PACKERS, BRONCOS IN BATTLE OF UNBEATENS!

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1 Volume 0, Issue 10 October 29-November 2, 2015 Marc s NFL Game of the Month Goes Sunday! PACKERS, BRONCOS IN BATTLE OF UNBEATENS! 88% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE! Betcha Didn t Know Handicapping Article Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends Incredible Stat of the Week Analysis on Every Lined Game Best Bets and Key Plays Full Schedule with Opening Lines GET SMART GET PLAYBOOK GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLE COPYRIGHT NOTICE - All materials in this newsletter are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, rebroadcast, displayed, or otherwise published without the prior written permission of Playbook.com. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice, nor may you offer for sale or resale the material included herein. VegasInsider.com

2 Marc Lawrence's BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW YOU RE IN MY HEART A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping You re an essay in glamor Please pardon the grammar But you re every schoolboy s dream. You re Celtic, United, but baby I ve decided You re the best team I ve ever seen. Let s face it. Football in the U.S. is a different brand than what is played around the rest of the world. They call if futbol, or soccer, for a better name. When it comes to football in the States, the NFL has been ranked as the most popular American sport for 1 straight years. It s been that way since 1985 when the NFL overtook MLB for the first time in the Harris Poll, edging out professional baseball 24 to 2 percent in a fan vote. And, despite the fact that the league continues to put profits and popularity over its people, they still reign supreme, garnering 5% of the popular vote in the most recent poll among sports fans in the United States. Yet despite the rocky off-the-field days of late not, the business of football continues to thrive stateside. Today the average NFL team is worth $1.4 billion, up 24% from 201. Over half of the NFL owners are represented on Forbes billionaire list. And to top it off, the league does not pay taxes, listing itself as a non-profit organization. WTF! In spite of it all, fans infatuation with the NFL is a love affair second to none. And as a professional handicapper, my love for the league continues to grow leaps and bounds each year, too thanks to my personal database and the array of money-in-the-bank winning systems that it produces. One of my favorites happens annually when situations like the one below arise, as it tells us to PLAY ON any.690 or greater NFL non-division home dog off three or more SU wins in a row. These well-qualified home dogs are a cupid-like ATS since Last year saw two qualifying plays and they were both sweethearts when New England drilled Denver 4-21, as a -point home dog, while Arizona downed Detroit, 14-6, as a 1-point puppy. Incidentally, when the foe enters off a SU win of its own, the numbers improve to a palpitating 21-6 ATS. This week finds the first qualifying play of the season when Denver hosts Green Bay in a clash of undefeated teams. And as you might guess, my heart and wallet will be on the Broncos. Now when it comes to isolating quality teams taking points and playing their best ball of the season, you don t have to be a genius to pull the trigger. Just make like Rod Stewart, follow your heart, and remember: My love for you is immeasurable My respect for you immense. You re ageless, timeless, lace and fineness. You re beauty and elegance. You re in my heart Amway Coaches Poll Top 25 (Week 9): 1 OHIO ST 2 BAYLOR TCU 4 LSU 5 MICHIGAN ST 6 CLEMSON 7 ALABAMA 8 STANFORD 9 NOTRE DAME 10 OKLAHOMA ST 11 IOWA 12 FLORIDA 1 OKLAHOMA 14 UTAH 15 FLORIDA ST 16 MEMPHIS 17 MICHIGAN 18 DUKE 19 HOUSTON 20 TOLEDO 21 OLE MISS 22 TEMPLE 2 GEORGIA 24 PITTSBURGH 25 UCLA TRIVIA TEASER THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY This rising-star head coach is a dog lover, going 10-2 ATS in his career when taking more than 7 points. And the better the competition, the better his team performs, going 6-0 ATS in this role versus.570 or great opponents. Who is this week s fabulous fido? For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 7. Be sure to check out the COACHES LEAGUE for ATS records on every College & NFL coach in 16 key situational roles. Simply log on to www. PLAYBOOK.com and click on the COACHES LEAGUE. AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK PLAY AGAINST any college football favorite from Game 7 out off their first loss of the season if they (1) did not lose by 18 or more points, (2) allow more than 16 PPG, and () they re facing a. > avenging foe. Play AGAINST: FLORIDA & FLORIDA STATE BUBBLE BURST ATS W-L Record Since 1980: (88%) View Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week at the PLAYBOOK.com website! page 2

3 2-MINUTE HANDICAP TEAMS College Football Games Saturday, October 1 Clemson SERIES: 7- L10 away 0-7 away vs conf revenge NC STATE SERIES: 4-1 L5 11- home w/ conf revenge Maryland 1-9 vs conf revenge 1-6 aft Penn St 1- vs rested opp IOWA 7-1 w/ conf revenge 4-1 w/ rest 5-2 Game Eight Stanford SERIES: -1 L4 1-4 away off BBB HG 2-8 aft Wash WASH ST 4-1 bef Ariz St 8- as conf HD s 8 > pts 5-2 aft Ariz Georgia 5-1 as dogs off + ATS losses 1-6 as dogs 8 < pts Florida SERIES: 5-2 L7 4-0 off SU conf loss 7 < pts 1-5 aft Lsu Usc SERIES: 5-0 L5 away -1 aft Utah 1-4 Game Eight CALIFORNIA 1-4 bef Oregon 1- off Weekday gm -7 aft Ucla Notre Dame 1-4 in 1st of BB RG 4-12 aft score 40 > pts TEMPLE 6-1 aft ECU 5-1 as HD s 4 > pts 8-2 Game Eight Oklahoma St SERIES: 5-1 L6 / -0 L away -1 aft Kansas TEXAS TECH 8- home off BB RG 2-6 home w/ conf revenge Vanderbilt 5-1 in 1st of BB RG 1- as DD non-conf RD s HOUSTON BOWL revenge from LY -1 as non-conf favs > 8 pts S Carolina -1 Game Eight 1-5 aft Vandy 1-4 w/ conf revenge TEXAS A&M 9- in 1st of straight HG 2-9 vs revenge in SEC Oregon St 1-6 w/ conf revenge L2Y 2-5 as conf dogs > 21 pts UTAH SERIES: Fav as favs 11 > pts vs Pac 12 Syracuse 5-2 dogs 14 > pts vs SEC 7- in 1st of BB RG FLORIDA ST SERIES: -0 L home 9-2 as conf HF s > 17 pts Tulane 6-2 w/ conf revenge 1-8 as conf dogs 21 > pts MEMPHIS SERIES: 8-0 L8 1-7 in 1st of BB HG 1-6 aft Tulsa Michigan 4-1 off SU conf loss 4 < pts 0- w/ rest 1-6 Game Eight MINNESOTA 7-0 as HD s 8 > pts 4-1 aft Nebraska -1 Game Eight FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT ATS = Against The Spread A = Away Con = Conference D = Dog F = Favorite H = Home Rev = Revenge R = Road SU = Straight-Up All results are ATS Against The Spread and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains the exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK and PLAYBOOK.COM and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher. KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS SMART BOX STANDING 8-COUNT Imagine being a 10-win team last year and now a losing squad at this stage of the current season. How difficult of a job is it for a coach to get his team psyched to play this week, you ask? Plenty. According to our database, losing teams in Game Eight of the season who won 10 or more games last year are ATS since 1980, including ATS If these same teams allow more than 24 or more PPG on the season. One team on this week s card figures to taking a Standing 8-Count, namely Colorado State. Talk about being staggered: after going 10- last season, the Rams lost their head coach and are just -4 this season. Worse, if these wobbly standing 8-counters are facing a foe that surrenders 25.5 or fewer PPG on the season, they dip to ATS, including ATS at home. With CSU taking on a surging San Diego State squad this week, look for the Rams to take it squarely on the chin. Sound the bell. TEAMS NFL Games KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS Thursday, October 29 Miami 15-2 in 1st BB A (1-0 TY) 0-4 RD s vs.750 > opp NEW ENGLAND 15-2 in 2nd BB div games 1-4 Thursday off div game Sunday, November 1 Detroit 0-7 bef Green Bay vs opp w/ rev 2-7 vs AFC opp Kansas City SERIES: 5-1 L6 0-4 vs NFC (0- TY) 1-4 bef rest Minnesota 5-0 in 2nd BB A > Away Four CHICAGO SERIES: 8- L11 / 6-1 L7H 2-8 H w/ rev bef BB A Tampa Bay 7-1 vs opp off BB A 6-1 A off non-div bef BB H ATLANTA SERIES: -1 L4H 4-1 H btwn 2A 2-7 H off BB A NY Giants 10-2 dogs off H vs opp off A (1-0 TY) 10-2 Away Four NEW ORLEANS SERIES: -1 L4 / 4-0 L4H 2-9 w/ rev off BB dog roles San Francisco 4-1 Away Four vs.500 > opp 7-2 A off BB H ST. LOUIS 7-0 off AFC (1-0 TY) 4-1 vs opp w/ single rev Arizona 8-0 A vs <. opp 1-6 off MNF vs opp w/ rev CLEVELAND 5-0 off SUATS loss vs opp off MNF 4-0 aft score < 7 pts Cincinnati 11-1 off A vs.500 > opp off A 1-8 w/ triple rev PITTSBURGH SERIES: -0 L / 4-1 L5H > Game Eight San Diego 4-1 RD s vs opp off MNF 0-4 vs opp w/ single rev BALTIMORE 10-2 HF s bef rest 0-4 off BB NFC games Tennessee -1 vs div opp off dog role of 4 > pts LG HOUSTON SERIES: 7-1 L8 / 4-1 L5H 5-0 vs opp w/ double rev NY Jets 9-2 Away Three off div game 0-6 aft NE vs opp w/ rev OAKLAND 6-1 w/ double rev (1-0 TY) > vs.500 > opp Seattle 8-0 bef rest 1-5 off A vs opp off A (0-2 TY) DALLAS SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 4-1 L5H 2-11 H aft NY Giants Green Bay 10-1 w/ rest > vs.850 > opp DENVER 4-0 vs opp w/ rest > off non-div vs.900 > Monday, November 2 Indianapolis 4-1 in 2nd BB NFC games 1-6 <.500 MNF w/ rev CAROLINA SERIES: 4-1 L5 Host 6-1 in Carolina MNF games WEEK EIGHT BYES: BUFFALO, JACKSONVILLE, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK The Rice Owls are ATS as conference home dogs off a win, including the last thirteen. Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! page

4 THIS WEEK IN FOOTBALL - OCTOBER 29 - NOV 2 Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 6 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line Bulldogs Hunker Down, Topple Gators In SEC East War... Saints Get Marching, Cut Eli & The G-Men Down To Size... Thursday, October 29 PITTSBURGH over N Carolina by A busy Week Nine Thursday card kicks off in Pittsburgh with the top spot in the ACC Coastal on the line. And if this game is like any of the Panthers previous five contests, you ll likely need to stay tuned to the end as all five have been decided by a touchdown or less, including three by a mere field goal. We see more of the same tonight in the Steel City, though the Tar Heels (2-0 SUATS) have been Kryptonite to Pitt in this matchup since the Panthers joined the ACC in 201. However, Marc s 2011 BLACK BOOK suggests The Times They Are A Changin as it reminds us to fade teams off a SU win who were 6-7 the previous season. Our machine also warns us to be wary of the Heels as they are just 1-4 ATS after clashing with Virginia while the Panthers have been very profitable as home dogs off a SU win, posting an 11- ATS mark, including 8-1 ATS in conference play. And bucking the best defense is a good offense adage, our MIDWEEK ALERT feels that UNC s 24th-rated attack should have their Heels full with a Pitt stop-unit that owns the No. 7 overall defense in games this season versus fellow FBS foes. Either way, the Heinz Field crowd will be waiting in anticipation as this one has last-minute written all over it. Thus, if the Panthers are still taking come kickoff, so are we. W Michigan over E MICHIGAN by 24 If the sun rises in the east, it must miss Ypsilanti as the Eagles (1-7, 0-4) are nesting in their usual MAC West basement. And speaking of west, P.J. Fleck s Broncos remain unbeaten in league play (-0) following last week s 22-point win over Miami Ohio, and should stay that way for at least a couple of more weeks (next up is a home date with Ball State) before meeting Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Toledo to close out the regular season. With a 5-0 SUATS away record in conference play since the start of last season, this 108-mile road trip down I-94 won t even require a rest stop though the Broncos did stumble in their last visit to Rynearson Stadium, 5-2, in 201. In fact, before last year s 51-7 rout of the EMUs, Western somehow had dropped three straight in the series. That won t be the case tonight, though, as the Eagles 119th-rated defense has been torched for 52 PPG over their last five outings not a good sign against a Broncos attack that is averaging 4 PPG over that same span. Yes, we don t butter our bread by playing double-digit road favorites but this one sets up in the west for another road cover. Lay it or leave it. Buffalo over MIAMI OHIO by 11 The -4 Bulls 24-point rout of Ohio last Saturday keeps their bowl hopes alive as winnable games against Miami Ohio (tonight), Akron and UMass still dot the 2015 slate. (However, if a six-win MAC team were to garner a bowl bid, it would surely make one of Robert Ripley s museums.) And though the Bulls don