Demographic Report 2017 The United Church of Canada

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Deirdre Chapman
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1 Demographic Report 2017 The United Church of Canada

2 Demographic Report Objective What are the future needs of the church? How many ministry personnel are needed?

3 Sources 2010 Demographics: Report from the Task Group on Demographics from the Permanent Committee for Ministry and Employment, Policies and Procedures. (Please see original report for sources: commons.united-church.ca, GCE November 13-15, 2010, Addendum L) Sept 29, 2017 Church Records Report: A snapshot report that was taken on that date (Sybase Database System) Church Records: Information generated from Church Records (Sybase Database System) on the date indicated Yearbook: Information taken from the published Yearbooks

4 General Trends

5 General Trends (Yearbook) Preaching Places (Congregations) Pastoral Charges All Ordained Ministers All Diaconal Ministers All Designated Lay Ministers Ministry Personnel Serving Pastoral Charges

6 Number of Ministers Ordained Ministry (OM) Trends (Yearbook) OM serving Charges United Supply (OM) Retired Supply (OM) Interim (OM) Type of Position Special Ministries (OM) Retired (OM) Retained (OM)

7 Number of Ministers Diaconal Ministry (DM) Trends (Yearbook) DM serving Charges United Supply (DM) Retired Supply (DM) Interim (DM) Type of Position Special Ministries (DM) Retired (DM) Retained (DM)

8 Number of Ministers 160 Designated Lay Ministry (DLM) Trends (Yearbook) DLM-Recognized Serving Charges DLM - Applicants Serving Charges DLM in Other Ministries Retired (DLM) Type of Position Retained (DLM)

9 Gender and Age Distribution

10 TOTAL NUMBER OF MINISTERS (INCLUDING RETIRED) (4054): COMMISSIONED, ORDAINED, DLM RECOGNIZED (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Male, 2236, 55% Female, 1818, 45%

11 TOTAL NUMBER OF MINISTERS (COMMISSIONED, ORDAINED, DLM RECOGNIZED) UNDER 65 (2499) (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Male, 1117, 45% Female, 1382, 55%

12 Female Male Age Distribution of All Ministry Personnel (Sept 29, 2017 Church Records Report) Ordained Diaconal DLM Ordained Diaconal DLM and over and under

13 1600 Age Distribution for Ordered Ministers 2010 Comparison (2010 Demographics and Sept 29, Church Records Report) and under and under and over Female Male

14 Interesting Ages in 2017 (Sept 29, 2017 Church Records Report) Youngest Minister = 23 Oldest Minister = 110 Average Age of All Ministers = 59.4 Average Age (AA) of All Ministers under 65 = 54.8 AA of DLMs under 65 = 56.1 AA of Diaconal Ministers under 65 = 57 AA of Ordained Ministers under 65 = 54.9 Average Age of Ordained Ministry Personnel under 65 in 2010 = 52 (2010 Demographic Report)

15 New Ministry Personnel and Candidates

16 NUMBER OF MINISTERS NEWLY ORDERED MINISTERS BY GENDER (NEWLY COMMISSIONED AND ORDAINED) Female Male YEAR OF ENTRY

17 Average Age 60 Average Age of Newly Ordered Ministers at Entry Year of Entry

18 NUMBER OF MINISTERS NEWLY ADMITTED MINISTERS BY GENDER Female Male YEAR OF ENTRY

19 Average Age 60 Average Age of Newly Admitted Ministers at Entry Year of Entry

20 Recognized Designated Lay Ministers Female, 4 Male, Average Age: Female, 6 Male, Average Age: 62

21 Number of Ministers Number of New Ministers each Year including Newly Ordered, Admitted/Readmitted, Recognized Year 8 10 Commissioned/Ordained Admitted/Readmitted Designated Lay Ministers Recognized

22 Number of Candidates 225 Number of Candidates for Ordered Ministry (Yearbook) Year

23 Retirees

24 Number of Retired Ministers 1760 Total Number of Retirees (Yearbook) Year

25 Number of Ministers Retiring Number of Ministers Retiring (Church Records) Year

26 Average Years Since Entry into Ministry at time of Retirement Average Years Since Entry into Ministry for Ordered Ministers at the time of their Retirement (Church Records) Year Diaconal Ordained

