The Complete Guide to Fantasy Kickology

Transcription

1 The Complete Guide to Fantasy Kickology by Mike Herman and Guests, Exclusive to Footballguys.com You can lead a horse to water, but you can t make him split the uprights. author unknown Table of Contents 1. Notes and Disclaimers 2. The History of Kicking 3. Fantasy Kicker Scoring Systems 4. How Many Points Do Kickers Score Each Year? 5. How Many Points Do Kickers Score Each Week? 6. Which Teams Are Scoring Kicking Points? 7. Top Kickers: Where Do They Come From and Where Do They Go? 8. Bonus Scorers 9. Consistent Scorers 10. Squandered Scoring Opportunities 11. Field Goal Opportunities 12. Accuracy 13. Attempts-Adjusted Accuracy, by guest freelance writer Andrew Brecher 14. The K-ball 15. Do Good Offenses Produce High Scoring Kickers? 16. Do Poor Red Zone Offenses Produce High Scoring Kickers? 17. Do Good Defenses Produce High Scoring Kickers? 18. Do Personnel Changes Impact Kicker Scoring? 19. Domes vs. Outdoor Stadiums 20. Grass vs. Synthetic Turfs 21. Profile of a Top Five Kicker 22. Profile of the Year Prior to Being Top Five 23. Drafting a Kicker 24. Buying a Kicker in an Auction 25. Dynasty Leagues, with guest FBG staff members Anderson, Grant, Tremblay & Pasquino 26. The Stadiums: Vital Statistics 27. The Stadiums: Kicking Results 28. Bibliography and Other Kicking Information Resources 1. Notes and Disclaimers A few notes and disclaimers: Analysis on season total statistics typically date back to 1990 Analysis on individual game statistics typically date back to 2001 Top 5 kicking numbers are highlighted in yellow, 6 th thru 10 th are highlighted in lime green More than one section of this article explores statistical correlations between kicking and other factors. Whether there is truly a cause and effect relationship for every one of these, we cannot be certain. Each reader will have to decide for themselves whether they feel a correlation is a relationship or just a statistical coincidence. The Complete Guide to Fantasy Kickology attempts to be a complete source on fantasy football kicking, although that is probably an impossible task. If you have any information to add, requests for additions, comments, or questions please contact Footballguys Department of Kickology by at herman@footballguys.com 2. The History of Kicking Timeline of kicking milestones and rule changes that impacted the kicking game: 1904 Field goal value was changed from five points to four 1909 Field goal value was changed from four points to three 1933 Goal posts were moved from the end lines to the goal lines, and inbounds lines or hashmarks where the ball would be put in play were placed 10 yards from the sidelines