t do much roaming outside of UB Stadium (7-28 SU since 2010), we don t see a problem running with them tonight in Oxford as the RedHawks have dropped 22 of their last 24 conference games, including all three to these same Bulls. And despite failing in their lone favorite role this season (lost to Nevada as 2-point chalk, 24-21), the Bulls are a money-making 8-1 ATS in MAC play since 201 when asked to lay points, including 4-0 ATS on the road. Believe it or not, that has us leaning towards laying points on the road with a losing team. Tell that to Ripley but only if you must. GA SOUTHERN over Texas St by 28 If you thought General Custer was in the wrong place at the wrong time when he ended up near the Little Bighorn River, we wouldn t suggest being in Dennis Franchione s shoes tonight in Statesboro. That s because his Bobcats must tackle a Georgia Southern squad that saw its perfect 10-0 Sun Belt record since joining the conference last season come to an end at the hands of Appalachian State last Thursday night. The top rushing team in the land was held to 188 yards on the ground and 1 points in the loss (they were averaging just under 400 RYPG and 40 PPG before the setback) which has us putting this week s over/under on Southern at 425 rushing yards and 54 points (and that might be low considering the Cats arrive with the 124th-rated rush defense and have allowed 55 PPG on the road this season). And remember, State is just 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS the last three seasons when it allows more than 200 rushing yards. Yikes! Still worried about laying the lumber with the agitated hosts? Don t be the Eagles are 8-4 ATS in SU wins since joining the ranks of the FBS. Hence, we say lay it AND play it as the Eagles offer no Southern hospitality to Franchione and company tonight in Paulson Stadium. TCU over West Virginia by 19 While the Horned Frogs are a cut above the rest (12-0 ATS) when given extra time to prepare, the Mountaineers have been put to rest when playing against Big 12 opposition with additional time off, posting a weary 0-7 ATS mark. Rest assured, that s not the only trend that has us hopping with the Frogs tonight in Fort Worth. No, the Horned Ones are 12-1 ATS off a SU win versus a foe off back-to-back SU losses and 4-0 ATS as doubledigit conference home favorites. That should rest our case but we re not about to you guessed it rest on those laurels. Not when our MIDWEEK ALERT chimes in with this: TCU is winning the stat battle in Big 12 play by 188 YPG while conference foes are outgaining West Virginia by 66 YPG this season. Yes, the series visitor (-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has had its way in this matchup since WVU joined the conference in 2012 and, of course, Frogs HC Gary Patterson has filled more holes this season especially to a defense that had to replace eight starters by Week Four than Huggy Bear from Starsky and Hutch. However, if you re hopping aboard the TCU train, this should put your mind at rest: the Mounties are 1-6 SU in their last seven conference games, including 0- SUATS this season, and 1-5 ATS in Game Seven dating back to Ok, we ll give it a rest. You know what to do. Oregon over ARIZONA ST by 6 Another matchup involving rested opponents finds the Ducks hitting Tempe with a 1-2 ATS log away with time off and, more importantly, a healthy Vernon Adams Jr. back under center. Adams returned to action last week in Washington after missing 11 quarters with a broken index finger (an injury he actually suffered in the season opener but played through it for a few weeks) and promptly tossed for 272 yards and two TDs while showing flashes of the ice-in-his-veins player who thrived in late-game situations while at Eastern Washington. In fact, Huskies DT Elijah Qualls who also faced Adams when the sled dogs beat EWU, 59-52, early last season (a game in which Adams threw for 7 TDs) said of the signal-caller, We don t have a quarterback on our scout team that can simulate what he can do. The dude is a hell of a quarterback. That s bad news for an ASU team that looks like a M*A*S*H unit and has had no success stopping a Quack Attack that is 8-0 SU and ATS in this series since Worse, the Devils have been asked to lay points only twice in the last 15 meetings and both times they lost the game outright. In addition, a 1-8 ATS log as home favorites with revenge off a double-digit ATS loss compels us to take what we can get. And that s just what we ll do as those previous four Thursday selections (all favorites) finds us completely out of costume. Friday, October 0 Louisville over WAKE FOREST by 14 How ironic is it that Devil s Night finds the Demon Deacons posing as an ACC football team? Just when you thought that Dave Clawson s defense was the real deal holding FSU to 24 points and then tossing a shutout at BC they go and get lit up for 50 points in Chapel Hill and then give up 28 1st-quarter points at home to NC State last week. They get the chance to redeem themselves tonight in front of the home faithful against a Louisville offense that has been pretty much non-existent all season long. Then why are we leaning toward laying doubles on Tobacco Road with a Cardinal crew that let us down as a 5* Best Bet on these pages last week? For starters, Louie held Boston College to a season-low 79 total yards in the non-cover win, including minus 14 yards on the ground which is not a good omen for page 4

5 a Demon rushing attack that is ranked 11th in the nation. In addition, our NCAA Coaches Database tells us that Cardinals HC Bobby Petrino does his best work this time of the year, posting a 7-9 SU and ATS mark without rest from Game Seven out. The Redbirds have also been a Mariano Rivera-like 16-4 SU in the season s final five games over the past four years. Wake s 8-1 ATS log at home off a SU home loss certainly catches our attention but their lousy 4-1 ATS mark in this building in SU losses won t have us selling our soul for this bunch. We won t make you do it but lay it if you play it tonight in Winston-Salem. East Carolina over UCONN by 12 What they call Devil s Night in the Midwest is known as Mischief Night along the East Coast, so it s not surprising to find the Huskies out and looking to ruin East Carolina s chance at a fourth straight bowl berth. The 4-4 Pirates may need three more wins to secure a bid, though a sixwin AAC squad (this conference has three teams in the Top 25) with a more-than-adequate non-conference slate (Florida, BYU, Va Tech) and a solid bowl history may be attractive to the sponsors. Nonetheless, Ruffin McNeill s men can t let this one get away and UConn s -10 ATS log as a dog under second-year HC Bob Diaco along with an 0-2 SUATS record after clawing with Cincinnati (average loss coming by 8 PPG) says the Huskies don t have enough bite to make that happen. And with the Pirates coming off a tough loss last Thursday at home to Temple, that brings McNeill s 9- ATS mark off a SU loss versus a foe off a SU loss into play, including 5-0 ATS the last five. However, ECU s 1-14 ATS log as road favorites of more than 6 points has us spooked. So before we throw on the eye patch, we ll take a close look at the closing line. If it drops to 6 or less, we ll talk the talk and walk the plank. We suggest you do the same. UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET RICE over Louisiana Tech by If you happened to be in Ruston at the end of November last year, you ll recall there was no need to order in Mr. Chang s as there was plenty of fried Rice to go around Joe Aillet Stadium. In fact, the Techsters ordered a No. 76 (that s a 69 with seven fortune cookies) on the defenseless Owls as in a 76-1 massacre. And while Skippy (HC Holtz) has been our best friend throughout the years when taking points, his 9-16 ATS log as road chalk including 4-10 ATS versus a foe with revenge reminds us it s better to receive than give. Our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page also sends out the same vibe as the Owls have been money in the bank as conference home dogs off a SU win. So while we could end this analysis by saying you ll be hungry in an hour and that you re lucky number is +12 (this spread), you still may want to check out this little gem courtesy of Confucius, err, The Clincher: Rice head coach David Bailiff is ATS at home with revenge, including 6-0 SUATS when his team s win percentage is greater than.. UTAH ST over Wyoming by 24 The Cowboys are usually a sight for Utah State s sore eyes as the Aggies have outscored the Pokes in the past three meetings. And those eyes must also be seeing red as State returns home off a confounding loss at San Diego State. The good news is Matt Wells gang still control their destiny in the MWC Mountain Division but can he get them off the proverbial mat quick enough to cover tonight s hefty spread? A 7-2 ATS mark off a SU favorite loss along with a 1- ATS log in regular-season weekday games says yes. So does Wyoming s -8 ATS record away off a previous away game versus.666 or less opposition. However, our MIDWEEK ALERT insists the Cowboys are a better team then their 1-7 record indicates and it may be right as the Boys have been outgained by only 19 YPG versus fellow FBS foes this season and have covered five of their last six games, including each of the last four. We know Wyoming won t lasso the outright win but as the hosts reach for the Visine, we ll reach for the points. You know the drill. Saturday, October 1 NAVY over South Florida by 6 Is this a trick or have the Bulls treated their fans to three straight wins for the first time since early 2011? No, that s the smell of Peanut Butter Cups in the Tampa air as QB Quinton Flowers single-game rushing record by a USF quarterback (201 yards) led the Bulls to a 8-14 victory over SMU, and a third straight win since dropping their conference opener, 24-7, to mighty Memphis. And speaking of the Amway Coaches Poll 16th-rated Tigers, that s just who the Middies may have their sights trained on as they set sail for Memphis next Saturday. In addition, QB Keenan Reynolds has his own personal agenda as he s just two rushing touchdowns shy of Montee Ball s NCAA record of 77. As for the numbers, they don t tell us much as the Midshipmen are -10 ATS as double-digit home favorites while the Bulls are a negating 1-7 ATS away after winning as chalk and scoring 5 or more points. Thus, we ll just hang on the Annapolis sidelines and watch while enjoying whatever treats they give out (probably something healthy like Granola Bars) in Memorial Stadium. Marshall over CHARLOTTE by 17 With apologies to Chico Escuela (a SNL character from the late 1970 s), October has been very, very good to the surging Herd as they have allowed only five touchdowns in four league games, ranking in the Top 5 nationally. Marshall has also forced 11 more turnovers then they have committed this month another top-five FBS number. The problem, though, in backing the Herd today in Charlotte is a ATS record in the first of back-to-back away games. We also wouldn t blame them for over-looking the cellar-dwelling Niners as they have bigger C-USA East fish to fry in the upcoming weeks. However, this is nothing more than a half-hearted vote for the struggling 49ers, who have dropped five straight after opening the season with a pair of wins (Georgia State and everyone s favorite doormat, Presbyterian). Yes, the wheels are coming off in all phases for Brad Lambert s group and it wasn t more evident than in last week s shellacking in Southern Miss as the Niners gave up kick return for a touchdown, missed a pair of field goals, had a 1-yard punt that set up a Golden Eagle score and had a 75- yard touchdown run negated by a costly penalty. We ll still take if forced to make a decision but one thing s for certain: Chico would have been berry, berry proud of the Herd as they notch their fifth October win. APPALACHIAN ST over Troy by 28 Troy awoke from the dead last week in Las Cruces, routing New Mexico State, 52-7, for its first FBS win of the season and just the Aggies second road win in 12 tries. However, they simply just don t have enough to atone for last year s 5-14 home drubbing to Appalachian State. As it is, the Trojans have been piling up the frequent flyer miles as this fifth roadie has already seen them hit Raleigh, Madison, Starkville and last week Las Cruces. And App State s aforementioned win over Troy was a major confidence builder for the Mountaineers. Before that game, the Mounties were 0-4 versus FBS squads but have gone 12-1 since, including last week s impressive win over Georgia Southern. Now App State is the 20th team nationally to become bowl-eligible and the first from North Carolina. A look-ahead to Arkansas State, who is also unbeaten in Sun Belt play along with last week s big win prevents us from completely snapping the rubber band (as