2 December 2016 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife
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1 2 December 2016 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife
2 Model Updates from November Incorporate 2016 fisheries 2
3 Angler Trips Transition vs Without Policy 500 Angler Trips (1,000s) w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd Spring Summer Fall 3
4 Ex vessel Value Transition vs Without Policy 7.0 Ex Vessel $ (million) Mainstem Sp/Su Mainstem Fall 4 5 MS Fall, other SAFE Sp/Su SAFE Fall 0.0 w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd
5 Model Updates from November Incorporate 2016 fisheries Update Local Personal Income Impact using PFMC s IO-PAC values 5
6 Economic Modeling Updates New model and updated multipliers available from PFMC (same source as 2013). Recreational: $65.35 per private trip, $ per for hire trip For hire component of angler trip total is unknown and scenario outputs are based only on private trips ($65.35) Table provided to gauge sensitivity of overall output to different assumptions of % of the for hire component Commercial: $1.409 (Fisher $1.09 per ex-vessel $ + processor $0.32 per ex-vessel $) 6
7 Economic Modeling Updates % of Angler trips = For Hire % Increase in recreational LPII 5% 12% 10% 24% 15% 36% 20% 48% 7
8 Model Updates from November Incorporate 2016 fisheries Update Local Personal Income Impact using PFMC s IO-PAC values Additional work on full implementation with purse seine Full hatchery recruitment out-years (thru 2022) Fishery specific contribution to various scenarios 8
9 Outputs for Today (see handouts for additional requested details) No policy update for 2016 data Full implementation (with non-msf purse seine) update 2016 data, complete analysis Rebalanced option update 2016 data Freeze Transition update 2016 data Increased ex-vessel scenario new, includes 2016 data 9
10 Full Policy Implementation (No action) Modeled as: Spring 80/20, no mainstem commercial fishery Summer 98/2, no mainstem commercial fishery REVISED Fall Chinook 80/20, MS commercial all non-mark-selective Zone 4-5 purse seine; no alternative gear in Zones 1-3 Does NOT include operating costs, feasibility, etc. on Z4-5 purse seines Preliminary - range of potential ex-vessel values Lower end - data for purse seines in Z4-5 assumptions (adjustments to Non-MSF, etc.) need to be evaluated Upper end - if purse seines are about equivalent to gillnet MORE ANALYSIS NEEDED Coho, mainstem with tangle nets in Zones 1-3 Current plan SAFE releases, SAB releases at 1.44 million (recent average SABs) Angler trips Ex Vessel Value Appendix C Base 350,400 $3.86 M Appendix C ,450 $4.25 M No Policy 406, ,600 $6.18 $5.93 M Full Policy 437, ,000 $3.7 $4.7 $3.77 M 10
11 Full Policy Implementation (No action) Meets: Phase out gillnets in mainstem fisheries Recreational fishery mainstem priority Does not meet: Does not enhance viability of commercial fisheries Does not optimize economics for region Conservation benefits inadequate 11
12 Adaptive Management Freeze Transition Modeled as: Spring 70/30, MS commercial fishery, gillnet allowed in late spring if impacts available Summer 70/30, MS commercial fishery with gillnet allowed Fall Chinook 70/30, MS commercial fishery with gillnet in Z4-5, MS seine fishery as in transition years, 6 Coho gillnet and Coho tangle net as in transition years Current plan SAFE releases, SAB releases at 1.44 million (recent average SABs) Angler trips Ex Vessel Value Appendix C Base 350,400 $3.86 M Appendix C ,450 $4.25 M No Policy 406, ,600 $6.18 $5.93 M Freeze Transition 422, ,200 $5.84 $6.10 M 12
13 Adaptive Management Freeze Transition Meets: More assurance of viability for commercial fisheries More recreational fishery mainstem priority than without policy Higher economic returns for region than no or full policy Does not meet: Conservation benefits inadequate Less recreational priority than planned Does not phase out gillnets in any mainstem fisheries 13
14 Adaptive Management Rebalance Plan (staff recommendation) Modeled as: Spring 80/20, small MS commercial fishery w/ tangle nets post-update Summer 80/20, MS commercial fishery with selective gear to be developed by fleet with agency assistance Fall Chinook 70/30, MS commercial fishery with gillnet in Z4-5 and Coho tangle net in Z 1-3. Implementation of fall conservation fishery Current plan SAFE releases, SAB releases at 1.44 million continue Addition of 500K spring Chinook to Gnat Cr., 250K each to Westport Sl. (OR) and Coal Cr. (WA, shifted from Cathlamet). Allow barbed hooks in Willamette R. and off-channel sport Remove Youngs Bay sport closure 14
15 Adaptive Management Rebalance Plan (staff recommendation) Angler trips Ex Vessel Value Appendix C Base 350,400 $3.86 M Appendix C ,450 $4.25 M No Policy 406, ,600 $6.18 $5.93 M Rebalance 427, ,800 $5.80 $5.77 M* Ex-vessel value calculated in 2022 to capture returns of additional off-channel hatchery production Mean ex-vessel for = $5.48 $5.43 M 15
16 Adaptive Management Rebalance Plan (staff recommendation) Meets: More recreational fishery mainstem priority than without policy or transition More assurance of viability for commercial fisheries than full implementation Commercial economics approach transition by 2022 Gillnets removed in spring and summer, use in fall limited Higher conservation performance Higher economic returns for region over no or full policy Does not meet: Less recreational priority than full implementation Gillnets remain in fall Less ex-vessel value than without policy Takes additional time to accrue full commercial benefits 16
17 Positive Ex Vessel vs No Policy Modeled as: Spring 80/20, small MS commercial fishery with tangle nets Summer 80/20, MS commercial fishery with large mesh gillnets Fall Chinook 67/33, MS commercial fishery with gillnet in Z4-5 and Coho tangle net in Z 1-3. Implementation of fall conservation fishery Current plan SAFE releases, SAB releases at 1.44 million continue Addition of 500K spring Chinook to Gnat Cr., 250K each to Westport Sl. (OR) and Coal Cr. (WA, shifted from Cathlamet). Allow barbed hooks in Willamette R. and off-channel sport Remove Youngs Bay sport closure 17
18 Positive Ex Vessel vs No Policy Angler trips Ex Vessel Value Appendix C Base 350,400 $3.86 M Appendix C ,450 $4.25 M No Policy 406, ,600 $6.18 $5.93 M Positive Ex Vessel 422,300 $6.04 M* Ex-vessel value calculated in 2022 to capture returns of additional off-channel hatchery production Mean ex-vessel for = $5.70 M 18
19 Positive Ex Vessel vs No Policy Meets: Commercial Ex-Vessel enhanced over no-policy scenario Gillnets removed in spring More recreational fishery mainstem priority than without policy or transition Higher economic returns for region than no or full policy Does not meet: Conservation benefits less than rebalanced option Less recreational priority than planned Gillnets remain in summer and fall Takes additional time to accrue full commercial benefits 19
20 Next steps Oregon ODFW staff assess any additional OFWC requests January OFWC hearing for potential rulemaking Washington December WFWC hearing for presentation and public testimony January WFWC hearing for potential rulemaking Oregon staff recommends at least one more Joint FWC subgroup meeting prior to rulemaking 20
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