2 1935 Hashmarks were moved nearer the center of the field, 15 yards from the sidelines 1943 Helmets became mandatory for all players 1944 Chicago Bears scored 258 points, second in the league that year, yet did not attempt a single FG 1945 Hashmarks were moved from 15 yards away from the sidelines to nearer the center of the field, 20 yards from the sidelines Pat Harder made nine PATs (3-way tie for most in one game) for Chicago Cardinals against NY Giants 1948 A flexible artificial tee was permitted on kickoffs 1950 Bob Waterfield made nine PATs (3-way tie for most in one game) for Los Angeles against Baltimore AFL included the option of the two-point conversion after touchdowns 1964 Buffalo signs Pete Gogolak, the first soccer style kicker 1966 Charlie Gogolak made nine PATs (3-way tie for most in one game) for Washington against NY Giants 1966 Bruce Gossett attempted 49 FGs (2-way tie for most in a season) for Los Angeles 1966 Goal posts offset from the goal line, painted bright yellow, and with uprights 20 feet above the cross-bar were made standard in the NFL "sling-shot" goal posts (with one curved support from the ground) were made standard in the NFL 1967 Jim Bakken attempted nine FGs (most in one game) and made seven (4-way tie) for St. Louis against Pittsburgh 1970 Tom Dempsey made a 63 yard FG (2-way tie for longest) for New Orleans against Detroit 1971 Curt Knight attempted 49 FGs (2-way tie for most in a season) for Washington 1972 Hashmarks were moved nearer the center of the field, 23 yards, 1 foot, 9 inches from the sidelines the hashmarks were now 18 feet, 6 inches apart (the same width as the goalposts), cutting down on severe angles for short field goal attempts 1974 The goal posts were moved from the goal line to the end lines and the uprights would be extended to 30 feet above the crossbar; kickoffs were moved from the 40 back to the 35-yard line; and after missed field goals from beyond the 20, the ball was to be returned to the line of scrimmage 1974 OL/K Lou Groza elected to Hall of Fame 1979 Prohibited players on the receiving team from blocking below the waist during kickoffs, punts, and field-goal attempts 1981 QB/K George Blanda elected to Hall of Fame 1983 Mark Mosely attempted 204 kicking points (probably the most in a season). His 161 points at the time was a record, although it is now third Ali Haji-Sheikh made 35 FGs (most by a rookie for the season) for NY Giants 1984 Uwe von Schamann attempted 70 PATs and was successful on 66 (most in a season) for Miami 1985 Kevin Butler scored 144 points (most in a season by a rookie) for Chicago 1989 Rich Karlis made seven FGs (4-way tie for most in one game) for Minnesota against LA Rams (OT) 1991 Jan Stenerud elected to Hall of Fame (only player that was solely a kicker) Jason Elam was successful on 371 straight PAT attempts (most consecutive) for Denver 1994 Added the option of the two-point conversion after touchdowns; the starting point of all kickoffs were moved back from the 35 to the 30-yard line; kickoff tees used can be no more than one inch in height (previously 3 inches); all field goals attempted and missed when the spot of the kick is beyond the 20 yard line, the defensive team taking possession will get the ball at the spot of the kick; on any field goal attempted and missed with the spot of the kick is on or inside the 20, the ball will go to the defensive team taking possession at the 20; and the 11 players on the receiving team are prohibited from blocking below the waste during a play in which there is a kickoff, safety kick, punt, field goal attempt or extra point kick with one exception, immediately at the snap on these plays those defenders on the line of scrimmage lined up on or inside the normal tight end position can block low 1995 Morten Andersen made eight 50+ yard FGs (most in a season) for Atlanta. Three were against New Orleans (2-way tie for most in one game) Chris Boniol made seven FGs (4-way tie for most in one game) for Dallas against Green Bay 1998 Gary Anderson was perfect on all 35 FGs. He scored 164 points (most in a season) Jason Elam made a 63 yard FG (2-way tie for longest) for Denver against Jacksonville 1999 K-ball implemented for all kicking plays in a game see separate section regarding the K-ball Matt Stover made at least one FG in 38 straight games (most consecutive games) for Baltimore 2000 Sebastian Janikowski becomes the fourth (fifth if you count the 1984 supplemental USFL draft) and most recent kicker to be drafted in the first round 2002 The chop-block technique is illegal on kicking plays; and after a kickoff, the game clock will start when the ball is touched legally in the field of play Mike Vanderjagt made was successful on 42 straight FG attempts (most consecutive) for Indianapolis 2003 Jeff Wilkins scored 163 points (second most in a season) for St. Louis 2003 Mike Vanderjagt was perfect on all 37 FGs. He scored 157 points (third most in a season) 2003 Billy Cundiff made seven FGs (4-way tie for most in one game) for Dallas vs. NY Giants (OT) 2004 Neil Rackers made three 50+ yard FGs (2-way tie for most in one game) for Arizona against Seattle

