diamondbacks, Braves, Reds, Twins and Phillies. Those odds might even be a little optimistic in San Diego. After all, the Padres are coming off their 14 th -worst season in franchise history, the front office spent the summer ridding themselves of their most pricey and experienced players and the team likely poured more resources into signing amateur talent than they ll likely spend on next year s big league roster. A look at how Bovada sees the rest of baseball s World Series odds heading into the offseason: Chicago Cubs 7/2 Boston Red Sox 9/1 Los Angeles Dodgers 9/1 Washington Nationals 12/1 Cleveland Indians 14/1 New York Mets 14/1 San Francisco Giants 14/1 Toronto Blue Jays 14/1 5

6 Houston Astros 16/1 Texas Rangers 16/1 Baltimore Orioles 22/1 Detroit Tigers 22/1 St. Louis Cardinals 22/1 New York Yankees 25/1 Seattle Mariners 25/1 Pittsburgh Pirates 28/1 Kansas City Royals 33/1 Chicago White Sox 40/1 Miami Marlins 40/1 Los Angeles Angels 50/1 Colorado Rockies 66/1 Tampa Bay Rays 66/1 Milwaukee Brewers 75/1 Oakland Athletics 75/1 Arizona Diamondbacks 100/1 Atlanta Braves 100/1 Cincinnati Reds 100/1 Minnesota Twins 100/1 Philadelphia Phillies 100/1 San Diego Padres 100/1 Around the water cooler Josh Johnson s attempt to return to a major league mound after a third Tommy John procedure will take place on the West Coast in San Francisco. The Giants have signed the 32-year-old pitcher to a minor league deal nearly three years after Johnson chose the Padres over San Francisco as a free agent heading into the 2014 season. Only Johnson never pitched for the Padres, undergoing a second Tommy John surgery that spring and again late in 2015 after a failed attempt to produce with the Padres on a minor league deal. Speaking of former Padres, the Marlins, as expected declined to pick up reliever Fernando Rodney s $4.5 million option, Sirius XM s Craig Mish 6

7 reported this morning. Rodney, who will turn 40 in March, was an All-Star for the third time in his career after going 17-for-17 in save opportunities in San Diego before he was flipped to Miami for pitching prospect Chris Paddack. Also, former Padres slugger Phil Nevin is a finalist alongside Torey Lovullo for the Diamondbacks managerial job. Lovullo worked with new General Manager Mike Hazen in Boston, while Nevin has managed Arizona s Triple-A affiliate the last three seasons. 7

8 Prospect Reports: San Diego Padres by Eric Longenhagen - November 3, 2016 Below is an analysis of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. Padres Top Prospects Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV 1 Anderson Espinoza 18 A RHP Manny Margot 22 MLB CF Cal Quantrill 21 A RHP Hunter Renfroe 24 MLB OF Adrian Morejon 18 R LHP Fernando Tatis, Jr. 17 A- 3B Jacob Nix 20 A RHP Chris Paddack 20 A RHP Jeisson Rosario 17 R OF Logan Allen 19 A LHP Carlos Asuaje 24 MLB 2B Luis Urias 19 A+ 2B Gabriel Arias 16 R SS Jorge Ona 19 R OF Mason Thompson 18 R RHP Reggie Lawson 19 R RHP Luis Almanzar 17 R SS Eric Lauer 21 A LHP Hudson Potts 18 A- 3B Jose Rondon 22 MLB SS Michael Gettys 21 A+ CF Phil Maton 23 AAA RHP

9 Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV 23 Michel Miliano 16 R RHP Enyel De Los Santos 20 A+ RHP Dinelson Lamet 24 AAA RHP Josh Naylor 19 A+ 1B Buddy Reed 21 R CF Nick Torres 23 AAA OF Austin Allen 22 A C Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL Hansel Rodriguez 19 A- RHP Yimmi Brasoban 22 AA RHP Anderson Espinoza, RHP 60 FV Prospects Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela Age 19 Height 6 0 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 60/70 50/70 50/70 40/50 Recorded just 5.6% walk rate after trade to San Diego. Espinoza got a $1.8 million bonus in 2014 despite his diminutive stature because, despite a lack of height, his arm worked incredibly well and he already showed terrific feel for spin. He was unhittable in the GCL when he debuted stateside, allowing just three earned runs in 40 innings there. He wasn t as dominant in 2016 and reports of his stuff and performance were a little inconsistent, after he was traded to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz, but this was an 18-yearold dealing with severance from the organization that changed his life and his peripherals were good despite inflated ERAs. By the time instructional league arrived, things had come together and Espinoza was arguably the best pitching prospect throwing during instructs in either Arizona or Florida. He was with movement in an abbreviated final instructional-league outing and flashed a plus-plus curveball. Despite lacking prototypical measurables Espinoza has added velocity as his trunk and torso have thickened. I think he ll be quite stocky and strong at maturity. The delivery is efficient and explosive but rarely out of control, and Espinoza is smooth and athletic enough to project at least average command at maturity. His arm speed allows for a moving fastball in the

