2015 Adult Returns and 2016 Expectations Columbia River Preliminary Draft December 14, 2015
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1 2015 Adult Returns and 2016 Expectations Columbia River Preliminary Draft December 14, 2015 Adult Returns 2015 Results 2016 Expectations Willamette Spring (includes jacks) 55,400 predicted return to CR (18% wild) 87,100 actual return to CR (16% wild) jack return (2,539) ~10-year avg. (2,100) 81,040 actual return to Willamette R. 53,088 count at falls 8,446 actual return to Clackamas 3,543 Clackamas Hatchery return 70,100 predicted return to CR Including 1,400 jacks and 57,500 hatchery adults 18% wild adult return 8,300 Clackamas return Cowlitz River 11,200 predicted adult return vs. 23,800 actual 25,100 predicted Kalama River 1,900 predicted adult return vs. 3,100 actual 4,900 predicted Lewis River 1,100 predicted adult return vs. 1,000 actual 1,100 predicted Upriver Spring Upper Columbia Summer Sockeye Upriver Summer Steelhead Bright Fall Tule Fall Coho 232,500 predicted adult return 289,000 actual return (124% of forecast) 18,100 jacks (8 th highest since 1980) 73,000 predicted adult return ~126,800 actual return (174% of forecast) ~12,900 jacks (5 th highest since 1979) Adult mark rate BON 394,000 predicted return 512,500 actual return (3 rd highest on record) High pre-spawn mortality 312,200 predicted return at Bonneville Dam 261,400 counted at Bonneville Well below 10-year average (348K) 664,700 predicted adult return Preliminary returns estimated at 969,400 (146% of forecast; 2 nd highest since 1964) 75,600 Jacks at BON 9 th highest since ,600 predicted adult return Preliminary returns estimated at 288,800 (108% of forecast) 539,600 predicted adult return Actual return well below prediction 188,800 predicted If correct, would be 91% of recent 10-year ave. return 93,300 predicted Mark rate 40-60% 101,600 predicted, including 2,100 Snake River stock Above average and similar to recent returns Similar to recent years Reduced jack return in 2015 Shad 1.9 million run vs.10-yr average of 3.1 million Strong run expected Smelt Apparently a good return (11.4 M lbs based on spawning stock biomass (SSB)), but less than 2015 White Sturgeon Legal estimate 143,900 (vs. 131,000 in 2014) Adult abundance and recruitment remain low Indicators mixed; modest run expected Legal projection 147,100 1
2 Willamette River Spring Lower Willamette Clackamas River Recreational Fisheries 2015 Results 2016 Expectations Open 7 days/week under permanent regs 94,355 angler trips (Mar 2-June 21) 13,324 adults kept (1,870 released) 88% mark rate 3,306 angler trips below River Mill Dam 412 adults kept (52 released) Washington Tributary Spring Cowlitz River 7 days/week; 2 fish bag; 3 adults starting May 17 3,700 adults kept Kalama River 7 days/week; 1 fish bag; 2 adults starting May 17 1,000 adults kept Lewis River Closed March 1 No adults kept Columbia River Fisheries Lower Columbia Spring Season Bonn to OR/WA border Spring Season Spring open: B10-I-5 Bridge; Jan-Feb; 7 d/wk; 2 bag (perm rules) B10-BON: Mar 1-Apr 11 and Apr 16, Bank only Beacon R to BON Closed Tuesdays (3/24, 3/31, 4/7) Tongue Point-BON: May 2-3, 9 and Bank only Beacon R to BON Tongue Point-BON May 30-June 15 One bag (except 2 fish effective 6/3) 151,173 angler trips 19,586 adult kept (5,052 released) 1,181 steelhead kept (724 released) retention open 74 days (69%) of 107 days from Mar 1 Jun 15 Spring open: Mar 16-May 10, and May 28-June 15 One bag through 6/2, 2 fish bag 6/3-15 9,936 angler trips 1,646 adult kept (500 released) Fishery restrictions likely Season Season Snake River Spring Season Spring open: Four sections open 3d/wk Staggered openings beginning Apr 19, all sections closed by May 12 Re-opened June ,900 adult kept (383 released) Season 2
