Skagit River Historical Flood Elevations and Peak Flow Estimates
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1 Skagit River Historical Flood Elevations and Peak Flow Estimates to be presented at Skagit River GI H&H Technical Workshop Wednesday, June 17, 2009
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3 Background Corps of Engineers began a General Investigation study in 1996 Skagit County the local sponsor Study to be completed maybe 2015 County hired Pacific International Engineering in 2002 to supplement COE effort PI Engineering and Corps could not agree on hydrology County made policy decision to terminate PI Engineering contract in 2006
4 More Background FEMA contracted with the Corps to develop revised flood insurance maps in 2003 Hydrology was still an issue Skagit County contracted with Northwest Hydraulic Consultants in early 2006 to further study the hydrology issue Mount Vernon, Burlington and 2 Dike Districts contracted with PI Engineering in late 2006 to further study the hydrology issue COE issued revised hydrology report in May 2008 PI Engineering issued revised hydrology report in October 2008 Topic of this presentation nhc issued revised hydrology report in November 2008
5 Even More Background Following the extensive work of James E. Stewart, a Hydraulic Engineer who studied the Skagit Basin from , a gage was installed in 1924 near Concrete and has been continuously recording river stage/discharge information since 84 years of data at a stable gage site Stewart s work is extensively documented in his field notes of
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7 At Issue Magnitude of historic floods
8 SKAGIT RIVER WINTER UNREGULATED ANNUAL PEAK DISCHARGES Water Year 1898 to USGS Gage near Concrete, WA Discharge, CFS 300, , , , , , , , ,000 50, Water Year
9 Stewart and USGS Peak Discharge Estimates for Historical Floods at Sedro-Woolley Stewart Flood USGS Rigg & Robinson Hidaka Bodhaine , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 (Source: Stewart 1918 & 1923 Reports; Proposed Revision of Skagit River Peaks, H.C. Riggs & W.H. Robinson, 11/16/50; Skagit River near Sedro-Woolley, Wash., Proposed revisions of historical flood peaks, F. L. Hidaka, 1/12/54; Skagit River Flood Peaks, Memorandum of Review by G.L. Bodhaine, USGS, 5/13/54). Available at
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11 52.95 USGS # USGS # Staff Gage Location (Prior to Dec 10, 1924) USGS # Current USGS Gage Location Main Channel Cross-Section Secondary Channel Cross-Section
12 2003 Main Channel High Water Marks Stewart s slope/area reach below the Dalles Surveyed (in summer 2004) by USGS High Water Marks 51 RH-301-F (gage datum El. 130 NGVD-29) Elevation RH-8-G RH-13-F RH-12-F RH-11-P RH-9-P LH-304-G LH-303-G LH-302-G LH-7-P RH-10-P RH-2-P LH-6-G LH-1-P RH-1-G RH-4-P RH-3-P RH-7-P RH-5-P RH-6-P LH-2-G LH-4-F LH-5-G LH-3-F RH-300-F RH-16-P RH-17-F RH-14-P LH-300-P RH-15-P LH-301-P LH-305-F LH-308-F LH-306-F LH-307-F RH-302 LH-9-P LH-10-P RH-26-G RH-25-P RH-24-F RH-23-F RH-22-F RH-20-G RH-21-G LH-11-P RH-30-F LH-12-F RH-28-F RH-27-F RH-29-F RH-47-F LH-16-G RH-32-F RH-41-G LH-14-E RH-33-GRH-35-G RH-37-G RH-34-G RH-36-F RH-40-G LH-13-E RH-39-G RH-38-PRH-42-F RH-43-G RH-46-G LH-15-E RH-31-F RH-44-G RH-45-P RH-49-F RH-48-P RH-51-F RH-50-GRH-53-P LH-17-G LH-18-G RH-52-F RH-63-F RH-68-F RH-67-P RH-58-P RH-57-P RH-66-P RH-61-F LH-28-G LH-25-F RH-65-F LH-27-F RH-59-G RH-64-PRH-73-F RH-74-F RH-76-G LH-29-F RH-60-F LH-23-P LH-31-G RH-84-G RH-85-P RH-72-P RH-77-F RH-54-P RH-83-G RH-69-P RH-62-F RH-56-F RH-55-P LH-21-F LH-30-F LH-19-P LH-20-P RH-71-P RH-82-G RH-70-P RH-79-F RH-80-F RH-78-P LH-24-P RH-81-P LH-22-F RH-75-F LH-26-F RB HWMs LB HWMs XS3 XS2 XS1 XS4 XS5 XS6 XS7 LH-8-P Distance
