Pay the Loser. Pay the Loser. By Steve Davidson.

Transcription

1 Pay the Loser. By Steve Davidson. Hi, welcome to Pay the Loser. What you are about to discover will blow you away. This is about to change the way you will invest in the future whether your preference is the horses, sport, or whatever. Before the 1960s, the SP Bookies were the go. Then when the government decided to take more money of the working class, they we already hitting the beer& cigarettes. Some bright spark said what about the punt, let's get them there also. So for the last 40 years they have done very well. Well that is fast changing.. how? The words that will and should excite you are BETTING EXCHANGES. What are betting exchanges I hear you ask? Well they are quite new and have a growing following. The basic principle is that they provide the platform for the betting public to exchange bets around the world. The one that I am most familiar with is Betfair check it out here BETFAIR. Betfair now handles $150 million in bets per week. It is based in the UK, however it as close as your computer. It carries the Queen of England Seal of Approval. It has an Australia Phone number also. You bet in Australian dollars or what ever currency best suits you. You can bet on Australian Races (Gallops) usually 5 or 6 days a week. Please note that if you are physically in New South Wales it is illegal to use Betfair or any overseas betting office. This is very hard to enforce. This only applies to Horse Racing in Australia. Races in the UK check out this site RACING UK you can get the odds and form. Imagine place your bets go to bed. Wake up at check the results on the net in the morning. That way no there is no interference to your day. You can bet on South Africa and the USA l Page 1

2 also. Pay the Loser So to re cap, with Betting Exchanges there is no odds maker or bookie. The punters set the market. Here is an example: Salis 26th Jun - 23:05 1m2f Hcap View P&L Total selections: 7 Flight Of Esteem Barry Island Paso Doble Giunchiglio Fast Foil Seal Of Office Smyslov So if you look at Flight Of Esteem you can back it at $3.95. Or lay the bet (back against the horse winning) at $4.10. So if any horse other than Flight Of Esteem win we will get the stake of the punter that we matched the bet to. In our case it would be $10 if it Page 2

3 was at the start of a series. If the horse won we would have had to pay $29.50, we don't pay the whole $39.50 as this includes the punter stake of $ In plan I am going to show you we would never had taken this bet as the highest price horse we would use is 6/4 ($2.50) this would have meant that we would have to pay a maximum of $1.50 per $1.00 in the above example it would mean $15.00 for a $10.00 losing bet (the horse wins.) The Plan. The plan is based on what the mug Punter is all about. Except we work in reverse.. Let me explain we are not backing the horses. We are laying them we are the bookie. This means we have the field running for us not the short price favourite. We are betting on the favourite to lose. We know that the dead certs get beaten, hey we have backed them. So here are the rules, and you can use these any where in the world. We are looking for the races with untried and average horses. You won't bet Melbourne Cups, Kentucky Derby, they are have way to much form exposed and if there were odds on or close they would most likely win. No we are chasing the no hopers, Maidens, flighty 2 years olds, races with patchy form and odds on or at least no better than 6/4 ($2.50). How is this so. Well, a lot of these races have over hyped horses starting, showing heaps of promise high price tags high profile trainers Page 3

4 showing heaps of promise, high price tags, high profile trainers, press pushes them. And bookies create false favourites to get mug punters dollars. These are the horses we want to lay (back against them winning.) OK the Rules. 1. Horse must be 6/4 ($2.50) or under. No exception!! 2. No handicap races unless very little form is exposed. 3. Races we are interested in are, 2 year olds, Maidens (have not won a race), and any races with no real form exposed. In the UK there are a lot of maiden hurdle races. Forget the country you live in.you can bet on the races in four or five countries and you can find all the info on the net. 4. Watch for horses that are favourites, and have not run over the distance, or on the track condition (eg Heavy,slow, fast etc) that is different to what the horse has been running on. Or coming back from a spell. 5. Midweek races, both in the city and country are where we will find most of our race. 6. We are looking for false favourites with no track record, they are out there every day. We have the field running for us, except for the favourite. So as I stated at the start of the page, we are backing against the mug punter. We are in the position of picking the poor races to bet in. We are in a better position than the bookies in that we don't have to bet on every horse or every race Page 4

5 don t have to bet on every horse or every race. Remember that we don't need to study the form because it is not there, and we know form students, lose more than they win. Bookies drive better cars. The Ultimate Staking Plan Our staking plan is based on capitalising on winning streaks. The theory behind it is about trying to think like a mug punter. When you back a horse and lose your instinct is to try and recoup (at least some of your losses quickly and you increase your stake and back the favourite in the next race. If it loses you will want to do the same again to even higher stakes and so on until you have no money left. If you do eventually find a winner you will more than likely still be down anyway because the stakes needed to breakeven when backing odds-on would need to have been huge to yield such a return. My suggestion is that after each winner for us as a layer (i.e. a loss for the poor value backer) we increase our stake by 1/2 a point OF OUR NORMAL STAKE until we get a loser when we revert back to staking 1pt + the losses incurred from the last bet. PLEASE NOTE HERE IT IS NOT THE LOSSES INCURRED FROM LAYING AT GREATER THAN 1PT IT IS THE LOSSES THAT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED HAD WE ONLY LAYED AT 1PT. Consider the following course of events: (Ignoring commission of 5% for a winning bet as charged by betting exchanges.) Page 5