10 range during extended outings and he ll reach the upper 90s. His arm action will lengthen a bit when he throws his changeup, but he has tremendous feel for creating movement on the change and it s routinely plus. Espinoza had issues with curveball consistency this year but it was fathoms deep and dominant this fall and Espinoza has begun burying it to left-handed hitters more frequently. Espinoza s size isn t an issue for me. Yes, he s short, but the delivery is easy, he s athletic and strong and he creates plane and movement on his fastball despite his size. Some are concerned about where the body is going but I consider Espinoza athletic enough to maintain his delivery even if he does get big. He has shown three 70 offerings. If they all mature there, and I think there s a chance they will, we re talking about a top-of-the-rotation arm. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 5.0 WAR 55 FV Prospects 2. Manny Margot, CF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic 10

11 Age 22 Height 5 11 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/60 50/55 30/40 70/70 55/60 60/60 Slashed.304/.351/.426 with just 11.3% strikeout rate at Triple-A in Worth 12 runs above average in 118 Triple-A games in center-field games, per Clay Davenport. Margot signed with Boston in 2011 for just $800,000 and coasted through the low minors, tasting High-A as a teenager. He spent time on the disabled list in 2015 with a shoulder injury and was traded to San Diego at the beginning of last offseason as part of a blockbuster package for Craig Kimbrel. He had success on both sides of the ball at Triple-A this year, received a second invite to the Futures Game and made his debut at Petco Park in September. The defense is big-league ready and projects to plus at maturity. Margot not only has excellent speed but terrific athleticism and feel for his routes and footwork in the outfield. He also has a plus arm. Center fielders across the majors produced a collective.316 woba in 2016 and Margot projects to hit better than that, perhaps immediately. He has plus bat speed, his barrel is quick into the zone and he has excellent hand-eye coordination. He projects as a plus hitter. While Margot has average raw power, his in-game swing prioritizes contact and he hits a lot of balls on the ground. It s possible Margot may learn to elevate the ball more regularly as he matures, and if he does he ll become a star-level player. But proactive changes to Margot s hitting approach might backfire and eat away at his ability to make contact. Even if his game power never materializes beyond 8-12 homers per year, this is a plus defender in center field who provides near-leadoff-level contact and on-base ability. Margot is a relatively safe bet to provide aboveaverage daily production. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 13.6 WAR 11

12 3. Cal Quantrill, RHP Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Stanford Age 22 Height 6 3 Weight 195 Bat/Throw L/R Fastball Slider Changeup Command 55/60 45/50 55/70 45/55 Produced 36.7% strikeout rate at Low-A. Quantrill was seen as one of the 2016 draft s potential 1.1 candidates but he blew out his arm in March of 2015 and had Tommy John surgery late in that month. Quantrill aimed to come back and pitch for Stanford sometime in 2016 (and teams wanted to see him) but it never materialized. This sparked rumors in the industry that a team had already begun talking to him 12

13 and asked him to shut down to ensure he d fall to their pick as teams at the top of the draft would have a hard time justifying the selection of a pitcher who hadn t pitched in a year. Quantrill was drafted at No. 8 overall and, had he pitched for Stanford and looked the way he did in pro ball after signing, there s a chance he would have been the first overall pick. Quantril was in the Arizona League and through instructional league, with a plus changeup that he throws to both left and right-handed hitters. It s a potentially dominant pitch, sold as if by a parasitic insurance salesman by terrific arm speed, only to close the deal with diving movement. Quantrill s third pitch is a mostly vertically breaking slider in the mph range. Its depth and bite varies and it s really only an average pitch right now, capable of missing bats when it s located off the plate but not consistently within or beneath the zone. A tremendous amount of Quantrill s projection relies upon the future of his breaking ball. If it can become a third above-average to plus pitch, then we re talking about a top-of-the-rotation ceiling here. It s rare to project liberally on breaking balls, especially from college pitchers, but I think Quantrill s year off from injury and the fact that s he s been tinkering with different breaking balls for a while now allows for more than usual. Scouts saw fringe command during pro ball but Quantrill lived mostly in and around the zone and was was just barely working back from surgery. I m comfortable projecting above-average command. He repeats his delivery, which is efficient and well paced. His arm slot creates plane on the fastball and the arm action is actually pretty compact for someone with such long levers. The body looked a little soft during AZL but Quantrill s frame is good. He s already been cut open once and the slider is a work in progress so there s some risk here, but once that slider tightens up it shouldn t be long before Quantrill s ready for the upper levels of the minors. 4. Hunter Renfroe, OF 50 FV Prospects Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Miss St. Age 25 Height 6 1 Weight 220 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/50 70/70 45/60 50/40 50/50 60/60 Slashed.306/.336/.557 at Triple-A El Paso in I m relatively skeptical about Renfroe s ability to hit. He has a deep load, late trigger and an undeniable, general stiffness and effort about his swing that looks like it s going to lead to a good bit of swing and miss. Despite that, he s shown an ability to move the bat around the zone and is especially adept at punishing balls down and in. On paper, he s cut his strikeout rate throughout the course of his minor-league career, though his walk rate has also seen a precipitous decline since his first full season. This might be a player who succeeds with the bat while bucking some 13