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14 USGS Estimated Peak Stages and Discharges of Skagit River near Concrete for Four Historical Floods (Drainage Area = 2,700 sq. mi.) Flood Gage Height at Current Gage* as Published in 1961 (ft) Gage Height** Estimated by Stewart in 1923*** (ft) Discharge Estimated by Stewart in 1923*** (cfs) Discharge Revised by USGS in 2007**** (cfs) , , , , , , , ,000 * Current gage datum El (NGVD29) at RM ** At the Upper Dalles gage installed by Stewart for his flood investigation during the winter of Gage Datum El surveyed by Stewart (Stewart s survey notes, pp ). *** These unpublished 1923 estimates by James Stewart were documented in the 1961 U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper (WSP) 1527 (USGS 1961). **** Revised due to Manning s n verification in Scientific Investigations Report (USGS 2007)
15 PI Engineering Approach: Use modern hydraulic modeling techniques to assign a discharge estimate to Stewart-surveyed high water marks of the 1921 flood
16 At Hamilton Smith house constructed in 1908 Survived floods of 1909, 1917, and 1921 Stewart-surveyed high water marks (based on citizen interviews in 1922), and additional information documenting the 1909 flood in County records
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18 Historical Flood Marks in Lyman-Hamilton Area
19 Aerial Photo of Hamilton Area
20 2003 Flood in Hamilton Photo showing WS El , 145,000 cfs Flood Peak WS El , 165,000 cfs at 9:30 am (photo taken by Skagit County on Oct. 21, 2003, 2:20 pm)
21 2003 Flood in Hamilton Photo showing WS El , 145,000 cfs Flood Peak WS El , 165,000 cfs at 9:30 am (photo taken by Skagit County on Oct. 21, 2003, 2:40 pm)
22 Smith House, built in 1908, Hamilton WA
23 Smith House in Hamilton during Oct. 21, 2003 Flood Photo showing WS El. 100, 145,000 cfs (2:40 pm) Flood peak WS El. 101, 165,000 cfs (9:30 am)
24 Smith House in Hamilton, undated photograph of the 1909, 1917, or 1921 flood event (Hamilton Museum archives) First Floor El Water Surface El. 98 (+) shown in the photo
25 Smith House, built in 1908, Hamilton WA
26 Smith House, built in 1908, Hamilton WA
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28 Hamilton Flood Elevations Then and Now Year Water Level in Hamilton, A. J. Jacobin Cigar Store And Smith House (no data)
29 Hamilton Results Max historical flood discharge since 1908 at the Smith House was no more than 188,000 cfs Historical flood discharges for the 1909, 1917, and 1921 events based on Stewart s HWMs at Jacobin Cigar Store appear much less than 188,000 cfs
30 At Concrete Extension of hydraulic model and comparison to Stewart-surveyed high water marks (based on citizen interview) Forensic investigation of houses built prior to 1921 to determine if they had previously been flooded
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32 If,-- Old Wolfe Residence Crofoot,,, "'''''"'to p.~,,'-' 6Y L, ~ ~.,,'" t:.).~,'> ~''",..,_'. co< to.. "'-'Y ~-. "'<I ~~"... ',,.... C', ';:::::'~""""" 4. -,... ' """"" ~'" ",-,...,... " I!-J'....., ~ '"... :-'-
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34 Jenkins House at 7752 South Dillard (Photo provided by Allen Jenkins) October 2003 Flood El (County Surveyed)
35 Comparison of Modeled and Observed 2003 Flood Elevations (NGVD-29) Date of Flood Time Skagit River Flow* (cfs) Baker River Flow** (cfs) High Water Mark Location Source of Data Observed (ft) Modeled (ft) Difference (ft) btw. Modeled and observed flood elev. 21-Oct-03 6:15 AM 165,655 4,647 Baker River gage USGS gage record Oct-03 6:30 AM 164,169 4,655 Baker River gage USGS gage record Oct-03 7:15 AM 162,602 4,710 Baker River gage USGS gage record Oct-03 7:30 AM 162,342 4,747 Baker River gage USGS gage record Oct-03 9:30 AM 150,956 4,822 Baker River gage USGS gage record Oct-03 9:45 AM 151,538 4,822 Baker River gage USGS gage record Oct-03 6:15 AM 165,655 4,647 Jenkins House Resident provided photo Oct-03 6:30 AM 164,169 4,655 Jenkins House Resident provided photo Oct-03 9:30 AM 150,956 4,822 Jenkins House Resident provided photo Oct-03 9:45 AM 151,538 4,822 Jenkins House Resident provided photo Oct-03 6:15 AM 165,655 4,647 Old staff gage at the Dalles USGS 2004 survey Oct-03 6:30 AM 164,169 4,655 Old staff gage at the Dalles USGS 2004 survey *USGS provided flow data (15-minute interval) at the Skagit River gage near Concrete **PSE provided hourly flow data (interpolated for 15-minute interval) below Lower Baker Dam and powerhouse