3 2005 Neil Rackers made 40 FGs (most in a season) for Arizona 3. Fantasy Kicker Scoring Systems With each passing year, the number of unique fantasy scoring systems increases. Most fall into the following basic categories for kicker scoring. STANDARD: straight-up scoring the same as in the real world. All field goals (FG) are worth three points. All pointsafter-touchdown (PAT), a.k.a. extra points, are worth one point. This is the most common scoring system. The stats and analysis in this guide are based on standard scoring, except where noted otherwise. BONUS: additional points are scored for longer FGs. Shorter FGs typically remain the same as standard, medium range FGs are worth a little more, and long FGs are worth even more. The numbers can be adjusted for a wide variety of variations. Example: FGs under 40 yards are worth three points, FGs from 40 to 49 yards are worth four points, and FGs of 50 or more yards are worth five points. PENALTY: points are deducted for missed kicks. Missed longer FGs typically are not penalized, medium range FG misses are a small deduction, and missed short FGs are worth a moderate deduction. The numbers can be adjusted for a wide variety of variations. The penalty approach can be used in conjunction with any other scoring system; however it is most commonly used in conjunction with bonus scoring. Example: Missed FGs under 30 yards are a two point deduction, missed FGs from 30 to 39 yards are a one point deduction, missed FGs of 40 or more yards are not penalized, and missed PATs are a one point deduction. DECIMAL: decimal scoring has become fairly common for many fantasy positions, although less so for kickers. Example: FGs are scored by multiplying the FG distance by 0.1 KICKER IMPORTANCE: the value of the kicker position is increased (or decreased) relative to other positions, by increasing (or decreasing) the points awarded for PATs and/or FGs. 4. How Many Points Do Kickers Score Each Year? ANNUAL TEAM KICKER SCORING (each year sorted from high to low) avg. total avg. ppg

4 The bold numbers in the end columns are the averages for the various tiers. At best, there's a difference of a couple points per game between a high scoring kicker and a mediocre kicker. Most weeks it probably doesn't matter. However, once or twice a year it could be the difference in your fantasy game. That game could be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. That game could be in the playoffs. Kickers may not matter as much as the other more glamorous positions in the majority of leagues, however they do matter just enough to not completely ignore them. 5. How Many Points Do Kickers Score Each Week? 2005 WEEKLY KICKER SCORING (each week sorted from high to low) average

5 Once again, the bold numbers in the end column are the averages for the various tiers. The differences in kicker scoring over the course of an entire year are modest, as seen in the preceding section. When we look at the range of kicker scoring in any given week in the NFL however, the variation becomes more substantial. In fantasy leagues where rules provide the ability to work the waiver wire on a weekly basis, or in contests where you can select a different kicker each week, there is a potential for greater reward from the kicker position. For those willing to take that leap, looking for high scoring kickers each week is discussed later in this guide in the Weekly Management section. 6. Which Teams Are Scoring Kicking Points? ANNUAL TEAM KICKER SCORING RANKINGS Ari Atl Bal Buf Car Chi Cin Cle Dal Den Det GB Hou Ind Jac KC Mia Min NE NO NYG NYJ Oak Phi Pit SD Sea SF Stl TB Ten

6 Was Some fundamental observations regarding the above chart: There is a significant amount of turnover at the top spots on a yearly basis, or conversely, sustaining kicker scoring success is very difficult. Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh have a decent streak going. Up until last year, so did Green Bay and Philadelphia. Right now, Denver is in a class all by itself. Never say never. Through 2004, only two non-expansion teams had never placed in the top ten during this period Arizona and the NY Giants. Last year they were the top two teams. 7. Top Kickers: Where Do They Come From and Where Do They Go? The following table shows where top five and top ten kicking teams ranked in the year prior and the year after. Year After Top 5 Kicking Year Before Year After 6 th 10 th Kicking Year Before 21% % 26% % 23% % 28% % 15% % 18% % 14% % 15% % 18% % 5% % 10% % 8% % A top five kicker could wind up just about anywhere the following year. Over half of the sixth thru tenth ranked kickers remain in the top ten the following year. Three-fifths of top five kickers come from the top fifteen the prior year. 8. Bonus Scorers BONUS POINTS SCORED ANNUALLY Kicker Avg/yr Edinger, Paul Elam, Jason Wilkins, Jeff Rackers, Neil Vanderjagt, Mike Akers, David Brown, Josh Janikowski, Sebastian Stover, Matt Kaeding, Nate Hanson, Jason Brown, Kris Bironas, Rob Carney, John Kasay, John Longwell, Ryan Feely, Jay Mare, Olindo