3 Columbia River Recreational Fisheries (continued) Summer Season Summer open: Jun 16-July 31 Astoria Bridge to OR/WA border Bag limit: 2 hatchery June 16-July 2 2 adults/one July ,555 angler trips below BON, : 5,928 adults kept (record); 1,491 released Sockeye: 958 kept (436 released) Steelhead: 4,560 kept (3,068 released) Jun 16-Jul 31 BON to OR/WA border 622 adults kept (162 released) Jun 16-Jul 31 OR/WA border to PRD 115 adults kept (131 released) Jul 1-Aug 31 upstream of PRD Bag limit: 2 hatchery Upstream of PRD (includes tributaries): 4,121 kept (4,678 released) 27,360 sockeye kept Fall Season Buoy 10 Fall Season LCR Sport Fall Season BON- Hwy 395 Sturgeon Shad Fall open: Aug 1-23 (MSF Aug 24-28) 1 bag Oct 1-Dec 31 2 bag Coho retention open entire season 108,213 angler trips 36,422 kept (2 nd highest); (23,553 rel.) 36,859 Coho kept (23,196 released) Fall open: Tongue Pt.-Warrior R: Aug 1-Sep 7, Sep 8-14 (MSF); 1 bag Oct 1-Dec bag Warrior R. to BON: Aug 1-Dec bag to Steamboat 3 bag Steamboat - BON Party Boat rules in effect all season 131,374 angler trips 41,525 adult kept (record; 6,045 rel) 995 Coho kept (606 released) 4,212 steelhead kept (2,605 released) Fall open: Aug 1-Dec 31; 2 bag 13,300 kept Closed to retention except upstream of Bonneville Dam and Willamette Falls 12,000 trips; 47,300 kept in LCR 4,516 trips; 18,224 kept in LWR (through 6/28) Smelt Cowlitz open 2 days Feb 7 and 14 Sandy open 2 days Mar 7 and 15 ~290,800 pounds landed Season at NOF Allocation (70/30) Season at NOF 2016 objectives: retention through Labor Day LCR tules remain a constraint Season at NOF 2016 objectives: TP-WR thru Sept 7, then one week MSF (Sep 8-14) WR-BON - full season LCR tules remain a constraint Similar to recent years Large population No changes to fishery 3
4 Columbia River Commercial Fisheries 2015 Results 2016 Expectations Columbia River Fisheries Winter Sturgeon No retention in 2015 Winter/Spring 8 periods Mar 31-June 11 (89-hrs); All Z1-5 5 tangle net (Mar 31-May 13) 3 large mesh (May 27-June 11) 6,460 adult hatchery (3,738 released) 771 jacks; 55 sockeye Summer 3 periods (June 17- July 22); 8-12 hrs each Zones 1-5; large mesh gear (8 min.) 3,938, 329 sockeye August (Early Fall) Late Fall Commercial Seine Shad Aug 9 31, 10 periods; 9 hrs ea (4 on 8/31) Zones 4-5; 9 min mesh deliveries per period 33,421 CHF; 155 Coho directed: 4 periods Sep 15-28, Z4-5, 8, 9-10 hrs ea 1 period Oct 8, Z1-5, 8-inch, 10 hrs Constrained by Wild B STH impacts Coho directed (Z 1-3): 3 periods Oct 1-7; tangle net (MSF) 2 periods Oct 12-20; 6 max. 47,589 CHF; 4,002 coho Pilot Research Seine Fishery (MSF) 23 periods Aug 24 Sep 30, hrs ea. 9 permits issued (5 beach + 4 purse) 6 permits with landings: - 2 beach; 4 purse (2 boats) Landing limits & observation program 2,993 (230 jacks) kept 587 Coho (23 jacks) kept 4,237, 734 Coho, 477 steelhead rel. 2S fishery open per permanent regulations May 10-Jun 20, 569 shad (record low) No experimental gear permits issued Smelt Mainstem only; Feb 2-26, 2d/wk, Z ,546 pounds landed Select Area Fisheries Winter/Spring Summer (YB only) Fall Above average season Winter Spring 10,997 (best since 2010) Similar to recent 5-year average 1,779 Below average season 18,227 (79% of 5-year ave) 28,800 Coho (42% of 5-year ave) 4 Allocation (70/30) LCR tules remain a constraint LCR tules remain a constraint Wild B STH can be a constraint Area 2S fishery; experimental gear permits possible ~9,200 predicted return Season structure similar to 2015 Season structure similar to 2015 Season structure similar to 2015
