2017 Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts
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1 2017 Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts Fisheries and Oceans Canada Pêches et Océans Canada B. MacDonald & *S. Grant Forum on Conservation & Harvest Planning for Fraser Salmon March
2 Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Review: Dec Approved by the DFO Pacific Regional Director of Science: Feb Reviewers: Name Mike Lapointe Catherine Michielsens Keri Benner Ann-Marie Huang Mike Hawkshaw Les Jantz Jamie Scroggie Bob Conrad Mike Staley Kelsey Campbell Aaron Dufault Affiliation Pacific Salmon Commission Pacific Salmon Commission Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission IAS Ltd. A-Tlegay Fisheries Society Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Jennifer Nener Scott Decker Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific 2
3 2017 Fraser Pink Forecast 3
4 Fraser River Pinks: Returns Returns (Millions) Average: 13M System-Specific Programs System-Wide MR Test fishery Mission Hydroacoustics 4
5 Fraser River Pinks Fry Abundance Average: 450 M 230 M Brood Year 5
6 Fraser River Pinks Survival Returns/Fry Average: 3% 0.9% (lowest survival on record) Brood Year 2013 BY 2014 OEY 2015 Returns 6
7 2017 Fraser Pink Forecasts Average: 12.4M Power (fry)-sss: 3.8% (Average: 3%)
8 2017 Fraser Sockeye Forecast 8
9 Early Stuart Early Stuart Early Summer Bowron Fennell Gates Nadina Pitt Scotch Seymour Early Shuswap Miscellaneous Taseko Miscellaneous** Chilliwack miscellaneous Nahatlach miscellaneous Summer Chilko Late Stuart Quesnel Stellako Raft Late June to Early-July Late-July to Early-Aug Early-to- Mid-Aug. Harrison North Thompson River Miscellaneous North Thompson Tributaries Miscellaneous Widgeon miscellaneous Fraser Timing Late Cultus Late Shuswap (Adams River) Portage Weaver Birkenhead Non-Shuswap miscellaneous Mid-Aug. 9
10 Factors influencing total returns Age of Maturity # Adult Spawners Survival Brood Year Escapement 10
11 Age of Maturity Marine 2 Winters May-June 2015 Most Fraser Sockeye Mature as Four Year Olds Freshwater 2 Winters June-October 2015 First Winter 2016 Second Winter 2017 Brood Year July-Oct 2013 April-May 2014 July-Oct 2017 April-May 2015 Return: 4 yrs 11
12 Brood Year Escapement: Index of the Number of Eggs 12
13 Below average 2013 Small contributors FIVE year (cycle old average) brood Well above year average EFS FOUR year Early old brood Stuart year (10%) EFS 3% *Bowron Fennell Scotch *Seymour Taseko Large FIVE year old brood year EFS Chilliwack Chilko (14%) 50% Late Stuart (20%) 6% Quesnel (42%) 8% *Quesnel Three Year Olds Harrison Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart 39,700 Early Summer Bowron 1,900 Fennell 2,000 Gates 23,100 Nadina 7,100 Pitt 35,900 Scotch 11,000 Seymour 13,900 Misc (Early Shuswap) 5,000 Misc. (Taseko) 70 Misc. (Chilliwack) 5,000 Misc. (Nahatlatch) 800 Summer 127,367 Chilko j 624,000 Late Stuart 70,900 Quesnel 96,100 Stellako 54,100 Raft 9,000 Harrison 78,000 Misc. (N. Thomp. Tribs.) 1,400 Misc. (N. Thomp. River) 8,500 Misc. (Widgeon) 700 Late 2013 Brood Year (Age-4) 2012 Brood Year (Age-5) 6, ,900 16,800 41, ,800 1, ,367 90,800 31, ,600 1, , *Late Shuswap Late Shuswap Portage (1%) 7% *Weaver *Birkenhead smolts Cultus 110,000 Late Shuswap 15,500 Portage 4,200 Weaver 15,500 Birkenhead 46,800 Misc. non-shuswap 4,300 63, ,500 1,100 13
14 Survival 14
15 Fraser Sockeye Returns Dominant Adams Run 28 M 20M Returns 2017 Cycle Average All Cycle Average Return Year 2016 preliminary return (853K lowest on record) 15
16 Chilko Sockeye
17 Chilko Freshwater Survival Log e (Smolts/Effective Females) Average 2015 and 2016 returns Corresponds to very large 2010 escapement Brood Year