14 traditional scouting tropes (at least the one I peddle). If that s the case,then Renfroe is a potential middle-of-the-order bat, because we re talking about plus-plus raw power here. Renfroe s batting-practice displays are impressive. During Futures Game BP, he parked a few balls at the foot of the scoreboard that graces PETCO Park s upper deck in left field. He hits emphatic home runs and does so often, eclipsing the 20-homer mark in each full pro season in which he s participated. Even if Renfroe ends up striking out 20-25% of the time, the quality of the contact he does make is likely to be hard, which along with his average speed could make for a robust career BABIP. With the strikeouts and lack of walks, there s a chance Renfroe only reaches base at a clip but there should be enough power to profile despite that. He has a plus arm and should be an average defender in right field at maturity. This is a traditional power-hitting, right-field profile and one that feels relatively safe given the career-long success Renfroe has had, including the unsustainable but impressive deluge of power he showed in his short bigleague stint in KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.4 WAR 5. Adrian Morejon, LHP 14

15 Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba Age 18 Height 5 11 Weight 165 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Slider Changeup Command 60/60 50/55 50/60 40/55 Didn t play in any recorded games. The best pitcher in the 2016 July 2 crop, Morejon signed for $11 million, essentially costing the Padres $22 million when you factor in the tax they paid on their bonus-pool overage. He made one short start during instructs, sitting while flashing a plus change in the low 80s and pitching with an average slider mostly at mph. He was shut down due to arm soreness for the rest of instructs but has begun throwing again. Like Espinoza, Morejon doesn t have prototypical height but possesses a sturdy, mature frame and a smooth, repeatable delivery (though Morejon s is less electric). Reports on Morejon as an amateur almost always began with scouts glowing about how advanced he was, both in depth of repertoire and in command of it. We got to see a little of that during his instructional-league appearance, where all three of Morejon s pitches were as advertised. Without seeing him navigate a lineup several times, though, it s hard to have an idea where he might start next year and how fast he might move. I think there s a chance for three above-average pitches and plus command which I think is a No. 2 or 3 type of arm. Risk is inherent in age and occupation. 6. Fernando Tatis, Jr., 3B Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic Age 18 Height 6 3 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/50 50/60 30/50 45/40 45/60 60/70 Had.182 ISO and 26.5% strikeout in 50-PA taste of Northwest League at age 17. The primary return from Chicago in exchange for James Shields early this season, Tatis was already an intriguing prospect late in the spring but continued to improve as the summer went on and now looks like a potential star. He has shortstop actions and a future 70 arm, but he ll 15

16 almost certainly need to move to third base eventually as his large frame fills in and he slows down. The combination of the arm, athleticism, hands and actions could lead to plus-plus defense at third base, though, and with more mass will come more power. Tatis has good bat speed and some natural leverage in his swing and could have plus raw power at maturity. He may never tap into it, though. The swing is noisy, with lots of independently moving parts and Tatis contact issues are exacerbated by the length of his limbs and his propensity to be way out in front of offspeed stuff. I have a future 50 on the bat, which is pretty aggressive considering where Tatis is at right now, but he s still just 17 and has done nothing but exceed the expectations placed upon him as an amateur since arriving. If all the tools actualize, he s a star. Of course, at just 17 and with hefty swing-and-miss issues, he s also quite a risk. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR 7. Jacob Nix, RHP Video Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from IMG Age 21 Height 6 4 Weight 220 Bat/Throw R/R 16

17 Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 55/60 50/60 45/50 45/60 Cut walk rate from 7.7% in 2015 to 4.5% in Nix looks like he might end up having the best career of the three pitchers whom Houston selected but then failed to sign back in To review: top overall pick Brady Aiken failed his physical, negotiations with the team became strained and he didn t sign, resulting in the loss not only of Aiken but also the bonus-pool allotment associated with Aiken s pick, which Houston needed to sign Nix and current San Francisco pitching prospect Mac Marshall to the overslot bonus amounts to which they d agreed. (Aiken agreed to underslot money before his physical.) Doesn t baseball s draft sound fun? Nix, who was committed to UCLA, was locked out of his scholarship there after he filed a grievance with the backing of the player s union, so he diverted his career to IMG Academy in Florida. He was drafted in the third round by San Diego in Nix had a tremendous 2016 both on paper and between the chalk lines, where he improved his repertoire top to bottom. Nix s fastball sits and will touch 96 with average movement and plane. His fastball command took a step forward this year and, while not yet surgical, he can at least dictate east and west right now and throw a high percentage of strikes. He also has mature command of his upper-70s curveball, a consistently average offering that flashes plus. It s often a true 12-6 curveball, though Nix will also tilt it away from righties. He can throw it for strikes early in counts and bury it beneath the zone when he s ahead. It could be a plus pitch at maturity. His changeup, which leans more heavily on good arm speed and velocity separation than it does movement, will flash above average. Some scouts prefer the changeup s projection to the curveball s. He s just 20 but Nix has already grown into his body quite considerably and comps physically to Jon Lieber. He repeats a very simple, direct delivery and has a good arm action. He looks like an inning-eating, mid-rotation horse who has a chance to be a true No. 3 starter if both secondaries reach their potential peaks. Of note: Nix was diagnosed with spondylolisthesis when he was 11 and spent a few years away from baseball as an adolescent. It was corrected with surgery. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.8 WAR 17