6 (g g g g y g g ) To be clear: W = A win for us (i.e. favourite loses) L = A loss fo us (i.e. favourite wins) For me 1 point = $10 Bet No. Stake Outcome P/L Level Stakes P/L 1 10 L (4/5)($1.80) (10+8) W (10*1.5) W (10*2) W (10*2.5) L (5/6)($1.83) ( ) L (Evens) ($2.00) ( ) W (10*1.5) L (4/7) ($1.57) TOTAL P/L I hope the method is clear, it is really quite simple but difficult to explain. Here is the explanation in full: Bet 1 1 Point as normal which equals $10 for me. Lets say it loses at odds layed of equivalent 4/5(1.80). We have to pay $8 Bet 2 The next bet equals 1 point ($10) plus loss on last race ($8) = $18. The horse loses and we i $18 Page 6

7 win $18. Pay the Loser Bet 3 After a winner for us we increase stake by half a point on our normal 1 point stake i.e. 1.5points =$15. The horse loses and we win $15 Bet 4 Again an increase in stake by another half a point i.e. 2points =$20. The horse loses we win $20 Bet 5 Increase stake again by half point now 2.5points =$25. Horse wins at odds of 5/6(1.83), we lose $16.67 Bet 6 (Slightly more complicated) We now increase the normal stake of 1 point + the losses incurred on the previous horse HOWEVER THIS IS THE LOSS THAT WE WOULD HAVE INCURRED IF WE HAD ONLY STAKED 1 POINT i.e. $10 at 5/6(1.80) = $8.33 Therefore stake = $10 + $8.33 =$18.33 The horse wins at even money and we pay out $18.33 Bet 7 Stake equals loss on previous 2 races + normal $10 stake = $36.66 Horse loses, we win $36.66 Bet 8 After our previous winner we again raise our normal stake of 1 point by half a point to 1.5points =$15. The horse wins at 4/7($1.57) and we lose $8.57 From using this method we are in profit by $ Level stakes profit is $7.97. Not much you may say but this is only 2 days worth of bets at only a 50% strike rate (4 winners and 4 losers at average payout of about 4/5). At a higher strike rate the system should yield even higher profits. Page 7

8 You could use column betting so that you are not having follow each race. This would allow you to place your bets early, sort of set and forget. You run three columns, the 1st column would have $10, as would the 2nd and 3rd one. So your first three bets would at $10. After they have raced you would follow the procedure as shown above. So if column one was a winner you would place 1.5 points for the lay in our example $ If column two was a winner you would repeat as column one, however if it was a loser (the horse won at 4/5) you would stake 1pt plus $8.00 lost, equals $18.00 stake. I think you should see the procedure. Level Stakes. (Safe and you would be wise to start here) This program is so powerful, that you can make good money on level stakes. If your bank is $200 start with a flat stake of $6.00aud as this is the minimum bet on Betfair. Once your reach $400 increase your bank to $12.00, and then as your bank doubles double your stake. This will make you a darn good living. Stick with it, don't risk higher odds nothing over $2.50, don't lay above it. More On Betfair. WHAT'S NEW AT BETFAIR? Page 8

9 Australian customers please phone for Telephone Betting and Helpdesk. JOIN THE BETFAIR REVOLUTION TODAY! Best odds: At Betfair you get the best odds as you are betting against other punters not against a traditional bookmaker. Odds are consistently around 20% better - if you don't believe us, then check out our prices.. Safe & secure: As the world's largest online betting company with a turnover exceeding $150m per week, your money is safe with us. Moreover, we ringfence all client deposits in a separate company and refer all disputes to the Independent Betting Arbitration Service (IBAS) in the UK. Offer odds to others: If you can't pick a winning horse/team, then find one you think will lose. Offer odds to others against an outcome. Click here to go to BETFAIR Decimal odds: Calculating your return has never been easier. If you bet $10 at 2.1 you get $21 back including your stake. Revolutionising betting: Betfair has taken the betting world by storm: more than 100 articles have been written about us in the UK national, sports and international press. To set up and account will take around 2 minutes and you can deposit by credit card. You can have your winnings deposited back into your credit card. There are other betting exchanges however this is the one I use. This type of betting is so powerful, that the NSW government has outlawed using it. So if you are physically in the State of New South Wales Australia, you are forbidden by law to bet on Australian Races. However it is impossible to police. Page 9