18 Chilko Marine Survival (includes downstream migration after the weir) Log e (Recruits/Smolt) 2005 BY BY s 2011 & 2012 Brood Years (2015 & 2016 four year old returns) Brood Year 18
19 Survival and Fraser Sockeye Forecasts poor average good Run timing group Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart 13,000 22,000 36,000 59,000 89,000 Early Summer 120, , ,000 1,003,000 2,703,000 Bowron 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 Fennell 6,000 9,000 14,000 23,000 39,000 Gates 24,000 40,000 76, , ,000 Nadina 24,000 45,000 90, , ,000 Pitt 42,000 60,000 90, , ,000 Scotch 300 2,000 12,000 89, ,000 Seymour ,000 3,000 Misc (Early Shuswap) e 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 24,000 Misc (Taseko) e ,000 1,000 2,000 Misc (Chilliwack) 17,000 46, , ,000 1,101,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) f 4,000 8,000 14,000 26,000 49,000 Summer 647,000 1,004,000 1,695,000 2,984,000 5,031,000 Chilko g 459, ,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000 Quesnel 6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000 Late Stuart 42,000 86, , , ,000 Stellako 86, , , , ,000 Misc (Harrison) h & i 40,000 85, , , ,000 Raft h 11,000 16,000 26,000 38,000 62,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j 600 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j 1,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 19,000 Misc (Widgeon) k 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000 Late 41,000 65, , , ,000 Cultus g 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000 **Late Shuswap ,000 25,000 76,000 Portage ,000 2,000 Weaver 2,000 4,000 8,000 17,000 31,000 xx Birkenhead 30,000 45,000 68, , ,000 Misc non-shuswap k 8,000 14,000 27,000 48,000 84,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 821,000 1,308,000 2,289,000 4,251,000 8,191,000 19
20 2015 FORECAST Run timing group Forecast Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Model b Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 8,000 16,000 30,000 58, ,000 Early Summer 236, , ,000 1,603,000 2,963,000 (total excluding miscellaneous) 192, , ,000 1,256,000 2,342,000 Bowron MRS 6,000 11,000 21,000 40,000 72,000 Fennell power 10,000 16,000 27,000 47,000 78,000 **Gates Larkin 46,000 79, , , ,000 Nadina MRJ 8,000 15,000 31,000 65, ,000 Pitt Larkin 33,000 51,000 79, , ,000 *Scotch Ricker 48,000 85, , , ,000 *Seymour Ricker 41,000 68, , , ,000 Misc (EShu) c RS (Scotch/Seymour) 33,000 74, , , ,000 Misc (Taseko) d R/S (Chilko) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 Misc (Chilliwack) e RS (Esum) 4,000 9,000 18,000 33,000 61,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) e RS (Esum) 6,000 14,000 27,000 49,000 92,000 Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 (total excluding miscellaneous) 1,693,000 2,666,000 4,648,000 8,710,000 16,406,000 Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54, , ,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108, , , ,000 1,421,000 Stellako Larkin 186, , , , ,000 Raft f Ricker (PDO) 15,000 23,000 36,000 56,000 87,000 ***Harrison f Adjusted RS1 255, ,000 1,414,000 3,487,000 7,858,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 1,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 14,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 5,000 10,000 18,000 37,000 74,000 Misc (Widgeon) f & h R/S (Birkenhead) 2,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 17,000 Late 419, ,000 1,236,000 2,210,000 3,998,000 (total excluding miscellaneous) 400, ,000 1,176,000 2,103,000 3,809,000 Cultus MRJ 1,000 3,000 6,000 12,000 22,000 *Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc 168, , , ,000 1,758,000 *Portage Larkin 1,000 3,000 8,000 19,000 55,000 Weaver MRS 110, , , ,000 1,095,000 Birkenhead Ricker (Ei)+Sibling 120, , , , ,000 Misc. non-shuswap i R/S (Birkenhead) 19,000 32,000 60, , ,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 2,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000 (TOTAL excluding miscellaneous) 2,293,000 3,678,000 6,478,000 12,127,000 22,665,000 Freshwater 68% Summer Freshwater 20
