Human Responses to Coral Reef Loss

Transcription

1 Human Responses to Coral Reef Loss Ove Hoegh-Guldberg: Global Change Ins.tute, Univ of Queensland Linwood Pendleton: WWF and European Ins.tute for Marine Studies with research assistance from Anne Kaup Jürgen Freund / WWF

2 1. Coral reefs as key global resources OUTLINE 2. Vulnerability of coral reefs to global change 3. Key ques.ons at the heart of the review 4. Reef frameworks, ecosystem services, and the vulnerability of coastal people 5. Key sectors: Economic responses, adapta.on, and coping 6. Regional case studies 7. Discussion and conclusions

3 Through the lens of wonder

4 Or through the lens of u.lity GLOBAL THREATS CYCLONES structural damage rugosity SHORELINE PROTECTION (Against waves, surge and sea level rise) LIVES AND PROPERTY diversity SEA TEMPERATURE OCEAN ACIDIFICATION bleaching growth bioerosion, dissolution LOCAL STRESSORS recruitment, growth CORAL REEF habitat TOURISM AND RECREATION BUSINESSES FISHERIES LIVELIHOOD AND NUTRITION Detail in Hoegh-Guldberg, Pendleton and Kaup (2017)

5 Both wonder and u.lity are threatened Key quescon: What is the economic impact of the reduccon in reef services? GLOBAL THREATS CYCLONES SEA TEMPERATURE OCEAN ACIDIFICATION structural damage bleaching growth bioerosion, dissolution LOCAL STRESSORS recruitment, growth CORAL REEF rugosity diversity habitat SHORELINE PROTECTION (Against waves, surge and sea level rise) TOURISM AND RECREATION LIVES AND PROPERTY BUSINESSES FISHERIES LIVELIHOOD AND NUTRITION Detail in Hoegh-Guldberg, Pendleton and Kaup (2017)

6 Can we calculate the value of coral reef services in economic terms ($)?

7 Economic evalua=on Market Based: Derived asset value looking at quan.ty of a resource priced at its current market value Cesar et al 2003 Value Based: Implied asset value ascertained by iden.fying annual value genera.on of the asset, and conduc.ng a Net Present Value (NPV) of future years

8 Economic value of the Ocean? $24 Trillion (asset) $2.4 Trillion (annual dividend) Boston Consul.ng Group

9 If the Ocean were a country, it would be the seventh largest economy in the world. ocean.panda.org

10 Under-performing asset (<< $24 Trillion) Total Coral reefs are a trillion dollar asset. Asset If Degrada.on we don t look acer the asset, then the annual dividends decrease? Reduced annual dividend Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2015)

11 Accuracy? Lots of gaps and unmeasurable services Regula.on of local climate Healthy communi.es Atmospheric gas regula.on Produc.on of beach sands Valuing the invaluable (es.mates are a min?) Provision of clear coastal barriers Hoegh-Guldberg et al (2015)

12 However, does the loss of 50% of coral reef resources mean that dependent people are 50% less well off? The parable of the dumb farmer

13 Complex. What if we select a simpler response chain?

14 Loss of reef structure Ocean warming and acidifica.on (and non-climate stresses) Loss of coral and degrada.on of carbonate budget Loss of habitat and 3-D structure (flahening of coral reefs) Loss of fisheries and coastal protec.on Economic losses and reduced livelihoods

15 Key linkage: Living coral cover and coastal fisheries 1-9 million species associated with coral reefs: (e.g. Reaka-Kudla and Wilson 1997). Many are important to fisheries (recruitment preferences, prey availability and predator avoidance). Coker et al 2012; Greenfield 2003; Darling et al. 2017; Richardson et al. 2017) Loss of coral dominated communi.es is likely to be associated with, conserva.vely, a 30-50% decline in produc.vity and hence associated fisheries (Graham 2015). Are we safe to say that the 50% decline in coral reefs per year has been accompanied by a 30% decline in fisheries produc>vity (roughly 2% coral per year and 1% fish per year). Also: how much lag >me is there between loss of coral and reduc>on in fisheries? Are there >pping points?

16 3D structure of reefs and coastal protection Between 60 million (Pendleton, Comte, et al. 2016) and 200 million (Ferrario et al. 2014) people depend on coral reefs for physical protec.on from storm surge and waves. Coral reefs protect property, provide a natural alterna.ve to hard armouring of shorelines, and can help to save lives (World Bank 2016) Depth of reef crest Rugosity of D reef 97% dissipa.on of wave energy Is there a rela.onship between changing condi.ons and the loss of these func.ons.

17 Global map showing selected net carbonate budgets for coral reefs kg CaCO 3 m -2 year -1 From Kennedy et al Figure S1.

18 A. Loss of surface roughness and bulk carbonate B. Numerous interac.ng factors Kennedy et al. (2013)

19 Economic losses and reduced livelihoods? How long does the loss of structure take, and is it the same everywhere? How much are fisheries dependent on carbonate structures how much can coral reef fisheries be replaced by noncoral reef fisheries? Alterna.ve livelihoods?

