What s NZ s share? Sharing in our Global Carbon Budget

Transcription

1 What s NZ s share? Sharing in our Global Carbon Budget Scott Metcalfe FNZCPHM OraTaiao: The NZ Climate & Health Council

2 NZ s appropriate emissions share? Outline: Context: the Global Carbon budget Global spread of GHG emissions & impacts Various ways to share the global effort What these mean for NZ s 2030 targets Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

3

4 Health warnings prefer >2/3 odds of 2 o C ultimately 1.5 o C production emissions are only one part of total climate action limitations of GDP as a metric Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

5 1. Context the Global Carbon Budget Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

6 Global Abatement pathways 70 annual GHG emissions (Gt CO 2 eq) (actuals to 2013) 1.5' C pathway 2.0' C pathway 10 G8 pathway (projected baseline emissions) Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

7 The world needs to reduce emissions quickly, to keep within the 1010Gt carbon budget Source: Paul Young/Generation Zero Source: MfE NZ 2015 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

8 To remain within budget, the later we start, the greater the effort needed global net CO2 emissions (MtCO2) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 baseline actuals projected, unmitigated start year 2010 start year 2015 start year 2018 start year 2020 start year % 1.8% % unmitigated emissions (CERP 2' pathway) ,000 year Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

9 2. Global spread of emissions & impacts Global epidemiology: uneven emissions, health impacts, opportunities Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

10 Where people live and their income: Population GDP Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

11 Historic fossil CO2 emissions fossil CO2 emissions (Mt) North America: USA & Canada EU other established (JpAuNZ) former Soviet bloc, plus Turkey recent developed developing other least developed NthAm post EU post oee post fsb+ post RDE post DE post post = post per capita emissions budget depletion Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

12 population 2013 USA+Canada JpAuNZ fossil_co other least developed other least developed EU ex Soviet bloc, Turkey recent developed econs USA+Canada EU JpAuNZ developing developing recent developed econs ex Soviet bloc, Turkey developing recent developed other least developed GDP 2013 USA+Canada EU JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey change 2013 vs 2012, fossil_co2 other least developed USA+Canada EU JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey recent developed econs developing Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

13 cuml emissions , fco2 other least developed USA+Canada cuml emissions , nghg other least developed USA+Canada EU developing EU JpAuNZ recent developed econs ex Soviet bloc, Turkey JpAuNZ developing recent developed econs ex Soviet bloc, Turkey excess CC deaths 2030 USA+Canada other least developed EU JpAuNZ ex Soviet recent bloc, Turkey developed econs developing cuml emissions , LUCF other least developed USA+Canada EU JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey recent developed econs developing Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

14 per capita gross GHG emissions/budgets per capita gross GHG emissions (tonnes CO2 e) year spent: New Zealand 1981 Australia 1975 Canada 1969 United States 1948 EU Japan 2003 Russia Brazil 2015 Indonesia World 2012 United States Australia New Zealand New Zealand Australia Canada United States EU 15 Japan New Zealand post Australia post Canada post United States post EU 15 post Japan post post = post per capita emissions budget depletion Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

15 Deforestation it s not just Brazil New Zealand Australia Canada United States EU 15 Japan Russia Brazil Indonesia per capita LUCF CO2 emissions (tonnes) World Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

16 per capita cumulative fossil CO cf GDP in 2013 (log scales) $100,000 R² = per capita GDP 2013 ($US PPP), log scale $10,000 $1,000 per capita GDP in 2013 ($US PPP) Annex IIa countries nonannex IIa Australia New Zealand $100 "Annex IIa " , ,000.0 = UNFCCC Annex II countries cumulative fossil CO2 emissions Scott , Metcalfe, per capita 25 September 2013 population 2015 (tco2), log scale minus Turkey 16

17 Poverty relates to poor health (GDP v DALYL, log scale) 1,400.0 DALYs lost per 1000 population in 2012 (log scale) $24,530, DALYL per 1000 NZ USA Central African Republic Chad Power (DALYL per 1000) R² = $400 $4,000 $40,000 per capita GDP 2012 ($US PPP), log scale Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