21 Run timing group Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Stocks Forecast Model 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 13,000 22,000 36,000 59,000 89, FORECAST Early Summer 120, , ,000 1,003,000 2,703,000 Bowron MRS 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 Fennell power 6,000 9,000 14,000 23,000 39,000 Gates Larkin 24,000 40,000 76, , ,000 Nadina MRJ 24,000 45,000 90, , ,000 Pitt Larkin 42,000 60,000 90, , ,000 Scotch Larkin 300 2,000 12,000 89, ,000 Seymour Larkin ,000 3,000 Misc (Early Shuswap) e R/S 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 24,000 Misc (Taseko) e R/S ,000 1,000 2,000 Misc (Chilliwack) Ricker 17,000 46, , ,000 1,101,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) f R/S 4,000 8,000 14,000 26,000 49,000 Summer 640, ,000 1,677,000 2,962,000 5,023,000 Chilko g power (juv) (Pi) 459, ,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000 Quesnel 4-Ricker-cyc; 5-sibling 6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000 Late Stuart R1C 42,000 86, , , ,000 Stellako R2C 86, , , , ,000 Harrison h & i 3-Ricker(Ei); 4-sibling 33,000 73, , , ,000 Raft h Ricker (PDO) 11,000 16,000 26,000 38,000 62,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j R/S 600 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j R/S 1,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 19,000 Misc (Widgeon) k R/S 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000 Late 41,000 65, , , ,000 (total exlcuding miscellaneous) 33,000 51,000 84, , ,000 Cultus g MRJ 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000 **Late Shuswap Larkin ,000 25,000 76,000 Portage Larkin ,000 2,000 Weaver 4-MRS; 5-sibling 2,000 4,000 8,000 15,000 29,000 xx Birkenhead 4-Ricker (Ei); 5-sibling 30,000 45,000 68, , ,000 Misc non-shuswap k R/S 8,000 14,000 27,000 48,000 84,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 814,000 1,296,000 2,271,000 4,227,000 8,181,000 74% Summer 21
22 Environmental Conditions B.C. restricts fishing amid drought, heat Global News, July 21, 2015 Warm ocean waters affecting BC salmon returns CHEK News, June 20, 2016 Signs suggest warm 'blob' partially to blame for Pacific algae bloom CTV News, August 29,
23 2014 (June-Dec) 2015 (Jan-June) Survival rates of sockeye and pink salmon were negatively correlated with coastal SST in British Columbia and northern Washington, suggesting that warmer coastal temperatures in these regions were associated with decreased survival rates. Mueter et al
24 Pine Island 2015 Temperature C (April July) Pine Island Entrance Island SST (April Entrance June) Island 2015 Latitude Year Temperature C Year Longitude 24
25 Rank Return Forecast EARLY STUART 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Ricker (Ei) 1 42,000 64,000 99, , ,000 Ricker (Pi) 1 44,000 62,000 98, , ,000 Ricker 3 101, , , , ,000 Ricker (PDO) 3 63, , , , ,000 BOWRON 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% MRS 1 4,000 6,000 12,000 23,000 40,000 Ricker (Pi) 2 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000 21,000 Ricker (Ei) 3 3,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 22,000 Ricker 11 4,000 8,000 14,000 25,000 43,000 QUESNEL 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Ricker-cyc 3 260, ,000 1,164,000 2,551,000 4,866,000 Larkin 4 345, ,000 1,059,000 2,058,000 3,501,000 Ricker (Ei) 5 45,000 91, , , ,000 Ricker 6 190, , ,000 1,815,000 3,575,000 RAFT 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Ricker (PDO) 1 14,000 21,000 