in a Best Bet). However, a 6-1 ATS record after scoring 28 or more points, as well as a defense that has not allowed more than two touchdowns in any of its six victories this season, has us laying if we re playing. Massachusetts over BALL ST by 1 It s been a rather quick decline for Pete Lembo s Cardinals, who went from a double-digit win team in 201 to a losing team last year to a team riding a five-game losing skein this season and whose only wins have come against VMI and Eastern Michigan. The current five-game skid is the longest under Lembo and it may get a lot higher should they falter this afternoon as they close out the season with three schools who are sitting over.500. It s a tough time for all of us, Lembo said. Believe me, I m not immune to it either. I m human, too. Lucky for Lembo, he catches a UMass squad that has to be beside themselves after blowing an 18-point halftime lead against 20th-ranked Toledo. In fact, not only did the Minutemen lose the game, they lost the money as the Rockets (-14.5) ignited for 41 secondhalf points in the 51-5 win. So what do you do with two teams who would rather be at a frat Halloween party than a meaningless MAC scrimmage? You take the squad that is 6-1 ATS after scoring 5 or more points (UMass) and not the one that is 1-6 ATS as a favorite of more than points (check line) with revenge (Ball State) especially when the former is on the take! Enough said. WISCONSIN over Rutgers by 17 If we re giving the -4 Knights a pair of wins to close out the season (at Army, home to Maryland) and that s a big if Kyle Flood s crew must still muster another victory to hit the alleys for a fifth consecutive season. That won t happen today in Madison (or next week in Ann Arbor, for that matter), though the Badgers may as well be walking the streets of Philadelphia after the bruising and battering they took in a hard-fought 24-1 win last Saturday in Champaign. And those injuries may be enough to close a gap that saw Bucky walk away with a 7-0 whitewashing last year on the banks of the Ol Raritan, though the Wisky defense appears to be rounding into form after holding three of its last four foes to season-low yardage. The crew from Camp Randall is also 9-2 ATS versus a foe off a SU loss of 14 or more points but we (continued on next page) page 5

6 can quickly offset that with the Knights 6-1 ATS log as road dogs of 20 or less points versus Big Ten opposition. Thus, like the Ball State/ UMass contest, we find ourselves on the outside looking in and leaning towards the points but only if Tony Soprano s kid puts a gun to our heads. Nebraska over PURDUE by 14 Well, at least Darrell Hazell won his last-longer bet with Al Golden! But it won t be by much. For the second time in three years, it appears the Boilermakers lone win will come against Indiana State as Hazell s 1-18 SU Big Ten record reminds us that a win is not on the horizon. Certainly not today as the -5 Huskers are on the verge of staying home for the holidays for the first time in eight years. Our only concern is that the Boilers arrive with rest while Nebraska hasn t had a breather all season long. And those nine straight Saturdays must seem even longer for HC Mike Riley as his five grueling losses have been by a combined 1 points! Here s a scary thought we could easily be talking about an unbeaten Cornhuskers squad heading into the final month of the season. That s not the case but it s more than enough to back them against a Purdue team that is 0-4 SU and has seen both its points and total yardage decrease since David Blough took over under center. Thus, we say lay it as Hazell may soon find himself eating at Joe s Stone Crab in South Beach after cashing in his bet with Golden. 4 BEST BET NC STATE over Clemson by There is not a soul in the world not even Dave Doeren s mom that would step in front of the Clemson Express following the Tigers 58-0 waxing of Miami last week. In fact, the Colts special teams coach probably spent more time drawing up that fake punt than the Tigers have trailed this entire season (six minutes). No, that can t be possible! Then why has Doeren s Wolfpack earned Best Bet status this week? For starters, Clemmie is looking dead-ahead to a revenge match with FSU and a -7 ATS log before facing the Seminoles tells us they have not been focused the prior week. They are also a winless 0- ATS after meeting Miami so this Florida sandwich may just be what Doeren ordered especially when you consider that the striped ones are 0-7 ATS away versus a foe with conference revenge. And that fits like an inevitably botched American football punt by an Australian kicker to the Pack s 11- ATS mark at home with conference revenge. Even a 4-1 ATS series history since 2010 favors State. All that and there s still room for The Clincher: Marc s Kick In The Assets angle from the 2007 BLACK BOOK points out the fact that undefeated road favorites from Game Five out, off a DD ATS win facing a.500 or greater conference foe off a SUATS win, are just ATS since IOWA over Maryland by 20 The 2-5 Terps came up with a big effort under interim HC Mike Locksley in last week s 1-0 loss to Penn State at Baltimore but the question becomes can Locksley get them off the mat knowing that defeat realistically ended any hopes for a third straight bowl campaign? Even if the answer is yes, the Hawkeyes have too much on the line to overlook the Turtles as an unbeaten regular season is looking more and more likely especially considering that Captain Kirk s crew fell, 8-1, in College Park last season. That also brings into play Iowa s 7-1 ATS mark with conference payback (2-0 ATS this year), as well as Maryland s 1-9 ATS log versus a foe with conference revenge. The Hawks are also 4-1 ATS with rest while the Terps are 1- ATS against rested opposition. You know we love to fade unbeaten squads but those are just too many one-sided numbers to buck and we haven t even factored in Iowa s 12-1 ATS record before facing Indiana or Mary s beat-up 1-6 ATS log after battling Penn State. The only concern is the host s 2-10 ATS mark as conference chalk of more than 14 points but with all the other numbers pointing towards Iowa City, the Eyes have it today at Kinnick Stadium. Mississippi over AUBURN by Ole Miss did it with defense last week as they held Texas A&M to points, which is only the second time since 200 the Aggies have scored less than 7 points. That effort was even more surprising with the absence of All- America DT Robert Nkemdiche, who sat out last week after going through concussion protocols. The Rebels find themselves at No. 21 in this week s Coaches Poll and, surprisingly, they are still in control of their own destiny in the SEC West a fact that has the SEC hierarchy up at night with the thought of Ole Miss winning the title as a 2-loss team. Auburn has cashed three straight at home in this series and five of six overall but this season they re only 1-6 ITS while allowing 68 YPG more then they gain. Now add in a draining 4 OT loss to Arkansas that certainly left a scar. It s a feeling you never want to experience, said freshman cornerback Carlton Davis, who finished with eight tackles and three pass break-ups. It s a painful feeling. It s like a nagging stab. So now we do what we do best: when the situation looks right to back one side, we ll flip sides. Mississippi is 1-9 ATS as road chalk off a win, including earlier this season when as a 7.5 favorite at Florida they came up on the short end of a 8-10 final. Finally, this is only Auburn s third appearance as a home dog in Gus Malzahan s career. FYI: he is 2-0 SUATS in this role, covering by 10 and 16 points. ARKANSAS ST over Georgia St by 14 The Red Wolves had one game circled during the preseason and it certainly wasn t a Georgia State team they beat last year. Arkansas State is off a double revenge win versus ULL, a team that gave them their lone home loss the last time they hosted them, which also cost ASU the Sun Belt Title. Payback, linebacker Xavier Woodson-Luster said. It feels good to finally beat them. Now, to make this sandwich even tastier, Arkansas State travels to Boone, North Carolina next week to face the only other undefeated conference team, Appalachian State. Georgia State continues to improve as evidenced by their 11- ATS record as road dogs. The Panthers also know that in their last visit here, they had a 142-yard edge (42-290) in a 5- loss despite being 24-point underdogs. With the visitor 2-0 ATS in this series, the Red Wolves bad number versus bad teams (1-6 ATS at home versus sub.500 teams playing with revenge) and the Panthers good number versus good teams (7-0 ATS away versus teams at.500 or better) makes this a take. Central Michigan over AKRON by 8 Winning on the road is never easy. I m just really proud of our kids for hanging in there and never throwing in the towel, first-year head coach John Bonamego said. We made the plays when we needed to make them... It just feels really good to get a win on the road and get back to.500. That after the Chippewas got their first road victory of 2015 in last week s 2-point win a Ball State, a game in which they dominated on the field, winning the stats Despite not covering last week and posting a 1- SU road record, we have no problem backing them here. Not many teams, let alone one from the MAC, can travel to Michigan State, Syracuse and Western Michigan and outgain EACH of them with a year-todate road average of +88 YPG. Akron stands at -4 on the season but when those two wins came against Eastern Michigan and Savannah State, we ll call that record tainted. The Zips also got bounced last week, 59-10, and their getting outscored 8-0 down the stretch has us fading them. Central has covered five of six in this series and has dominated to the tune of ATS as a MAC favorite of 7 or few points. Again. WASHINGTON over Arizona by 1 Both are off losses and while there is no embarrassment for the Huskies losing as 2 TD dogs at Stanford, the Wildcats dropping a home game as TD favorites over Washington State is quite another matter. These two teams are injury-riddled with most of Arizona s on the defensive side where they have already started 22 different players. Meanwhile, Washington will have at least three defensive starters questionable, as well as QB Jake Browning. Last season, Washington traveled to Tucson and looked to have pulled the upset as a 9.5-point underdog. Instead, the Huskies fumbled on first down with just over one minute left, allowing Arizona to convert a 47-yard FG with no time left. While those memories are surely remain clear to them, the Huskies are 0-7 ATS at home versus a foe off a SU loss as a favorite. We re not in the business of handicapping which trainers (at least not human trainers) will do a better job with the walking wounded, so we ll pass for now and check the elongated injuryreport later in the week. San Diego St over COLORADO ST by 11 The only thing we could find similar between these two foes is that both are off SU wins as 4-point conference home dogs. That was Colorado State s first MWC win as the Rams are -122 YPG in conference action. Not so for San Diego State, who is 4-0 in the MWC and +22 YPG versus conference foes. So why are the Aztecs only 4-point road chalk? We asked that same question as San Diego State is riding a riding 4-0 SUATS win streak, while holding three of its last four foes to season-low yards. Head coach Rocky Long s teams show as much improvement during the season as any and it s magnified down the stretch: his stop units have led the Aztecs to a 20-4 SU and ATS regular season record from Game Six out. Let s not forget that the sun worshippers have also won four in a row SU both in this series and at Fort Collins and each of San Diego State s last 1 wins overall have been by 10 or more points. The Rams are a strong fade from this week s SMART BOX (page ) and we couldn t agree more. page 6