18 45 FV Prospects 8. Chris Paddack, RHP Drafted: 8th Round, 2015 from Cedar Park HS (TX) Age 21 Height 6 4 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 55/60 45/50 60/70 50/60 Recorded 42.1 innings, 5 walks, 71 strikeouts, and 1 Tommy John procedure. Paddack went straight from Marlins extended spring training all the way to Low-A in May and was untouchable as soon as he set foot in Greensboro. He strung 15 hitless innings together in late June before he was traded to San Diego for Fernando Rodney. He promptly broke and 18

19 had Tommy John in August. Pre-injury Paddack feasted on Low-A hitters with a Bugs Bunny changeup, polished command and a low-90s fastball that played up due to plane and extension. Paddack was old for his draft class (he was 19 and a half at the time of the draft) which was probably part of why he fell so far, but he remains physically projectable at a broad shouldered 6-foot-4. There s a chance he adds to his mph fastball as he ages. Paddack s projection is limited by a lack of a truly dominant breaking ball. Though Paddack has improved the depth of his breaking ball, it lacks consistent bite and shape and really only projects to average. He has the same mid-rotation projection he did mid-year, but is one surgery riskier than he was at that time. 9. Jeisson Rosario, OF Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic Age 17 Height 5 11 Weight 170 Bat/Throw L/L Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/60 40/50 30/50 55/55 40/50 55/60 None. Only saw stateside game time during instructional league. While some of the other hitters whom San Diego signed on July 2 arguably have more upside, Rosario s performance on the back fields this Fall was the most impressive and I think he has a chance for five average-or-better tools. Rosario got $1.85 million in July and was viewed as a bat-first corner outfielder who d probably hit enough to make up for a lack of physical/power projection. Here in Arizona he not only looked likely to remain in center field but he could also be an excellent defender there, with the requisite range and feel for the position complemented by a 6 arm. At the plate, Rosario s approach was frustratingly patient for those of us trying to get as much video as possible of his swing, but his selectivity was impressive. Despite some issues with timing, Rosario s bat speed, feel for the barrel, wrist strength and hand-eye were all as advertised, and I do think he ll be a plus hitter one day. The frame has more projection than I anticipated and I think he s going to hit for average game power at maturity, cranking out home runs annually. That kind of power output from a player who also makes lots of contact and plays center field creates the makings of a potential star. If Rosario fills out, slows down more than I anticipate, and has to move to a corner, his bat will still profile there and that would probably mean he s grown into more power than I m currently projecting. He s at least an average everyday player and potentially much more. Rosario just turned 17 in October and is obviously a risky commodity because of his age and lack of proximity to the majors. I have him ahead of Luis Almanzar, Gabby Arias and other J2 kids because of my confidence in Rosario s bat, a much bigger question mark for the other teenagers in the org. 10. Logan Allen, LHP 19

20 Video Drafted: 8th Round, 2015 from IMG Age 20 Height 6 3 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/L Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 55/60 45/55 45/55 40/50 Has allowed just two home runs in 86.2 pro innings. Allen missed time in 2016 with elbow soreness but was good when he threw, sitting with plane and movement that plays in the zone and touching the mid-90s on occasion. He has a thick, sturdy frame that has matured rather quickly since he was drafted, and Allen is likely carrying more than his listed weight. He has maintained his relatively simple and direct delivery as he s added the weight, and while his arm action can get a little long and heavy, his command projects to average. Other than his elbow injury this year, all signs point toward an inningeating, mid-rotation starter here. The body and delivery both look pretty good, the fastball s effectiveness will outplay its raw velocity because of its movement, and Allen s curveball and changeup both project as above-average pitches. His mid-70s curveball has solid-average depth and bite and Allen s ability to both throw it for strikes and bury it underneath bats has progressed. The low-80s changeup s effectiveness is predicated on movement more than deceptive arm speed, but he s made significant strides with the pitch since signing. It s a solid all-around package, with a future plus fastball (that might actually play better than that because of the movement) potential plus curveball, above-average changeup and plenty of strikes. I don t anticipate Allen will develop surgical command. Allen was an eighth-rounder in 2015, falling that far due to signability concerns. The Red Sox bought him away from South Carolina for $725,000 and traded him to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel deal. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.1 WAR 20

21 11. Carlos Asuaje, 2B Drafted: 11th Round, 2013 from Nova Southeastern Age 25 Height 5 9 Weight 160 Bat/Throw L/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/60 30/30 40/30 50/50 45/50 40/40 Slashed.321/ at Triple-A in Another part of San Diego s return from Boston for Craig Kimbrel, Asuaje was in the middle of Fall League play in 2015 when he was traded to the Padres and ended up playing against his new Padre teammates at times because it was too late in the season for him to change AFL teams. He raked all Fall and continued to do so in 2016, as well, when he earned a late-year callup. 21