33,000 57,000 88,000 power 2 16,000 24,000 36,000 59,000 99,000 Ricker 7 18,000 27,000 46,000 75, ,000 WEAVER 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% RJC 3 36,000 90, , ,000 1,809,000 power (juv) (FrD-peak) 6 60, , , ,000 1,029,000 power (juv) (Ei) 8 43,000 84, , , ,000 power(juv) 12 53, , , ,000 1,058,000 CULTUS 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% MRJ 1 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000 Power (juv) (FrD-peak) 2 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 16,000 Power (juv) (Pi) 3 1,000 1,000 3,000 6,000 13,000 power(juv) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 13,000 BIRKENHEAD 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Ricker (Ei) 1 42,000 71, , , ,000 Ricker 2 66, , , , ,000 RAC 2 47, , , ,000 1,531,000 Ricker (Pi) 4 50,000 85, , , ,000 TSA 4 56, , , ,000 1,841,000 25
26 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts 26
27 Cycle average: 8.9 million 1.3M 4.4M 2.3M 8.9M 17.6M Total Forecast Total 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Probability Millions level forecasts 27
28 100K Early Stuart 40K 250K Early Stuart 2% Early Summer 100K 300K Early Summer 2M 8% Summer 1.1M 3.4M 12.6M Summer 76% Late 100K 500K 2.8M Late 13% Total Forecast 1.3M 4.4M Total Cycle average: 8.9 million 2.3M 8.9M 17.6M 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Probability Millions level forecasts 28
29 15% 76% 48% 28% Run timing group A B F G H I J K L Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Stocks Forecast Model b all cycles c 2017 cycle d 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% * Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 298, ,000 42,000 64,000 99, , ,000 Early Summer , , , ,000 1,971,000 (total excluding miscellaneous) 523, ,000 78, , , ,000 1,444,000 Bowron Ricker (Pi) 37,000 23,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000 21,000 Fennell power * 24,000 12,000 5,000 8,000 14,000 25,000 43,000 Gates Larkin 56,000 46,000 15,000 25,000 49,000 96, ,000 Nadina MRJ 75,000 67,000 19,000 35,000 67, , ,000 Pitt Larkin 71,000 74,000 35,000 52,000 84, , ,000 Scotch Larkin 116,000 22, ,000 9,000 90, ,000 Seymour Larkin 144,000 28,000 2,000 7,000 20,000 71, ,000 Misc (Early Shuswap) e R/S ,000 2,000 7,000 24,000 71,000 Misc (Taseko) e R/S ,000 Misc (Chilliwack) Ricker ,000 28,000 78, , ,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) f R/S ,000 4,000 7,000 13,000 24,000 Summer ,065,000 1,861,000 3,407,000 6,631,000 12,560,000 (total excluding miscellaneous) 3,873,000 6,546,000 1,048,000 1,826,000 3,348,000 6,508,000 12,312,000 Chilko Larkin 1,415, , ,000 1,168,000 2,142,000 4,090,000 7,588,000 Late Stuart power 527,000 1,564, , , , ,000 1,561,000 Quesnel Ricker (Ei) 1,304,000 3,726,000 45,000 91, , , ,000 Stellako Larkin * 466, , , , , , ,000 Harrison h & i 3-Ricker; 4-sibling 130, ,000 52, , , ,000 1,390,000 * Mean Run Size Raft h Ricker (PDO) 31,000 26,000 14,000 21,000 33,000 57,000 88,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j R/S ,000 5,000 8,000 17,000 34,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j R/S ,000 28,000 47,000 98, ,000 Misc (Widgeon) k R/S ,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 15,000 Late , , ,000 1,292,000 2,849,000 (total exlcuding miscellaneous) 3,171, , , , ,000 1,244,000 2,765,000 Cultus g Power (juv) (Pi) 37,000 14,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 6,000 13,000 **Late Shuswap Larkin 2,409, ,000 12,000 58, , ,000 1,027,000 Portage Larkin 41,000 45,000 8,000 20,000 51, , ,000 Weaver power (juv) (Ei) 332, ,000 43,000 84, , , ,000 xx Birkenhead Ricker (Ei) 352, ,000 42,000 71, , , ,000 * * * Misc non-shuswap k R/S ,000 13,000 26,000 48,000 84,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON ,315,000 2,338,000 4,432,000 8,873,000 17,633,000 (TOTAL excluding miscellaneous) 7,865,000 8,409,000 1,274,000 2,256,000 4,254,000 8,473,000 16,774,000 PINK SALMON Power (fry)-sss 12,400,000 4,447,000 6,177,000 8,693,000 12,353,000 16,682,000 29