7 Stanford over WASHINGTON ST by 6 Here is our version of a blind taste-test, where we compare each of these teams last three games. Team A played THREE home games versus UCLA, Washington and Arizona and went -0 SU, averaging +146 YPG. Team B played only ONE home game versus Oregon State while also traveling to Arizona and Oregon, yet they also went -0 SU while averaging +127 YPG. The numbers are close, yet team A (Stanford) is now traveling for the first time in four games with a No. 8 bulls-eye on their backs... and they re almost a two TD favorite! The Cardinal are also 1-4 ATS away off back-to-back-toback home games, and just 2-8 ATS the game after facing Washington. And while their defense was stout in their last road game, they allowed 275 passing yards to the No. 120-ranked Oregon State pass offense. Now they face the No. 4 ranked pass offense of Washington State, a team that has gained season-high yards versus their last two foes. The Cougars are also 5-1 ATS in Game Eight, and 8- ATS as conference home dogs of 8 or more points. With their confidence soaring after winning three straight Pac-12 wins for the first time since 200, we may be witnessing 5 BEST BET Georgia over Florida by 1 Jaybird The Bulldog, our SEC scout, got a call from a longtime Georgia season-ticket holder just minutes after the Dawgs outlasted Missouri, 9-6, in an epic snorefest two weeks ago. When Jay asked his friend if he was planning on making it to this year s Georgia-Florida game, the man replied, Jaybird, I would rather face open-heart surgery. Such is the mood in Athens as Mark Richt and company arrive as underdogs in today s meeting. The Gators were a favorite or pick em at the World s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party for six straight seasons under Urban Meyer, winning five of the six games on the scoreboard. But in the last four seasons, the Gators have been favored only once (6.5-point chalk in 2012), and they lost that one outright, With both teams off a Bye, the edge goes to Georgia head coach Richt who is -1 SUATS as a dog with rest. In addition, his teams are 5-1 ATS as dogs off three or more spread losses, and are seeking revenge for last year s 8-20 loss as 11.5-point favorites. We re in a one-game playoff, Georgia senior inside linebacker Jake Ganus said. It s do or die every Saturday for these next three SEC games. Win or go home, so we ve got to find a way to win. This rivalry has come down to running the ball as the team with the most rushing yards has won nine straight including last year when the Gators rushed for a mind-boggling 418 yards. However, it will likely be their Achilles heel here today as they re averaging a feeble 99 RYPG and only 2.9 YPR in conference action this season. And we d be remiss if we didn t mention the dreaded Bubble Burst hanging over the Gators heads. For details, read The Clincher: Marc s AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK on page 2. Usc over CALIFORNIA by 10 Relaxed [ri-lakst]: being free of or relieved from tension or anxiety. At 4- and coming off back-to-back losses with a player-friendly interim head coach in Clay Helton, USC displayed how much talent they still possess, and how well they can play free of pressure in their dismantling of Utah. While struggles playing under pressure may not help win a Pac-12 or National Championship, those don t concern us here as we look for another strong effort from the Trojans against a foe they ve beaten 11 straight times, covering five of the last six and cashing in each of their last six trips to Berkeley. We may have seen the Bears fall back to reality last week as UCLA scored on all six of its first-half possessions. Cal has struggled the game after facing the Bruins, going -7 ATS. The Bears have also gone 1-4 ATS before Oregon, 1-5 ATS in Game Eight and 1- ATS off a weekday game. California s situation may sound familiar to longtime PLAYBOOK readers as they are now suffering from Marc s Only The Good Die Young syndrome. As first explained in the 2009 BLACK BOOK, teams who start the season 5-0 or better and then suffer two losses in a row are a 19-5 ATS proposition at home in conference games. Now go ahead and mount that Trojan horse! Notre Dame over TEMPLE by ESPN s Game Day has been in Philadelphia for Penn-Harvard and will be back for Army-Navy, but when pigs fly is what 100% of you would have said this summer when asked of the chances of having Reece, Coach and the boys visit for a Temple football game. They re here primarily because the Owls are 7-0 for the first time ever in their 121-year history, thanks to a defense that shut out East Carolina in the second half last week. The Owls offense was flat, and Temple was outstatted for the game, but they still found a way to score 14 4th-quarter points. I told them it was the best win I had ever been part of, head coach Matt Rhule (the answer to this week s TRIVIA Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com TEASER on page 2) said after the game. I told the East Carolina kids as they left that they outplayed us and probably deserved to win. Meanwhile, the Irish are 1-4 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and 4-12 ATS after scoring over 40 points. And despite the hype, the Irish may very well be looking ahead to a revenge meeting with Pittsburgh next week. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly is 6-9 ATS as a road favorite of 8 or more points, including 1-4 ATS versus opponents with a.500 or better record. As for the Owls, they re now 6-0 ATS off back-to-back wins against a non-conference foe and 5-1 ATS as a home dog of over 4 points. To paraphrase song lyrics made famous by Jon Bon Jovi, the father of Notre Dame CB Jesse Bongiovi, the Irish are (a little more than) halfway there. Oh, and their College Football Playoff hopes are livin on a prayer with any win good enough. Georgia Tech over VIRGINIA by 1 Stanford-Cal had The Play, Auburn-Alabama The Kick Six and now we add The Miracle Blocked Field Goal to the list, which last week snapped the Yellow Jackets 5-game SUATS losing streak while handing Florida State its first defeat of the season. The question for Georgia Tech is now this: does that win give the Yellow Jackets enough momentum to win four of their last five games and become bowl-eligible? Or will it be a big-time letdown, allowing Virginia to claim one of the four wins it desperately needs to reach the postseason? Tech s defense finally played up its potential versus the Seminoles, holding star RB Dalvin Cook the only player with 1,000 rush yards and over 8.0 YPR to 82 yards and 4.8 YPR. This series has been dominated by the home team, cashing seven of the last eight, with the Cavaliers also 9-1 ATS after North Carolina. The numbers say back the host and with Georgia Tech having been a conference road favorite of more than a FG only twice since October of 201 (and failing to cover both), we won t be cavalier about backing the Cavs today. Oklahoma St over TEXAS TECH by 6 The Cowboys continue to fly under the radar, as they remain unbeaten with this being their toughest road game remaining. Last week, just hours after a homecoming tragedy took place, they pulled together and played perhaps their best game of the year, beating Kansas, The Pokes gained a season-high in yards and first downs while also allowing seasonlows in the same two categories and we expect that same passion this week. Oklahoma State is now using a 2-QB system with J.W. Walsh as the goal-line specialist and that move has made them much more productive in the red zone. Walsh s 7-0 ratio is bolstered by six rushing TDs and he accounted for five combined TDs in last week s game. Texas Tech was run over last week versus Oklahoma and to show how inept their defense was, the Sooners posted 5 first downs while running 79 plays, or just over a first down every two plays. The Red Raiders are only 2-6 ATS after Oklahoma and have been money-burners seeking revenge, going 2-6 ATS at home and 2-12 ATS with revenge versus an opponent off a SUATS win. It has been a Cowboy-dominated series of late, with Oklahoma State cashing five of six including three straight here in Lubbock. Look for more of the same. Oklahoma over KANSAS by 41 When you re perusing the fine list of newsletters available at PlaybookSuperstore.com, we re guessing that several will mention this is a trap game for Oklahoma with Baylor on deck. Don t buy it, as our Powerful Database tells us the Sooners are 9-1 ATS in the game prior to Baylor. Another indication to bypass any look-ahead thoughts is that Oklahoma has dominated the second half of games this year, outscoring every opponent in the second half by scores of 24-0, 1-7, 21-14, 20-17, 14-10, 20-0 and 5-10 last week. The reason for the Sooners second-half success is simple: when killing the clock, you run the ball and with a pair of quality backs such as Samaje Perine, who rushed for 201 yards and 4 TDs last week, and Joe Mixon, who rushed for 154 yards and 2 TDs. That s how to keep the chains moving! This week, OU s 2-back tandem gets to tee off on a KU defense that allows 245 YPG rushing and 5.5 YPR in conference action. Add in Oklahoma being 5-0 ATS Game Eight and 10-1 ATS after Texas Tech, and the Sooners should keep the scoreboard operator busy this afternoon. The Jayhawks have covered four straight in this series and are 5-2 ATS as home dogs of over 20 points, but they re also 2-10 ATS before Texas. To be brutally honest, Kansas fans are just waiting on the hoops season to start. page 7

8 BEST BET IOWA ST over Texas by The Longhorns failed to crash and burn following a monster win over Oklahoma as they derailed Kansas State in dreary, monsoonlike conditions last week, scoring with 1:47 remaining to grab the cover. Now they play only their third true road game of the season and while both foes (Notre Dame and TCU) were superior to this Iowa State squad, Texas TOTALED just 10 points and 28 first downs, proving how feeble the offense truly is. A quick glance shows the Cyclones are allowing 465 YPG but when we take away games versus the No. 2 pass offense of Texas Tech and the No. 5 pass offense of TCU, we discover they are only allowing 72 YPG... and this week they face Texas No. 122 pass offense. Iowa State s defense also just held Baylor to a seasonlow 485 yards, which is amazingly 25 yards below their average. Meanwhile, Iowa State s Paul Rhodes is 8-2 ATS at home off back-back losses versus sub.700 opponents. Our head coaching database supplies The Clincher: Texas Charlie Strong is 1-7 ATS as a conference favorite of 4 or more points off back-to-back straight up wins. PENN ST over Illinois by Rule No. 1 is that when you re favored in a football game, you have to score more than your opponent. Penn State has done that four times under head coach James Franklin. Rule No. 2 is that if you re favored in a football game by around a touchdown, you must win by more than a TD to cover. Therein lies the problems as the Nittany Lions have won exactly ONE Big Ten game by that margin in the season-and-a-half since Franklin became the coach. Including today s contest, Penn State finishes the season with six straight opponents that beat them last season. And while the Nits are already 0-2 ATS in that run, this game has the least meaning as (1) the Lions are off a SU win from last week and (2) last year s defeat was their road finale and came the week after their emotional, bowl-clinching win. The Illini have covered four of five in this series and have gone 6-1 ATS in trips to Happy Valley. They are playing very competitively this season in the conference under interim coach Bill Cubit, getting outgained by only 7 YPG despite being an underdog in each by over a TD. With Penn Statae again celebrating bowl eligibly and an offense averaging 40 YPG less than their hard-trying invader, it s Illini-time again. HOUSTON over Vanderbilt by 20 Winning a conference game isn t that big of a deal unless you re Vanderbilt HC Derek Mason, who lost his first 11 SEC games in a row before finally breaking his maiden last week. Now the Commodores are traveling for the fourth time in five weeks with SEC revengers versus Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Tennessee yet to come. Vandy is now 1- ATS as a double-digit non-conference dog and is no stranger to taking points versus non-power 5 teams: this year they were took 2.5 points at home versus WKU and the same 2.5 versus Middle Tennessee at LP Field, but could only muster a 1-1 SU record. Houston has revenge from the Compass Bowl loss in 201 and is 5-0 ATS in the first of three straight home games. While we hate laying points into an SEC team, but it s much easier when they have yet to score over 17 points versus any FBS for this year. These Cougars under new HC Tom Herman have shown they can handle the pressure as they already went into Louisville, departing with a 4-1 win and a yard edge, before finishing last week with 52 unanswered points versus UCF to overcome a 10-7 deficit. We ll continue to ride their momentum while Vanderbilt s -8 SU and 2-9 ATS mark in games off a SU underdog win cements it. TEXAS A&M over South Carolina by 21 Interim HC Shawn Elliot led USC (East) to its first SEC win this season but needed a + turnover ratio to accomplish it. While securing a victory over Vanderbilt, the depth to which this team has truly fallen was on display as they were 1-point home favorites after laying 22.5 on the road the previous year. Now off a Bye, the Gamecocks make their first road trip in a decade without the Ol Ball Coach. The Aggies will welcome them with open arms, ready to take out their frustrations after back-back losses including only the second time a Kevin Sumlin-coached team was held to under 7 points. A&M s offense has averaged 518 YPG excluding Alabama, while South Carolina has allowed each of their three SEC road opponents to score FBS season-highs in points. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, 1-5 ATS after Vanderbilt and only 1-4 ATS with conference revenge. Cocky s plumage continues to wither. Tennessee over KENTUCKY by 10 It s rare that Wildcats fans were excited in late October about a sport not played on the hardwood. Kentucky started this season 4-1, including 2-1 in the SEC, but those wins came against what we know were this year s bottom-tier teams in South Carolina and Missouri. After an all-out effort in a -point loss to Auburn, the wheels have come off and disappointment has set in after a 26-point loss to Mississippi State. It s not hard to regroup when we ve got Tennessee coming in next week, quarterback Patrick Towles said after the game. We feel like they didn t get our best shot last year, so we re excited about this one. We ve got to play like we ve got a big chip on our shoulder. On the flip side, Tennessee may own only one win in their last four games, but when the losses were to Florida, Arkansas and Alabama by a total of 11 points HC Butch Jones can use it as a building block. Tennessee s defensive line had its best game of the season against one of the SEC s best offensive lines in Bama. The Crimson Tide had allowed just eight sacks going into the game, but the Vols finished the day with five. A few weeks ago in in the Michigan/Michigan State game, we stated that sometimes it s good to be the little brother. In this case, though, it s better to be the Big Brother (Tennessee 7-1 SUATS in the last eight series games). And finally this from the all-knowing database: the last nine SEC teams who lost but covered the spread to Alabama are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in follow up games. With the stands at Commonwealth Stadium filled with as much orange as blue, we ll expect another win and cover by the Vols tonight. UTAH over Oregon St by 20 Here s a tough nut to crack. We feel the Utes can t be trusted tonight after they saw their perfect season and prospects of making the College Football Playoffs go down the drain in last Saturday s sobering setback against USC. The problem is we can t really make a case for the down-and-out Beavers, not when last week s Behind The 8-Ball SMART BOX fades OSU in a major way off its SU favorite loss to Colorado. Firstyear HC Gary Andersen is probably wishing he d stayed at Wisconsin instead of taking over this crumbling program, and his chances of cashing only the team s second ticket in 2015 don t look good: Oregon State is a dismal 1-6 ATS when playing with Pac-12 revenge of late and just 2-5 as a conference dog of more than 21 points. However, Utah hasn t done much better in today s role, going 0-5 ATS as chalk of 11 or more points versus conference foes and covering only two of the last six series meetings with the Beavers. The Utes will be glad to be back at Rice-Eccles Stadium where they re undefeated this season but after plummeting from No. 7 to No. 14 in the Amway Coaches Poll following Saturday s Hindenburg-sized Bubble Burst, they ll force us to put on the brakes here. If you re still interested, start crackin. CINCINNATI over C Florida by 28 Never have we seen a quality program disintegrate from one season to the next as quickly as Central Florida s. As a result, embattled 12-year HC George O Leary has called it quits. In an effort to allow UCF to accelerate its search for my successor and clarify the facts regarding my future plans, I am retiring effective immediately, O Leary announced on Sunday after a beatdown by Houston dumped his Knights to 0-8. Quarterbacks coach Danny Barrett (ironically a UC grad) steps up as interim head coach but his prospects for finding the winner s circle are non-existent in today s high-noon clash at the Queen City. And while Cincinnati has failed to register back-to-back wins all season, the Bearcats three defeats came against unbeaten Temple, unbeaten Memphis and 6-2 BYU a far cry from facing this bunch of tarnished Knights. Cincy will also benefit from the fact that QB Gunner Kiel appears to have won his job back. It hurt, Kiel said when asked what it was like to be on the sidelines watching redshirt freshman Hayden Moore take his place. To finally be back out there is the best feeling ever. Head coach Tommy Tuberville added, I think he s going to be real hard to get that No. 1 position away from. Kiel shouldn t have much trouble today against a Central Florida defense that s given up a whopping 8.2 yards per pass this year. One of the day s most lopsided stats also favors the hosts: Cincy is outgaining AAC opponents by 26 YPG this season while the Knights are losing ground to conference foes by 176 YPG. With the Bearcats now 5-1 ATS when playing home off a previous home game and a new captain aboard the UCF Titanic, there s only one way to look here. FLORIDA ST over Syracuse by 17 While both teams are down after heartbreaking losses last week, the Bubble Burst suffered by Jimbo Fisher s Seminoles was one of the most gut-busting ever witnessed in college football. It s clearly the most punishing we ve seen since Auburn s Kick Six win over Alabama in 201 and Michigan s stunning last-second giveaway to the Spartans two weeks ago. Ironically, the Florida State field goal that was blocked and returned 68 yards for the game-winning score by Georgia Tech s Lance Austin was the Seminoles first offensive turnover of the year and it was the first time they ve worn Garnet in a true road game since visiting Tech in 2008 (they lost that game, too). So with FSU having its 28-game conference winning page 8

9 streak snapped and, like Utah, in serious jeopardy of falling out of the playoff race we re not exactly eager to lay the big wood against a Syracuse team that was shafted on the final play of the game for the second week in a row! Even worse for the Noles, they ve got to take care of business here with no less than big, bad Clemson waiting on the horizon. FSU is a notso-encouraging 2-6 ATS before tangling with the Tigers while the Orange touch down in Tallahassee with a 7- ATS record in the first of back-to-back road games. Da Cuse has also cashed in three of its last four outings this season, including a solid cover against mighty LSU in late September. Top it off with Marc s AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK on page 2 and we ve gone from a mere liking to a genuine Orange crush. Grab the points! UL-LAFAYETTE over UL-Monroe by 10 Today s battle for the UL-Hyphen Trophy finds both Louisiana schools in dire straits. If not for woeful New Mexico State, ULM would find itself at rock-bottom in the current Sun Belt standings. And if not for scheduling FCS patsy Nicholls State (0-12 in 2014), the Warhawks would currently be nesting atop a win-column goose egg in Looziana ain t much better but at least the Ragin Cajuns enter off a few extra days rest since dropping a 10-point decision to Arkansas State last Tuesday. That defeat did not sit well with Lafayette s Jr. redshirt QB Jalen Nixon, who vowed change would take place when the Cajuns square off with their in-state rivals. I m going to make sure me, as a leader I ll be on the team harder than I ever have been and challenging people, because we cannot accept losing, Nixon said. We can t accept being at 2-4. That s not a reflection of our program. We re better than that. Nixon has a good shot at backing up the tough talk as UL-Monroe s shaky defense has allowed season-high yards in its last two outings, including an embarrassing 14-point defeat at Idaho, and the Warhawks are a dreadful 0-6 SU and ITS in FBS matchups this season. A few rays of hope for ULM: the series visitor has covered in five straight games and 10 of the last 11 get-togethers, while the last 16 meetings have produced 10 outright upsets. Despite the good history, it s difficult backing a near-cellar-dweller like Monroe against a Cajun bunch that s claimed the cash in five of the last seven series matchups. Worse for the Warhawks, they re being outgained by 258 YPG in Sun Belt contests this year while ULL has enjoyed a 11 YPG edge. The bottom line is this Halloween afternoon hatefest looks to be all trick and no treat. Pass. W Kentucky over OLD DOMINION by 28 It s called adding insult to injury. Not only did Old Dominion get whacked by FIU, 41-10, despite putting up almost 500 yards of offense, Monarchs QB David Washington who passed for four TDs while leading his team to a 7-4 victory over Charlotte the previous week was knocked out of the game with just 10 minutes remaining and did not return. ODU head coach Bobby Wilder confirmed that Washington would be unavailable for today s early start, replaced by redshirt freshman Shuler Bentley. That s a pretty tough pill to swallow, especially with the Monarchs now 0-9 ATS off a SU loss, and just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games, including 0-6 ATS this season. Yikes! No chance the Hilltoppers will come in overconfident after getting schooled by No. 4 LSU at Death Valley last Saturday, WKU s 20 points scored against the Tigers marked its lowest output since managing just 14 in a season-opening road win at Vandy. Despite being outpointed 4-1 in the second half of the loss, head coach Jeff Brohm remained optimistic. I think we came here ready to play, said Brohm. We battled and gave them a football game. Of course you want to win, and it would ve been great to do that, but that s an outstanding football team. They re 7-0 for a reason. They re 4-0 in the SEC for a reason. The Hilltoppers may own a troublesome 0-5 ATS mark of late as conference chalk versus a foe playing with revenge but with top-notch QB Brandon Doughty facing a defense he can dominate here, ODU will simply be unable to trade points and stay close. Lay it if you play it. SOUTHERN MISS over Utep by 27 How bout them Eagles? Talk about a rags-to-riches saga: their win over Charlotte last week moved SMissy to 5- on the year and those five wins are more than the Golden Eagles win total from the previous three seasons combined. It s big now, third-year Southern Miss head coach Todd Monken said. When you get to five, you know what the next one is (bowl eligibility). USM has also made a big leap forward on the big board. During the aforementioned -year run of futility, the Eagles were favored five times and lost all five outright (they were also underdogs in 18 straight games heading into 2015). But this season, Monken s men have won and covered all three of their appearances as chalk in lined contests! The result? Southern Miss is favored by over three TDs at Roberts Stadium this afternoon, a spread the team has laid only five times in the past ten years. Normally, we might challenge that, especially with UTEP coming off an out-of-nowhere victory over Florida Atlantic last week. Miners head coach Sean Kugler was positively ecstatic over the win. I m extremely proud, Kugler said. Coming off the bye week, people are on your tails, people are not expecting us to do anything, we were beat up. I m proud of the way we fought. Stirring words, coach K, but the truth is a pair of goal line turnovers by FAU actually did the trick. The reality is UTEP s soft D has yielded 496 YPG to FBS foes this season, and allowed FIU and New Mexico 27 PPG and 179 YPG more than they normally gain. Meanwhile, the hungry Eagles are outgaining conference opponents by a whopping 21 YPG in Along with a -1 SU and 4-0 ATS mark at Hattiesburg this season, a healthy dose of double revenge should spur the Eagles to break open the 6-win champagne today. FLA ATLANTIC over Florida Int l by 1 No, it ain t Michigan versus Ohio State, but with Miami high-tailing it out of town for a date in Durham, this combination Homecoming / Halloween clash between crosstown rivals should be the hottest-selling ticket in South Florida this weekend. But that s just so people can dress in bizarre costumes and go trick-or-treating in the FAU dorms later that evening. As for the football game, not so much. Florida Atlantic s 1-6 record pales next to FIU s 4-4 mark but the Owls nonetheless have a few things in their favor. The dog has cashed in four of the last five meetings, winning three games outright, and the International boys are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten versus foes off a SU favorite loss. FIU is also starting to get a bit one-dimensional on offense. In last Saturday s rout of Old Dominion, 90 of the Panthers 484 yards gained came courtesy of QB Alex McGough s arm, a 1-of-9 passing performance that enabled the black cats to score the game s final 27 points. Don t see that happening today, not with FAU looking to get even for last season s 8-10 pounding at FIU. We like Homecoming dogs with revenge, especially in rivalries like this. NOTE: check status of SR QB Jaquez Johnson he s huge for the Owls chances of success