10 This appeared in the paper on July 3rd, In the Sydney Daily Telegraph page 2. As you can see the Government are running scared. As on betfair you pay a maximum of 5% commission on winning bets. The TAB takes 15% you are at the least 10% better off. Thank you for allowing me to share this exciting concept with you. Form as you would will see it on Racing UK. GOODWOOD 29 Jun :30 EBF Celer Et Audax Maiden Stakes (Class D) (2yo) 7 run Winner 4, f GD-FM No. Form Horse Trainer Wgt Jockey PM 1(2) Hamaasy J L Dunlop G Carter - 2(1) 24 Kings Point 22 R Hannon Dane O Neill 102 Love Triangle D R C 3(4) Elsworth C Catlin 87 4(6) Red Lancer SLKeightley S Whitworth - Page 10

11 () g y Whitgift Rock 5(3) S Dow R L Moore(3) 71 Mrs A J 6(5) 6 Ciacole 16 Perrett E Ahern 76 Joint Destiny 7(7) 5 22 M R Channon2 8-9 S Drowne 61 Betting Forecast: 4/5 Kings Point, 6/1 Love Triangle, 7/1 Ciacole, Hamaasy, 8/1 Joint Destiny, 20/1 Whitgift Rock, 33/1 Red Lancer. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hamaasy is an interesting newcomer, while Ciacole and Joint Destiny are likely improvers but KINGS POINT (nap) looks nailed on for a race such as this and is difficult to oppose.[fc] Trainer Trainer Going Dist Recent PM TS OR Horse Course Draw Ability 1st Time Form GF 6.0f Form Kings Point -? Love Triangle Ciacole Whitgift Rock -?? Joint Destiny -?? - Hamaasy Red Lancer X POSTDATA SELECTION: HAMAASY Bring up this site and see your races write down the races with your selections, if you click on the horses on either the field or the betting you will get more details. Go to betfair and enter your bets. Setting your Bets. Once you thoroughly explore the betfair site it will explain everything. They take the maximum of 5% of a winning bet bet that is all you loss. If you lose a bet you are not charged a commission. Only winners pay commissions. Now when you go to the race that you want to bet on. You will see that may be the horses lay price is $2.95, click on the mauve box with the price. It will open on the left hand side of the screen all you do is over type it with $2.50 and then put in stake. The screen will tell you that it is unmatched. It will sit there until it is Page 11

12 matched, lapsed because it is to far out of the money or it will be cancelled once the race starts, or you can cancel it anytime before it is accepted. I have learnt this very quickly, explore the betfair site and the racing UK site it will be a very uplifting time. This is powerful stuff, so powerful the NSW government has stopped its competition in that state. Need more proof. Australian Race Form. Wyong, NSW July 3rd 2003 As you can see it is a Maiden Race, which means that none of the horses have won a race. Now in the last right hand column they are the prices that the horses are likely to pay. Number 3 Boldina is at $3.00, now if this horse drops to $2.50 it will be a horse that we would lay (bet to lose.) Why would we pick this race. Well as you can see only Dodge the Shout with a second, and Boldina with a fourth, are the only one showing any form. Kings Sprinter has no exposed form, he could be anything, the rest are showing very average form. Now lets look at what the paper is saying. 1. Kings Sprinter, from strong stable watch betting. Page 12

13 2. Kind Act, Could be an improver. Scratched 3. Boldina Look for a bold showing. 4. Dodge the shout Racing well and right in this. 5. Cool Dane. Prefer to see again 6. Scratched 7. Scratched 8. Morski. Needs to show improvement. 9. St Lucy. Fitter now, but not yet. 10 Star Promise. It will pay to keep safe. 11 Scratched 12 Newbridge Place Best 13. Park Life Find this much easier and should go well in this class. So apart from Boldina four other horses have good comments. If we lay Boldina we have the whole field including the four horses with good comments run for us. Boldina has a Top trainer Gai Waterhouse this is properly why the the horse is shorter in price than it would otherwise be. So we enter on betfair a lay bet of $2.50 and stake $10 and if this price is accepted. We will have all the field running for us, except Boldina. So if we use $10 as a stake the betfair screen will show that we have a liability of $ If Boldina wins we will lose $15.00 to the other side of the bet. However if Boldina is beaten we will receive $10.00 less 5% commission which in this case is 50c. So our return for risking that Boldina will get beaten $9.50. If Boldina wins we will have to pay $15.00, but no commission it is only paid on winning bets. The results are shown below Boldina did not even run a place. 02 ANDREW JONES MDN 2YO HCP 1350 Metres 1:01pm 1st (13) PARK LIFE (B.COOPER) $4.40 Page 13

14 2nd (8) MORSKI (M.PAGET) 3rd (10) STAR PROMISE (C.BROWN) SCR - 2,6,7,11 That is what lay betting is all about. It puts you in the bookie seat. Betting Exchanges are the lean mean Money making machines. Cheers and Thank you. Steve Davidson To Check out Betfair Click Here me if you need more information.click here: mailto:stevedav@iinet.net,au If you have enjoyed this system, and have not Seen Loaded Bases Click here Page 14