The Edge Issue II Premier League Tips 2016/17

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Barry Johnston
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1 The Edge Issue II Premier League Tips 2016/17 In your exclusive Premier League tips report for the 2016/17 season: 50/1 Top Scorer value A 14/1 shot in the Premier League Handicap market 7/2 Tottenham the pick to be Top London Club The Premier League kicks on Saturday, so now s the time to snap up some more ante post value. Let s get stuck straight in, with a tasty looking 50/1 shot Mane the man at 50/1 Football, Premier League 2016/17 Top Goalscorer The last time we had a genuine outsider winning the Golden Boot was way back in 1999/2000 when Kevin Phillips landed a big gamble for ISIRIS. It was all a bit much really, having Kevin Booth singing there s only one Kevin Phillips down the phone during the embers of that season, but fair play to them, it was a tidy way to land a 66/1 winner Season Player Nationality Club Goals Games Kevin Phillips England Sunderland 30 36

2 As the table below suggest, it has been one-way traffic since with the big clubs dominating the Golden Boot table here s the last 13 winners and the books have certainly been cleaning up with the also rans Season Player Nationality Club Goals Games Thierry Henry France Arsenal Thierry Henry France Arsenal Didier Drogba Ivory Coast Chelsea Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal Manchester United Nicolas Anelka France Chelsea Didier Drogba Ivory Coast Chelsea Carlos Tevez Argentina Manchester City Dimitar Berbatov Bulgaria Manchester United Robin van Persie Netherlands Arsenal Robin van Persie Netherlands Manchester United Luis Suárez Uruguay Liverpool Sergio Agüero Argentina Manchester City Harry Kane England Tottenham Hotspur Not a single winner that plays for a team outside the Top 6 clubs with only Vardy coming close to breaking that run last season but that was a Black Swan, and I m not keen on trudging around in the reeds waiting for one of those to sail by again. Two clubs that I don t fancy to house the 2016/17 Golden Boot winner are Man Utd or Chelsea both clubs are currently unsettled in the goal scorer department and neither manager makes that much appeal when it comes down to fielding a side that is going have a focal point in the scoring duties department. Arsenal were going to be my club to home in on, but there is still an unsettled nature down at the Emirates which is a big pity as they could easily produce a 25+ goal player this term given how fragile they could be at the back. The Man City line will be led by Sergio Aguero again but I cannot back a player that is prone to injury at just 7/2 there could be a little unrest also during the early weeks of Pep at the helm and whilst he would be my market favourite, he is hard to back at the price. Harry Kane has plenty going for him we ve only had 6 back to back Golden Boot winners since the start of the Premier League, but if anyone can, Kane can. His numbers last year were genuine he didn t really overachieve and is capable of sustaining that level this season also. Vincent Janssen s arrival is a bit of a blow though and one that I fancy to erode very slightly into Kane s tally. 9/1 is therefore not big enough. Romelu Lukaku is an interesting runner, but it s still not clear where he will be playing this season and for that reason I could not take just 12/1 especially if he goes to Chelsea. With the top runners making little if any appeal at the available price, I m going to look a little further down the list and Liverpool s 30m purchase Sadio Mane feels a massive price at 50/1 with four each way places available.

Last season Mane ended up with 11 goals from his 30 starts a county mile behind the winner, but he was playing for a club that were modest in their attacking approach with 59 goals for the season one

