5 PLAYS SWEEP, BEST BETS GO 5-2!

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1 Volume 31, Issue 11 November 1-7, 2016 Marc s 5 College Game of the Month - Florida State: WINNER! 5 PLAYS SWEEP, BEST BETS GO 5-2! 10 NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER IS HERE! Betcha Didn t Know Handicapping Article Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends Incredible Stat of the Week Analysis on Every Lined Game Best Bets and Key Plays Full Schedule with Opening Lines GET SMART GET PLAYBOOK GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLE COPYRIGHT NOTICE - All materials in this newsletter are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, rebroadcast, displayed, or otherwise published without the prior written permission of Playbook.com. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice, nor may you offer for sale or resale the material included herein. VegasInsider.com

2 Marc Lawrence's BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW ALL REVVED UP A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping Every Saturday night, you know what it s like, All revved up with no place to go. He was a varsity tackle and a hell of a block. And when he played guitar he made the canyon rock. But without a game or a scheduled foe, he s simply all revved up with no place to go. Much like music from the past that today is digitally re-mastered, my new age sports database allows me the luxury of remixing results from the past, too. Take, for instance, our ALL REVVED UP theory form the late 80 s. It pertained to college football teams that were hitting on all cylinders, all focused and set to keep on rolling, when suddenly the schedule-maker stepped in and ordered up a week off. Talk about bad timing. Or is it? What we found was that if our rested teams were playing at home with rest and revenge we could count on the momentum to continue. That s verified by an outstanding W-L record of , or 59.2% ATS, in all games since 1980, when these teams were also playing off a win. Stamp this game important (read: versus a conference foe) when our team is getting points, and watch what happens when we PLAY ON any college football conference home dog with rest and revenge if they won SU in their last game. Talk about getting the blood flowing. Here we are, you and me, standing atop the handicapping world with another technical angle, looking to draw first blood from your bookmaker. That s because we re going out on a date with a good-looking ATS proposition. Better yet, bring them in off a conference win against an opponent off a double-digit win in which it was not favored by 20 or more points in its last game and they improve to ATS in these games, including 21-6 ATS as a dog of 6 or more points. With that, the LSU Tigers find themselves pumped up and ready to host the top team in the land, Alabama, Saturday night in the Pit at Death Valley. So in closing, it all goes to prove that when you re hitting on all cylinders, an extra week of rest won t hurt. Because, if you re ALL REVVED UP, you will have a place to go right into the winner s circle! 2016 Associated Press Poll Top 25 - Into Week 9: 1 ALABAMA 2 MICHIGAN 3 CLEMSON 4 WASHINGTON 5 LOUISVILLE 6 OHIO ST 7 TEXAS A&M 8 WISCONSIN 9 NEBRASKA 10 FLORIDA 11 AUBURN 12 OKLAHOMA 13 BAYLOR 14 W VIRGINIA 15 LSU 16 UTAH 17 W MICHIGAN 18 N CAROLINA 19 FLORIDA ST 20 PENN ST 21 COLORADO 22 OKLAHOMA ST 23 VIRGINIA TECH 24 BOISE ST 25 WASHINGTON ST TRIVIA TEASER THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY Talk about keeping the alumni happy This coach is ATS at home in games off an ATS loss in his career, including 19-6 ATS before Game Ten of the season. Who is this week s gift that keeps on giving? For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 6. AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK PLAY AGAINST any college football conference favorite of more than 7 points from Game Seven out off its first loss of the season as a conference favorite they allow more than 16.5 PPG. provided they scored 28 or more points in the loss and are facing a.333 or greater opponent. Play AGAINST: BOISE ST (11/4) and BAYLOR (11/5) BUBBLE BURST ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 15-2 (88%) page 2

3 2-MINUTE HANDICAP College Football Games FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT ATS = Against The Spread A = Away Con = Conference D = Dog F = Favorite H = Home Rev = Revenge R = Road SU = Straight-Up NFL Games All results are ATS Against The Spread and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains the exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK and PLAYBOOK.COM and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher. TEAMS Florida St NC STATE Maryland MICHIGAN Tcu BAYLOR Georgia Tech N CAROLINA Vanderbilt AUBURN Florida ARKANSAS Washington CALIFORNIA Alabama LSU Wisconsin N WESTERN Nebraska OHIO ST KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS Saturday, November conf RF s 10 < pts 7-3 bef Bost Coll 1-4 aft Clemson 9-2 L11 / 5-0 home 4-1 in 2nd of BB HG 7-2 Game Nine SERIES: Visitor dogs > 21 pts 5-2 in 2nd of BB RG 5-1 conf favs 21 > Pts 3-1 Game Nine 1-3 aft Mich St SERIES: 8-1 L aft Tex Tech 2-7 away vs conf rev 9-1 home w/ conf revenge 4-1 Game Eight 0-4 aft Texas 5-2 conf dogs < 10 pts 1-6 in 1st of BB RG 1-4 aft Duke SERIES: 5-2 L7 3-1 w/ rest 7-3 favs vs conf revenge 4-1 conf dogs 21 > pts 0-3 in 1st of BB RG SERIES: 4-1 L as conf favs 21 > pts 4-1 aft Georgia SERIES: L away bef BB HG 1-4 aft Georgia 5-0 aft allow 45 > pts 3-0 home w/ rest 9-1 aft Auburn SERIES: 5-2 L7 / Visitor Game Nine 0-7 bef USC 0-4 aft USC 1-8 vs conf revenge 1-5 as DD HD s SERIES: 4-1 L5 1-4 away w/ rest off SUATS conf win 5-1 home w/ rest 6-2 conf HD s 4 > pts 2-6 aft Ole Miss 5-1 Game Nine 0-3 aft Nebraska 2-5 bef Illinois SERIES: Host aft Ohio St 2-8 conf HD s > 3 pts 5-2 conf dogs 13 > pts 1-4 in 2nd of BB RG 4-1 favs < 21 pts in 2nd of BB conf HG 9-3 Game Nine SMART BOX PUTTIN ON THE STATS With Halloween now in the rear view mirror, it s on to the best time of the College Football season the month of November! That s because the combination of stats and angles bring us the best winning edges of the year. Our Puttin On The Stats theory is a dandy. Best of all, it s simple. And it wins. What we re looking to do from this point of the season out is to Play On any team as a dog if they ve won all or all but one of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to Play Against any favorite that has lost all or all but one of their games in total yards ITS. As Thanksgiving nears, here s this year s list from our sister publication the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT of Play On (as dog) and Play Against (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2016 season: PLAY-ON DOGS: Alabama, *Army, *Baylor, Clemson, Houston, *Louisville, *Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Southern Mississippi, *Toledo, Virginia Tech, *Washington, Washington State, West Virginia and *Western Michigan. PLAY-AGAINST FAVORITES: Florida Atlantic, Nevada, and Texas State. Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time in the season, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list. To kick off the festivities, Army appears on our Play On list if they go off as an underdog. Now pass the gravy and let the November feast begin! TEAMS Atlanta TAMPA BAY Jacksonville KANSAS CITY Detroit MINNESOTA Philadelphia NY GIANTS Dallas CLEVELAND Ny Jets MIAMI Pittsburgh BALTIMORE New Orleans SAN FRAN Carolina LOS ANGELES Indianapolis GREEN BAY Tennessee SAN DIEGO Denver OAKLAND Buffalo SEATTLE KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS Thursday, November A off home vs foe off SU HF loss 1-4 w/ triple rev 0-4 Home Four 1-6 off SU loss vs div w/ rev Sunday, November off Thur vs non-div 1-7 <.500 aft Tenn vs non-div 7-1 off away vs non-div off SU away loss Series: 1-5 L6H 1-7 w/ rev bef rest vs.500 > foe 6-0 off away vs foe off away (1-0 TY) 4-0 aft Chicago Series: 8-1 L9A 6-0 2nd BB away vs div foe w/ rev 0-5 w/ rev bef MNF vs div 1-6 off away vs.500 > off away 1-7 A off div vs foe w/ triple rev 2-9 RF s 7 > vs non-div 5-1 dogs w/ triple rev (1-1 TY) 7-2 Home Four vs non-div Series: 5-0 L5 / 3-0 L3A 0-5 vs foe w/ rest 0-7 2nd BB div games 0-6 HF s w/ rest vs div Series: 5-0 bef NFC (1-0 TY) > w/ rest 1-6 off non-div bef Cleveland 2-9 favs 1st BB div Series: 0-5 L5 / 5-2 L7A 5-1 A off SU home win (1-0 TY) 1-8 off non-div w/ rest 3-17 bef Arizona vs foe w/ rev Series: 6-1 L7 5-1 bef AFC 1-5 off DD SU win 6-1 w/ rev & rest vs <.500 foe 2-9 bef AFC vs <.500 foe 6-0 off SUATS loss vs NFC 5-0 <.500 A bef rest 10-0 off A w/ rev vs foe off home 1-4 1st BB AFC Series: L9 / 0-5 L5A 5-0 Away Four 1-4 bef NFC 26-4 vs AFC South (1-1 TY) 1-9 1st BB home off SU loss Series: L9 / 5-0 L5A st BB away vs div 0-7 off BB away 0-5 bef rest 3-13 off BB SU wins Monday, November off BB SUATS losses aft New England 1-8 Away Five 9-1 H MNF off SU loss 7-1 off SUATS loss (1-0 TY) NFL WEEK NINE BYES: ARIZONA, CHICAGO, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND, WASHINGTON INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK Since becoming the head coach for Atlanta, the favorite in Falcons games is 3-21 ATS under Dan Quinn. Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! page 3

4 THIS WEEK IN FOOTBALL - NOVEMBER 1-7 Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 6 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line Huskers Due For A Shuckin By Red-Faced Buckeyes... Vikings Call On Odin To Bless Them With Lion Pelts... Tuesday, November 1 NO ILLINOIS over Bowling Green by 17 What a difference 11 months can make! Who would have thought this Week 10 opener would be relegated to ESPNU (WMU/Ball State gets the deuce) since it seemed like only yesterday the Huskies and Falcons were squaring off for the 2015 MAC championship (not to mention the 2013 and 2014 titles as well). Now, less than a year later, it looks like neither will be hitting the alleys. The 1-7 Bee Gees certainly won t be singing in any postseason showers while the 2-6 sled dogs will need to run the table in order to extend an 8-year bowl skein. That s unlikely with Toledo on deck but we won t stand in their path tonight as they re looking to avenge a loss in the aforementioned 2015 title tilt. And with the series favorite a solid 6-3 ATS since 1998, look for the Hi-Jinks to continue tonight in Dekalb. W Michigan over BALL ST by 16 Don t look now but the 17th-ranked Western Michigan Broncos are the highest rated non-power 5 school in the latest AP Poll following Boise State s loss last week in Wyoming. Of course, we have a better chance of getting a Weekend of Winners through to Hillary Clinton than the Broncos have of making the four-team playoff, but a date in the Cotton Bowl is definitely on P.J. Fleck s radar. Normally the road is treacherous for an undefeated team at this time of the season. Just ask Baylor, Boise, West Virginia and Nebraska all of whom all fell victim to the noose last week. Or Clemson and Washington, who barely escaped the conference highway with a win. However, the Gonads look to be nothing more than late-season fodder for soon-to-be MAC bowlers. Our database can attest to that in this lopsided matchup as the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in weekday home games and 1-5 ATS before facing Eastern Michigan. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 7-1 ATS in weekday road games and 5-1 ATS as double-digit road favorites. Still, the ever-looming presence of the noose keeps us at bay. Wednesday, November 2 Toledo over AKRON by 11 The MAC Mystery Tour continues on hump day with both the Zips and Rockets trying to rebound from puzzling losses they suffered last Thursday. Akron dropped a 21-point decision in Buffalo as 20-point chalk and still needs one more win to become bowl eligible while Toledo fell at home to Ohio as 15-point chalk. The Rockets still control their own destiny in the West as they close out the season in Kalamazoo against division-leading Western Michigan. However, the Rocket men now have no margin for error as they ll need to top Akron for the eighth time in the last 10 tries if they want to make their season-ender meaningful. An 11-6 ATS log in conference games off a SU favorite loss, including 9-1 SU and 7-1 ATS versus sub.700 foes, suggests the Rockets bounce back in the Rubber City. As does a 16-1 SU record since 2014 against MAC foes not named Northern Illinois or Western Michigan. Wow a road favorite for us. We warned you: this conference is full of surprises! Thursday, November 3 OHIO U over Buffalo by 20 Our weeknight tour of the MAC continues in battleground state Ohio where the Bulls roam into Athens fresh off their biggest win of the season. However, life outside the range has not been kind to the bison this season as they are 0-3 SUATS with the three losses coming by a combined 92 points. The Bobcats are also coming off their biggest win of the season that 15-point roadie in Toledo and now own a one-game lead over Miami Ohio, a team they have already beaten, and Akron, a squad they will face at home to close out the regular season. The Bulls victory over the Zips should garner the host s full attention while the Bobbies ATS mark as weekday favorites says they like taking Saturdays off. Even though there appears only one way to look here, we don t like backing favorites (as you know) particularly those of the double-digit variety and especially in the unpredictable MAC. Arkansas St over GEORGIA ST by 4 The Red Wolves got off of to their typical slow start under 3rd-year HC Blake Anderson (3-9 SU in September) but have reeled off three straight wins as they look to extend a 5-year bowl streak. More importantly, Arky State along with Appalachian State and Troy remains unbeaten in Sun Belt play. Our concern, however, in dancing with the Wolves tonight in Atlanta is the fact that we have to lay points on the road with a team that hasn t left home since mid-september. Even so, the series host hasn t exactly arrived with an American Express card, either, posting a 0-3 ATS mark since Georgia State officially joined the FBS in Thus, we have no interest in stepping in front of the hard-charging Wolves. Especially with the Panthers nursing numerous injuries, including the availability of QB Conner Manning who missed the last two games with an injured arm. A cautious lean to the visitor. Oklahoma over IOWA ST by 24 Like reality television (what s next Sri Lanka s Got Talent or Teen Grandma?), the Sooners just won t go away. In fact, thanks to losses by both Baylor and West Virginia on Road Kill Saturday, the Sooners 5-0 in conference play now sit atop the Big 12. You can bet Medium Game Bob will do his best to make a case for his 2-loss squad as they look to crash the College Playoff party. And that could make it perilous trying to fade him especially with a bad Iowa State squad. Our every-game database certainly agrees, noting: OU is 6-0 ATS before battling Baylor and 3-0 ATS as weekday chalk while the Cyclones are 1-8 ATS with revenge in Game Nine, 1-3 ATS as home dogs of 14 or more points and 0-8 SU and ATS in the final four games of the season the past two years. Yikes! To no one s surprise, the Sooners bring home the cash for the fifth straight time in this series. COLORADO over Ucla by 4 After skating around a bevy of chalk, did you notice who our first bolded team of the week is? Why it s none other than the underdog Bruins, who have laid nothing less than 11.5 points (average line: 19!) in this series since the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12 in Yes, QB Josh Rosen who many believe was more injured at his Bris (google it) than he is today won t be under center but the fact of the matter is the Bruins are a DIA/DIA play (Dominating Dog in Action, Doing it Again). Yes, we realize the money-making Buffs (7-0 ATS this season) are 8-0 ATS with conference revenge and 6-2 ATS in weekday home games. However, there s just too much value to pass up with the double-digit Bruins who arrive with some credible numbers of their own: 6-1 ATS in Game Nine, 5-1 ATS with rest and 7-2 ATS in weekday affairs. Thus, with the shoe on the other foot tonight in Boulder, we ll grab the horn and slip into these worn-out but comfortable loafers and take whatever we can get with the capable visitors. Friday, November 4 MIAMI OHIO over Central Michigan by 3 We put the wraps on the MAC tonight in Oxford with a pair of teams heading in opposite directions. The Chippewas are on a 2-4 slide after starting the season 3-0 while Miami Ohio has won three straight following Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com page 4

5 a disastrous 0-6 start to its 2016 campaign. More impressively, all three RedHawks wins have come in SU underdog fashion, bringing into play this little doozy: dogs off three straight underdog wins are 13-5 ATS since 2006, including 4-0 ATS off a double-digit victory. We realize CMU has had its way in the series of late (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS since 2012) but we have a feeling the hosts will be the ones who arrive with a Chip on their shoulders as a favorable remaining schedule (at Buffalo, home to Ball State) could find them bowl-eligible for the first time since 2010 should they garner a fourth straight upset today. It s a take but the points are optional as this one has False Favorite written all over it. Temple over CONNECTICUT by 16 With just UConn, Tulane and East Carolina (a combined 2-12 SU in AAC play) left on the docket, it looks like the Cosby Kids (6-3, 4-1) will Rhule the East for a second straight season. Not bad for a team that started their campaign with a home loss to Army. Since that loss to the Cadets, Matt Rhule s Owls have covered SEVEN straight FBS contests, thanks to a stop-unit that has held five of those foes to season-low yardage. And though we haven t laid double-digits on the road this many times since backing Sherman s march through Atlanta in 1864, Temple s 9-1 ATS series log warrants it. As does the fact that the 3-6 Huskies are resigned to being home for the holidays for the fifth time in six years and not up to ruffling any feathers. Hence, we say lay it AND play it as the Owls can t let this one get away not with USF hot on their trail. BOISE ST over San Jose St by 24 The Spartans haven t found their way out of San Jose (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS), allowing 42 or more points in every road game this season. That doesn t figure to change tonight on the Smurf Turf as the Broncos are averaging 33.5 points and over 482 yards per game. Or does it? There s a huge Bubble Burst in effect as Boise s perfect season went down the drain last week in Laramie when the Broncos blew an early 14-point lead and lost on a last-minute safety after QB Brett Rypien s fumble went out of his own end zone. It s so huge that we had to call in our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 to decipher the situation. Yes, we couldn t put a hundred down and buy a car with San Jose s 1-8 ATS mark as conference dogs of 21 or more points or even afford to call Dionne Warwick s Psychic Friends Network with the Spartans 1-4 ATS weekday log versus conference foes. However, we re not about to lay over four touchdown with a deflated Brett Rypien, who probably banged his head harder than his uncle Mark, or with a Broncos squad that is 2-17 ATS as conference home favorites of 15 or more points and 1-6 ATS during the week on the blue stuff! There s safety in those numbers if you get our drift. Saturday, November 5 Notre Dame over Navy by 8 The Fighting Irish coughed up a 20-0 lead over Miami last Saturday by allowing the Hurricanes to score 27 unanswered points, but rallied back in the 4th quarter to kick a field goal with 30 seconds remaining to edge the Canes, The Golden Domers now need three wins in their final four games to become bowl-eligible, and must still play Virginia Tech and travel to USC so this win is mandatory. The pressure lies squarely on the Irish, who are just 4-11 ATS coming off a win, including 0-7 ATS at home or on a neutral field (today s game takes place at Jacksonville, Florida). They have also dominated this series, going 49-3 SU over the last 52 years, but Navy is 3-6 outright versus UND since The Middies rallied from a 31-point third quarter deficit in their game a week ago, only to fall eventually to USF, Both teams rolled up over 600 yards of offense in that one, with Navy s defense allowing 629 yards overall and scores on the Bulls first six possessions. The Academy s attack has gained 1,148 yards the last two games as the offense appears to have come alive, and they now need one win to earn their spot on the college bowl season. Small lean to the lucky guys. APPALACHIAN ST over Texas St by 31 The Mountaineers are tied atop the Sun Belt standings with Troy at 4-0 in the conference, while Arkansas State is looming at 3-0, and ASU is now playing its best ball of the season. The hillbillies have held three of their last four foes to season-low yards, including last Thursday night s game against Georgia Southern in which the Eagles were able to amass just 159 yards (almost half of that coming in the 4th quarter with the game clearly out of reach). Meanwhile, the Bobcats reside in the Sun Belt cellar, winless at 0-3 and hence, the prohibitive line in this contest. Texas State has now been out-yarded in 17 of its last 18 FBS battles as it s obvious they are in way over their heads at this level. However, it s just not in our DNA to lay these kind of numbers, so we ll just stroll around Boone and admire the spectacular fall foliage instead. NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded. UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET CINCINNATI over Byu by 6 At first glance this line looks sketchy, as both teams are 4-4 and will be clawing for bowl-eligibility down the stretch. Stats-wise, the Cougars are being out-yarded by 51 YPG this season, the Bearcats by 48 YPG. BYU has been favored twice this season and is 0-2 ATS in those games, while over the last few years, they re just ATS as road favorites with rest. Don t be swayed by the Cougars narrow loss at Boise State, as they were out-yarded in that contest. In addition, the Bearcats dropped a 14-point decision at the Y last season, a loss that subsequently dragged UC down to the Hawaii Bowl, so we can assure you that Tommy T will be seeking serious revenge today. Finally, something we think you probably were unaware of supplied by the all-knowing database gives us THE CLINCHER for this upset special: The dog in BYU games is 7-0 ATS under head coach Kalani Sitake. ARMY over Air Force by 7 Although Air Force is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in this series over the last decade, the problem today is that the Falcons are reeling after a 4-0 start, going just 1-3 SU and 0-4 versus the spread in their last four contests. This is also their first trip east of the Mississippi in the previous 25 regular season games (the last time they flew this far east was last season when they lost at Navy). Meanwhile, the Cadets keep marching to their own beat in 2016, one of only seven teams that are clean (7-0) In The Stats this season, and that makes them a SMART BOX play should they puppy up to the Falcons today. This just in from the well-informed database, which makes Army a play for your pocket: college football home dogs that allow less than 18 PPG with a winning record and are seeking revenge off a SU road dog win, are ATS. If the Black Knights are taking, we re in the Army, now! Louisville over BOSTON COLLEGE by 20 The struggling Cardinals are like most Bubble Burst teams, showing the lingering effects of a perfect season ruined, and in fact, needed a TD pass with just 13 seconds remaining to edge lowly Virginia last week. Last season, the Cards laid 7.5 points at home in a squeaker over the Golden Eagles and we just can t trust them until they find their groove again. On top of that, Louisville is just 1-5 ATS as conference road chalk of 15 points or more, while BC sports the opposite number (5-1 ATS) as home dogs of the same amount. Plus, we just feel that since the Eagles snapped a 12-game ACC losing skid with their win at NC State last week, they will likely carry that positive momentum into this contest. Take the points if you play it. MINNESOTA over Purdue by 15 The Boilermakers let us down in a major way last week when they were outscored 24-0 in the 3rd quarter of a home loss to suddenly surprising Penn State. Now, they re in a dead heat with Illinois for the last spot in the Big Ten West division, which leads us to the conclusion that there is no interest here with a leaderless squad wondering who their next coach is going to be. Especially against a Gophers unit that is just one game back of Nebraska for the top spot in Big Ten West following the Huskers first loss of the campaign last week. However, the Silk is on deck for Minnesota and will likely capture more of their attention than will Purdue today. Plus, Minny gained just 283 yards in last Saturday s win over the lifeless Illini, so that keeps us at bay today as well. Virginia Tech over DUKE by 8 For openers, the Hokies have not been a team you can count on for ticketcashing when laying big numbers on the road, going 0-8 ATS when giving more than a TD. Tech QB Jerod Evans has three experienced and reliable receivers in Isaiah Ford, Bucky Hodges and Cam Phillips and he found them all last week for over 100 yards apiece but none of them could find the end zone on Thursday night against Pitt. However, kicker Joey Slye converted an ACC record SIX field goals in the win and now the Hokies are tied with UNC for the lead in the ACC Coastal and own the tie-breaker advantage versus the Heels. The downside is that a loss to Duke this afternoon gives it back and with pressure beginning to mount, (continued on next page) page 5