5 Columbia River Process Schedule (Preliminary Draft) Dec 2, p-6p Dec 3, a-1p Columbia River Recreational Advisor Group meeting LCR white sturgeon update Smelt update 2015 fishery review Columbia River Commercial Advisor Group meeting LCR white sturgeon update Smelt update 2015 fisheries review NW Region Clackamas, OR City Hall Rainier, OR Dec 3, 2015 Columbia River Fisherman s Protective Union Humps Clatskanie, OR Dec 14, p-3p Dec 15, p-4p Jan 12, 2016 Jan Jan 13, p-8:30p Jan 22-23, 2016 Jan 27, a (Feb or Mar 18) Staff meeting with Salmon for All 2015 results and 2016 expectations Staff meeting with Northwest Sport Fishing Industry Assoc results and 2016 expectations Columbia River Commercial Advisor Group Meeting Spring and summer Columbia River Recreational Advisor Group Meeting Spring and summer Select Area Fisheries Public Meeting 2015 results; 2016 season structure discussion Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission Review of Lower Columbia River Sturgeon Management Policy C-3001 Briefing (tentative) Columbia River Fishery Management/Reform Policy C Briefing (tentative) CR Compact/Joint State Hearing Commercial winter/spring fishing plans SAFE commercial fisheries Recreational salmon Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission Columbia River Fishery Management/Reform Briefing Lower Columbia River White Sturgeon - Briefing Grace Episcopal Church Astoria, OR NW Region Clackamas, OR City Hall Rainier, OR WDFW Holiday Inn Astoria, OR Washington State School for the Blind See Ocean Process for 2016 North of Falcon (NOF) schedule 5
6 2016 Ocean Fishery Process Schedule (Preliminary Draft) (Late Feb) (Late Feb) Mar 9-14 Ocean Salmon Industry Group 2016 forecasts Initial discussions of 2016 season options WDFW Public Meeting 2016 forecasts and fishing opportunities Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) Adopt initial 2016 ocean salmon options for public review Hallmark Resort Hotel Newport, OR (tentative) Likely WDFW HQ Olympia, WA Double Tree Hotel Sacramento, CA Mid-March (Mar 16?) 2016 Columbia R North of Falcon Mar XX Mar 28 (Late Mar) (Early April) Apr 9-14 Apr 22 North of Falcon #1 (Public Meetings) Salmon season negotiations for Columbia River, Puget Sound, Willapa Bay, Grays Harbor, and ocean areas north of Cape Falcon, OR PFMC Public Options Hearing Public input on 2016 season options North of Falcon #2 (Public Meetings) Mar XX - WDFW w/tribes Mar XX - WDFW w/puget Sound and PS North of Falcon #2 (Public Meetings) Apr XX - Ocean and Columbia River Apr XX - Grays Harbor Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) Adopt 2016 ocean salmon fishery regulations Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission Adopt state water ocean salmon fishery regulations Likely WDFW HQ Olympia, WA Likely Red Lion Hotel Coos Bay, OR Likely Embassy Suites Lynwood, WA Likely WDFW HQ Olympia, WA Hilton Hotel 6
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