The Evolving Shopper & Its Impact on Produce

Transcription

1 The Evolving Shopper & Its Impact on Produce Amir Jalaly & Chris Cowan

2 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape

3 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape

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5 Kantar Noun 1. A unit of weight or measurement 5

6 Methodology The largest shopper panel in Great Britain Geographically and demographically representative of the population of GB 30,000 Households in GB

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8 65 PRODUCE SUPPLIERS IN THE UK 8

9 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape

10 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change

11 FOOD Food and IS BECOMING Drink as a Proportion LESS COMPARATIVELY of UK Household Expenditure CHEAPER % % household expenditure spent on food Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV 11

12 BUT OTHER COSTS ARE INCREASING Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure % % household expenditure spent on food 25 Housing & Utilities Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV 12

13 Spend on food 1970s 21% 15% Now 9% 11% ONS ABQI 13

14 Shopping habits Trips per annum Spend per trip % eating out 80% of sales 228 $ % 6 88 $ % 20 KWP Usage & Booz & Co. Analysis 14 US Dept of Agriculture Economic Research Service

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18 Long term shares of Major Retailers UK Grocery Independents Co-ops Sainsbury's Tesco Asda 18

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20 6% 1% 20

21 6.8% of Total Grocery 21

22 6.8% of Total Grocery 10% of produce value 13% of produce volume 22

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24 90p 89p 89p 1 24

25 THIS HAS BEEN KEY TO ALDI S METEORIC RISE IN PRODUCE Aldi market share % % Aldi Value 52 w/e 14 Nov w/e 12 Dec w/e 09 Jan w/e 06 Feb w/e 06 Mar w/e 03 Apr w/e 01 May w/e 29 May w/e 26 Jun w/e 24 Jul w/e 21 Aug w/e 18 Sep w/e 16 Oct w/e 13 Nov w/e 11 Dec w/e 08 Jan w/e 05 Feb w/e 04 Mar w/e 01 Apr w/e 29 Apr w/e 27 May w/e 24 Jun w/e 22 Jul w/e 19 Aug w/e 16 Sep w/e 14 Oct w/e 11 Nov w/e 09 Dec w/e 06 Jan w/e 03 Feb w/e 03 Mar w/e 31 Mar w/e 28 Apr w/e 26 May w/e 23 Jun w/e 21 Jul w/e 18 Aug w/e 15 Sep w/e 13 Oct w/e 10 Nov w/e 08 Dec w/e 05 Jan w/e 02 Feb w/e 02 Mar w/e 30 Mar w/e 27 Apr w/e 25 May w/e 22 Jun w/e 20 Jul w/e 17 Aug w/e 14 Sep w/e 12 Oct w/e 09 Nov 14 25

26 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change

27 Number of times we purchase produce per year.

28 THE SHOPPER THEMSELVES? -11kgs Decline in produce volume of average household over 5 years

29 Top produce markets by spend Berries & Currants Berries & Currants Dessert Apples Tomato Banana Old Potatoes New Potatoes Easy Peelers Mushroom Peppers Grape - White Dessert Apples Tomato Old Potatoes Banana Easy Peelers Mushroom New Potatoes Grape - Red Peppers

30 Long term volume change key markets Millions tonnes Potatoes Apples Pears Brassicas Legumes Citrus Bananas Tropical Fruits Root Crops Salads Soft Fruit

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32 1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3+ YEARS GROWTH DECLINE

33 1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3+ YEARS GROWTH 9% 18% 27% DECLINE 18% 15% 13% 33

34 28% % of produce market in long term decline 34

35 SOME OF THE BIGGEST CASUALTIES 35

36 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change

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38 A simple problem The Challenge declining volume sales 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , w/e 04 Apr 10-3% -2% -2% -9% 52 w/e 03 Apr w/e 01 Apr w/e 31 Mar w/e 30 Mar 14 38

39 DO PEOPLE KNOW THEY RE BUYING LESS? Potatoes Less Potatoes Same Potatoes More Filtered to respondants who have decreased purchasing by 20%+ in last year 39

40 Competitors Convenience Shopper Journey & Decision Process 40

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42 POTATO VOLUMES 12 W/E w/e 06 Feb w/e 06 Mar w/e 03 Apr w/e 01 May w/e 29 May w/e 26 Jun w/e 24 Jul w/e 21 Aug w/e 18 Sep w/e 16 Oct w/e 13 Nov w/e 11 Dec w/e 08 Jan w/e 05 Feb w/e 04 Mar w/e 01 Apr w/e 29 Apr w/e 27 May w/e 24 Jun w/e 22 Jul w/e 19 Aug w/e 16 Sep w/e 14 Oct w/e 11 Nov w/e 09 Dec w/e 06 Jan w/e 03 Feb w/e 03 Mar w/e 31 Mar w/e 28 Apr w/e 26 May w/e 23 Jun w/e 21 Jul w/e 18 Aug w/e 15 Sep w/e 13 Oct w/e 10 Nov w/e 08 Dec w/e 05 Jan w/e 02 Feb w/e 02 Mar w/e 30 Mar w/e 27 Apr w/e 25 May w/e 22 Jun w/e 20 Jul w/e 17 Aug w/e 14 Sep w/e 12 Oct 14 42

43 How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change

44 WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape

45 BEFORE WE GET CARRIED AWAY consumption habits rarely change quickly Our #1 4.2 dish different evening meals per week

46 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking

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49 60% % 49

50 LESS AND LESS TIME IN THE KITCHEN minutes minutes minutes 50

51 Shift from selling ingredients Ingredient = lower value 51

52 To selling solutions Dish maker = high value 52

53 But we still love our food We watch 121 hours of food programmes on TV a year We own 9 recipe books 53

54 Trade Off 54

55 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking

56 SPEED & SIMPLICITY BECOMING MORE & MORE IMPORTANT The Need for Speed: 1 in 5 occasions described as A quick bite Simplicity: On Average only 2 prep methods at eve meals 56

57 Total Produce -11kgs 57

58 Diversifying risk by investing away from the whole head arena to spread risk

59 Price/Kg 2.14 vs vs

60 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking

61 Meals are not easily volume expandable Of all occasions only Snacking is truly volume expandable 61

62 1 in every 5 times we eat, it s a snack

63 Healthy snacking is on the up J F M M A M J J A S O N D J F M M A M J J A

64 HEALTHY SNACKING 2.6 BILLION 2.6 billion

65 Pink Lady Apples 65

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67 Long term volume change key markets Millions tonnes Apples Pears Citrus 8 Bananas 14 Tropical Fruits 36 Soft Fruit 79 67

68 8.5% 88% 22pa 68

69 WHEN IS PINK LADY CONSUMED? Breakfast Snacking Breakfast 32 Lunch Dinner Snacking 28 Lunch Dinner 69

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71 Why do people choose Pink Lady? To get portion of fruit or veg 70 Health benefits (fibre/vitamins) 50 Lower in fat/salt/sugar 10 Lighter/not filling 8 Calorie or portion control 7

72 So we change the product communication. But is this enough to increase frequency of consumption? 72

73 42 That s how many chances you have each week to stand out in the Fridge 24 in the Cupboard 8 in the Freezer WorldpanelUsage

74 The fridge is key! Higher frequency of consumption Higher visibility 74

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76 Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking

77 Shoppers are changing Consumers are changing

78 For further information please contact: Amir Jalaly Tel.: +44 (0) For further information please contact: Chris Cowan Tel.: +44 (0)