6 Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com we ll play Devils advocate today. The Blue Boys conference mark of 0-4 has them in the cellar of the Coastal Division, but they can still secure a bowl invite with three wins in their final four games. Look for the dog in this series to improve to 6-2 ATS here today. CLEMSON over Syracuse by 20 Clemmie has a solid record against rested conference opponents, going 5-1 versus the number, but the problem is the tightening noose on undefeated teams at this stage of the season (the Tigers are 0-2 ATS last two contests), and a letdown from that war at Florida State is almost inevitable. The Orange, meanwhile, have a great record as huge underdogs recently, covering four straight when getting three touchdowns or more. They have also covered three of the last four meetings in this series. At 4-4 after consecutive wins, including that big upset over Virginia Tech three weeks ago, Dino Babers has his team striving for a bowl invitation, in need of two victories in the final four games of the season. While Babers responded to questions about another possible upset this week by saying Don t bet the house on it, brother, expect him to keep the pedal to the metal in pursuit of that bowl berth. More than enough reason to believe that a cover is probable today. WEST VIRGINIA over Kansas by 27 The abysmal Jayhawks are an awful 1-14 ATS after playing Oklahoma and 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Those are ugly numbers for sure, but the situation of this game outweighs the team trends. Kansas has been pummeled in three straight contests, but nearly upset TCU before that. KU has cashed two of the last three games in this series, and takes the field tonight with 49-0 loss revenge from last year on their minds. The numbers on the WVU side aren t very good, either, as the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS as conference home favorites of 22 or more points, and just 2-6 ATS at home versus.333 or better Big 12 opponents. Also, this is yet another Bubble Burst situation in effect here, so it s practically impossible to focus. West Virginia s playing down to the level of the Jayhawks would certainly be no surprise. Indiana over RUTGERS by 16 The Hoosiers outplayed our expectations last week in a seesaw battle with Maryland, displaying an impressive rushing attack that produced three running backs that rolled up over 100 yards each. They still don t have much of a defense, but against the Scarlet Knights they may not need it and at 4-4, they remain a constant in this year s bowl chase. The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS as road chalk under Kevin Wilson, including 2-0 ATS in conference play. Rutgers is tied with Michigan State (surprise!) at 0-5 in the Big Ten East and will likely just be playing out the string from this point forward. The red-faced Knights now have a skein of seven straight Big Ten home losses going by an average margin of defeat of 24.7 PPG and it apparently will continue here. In as diplomatic a way of saying this as possible, head coach Chris Ash s first year at the helm in New Brunswick continues to be a learning experience. Michigan St over ILLINOIS by 8 The last time Sparty didn t party was 2006 when they went 4-8 under John L. Smith. That was also the last we saw of Smith until he resurfaced at Arkansas six years later. We re not saying that s going to happen to Mark Dantonio, who had guided the Spartans to an record and nine bowl appearances in his first nine years on the East Lansing sidelines, but we do know that if he gets a personalized tin picture frame for his 10th anniversary it won t come with the 2016 team picture as the Spartans are riding an unheard of six-game losing streak. That will likely keep them home for the holidays and will certainly get them off our radar as: teams on the conference highway riding a 6-game or longer losing skein are just SU since 1980, including ATS as favorites versus losing foes. However, we re not loving the Illini either as Illinois and 1st-year head coach Lovie Smith have only chalked up wins against Rutgers and Murray State. We could side with series history and back the Spartans who are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in this matchup since 1995 but a Thurston Howell-like 9-4 ATS mark by the Illini as home dogs of late has us taking it or leaving it. We suggest you do the same. Florida St over NC STATE by 3 We doubt the refereeing crew that worked the Clemson-FSU game will be trick-or-treating in Jimbo Fisher s neighborhood next year unless they want to leave with a couple of Twizzlers stuck up there you-know-where. Fisher is probably still spewing vulgarities over the critical chop block call that likely cost the Seminoles the game against Clemmie, but the truth of the matter is this is not the advertised FSU team that was ranked No. 4 in the preseason poll (and No. 1 in this year s Playbook Football Preview Guide magazine). A 5-3 record could easily be 3-5 (see Ole Miss and Miami) and we have to feel a natural letdown is in order today as they hit Tobacco Road. As it is, the Sems are just 1-4 ATS after clashing with Clemson and 2-9 ATS in the last 11 in this series, including 0-5 ATS in this building. However, we can t quite snap the rubber band with a Wolf Pack squad that is 4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back homers as they arrive riding a three-game losing skid, including a setback to BC here last week as 13.5-point chalk in another dreaded Homecoming affair. As a result, they need two wins in their final four games to secure a bowl bid. They may not get the first one today as FSU is 4-1 SU as road favorites of 10 or less points but our blazing hot MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us that both own similar stats, making the points the play. Now that wasn t gutless, was it Jimbo? MICHIGAN over Maryland by 28 With the Wolves sitting firmly in the Top Four in all polls (Clemson is ahead on strength of schedule, though), Harbaugh and company have nothing left to prove as they await their November 26th date at Ohio State. The quick-starting Turtles a 4-0 jump from the gate has evaporated into a 5-3 record certainly can t beat them to the finish line so the question becomes do we want to lay the boatload today in Ann Arbor? Probably not. The Terrapins still need one win to hit the alleys and thankfully a homer against Rutgers closes out the slate as victory No. 6 won t come today or in the next few weeks (Ohio State, at Nebraska). However, our database likes Mary s chances of grabbing the cash as the Terps are 5-1 ATS as dogs of more than 21 points, 5-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and 5-2 ATS away versus undefeated conference opposition. In addition, the series visitor is 3-1 ATS. We also find Michigan in a bad scheduling spot as the Wolverines are 3-7 ATS before hunting Hawkeyes and 1-3 ATS after meeting Michigan State. (On a side note: the 401 yards the Wolves allowed to MSU marked the first time this season they failed to hold a foe to season-low yardage.) And with more urgency to the Terps, we have no interest in backing the hosts today. You know the drill pick, err hold, your nose Virginia over WAKE FOREST by 6 Though our MIDWEEK ALERT disagrees (UVA has digressed on both sides of the ball) and the standings don t bear it out, the 2-win Cavs look like a better team than the 4-8 version of a year ago. Maybe it s the eye test or maybe it s because we re big fans of Bronco Mendenhall, whose string of 11 straight bowl appearances is about to come to a screeching halt unless he can run the 4-game table. The only thing Mendenhall can do is take it one day at a time and our database likes his chances here as he brings a Valerie Bertinelli-like 10-3 ATS career mark as a conference dog of 2 or more points into Winston-Salem (if he was 3-10 ATS we would be referencing Mackenzie Phillips). We also like the fact that he catches a 5-3 Wake team that is just 1-3 SU in its last four and is feeling the pressure to garner that bowl-eligible sixth win (fell to Army at home, 21-13, as 7-point favorites and still have Clemson and Louisville left on the docket) for the first time in five years. Thus, we ll start the chase today with Bronco as he leaves the Demon Deacons in his Wake. A must take. KANSAS ST over Oklahoma St by 10 Our well-informed MIDWEEK ALERT finds both the Wildcats and Cowboys arriving off phony inside-out wins (won the game, lost the stats). Normally, we d be the first in line to fade these guys and take a pass but the Wildcats find themselves in a very desirable role as head coach Bill Snyder is the answer to this week s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. And while it was Mike Gundy who kept his alumni happy last week with a win over previously unbeaten West Virginia, we expect the Wildcats to arrive with guns ablazing this week as Snyder is a sure-shot ATS in his career at home in games off an ATS loss. Better yet, the Cats are 9-1 ATS as hosts in this series. Yes, we realize Gundy s gunners are still very much alive for the Big 12 crown should they run the table before the bedlam begins the first week of December, but we can t back the Boys in this shootout. An easy lay. NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded. page 6

7 TULSA over East Carolina by 3 Following last week s upset of Memphis, the Golden Hurricane now find themselves tied with Navy for the top spot in the AAC West. And guess who s coming to dinner next week! That puts them in a precarious spot today, although our database reminds us that the Hurricane are a golden 8-2 ATS as chalk off a SU underdog win. Still, there is just too much of a line swing for our taste as the hosts are now asked to lay over a touchdown after being installed as double-digit dogs each of the past three seasons. Especially against a team that has owned them since 2008 (6-0 SU by an average score of 43-27) and needs three wins in its final four games to go bowling for the fourth time in five seasons. And since we keep bringing up food, we may as well close this one out by backing the hungry, dominating dog as those 8 points look simply delicious. MIDDLE TENNESSEE over Utsa by 14 Once again our scorching MIDWEEK ALERT (10-2 the last two weeks, including 6-0 on Best Bets) reports that both MTSU and UTSA arrive off suspect inside-out wins. Despite getting out-statted by 91 yards, the Roadrunners outsmarted North Texas, thanks to a huge 4-0 turnover discrepancy. Nonetheless, that victory keeps Frank Wilson s crew in the thick of the C-USA West race as they trail both Louisiana Tech (a team they have yet to play) and Southern Miss (a squad they have already defeated) by a game in the loss column. It also moves them within two games of possibly hitting the alleys for the first time in their four-year FBS existence. However, it won t be easy as the opener of this 3-game road trek (La Tech and Texas A&M are to follow) takes them to Murfreesboro to face a Blue Raiders squad that is in a virtual three-way tie with WKU and Old Dominion for CUSA East honors. The Raiders, under our man Rick Stockstill, are certainly a formidable bunch but our concern as well as the MIDWEEK S is that they have lost the stats in each of their last two victories. And while that doesn t quite have them leaking oil, the drip is noticeable and we can only look towards the generous points today with the determined visitors. SOUTHERN MISS over Charlotte by 16 The 49ers are playing with renewed road confidence following wins at FAU and Marshall over the past three weeks and hit Hattiesburg off three straight ATS covers and, more impressively, three consecutive ITS wins. The three victories they have mined this season has already exceeded last year s 2-win effort so there s no reason to believe a repeat performance (fell to the Golden Eagles last year at home) is in order. Sure, Jay Hopson s birds of prey nest just a half-game back of La Tech in the CUSA West and are in need of one more win to go bowling for a second straight season. But we re not crazy about laying this kind of wood with a convocation of Eagles who are playing more like Southern Misses under Hopson as favorites of 17 or more points against FBS opposition (0-2 ATS). It s another take a Charlotte stays sweet on the ATS scorecard. 