27 Assignment Trends

28 MINISTERS WITH CURRENT ASSIGNMENTS (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Ordained, Retired, 133, 8% DLM - Recognized, 75, 5% DLM - Recognized, Retired, 18, 1% Ordained, 1246, 79% Diaconal, 96, 6% Diaconal, Retired, 9, 1%

29 MINISTERS WITHOUT CURRENT ASSIGNMENTS (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Ordained, 387, 16% Diaconal, Retired, 152, 6% Diaconal, 38, 1% DLM - Recognized, Retired, 122, 5% Ordained, Retired, 1703, 69% DLM - Recognized, 75, 3%

30 Part-Time/Full-Time/Appointments/Calls (Sept 1, 2016 Church Records) Retired Supply Ordered DLM (Applicants and Recognized) Part-Time Appointments Part-Time Calls Full-Time Appointments Full-Time Calls

31 Number of Ordered Ministers Serving 1400 Number of Ordered Ministers Serving in Calls and Appointments (Church Records) Year Appointment Call

32 Number of Ministers Serving 1800 Full-Time vs. Part Time Positions Year Full-Time Part-Time

33 Restorative Care and Long Term Disability All Information from Restorative Care (RCP) and Long Term Disability (LTD) Minister Report 2017

34 Definitions Restorative Care Plan (RCP) Long Term Disability (LTD) The goal of the RCP is to support individuals during an illness or injury while they recover and prepare to return to their work safely. The RCP lasts six months. If Ministry Personnel or an Employee is away from work for longer than six months, he or she may be eligible for a transition to the long-term disability (LTD) plan. You continue to be covered under your group benefits plan if you go onto LTD, but you are not required to pay the premium for this coverage until you are no longer disabled or reach age 65. Your pension continues to grow while you receive LTD benefits.

35 MINISTERS ON RESTORATIVE CARE PLAN AS OF AUGUST 26, 2017 Student Supply or Designated Lay Minister, 3 Ordered Ministers, 26

36 Number of Ministers 80 Ministers on Long Term Disability Year Designated Lay Minister/Minister Serving in a Conference Office/Student Supply Ordered Minister

37 Variety of Diagnosis Number of Ministers with Variety of Diagnosis based on Open Claims in Period Number of Open Claims Mental Disorders Nervous System & Sendory Organs Cancer Accidents & Injury Musculoskeletal & Connective Tissue Circulatory System Digestive System Endocrine, Metabolic & Immunity Disorders Blood Diseases Other

38 Conclusions Fewer Ministers Serving Pastoral Charges, Fewer Pastoral Charges More Female Ministers under 65, and more Females becoming Ministers Ratio of females and males entering ministry has come closer together, especially with Admissions having more males Fewer Ministers Under 50, Growing Number of Ministers over 50 Fewer people becoming Ordered Ministers, currently slightly more Candidates Years Since Entry into Ministry Decreasing for those Retiring (fewer years of service?) Number of Retired Ministers Increasing 425 Ordered Ministers aren t working (393 Pastoral Charges without a Minister) More Part-Time Positions and more Appointments Mental Health is the largest cause of Insurance Claims

39 Looking to the Future

40 Pastoral Charges vs. Ministry Personnel Serving Pastoral Charges: Trends and Predictions

41 15 Year Trend by the numbers In the last 15 years, Pastoral Charges have been closing at an average of 14/year At this rate, by 2030 there will be 1918 Pastoral Charges In the last 15 years, Ministry Personnel Serving Pastoral Charges has been declining at an average of 17.4/year At this rate, by 2030 there will be 1474 Ministry Personnel Serving in Pastoral Charges

42 Number of Pastoral Charges and Ministers Serving Pastoral Charges year trend - 14 Pastoral Charges Closing/Year and 87 fewer Ministers Serving Pastoral Charges/Year Year Pastoral Charges Ministry Personnel Serving

43 Number of Retirees and Ministers Retirees vs. New Ministers (Church Records) Year Retirees New Ministers There has been an average 34 person gap between those retiring and new ministers being admitted, commissioned, or ordained in the last 5 years.