3 Last season Mane ended up with 11 goals from his 30 starts a county mile behind the winner, but he was playing for a club that were modest in their attacking approach with 59 goals for the season one of the lower tallies of the Top 10 teams. I can see why Klopp likes the player so much he s quick, one of the most unselfish players I have ever seen in modern day football and most importantly of all, he will fit into the Klopp scheme really well he is super fit and will be one of the quickest players in the side this season. In a Klopp set up, this guy could be anything (as we saw against Barca) and at such a big price, the Senegalese hitman looks worth a small each way bet. Sadio Mane Top Premier League Goalscorer 50/1 (51.00) with Boylesports, Betfred & Winner. Betting Edge Tip: 14/1 Middlesbrough the value in Season Handicap market Football, Premier League 2016/17 Premier League Season Handicap As has been the case for a few years now, the bookmakers have priced up a range of handicapping tactics for the 2016/17 season. Whether they are aware of this is of course is another matter but the simple bottom line is that some firms are loading the spread whilst others are not. Coral are in the passive corner again but not as low as they have been in the past. Back in 2013/14 they were a massive 70 points lower than the highest handicap total,

4 compared to the current season where they are just 30 or so points lower than the highest handicap total. The compiler at Bet Victor certainly hasn t changed company in that time he s top of the shop again this season with a spread total of 514 points so my message is the same as it always has been, if you fancy the favs - especially prospective backers of Man United, Man City or Chelsea then steer clear of BV. This is good compiling in my opinion as it drags in the squares with the big spreads making appeal but tunnel vision punters fail to realise that a whole host of other teams are top handicap as well so the chances of getting trumped are significant. Ladbrokes have chalked up with the lowest spread total which makes them the first port of call for all bets especially those with the lower spreads. A total handicap of just 465 points is near on 50 points lower than Bet Victor making them the standout bookmaker this season in the low spread department. Below is a record of how all the firms bet I ve also included the spread firms as a guide this number is a theoretical one that has been generated from the midpoints of their Premier League points spreads so for example Spreadex have the Man City midpoint at 76 and the Leicester midpoint at 55 so the inferred handicap would be 21. For reference, here are the main firms along with Sporting Index and Spreadex Bet365 Skybet Bet Victor Paddy Betway Lads Hills BetFred Coral SPIN SpreadEx Arsenal Bournemouth Burnley Chelsea Crystal Palace Everton Hull Liverpool Man Utd Manchester City Middlesbrough Southampton Stoke Sunderland Swansea Watford West Brom Leicester Tottenham West Ham As far as my selection for the 2016/17 season is concerned, I m going to side with a club that I fancy to be very competitive this term and that s Middlesbrough who are getting an ok 40 points with William Hill, 42 points with Betway or 41 points with Skybet. Boro s compact, organised and disciplined system bodes well for the forthcoming season. This is exactly the kind of system that can be effective in the Premier League, a little like we saw with Leicester last season and whilst I m not expecting that level of achievement, I am expecting a solid 45 points from Boro this season. And what a treat the Premier League will be we have to remember that this Boro side has spent years facing up to negative defences. Even more so last term where they quickly inherited a classy reputation that resulted in the opposition putting plenty of men behind the ball

This coming season however, Aitor Karanka s side will face plenty of ambitious teams that will have marked the visit (or trip for that matter) of Boro as a 3 point game.

5 This coming season however, Aitor Karanka s side will face plenty of ambitious teams that will have marked the visit (or trip for that matter) of Boro as a 3 point game. This is a luxury for a side that are more than capable of playing a counter-attacking style and whilst they will suffer their fair share of losses they will also shock a few sides also. Karanka learned a lot at Real Madrid in a very short period of time when Mourinho s understudy and his style of play is clearly reflecting that experience and with a little more room for manoeuvre in 2016/17, I m happy to take the Teesiders with a 40 point or more start with the lower handicap firms. Middlesbrough +41 pts Handicap 14/1 (15.00) at Skybet, +40 pts 15/1 (16.00) with William Hill or +42 pts 12/1 (13.00) with Betway. Betting Edge Tip: Kelly Staking I was speaking to the MD of Oxfordshire Press the other day about staking, and how I use Kelly staking to work out the stakes that I advise Having more on a 9/1 shot (Tottenham for example) than I had on Lewis Hamilton (a 5/6 chance) looks strange, but the reasons for this is that my stake levels are always governed by the price I m getting compared to the price I make the said selection. This month I want to discuss how this works enabling you to not only understand the theory behind Kelly but also, with the benefit of the formulae, how you can stake your bets using a staking formula that uses the same percentage of bank foundation. The actual percentage of bank staked all depends on the value of the selection If you make a selection 2/1 and the books are offering 9/4 then you will be having a bet if the books are 5/2 then you will be having a bigger bet. This staking method is used by many of the world s successful punters to aid them in staking their bets with a consistent formula that never deviates from the value found in