4 BEST BET Tcu over BAYLOR by 6 Both Baylor and TCU arrive off inside-out losses as the Bears outgained Texas, , in their gut-wrenching 1-point loss while the Frogs out-jumped the Red Raiders by 73 yards in their excruciating overtime defeat. However, the hosts figure to come up much more empty as the Longhorns dashed any hopes of an undefeated BU season. And though the Bears are still very much in control of their conference destiny, our database is about to deflate Baylor s hopes even more. That s because the Bears are 3-12 SU and ATS after tangling with Texas since 1996 and 6-16 SUATS before ogling with Oklahoma. Meanwhile, TCU head coach Gary Patterson is 16-4 ATS as a dog of seven or more points, including 7-0 ATS the last seven. Even series history sides with the Frogs as they have covered eight of the last nine and are 5-0 ATS in this matchup when the Bears enter off a conference loss and TCU arrives off any setback. And, of course, this wouldn t be a Best Bet without hearing from THE CLINCHER: See the Bubble Burst AWESOME ANGLE on page 2. Pittsburgh over MIAMI FLA by 6 South Florida is known for hurricanes not earthquakes but the Richter scale has been magnified of late as Miami is riding a 0-4 SUATS (not to mention 0-5 ITS ) streak following their promising 4-0 SUATS start. The post-irish letdown certainly won t help matters especially after the Canes rallied from 20-0 deficit to take a lead, only to lose in the final minute at South Bend last week. The Panthers also suffered a tough defeat last Thursday at the hands of the Hokies and are now on the outside of the ACC Coastal picture looking in. It s unlikely they can pass both UNC and Va Tech (teams they lost to by a combined 4 points) but our database likes their chances of staying on the prowl as they are 7-2 ATS away under HC Pat Narduzzi, including 6-0 ATS with revenge (dropped a decision to the Canes in their home finale as 7-point chalk last season). The series visitor is also a perfect 4-0 SUATS and that fits Narduzzi s M.O. to a tee as the visiting team is ATS in games he coaches. Thus, we ll follow our M.O. and that s to grab the points in this secondary Upset Special. NORTH CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 8 Speaking of Carolina, things could be finer if they held the tie-breaker with Virginia Tech in the ACC Coastal. But they don t. And that makes every win mandatory from here on out. We like the fact that the Heels are 9-1 ATS in Game Nine of the season and have held two of their last three foes to season-low yardage. However, we re not thrilled that the Jackets are 5-2 SUATS in this matchup since 2009 or that it s Homecoming in Chapel Hill and the Heels are laying double-digits. Tech s 1-6 ATS mark in the first of back-to-back roadies helps Carolina s cause but their 6-1 ATS Game Nine log doesn t. Nor does the fact that the Stingers need one more game to return to the alleys after a one-year hiatus, and will be in full Wrecking mode today on Tobacco Road as road games at Virginia Tech and Georgia (as well as a home game against improving Virginia) still remain. Another lean to the dog. AUBURN over Vanderbilt by 27 Believe it or not, this is a double-revenger for the Tigers as the Commies have disposed of them in each of the past two meetings dating back to However, both of those games were in Nashville so you have to figure they won t be catching these red-hot Tigers by the tail during this trip to their lair especially with Aubbie 10-2 ATS as conference favorites of 21 or more points and 5-2 ATS as chalk versus rested SEC opposition. The only chink in the Tigers recent surge is an inside-out win at Ole Miss last week but they still remain one of the hottest teams in the SEC at the moment. And one that a Vandy team (0-3 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games) won t be able to slow down. The Commies still need a pair of wins to become bowl-eligible but the first one is not happening today. Burn or bust. Georgia over KENTUCKY by 1 It looks to us like the wrong team may be favored tonight in Lexington as the Wildcats arrive on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS run while the Bulldogs enter off a pair of setbacks, including another loss to the hated Gators. That makes it 21 losses in 27 tries at the World s Largest Cocktail Party and we know just where to throw blame. It s not on a Dawg D that held the Gators to a total of 231 yards last week and allowed a meager 177 yards to Vanderbilt the week prior but rather on a rushing attack that ran for a Girly-like (and we don t mean Todd) 21 yards in last week s loss. Thus, you can see why this game is priced on name and reputation only. However, the Wildcat s annual late-season collapse (1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in the final four games of the season under Early-Season Game Mark Stoops) has us leaning only slightly to the hosts and that s if they stay on the right side of the betting line. Florida over ARKANSAS by 6 With only two games left on the SEC slate, and basically a two-game lead in the East (the Gators hold the tie-breaker over Kentucky), Florida is probably already thinking about a matchup with Alabama in the SEC title tilt. We certainly wouldn t blame them for looking past an Arkansas team that they re 9-1 SU and ATS against all-time especially when the Gators own a 6-0 ATS mark away before back-to-back home games and arrive with a defense that ranks second in the nation. However, can we really trust an ineffective UF squad that is just 3-9 ATS as road chalk of 6 or less points? Our MIDWEEK ALERT says yes as the Swamp squad is limiting foes to 3.1 yards per rush while the Hogs are allowing a jaw-dropping 6.9 yards per carry. That s a gap that even the late Evil Knievel might not want to tackle. Unfortunately, our thrill-seeking database doesn t entirely agree as the Hogs are 5-0 ATS after allowing 45 or more points, 3-0 ATS at home with rest and 14-5 SU and 16-3 ATS in Game Nine. However, Arky is also 0-8 ATS after scoring less than 7 points and that has us sitting on the sidelines as we ll let our machine and Midweek fight this one out. Next. COLORADO ST over Fresno St by 21 A pair of Mountain West teams on red-hot ATS runs butt heads this afternoon in the high country. The host Rams have cashed a solid five tickets in their last six outings versus FBS foes while the going-nowherefast Bulldogs own a surprising 4-0 ATS win skein of their own (2-0 ATS since HC Tim DeRuyter was dispatched). But while the lame-duck Dogs have (continued on next page) page 7

8 managed to pay a few bills lately, their In The Stats numbers still remain downright sickly: -128 YPG in FBS contests this season, which is actually up a smidge from Mike Bobo s squad may be only 2-2 in the MWC Mountain division, and 4-4 overall, but we figure the Rams are all set to continue their patented late-season surge how does 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS mark in their final five games the past two seasons sound? en route to garnering a fourth consecutive bowl berth. Further support comes from Colorado State s super-sharp 9-1 SUATS mark as a favorite in games off a SU underdog win, especially when we get a look at Fresno s current 3-8 ATS road dog log. And not only do the Rams have the advantage of a week of rest today, they ve also compiled a rock-solid 15-6 ATS log in games with rest off a SUATS win. Hey, we re not normally big chalk players but we ll be laying it here. OLE MISS over Ga Southern by 24 This looks like a KILLER matchup last year. It would have been a battle of 6-2 teams, featuring a GSU squad that finished 9-3 and an Ole Miss team that went 10-3, with both teams winning their bowl game in a blowout. But now it s apparent the Eagles aren t flying anywhere near the altitude they have been the past two seasons while the Rebels have been punished with three consecutive SEC defeats. It only took two plays last week: midway through the fourth quarter, a wide-open Evan Engram dropped what would have been a go-ahead touchdown for the Rebs against Auburn. On the very next play, QB Chad Kelly threw his only interception of the night and the Tigers returned it to the Ole Miss 25. Game over. Yes, at 3-5 this season, Johnny Reb needs wins in three of their final five games to snag a bowl bid, but while Vegas feels this game has romp written all over it, we re not sure. Granted, these are the kind of teams that Hugh Freeze normally eats for lunch (28-4 SU and 21-6 ATS versus non-winning opponents, including 11-0 SUATS in non-conference scrapes), we feel like this is one down-in-the-mouth bunch of Rebels right now. Georgia Southern has struggled to a 4-4 mark under 1st-year HC Tyson Summers, but the Eagles are still in the bowl hunt and they figure to become bowl-eligible by winning Sun Belt contests in their final three games, not here. And while this GSU team doesn t have the firepower of previous editions, the visitors have scared the living daylights out of SEC foes the past two seasons, dropping four games by a total of 22 points while going ATS in the process. The bottom line? While we should be on Ole Miss like gravy over grits, we ll defer to GSU s pedigree and put up the stop sign. TROY over UMass by 20 This one couldn t have come at a better time for the Trojans. Fresh off a bye week, they get a tune-up this afternoon against the vagabond Minutemen before facing fellow unbeaten Sun Belters Appalachian State and Arkansas State. Yes, it s the time of year when you have to stop and think: in what conference does Massachusetts reside? Don t worry if your brain has turned to mush as these wanderers are currently an Independent likely headed back to FCS waters sooner than later. The Minutemen are also off a rare win (albeit against Wagner) but at 1-9 SU in games off a SU win, they re no threat in this contest. Already bowl eligible at 6-1 this season, this figures to be more of a scrimmage for the resurgent Trojans. Troy s defense has certainly stepped up of late: after allowing 30 points in a near-upset of Clemson and 31 points to Southern Miss, the lower Alabama gang has limited its last four foes to a mere 15 PPG. But schedule-wise, this will be the only time the Trojans step outside the conference since the USM game on 9/17. That unfamiliarity with today s adversary, along with those aforementioned monster matchups on deck, means we ll have to take a pass here. Anybody up for some fishin? RICE over Fla Atlantic by 1 Here it is! The Garbage Can game of the week pairs the worst the CUSA has to offer with 1-7 / 0-4 Florida Atlantic tackling (we think) 1-7 / 0-5 Rice. And if you re even considering a play on this farce, you d better start reciting your 12 Steps pronto. Where s the drama, you ask? Hey, this battle between two groups of Owls is for much more than bragging rights: the winner will take possession of their FIRST victory against an FBS team in 2016 (1-7 Rice beat Prairie View A&M while FAU s lone SU win came over Southern Illinois). Our best bet on this game is that you ll be able to walk in and take your choice of seats just about anywhere at Rice Stadium. As for a recommendation, the inept home-team Owls (-224 YPG in FBS battles this season) are an astonishing 7-0 ATS as favorites of less than 4 points of late. But the invading Owls counter with a strong 12-1 ATS mark as a dogs against foes off a loss. Is is a standoff? With powerful trends on opposite sides, you can t blame us if we yell fowl! A weak nod to the half-baked birds from Boca. WYOMING over Utah St by 1 How bout them Cowboys! And no, we re not talking about the pro team from Dallas but the get-out-of-our-way cowpokes from Laramie, Wyoming. The surprising Boys won their fourth straight game (3-0-1 ATS) and notched their first win over a ranked opponent since 2102 when they knocked Boise Sate from the ranks of the undefeated last week. With the decision, 3rd-year head coach Craig Bohl finally has his team playing up to expectations after a difficult 6-18 SU start during his first two years with the reins. Now 6-2 overall