here. We may upgrade this play on the Weekend Update Phone should we confirm his status. Utsa over NORTH TEXAS by 8 While inhabitants of central and southern Texas are being tormented by major flooding, the citizens of Denton (north of Dallas) are suffering through their own cruel fate: being fans of the North Texas Mean Green. To say the bottom has fallen out of this program is an understatement. Less than two years ago, these guys went 9-4 and clobbered UNLV in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. They ve won just four games since, falling to 0-7 this year after a road loss to Marshall last week, the second contest since interim coach Mike Canales took over for Dan McCarney, who was fired five games into the season. But just as it s hard to take the points with a garbage-can team like UNT, it s equally as tough to lay the number with the 1-6 Roadrunners. For openers, they re 0-5 ATS off a SUATS loss versus a foe off loss. They also lost the stats, , in a 22-point loss to Southern Miss last week. Most concerning, though, is the Alamo boys lack of experience. UTSA head coach Larry Coker (don t hold your breath waiting on a call from Miami, Mr. C) has been so beset with injuries that he s put 18 first-time starters on the field for San Antonio this season. Wow, we re not even sure Carnac The Magnificent could correctly pick the outcome of this tragedy. Our advice to you is not to mess with Texas and avoid this game like the plague. DUKE over Miami Florida by 7 We were on the phone last week with Jaybird The Bulldog, our SEC scout, while watching the closing moments of the first half between Clemson and Miami Florida. When the Tigers scored on a 6-yard TD run with under a minute remaining to take a 42-0 lead, Jaybird remarked, I can tell you one thing about this game: when it s over, there will NOT be a traffic jam in the parking lot. Yes, after Miami suffered its worst loss in school history, the Fire Al Golden sky banner usually seen above Sun Life Stadium will no longer be necessary: one day after AD Blake James suggested Golden might be allowed to finish the season, the school did an about-face and gave Al his walking papers. Golden leaves with a 2-25 record at the school and a disappointing mark in the ACC. However, the Miami brain trust should have considered giving him another week since Al posted a -1 SUATS effort against the Blue Devils during his tenure. Good news, though, for interim HC Larry Scott: the Hurricanes are a smokin 10-1 SU in the last 11 games versus Duke (favored in all 11). And though the media is ready to bury the Miami program, the Canes still own a winning record for the season, and close their schedule with four winnable contests. That being said, we d like to see how Miami reacts to losing not only a brutal game to Clemson, but also their head coach and starting quarterback (Brad Kaaya questionable with concussion). The Blue Devils should come in high as kites after their historic 4-overtime win at Virginia Tech (Duke s 12th win in its last 1 road games). Ironically, HC David Cutcliffe was on the losing end of the longest CFB game ever played, a 7-OT affair against Arkansas in One good sign for Cutcliffe here: the series host has covered four of the last five meetings. We re not one for laying points with perennial series dogs (continued on next page) page 9

10 Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com but these Blue Devils are sneaky good (25-9 SU and 22-9 ATS since start of 201) and the Hurricanes may be trying to find their bearings. With no line at press time, we ll pass for now. SMU over Tulsa by We thought great things might await the Mustangs this season after they beat North Texas in Week Two and put 7 on the board in a losing effort against TCU the following Saturday. But with an 0-4 SU and 1- ATS slide (outscored by over 18 PPG) since chasing the Horned Frogs, it turns out that SMU is just one big tease. Funny thing, though: sometimes we like being teased. It s not that hard when the Ponies have dominated this series spreadwise for the last 10 years, going 8-2 ATS overall, 4-1 ATS on this field and 9-1 ATS as underdogs. Tulsa doesn t show up barefoot today, boasting an impressive 11-1 ATS mark on the road after scoring 5 or more points, including -0 ATS this season. SMU head coach Chad Morris, who also appears to have been fooled by his team s fast start, had this to say after a disappointing 24-point loss at lowly USF last week: Offensively I was very disappointed with the way we played. Jeez, that s more terrifying than a Nick Saban rant, particularly in light of the fact that the Mustangs outgained the Bulls in the defeat. Tulsa does Dallas after losing a shootout against unbeaten Memphis last Friday night, a game that saw Hurricane WR Keyarris Garrett set an American Athletic Conference record with 14 catches for 268 yards and three touchdowns. We like fading recordsetting teams and players in their next outing and will continue to do so here. Mustangs notch win No. 2 on a dog-day afternoon in Texas. Va Tech over BOSTON COLLEGE by 7 Hokies limp into Beantown after being upset in their last two contests, the most recent a spirit-draining 4-overtime loss to Duke in the rain at Lane Stadium. Now sitting at -5, Virginia Tech is in serious jeopardy of staying home for the holiday for the first time since 199 under HC Frank Beamer unless the Gobblers win three of their final four games. Remember, this was supposed to be the year that the Hokies at least threatened to return to their championship level, when double-digit win seasons were the norm. Instead, it s a fourth straight year of irrelevance in the Coastal Division race and scrambling in the final month of the season just to get to one of the ACC s lower-tiered bowls. Hey, with coaches dropping like flies this week, it s probably safe to say that even coaching legend Frank Beamer will be on the hot seat if this team blows his bowl streak. But while the Hokies are likely to be in desperation mode today, Boston College will continue to lose close games because of its sputtering offense (three of BC s five losses came by a total of 8 points). The Eagles attack keeps falling deeper into the abyss each week, averaging an anemic 9 points and 24 yards per game versus FBS opposition this season. And things may not improve with backup QB Troy Flutie having to finish last week s game when stater Jeff Smith was squashed on a TD run. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS at Chestnut Hill versus a foe with revenge (beat the Hokies, -1, in Blacksburg LY) and have lost five straight to the number before playing NC State. Desperate trumps hapless every time. Lay it. Idaho over NEW MEXICO ST by 1 It s party time in Moscow, and we re not talking about the communist party. The confetti and streamers are for the University of Idaho Vandals, riding a 2-game win streak for the first time since 2009! And if you can wrap your head around this, the Spud boys could actually go bowling if they win their next two over New Mexico State and South Alabama, then close out the regular season with a victory over Texas State. However, before things get too giddy, we should point out that the last time Idaho laid points on the road it was right here to these same Aggies in 2011 and the Vandals lost the whole game, They certainly should catch NMSU in a depressed state after the Aggies were battered, shattered, creamed and reamed by 1-win Troy in last week s Homecoming game, That is the head coach s fault when your team goes out and looks like we did tonight, said HC Doug Martin, whose team dropped to 0-7 on the season and 0- in the Sun Belt Conference. I apologize to NMSU fans and people who care about the program because that was a complete embarrassment. I m totally responsible for that. We will never look like that again. Hmmm, doesn t that sound an awful lot like what Al Golden told the media after last week s burial by Clemson? Our all-knowing database didn t get all that excited over this heavyweight clash, either, pointing out that the series host has won the last five games SU on the scoreboard. That s it. Sorry, but we ll need a lot more than that before we buddy up to one of these losers. It won t be on TV so, why get involved? MEMPHIS over Tulane by 24 We re curious as to the dollar amount in Memphis head coach Justin Fuente s buyout clause because you know the Big Boys will be coming after him with open checkbooks before the season even ends. As for Fuente s Tigers, they just keep rolling along on an incredible 14-game win skein. This from a program that won just five games in the three years prior to JF s arrival. Even so, no team is immune to an occasional letdown and a mega-letdown is in order for the Tigers following last week s impressive trouncing of the Golden Hurricane at Tulsa. And while Memphis QB Paxton Lynch has the look of a quarterback about to go No. 1 in next year s draft, the tariff on this game has us thinking green as in the Wave. Hey, when you re getting almost 4 TDs and a quality player like Navy QB Keenan Reynolds warns you that 2-5 Tulane is seriously underrated, it could be time to listen. Tulane is really good, said Reynolds after the Green Wave rush defense held Navy to 202 fewer yards on the ground than its season average in last week s 1-14 loss to the Middies. They definitely get after it. With the visitors now 6-2 ATS when playing with conference revenge, and Memphis just 1-7 ATS in the first of consecutive home games, we ll see if the praise is justified in the Liberty Bowl tonight. Take it or leave it. Michigan over MINNESOTA by 7 If there was one guy in the country that had to breathe a huge sigh of relief when Georgia Tech s Kick Six, Part Two toppled Florida State last Saturday night, it was Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. Victimized by a similarly unbelievable ending in the Wolverines home loss to Michigan State on the game s final play (Grantland s Matt Hinton called it, the single most soul-crushing sports moment I ve ever witnessed ), Harbaugh can argue that the Wolverines are not cursed and can regroup after such a harrowing defeat. It s about that resolve, the steel in our spine, Harbaugh said. We move forward. There s a lot of fight in our guys, and I m proud of that. The Golden Gophers are another disappointed team after last week s 2-point loss to Nebraska, a game where Minnesota s defense allowed a season-high 48 points. Before that game, however, Jerry Kill s D had allowed just 19 PPG and a season-high mark of 27 points. I don t think the mood s bad, Kill said. They were disappointed after the Nebraska game, but there s a lot of football to be played. At least the Gophers got All-Big Ten cornerback Briean Boddy-Calhoun back from a knee injury after missing the previous two games. Minny also needs two more wins to become bowl-eligible and faces a closing slate of Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. Michigan heads to TCF Bank Stadium with a 6-1 ATS series record against Minnesota in their pocket, not to mention a perfect 6-0 ATS road mark when playing off a SU loss. But the Wolverines are also a mere 2-9 ATS away from Ann Arbor when seeking conference revenge and the Gophers can claim an eye-popping 7-0 ATS record as home dogs of 8 or more points. All things considered, we like Michigan to eke out a close win while Kill and company pocket the loot. Boise St over UNLV by 17 Despite the record number of head coaches that seemed to whine about poor performances last week, no one put it more succinctly than UNLV s Tony Sanchez after his Rebels lost as road chalk to struggling Fresno State, That was an abomination, declared Sanchez. That was bad football. Despite the first-year head coach s willingness to take blame for his team s poor effort, the 2-5 Rebs are simply not where they want to be at this stage of the season. Meanwhile, as expected, Boise State got back into the win column after having its bubble burst to all the way to Glendale and back in a blowout by Utah State, but the.5-point favorite Broncos failed to grab the green with a 20-point decision over a 1-win Wyoming squad. True freshman quarterback Brett Rypien, who committed five turnovers against Utah State, was back to the solid form he showed in his previous starts for BSU, going 22-for-28 for 211 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. Both teams are armed with good numbers in this afternoon matchup from Sin City: Boise is 18-4 ATS when playing off a win and facing a losing foe off back-to-back defeats while UNLV owns a surprising 7-0 ATS mark as double-digit dogs off consecutive losses. These two last met in 2011 and 2012, and despite 25 and 27-point wins for Big Blue, the Broncos failed to cover in either meeting. Look for more of the same at Sam Boyd Stadium today. UCLA over Colorado by 24 Things are a bit tense in Westwood these days. Even after beating previously ranked California last Thursday at the Rose Bowl, 40-24, UCLA head coach Jim Mora was in a combative mood, loudly cursing at a UCLA official as he entered the postgame news conference. Mora still hasn t gotten over being page 10