20 Future: Loss of carbonate structures by 2050 Key issue: Timing of Reef Loss Almost certainly moving into general global condi.ons where reefs will not be dominated by corals. Scalable adapta.on op.ons? Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007)

21 All this aside, what economic impact would there be if the dumb farmer reigned supreme?

22 Fig 6. Regional dependences and average CO2-related threats Pendleton, Comte et al (plosone) Pendleton L, Comte A, Langdon C, Ekstrom JA, Cooley SR, et al. (2016) Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO2 World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?. PLOS ONE 11(11): e

23 Revenues (2005) from Reef Fish Harvest (million US$) current output 80% of current output 50% of current output 20% of current output

24 Fisher Livelihoods (2005) from Coral Reef Fishing Number of fishers (thousands) current output 80% of current output 50% of current output 20% of current output

25 Low Eleva=on Popula=on That Depends on Coral Reefs for Shoreline Protec=on People (million) < 10 m above sea level and 3 km from a coral reef (2007) From: Pendleton et al Mul>ple Stressors and Ecological Complexity Require a New Approach to Coral Reef Research.

26 10 jurisdic=ons with highest total coral reef tourism expenditures From: Spalding, Mark et al Tourism Expenditure Values Type of Tourism Egypt Egypt Indonesia Indonesia Mexico Mexico Thailand Australia China Philippines USA (Hawaii) Japan On-reef tourism value (million US$ per year) Reef-adjacent tourism value (million US$ per year) Thailand Australia China Philippines USA (Hawaii) Japan Propor.on of reef-coast tourism assigned as on-reef Propor.on of tourism which is coastal, nonurban USA (Florida) USA (Florida) US$ million (2013) Percent of Total Tourism

27 Three Regional Case Studies

28 From a conserva>on perspec>ve, simply valuing the inevitable loss of corals is akin to coun>ng deck chairs on the Titanic. What are we to make of these values? If all else is held equal, are current economic measures a good proxy for the value of reef loss? Don t assume the dumb farmer.

29 Reef Fisheries

30 The Current Value of Fisheries Gross Revenues EsCmated Annual Commercial Gross Revenue from Reef Fisheries Great Barrier Reef US$407 million (2005) Coral Triangle Region US$1.1 billion (2005) US$3 billion (2007) The Maldives US$1 million (2005) US$5.6 million Annual Commercial Gross OperaCng Surplus (Reef & Non-Reef Fisheries) Annual GOS GBR RecreaConal Fisheries 10% Annual Consumer Surplus GBR RecreaConal Fisheries Great Barrier Reef AU$41 million (2009) AU$8.6 million (2009) AU$70 million (2009)

31 Reef Fisheries As a response to coral loss, fishers who depend on reef fisheries may: sell their boats, pursue other economic ac.vi.es spend more.me/money searching for fish focus more on mangrove areas or seagrass meadows Increased costs passed on to the consumer or people buy subs.tutes: smaller, different fish that is inferior in taste, nutri.on or cultural value imported fish other types of protein Impact on recrea.onal fishing depends largely on whether the experience of the catch is preferred over catch. Failure to account for: costs, subsidies, changes in fisher behavior, subs.tutes è overes.mates lost value social/cultural aspects è underes.mates of lost value.

32 the human and economic loss as a result of coral loss depends crucially on the >ming and rate of coral loss.

33 Shoreline Protec>on (2009)

34 The Current Value of Coastal Protec>on Region Great Barrier Reef EsCmated Value of Shoreline ProtecCon AU$438 million/yr (2009) - AU$5.3 billion/year (2009) reef length Coral Triangle Region EsCmated Value of Shoreline ProtecCon Indonesia Philippines Lingayen Gulf, PH Solomon Islands US$387 million/yr (2010) (net benefit) US$400 million/yr (2010) (net benefit) US$31.5 million (for 37 k of reef) US$87,000-$353,000/yr Region The Maldives EsCmated Value of Shoreline ProtecCon US$1.6 billion to US$2.7 billion

35 Shoreline Protec>on The economic impact of coral loss in rela.on to shoreline protec.on is dependent on a variety of factors: Current property value is an upper-bound of the economic impact due to loss of coral cover. Property values are likely to account for some risk of increased erosion, and people will adjust over.me. Defensive expenditures will be mixed. In some cases, no defensive costs will be incurred because people will retreat. The level of preparedness may improve acer experiences of catastrophic storm damage.

36 Coral Reef Tourism

37 The Current Value of Reef-Related Tourism & Recrea>on Annual Reefrelated Tourism Expenditures Annual GOS from Coral Site Visitors (Producer Surplus) Annual Consumer Surplus from Tourism Great Barrier Reef $473 million on-reef expenditure (2013) (Spalding et al. 2017) AU$480 million reef-related tourism expenditures (2012) (Deliohe 2013) AU$202 million coral site visitors (2009) 21% AU$102 million visitors mo.vated by reef s existence (2009) (Oxford Economics 2009) AU$474 million for reef-mocvated tourism (2009) (Oxford Economics 2009)

38 Costs, benefits, and human responses: Leakage Coral Reef Tourism Dive shops and tourism and live-a-board opera.ons may create loca.ons that don t rely on coral ecosystems (wreck diving, sculpture parks), or simply relocate (costs of reloca.ng must be considered). Local restaurants, taxi drivers and similar businesses may switch to catering to non-reef tourist ac.vi.es, or relocate. Iconic (Great Barrier Reef, Hanauma Bay State Park) may suffer most. The value of local recrea.on, including social and cultural value, might be significant. Tourists response to coral loss: con.nue visi.ng the same des.na.on but par.cipate in other ac.vi.es choose another reef des.na.on - shicing tourism revenues

39 1) Overes.mate local value of dependence and cost of coral loss 2) Underes.mate cultural and social values and cost 3) Op.ons maher Diversifica.on reduces impact, creates resilience/ stability 4) Timing mahers 5) Don t collect data to know how people respond Jürgen Freund / WWF Pendleton &Edwards Biodiversity. Measuring the Human So What of Large-Scale Coral Reef Loss Jürgen Freund / WWF