22 Asuaje has great bat-to-ball skills thanks to great hand-eye coordination, a compact stroke with good bat control and the ability to hit the ball to all fields. He s at least a future plus hitter. Beyond that, there isn t a whole lot here about which scouts are excited. Asuaje is an average runner and an unspectacular defender at second base, only projecting to average there, as well. He lacks game power and should hit a half-dozen home runs or so at peak, which is well-below the standard at second right now, especially if this year s power spike at the position is for real. I m willing to bet heavily on the bat and project Asuaje as a low-end regular but he has very little margin for error. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR 12. Luis Urias, 2B Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Mexico Age 20 Height 5 9 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R 22

23 Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/70 30/40 20/30 50/40 40/50 45/50 Produced.330/.397/.440 slash line and just 6.8% strikeout rate in Cal League at age 19. Was 3.4 years younger than the mean player in that league. Essentially a tools clone of Asuaje, at least offensively, Urias has a precocious feel to hit that leads to authoritative and picturesque all-fields contact. He has a slow, well-balanced leg kick that aids in timing as well as weight transfer. The bat is quick and direct to the baseball with a plane geared for line drives and ground balls much more than it is for airborne contact, and it s hard to project more than 30 game power despite such terrific contact skills. The body lacks projection, so there isn t much power coming from physical development, either. The rest of the package projects to around average. Urias isn t a burner and will probably slow down a bit as his squat frame fills out. He s limited to either second or third base defensively and probably just the former because he lacks big arm strength. He should be average at second, though some scouts think enough of his athleticism and body control to project on the glove a little more aggressively than that. There s very little margin for error here because Urias has very little power and projects to play a defensive position that, increasingly, requires it. But his bat-to-ball skills are superlative and teams find ways for guys like this to get at-bats at the big-league level. He projects as a fringeaverage regular for me and a low-risk one at that because his track record of hitting is so freakishly impressive. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 5.4 WAR 23

24 13. Gabriel Arias, SS Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela Age 16 Height 6 1 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/55 30/40 20/40 50/55 45/55 60/60 Nope, he s 16. Arias looks like a lock for shortstop and has a chance to become plus there at maturity if everything comes together. His arm is plus and the body has more projection than I anticipated based on what I heard from international scouts before he signed. He swung the bat well during instructional league, showing average bat speed that I think will tick up as he gets stronger. He 24

25 was able to make strong contact while keeping his body and swing under control while other prospects his age tend to overswing. I like his chances to hit and potentially rope out 8-12 homers a year while also making plenty of contact and playing a fine shortstop. That s an aboveaverage everyday player at the very least. 14. Jorge Ona, OF Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba Age 19 Height 6 1 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/50 55/60 40/55 45/40 45/50 50/50 None. Ona looked a little bigger and stiffer than was expected when he came to the U.S. but still showed solid power and feel for contact during instructional league. Barring a complete physical transformation (which I suppose isn t impossible considering how volatile Cuban bodies have been in recent years), he s destined for left field, which means he s going to have to hit and hit for some power. He s short to the ball, his wrists are pretty strong through contact and I think we ll see plus raw power at maturity. The primary thing for which I ll be looking from Ona next spring is more flexibility in his lower half, which I think will allow him to make better contact in general but especially on balls down in the zone. If that happens (or he makes some other adjustment that allows for better contact), then I think Ona will be an average everyday player with a chance to be a tick better if the power really plays in games. He s a rather volatile prospect, especially for a 20-year-old, but the physical tools for success are already here; it s just a matter of showing them consistently, which Ona hasn t been able to do, as he s had very little game action even dating back to his days in Cuba. The Padres gave him a $7 million bonus in July. 15. Mason Thompson, RHP Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Round Rock HS (TX) Age 19 Height 6 6 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 50/60 40/55 50/60 40/50 Recorded 12 strikeouts in 12 Arizona League innings. 25

