ILBM Special Expert Group Meeting: ILBM beyond WLC13 November 6, 2009 (Friday) Group 3, N. Aladin and M.Nakamura, Group C, ILEC's Role

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1 ILBM Special Expert Group Meeting: ILBM beyond WLC13 November 6, 2009 (Friday) Group 3, N. Aladin and M.Nakamura, Group C, ILEC's Role and Regional Focal Point Initiatives, Preparation of the 5 Lake Briefs: on Ladoga, Chudsko-Pskovskoe, Ilmen, Aral and Caspian N. Aladin & I. Plotnikov Zoological Institute RAS

2 Main milestones of preparation 1. Beginning of preparation, July-August Making special teams for every lake. 3. Report on the progress in the beginning of March 2009 (ILEC, Japan). 4. Next step planning in the end of March 2009 (St. Petersburg, Russia). 5. Report on the progress in the beginning of November 2009 (Wuhan, China).

3 Ladoga Lake Brief is ready 99% Authors: V. Rumyantsev, L. Kudersky, A. Izmailova Compilers, editors, translators: I. Plotnikov, N. Aladin It contains 63 pages in total including 34 figures. Reference list: 34 references. It is quite possible that some illustrations could be electronically rearranged for better understanding. It is definitely needed to make final polishing of the available text in English by native speakers.

4 Chudsko-Pskovskoe Lake Brief is ready 99% Authors: S. Kondratiev, A. Izmaylova, E. Koroleva Compilers, editors, translators: I. Plotnikov, N. Aladin It contains 48 pages in total including 10 figures. Reference list: 17 references. It is quite possible that some illustrations could be electronically rearranged for better understanding. It is definitely needed to make final polishing of the available text in English by native speakers.

5 Ilmen Lake Brief is ready 99% Authors: T. Savenkova, N. Lemeshko, T. Asanova Compilers, editors, translators: A. Izmaylova, I. Plotnikov, N. Aladin It contains 29 pages in total including 4 figures and 3 tables. Reference list: 8 references. It is quite possible that some illustrations could be electronically rearranged for better understanding. It is definitely needed to make final polishing of the available text in English by native speakers.

6 Aral Lake Brief is ready 80% Authors: I. Plotnikov, N. Aladin, P. Micklin, Z. Ermakhanov, L. Zhakova Compilers, editors, translators: I. Plotnikov, N. Aladin It contains 40 pages in total including 8 figures and 6 tables. Reference list is in preparation. It is quite possible that some illustrations could be electronically rearranged for better understanding. It is definitely needed to make final polishing of the available text in English by native speakers.

7 Lake Brief on Aral was discussed with the main participants of special Aral Sea conference that was held in St. Petersburg October 13-15, 15, To the conference came about 70 participants from former USSR (Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan), EU (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Sweden), USA, Japan, Israel and Switzerland. Special Aral Sea declaration was adopted at the end of this conference.

8 St. Petersburg Declaration on the Aral Sea An international conference on the Aral Sea was held in St. Petersburg, Russia, from 12 to 15 October Scientists from the European Union (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Sweden), Israel, Japan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and Uzbekistan who are studying the Aral Sea and related issues as well as on other similar water bodies participated in the meeting. The Declaration below grew out of the presentations and discussions at this meeting and is supported by the scientists whose names appear after it.

9 1. The Aral Sea, a once large terminal lake lying in the deserts of Central Asia, has undergone unprecedented shrinking and salinization since the 1960s. These processes have had serious negative ecologic impacts on the lake and deltas of its two influent rivers. The people living around the lake have also suffered from the sea s destruction that has worsened environmental and health conditions, devastated local economies, and led to social and cultural disruption. 1.

10 2. The Aral has experienced repeated recessions and transgressions over its modern geological history (the past 10 millennia). These have resulted from natural climate change, development of irrigation in the lake s basin during the past 4,000 years, and shift of the major influent river (the Amu Dar ya) from the Aral westward to the Caspian Sea and then back again to the Aral. The last factor, caused by both natural and human forces, appears to have been the primary cause of deep recessions, the most recent of which occurred during medieval times (13th to 16th Centuries). 2.