18 The climate gap: those who have emitted most vs. those impacted first and worst cuml fco selected excess climate change deaths 2030 maps by Mark Metcalfe

19 $100,000 Historic emissions, current per capita GDP and projected future excess deaths from climate change 1, per capita GDP 2013 ($US PPP), log scale $10,000 $1,000 Chad Qatar excess deaths form climate change (4 conditions) in 2030 per million population, log sclae pc GDP Australia New Zealand USA UK excess CC deaths 2030 per m $ Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015 cumulative fossil CO2 emissions , per capita 2013 population (tco2), log scale 19

20 3. How best to share? Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

21 Various approaches to sharing 1. Resource sharing approaches Equal Per Capita Emission Rights Contraction and Convergence (C&C) Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC) One Billion High Emitters (aka the Princeton Proposal) The n Prime Minister s approach Equal Cumulative Per Capita Emission Rights approaches 2. Effort sharing approaches Equity in the Greenhouse, South North dialogue Brazilian Historic Responsibility Greenhouse Development Rights framework (now CERf) Oxfam approach EU approach for Annex I countries Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

22 Necessary attributes for approaches? (CAN Int assessment criteria) Common but differentiated R&C Historical responsibility Current responsibility Future responsibility Capacity/capability Luxury emissions / Overconsumption National inequality Equal treatment for all Developed countries lead Right to sustainable development Supports science based ambition & right to survival while providing sufficient space for finance for sustainable development Treats adaptation as core Subsidiary principles Economic cost effectiveness Simplicity of calculation of public presentation Comparability Can include land use changes Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

23 Brief descriptions of C&C, CERf/GDRf Equal Per Capita Emission Rights proportional to population size, within global pathway Contraction and Convergence current per capita emissions gradually converging to global per capita average, within global pathway Greenhouse Development Rights proportional to responsibility (historic emissions) and capacity (ability to mitigate = GDP), within global pathway; responsibility and capacity index (RCI) includes a development threshold = a minimum income level above global poverty line. Climate Equity Reference framework/project calculates multiple GDR like scenarios (global pathway start date for historical responsibility weighting of responsibility vs capacity +/ development threshold +/ other progressivity etc. etc.) Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