26 Thompson s selection in the 2016 draft s third round completed an odd trinity for San Diego, who used three of their top five picks on injured, high-upside pitchers. Thompson would have almost certainly been a first-round pick had he not missed his senior year (except for a short appearance in a playoff game) recovering from Tommy John surgery. Thompson was up to 94 before his injury, with a projectable body and feel for both a breaking ball and changeup. The Padres gave him $1.7 million to sign, about $1 million above slot. Based on how he looked in the AZL and during instructional league, they may have found themselves a gem. He was in his first pro appearance but he s added velo over the last few weeks and was up to 94 with movement toward the end of instructional league. His changeup will flash plus. Thompson mimics his fastball s arm speed when he throws it and can generate spectacular movement as well. He s already throwing to both left- and right-handed hitters. The breaking ball has depth but its bite is inconsistent and it might only be average at maturity. At times, Thompson struggles to stay on top of the baseball, which eats away at the plane on his fastball and changeup and generally results in errant pitch location. He has below-average command right now, but the looks pro scouts had were all at a pitcher fresh off a surgery, and I think it s unfair to have expected much more than that. This is a quintessential prep pitching body and delivery. Thompson has a good arm action, extending and generally repeating his delivery. I think he ll have starter-worthy command at maturity. It s important to consider the context in which Thompson was seen late this summer and fall before drawing any conclusion. I think it s prudent to be skeptical about Thompson s mph velocity holding deep into games and deep into a season, neither of which has been asked of him yet. His position on this list could change dramatically next summer but early indicators are excellent. 16. Reggie Lawson, RHP Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Victor Valley HS (CA) Age 19 Height 6 4 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 50/55 45/60 40/50 35/50 A.387 BABIP inflated his Arizona League ERA. As a rising senior on the summer showcase circuit, Lawson looked like a potential top-15 pick in the next year s draft. He was loose, athletic, projectable, had a low-90s fastball that was ticking up as the summer went along and had great feel for a big, deep curveball in the mph range that was likely to get harder and retain its shape as Lawson matured. He also showed some feel for a slider and changeup. The next spring, Lawson s delivery went backwards, his stuff ticked down and then he stopped throwing due to an injury. His high-school coach wouldn t elaborate as to the type of injury, leading to speculation about both (a) the existence of a severe injury or (b) the total absence of an injury at all. This ambiguity did more to hurt Lawson than help. There was talk of an oblique injury as well as a lat injury, and it looked like Lawson might end up at 26

27 Arizona State if teams were too scared to pay him. The robust nature of San Diego s draft bonus pool, combined with their underslot agreement with Hudson Potts, allowed for an overslot deal with Lawson, who ended up getting $1.9 million, a full million above slot. In pro ball, Lawson s velocity was mostly and dropping down into the range deeper in starts, his delivery was still less direct to the plate than it was during his showcase summer, and he had some issues repeating it and throwing strikes. His breaking ball is now up in the mph range and has more two-plane tilt to it than it did before, although its depth is less consistent. Lawson s feel for locating it is raw and his arm action can get a little long when he throws it. Things have certainly gone backwards for Lawson overall in the last year or so, but if you care do dream as I do, he still has a chance to be a No. 3 starter. You just have to squint a little harder to see it, and the health issues from the spring make him especially risky. 17. Luis Almanzar, SS Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic Age 17 Height 6 0 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/50 45/60 20/50 50/40 40/50 60/60 None. Everything that made Almanzar the No. 4 prospect on my J2 board from the summer is still present. The bat speed, bat path, weight transfer and high finish that afforded Almanzar perhaps the most enticing power projection in this year s J2 crop is all still there, wrapped in a physical package that looks like it s built to play baseball. Almanzar is likely to move off of shortstop and over to third base, where his actions and arm strength will be assets. He could be plus there at maturity. Almanzar has the physical tools to hit and hit for enough power to profile at third base (and just about anywhere else, for that matter), but without a truly premium defensive home on which to fall back if he comes up short on performance, Almanzar becomes riskier than Arias and thus is ranked beneath him. 18. Eric Lauer, LHP Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Kent State Age 22 Height 6 3 Weight 210 Bat/Throw R/L 27

28 Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command 50/55 55/55 40/45 45/50 45/50 Led Cape Cod League in strikeouts (50 in 39.2 IP) in Recorded 125 strikeouts in 103 innings this past year as junior at Kent State. Added 37 more in 31 pro innings across three levels. If certainty and stability appeal to you as an evaluator, then Lauer would be much higher on your list, as he s been as reliable as German automobile since his sophomore year at Kent State. He has an effortless delivery that produces a low-90s fastball. It lacks movement but Lauer still has some room for mass on his frame and might add a bit more velocity into his mid-20s. While it lacks life, Lauer works the bottom of the strike zone with his fastball consistently and garners plenty of ground balls when he s not carving hitters up with a robust array of secondary pitches. Included in the Eric Lauer Variety Pack is an average mid-70s curveball with slurvy two-plane movement, a sharper, horizontal slider in the mid-80s and mid-80s changeup. The slider is the best of those and the only one that projects as an above-average offering at peak, while the changeup is fringe-average but is usually kept down in the zone and is difficult to punish despite its mediocrity. Lauer s low walk rates are a bit misleading as, while he has above-average control, his command is a bit behind that. When he misses it s usually down beneath where he can get hurt, but he doesn t yet have dictatorial control over his repertoire. Without a great changeup or great command it s hard to see a clear path for success against right-handed hitters, but I think Lauer really only needs one of those two traits to progress to be a complete pitcher. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter for me. 19. Hudson Potts, 3B Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Southlake Carroll (TX) Age 18 Height 6 2 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/50 40/50 30/50 50/45 40/50 50/55 Slashed.295/.333/.399 in AZL. I became enamored of Potts (then called Hudson Sanchez) at the 2015 Area Code Games, where he looked good defensively at third and short (though the body obviously projected to the former) and hit a 420-foot homer later in the week. Even I didn t expect him to go in the first round of June s draft, however, but certain high-profile dominoes fell (or didn t fall) in such a 28