6 a selection and if you automate it using a program like Excel, you can make the calculations in just a few seconds. The formula for Kelly is as follows: Stake = ((Odds 1) x Probability (1 Probability)) / (Odds 1) x Bank Where the odds are the actual odds obtained in a decimal format, the probability is the probability of the selection as a percentage and the bank is your current betting bank. Let s take a look at Kelly in action with an example o We bet a selection at odds of 2.75 my winning probability for the selection is 40% - the bank is The calculation would therefore be ((2.75 1) x 40% - (1 40%)) / (2.75 1) x 1000 And when multiplied by the bank of 1000 gives a stake of As you can see, Kelly is quite an aggressive plan which really attacks the prices on offer. Most people that use Kelly (including myself) use what s called a percent of Kelly plan where we stake a fraction of the advised stake I use a quarter-kelly which literally results in staking a quarter of the advised stake total so for the above bet I would have staked on the selection. There are many online Kelly Calculators here is one such calculator that uses the parameters that we have used above. There is no calculating to do here you simply enter your bank, the actual odds, your probability for the selection and finally... the Kelly Type that you want either 1 (for full Kelly) 1/2, or the one that I use 1/4. After clicking Calculate, the results are displayed below the input section giving you a summary of your betting position

As you can see, I ve already entered the example I used earlier into the calculator the only difference being, my own calculations do not round down on the 2 nd decimal place.

7 As you can see, I ve already entered the example I used earlier into the calculator the only difference being, my own calculations do not round down on the 2 nd decimal place. That s all for today, but I ll be going into even more detail about the Kelly staking plan in the next issue of The Edge which will be out in September. Spotlight on Top London Club Football, Premier League 2016/17 Top London Club We ran through how to price these markets up last month. The technique works best with solid markets and of course, selections that are genuine market runners. For that reason, the Top London Club market is one of the best markets for our attention. Featuring three selections that are serious title contenders, this grouped market is perfect for extracting an accurate set of prices that reflect the chances of the teams in a mini league and the results are quite interesting Here s the set of master prices that we ll be using to generate a Top London Club market that is bet to 100%. Remember these prices are the rock solid Outright Winner offerings on Betfair Chelsea 7.2 Arsenal 7.6 Tottenham 10.5 West Ham 100 Crystal Palace 600 Now we repeat the calculations discussed in Issue 1 of the Edge firstly, finding how much each price takes out of a 100% book We do this by dividing 100 by each price Chelsea Arsenal Tottenham 9.52 West Ham 1 Crystal Palace 0.17