24 Different models/ways to divide the global budget between countries (Höhne et al 2013 meta modelling results for Japan+Australia+NZ) target GHGe 2030 (MtCO2 eq) Capability/ 018 Chakravarty et al. 2009/ CDR 25 GtCO2/ 02 Capability/ 018 Chakravarty et al. 2009/ CDR 25P GtCO2/ Capability/ 035 Jacoby et al. 2008/ 30/70/ Capability/ 035 Jacoby et al. 2008/ Full comp equal alloc/ Capability/ 035 Jacoby et al. 2008/ Full comp equal cost/ Capability/ 045 Kriegler et al. (submitted) PBL/ Equal costs/ 2020 pledges 02 Capability/ 046 Kriegler et al. (submitted) IIASA/ Equal costs/ 2020 pledges 02 Capability/ 048 Kriegler et al. (submitted) FEEM/ Equal costs/ 2020 pledges Capability 03 Equality/ 002 van Vuuren 2010/ C&C 2050/ 2010 KP target excl. US 03 Equality/ 005 den Elzen et al b/ C&C 2050/ 2010 KP target excl. US 03 Equality/ 009 van Vuuren 2009/ C&C 2050/ 2010 KP target excl. US 03 Equality/ 011 den Elzen and Meinshausen 2006/ C&C 2050/ 2010 KP target excl. US 03 Equality/ 019 Bows and Anderson 2008/ C&C 2100/ Equality/ 034 Onigkeit et al. 2009/ C&C 2050/ Equality/ 038 Hoehne and Moltmann 2008/ C&C 2100/ 2010 KP target excl. US 03 Equality/ 045 Kriegler et al. (submitted) PBL/ C&C/ 2020 pledges 03 Equality/ 046 Kriegler et al. (submitted) IIASA/ C&C/ 2020 pledges 03 Equality/ 048 Kriegler et al. (submitted) FEEM/ C&C/ 2020 pledges Equality 04 Res cap need/ 038 Hoehne and Moltmann 2008/ GDR/ 2010 KP target excl. US 04 Res cap need/ 050 Baer et al. 2008/ GDR/ 2012 Responsibility + Capability + Need 05 Eq cum per cap/ 027 WBGU 2009/ CB (FR)/ Eq cum per cap/ 042 Jayaraman et al. 2011/ CB trajectory 1850/ 2010 Act Em 05 Eq cum per cap/ 042 Jayaraman et al. 2011/ CB trajectory 1970/ 2010 Act Em Equal cumulative per capita 06 Staged/ 001 den Elzen 2012/ CDC AI 80%/ 2020 pledges 06 Staged/ 001 den Elzen 2012/ CDC AI 85%/ 2020 pledges 06 Staged/ 001 den Elzen 2012/ CDC AI 90%/ 2020 pledges 06 Staged/ 001 den Elzen 2012/ CDC AI 95%/ 2020 pledges 06 Staged/ 005 den Elzen et al b/ MS/ 2010 KP target excl. US 06 Staged/ 007 Hof den Elzen 2010/ TY/ 2010 KP target excl. US 06 Staged/ 008 den Elzen et al. 2008a/ TY/ 2010 KP target excl. US 06 Staged/ 010 den Elzen et al. 2007/ South North/ 2010 KP target excl. US 06 Staged/ 011 den Elzen and Meinshausen 2006/ MS/ 2010 KP target excl. US Staged 07 Potential/ 009 van Vuuren 2009/ Eq cost/ 2010 KP target excl. US 07 Potential/ 045 Kriegler et al. (submitted) PBL/ Global tax/ Potential/ 045 Kriegler et al. (submitted) PBL/ Global tax/ 2020 pledges 07 Potential/ 046 Kriegler et al. (submitted) IIASA/ Global tax/ Potential/ 046 Kriegler et al. (submitted) IIASA/ Global tax/ 2020 pledges 07 Potential/ 048 Kriegler et al. (submitted) FEEM/ Global tax/ Potential/ 048 Kriegler et al. (submitted) FEEM/ Global tax/ 2020 pledges Mitigation potential Capability Equality Responsibility + Capability + Need Equal cumulative per capita Staged Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015 Mitigation potential 24

25 Available calculators Climate Action Tracker meta models GCI Contraction & Convergence Climate Equity Reference Project Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

26 How the different models compare C&C vs. CERf/GDR 2030 targets per capita contract&converge model (t) 30.0 per capita GDR model (t) 2'C, 1990resp, mid equity New Zealand 25.0 New Zealand 20.0 Australia Canada 20.0 Australia Canada 15.0 United States United Kingdom 15.0 United States United Kingdom 10.0 Germany Sweden 10.0 Germany Sweden 5.0 EU 15 Japan 5.0 EU 15 Japan Russia Brazil Russia Brazil 10.0 Indonesia 10.0 Indonesia Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

27 4. Use of models for NZ Scott Metcalfe, 25 September Photo Credit WWF NZ

28 NZ is especially sensitive to model type gross GHG emissions (MtCO2 eq) NZ is small, with an unusual emissions profile Example: NZ has large variations between models Mexico (pop 125m, 5t per capita gghg) has small variations NZ popln model GDP model current GHGe model cuml gghge model contract&converge model CERF model (baseline) Note: baselines and targets use previous GWP based emissions 18.1 baseline values (eg MtCO2 e gross GHG emissions), not the AR4 updated GWP based values (eg MtCO32 e gross GHG). gross GHG emissions (MtCO2 eq) Mexico popln model GDP model current GHGe model cuml gghge model contract&converge model CERF model (baseline) Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

29 Climate Action Tracker for NZ 10 to +50 MtC02 eq gghg by 2030 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

30 CERf/GDRf for NZ Gross all gas emissions Net all gas emissions Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

31 2030 targets for NZ from different models 1. gross GHG gross GHG emissions (MtCO2 eq) NZ INDC popln model GDP model current GHGe model cuml gghge model contract&converge model CERF model (baseline) Note: baselines and targets use previous GWP based emissions baseline values (eg MtCO2 e gross GHG emissions), not the 2007 AR4 updated GWP based values (eg MtCO32 e gross GHG). Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