11 knocked for a loop when his Bruins were manhandled in back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Stanford, and a win over Cal won t be enough to quiet the masses. Cue the Buffaloes, who have been lost and wandering since bolting from Big 12 pastures (8-2 SU versus Pac-12 foes), and are always ripe for a beating by upper-echelon conference programs like the Bruins. Ralphie brings some wretched numbers to Pasadena, going 1-5 ATS as a conference dog of 19 or more points, and -7 ATS away from Boulder when seeking conference revenge. And with Colorado off its first Pac-12 win after 14 straight league losses, there ll be no sneaking up on the Bruins this afternoon. UCLA winds up the regular season with road trips to Utah and USC, so look for Mora to keep the pedal to the metal here. Freshman wonder QB Josh Rosen got back in the groove against Cal with TD passes, zero picks and 99 aerial yards. Toss in a Colorado rush defense that gets gouged for 5.1 yards per carry and we know where our bread is buttered. Lay it. Air Force over HAWAII by 11 The Norm Chow Farewell Tour wasn t supposed to go this way. Now in his 4rd year as a college football coach, many hoped the affable Chow would go out on a winning note in his final season as head coach at Hawaii. But after a fifth consecutive loss, the 2-6 Warriors (0-4 in the MWC) look like they ll be home for the holidays for a fifth straight year. UH s underachieving record is no accident: the Islanders have gone 1-6 ITS in FBS games this campaign and are -9 in turnovers in conference games. Air Force ain t exactly a powerhouse, losing three of its last five games, but the Falcons are -1 in the Mountain West playoff chase and rack up a respectable 44 YPG on offense. Yes, laying a touchdown seems like a lot for a team looking for its first road win of the season but if you think that number s rich, consider this: Air Force is winning the stats by 115 YPG in MWC games this season while Hawaii losing is losing them by 140 YPG. It s a virtual certainty that the Flyboys will outrush Hawaii tonight, and they re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 outings when outrushing their opponent. Air Force hastens the end of an era in Honolulu by handing Chow his seventh loss of the year. PRO FOOTBALL Thursday, October 29 NEW ENGLAND over Miami by 10 It would be easy to join the Campbell soup line for a free taste of Dolphin this week but we ve never been one to ask for a handout. We turn instead to our primary source of nourishment the well-oiled machine for all the fodder we need in this AFC East division tilt. For openers, we find a quarterback in Tom Brady who has carved up division foes when playing off a pair of wins, going 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS including 4-0 SUATS versus sub.500 foes in his career with New England. In addition, the Patriots stand 15-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back division games. Meanwhile, the Fish have struggled in Foxboro when facing Brady (16/1 TD INT ratio this season), going 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS, and are currently 0-4 ATS as road dogs versus.750 or greater foes. With NFL teams who are off back-to-back spread wins of 0 or more points now 0- SUATS since 1990, look for the Pats to continue to play the Deflategate chip to their advantage once again tonight. Sunday, November 1 Kansas City over Detroit by 7 London calls for the final time this season and with it, you have to give the NFL its due. Where else but in England can they produce a game between two NFL dregs and gain primetime billing and worldwide viewership? It s the fifth time they have paired losing teams together in this battle of English muffins. And according to our all-knowing database, favorites playing at Wembley Stadium with the better record are now 8-1 SU and 6- ATS, with Buffalo blowing in this role last week. Andy Reid is -0 SU and 2-1 ATS in his career against the Lions, but 0-5 SUATS his last five games against teams from the NFC North. The Lions have problems of their own, with a coaching staff shakeup this week after having surrendered season-high yards in each of their last two games. And bouncing back after a meeting with Minnesota has been a task for Detroit, too as evidenced by its 0-5 ATS mark in games after facing the Vikings. We re not sure finding an answer to all their woes will happen across the pond, either. Can we add Jim Caldwell to the dead list of NFL coaches getting the pink slip after lounging in London? Stay tuned? NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded. Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com CHICAGO over Minnesota by 6 Surprise. If the NFL playoffs were to start this week, one of these two NFC North rivals would have a ticket... and it s not the Bears. Mike Zimmer s Vikings were pretty much a Vegas wise guy pick in the preseason and they have not disappointed, breaking out to a 4-2 start and a second-place standing in the Black-and-Blue division. To remain in the talk, however, they must do something they haven t been able to accomplish since 2012 the last year they went to the playoffs and that s to win three consecutive games. We do know they ve failed miserably when playing in a division game off a division game and are facing an avenging foe, going -1 ATS in this role when they own a.500 or greater record. On the other side of the coin, the in-and-out hibernating Bears are 6-1 SUATS the last seven games as a host in this series. And behind a sneaky good defense, they have also held no less than four opponents to season-low yards this year under John Fox and DC Vic Fangio. We smell an upset. ATLANTA over Tampa Bay by 1 One has to wonder how the young Bucs will respond after blowing a 24-0 lead at Washington last week. Our best guess is they will be unfazed by it all. Behind the league s 5th best overall defense and an offense that is getting better by the week, Lovie Smith s charges know they were demolished, 56-14, here last year and will be looking for atonement. Tampa s 7-1 ATS record versus opponents off back-to-back away games is certainly encouraging. As is its 6-0 ATS in 4th away games of the season the past six years. Atlanta regrouped, albeit barely, off its first loss of the campaign when they edged out winless Zach Mettenberger (0-7 as a starter in the NFL) and the banged up Titans last week. We re still not convinced the Dirty Birds are for real and with it, we ll fade the fowls 2-7 SUATS mark at home in games off back-to-back travelers in this Johnny Depp special. 5 BEST BET NEW ORLEANS over NY Giants by 1 To say the Giants cost us and the Cowboys dearly last week would be an understatement. Thanks to the latest Dallas pick machine (aka Matt Cassel), New York managed to survive a negative yardage differential and escape with a 7-point win and cover over the Boys last week. Don t expect Drew Brees to be as gratuitous in the Superdome this Sunday, though, where he has been picked only once this season. New York s 0-6 ATS away mark when facing foes with single revenge-exact (beat the Saints, in New York in last meeting in 2012) helps set the table. And its 0-5 SUATS record in nondivision games after facing the Cowboys compliments it. On the flip side, New Orleans 4-0 ATS mark as a host in this series works hand in hand with its -0 SUTS log at home against NFC East opposition. After snapping a puzzling 6-game home losing skid with a pair of wins and covers in their last two home games, the home-loving Saints appear back on track in the Dome. The Clincher: Saints head coach Sean Payton is 20-2 SU and 18-4 ATS home with New Orleans in games versus non-division opponents off a SU win. ST. LOUIS over San Francisco by 11 You have to feel sorry for Jim Tomsula. A hard worker and a good guy, he inherits one of the most coveted jobs in the NFL with a Homeland pipe bomb planted in his office, while having to give off the look of a man brimming with confidence that he can take down the Ayatollah. You know he s sweating bullets given the ragged performance of his team, winless away and in the division this season. Could it have anything to do with the fact his squad has been outscored in NFC West games, and on the road, in his tenure? We re guessing it also has to do with Frisco s 0-6 ATS log away between home games when facing division opponents. Or perhaps the fact that the leader of your ground troops, QB Colin Kaepernick, gets blown to hell as a dog in division duels (1-6 SU and ATS, scoring 17 total points in his last three tries. Al Qaeda, err, the Rams are 7-0 ATS after playing an AFC opponent and 6-1 ATS in games after (continued on next page) page 11

12 surrendering less than 10 points when facing a foe off a double-digit loss. If it weren t for Jeff Fisher s soft heart as a favorite, we d be ready to declare San Francisco in a state of emergency. Arizona over CLEVELAND by 10 Oh my. How is it Mike Pettine prepares for a visit from the NFC West division leaders after watching them manhandle AFC North rival Baltimore this past Monday night? Without much sleep, we guarantee you. Only the fact that the Cardinals had a punt blocked in the waning moments of the game kept them from securing the spread. And then we learn this from Marc s USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY column: Bruce Arians is 26-4 SU and ATS versus.500 or less opponents, including 12-0 SU and ATS ATS when the foe is playing off an away game. Tie that to the Redbirds 8-0 ATS away record versus. or less opponents and you now know why Pettine has not had much sleep this week. Then, just as he s about to close his eyes for an hour or so, it hits him: the Browns are 0-4 SUATS all-time against.600 or greater NFC West opposition. It s lights out in the Dawg Pound this week. Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH by 1 Lots of history and trends supporting Pittsburgh in this mega-huge AFC North division contest on Sunday and we re not biting... just yet. Yes, it would be easy to jump on the 4- Steelers trailing the 6-0 Bengals. Especially knowing the Steel Curtain is 10-2 SU and ATS at home off a loss of 10 or more points, and standing 6-2 SUATS the last eight games as a host in this series. And that s not to mention Cincinnati s 1-8 ATS record when playing to avenge three consecutive losses suffered against an opponent. Our problem is that 5-0 or greater undefeated teams playing with a week of rest in the NFL are 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS since At press time, Cincy is a 1.5-point favorite, leaving us in a quandary for the moment. But with Big Ben due back this week, this line is certain to settle in once an official announcement is made. We ll likely have more on this game at that time. Note: be sure to listen in to Marc s AGAINST THE SPREAD Football Podcast this Thursday at for more up-to-the-minute insight on this game. BALTIMORE over San Diego by 4 A matchup of hard luck teams finds the 2-5 Chargers taking on the 1-6 Ravens in Baltimore this Sunday. And with that we ask, Who da thunk it? Not when the Ravens season win total was 9, and San Diego s 8, at the start of the 2015 campaign. Making matters worse for the Bolts is another east coast 10 AM body clock start time (they are 0- SU and 1-2 ATS this season in early kicks). Thanks to Philip Rivers bionic arm, Diego has actually outgained each of its last five foes despite suffering losses in four of the games. The problem is they are 1-5 ATS in games after facing the Raiders. The Ravens check in at 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS as home favorites before a Bye week, and will likely be giving their all in an effort to not be a 1-7 team at the break. As IBM once proudly said, You Make The Call. HOUSTON over Tennessee by 6 Yet another game circled with quarterback issues. This time it s whether or not Marcus Mariota will make it back behind center for the Titans. One thing is for certain he d better be if Tennessee stands any chance of snapping a 5-game losing skid. There is only so much a Top 5-ranked defense can do before eventually breaking its back trying to support a nonexistent offense. And rest assured, backup QB Zach Mettenberger and his 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS career mark as a starter in the NFL is a non-existent answer. Certainly not with the Titans just 1-9 ATS versus opponents that allowed 40 or more points last game. The good news for Houston, who returns home from its massacre in Miami, is a 5-1 ATS log in its next game after allowing 5 or more points. That, and Brian