8 Which adds up to (which is the percentage chance of a London Club winning the Premier League this season by the way so, around a 13/8 chance). The final step is to calculate just how much of this 37.74% each team takes up. So divided by each of the above primary percentages which equals; Odds Chelsea /13.89 = 2.71 Arsenal /13.16 = 2.86 Tottenham /9.52 = 3.96 West Ham /1 = Crystal Palace /0.17 = This market is based on the prices available right now on Betfair that has seen over 1.7 million matched so far - so in other words, a pretty solid book. These are the best prices available in the village right now (our true price in brackets): Chelsea (2.71) 2.87 Arsenal (2.86) 2.80 Tottenham (3.96) 4.5 West Ham (37.74) 26.0 Crystal Palace (222.0) It s surprising to see a big difference in the market place - Ladbrokes really fancy Chelsea and are laying a stunningly out of line 5/4 about them winning the Top London Club market. That s an unbelievable price given they are just 1/2 a point shorter about Chelsea winning the league (11/2) compared to Arsenal (6/1). To make Chelsea a 5/4 chance would mean they would have to be 4/1 Chelsea outright and a little bigger Arsenal too Simply bad bookmaking from the Magic Sign there it s fine to have opinions, but they have to make sense when placed alongside other markets. My opinion on Chelsea has not changed they are too short for the title and they are laughably short for the Top London Club market the 2.76 that we make them can be beaten, but not by enough to make them a bet at this stage. Arsenal have drifted on Betfair since the market opened and at 9/5 they look the right price. For me the club is still short a player or two and injuries to Per Mertesacker and most recently, Gabriel, bode badly for a club that was already below par defensively. Tottenham jump off the page again though at 7/2 as we have already seen, mathematically speaking the 7/2 is a mile away from where Ladbrokes should be (their Outright prices do not infer this disparity either they are fractionally over 3/1 Tottenham using their prices) and at this stage of the season, there is no way that either Chelsea or Arsenal deserve to be as short they are with the Harrow based firm. We ve already had an investment on Spurs in the Outright market, but I m happy to take a slice of this price too in a market that omits both of the Manchester clubs.

9 Tottenham to be Top London Club 7/2 (4.50) at Ladbrokes, 11/4 (3.75) with William Hill & Betfair. Betting Edge Tip: For our final bet, we re off to Spain were it looks like Sporting Gijon will be in for a long hard season Going Going Gijon Football, La Liga 2016/17 Relegation If Sporting Gijon fans thought last season was bad, then they had better belt themselves in for their trip through 2016/17. It ll be a rocky ride and one that will see them spend most if not all of their journey embroiled in yet another relegation battle. This is a typical on the edge club who, since the mid-nineties, have flirted between the Segunda and Primera divisions of the Spanish football league and I m expecting the pattern to continue in 2016/17. Between 1994/95 and 1996/97, Sporting put on a period of form very similar to that of their current data period they managed to survive the step up from Segunda last term, it was a grim existence and one saw Sporting just survive the drop. La Liga Defensive Stats 2015/16 Team Shots Against Tackles Made Interceptions pfouls pg Offsides pg Sevilla Sporting Gijon Real Betis Valencia Levante Espanyol Las Palmas Getafe but that

10 Abelardo Fernandez is a great example of a manager that is struggling with a lack of weapons - losing Luis Hernández to Leicester City, Jony to Malaga and loan returns; Alen Halilovic and Antonio Sanabria back to Barca and Roma respectively, is a massive blow for Fernandez. He was struggling to make ends meet with these fundamental squad members available for selection and their departure will be felt hard in the changing room. And it s that latter aspect that will be the hardest to overcome they looked a sorry sight last season for long periods and unless the squad really grits their teeth and gets stuck in, they look a side that is getting close to a pick em whether they survive or not. The schedule has done them no favours also hitting the ground running is going to be tough given their new squad La Liga Offensive stats 2015/16 members will need time to bed in, Team Shots For Shots OT Dribbles Fouled Villarreal and with this in mind, taking on two Sporting Gijon Primera new boys (namely Alaves Espanyol and Leganes) early doors (second Real Betis Valencia third matches of the season) is going Eibar to be a tough assignment. Las Palmas Therefore, taking the bet now is essential I don t want a peek at how bad it is, even if they get through that period with a few points the situation is still grim and if they draw a blank they will be odds on for the drop. Offers of 6/4 and 13/8 make plenty of appeal Sporting Gijon to be Relegated 13/8 (2.63) with Bet365 & Skybet, 6/4 (2.50) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 32 Red, 10 Bet & 188 Bet. Betting Edge Tip:

11 Coming soon... The Edge Issue III In Issue III of The Edge I will be taking an in-depth look at the new NFL season, including a look at the Super Bowl winner market, Divisional Winners and Regular Season Records. Best wishes, Betting Edge

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