7 Nedney, Joe Reed, Jeff Scobee, Josh Graham, Shayne Hall, John Vinatieri, Adam Tynes, Lawrence Gramatica, Martin Lindell, Rian Nugent, Mike Dawson, Phil Cundiff, Billy Peterson, Todd Bryant, Matt Gould, Robbie Cortez, Jose Chandler, Jeff Novak, Nick The bonus points are in addition to the standard three points for a FG. Every successful FG from 40 to 49 yards is worth an additional point, and every 50+ yard FG is worth two additional points. Some notes regarding individuals near the top of the list: Mike Vanderjagt and Neil Rackers are heading in opposite directions In leagues that also penalize for misses, Paul Edinger s bonus points have typically been negated by numerous short range misses Jason Elam, David Akers, and Sebastian Janikowski have been fairly consistent in this category from year to year Matt Stover has done well in this category, despite the fact the Ravens have used a separate kickoff specialist on longer field goals the last several years 9. Consistent Scorers TEAM KICKING POINTS WEEKLY HIGHS AND LOWS ppg low high ppg low high ppg low high ppg low high ppg low high Ari Atl Bal Buf Car Chi Cin Cle Dal Den Det GB Hou Ind Jac

8 KC Mia Min NE NO NYG NYJ Oak Phi Pit SD Sea SF Stl TB Ten Was In certain fantasy leagues and competition formats, finding a kicker that has steady weekly production and that doesn t have a dud week (one or zero points) can be an important consideration. Unfortunately, over the course of a year, even most good players have an off week. The low columns above are highlighted with yellow for teams that scored four of five kicking points in their worst week of the year. Green highlighting indicates three kicking points in their worst week of the year. Over the past several years, Denver and Indianapolis have fared the best in that regard. 10. Squandered Scoring Opportunities ANNUAL TEAM MISSED KICKING POINTS Ari Atl Bal Buf Car Chi Cin Cle Dal Den Det GB Hou Ind Jac KC Mia Min NE NO NYG

9 NYJ Oak Phi Pit SD Sea SF Stl TB Ten Was In fantasy leagues that penalize for missed kicks, avoiding kickers that squander scoring opportunities is a very important consideration. Chicago and Jacksonville have the worst track record in recent years. The above graphic highlights just how bad of a year Sebastian Janikowski had last year The importance of Jeff Reed to the Steelers at Heinz Field can be seen The Buccaneers were happy with Matt Bryant following the demise of Martin Gramatica Baltimore, Cleveland, and the NY Giants have the best streaks going of not squandering lots of points, with Baltimore s being the most impressive since they tended to have more attempts 11. Field Goal Opportunities COMPARISON OF ATTEMPTED FIELD GOALS TO TOTAL KICKER SCORING 2005 pts 2004 pts 2003 pts 2002 pts 2001 pts 2000 pts 1999 pts FGA Arnk rnk FGA Arnk rnk FGA Arnk rnk FGA Arnk rnk FGA Arnk rnk FGA Arnk rnk FGA Arnk rnk