32 2030 targets for NZ from different models 2. net GHG net GHG emissions (MtCO2 eq) Note: baselines and targets use 20.0 previous GWP based emissions 14.4 baseline values (eg 23.3 MtCO2 e 5.4 net GHG emissions in 1990), not the 2007 AR4 updated GWP based 0.0 values (38.1 MtCO2 e net GHG in Scott 2010Metcalfe, 25 September ) popln model GDP model current GHGe model cuml gghge model contract&converge model CERF model (baseline)

33 Who takes NZ s share if NZ doesn t? Our smaller poorer Pacific neighbours? $ $109.4b 10.6m $100 NZ GDP,2012 ($b) PICT GDP,2012 ($b) total gross GHG emissions, and projected under CERf* (Mt CO2 eq) (2' pathway, 1990 resp, mid equity settings) m $29.9b 2015 $80 INDC 11% reduction from 1990 $60 $40 $20 $ NZ pop,2014 (million) PICT pop,2014 (million) NZ gross GHGe actual & predicted PICT gross GHGe actual & predicted NZ GHGe reqd under CERf (2014 onwards) PICT GHGe reqd under CERf (2014+) NZ commitment INDC July 2015 PICTs = Pacific Island Countries and Territories: Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, (Federated States of) Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu 20.0 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September $20

34 Reminder: emitters vs affected cuml fco selected excess climate change deaths 2030 maps by Mark Metcalfe

35 The bottom line: those impacted first and worst selected excess climate change deaths 2030 map by Mark Metcalfe

36 Summary NZ 2030 target: Mt gross GHG (= 63 71% reduction from 1990) (5 23 Mt net GHG) Caveats: as a starting point prefer >2/3 odds of 2 o C ultimately 1.5 o C Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

37 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

38 Spare slides (for use prn).. Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

39 Global emissions budgets carbon vs greenhouse gases Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

40 Possible (new) world cartograms to insert 1 DALYL population population GDP fossil CO net GHG cuml emissions , fco2 8 cuml emissions , nghg 9 cuml emissions , LUCF 10 change 2013 vs 2012, fossil_co2 11 change 2013 vs 2012, net GHG 12 change 2013 vs 2012, LUCF 13 excess CC deaths C&C 2030 nghg alloc 15 CERP 2030 nghg alloc 16 C&C nghg budget 17 CERP nghg budget Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

41 Child mortality (ages 1 4) Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

42 2030 C&C nghg alloc USA+Canada EU other least developed JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, developing Turkey recent developed econs other least developed 2030 CERP nghg alloc USA+Canada EU JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey developing recent developed econs C&C nghg budget other least developed USA+Canada EU developing JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey recent developed econs CERP nghg budget other least developed USA+Canada EU developing JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey recent developed econs Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

43 Patterns vary % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% other least developed developing recent developed former Soviet bloc, plus Turkey other established (JpAuNZ) EU North America: USA & Canada 40% 60% 80% Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

44 per capita popln model model (t) per capita contract&converge model (t) per capita CER model (t) 2'C, 1990resp, mid equity 44 per capita gghg emissions calculated for 2030 (t CO2 e) United Kingdom New Zealand Australia Canada United States Germany Sweden EU 15 Japan Russia Brazil Indonesia Nigeria Annex 2 Non Annex per capita gghg emissions combined (t CO2 e) New Zealand Australia Canada United States United Kingdom Germany Sweden EU 15 Japan Russia Brazil Indonesia Annex 2 Non Annex 1 Nigeria Scott Metcalfe, 25 September per capita contract&converge model (t) per capita GDR model (t) 2'C, 1990resp, mid equity

45 per capita fossil CO2 budgets per capita fossil CO2 emissions (tonnes) North America: USA & Canada EU other established (JpAuNZ) former Soviet bloc, plus Turkey recent developed developing other least developed World NthAm post EU post oee post fsb+ post RDE post DE post post = post per capita emissions budget depletion Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