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37 Comparison of 1911 and 2008 Surveyed Skagit River Channel Bottom Profiles in Concrete Reach
38 Flood Stage-Discharge Curve at Wolfe Residence in Concrete
39 HEC-RAS Modeled Flood Profiles in Concrete Reach of the Skagit and Baker Rivers
40 Stewart s Surveyed 1921 High Water Marks in the Dalles Stewart s surveyed 1921 HW elevations (El.) and elevation differences (h) (quoted from Stewart's survey notes and Exhibit B of his unpublished 1923 report): El and El at the upper Dalles gage (notes, pp , gage heights added to gage datum El ) El at 865 ft below the lower Dalles gage (notes, pp ) h = 4.2 ft for the 560 ft distance between his "contracted opening" section 1 (100 ft below the upper Dales gage) and section 3 (the lower Dalles gage) (p. 14, Exhibit B) h = 2.11 ft between his "slope" section 1 (618 ft below the lower Dalles gage) and section 2 (2,479 ft below the lower Dalles gage) (p. 2 & p. 9, Exhibit B) h = 2.62 ft between his "slope" section 2 and section 3 (4,655 ft below the lower Dalles gage) (p. 2 & p. 10, Exhibit B) h = 4.73 ft between his "slope" section 1 and section 3 (p. 11, Exhibit B) Based on these Stewart's numbers, the following 1921 HW elevations were estimated: El at the lower Dalles gage El at the "slope" section 1 El at the "slope" section 2 El at the "slope" section 3
41 1921 and 2003 Flood High Water Marks Surveyed by Stewart (in ) and USGS (in summer 2004)
42 45956 Albert Street (1912) Charlie & Marinette Ripple 1 st Floor Elevation: Albert Street (1900) Charlie & Marinette Ripple 1 st Floor Elevation: Albert Street (1915) Theresia Darnell 1 st Floor Elevation: Benjamin Street (1914) Merritt & Marcie O Bryan 1 st Floor Elevation: Albert Street (1911) Ardys Lane 1 st Floor Elevation: Benjamin Street (1912) Blanche Red McManaman 1 st Floor Elevation: South Dillard Avenue (1915) Allen Jenkins 1 st Floor Elevation: Crofoot Parcels and First Floor Elevations (2008 surveyed by County)
43 Ripple House #1, parcel #70749 Ripple House #1, Albert Street, Crofoot Addition, Concrete Ripple House #1 with exterior siding removed for inspection of interior wall cavity. First floor elevation
44 Ripple House #2, parcel #P70748 First Floor Elevation Annotated photo showing exterior siding removed for inspection of interior wall cavity
45 Jenkins House at 7752 South Dillard (Photo provided by Allen Jenkins) October 2003 Flood modeled 1917 (220,000 cfs) HEC-RAS modeled 1921 (240,000 cfs) El (County Surveyed) Stewart-surveyed 1921 HWM
46 Location of Pressentin Ferry Kemmerick Ranch Savage Ranch
47 Flood Stage-Discharge Curves at Kemmerick and Savage Ranches near Birdsview
48 Estimated Peak Discharges of Skagit River near Concrete for Four Historical Floods (Drainage Area = 2,700 sq. mi.) Flood Discharge Estimated by Stewart in 1923 (cfs) Discharge Revised by USGS in 2007 (cfs) Discharge Modeled by PIE in 2008 (cfs) , , , , , , , , , , , ,700
49 SKAGIT RIVER WINTER UNREGULATED ANNUAL PEAK DISCHARGES (PIE) Water Year 1898 to USGS Gage near Concrete, WA 300, , YEAR FLOOD 240,800 cfs Discharge, CFS 200, , ,000 50, Water Year
50 SKAGIT RIVER WINTER UNREGULATED ANNUAL PEAK DISCHARGES (COE) Water Year 1898 to USGS Gage near Concrete, WA 300, YEAR FLOOD 278,000 cfs 250,000 Discharge, CFS 200, , ,000 50, Water Year
51 FEMA 100-Year Flood Hydrographs at Sedro Woolley (with existing flood storage)
52 Questions?
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