10 pts. top 5 FGA top 6-10 FGA top FGA top FGA top FGA bottom FGA rank total pct. total pct. total pct. total pct. total Pct. total pct % 18 23% 3 3% 3 4% 2 3% 1 2% % 26 33% 18 21% 12 15% 5 6% 0 0% % 18 23% 22 26% 14 17% 12 15% 7 12% % 8 10% 27 31% 24 29% 8 10% 6 10% % 9 11% 11 13% 17 21% 26 33% 14 23% % 1 1% 5 6% 12 15% 25 32% 32 53% It probably goes without saying that there is a strong correlation between number of field goal attempts and kicker scoring. But since this is the complete guide, we ll mention it anyway. The table above does highlight that there are always a couple exceptions to the rule. For example, the team that despite ranking only 27 th in number of field goal attempts last year, nonetheless ranked fifth in actual kicker scoring. How did they do it? Fifty-two extra points along with a very accurate kicker (Vanderjagt). 12. Accuracy COMPARISON OF ANNUAL FG% (ACCURACY) RANKING TO POINTS SCORED RANKINGS 2005 pts 2004 pts 2003 pts 2002 pts 2001 pts 2000 pts 1999 pts FG% %rnk rnk FG% %rnk rnk FG% %rnk rnk FG% %rnk rnk FG% %rnk rnk FG% %rnk rnk FG% %rnk rnk 95.6% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 21 5

11 76.5% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Rank total avg. total avg. total avg. total avg. total avg. total avg % 15 44% 12 19% 5 12% 1 3% 2 6% % 10 29% 11 18% 4 10% 4 11% 2 6% % 4 12% 11 18% 8 19% 6 16% 1 3% % 2 6% 11 18% 11 26% 7 19% 1 3% % 3 9% 10 16% 9 21% 5 14% 5 16% % 0 0% 7 11% 5 12% 14 38% 20 65% Similar to number of field goals attempted, there is an obvious correlation between field goal accuracy and kicking points scored, although the correlation is not quite as strong. The best way to be a top ten scorer is to have a field goal percentage in the upper 80 s. Kickers down at the low end of the accuracy range are almost assured of not scoring many points. 13. Attempts-Adjusted Accuracy (AAA) Section by guest freelance writer Andrew Brecher The problem with standard accuracy percentage is that it does not differentiate between short and long FGs. Suppose Kicker A makes 18 of 20 FGs (90%), while Kicker B makes 21 of 24 FGS (87.5%). Is it possible that Kicker B is really more accurate? Yes! Suppose Kicker A's attempts are under 45 yards. He's good at the short distances, but the coach won't send him out for long FGs. Kicker B has the same 20 short attempts, but also has four attempts over 45 yards, making 19 of 20 at short distances and making 2 of 4 at long distance. He's got better accuracy than Kicker A at the same FGs, and his strong leg earns him the opportunity to kick longer FGs. But guess what -- the extra kicks only drag down his accuracy percentage. Kicker B is the better kicker, but you wouldn't know it from percentages; you need a deeper look. The solution: Attempts-Adjusted Accuracy, or AAA. By adjusting for the extra attempts that good kickers get to make, and the short range misses by bad kickers, you get a better picture of a kicker's actual talent. The table below uses kicking stats from the last five years. It takes a kickers accuracy under 40 yards -- kicks that every kicker should be expected to make -- but adjusts the accuracy over 40 yards based on the relative number of attempts at that distance. The AAA rating then takes the weighted average of the under-40 and over-40 numbers using a two-to-one ratio. One thing that this approach cannot adjust for is bad weather. For kickers moving to a dome team, like Vinatieri and Longwell in 2006, you may want to add points. Similarly, you may want to subtract points for players moving to an outdoor northern stadium, such as Cundiff and Gramatica in AAA Kicker 1-39 made 1-39 att 1-39 pct made 50+ att total FGM total FGA 83.3% Elam, Jason % % 82.3% Nedney, Joe % % Pct

