MNI FX Technical Analysis Mail 27 July 2018

Transcription

1 MNI FX Technical Analysis Mail 27 July 2018 Contents US 10-YR YIELD: Initial Focus On EURO-DOLLAR: Topside Hesitation Takes Its Toll 3 CABLE: $ Support Key Today 4 DOLLAR-YEN: Bears Need Close Below EURO-YEN: Flirting With 55-DMA 6 EURO-STERLING: Gbp Support Key Today 7 AUSSIE: $ Resistance Key This Week 8 US DOLLAR-INDEX: Resistance Key Today 9 SPOT GOLD: Bulls Need Close Above $ NYMEX WTI: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA 11

2 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 2 US 10-YR YIELD: Initial Focus On *RES 4: High May 18 *RES 3: High May 21 *RES 2: Low May 22 *RES 1: High May 24 *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: Hourly resistance July 26 now support *SUP 2: Low July 26 *SUP 3: DMA *SUP 4: Hourly resistance July 23 now support The 55-DMA confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce from ahead of this level Wednesday reconfirming bullish focus on Bulls need a close above to confirm initial focus on where 2018 highs are noted. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below to shift initial focus back to

3 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 3 EURO-DOLLAR: Topside Hesitation Takes Its Toll *RES 4: $ High June 11 *RES 3: $ High July 9 *RES 2: $ Hourly resistance July 9 *RES 1: $ Hourly resistance July 26 *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: $ Hourly support July 20 *SUP 2: $ Bollinger band base *SUP 3: $ Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low *SUP 4: $ Low May 29 The $ resistance remains key with the pair remaining capped on approach again Thursday. Bulls need a close above $ to confirm traction above the 55-DMA ($1.1691), easing of bearish pressure, and shifting initial focus to $ Key MAs are noted $ with bulls needing a close above $ to confirm breaks and initially target $ Bears now need a close below $ to add weight to the case for a retest of 2018 lows.

4 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 4 CABLE: $ Support Key Today *RES 4: $ DMA *RES 3: $ High July 26 *RES 2: $ Hourly support July 26 now resistance *RES 1: $ Hourly resistance July 26 *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: $ Low July 24 *SUP 2: $ Hourly resistance July 20 now support *SUP 3: $ Low July 20 *SUP 4: $ Low July 19 Failure to gain traction above the 21-DMA ($1.3174) has seen cable sold off once more with immediate focus back on the $ support region. Bears now look for a close below $ to confirm initial focus on retests of 2018 lows. Overall bears target $ while $ caps. Bulls now need a close above $ to ease bearish pressure.

5 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 5 DOLLAR-YEN: Bears Need Close Below *RES 4: WMA *RES 3: Low July 18 now resistance *RES 2: Hourly resistance July 20 *RES 1: High July 23 *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: DMA *SUP 2: DMA *SUP 3: Low June 28 *SUP 4: Low June 25 The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.42) and daily bull channel base off 2018 lows continues to lack follow through with the pair again bouncing from ahead of the 55-DMA. Bears now need a close below Y to confirm breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs and pressure Y where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls look for a close above Y to gain breathing room and above Y to return focus to Y where the 200-WMA is found.

6 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 6 EURO-YEN: Flirting With 55-DMA *RES 4: High July 20 *RES 3: Hourly resistance July 23 *RES 2: Hourly resistance July 26a *RES 1: Hourly resistance July 26 *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: Bollinger band base *SUP 2: Low July 2 *SUP 3: Hourly resistance June 29 now support *SUP 4: Low June 21 Losses have defined the week so far with the pair currently flirting with the 55-DMA (Y129.26) as it trades below the bull channel base (Y129.47) off May lows. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus back to Y and hint at a move back to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above Y to gain breathing room and above Y to shift focus back to the 200-DMA. Daily studies approaching O/S and the Bollinger base are key concerns for bears.

7 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 7 EURO-STERLING: Gbp Support Key Today *RES 4: Gbp High Mar 7 *RES 3: Gbp Hourly resistance July 20 *RES 2: Gbp High July 24 *RES 1: Gbp Low July 23 now resistance *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: Gbp DMA *SUP 2: Gbp Low July 26 *SUP 3: Gbp Hourly support July 16 *SUP 4: Gbp DMA The break of the 21-DMA has so far lacked follow through with bears now needing a close below Gbp to shift focus to Gbp where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are located. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are currently seen weighing. Bulls now need a close above Gbp to gain breathing room and above Gbp to return pressure to the 2018 high.

8 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 8 AUSSIE: $ Resistance Key This Week *RES 4: $ Low June 13 now resistance *RES 3: $ High July 10 *RES 2: $ DMA *RES 1: $ Hourly resistance July 26 *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: $ Low July 24 *SUP 2: $ Bollinger band base *SUP 3: $ Low July 2 *SUP 4: $ Low Jan Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $ resistance region. Bulls still need a close above $ to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($0.7470) and hint at a move back to $ where 100 ($0.7558) & 200 ($0.7664) DMAs are located with above $ confirming. While $ caps bears retain initial focus on retests of 2018 lows.

9 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 9 US DOLLAR-INDEX: Resistance Key Today *RES 4: High July 19 *RES 3: WMA *RES 2: High July 20 *RES 1: Low July 19 now resistance *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: Hourly support July 26 *SUP 2: Hourly resistance July 25 now support *SUP 3: Low July 26 *SUP 4: Low July 9 Pressure on the 55-DMA (94.311) has failed to produce a close below with bulls taking comfort in the bounce Thursday. Bulls continue to look for a close above to gain breathing room and above the 100-WMA (95.521) to target Bears now need a close below to confirm a break of the 55- DMA and hint at a move back to with below to confirm.

10 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 10 SPOT GOLD: Bulls Need Close Above $ *RES 4: $ Low July 10 now resistance *RES 3: $ DMA *RES 2: $ Low July 13 now resistance *RES 1: $ WMA *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: $ Low July 24 *SUP 2: $ Low July 19 *SUP 3: $ Monthly low July *SUP 4: $ Monthly Low Mar Bears took comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to start the new week although failure to trouble 2018 lows is less than ideal with daily studies correcting from O/S. Bulls still need a close above $ to gain breathing room and above $ to return initial focus to $ where the 100- WMA is noted. Bears initially remain focused on $ while $ caps.

11 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 11 NYMEX WTI: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA *RES 4: $ Low July 10 now resistance *RES 3: $ Low July 9 now resistance *RES 2: $ High July 13 *RES 1: $ DMA *PRICE: 0430GMT *SUP 1: $ Hourly support July 26 *SUP 2: $ Low July 26 *SUP 3: $ Low July 25 *SUP 4: $ Hourly support July 19 Bulls took comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the $65.89 support with pressure returning to the 21-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to $ While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the $ supports with a close below $68.92 needed to buy bears breathing room.