and sitting atop the MWC Mountain division with a 4-0 conference mark, this should be the perfect time to stomp on a struggling Utah State squad that s lost four of its last five outings, right? Maybe not. At just 3-5 on the season, the Aggies will be balls to the wall looking to pick up three more wins down the stretch to extend their 5-year bowl streak. They also smoked these same Cowboys, 58-27, as 24.5-point home chalk last year and now they re 7-points underdogs? Not when our database informs us that teams like Wyoming who upend 5-0 or greater foes as dogs are just ATS as favorites of 6 or more points the following game. We like challenging a favorite coming off a signature win for the program, and an ATS cover for Utah State tonight would improve their series mark against Wyoming to 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS! No aggie-nizing needed take the points. S CAROLINA over Missouri by 3 If you ve ever wondered what a South Carolina-Missouri game would look like without Steve Spurrier and Gary Pinkel stalking the sidelines, here s your chance. Currently the SEC East cellar-dwellers, the Tigers beat the Gamecocks, 24-10, at home last year despite winning the stats by a mere yard, And after a slow start, new Mizzou head coach Barry Odom has ignited the offense, piling up 33 points and 499 yard per game this season as opposed to just 14 PPG and 281 YPG last year. The problem for Missouri is that those accomplishments have not led to results on the scoreboard, as the squad s two wins this season lags far behind the five they won in Meanwhile, the Cocks are coming off their biggest win in the Will Muschamp era in last week s shocker over Tennessee as 15-point dogs. They must change roles today, though, and that s the fly in the ointment: South Carolina is just 2-9 SUATS in games when seeking revenge off a SU underdog win, including 1-6 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium. In a matchup between Missouri s 33 PPG defense and the Gamecocks 21 PPG defense, we suggest you hold your nose and grab the points. South Alabama over UL-MONROE by 16 Don t park anywhere near Malone Stadium in Monroe, Louisiana this week unless you want to risk returning to your car to find a smashed windshield and a pair of tickets to this game. While it s somewhat strange to see the 4-4 Jags as double-digit road chalk, a closer look at the hosts will explain why. At 5-25 SU in their last 30 games, the Warhawks of UL-Monroe have simply become fodder for teams looking to pad their record. And at 1-5 ATS in their last six home dog roles, they cannot be trusted with anything except Monopoly money. There won t be any shortage of incentive for the visiting Jaguars as two more wins should find South Alabama headed to the alleys this year (wins over San Diego State and Mississippi State make it a virtual certainty). A 4-1 SUATS mark as road chalk puts the Jags on their way, and Monroe s 488 YPG defense ensures the journey will be a pleasant one. Take the guys with something to play for. UL-LAFAYETTE over Idaho by 3 In a rare treat for football fans in the Sportsman s Paradise state, the UL-team from southern Louisiana plays on its home field today while the WarHawks from ULM also perform in front of the home folks. But in a disturbingly cruel move, the schedule-makers have arranged for both games to kick off at exactly the same time meaning that we have to choose one. Well, it s Homecoming for the Cajuns, so we ll head to Lafayette for some gumbo and pralines in what should be a fun atmosphere. However, thanks to our well-known aversion to playing Homecoming favorites, you know Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com page 8

9 which side of the ATS field we ll be sitting on this evening. That s okay the Vandals have refused to raise the white flag in what looks to be their final FBS season and, as a result, the Spuds are still in the running to be postseason bound for the first time since Earning a bowl bid is still on 6th-year ULL head coach Mark Hudspeth s mind but he s lost his grip on the team recently, going just 7-12 SU in his last 19 games after FOUR consecutive 9-4 seasons during his first four years at Lafayette. However, Cajun Field has never been an intimidating venue and despite a 2-0 ATS mark this year as home chalk, the Ragin Cajuns are only 8-13 ATS in that role the last four-plus seasons. Thus, we ll take what we can get with the boys from Moscow this evening. W KENTUCKY over Florida Int l by 28 Yes, the competition has been somewhat mediocre (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Florida Atlantic) but Western Kentucky seems to have worked out is offensive kinks in its last three wins, averaging 51.7 PPG. But the eternal hunger for bowl scraps still burns inside the Panthers, especially after they put up a season-high 517 yards in a 7-point loss to Middle Tennessee last week. Unfortunately for FIU, that defeat means the cats will now need to win their final three games including this one to don their bowling shoes in December. That s not likely to happen, not here against a Hilltoppers bunch that has seemingly hit its stride, or in the season finale at Old Dominion. Western Kentucky currently holds a half-game lead on MTSU and ODU and a one-game lead on FIU in the CUSA East so despite the big number, this is a critical game for Jeff Brohm s boys. With WKU a stout 18-4 SU in the last 22 contests, chances are good that the Hilltoppers will win on the scoreboard. But while they ve covered the spread in the last four series meetings, only ONE of those wins came by more than 8 points. Considering today s line is approaching four touchdowns, we say take it or leave it. La Tech over NORTH TEXAS by 14 Don t get greedy now, Skippy. Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz is reknowned for his pointspread-covering capabilities when taking points but lately he s been bringing home the ATS bacon as a favorite, too. The Bulldogs have won and covered three straight as double-digit chalk, although their victim list is comprised by three of the biggest stiffs in the FBS (combined SU record to date, 6-20). This week s 4-4 opponent ain t much of a step up in class but North Texas has posted a pesky ATS record so far under 1st-year HC Seth Littrell. And even though the Mean Green is getting out-gained by 50 YPG in 2016, they ve improved their offensive and defensive scoring numbers over last year s totals by 11 and 13 points, respectively. In addition, revenge from a rout at Ruston last year should serve North Texas well in the desired Homecoming dog role here. Despite their recent troubles, the Green have brought home the green as home dogs of late, posting a ATS record overall and going ATS as pups at Denton when taking more than 7 points. Holtz has his Bulldogs leading Southern Miss by a half-game in the CUSA West and La Tech is arguably playing its best ball of the season. But with North Texas also improving on the field and just two wins shy of a bowl bid today s number is a bit rich for our taste. Washington over CALIFORNIA by 16 If you haven t seen Chris Petersen s Huskies play this year, be advised that they are armed and dangerous, and as complete a football team as we ve seen all year long outside the SEC West. QB Jake Browning (28/3 TD-to-INT ratio) and RB Myles Gaskin (6.5 YPC) fuel the offense but how about a good word for the unsung Washington defense, a unit that has improved on last year s outstanding 19 PPG average by holding 2016 foes to just 15.8 PPG. Plus, you can be sure Petersen can t wait to get after the Golden Bears tonight after Cal upset the Huskies at Seattle last year, Recent ATS results in this series point to the sled dogs as U-Dub has cashed in five of the last seven meetings, plus the visitor has covered four straight. Besides that, however, there aren t enough good numbers to recommend either side in this Pac-12 rumble. Washington has resurgent USC up next and the Huskies have failed miserably at concentrating on the game at hand while looking ahead to the Trojans, going 0-7 ATS before Southern Cal. The dawgs also own a pitiful 1-6 ATS mark on the conference road when playing with revenge and they re a mediocre 2-5 ATS of late as road chalk of 13 or more points. Meanwhile, Cal s 41.8 PPG defense is about as intimidating as the Bears 1-8 ATS slide versus a Pac-12 revenger or their 1-5 ATS mark as double-digit home dogs. The line has climbed to UW -17 so any value to be had with the hosts is long gone. With bigger fish to fry, we ll let you make the call here. NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded. 3 BEST BET USC over Oregon by 3 The Trojans are riding on their high horse once again as oddsmakers have bought into their recent 4-game win skein, making them doubledigit chalk over Oregon tonight. We won t fall for it, though, as this is a dreaded Homecoming affair and USC is looking directly ahead to a bigger battle with Pac-12 king Washington next week. Remember, Southern Cal has been the underdog in this series the last four meetings, with only ONE win to show for it. Instead, we ll take last week s 54-point, 737-yard outburst by the Ducks as a buy-sign with OU now 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in this series when both teams are playing off a win (7-1 ATS when the Webfeet are off a spread win of more than 6 points). If that s not strong enough for you, check out Oregon s equally sharp 7-1 ATS mark when taking doubles on the road, including 5-0 ATS when facing a foe off a double-digit win. This team has been a fixture in postseason play for the last decade but with a 3-5 record and games still to come versus Stanford and Utah it s pretty much now or never for the Quack Attack if they want to keep their bowl streak alive. We think Oregon HC Mark Helfrich has enough sideline experience and talent on the field to give the Trojans a run for their money. Which leads us to THE CLINCHER: 3-win teams in Game Eight of the season who were bowlers the previous season are 17-4 ATS when playing off a double-digit win. OLD DOMINION over Marshall by 13 Like Prince said, it s a sign o the times. What else could explain the Thundering Herd taking double-digits from freakin Old Dominion in Norfolk tonight? Granted, the Monarchs are in three-way battle for the CUSA East top spot and are just one win shy of going to the first bowl game in school history but double digits? You d better believe it. Not only were our suspicions of Marshall s incredibly rapid demise accurate, the Herd is being pounded each week on the opening line. This week they opened as 8-point dogs and by Monday, the number had moved to 12. Remember, Doc Holliday s gang were 17-point favorites in this game last year and won by 20! But this year s squad has all the earmarks of a team that has simply packed it in and are looking for an exit. ODU enters on an attentiongetting 4-1 SUATS run and also owns a 3-0 ATS mark off a double-digit win versus a foe off back-to-back losses. Those aren t exactly trophy-winning numbers but they shine bright when compared to a Marshall squad that s been out-yarded in each of the Herd s last six games. Yeah, if the line doesn t continue to climb, we re on the royal rulers here. SAN DIEGO ST over Hawaii by 28 Well, the Warriors had a chance to hang on to their newly-awarded apostrophe but after losing last week s defensive struggle to New Mexico at the Island, that little piece of punctuation won t be seen here. However, if Hawaii can somehow manage to take down the Aztecs here, we ll give them a permanent apostrophe! But while the well-traveled Warriors are entertaining visions of going to a bowl if they can get two more wins, tonight s visit to San Diego probably won t help their chances. Yes, UH head coach Nick Rolovich has his team playing competitive football earlier than most thought possible, winning three of their last five games on the scoreboard while losing by only 3 and 7 points in the two defeats. But a 0-3 ITS slide over the last three outings is not a good indicator, not against SDSU s Top 5-ranked defense, a unit that is limiting opponents to just 282 YPG, including 91 YPG on the ground. Rocky Long s team has rebounded nicely from its annual loss to South Alabama on October 1, going on a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS tear. The Aztecs have certainly owned this series the last four years, going 4-0 SU and ATS and they ve shown a profit when playing on this field, going ATS versus Hawaii in the last six get-togethers at Qualcomm Stadium. Most convincing of all, though, is San Diego State s 28-4 SU and ATS record in regular season games from Game Six out the last five years, including a jaw-dropping 12-0 SU and ATS. So while the Warriors remain in search of their missing apostrophe, the Aztecs put an exclamation mark on a one-sided win tonight. Grammar class is now over. TEXAS TECH over Texas by 1 Another game where both teams arrive off deceptive inside-out wins (won the games but lost the stats). Tech showed what they could do when the defense comes to play, outlasting TCU in overtime a game that saw the father of Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes hauled off to the Fort Worth hoosegow for public intoxication. Things didn t go much better for the younger Mahomes, who suffered a shoulder injury and is currently listed (continued on next page) page 9