29 way that San Diego opted to pop him in the first round and sign him to an underslot deal to facilitate deals with Lawson and Thompson later in the draft. Potts looked solid during AZL and instructional-league play. He began showing some oppositefield power during intructs, though it was more of the doubles variety than over-the-fence raw. I still think he has a chance to be an impact defender at third base, though he was unspectacular there in pro ball and some scouts think he may move to an outfield corner at some point. Regardless of his future defensive home, Potts will need to hit, and I anticipate future average hit and game power tools. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.5 WAR 20. Jose Rondon, SS Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Venezuela Age 23 Height 6 1 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R 29

30 Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 40/40 30/30 55/55 50/55 55/55 Produced average exit velocity of just 83.6 mph in small major-league sample. League average was 89. Rondon plays a dynamite shortstop with above-average range, arm and athleticism that lead to some acrobatic plays. He also has plus bat speed. But Rondon s load is both excessively high and excessively deep (which should have been the tagline for Deep Blue Sea for several reasons you can infer for yourself), which leads to weak contact and tardy swings. He projects as a belowaverage regular for me by virtue of the fact that he can play an above-average shortstop, but some don t think the defense is good enough to balance out Rondon s punchless offensive projection and consider him more of a utility man. That s still a solid return for the relief combo plate San Diego traded to acquire Rondon from Anaheim. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.6 WAR 30

31 40 FV Prospects 21. Michael Gettys, CF Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Gainesville HS (GA) Age 21 Height 6 1 Weight 203 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 55/55 30/40 60/60 40/50 70/70 Produced.405 BABIP in 561 plate appearances across two levels in 2016, marking second time Gettys has crossed.400 threshold in pro season. Also recorded 26% strikeout rate. Gettys has been trying to shed the tools-goof label since high school. He s a 60 runner (he s been 4.2 down the line consistently for me this fall) with a 70 arm and 55 raw power. His range in center field is excellent, but he s still learning how to communicate with the other outfielders and close out routes on balls successfully. When he arrived in the AZL in 2014, I saw him do nothing but rake. I thought things had come together and the Padres had a quick-moving star on their hands. But Gettys has run into better breaking balls as he s climbed the minor-league ladder and it has been an issue. He s swinging and missing at balls in the dirt an awful lot here in the Fall League and it might be too optimistic to project even a 40 hit tool at maturity. Tools like Gettys admirable collection are rare and useful even if they re undercut by issues at the plate. At the very worst, I could see Gettys becoming a Drew Stubbs type of player (though he isn t that kind of defender yet). If he somehow learns to hit then he ll be a star, but he hasn t made much progress there in two full pro seasons despite his best efforts. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.3 WAR 31

32 22. Phil Maton, RHP Drafted: 20th Round, 2015 from LA Tech Age 24 Height 6 3 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command 70/70 50/50 40/40 45/50 45/50 Recorded 78 strikeouts in 51.2 pro innings this year, including 12 in 6.0 Triple-A innings. Whoever found Phil Maton deserves a raise. Maton was a 20th-round pick in 2015 out of Louisiana Tech and, while he led Conference USA in strikeouts that year, he was seen as a oneor two-pitch arm with some athleticism but little projection and maybe a middle-relief future. He has exploded through San Diego s system, skipping Double-A and having success in a few PCL innings this season as a reliever. Maton s fastball sits and plays up because of spin rates up over 2500 rpms. Maton garners an awful lot of awkward swings and misses on fastball 32

33 up above the strike zone, which I think is indicative of effective spin. I think that, combined with a deceptive delivery, Maton s fastball plays as plus-plus. His slider is average and he ll show a cutter and changeup, as well. He projects to middle relief on paper but the results have been so good that I think it s worth wondering if there s more than that here. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR 23. Michel Miliano, RHP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic Age 16 Height 6 3 Weight 183 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 45/60 40/60 40/50 40/55 33

34 None. I saw Miliano during fall instructional-league, where he was and touching 94 with downhill plane and locating his fastball to both sides of the plate. He has feel for spinning a fringe to average curveball in the mph range. It has promising depth and Miliano showed some ability to locate it, including one well-placed back-door curveball to a left-handed hitter. The body is projectable and athletic, the delivery and arm action are graceful, efficient and repeatable. It was the young man s first appearance in live game action in a Padres uniform, and I thought he looked poised and excited to compete. Miliano turns 17 on December 22nd, per the DOB provided on San Diego s instrux roster. I think he d be a first-round pick if he were eligible for June s draft and that he might be the coup of the 2016 July 2 class, during which he signed for $450, Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic Age 21 Height 6 3 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 55/60 40/45 40/50 45/55 Has experienced decline in strikeout rate during rise through the minors, down to 17.6% in Acquired from Seattle in exchange for Joaquin Benoit, De Los Santos was a projectable strikethrower with a good arm but raw, ineffective secondaries. He remains so, sitting and touching 96. He has a middling array of secondaries, his breaking ball especially lacking consistency to the point where scouts have a hard time telling if there are one or two different versions being thrown. De Los Santos need only develop one truly effective secondary to profile as a reliever and he s just 20 years old with plenty of time for tinkering toward more than that. I m not willing to give up on the body, control and arm strength just because the pitch development has stagnated for a year. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.0 WAR 34