30 2015 FORECAST 68% Summer Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 (total excluding miscellaneous) 1,693,000 2,666,000 4,648,000 8,710,000 16,406,000 Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54, , ,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108, , , ,000 1,421,000 Stellako Larkin 186, , , , , FORECAST 74% Summer Summer 640, ,000 1,677,000 2,962,000 5,023,000 Chilko g power (juv) (Pi) 459, ,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000 Quesnel 4-Ricker-cyc; 5-sibling 6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000 Late Stuart R1C 42,000 86, , , ,000 Stellako R2C 86, , , , , FORECAST 77% Summer Summer ,065,000 1,861,000 3,407,000 6,631,000 12,560,000 (total excluding miscellaneous) 3,873,000 6,546,000 1,048,000 1,826,000 3,348,000 6,508,000 12,312,000 Chilko Larkin 1,415, , ,000 1,168,000 2,142,000 4,090,000 7,588,000 Late Stuart power 527,000 1,564, , , , ,000 1,561,000 Quesnel Ricker (Ei) 1,304,000 3,726,000 45,000 91, , , ,000 Stellako Larkin 466, , , , , , ,000 H i h & i 3 Ri k 4 ibli 30
31 Chilko Sockeye 48% of the total forecast 31
32 No smolt estimate for the 2015 outmigration (2013 brood year) Chilko 2010 Effective Female Spawners Brood Year 32
33 Rank Return Forecast CHILKO 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% power (juv) (Pi) 1 Larkin 1 663,000 1,168,000 2,142,000 4,090,000 7,588,000 power (juv) 3 power (juv) (FrD-peak) 4 power (juv) (PDO) 5 MRJ 6 Ricker-cyc 7 277, , ,000 1,810,000 3,763,000 power (juv) (FrD-mean) 8 RJC 9 Ricker (FrD-mean) , ,000 1,531,000 2,523,000 3,982,000 power (juv) (Ei) 11 RJ2 12 Ricker , ,000 1,508,000 2,604,000 3,998,000 33
34 Quesnel Sockeye 4% of the total forecast Photo courtesy of Plato Island Resort 34
35 Effective Female Spawners QUESNEL Quesnel 2013: 100K Brood Year QUESNEL 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% R1C 1 66, , , ,000 1,296,000 R2C 2 45, , , ,000 1,387,000 Ricker-cyc 3 260, ,000 1,164,000 2,551,000 4,866,000 Larkin 4 345, ,000 1,059,000 2,058,000 3,501,000 Ricker (Ei) 5 45,000 91, , , ,000 Ricker 6 190, , ,000 1,815,000 3,575,000 35
36 Harrison Sockeye 6% of the total forecast 36
37 Harrison Sockeye Escapement average: 150,000 EFS Escapement (Millions) average: 6,000 EFS Year Age4: 78K Age3: 238K 37
38 Fraser Sockeye Conclusions Low numbers of Sockeye are expected in 2017 (p50 forecast: 4.5 M compared to cycle average: 8.4 M) Returns have not exceeded p50 in last 12 years (exl. 2010) Chilko forecast (48% of total at p50) has greater uncertainty due to large escapement in 2013 and
39 Fraser Sockeye Conclusions Conclusions Northeast Pacific has been extremely warm: 2014 moved coastal Warm conditions incorporated into some forecasts indicate reduced survival; accounts for only 15% of the total forecast Very low survival of Summer-run stocks (76% of total) in 2015 (OEY 2013) and 2016 (OEY 2014) Emphasis on the 25% probability level recommended, particularly for Summer-run stocks 39
40 Acknowledgments DFO: Sockeye Stock Assessment Program Fisheries Management Salmonid Enhancement Program Carrier Sekani Tribal Council Tl azt en Nation Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance Tsilhqot in National Government N Quatqua Fisheries Lil wat First Nations Little Shuswap Indian Band Shuswap Nation Tribal Council / Secwepemc Fisheries Commission Instream Fisheries Research Inc. Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) PSC, Southern Boundary Restoration and Enhancement Fund 40
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