10 as day-to-day (aren t we all?). As for the Longhorns, HC Charlie Strong may not be able to get arrested if he doesn t keep winning as most reports indicate he ll be shown the door at season s end. We can certainly expect a huge letdown for the Horns today after knocking Baylor from the ranks of the undefeated: Texas is jut 3-7 ATS following a win over a 5-0 or greater opponent. Strong follows suit with a money-burning 7-13 ATS record in conference games following a SUATS win. Texas Tech HC Kliff Kingsbury is also on the hot seat and could really use a win here with away contests against Oklahoma State and Baylor still on the docket. Our allknowing database sides with Kliffie: home teams in conference games, off an overtime win, are 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS when hosting a foe off a SU underdog win since the inception of OT in 1996, including 11-1 SUATS in games in which they manage to score 21 or more points. But with the Raiders D allowing an ugly 41.4 PPG in 2016, Tech will have to light up the scoreboard to add to those numbers. So until the status of star QB Mahomes is updated, we ll wait patiently in the wings, ready to pounce on Red should he be behind center. Texas A&M over MISSISSIPPI ST by 6 Aggies got over their loss to Alabama two weeks ago by pounding pitiful New Mexico State, But the final margin wasn t enough to cover the 43.5-point line and as a result, Texas A&M has now lost the money in each of its last four games. In similar fashion, Mississippi State got back in the win column against Samford after losing three in a row. While A&M has played at a much higher level than the Bulldogs this season, the ATS numbers in today s high-noon shootout from Starkville clearly favor the hosts. The Aggies have not taken care of business as double-digit road chalk lately, posting a weak 1-4 ATS mark, and they ve stumbled to a 3-11 ATS failure when playing against an SEC revenger. Despite an extremely disappointing 3-5 effort so far, MSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, and has cashed in five of its last six appearances as a double-digit home dog. Head coach Dan Mullen, whose Halloween party theme was Welcome To My Nightmare, should keep his chin up here: he s an eye-popping SU at Davis Wade Stadium, with only five losses by more than 14 points making him 47-5 ATS to today s number! Toss in Mullen s spotless 4-0 ATS mark as a home dog of more than 12 points and like a lobbyist after the election, we re on the take. SMU over Memphis by 3 Stop the presses! After a 2-10 effort last year, SMU head coach Chad Morris has his Mustangs riding a 2-game win streak and just two wins shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Across the field, 1st-year HC Mike Norvell has done a good job replacing Justin Fuente, directing the Tigers to a 5-3 start while nearly matching last season s offensive and defensive numbers. But after visiting the pay window in their first three games of the year, the striped cats have become lost in the deep end of a 0-5 ATS skid. Yes, they need another win to become bowl eligible, and the final three games of the campaign are salty, but we don t like the red-faced revenge aspect of this contest: Memphis DESTROYED the Ponies in last year s regular season finale, 63-0, and humiliations like that are not soon forgotten. A trip to the ATS history books tells us the Mustangs are in a profitable position this afternoon in Dallas. The Tigers show up in Big D with a wimpy 0-5 ATS mark as road favorites of less than 7 points against a foe off a win while the hosts own a blemish-free 6-0 ATS record as home dogs off consecutive SU wins. Why dig any deeper. We say giddy up and grab the points with the Ponies. PENN ST over Iowa by 3 So is Penn State for real? James Franklin s team foiled many players who were expecting the Lions to let down after their seismic upset of Ohio State a week earlier by obliterating Purdue at West Lafayette as 15.5-point road chalk, 62-24, last Saturday. And since the Lions were taken out behind the woodshed at Michigan in late September, PSU is on a big-time 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS conference roll (lone ATS loss came by a half-point versus Minnesota). Iowa is a far cry from last year s 12-2 squad, compiling a 5-3 record mostly because of the Hawkeyes frustrating insistence on playing down to the level of their competition. But despite their downer season, the Hawks are still in a 3-way tie for second in the Big Ten West and are actually only one game out of the top spot. Like Iowa, Penn State is also only one game back of Michigan in the Big Ten East and should run the table in its final three contests after tonight. Thanks to the consistent play of QB Trace McSorley and RB Saquon Barkley, the Nits scored 24 points in the 3rd quarter at Purdue last week to turn a close game into a rout. Still, the favorite is 0-3 ATS in PSU conference home games this season and Iowa ain t exactly a familiar figure, having last faced the Lions in Joe Paterno s final season (2011). We certainly questioned some of the play-calling by head Hawkeye Kirk Ferentz in last week s home loss to Wisconsin, but with Captain Kirk now ATS as a conference dog off a loss against a foe off a win, we ll give the points a close look at Happy Valley today. STANFORD over Oregon St by 10 Well, THAT took long enough. After being lost in an early season slumber a 1-3 losing streak where the Tree-huggers scored a measly 11 PPG the Cardinal were finally awakened by HC David Shaw and delivered a muchneeded drubbing of Arizona at Tucson. Now at 5-3 SU, a check of Stanford s remaining schedule shows the Farm Boys have a good shot at winning out for a 9-3 finish. More importantly, can the Cardinal claw their way back into the Pac-12 North race? Nah, not sitting three games back of Washington and Washington State. Can Stan avoid looking ahead to a double-revenger with Oregon the following week? Sure. They Cardinal are 11-0 ATS in games before facing the Ducks. But can we really lay this many points with a team that is quite honestly a shell of their former selves? Nope. Over in Corvallis, the Beavers aren t winning games on the scoreboard (2-6 SU) but they are cashing tickets, going 6-1 ATS versus FBS opponents including four consecutive covers versus the Pac-12 s best. Results like that are what keeps OSU head coach Gary Anderson on our Christmas list, and despite his team s poor series history against the Farm Boys, we ll be shopping with him again today. Andersen s career road dog log is the gift that keep on giving ATS overall, including 12-2 ATS when taking 14 or more points. With the pressure of renewed expectations weighing on the hosts, we ll back the Beavers this afternoon. WASHINGTON ST over Arizona by 14 While their in-state rival Huskies continue to hog the headlines, Mike Leach s Cougars have quietly forged a 1st-place tie with Washington in the Pac-12 North race. All this following a stunning, season-opening loss to Eastern Washington and a narrow defeat against Boise State in Game Two. Since then, the pride of Pullman have won six straight with five of the victories coming over conference foes. No such luck for the sad-sack Wildcats. With only a pair of wins to show in 2016, it s going to be a long offseason for Rich Rod if his team fails to win each of its final four games. Otherwise, he ll be listening to Christmas carols, something he hasn t done for the last five years but current form (0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS and ITS) suggests it will soon be time to cue up the music. Even so, a win here does not necessarily translate into an ATS cover. Check out this funky line on the Cougars for the last three games: 3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-0 ITS... it says they re winning games on the scoreboard and on the playing field, but not by a big enough margin. There s little doubt that Wazzu will dominate the stats here: after the aforementioned loss to EWU, WSU has out-yarded every foe in their path, holding four of them to season low or 2nd low yards. Our biggest concern here is they ve been dogs in the last SEVEN games in this series. The last time they were favored was in 2006 as 17-point home chalk, a game they lost We ll take that as an omen and avoid getting involved here. LSU over Alabama by 1 Ho-hum. Another week, another heavyweight slugfest in the SEC West. And as we usually do with big games like this, we check in with our SEC scout, Jaybird the Bulldog, who lost a few cases of beer and some personal dignity thanks to last week s Florida win over Georgia. Unbelievable, says Jaybird. How could a school that s featured some of the greatest running backs in college football history rush for only 21 yards against the Gators? Earth to Jaybird: what about THIS game? Well, I never thought I d say this, but getting rid of LSU head coach Les Miles has been like a surgical procedure where every last bit of the tumor was successfully removed. The Tigers are re-energized and LSU is finally playing like the team that many thought would be the SEC s best this season. But can the Bayou Bengals take down Alabama in Tiger Stadium? Hey, they don t call it Death Valley for nothing! We ll have to admit the Scout could be on to something. After interim HC Ed Orgeron took the restraints off the Tigers offense, they re averaging a whopping 41.7 PPG and RB Leonard Fournette is finally looking dangerously healthy again. Even with Fournette s physical problems this year, he s rushed for more than 90 yards in every conference game, and Big Leonard could be Alabama s worst nightmare come to life. As far as the numbers game goes, recent ATS results add more support to the home team. The rested Tigers are not only 5-1 ATS at home off a bye week, they ve gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight tries as SEC home dogs of 4 or more points. On the flip side, not only are the Tide just 1-4 ATS away with rest off a SUATS conference win, they re also only 4-10 ATS as SEC road chalk of fewer than 14 points. Yes, a lot of negative numbers working against the top team in the land, but none worse than Marc s ALL REVVED UP Betcha Didn t Know article on page 2, which tells you all you need to know about taking a side in the contest. You know what to do. NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded. page 10

