Observing and managing economic and social change

Transcription

1 1st IPY workshop on sustaining Arctic Observing Networks Observing and managing economic and social change Rasmus Ole Rasmussen Nordregio Nordic Centre for Spatial Development, Stockholm NORS North Atlantic Regional Studies, Roskilde University

2 Changing seal hunting, Greenland Relationship between seal hunting and sea temperature deviations Hunted seals Southgreenland Northgreenland Mean temperature deviation 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,2-0,4-0,6 Temperature deviation

3 Temperature / Catch relationship W Greenland cod catch W Greenland shrimp catch 3-year running mean temperature

4 FIsheries in Greenland waters Fisheries in Greenland waters Year Total cod Total shrimp Total salmon Total seawolf Total gr. Halibut Total other Tonnes

5 Settlement Structure Total population Villages Towns

6 60,00 55,00 50,00 45,00 40,00 Gender distribution Procent kvinder % kvinder

7 Short term data: Time series data Misinterpret ongoing changes as unique Long term trends: Limited understanding of the role of specific events Both: Differences between event driven and process driven changes

8 Income structure Income structure Subsistence Sisimiut Paamiut Tasiilaq Informal sale Formal sale fish Formal sale Hunting Direct transfers Income

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15 Informal economy in towns and villages Informal income in main groups Sale on local market Sale to institutions Sale to restaurants Sale to families, friends etc. Gifts Own consumption 0 Towns Villages

16 Scale problems Highly aggregate data: Disguising local/regional variations but showing overall/common trends Detailed data: Disguising differences but showing the role of events and individuals Both: Understanding social and economic processes in TIME and in SPACE

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18 Food-security Greenland import of food *1.000 dkr Living animals Meat and meat products Dairy products and eggs Fish and fish products Cereals Fruit and vegetables Sugar, sugar products and honey Coffee, tea etc. Feedstuff Other products Beverages Tobacco and tobacco products

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20 Formal/informal incomes Informal and susbsistence as percentage of total income Percent Villages Towns Linear (Villages) Linear (Towns) Year

21 Data access One and two dimensional data: Assumed relations, confirming or rejecting assumptions. Theory and Paradigm driven analysis. Multiple dimensional data: Unexpected relations, opening up for new theories, and even new paradigms Active data = data which can be put together in new ways Relational databases.

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26 Summarized gender out-migration Accumulated net out migration males Accumulated net out migration females Greenlanders in Denmark Males Females

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28 Qualities: Qualities / Quantities Reflecting perceptions, experiences, perceived driving forces Perceived or communicated rationales Quantities: Don t t look at their lips, look at their hands showing what is actually done Lived rationales

29 Education Persons finished education Persons Females Males

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31 Women's share of persons with semi-long (bachelor level) and long (master and doctoral) education Procent Denmark Faroe Islands Norway Sweden Iceland Greenland Finland In a globalised knowledge economy, education has become a crucial assett. In the Nordic Countries men are still dominating the research arena, but during the last20 years women have surpassed men in relation to general level of education. And it has had marked regional consequences:

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33 Contemporary dynamics Biased focus: Paradigm driven Path dependency Data driven analysis Given framework dependency Problem based: Response to real-world problems Unexpected relations User driven analysis Indicators

34 Analyzing Why OBSERVING and MANAGING? Interaction with stakeholders Registration Getting access to information otherwise un-accessible Reaction Immediate response regarding both quality and usefulness of data

35 Thank you for your attention