Hoyer s shiny ATS mark in games off a SUATS loss throughout his NFL career. But because it s not in our nature to lay points with inferior defenses where the hell is J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, anyway we re forced to take a seat on the sideline in this AFC South division debacle. New York Jets over OAKLAND by 6 The Jets gave their all against the win-machine at New England last week. So now the question begs: is there anything left in the tank for this week s coast-to-coast matchup? After all, the Flyboys are 0-6 ATS after playing the Patriots when facing an avenging opponent (beat Oakland, 19-14, in season opener last year). What we do like, though, is the moxie of this team behind first-year mentor Todd Bowles. They just happen to be the only team in the loop that has outgained EVERY opponent they ve faced this season. They are also 16-4 SUATS in games with a win percentage of more than.400 when facing an AFC West foe off a win. The Raiders enter off a huge win over division rival San Diego, sporting a 1-10 ATS record in games after playing the Chargers when seeking revenge against a nondivision opponent. Oakland s 2-1 SU and -12 ATS mark in games off a SU division win cements it. 4 BEST BET Seattle over DALLAS by 16 We understand Jerry Jones logic in starting Matt Cassel over Brandon Weeden in the absence of star QB Tony Romo. After all, despite an impressive 71-for-98 with 78 yards and a 92.1 QB Rating, Weeden is 0-12 SUATS in his last twelve NFL starts... and that s the bottom line. Cassel s NFL career record in home starts isn t a lot better though, just SU and ATS, including 6-16 ATS versus sub.500 opponents and 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS when facing a foe off a win of more than 14 points. Enter the revitalized Seahawks, off Thursday night s 20- shutdown of San Francisco, and in full remembrance of last year s stunning 0-2 loss as 10-point home chalk to Dallas. It goes hand in hand with the Cowboys 0-7 ATS record at home versus avenging sub.500 opponents. With a Bye week up next and the famed defense looking better by the game (held three of its last five foes to season low yards), we turn to The Clincher: Seattle is 6-0 SU and ATS in games before its Bye week. BEST BET DENVER over Green Bay by 7 A true clash of the Titans kicks off under the Sunday night-lights in this pairing of 6-0 unbeaten Super Bowl hopefuls at Mile High. Ironically, both teams arrive with an extra week to prepare, a situation that in the past has greatly favored the team with the better rush defense. According to our all-knowing database, 5-0 or greater teams playing with a week of rest are a sparkling 1-1 SU and 12-2 ATS during the regular season since 1980 when facing an opponent that allows.8 or more Yards Per Rush on the season. Toss in the Packers lousy 2-1 ATS mark when.850 or greater versus.850 or greater opponents and you can understand our infatuation with the Broncos. Yes, we realize Green Bay is 10-1 ATS in its last eleven games when rested, and Aaron Rodgers over Peyton Manning appears to be a current-form mismatch on paper, but Manning is 26-4 SU at home with the Broncos, including 4-1 SUATS versus.714 or greater opponents. Plus, his defense is better than it s ever been. Besides, rest can often be a magic elixir for 9-year old future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Clincher: Denver is 14- SU and ATS home with rest after Bye week. Monday, November 2 CAROLINA over Indianapolis by The 6-0 Panthers continue to defy most handicapping logic, knocking off anyone standing in front of them. They ve also managed to grab the cash in five of those games all against foes who are combined on the year with nary a single win versus a winning opponent. And somewhat in Carnak fashion, we might add, as the MIDWEEK ALERT informs us Carolina is outgaining its lightweight foes by a mere 5 Yards Per Game this season behind the league s 22nd ranked offense. That s not to say it s been any better for the Colts, the ONLY team in the league that has yet to outgain an opponent this season. Our problem with this contest is best described in two words: line value. At the beginning of the season CG Technologies in Las Vegas listed the Colts as a 1-point favorite in this contest. Sure, a lot has transpired since, but we re still talking about an Indianapolis squad that is 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS off a SU and ATS loss in games behind QB Andrew Luck, and a Carolina club who is just 1-6 ATS in the second of a -game home stand. Hold your nose, take the points, and watch it all play out under the magic of the Monday Night lights. page 12

13 WISE GUYS CONTEST A $10,000 Contest Sponsored by PLAYBOOK.com Now in its 0th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winnerstake-all handicapping event. All plays are graded against the lines posted after 4:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page. Each week below we ll post Single Plays from the Top 20 point-earners. Following the play is their overall Win-Loss record / Double Play record / Total Points earned to date. Brad Diamond diamondquickpicks.com Brad Powers bradpowerssports.com California Sports californiasports.com CfbRefStats.com cfbrefstats.com Fairway Jay vegassportszone.com Hurricane Bill playbook.com Joe Nelson nellysports.com Ken Thomson sportsxradio.com Matty Baiungo prosportsinfo.com Mike Muzyka mjmsportsline.com Below are the current Top 20 Contestants from the 2015 Wise Guys Contest One Point Single Plays Listed W Kentucky (-2.5) Rice (+1) Wyoming (+28) Michigan (-1.5) Texas Tech (+) Utsa (-9.5) NY GIANTS (+) Texas Tech (+) NC State (+10.5) DOLPHINS (+7.5) 7-7 / 4- / 11 pts 11- / 6-1 / 17 pts 9-5 / 5-2 / 14 pts 8-6 / 5-2 / 1 pts 9-5 / 5-2 / 14 pts / 4- / 14 pts 9-5 / 5-2 / 14 pts 7-7 / 4- / 11 pts 8-6 / 4- / 12 pts 8-6 / -4 / 11 pts Norm Hitzges normsclubhouse.com Richard Witt playbook.com Ross Benjamin rossbenjaminsports.com Stan Lisowski playbook.com Steve Merril prosportsinfo.com Stormin Norman freesportsinfo.com Toby Scot Tom Stryker playbook.com Victor King playbook.com Weekly Wizard playbook.com Georgia Tech (-5.5) Connecticut (+7.5) Wash State (+12) BRONCOS (+) Boise State (-20) BUCCANEERS (+7) BEARS (+1.5) Notre Dame (-10) Dallas OVER 40.5 NY GIANTS (+) 7-7 / 5-2 / 12 pts 9-5 / 5-2 / 14 pts 8-6 / 6-1 /14 pts 10-4 / 6-1 / 16 pts 7-7 / 4- / 11 pts 9-5 / 4- / 1 pts 8-6 / 4- / 12 pts 8-6 / 4- / 12 pts / / 1 pts 8-6 / -4 / 11 pts GAME MATCHUPS Miami NEW ENGLAND Detroit Kansas City Minnesota CHICAGO Tampa Bay ATLANTA NY Giants NEW ORLEANS San Francisco ST LOUIS Arizona CLEVELAND Cincinnati PITTSBURGH THE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP: O/U STYLE AN 'OVER / UNDER' REPORT ON THIS WEEK'S NFL CARD BY VICTOR KING The first 8 games of the NFL schedule are listed below. As always, the number listed first is the OVER and the number listed second is the UNDER. *This week s TREND play: Rams OVER the TOTAL NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK EIGHT KEY OVER/UNDER STATS 4-0 O/U aft score 8 > pts O/U aft Hou O/U vs undefeated opp Gm 6 >... but O/U Thursdays 6-0 O/U bef Wash O/U Game O/U as div HF s 7 > pts O/U Thursdays... but 2-4 O/U L6 vs Mia (4.7) 6-0 O/U L6 vs KC (54.8) O/U Game O/U vs AFC West... but 1-4 O/U aft Min O/U bef GBay -1 O/U bef Den O/U Game O/U bef Bye... but 0- O/U aft Pit O/U vs NFC North -1 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... but 1-8 O/U bef Stl O/U in 2nd of BB div gms O/U L6 as RF s O/U aft Det 4-0 O/U bef SD O/U as conf HD s 4 < pts... but 0-5 O/U 2nd of BB div gms O/U L7 vs Min (7.6) O/U aft Bye 6-1 O/U aft score 0 > pts O/U aft Wash O/U bef NYG... but 0- O/U in 2nd of BB RG O/U w/ div revenge -0 O/U bef SF O/U home off BB RG O/U L4 vs TBay (56.7)... but 0-4 O/U Game O/U vs div revenge -0 O/U L vs NOrl (75.6!) O/U bef Tbay O/U off BB div gms O/U Game 8... but 1-6 O/U in 1st of BB RG 6-1 O/U aft Ind O/U vs NFC East O/U off road dog win O/U bef Ten... but 2-4 O/U Game O/U as RD s 7 > pts O/U bef Atl O/U aft score 7 < pts O/U 2nd of BB div gms O/U as div RD s 5-1 O/U home vs div revenge O/U L5 vs Stl (45.2) O/U w/ OU line < 40 pts O/U 2nd of BB HG O/U Gm O/U in 2nd of BB non-conf gms... but 0-4 O/U aft Balt O/U Game O/U aft Mon HG O/U bef Bye 4-1 O/U L5 non-conf HG... but O/U vs NFC West O/U bef Thur gm O/U bef Cin O/U aft score 6 < pts 4-1 O/U aft Bye O/U in 1st of BB div gms O/U Game O/U bef Clev... but 1-5 O/U off DD road win 2-0 O/U Game O/U aft score 1 < pts O/U bef Oak... but -9-1 O/U L1 div HG O/U vs opp off Bye page 1

14 THIS WEEK'S BEST BETS FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2015 COLLEGE NFL UPSET GAME BEST BET A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONS 4 BEST BET 5 BEST BET IOWA ST NC STATE GEORGIA BRONCOS SEAHAWKS SAINTS RICE Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: Your purchase of the information in this publication is intended strictly for the private use of the subscriber and/or purchaser. The redistribution of any portion of this information, in any form, without the express written consent of Preferred Picks (or Playbook or Playbook.com ) is strictly prohibited and is subject to the laws of the jurisdictions involved COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL - OCT 29-NOV 2 Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the SportsOptions.com opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin. You have a PLAYBOOK Recommendation whenever our predicted margin of victory is 6 or more points off the opening line. Remember, opening lines are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a final play. All times listed are Eastern Standard Time Games in Official International Rotation sequence Dates & times subject to change HAPPY HALLOWEEN FROM THE PLAYBOOK STAFF! FRIDAY, OCTOBER 0 SATURDAY, OCTOBER AIR FORCE 10:0 TIME CHANGE 206 HAWAII CBSSN 12 BTN THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 1 NEBRASKA TENNESSEE :00 PM 7:0 PM TIME CHANGE 14 PURDUE ESPNU 172 KENTUCKY SEC SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1 MIAMI 15 CLEMSON ABC OREGON ST 251 DETROIT 8:25 PM :0 PM TIME CHANGE 7:00 PM 9:0 AM at London, Eng NEW ENGLAND CBS NC STATE ESPN2 174 UTAH PAC KANSAS CITY 7 NORTH CAROLINA 1 17 MARYLAND ABC 175 CENTRAL FLORIDA 25 MINNESOTA 1 7:00 PM :0 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE PITTSBURGH ESPN 18 IOWA ESPN CINCINNATI ESPNN CHICAGO 6 W MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI SYRACUSE 255 TAMPA BAY 7:0 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE E MICHIGAN 140 AUBURN ESPN 178 FLORIDA ST ABC ATLANTA 7 1 BUFFALO GEORGIA ST 179 UL-MONROE 257 NY GIANTS 7:0 PM TIME CHANGE 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE 5:00 PM TIME CHANGE MIAMI OHIO 142 ARKANSAS ST UL-LAFAYETTE NEW ORLEANS 1 TEXAS ST ESPNU 14 C MICHIGAN W KENTUCKY SAN FRANCISCO 7:0 PM TIME CHANGE 2:00 PM 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE GA SOUTHERN AKRON 182 OLD DOMINION 260 ST. LOUIS 7 11 WEST VIRGINIA 145 ARIZONA 18 UTEP FSN 261 ARIZONA :0 PM 1 TIME CHANGE 2:0 PM TIME CHANGE TCU FS WASHINGTON FS1 NL SOUTHERN MISS CLEVELAND OREGON 10:0 PM ARIZONA ST SOUTH FLORIDA 12:00 PM NAVY ESPN LOUISVILLE ESPN2 7:00 PM WAKE FOREST EAST CAROLINA 7:00 PM UCONN ESPNU LOUISIANA TECH 8:00 PM RICE FS1 WYOMING 10:15 PM UTAH ST ESPN2 CBSSN MARSHALL :0 PM TIME CHANGE CHARLOTTE TROY :0 PM TIME CHANGE APPALACHIAN ST OL Pk PB MASSACHUSETTS TIME CHANGE BALL ST RUTGERS 12:00 PM WISCONSIN S DIEGO ST CBSSN :0 PM COLORADO ST STANFORD ESPN 10:0 PM TIME CHANGE WASHINGTON ST GEORGIA USC :0 FL FLORIDA CBS :00 PM TIME CHANGE CALIFORNIA FOX NOTRE DAME 8:00 PM TIME CHANGE TEMPLE ABC GEORGIA TECH :00 PM TIME CHANGE VIRGINIA OKLAHOMA ST :0 PM TEXAS TECH OKLAHOMA :0 PM KANSAS 162 FS1 16 TEXAS 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE IOWA ST ILLINOIS FS1 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 166 PENN ST ESPN2 OL PB VANDERBILT 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE 168 HOUSTON ESPN2 169 SOUTH CAROLINA 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE TEXAS A&M SEC OL PB OL PB FLORIDA INT L :0 PM TIME CHANGE FLA ATLANTIC UTSA 7:00 PM NORTH TEXAS MIAMI FLORIDA 7:00 PM DUKE ESPNU NL TULSA 4:00 PM TIME CHANGE 192 SMU ESPNN VIRGINIA TECH 12:0 PM TIME CHANGE BOSTON COLLEGE IDAHO 8:00 PM NEW MEXICO ST TULANE 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE MEMPHIS CBSSN MICHIGAN :00 PM TIME CHANGE 200 MINNESOTA ESPN 201 BOISE ST :0 PM TIME CHANGE UNLV ESPNU 20 COLORADO :00 PM TIME CHANGE 204 UCLA PAC CINCINNATI PITTSBURGH SAN DIEGO BALTIMORE TENNESSEE HOUSTON NY JETS 4:05 PM OAKLAND SEATTLE 4:25 PM DALLAS GREEN BAY 8:0 PM DENVER NBC 7 11 MONDAY, NOVEMBER INDIANAPOLIS 276 8:0 PM CAROLINA ESPN 6 4 NL 1 5 NFL WEEK EIGHT BYES Pk 7 BUFFALO, JACKSONVILLE, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON page 14