11 Wisconsin over NORTHWESTERN by 6 While Michigan and Ohio State continue to steal the Big Ten thunder, the overlooked Badgers just keep steamrolling anyone and everything in their path as they ve now held six opponent to season low or 2nd low yards this year. But while the 4-4 Wildcats certainly haven t lived up to expectations (especially on defense), they have cashed four tickets in a row and the series host has covered six of the last seven meetings. That s about all the good news we have for either side in this matchup. Wisky is riding a 0-3 ATS skein after shucking corn with Nebraska and a miserable 1-6 ATS mark as chalk when playing with conference revenge (Badgers fell to the Wildcats last year as double-digit home chalk, 12-7). Not to be outdone, Northwestern checks in with a 2-8 ATS failure as Big Ten home dogs of more than 3 points and a nearly-as-bad 2-7 ATS effort versus a conference revenger. Sheesh! With flip flopping numbers and motivation applying to both teams, we ll take a seat on the sidelines for today s nooner from Evanston. Next. 5 BEST BET OHIO ST over Nebraska by 28 Just as we thought, the huge upset at Penn State two weeks ago only the second SU regular season loss suffered by Ohio State during Urban Meyer s tenure really knocked the Buckeyes sideways. Like most teams in Bubble Burst mode, OSU suffered the same pangs last Saturday against Northwestern, never coming close to covering the 26-point line in an erratic win over the Wildcats. But that was then and this is now. Expect to see the Bucks breathing fire today at Ohio Stadium, especially with Meyer currently 25-3 SU at home off a home win-no cover. He s also a reliable 6-1 SU versus a foe playing off their first loss of the season. As for the ATS outcome, our welloiled machine informs us that college football teams like Nebraska who suffered their first loss of the season in an overtime game are 7-17 ATS in follow-up contests with EVERY one of them favored (Huskers will be the FIRST underdog in this role). And while Nebraska HC Mike Riley has managed to quell the unrest in Lincoln with a 7-1 start, he s just 1-3 ATS in conference games following his first loss of the season; in this case, a setback to Wisconsin that will likely leave the corn boys with a severe Bubble Burst hangover tonight. If you re into numerology, be advised that Game Nine has been good to the Buckeyes, who have gone 19-2 SU and 15-6 ATS over the previous 21 years. Regardless, Ohio State is primed to get back in the CFB Playoff chase and we think they ll make a major statement in this nationally televised Big Ten clash. As usual, our closing argument comes courtesy of THE CLINCHER: Meyer is 3-0 SU at home in his career in games off 4 ATS losses in a row by an average win margin of 37 PPG. NEW MEXICO over Nevada by 10 Things looked pretty bleak for New Mexico early in the season. After opening with a win at home over FCS foe South Dakota, the Lobos came unglued on the road, dropping back-to-back decisions against lightweights New Mexico State and Rutgers. That s when head coach Bob Davie knew their season was on the line, and with the campus located in Albuquerque, it was only fitting that Davie chose to refocus his team by quoting possibly the city s most famous citizen: Walter White. We are not ramping down, said Davie. We re just getting started. Nothing stops this train! Since then, the Lobos have gone 4-1 SU, including 3-1 in the MWC and a pair of SU road wins, while piling up 40.2 PPG and rushing for YPG. Unfortunately for Davie and company, laying points at home is not where they excel, posting a weak 1-5 ATS mark in their last six appearances as home chalk of 4 or more points. Not much has gone right for the visiting Wolf Pack this season (1-4 SU and ATS last five) but they do bring a glittering ATS mark as conference road dogs of 7 or more points when facing a.500 or greater foe. With New Mexico just a half-game back in the MWC Mountain division race, current form and need points to the Lobos but recent series history of 0-3 SU in the last three meetings with Nevada does not. C FLORIDA over Tulane by 14 These two were supposed to get it on back on October 7th but the arrival of Hurricane Matthew forced the game to be moved to this weekend. Quite frankly, neither team has enjoyed much success since the original meeting was cancelled. The Green Wave has had the wind taken out of their sails by going 0-3 SUATS during this time span while the Knights are just 1-2 SU and 0-3 In The Stats since the postponement. We can t lay points with a leaking oil favorite like that, even against a Tulane squad that s now 0-4 in the AAC and 3-5 overall. The visitors have also seen their prospects of going bowling grow dramatically dimmer in the passing weeks, and with Houston and Temple still waiting, the Wave is all but dead in the water. Surprisingly, despite a 2-2 mark in the AAC East, UCF is somehow just a halfgame back of leaders Temple and USF. In addition, the Knights 5-2 ATS log this season versus FBS foes tells us the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to their turnaround from last year s 0-12 SU and 2-9 ATS disaster. Even so, we ll ignore UCF s 4-0 SUATS record in this series in games when Tulane arrives off a loss and put this game on the shelf. PRO FOOTBALL Thursday, November 3 TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 1 There are lots of pluses and minuses for both teams in this Thursday night snoozer. For openers, the Falcons are 1-11 ATS as favorites under head coach Dan Quinn. That s not good. It goes hand-in-hand with the fact that this week s INCREDIBLE STAT is at work against Atlanta tonight as the favorite in Falcons games is now 3-21 ATS behind the mighty Quinn. After escaping with a 1-point win over Green Bay last week, the Dirty Birds fly down to Tampa knowing the they are 9-2 ATS on Thursdays, while the Bucs are 1-6 ATS on the same day. Tampa is also 3-9 SUATS at home behind erratic QB Jameis Winston. However, the Bucs are 16-7 ATS at home in this series throughout the first ten games of the season, including 5-0 ATS the last five games in which Atlanta arrives off a win. So where do we turn from here? With the Falcons just 1-4 ATS in games after facing the Packers when taking on a foe off a SUATS loss along with the minus sign hanging over Quinn s head it s a take. Sunday, November 6 KANSAS CITY over Jacksonville by 3 Concern over concussion symptoms for Chiefs QB Alex Smith proved false after the signal caller was last seen wobbling in a state of Goodellism last Sunday. That s NFL speak for Don t even think about it. We, the brass, will determine whether a player s safety is an issue or not. What we do know is that the Chiefs are 3-10 ATS as home favorites of 4 or more points following consecutive wins. Worse, KC stands 3-16 ATS as home chalk without rest against losing opponents who lost their last game. That the Jaguars are 0-8 SU following Thursday games since 2001 doesn t help their case. But we re talking about hanging a number here, folks, not winning the game. Given Andy Reid s rotten 1-8 ATS career mark at home against AFC South invaders, we d have to have a knot growing on our head not to back the Jags, if you know what we mean. 5 BEST BET MINNESOTA over Detroit by 16 Bye weeks are supposed to be welcome respites for NFL teams. Not so for Mike Zimmer s Vikings who, since their annual week off to go fishing, are 0-2 SUATS upon returning. Talk about a buzz kill for a team that opened the season on a 5-0 SUATS win skein. So what does the league s most embarrassed team do to shake itself out of its funk? Invite the Lions as a guest. After all, Detroit is SU in away games since 2001, including ATS when facing foes off a SUATS loss, including 5-23 SU and ATS from Game Seven out. In addition, the Lions are 2-8 ATS the last 10 games in this series, including 1-5 ATS the last six games in Minnesota. On the flip side, the Vikes are 6-0 ATS off an away game when facing a foe also off an away game, and 4-0 ATS after butting heads with the Bears. Furthermore, like Dorothy and Toto, there is no place like home for Minnesota following a pair of road losses where they stand 3-0 SUATS at U.S. Bank Stadium. Unless, of course, you wish to add THE CLINCHER: The Vikings are 11-1 ATS following a division game under head coach Mike Zimmer. Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 3 Both the Eagles and the Giants find themselves locked in a 3-way tie for the 2nd spot in the NFC East. Thus, the loser of this contest is headed right to the cellar. Philly has dominated New York of late, going 4-0 SUATS the past two seasons in this series. However, the Eagles are just 4-10 SUATS in games following the Dallas Cowboys. Worse, winning NFL teams in Game Eight of the season who were losing teams last year are ATS when facing an opponent off back-to-back wins. The G-Men can t handle success, though, as they are just 5-11 ATS at home off two wins-exact when hosting a foe off a loss, including 1-5 ATS in division games. Furthermore, QB Eli Manning (continued on next page) page 11

12 is 3-10 SUATS at home against Philadelphia, including 1-8 SUATS the last nine. With the Giants a wonky 3-13 SU and ATS in this series since 2008, including 1-8 SU and ATS at home, our duty is to take the points. Make it yours, too. Dallas over CLEVELAND by 4 America s team was at their best under the Sunday Night lights last week when they stormed back to take down the Eagles in overtime. It marked their SIXTH consecutive win and cover this season. The task at hand today will be to not play down to the level of the worst team in the league. And that will arguably be their toughest task of the season to date. The Cowboys 0-3 ATS record in their last three games as a favorite versus the AFC North and a 2-9 ATS as road chalk of 7 or more points in non-division games confirms our notion. Meanwhile, Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS against opponents coming off a home game. Granted, the Browns are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC North opponents but this game has letdown written all over it. And should he start, look for Josh McCown to improve on his 6-1 ATS career mark as a dog off a loss versus foes off back-to-back wins here today. 3 BEST BET NY Jets over MIAMI by 7 Miami s nemesis, the New York Jets, appear to be back in flight with a pair of SUATS wins in their last two games. That s not good news for the Fish, who are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS the last five games in this series. Worse, Miami is 0-9 ATS at home off consecutive wins when facing a division opponent coming off a SUATS win. Adding to Miami s misery is its 0-7 ATS record in the second of back-to-back division games. We realize the Dolphins have found a running back in Jay Ajayi, who will be chasing history today following back-to-back 200- yard rushing performances. Ajayi has had a very heavy workload the past two games with 54 combined carries for 418 yards, so the bye week should serve him well. Miami s 0-6 ATS mark as a rested division home favorite does not, though. Nor does Jets boss and former Miami interim head coach Todd Bowles 4-0 ATS career mark as a division dog. And yes, Bowles likely wants this game more than any other on this year s schedule. We cement the call with this beauty from our well-oiled machine: THE CLINCHER: The Jets are 22-4 ATS as division underdogs against foes off an ATS win, including 15-0 ATS when taking more than 3 points. Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE by 1 The Steelers will be asking a lot of Landry Jones today. In only his fourth NFL career start (1-2 SUATS overall), Jones will try and overcome Baltimore s 9-1 ATS log at home in this series following consecutive losses. With both teams off a bye week, both coaches will likely roll out a few new wrinkles. John Harbaugh s frowning troops need them like blood as they ride a 4-game SUATS losing skein into this fray. Making matters worse, the Ravens are 1-9 ATS off consecutive losses when facing a division opponent coming off a SUATS loss. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 13-3 SU and ATS coming off a game in which they surrendered 27 or more points. We re tired of chasing the Ravens. Here s hoping the wrinkles on Mike Tomlin s mug are those from a game-ending grin from ear-to-ear. Take the Black-and-Gold. SAN FRANCISCO over New Orleans by 3 Don t look now but future Hall of fame QB Drew Brees is making a run for the playoffs. Just one game back of a Wild Card spot (should the playoffs start this week), the Saints are on a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run following a 0-3 start, and what better foe to keep the momentum going than the listless 49ers. And to that we say STOP RIGHT THERE before you go any further (thanks, Meat Loaf). For openers, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is SU and 6-17 ATS in games off a win when tackling a foe off consecutive losses, including 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS when his Saints are off a spread win of 6 or more points. Not to mention New Orleans 0-5 SUATS mark the last five games in this series. Toss in Frisco s 8-1 ATS dog log in games against foes off a SU underdog win, and Chip Kelly s 3-1 SUATS career mark in games off a SU favorite loss versus foes off a SU underdog win, and just like that this year s playoff dreams are last year s nightmare. Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com LA RAMS over Carolina by 3 If ever a team needed a wakeup call, it was the Panthers last week in their win over the Cardinals. The question is can they stay awake long enough to take down the Rams this Sunday? Carolina is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series, and Los Angeles is 0-3 SU in its last three games but they out-yarded their foes in all three contests. And that sets the table for this game as our all-knowing database informs us the Rams are 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS at home versus foes with a losing record during the 2nd Quarter (Games 5-8) of the season... yes, you read that right. The bottom line is Jeff Fisher is ever dangerous as an underdog (16-7 ATS as a home dog off a loss of 7 or more points) and the Panthers are a Super Bowl Loser non-division road favorite ( ATS). Set the alarm clock for this Sunday afternoon bailout. GREEN BAY over Indianapolis by 3 Both teams came up short in critical games last week, saddling each of them with three losses in their respective divisions. Thus each is swimming in dangerous waters at the midway point of the season. The history book tells us the Colts are 7-2 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog. They are also 6-0 ATS following a SUATS loss when facing an NFC opponent, and 3-1 SUATS as a dog the last four games against NFC North opponents. Conversely, the Packers are 1-5 ATS at home between away games when hosting a losing opponent. The bottom line is both teams are underachievers. The fact that Green Bay has held its last two foes to season-low yards, while Indy has surrendered season-high yardage in three of its last four contests points us to the probable winner. The question is whether it s enough to cover the impost. After doing a final discount double-check (thanks, Gabe), it s important to remember the Pack has won only ONE game by more than 7 points this season. Be careful here. 4 BEST BET SAN DIEGO over Tennessee by 14 If ever a team needed a sanctuary it would be San Diego s return home to host Tennessee this Sunday. After going toe-to-toe with Denver (twice) and Atlanta, the Chargers can take comfort in knowing the Titans are 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS away the last two-plus seasons, averaging 17.7 PPG in those contests. Tennessee is also 1-8 SU and ATS the last nine games in this series, including 0-5 SUATS at San Diego. Along with Titans head coach Mike Mularkey s 1-7 SUATS record in his career as an underdog following a win, it looks like a perfect fit for the Chargers. Toss in Diego s 16-6 SUATS mark in games following the Denver Broncos, including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS at home, and suddenly rickety old Qualcomm Stadium looks like a safe haven for the Bolts. And in case you re still not all that comfortable with this observation, then check out THE CLINCHER: San Diego is 24-7 SU and ATS all-time versus AFC South opponents, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS at home. Denver over OAKLAND by 6 With the upstart Oakland Raiders leading the surge, it appears the AFC West has become the preeminent division in the NFL this 2016 season. A battle of the AFC West leaders highlights this week s card when the Raiders host the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. It s a series, though, in which the Black-and-Silver has suffered many a black eye with the Broncos going 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. On the other side of the coin, the Raiders are 5-20 SU and ATS at home following an away game when facing an AFC West division opponent. Oakland is also 0-7 ATS off back-to-back away games, and 3-13 ATS when playing off a pair if wins. And speaking of the Broncos strong success in division games, try this on for size: Denver is 18-4 SUATS away against AFC West division rivals, including 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS versus.500 or greater AFC West foes. Rest assured, the Raiders had better not commit another NFL record 23 penalties tonight. Monday, November 7 SEATTLE over Buffalo by 3 If it isn t apparent the Seattle offense is going through a metamorphic change, then look again. While managing to score more than 27 points in only one contest this season (against San Francisco), the Seahawks are burning money as favorites (1-6 ATS the last seven games) faster than logs in a cabin on Lake Winnebago during a Wisconsin blizzard. Meanwhile, the Bills are 7-1 ATS following back-to-back SUATS losses after facing New England, and ATS as Monday Night dogs of 6 or more points. Toss in the Seahawks puny 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS mark in games before facing New England, and their 1-4 ATS record the last five games in this series, and it looks as if the changeover continues. Only the fact that Seattle is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 Monday Night games keeps us from snapping the rubber band page 12

13 Andy Iskoe thelogicalapproach.com Big Board Sports Billy The Kid playbook.com Brady Bryan Leonard wagertalk.com Chuck Edel bradpowerssports.com Doc s Sports docsports.com Hurricane Bill playbook.com JH-Sportsline jhsportsline.com Ken Thomson sportsxradio.com WISE GUYS CONTEST A $10,000 Winners-Take-All Handicapping Event Now in its 31st year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winnerstake-all handicapping event. All plays are graded against the lines posted after 4:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page. Each week below we ll post Single Plays from the Top 20 point-earners. Following the play is their overall Win-Loss record / Double Play record / Total Points earned to date. Below are the current Top 20 Contestants from the 2016 Wise Guys Contest One Point Single Plays Listed PANTHERS -3 Syracuse (+26) BRONCOS (+1) STEELERS (+2) Fresno St (+14.5) Southern Cal (-17) Utah State (+6.5) Buffalo (+20) NY GIANTS (-3) Cincinnati (+8.5) 10-6 / *6-2 / 17 pts / 6-2 / 16 pts 9-7 / 5-3 / 14 pts 10-6 / 5-3 / 15 pts 8-8 / 5-3 / 13 pts 11-5 / 6-2 / 17 pts / / 13 pts 12-4 / 4-4 / 16 pts / 4-4 / 13 pts / / 14 pts Marco D Angelo wagertalk.com Matty Baiungo prosportsinfo.com Okie Sports playbook.com Richard Witt playbook.com Rob Vinciletti goldencontender@aol.com Robert Ferringo docsports.com Ross Benjamin rossbenjaminsports.com Stan Lisowski playbook.com TD Tony ASHNetwork.com Victor King playbook.com NC State (+6) Iowa (+7.5) CHARGERS (-5) BRONCOS (+1) Tcu (+9.5) Syracuse (+26) Florida (-3.5) NY JETS (+3.5) Tcu (+9.5) NY JETS (+3.5) 9-7 / 5-3 / 14 pts 9-7 / 5-3 / 14 pts 9-7 / 6-2 / 15 pts 11-5 / 7-1 / 18 pts 10-6 / 5-3 / 15 pts 8-8 / *4-4 / 13 pts 11-5 / 6-2 / 17 pts 8-8 / 5-3 / 13 pts 10-6 / 5-3 / 15 pts 9-7 / 4-4 / 13 pts GAME MATCHUPS Atlanta TAMPA BAY Jacksonville KANSAS CITY Detroit MINNESOTA Philadelphia NY GIANTS Dallas CLEVELAND NY Jets MIAMI Pittsburgh BALTIMORE New Orleans SAN FRANCISCO THE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP: O/U STYLE AN 'OVER / UNDER' REPORT ON THIS WEEK'S NFL CARD BY VICTOR KING The first 8 games of the NFL schedule are listed below. As always, the number listed first is the OVER and the number listed second is the UNDER. *This week s Playbook O/U TREND play: BROWNS UNDER the TOTAL NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK NINE KEY OVER/UNDER STATS 7-1 O/U TY (61.7)... but 0-3 O/U Gm O/U as RF s L3Y O/U bef Phi O/U L10 div RG O/U Thursdays 6-0 O/U Thursdays O/U Gm 8... but 1-6 O/U 2nd of BB HG O/U bef Chi O/U L4 vs Atl (46.0) 4-0 O/U vs AFC West... but 0-3 O/U dogs 10 < vs opp off BBB SU wins O/U off SU loss 14 > pts O/U w/ line pts 5-1 O/U aft Ind... but 0-6 O/U non-div favs > 7 pts O/U vs opp off Thur gm O/U home vs AFC South 3-1 O/U away bef Bye... but 0-6 O/U vs opp off Mon gm O/U away vs.750 > opp O/U Gm O/U L14 div RG 7-2 O/U aft Mon gm... but 0-4 O/U in 2nd of BB div gms O/U Gm O/U bef Wash O/U L5 vs Det (33.2) 4-0 O/U L4 away vs NYG (57.8) O/U bef Atl O/U in 2nd of BB RG O/U Gm 8... but O/U aft Dal 6-1 O/U L7 div HG O/U bef Mon gm O/U in 1st of 3+ HG O/U Gm O/U aft Bye Week O/U aft Sun NIGHT gm O/U as RF s L3Y O/U bef Pit O/U vs.250 < opp Gm 4 > O/U vs AFC North 0-5 O/U Gm O/U L3 vs Dal (37.3) O/U home bef div RG O/U bef Thur gm O/U bef Balt O/U bef Oak O/U aft Clev O/U in 2nd of BB RG O/U away vs opp off Bye O/U div RD s 6 < pts 5-0 O/U in 3rd straight HG O/U bef SD... but O/U as div favs 6 < pts O/U Gm O/U L11 vs NY (36.9) 3-0 O/U bef Dal O/U as fav/dog 3 < pts... but 1-5 O/U vs opp off Bye O/U away aft Bye O/U L4 vs Bal (44.5) 0-6 O/U bef Clev O/U aft Bye O/U 1st of BB div gms O/U vs opp off Bye O/U off BBB SU losses 9-2 O/U vs.250 < opp Gm 4 > O/U bef non-conf HG O/U bef Den O/U away vs NFC West 5-1 O/U L6 gms (55.8) O/U vs NFC South O/U bef Arz O/U L6 vs Norl O/U aft Bye page 13

14 THIS WEEK'S BEST BETS FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2016 COLLEGE NFL UPSET GAME 3 BEST BET All times listed are Eastern Standard Time Games in Official International Rotation sequence Dates & times subject to change OL PB OL PB OL PB OL PB TUESDAY, NOVEMBER LOUISVILLE FRESNO ST 411 ALABAMA 7 12:00 PM 3:30 PM 8:00 PM 332 BOST COLL ESPN2 372 COLORADO ST LSU CBS BOWLING GREEN 333 PURDUE 373 GA SOUTHERN 413 WISCONSIN 5 6 8:00 PM 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 302 NO ILLINOIS ESPNU MINNESOTA BTN MISSISSIPPI ESPNU N WESTERN ABC 303 W MICHIGAN VIRGINIA TECH UMASS 415 NEBRASKA 304 8:00 PM 3:30 PM 8:00 PM BALL ST ESPN2 336 DUKE ESPNU 376 TROY OHIO ST ABC WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER SYRACUSE ABC 377 FLA ATLANTIC 417 NEVADA ESPN2 3:30 PM 10:15 PM TIME CHANGE 338 CLEMSON ESPN RICE NEW MEXICO TOLEDO 7:30 PM KANSAS 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE 379 UTAH ST 10:15 PM TIME CHANGE 419 TULANE 5:00 PM 306 AKRON ESPN2 340 W VIRGINIA ESPN WYOMING ESPN UCF THURSDAY, NOVEMBER INDIANA MISSOURI 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 342 RUTGERS BTN 382 S CAROLINA SEC 6 3 SUNDAY, NOVEMBER ATLANTA MICHIGAN ST NL SOUTH ALABAMA JACKSONVILLE 8:25 PM 12:00 PM 5:00 PM 1:00 PM 308 TAMPA BAY NFL ILLINOIS ESPNN 384 UL-MONROE 452 KANSAS CITY BUFFALO 345 FLORIDA ST IDAHO 453 DETROIT 310 6:00 PM 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE 5:00 PM 1:00 PM OHIO CBSSN NC STATE ESPNU 386 UL-LAFAYETTE MINNESOTA ARKANSAS ST MARYLAND 387 FLORIDA INT L 455 PHILADELPHIA :30 PM 5:30 PM 1:00 PM GEORGIA ST ESPNU 348 MICHIGAN ESPN W KENTUCKY NY GIANTS OKLAHOMA VIRGINIA LOUISIANA TECH DALLAS :30 PM 3:00 PM TIME CHANGE 5:30 PM 1:00 PM IOWA ST ESPN 350 WAKE FOREST ACC NORTH TEXAS 458 CLEVELAND 315 UCLA 351 OKLAHOMA ST ABC 391 WASHINGTON NY JETS :00 PM 10:30 PM TIME CHANGE 1:00 PM COLORADO FS KANSAS ST ESPN CALIFORNIA ESPN 460 MIAMI 4 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER EAST CAROLINA 393 OREGON 461 PITTSBURGH 1 8:00 PM TIME CHANGE 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE 1:00 PM 354 TULSA ESPNN USC ESPN BALTIMORE C MICHIGAN UTSA 395 MARSHALL 463 NEW ORLEANS 3 6:00 PM 2:30 PM 7:00 PM 4:05 PM 318 MIAMI OHIO CBSSN MIDDLE TENN OLD DOMINION SAN FRANCISCO TEMPLE ESPN CHARLOTTE 397 HAWAII 465 CAROLINA :00 PM 3:30 PM 7:00 PM 4:05 PM CONNECTICUT 358 SOUTHERN MISS S DIEGO ST CBSSN LOS ANGELES SAN JOSE ST 359 TCU TEXAS INDIANAPOLIS :15 PM 3:30 PM 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 4:25 PM BOISE ST ESPN BAYLOR FOX TEXAS TECH FS GREEN BAY 7 3 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER PITTSBURGH TEXAS A&M TENNESSEE 12:30 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 4:25 PM 362 MIAMI FLA ACC MISSISSIPPI ST SEC 470 SAN DIEGO NAVY 363 GEORGIA TECH 403 MEMPHIS DENVER :30 FL 12:30 PM TIME CHANGE 4:00 PM TIME CHANGE 8:30 PM NOTRE DAME CBS N CAROLINA ACC SMU ESPNN OAKLAND NBC 325 TEXAS ST 365 VANDERBILT 405 IOWA 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 7:30 PM 326 APPALACHIAN ST AUBURN ESPN PENN ST BTN 6 3 MONDAY, NOVEMBER BYU CBSSN GEORGIA OREGON ST 473 BUFFALO 328 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE 8:30 PM CINCINNATI KENTUCKY SEC 408 STANFORD SEATTLE ESPN AIR FORCE 369 FLORIDA ARIZONA NFL WEEK NINE BYES: :00 PM 3:30 PM 4:00 PM TIME CHANGE ARIZONA, CHICAGO, CINCINNATI, ARMY CBSSN ARKANSAS CBS 410 WASH ST PAC HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND, WASHINGTON page 14 A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONS 4 BEST BET 5 BEST BET OREGON TCU OHIO STATE NY JETS CHARGERS VIKINGS CINCINNATI Your purchase of the information in this publication is intended strictly for the private use of the subscriber and/or purchaser. The redistribution of any portion of this information, in any form, without the express written consent of Preferred Picks (or Playbook or Playbook.com ) is strictly prohibited and is subject to the laws of the jurisdictions involved COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL - NOVEMBER 1-7 Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the SportsOptions.com opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game. You have a PLAYBOOK Recommenation whenever our predicted margin of victory is 6 or more points off the opening line. Remember, opening lines are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a final play.