44 Gender Distribution Trends and Predictions (Source for next 4 slides: Annual New Ministers Demographic Report as Presented to The Permanent Committee on Ministry and Employment Policies and Services (PC-MEPs) since 2010)

45 AVERAGE NUMBER OF NEW ORDERED MINISTERS ENTERING BY GENDER (ADMITTED, COMMISSIONED, ORDAINED) EACH YEAR SINCE 2010 Male, 20.4, 41% Female, 29.4, 59%

46 AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINISTERS RETIRING EACH YEAR BY GENDER SINCE 2010 Male, 51, 52% Female, 47, 48%

47 Yearly Gender Swing Trend since 2010 In 2017 there were 1117 Male Ministers under the age of 65 Male Ordered Ministers are decreasing by an Average of 30.6 per year At this rate, by 2030 there will be approximately 719 Active Male Ministers In 2017 there were 1382 Female Ministers under the age of 65 Female Ordered Ministers are decreasing by an average of 17.6 per year At this rate, by 2030 there will be approximately 1153 Active Female Ministers

48 2030 GENDER DISTRIBUTION PREDICTION Male, 719, 38% Female, 1153, 62%

49 Average Age Trends and Predictions

50 Average Age of Ordained Ministers Since 2010 the Average Age of Ordained Ministers under the age of 65 has increased by.4/year From 52 in 2010 to 54.9 in 2017 At this rate, by 2030 the Average Age for an Ordained Minister under the age of 65 will be 60.1

51 Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry at Time of Retirement Trends and Predictions

52 Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry Since 2010 the Average Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry for Retiring Ordered Ministers has decreased by 0.22/year At this rate by 2030 the Average Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry for retiring ministers will be 19 years

53 Assignment Trends

54 Percentage of Positions Percentage of Calls and Appointments for Ordered Ministers if Current Trend Continues Year %Appointment %Call

55 Percentage of Positions Percentage of Full-Time vs. Part-Time Assignments if Current Trend Continues Year Full-Time Part-Time

56 United Church of Canada Membership Trends

57 Numbers of People 651,002 United Church of Canada General Trends (Yearbook) 573, , , , , , , , , , , ,971 94,280 64,586 45, Year Membership Membership of Sunday Schools Average Weekly Attendence Identifiable Givers to Local Expenses

58 Number of People United Church of Canada General Trends if Current Trends Continue (Yearbook) 651, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,971 94, ,343 87,612 64,586 69,564 45,970 32,225 22,590 15, Year Membership Membership of Sunday Schools Average Weekly Attendance Identifiable Givers to Local Expenses

59 Number of Members per 1 Serving Ministry Personnel Future Trend based on Average % Decrease

60 Number of Members per 1 Pastoral Charge Future Trends based on Average % Decrease

61 Conclusions about the Future Ministry Personnel Needs of the Church

62 Conclusions There is a gap between Serving Ministry Personnel and Pastoral Charges, and in all of our trends there will be more Pastoral Charges than Serving Ministry Personnel More Ministry Personnel are needed Years Since Entry into Ministry for Retiring Ministers is Decreasing and the Average Age of Ministry Personnel is Increasing Younger Ministry Personnel are needed

63 Conclusions However, the number of Pastoral Charges and the number of Members is also decreasing and the ratio of Serving Ministry Personnel to Members has been decreasing (fewer Members per each Ministry Personnel Serving) Ministry Personnel that can serve greater distances needed More part-time positions and more appointments are being created (and fewer fulltime calls) Ministry Personnel that can work multiple part-time positions, or engage in bi-vocational calls are needed

64 Conclusions There are 425 Ordered Ministers who are not serving, 393 Pastoral Charges without Ministry Personnel Trained, qualified ministers need to serve the Pastoral Charges that need leadership Is this a Recruitment Issue? A Retention Issue? A Geographical Issue?

65 What are the future needs of the church? How many ministry personnel are needed? The numbers are important and need to increase but the type of Ministry Personnel we re recruiting is almost more important How do we realistically recruit for the future needs of The United Church of Canada? What resources do Pastoral Charges need to notice, name, nurture people in their congregations to consider ministry? What can be done to encourage people to consider ministry? What can be done to support Pastoral Charges in this work? What other questions need to be asked that haven t been?

Post-neonatal mortality (28 days to 1 year)

Post-neonatal mortality (28 days to 1 year) Figure A1: Infant, neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rate (per 1000 live births), 1979 2003 14 12 10 Deaths per 1000 live births 8 6 4! N ZHIS CYMRC # 2 0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987