46 per capita fossil CO2 budgets New Zealand Australia Canada United States Australia EU 15 Japan New Zealand post Australia post New Zealand Canada post United States post EU 15 post Japan post post = post per capita emissions budget depletion Scott Metcalfe, 25 September per capita fossil CO2 emissions (tonnes)

47 Cumulative fossil CO , cf GDP in 2013 (log scales) $1,000.0 $100.0 per capita GDP 2013 ($US PPP), log scale $10.0 per capita GDP in 2013 ($US PPP) Australia New Zealand USA UK Power (per capita GDP in 2013 ($US PPP)) $ R² = per person year cuml fossil CO2 emissions (MtCO2), log scale $0.1 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

48 Poverty relates to poor health (GDP v. DALY losses) 1, , , DALYL per 1000 Power (DALYL per 1000) y = x R² = Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 48

49 Historic emissions correlate with both current per capita GDP and health losses $100, Qatar per capita GDP 2013 ($US PPP), log scale $10,000 $1,000 Chad DALYs lost 2012 per 1000 population, log sclae pc GDP Australia New Zealand USA UK DALYL per 1000 $ Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015 cumulative fossil CO2 emissions , per capita 2013 population (tco2), log scale 49

50 Its complicated.. Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

51 2030 C&C nghg alloc USA+Canada EU other least developed JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, developing Turkey recent developed econs other least developed 2030 CERP nghg alloc USA+Canada EU JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey developing recent developed econs C&C nghg budget other least developed USA+Canada EU developing JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey recent developed econs CERP nghg budget other least developed USA+Canada EU developing JpAuNZ ex Soviet bloc, Turkey recent developed econs Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

52 How the different models look across selected countries and compare with each other (incl NZ) per capita baseline gross GHG tco2e (BAU) 30.0 per capita popln model (t) New Zealand Australia Canada United States United Kingdom Germany Sweden EU 15 Japan Russia Brazil Indonesia Nigeria Annex 2 Non Annex New Zealand Australia Canada United States United Kingdom Germany Sweden EU 15 Japan Russia Brazil Indonesia Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

53 How the different models compare C&C vs. CERf/GDR efforts per capita contract&converge model (t) 5.0 per capita GDR model (t) 2'C, 1990resp, mid equity 5.0 New Zealand New Zealand Australia Canada United States Australia Canada United States 5.0 United Kingdom Germany 5.0 United Kingdom Germany Sweden Sweden EU 15 EU Japan 10.0 Japan Russia Russia Brazil Brazil Indonesia Indonesia 20.0 Nigeria Annex Nigeria Annex 2 Non Annex 1 Non Annex Scott Metcalfe, 25 September

54 What 2030 targets the different models give for NZ (3) CERP vs. INDC (baseline gross emissions) NZ total greenhouse emissions (MtCo2e) year Scott Metcalfe, 25 September contract&converge model CERF model CERF 1.5' pathway CERF responsibility cuml since 1950 (40% reduction, gross gross) (NZ INDC July 2015) Note: baselines and targets use previous GWP based emissions baseline values (eg MtCO2 e gross GHG emissions), not the 2007 AR4 updated GWP based values (eg MtCO32 e gross GHG). 54

55 Effects on the Pacific of NZ s stance (2) per capita 25.0 $24,530 $25,000 NZ GDP per capita,2012 past per capita gross GHG emissions, and projected under CERf* (tonnes CO2 eq) (CERP 2' pathway, 1990 resp, mid equity settings) $2, INDC 11% reduction from $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 PICT GDP per capita, 2012 NZ gross GHGe actual & predicted PICT gross GHGe actual & predicted NZ GHGe reqd under CERf (2014 onwards) PICT GHGe reqd under CERf (2014+) NZ commitment INDC July 2015 PICT extra effort if NZ only meets commtmnts CERf PICTs = Pacific Island Countries and Territories: Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, (Federated States of) Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu 5.0 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015 $5,000 55