35 25. Dinelson Lamet, RHP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic Age 24 Height 6 4 Weight 187 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Slider Command 55/60 55/60 40/40 Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 29% and 9%, respectively, at Double-A in Lamet sits with some deception and downhill plane that stems from his arm slot. It s a nearly vertical slot created by tilt of the spine. From that slot also comes a plus-flashing slider that is, at times, almost totally vertically oriented, even in the upper 80s. He has below-average command and there s very little hope for a viable changeup at this point. I think Lamet could be a setup-man type of arm if the command comes along a little bit and a tick is added to his stuff in shorter stints. 35

36 KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.8 WAR 26. Josh Naylor, 1B Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from St. Joan of Arc (Missassauga, CN) Age 20 Height 6 0 Weight 225 Bat/Throw / Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 70/70 30/50 20/20 30/40 60/60 Has produced 4.6% career walk rate. Naylor was sent from Miami to San Diego in the Andrew Cashner trade. His draft stock skyrocketed during a late-spring tour with the Canadian Junior National Team and there were 36

37 rumors he could have been picked as high as 10th overall. He went at 12 and signed under slot for $2.2 million. He has 70 raw power. He shows it during BP, every once in a while he ll annihilate a ball ingame that shows just how far he can hit them, but power production hasn t shown up in games with frequency. I don t think it s a bat-speed issue or anything physical; the power is in there, but rather Naylor s approach doesn t allow him to get to his power. He s over aggressive and often swings at ball with which he can t make contact, let alone drive with authority. I understand why the Padres like Naylor he s twitchy for his size and the power is tremendous but I think his approach could be fatal. He needs to hit a ton to profile because he s a firstbase-only prospect who isn t especially good there. Scouts don t like the athleticism nor the body s projection. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.8 WAR 27. Buddy Reed, CF Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Florida 37

38 Age 18 Height 0 0 Weight 0 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/40 40/55 30/40 70/70 40/50 60/60 Recorded 21% strikeout rate as junior at Florida, 23% in Low-A after signing. It s rare to find college hitters with tools like Reed s, but his feel for hitting never came and he fell to the Padres in the second round. He was heavily focused on bunting when I saw him during instructional league, so it looks like San Diego is scheming to find ways to sneak him on base. You can t run forever, though, and sooner or later Reed is going to need to make a little bit of contact. I view Reed as being more explosive than he is athletic and am unsure about his ability to make adjustments. He s a 70 runner with a plus arm and should be at least aboveaverage in center field with reps. There s a chance Reed hits neither for power nor contact, which would put an awful lot of pressure on his defense for him to profile as a regular. He projects as a fourth outfielder for me, but if he somehow starts hitting he d be an absolute monster, and I ll happily eat an entire murder of crows if it means I get to watch those tools play. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.4 WAR 38

39 28. Nick Torres, OF Video Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Cal Poly SLO Age 24 Height 6 1 Weight 220 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 45/45 40/40 40/40 50/50 50/50 Slashed.282/.321/.416 at Double-A in Torres is short to the ball and has a bat path that creates natural loft, which allows him to make the most out of his raw power in games. The problem is Torres doesn t have very much raw power and doesn t project to hit for the kind of pop that profiles in a corner. He could be the short end of a platoon but profiles more as a below-average regular or bench bat. 39

40 KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.9 WAR 29. Austin Allen, C Drafted: 4th Round, 2015 from Florida Tech Age 23 Height 6 4 Weight 225 Bat/Throw L/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/50 60/60 30/40 30/20 40/45 50/50 Slashed.320/.364/.425 at Low-A. Allen was drafted in the fourth round of 2015 because he had big raw power (he slugged.728 as a junior at Florida Tech) and a non-zero chance to catch. The raw power is still in there, but Allen had issues elevating the ball consistently this season and had just eight homers. His pullheavy approach will likely garner shifts in the big leagues. His receiving is fine and his pop times 40

41 hover around average (I ve had him as low as 1.94), but scouts are simply concerned that, by the time his bat is ready, Allen will be too big to have the mobility required to catch. There s precedent for a body like this behind the plate (Evan Gattis and Gary Sanchez are both about Allen s size) but it s rare. Allen could break out statistically in 2017 with a Cal League assignment. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR 30. Josh VanMeter, UTIL Drafted: 5th Round, 2013 from Norwell HS (IN) Age 22 Height 5 11 Weight 165 Bat/Throw L/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/60 35/40 30/40 40/40 40/45 45/45 Walked in 12% of plate appearances at High-A in

42 VanMeter has a selective approach and great bat-to-ball skills. I think he ll be a plus hitter at maturity. He has 40 raw power. VanMeter spent much of 2016 at third base and he s played there a lot during Fall League but he doesn t have enough arm strength for the left side of the infield and projects as more as a second-base/left-field bench bat because there isn t enough power here to play everyday at those positions. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 2.5 WAR 31. Hansel Rodriguez, RHP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic Age 20 Height 6 2 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Slider Changeup Command 50/60 40/50 40/50 40/50 42