New Growth Segments for the Air Cargo Industry

Transcription

1 Page 1 New Growth Segments for the Air Cargo Industry 4 th Air Cargo Economics Conference Prague, April 22-23, 2004

2 Page 2 Assumptions Primary commodity sectors and their growth Perishables: are they really growing? High tech: recovery after the boom? Fashion goods: susceptible to world economics? Pharmaceuticals: aging society affecting air trade? Automotive: Asia gaining ground on USA? Summary & Conclusions

3 Page 3 Specialties strong growth until 2000, then declining Worldwide industry sector development from in air tons Air Weight Tons (Kg 000s) 10,000,00 8,000,00 6,000,00 Automotive High Tech Healthcare FMCG Specialties Oil and Gas 4,000,00 2,000,

4 Page 4 Machinery showing largest fluctuations, while perishables and chemicals are relatively stable Key Specialties air trade from in tons Air Weight Tons (Kg 000s) 2,800,00 2,400,00 2,000,00 1,600,00 Agricultural Perishables Chemicals Machinery Perishables 1,200,00 800,00 400,

5 Page 5 US Perishable trade only grew 2% on average annually US perishable air imports from in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 600,00 - Foods, Fresh - Perishable Non-Foods Other 500,00 400,00 300,00 200,00 100,

6 Page 6 and Europe perishable imports will not reach 2002 levels European air imports of perishable goods from January 2000 until October 2003 in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg 000's) 100, ,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

7 Page 7 Kenya is the leading flower importer into Europe European imports of cut flowers from January 2000 until October 2003 Air Weight, metric tons (Kg 000's) 50,00 40,00 Kenya Zimbabwe Colombia Ecuador Israel 30,00 20,00 10,

8 Page 8 Chilean Salmon showing exponential growth US fresh fish air imports from in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 120,00 100,00 80, Salmon, Fresh Tuna, Fresh Fish, Other, Fresh Other 60,00 40,00 20,

9 Page 9 and so are papaya s from Brazil Brazil air export of papaya s to the world from Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 28,00 24, Papaya, Fresh 20,00 16,00 12,00 8,00 4,

10 Page 10 Colombia flower exports slipping to the US US air imports of fresh cut flowers from South America for Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 140,00 Colombia Ecuador Other 120,00 100,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,

11 Page 11 Fashion air trade susceptible to economic conditions US air imports of fashion goods from Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 700,00 - Clothing & Accessories - Footwear 600,00 500,00 400,00 300,00 200,00 100,

12 Page 12 while European import recovery is driven by China Europe air imports of fashion goods from key countries from January 2000 October 2003 Air Weight, metric tons (Kg 000's) 100,00 China Hong Kong Turkey Bangladesh India Pakistan 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,

13 Page 13 China and Hong Kong are the fashion producers of the world China and Hong Kong air exports of clothing and accessories to key areas from Air Weight, by Reporter (Kgs x 1000) 200,00 Americas Asia Pacific Europe Other 160,00 120,00 80,00 40,

14 Page 14 Healthcare industry sub sectors show strong and stable growth Healthcare Worldwide air trade from Air Weight Tons (Kg 000s) 1,000,00 Pharmaceuticals Medical Equipment Personal Care 800,00 600,00 400,00 200,

15 Page 15 Healthcare air products increase in value per kg Air trade (in tons) and value ($ 000s) for health care from Healthcare Air Weight Tons (Kg 000s) 1,000,00 Air Value US$ 000s 200,000,00 800,00 160,000,00 600,00 120,000,00 400,00 80,000,00 200,00 40,000,

16 Page 16 After the high tech boom, slow recovery expected High Tech air trade worldwide from Air Weight Tons (Kg 000s) 4,000,00 3,500,00 Computer and Peripherals CMO (Office Machinery) Electronics Telecom 3,000,00 2,500,00 2,000,00 1,500,00 1,000,00 500,

17 Page 17 After the telecom boom, the average value per kg drops slightly Air trade (in tons) and value ($ 000s) for telecom from Telecom Air Weight Tons (Kg 000s) 700,00 Air Value US$ 000s 140,000,00 600,00 120,000,00 500,00 100,000,00 400,00 80,000,00 300,00 60,000,00 200,00 40,000,00 100,00 20,000,

18 Page 18 US companies setting up production facilities in China US air imports of laptops from China from in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 24,00 20, Digital ADP Machines, Portable (Laptops etc) 16,00 12,00 8,00 4,

19 Page 19 for China USA, 25% quarter over quarter growth is the norm US air imports of laptops from China from per quarter in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 10, Digital ADP Machines, Portable (Laptops etc) 8,00 6,00 4,00 2, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 4

20 Page 20 while the European story is almost similar Europe air imports of ADP processing units from China from January 2000 until October 2003 in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg 000's) 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

21 Page 21 Japan is losing its position as the exporting country of computer parts Japanese air exports of computer related equipment from Air Weight, by Reporter (Kgs x 1000) 180, Computer Input, Output, Storage etc. Units Other 160,00 140,00 120,00 100,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,

22 Page 22 Asia automotive trade almost reaching North America levels Automotive trade for Asia and North America for in air tons Air Weight Tons (Kg 000s) 350,00 ASIA NORAM 300,00 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,

23 Page 23 Summary & Conclusions Most industry sector growth in line with economic developments Perishables only growing marginally Exceptions for Chile salmon and Brazil papaya s High tech recovery will be slow Japan losing ground, China gaining strongly Lap tops from China show extraordinary growth Fashion goods: European imports not affected as much as USA China takes leading role as fashion goods exporter Pharmaceuticals: strong and stable growth Automotive: production location shift to Asia affecting air trade