Preliminary Cost Analysis MARYLAND. Cost Sources Vehicle-level Costing Heuristics Applications Learning Curves Program-Level Analysis

Transcription

1 Cost Sources Vehicle-level Costing Heuristics Applications Learning Curves Program-Level Analysis 2003 David L. Akin - All rights reserved

2 Cost Analysis Direct Costs - directly related to designing, testing, building, and operating the system Indirect Costs - required to do business, but not directly associated with development or operations Management Profit Non-operational facilities Overhead

3 Direct Cost Breakdown Non-recurring costs - only incurred once in program, such as design Recurring costs - reoccur throughout the life of the program Per vehicle Per flight Per year

4 Nonrecurring Cost Sources Research Design Development Test and evaluation Facilities Tooling

5 Recurring Cost Sources Vehicle manufacturing Mission planning Pre-flight preparation and check-out Flight operations Post-flight inspection and refurbishment Range costs Consumables (e.g., propellants) Training

6 Refurbishment Cost associated with maintenance and upkeep on reusable vehicles between flights Refurbishment fraction f R - fraction of first unit production cost that is required for average post-flight refurbishment Airliner: ~0.001% Fighter jet: ~0.01% X-15: 3% Shuttle: 6-20% Major contributor to space flight costs

7 Vehicle-Level Cost Estimating Relations C ($M) = a [ m kg ] b i Spacecraft Type Nonrecurring a Nonrecurring b 1 st Unit Prod. a 1 st Unit Prod. b Launch Vehicle Stage Manned Spacecraft Unmanned Planetary Unmanned Earth Orbital Liquid Rocket Engine Scientific Instrument

8 Implications of CERs Launch Vehicles Nonrecurring $42K-$182K/kg inert mass 1st Unit $3600-$10.7K/kg inert mass Manned Spacecraft Nonrecurring $119K-$1.56M/kg inert mass 1st Unit $13K-$90K/kg inert mass

9 Costing Applied to Launch Vehicle Design Optimization Approach Minimize Gross Mass Minimize Inert Mass Minimize Nonrecurring Cost Single Stage to Orbit DV Distribution (m/sec) Gross Mass (kg) Inert Masses (kg) 134,800 2,937 10,780 13, ,000 2,066 11,123 13, ,000 1,666 11,762 13,428 NR Cost ($M99) ,400 18, kg payload, LOX/LH2 engines

10 The Learning Curve The effort (time, cost, etc.) to perform a test decreases with repetition Crawford formulation: doubling the production run results in consistent fractional reduction of effort 80% learning curve - 2nd unit costs 80% of 1st, 4th is 80% of 2nd, 8th is 80% of 4th C n = C 1 n p C n ª C 1 n p Average cost: 1 + p p = ( ) log(2) log C 2 C1

11 Cost and Learning Effects Total Program Payload Mass = 1,000,000 kg Nonrecurring Cost Recurring Cost Operations Costs Total Program Cost Payload Mass per Flight (kg)

12 Expendable/Reusable Trade Study Total Market to Orbit=1,000,000 kg Cost/kg of Payload ($) Expendables Reusables Payload Mass (kg)

13 Vehicle Inert Masses Project Diana Baseline LLO Case Boost Stage Descent Stage Ascent Stage TEI Stage 618 Crew Cabin Entry Systems Totals All masses in kg Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

14 Nonrecurring Costs Project Diana Baseline LLO Case Boost Stage Descent Stage Ascent Stage TEI Stage Crew Cabin Entry Systems Totals All costs in $M Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

15 Nonrecurring Cost Comparison Project Diana Nonrecurring Costs ($M) Entry Systems Crew Cabin TEI Stage Ascent Stage Descent Stage Boost Stage 0.0 Baseline Variation 2 Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

16 First Unit Production Costs Project Diana Baseline LLO Case Shuttle Launch Delta IVH Boost Stage Descent Stage Ascent Stage TEI Stage 11.9 Crew Cabin Totals All costs in $M Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

17 First Unit Cost Comparison Project Diana First Unit Recurring Costs ($M) Entry Systems Crew Cabin TEI Stage Ascent Stage Descent Stage Boost Stage Baseline LLO Case Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

18 Project Diana Mission Models Project Diana Single Mission Model One all-up lunar flight Single crew cabin, ascent/descent stages Three boost stages, four launch vehicles Apollo Comparison Model One orbital test flight (crew module, ascent/descent stages) One high orbital mission (above + one boost stage) One lunar orbital rehearsal mission Seven lunar landing missions Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

19 Single Mission Model Cost Summary Project Diana Baseline Case Nonrecurring First Unit Recurring Number Cost ($M) Cost ($M) Cost ($M) Totals Shuttle Launch Delta IVH Boost Stages Descent Stage Ascent Stage TEI Stage Crew Cabin Totals Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

20 Production for Apollo Case Project Diana Earth High Lunar Lunar Orbit Orbit Orbit Landing Totals Shuttle Launch Delta IVH Boost Stages Descent Stage Ascent Stage TEI Stage Crew Cabin Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

21 Apollo Mission Model Cost Summary Project Diana Baseline Case Nonrecurring First Unit Recurring Number Cost ($M) Cost ($M) Cost ($M) Totals Shuttle Launch Delta IVH Boost Stages Descent Stage Ascent Stage TEI Stage Crew Cabin Totals Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

22 Apollo Model Cost Comparisons Project Diana Total Program Cost ($M) Entry Systems Crew Cabin TEI Stage Ascent Stage Descent Stage Boost Stages Launch Vehicles 0 Baseline LLO Case Space Systems Laboratory University of Maryland

23 Web-Based Costing References NASA Cost Estimation Web Site Vehicle-Level Costing Models Inflation Adjustment Learning Curves