11 3. Global Warming is real and is causing many severe problems around the globe. However, contrary to recent claims in both the popular press and scientific articles, it has not been a major cause of the Aral s desiccation. The overwhelming reason for the drying of the Aral Sea was the expansion of irrigation in the sea s drainage basin during the Soviet era that went well beyond the point of sustainability. This, in turn, led to a marked decline of river inflow to the lake since the 1960s. Probably well in excess of 80% of the drying of the Aral since the 1960s owes to irrigation, with most of the rest accounted for by natural climate variation. Global warming in recent decades has probably begun to influence the water balance of the Aral and will become more important in the future. 3.

12 4. Diversion (redirection) of Siberian rivers southward to the Aral Sea Basin or the pumping of water from the Caspian to the Aral are not realistic options for solving water problems in Central Asia. They would be too expensive and complicated, would require complex international agreements, and have too many potentially serious environmental consequences. It would be wiser to focus on local and regional solutions to these key issues such as improved efficiency of water use in irrigation and efforts to preserve and partially restore remaining parts of the Aral Sea. 4.

13 5. There is a long and rich history of Aral Sea studies dating from the middle of the 19th Century. Many high-quality, careful and scientifically sound investigations took place in both the days of the Russian Empire and the subsequent Soviet Union. The tendency in some quarters to assert that real studies on the Aral only began in the current century when cooperation developed between scientists from the West and East is unfortunate, incorrect and incomplete. 5.

14 6. Reports of the Aral Sea s death are premature. Substantial parts of the lake remain. The Small (north) Aral Sea has been partially, and so far very successfully, restored. Although the Eastern Basin of the Large Aral is lost, the Western Basin can be preserved as can (and are) major parts of the Syr and Amu Dar ya deltas. The Aral Sea of the 1960s is gone, but it is feasible to preserve a much smaller Aral consisting of two sizable lakes that have ecological and economic value. Furthermore, in the more distant future it may be possible to substantially increase inflow to the sea and restore the Aral to near its former size. This has happened in the past and it could be possible again. 6.

15 7. A new research approach is needed for the future study of the Aral Sea and surrounding region. It should be a balance of theoretical and applied science and involve collaboration of scientists from different disciplines and countries. Special efforts should be made to attract and engage younger generation scientists and researchers to the Aral Sea problems in order to secure long-term scientific commitment and continued international dialogue. XXI century newcomers to Aral Sea studies should not ignore the wealth of data and information from the Tsarist and Soviet eras. IFAS (International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea) should co-operate operate with leading scientists all over the World including those from former USSR. 7.

16 8. It is recommended that an international focusing on the Aral Sea ecosystem aimed at a comprehensive view should be initiated. The establishment of international committee is urgently required for the following objectives: 8. 1) Analysis of available data as background for design of future development of the Aral Sea and its drainage basin. 2) The committee should include scientist from relevant disciplines: limnology, terrestrial ecology, botany and zoology, ornithology, hydrology, agronomy, soil sciences, meteorology, economy, ichthyology, etc. 3) Local politicians, stake holders and administrators as committee members are recommended. 4) The committee will formulate future scopes for appropriate development. 5) To draw the attention of the international communities and foundations for fund rising. It is also recommended to establish a research team living in the vicinity of the Aral Sea to carry out a long term research master-plan. The construction of a modern laboratory well equipped on site to implement the previously proposed directions for future development.

17 Caspian Lake Brief is ready 70% Authors: I. Plotnikov, N. Aladin, A. Bolshov Compilers, editors, translators: I. Plotnikov, N. Aladin It contains 110 pages in total including 29 figures and 8 tables. Reference list: 130 references. It is quite possible that some illustrations could be electronically rearranged for better understanding. It is definitely needed to make final polishing of the available text in English by native speakers.

18 Lake Brief on Caspian Sea will be discussed with participants of special Caspian Sea conference that will be held in Astrakhan October-November To the conference expected to come about 200 participants from former USSR, EU, USA, Japan, Iran, etc. Special Caspian Sea declaration will be adopted at the end of this conference.

19 We hope to have support from project leaders in all our main activities in further preparation of 5 Lake Briefs: on Ladoga, Chudsko-Pskovskoe, Ilmen, Aral and Caspian planned for forthcoming We hope to report about more progress in our work during next ILBM Special Expert Group Meeting in We hope to have project leaders with us in Russian Federation during forthcoming meetings in 2010 related to ILBM Project: Baltic Sea Days international conference, March 2010; Ladoga Pskovsko-Chudskoe Ilmen Lakes national conference, July 2010; Caspian Sea international conference, November 2010.

20 Thank you for your attention and welcome to conferences in Russian Federation next year