12 81.9% Akers, David % % 81.6% Kasay, John % % 81.5% Hanson, Jason % % 81.5% Kaeding, Nate % % 80.7% Vanderjagt, Mike % % 79.8% Brown, Josh % % 79.7% Janikowski, Sebastian % % 79.2% Stover, Matt % % 79.2% Wilkins, Jeff % % 77.6% Rackers, Neil % % 77.5% Edinger, Paul % % 77.5% Graham, Shayne % % 77.1% Nugent, Mike % % 76.6% Hall, John % % 76.5% Bironas, Rob % % 74.6% Vinatieri, Adam % % 74.3% Reed, Jeff % % 74.0% Carney, John % % 73.9% Longwell, Ryan % % 73.3% Cundiff, Billy % % 73.3% Tynes, Lawrence % % 72.0% Brown, Kris % % 71.3% Mare, Olindo % % 71.1% Scobee, Josh % % 70.3% Feely, Jay % % 70.2% Dawson, Phil % % 69.5% Lindell, Rian % % 68.8% Chandler, Jeff % % 68.4% Gould, Robbie % % 68.0% Bryant, Matt % % 67.6% Gramatica, Martin % % 67.5% Peterson, Todd % % 63.9% Cortez, Jose % % 55.6% Novak, Nick % % 14. The K-ball The K-ball rule was implemented in 1999, and ensures that all kicking plays in games will use a brand new ball, rather than one that has been broken in or possibly tampered with. They are the same regulation size, shape, and weight as all other balls. From the NFL Rules: The home club shall have 36 balls for outdoor games and 24 for indoor games available for testing with a pressure gauge by the referee two hours prior to the starting time of the game to meet with League requirements. Twelve (12) new footballs, sealed in a special box and shipped by the manufacturer, will be opened in the officials locker room two hours prior to the starting time of the game. These balls are to be specially marked with the letter "K" and used exclusively for the kicking game. During Footballguys interview with veteran kicker Ryan Longwell, he discussed the K-ball s impact: FBG: You ve been around long enough that you were kicking before they introduced the K-ball. Does it really make as much difference as we re led to believe?

13 Longwell: Yea, it s a huge difference. I always use the example: it s the equivalent of going out to short stop and having someone hit you ground balls while wearing a broken in baseball glove, and then giving you a brand new glove right of the rack and taking the same ground balls. The leather s just harder; it s not as flexible. When you re kicking something like that, it doesn t fly as far. A broken in football gets some moisture in the leather, so there s a little more weight to it, so it can cut through wind and fly a little farther. The K-ball was a big difference. I think that s why you see, over the seven or eight years it s been in the league, that a lot more of the teams are going with veteran kickers and proven guys that can hit the ball solid, than a lot more of the young guys with big legs. Because the big leg doesn t necessarily translate into accuracy with the new K- ball like it did with the old broken in balls. FBG: How do you practice for the K-ball... do you bring out a new ball regularly in practice? Longwell: We get brand new balls basically every week. I don t think we kick enough to break them in totally over the course of a week. We ll always use brand new balls. It s changed probably more for the equipment guys around the league than it has for anybody else, because they re probably going through a lot more rotatings. It s just a factor that when I first got in the league it wasn t there and then they changed it. It s something you ve got to deal with. FBG: some kickers with strong legs fare better on field goals than kickoffs, and some vise-versa. What are the technique differences between kickoffs vs. placekicking? Longwell: I think they re both very unique. Field goals are much more precise than kicking off, meaning that you re probably not going to be as successful swinging 100% at a field goal as you will be swinging at 85% or 90%. It s very similar to what they say on the golf course; what the pros say about swinging a golf club. Kicking off, however, is basically about how much power you can put into the ball without over-kicking it. So they re two different things. Like I said, with the new K-balls you re not seeing the guys who are just pounding the ball eight to ten yards deep. I think that s why you re seeing a lot more kickers that are great field goal kickers and good kickoff guys, instead of the kickoff specialists with big legs because there s just not that big a difference anymore with the K-ball. During Footballguys interview with veteran kicker Jay Feely, FBG: One of the adjustments from college [Michigan] to the NFL was the new K-balls used in each game. Does it really make as much difference as we re led to believe? Feely: Yes, it does. The interesting thing is that you can get a good K-ball or a bad K-ball. A k-ball is not a different ball in anyway than the regular game ball; it s just a ball that has not been broken in. The balls the quarterbacks use, they ll take them down, they ll rub them, they ll break them in, and use them throughout the week to have them not be so new. The K-balls are brand new right out of the box. You re not allowed to do anything to them. You re not allowed to kick them at all before the game. You can get a good new ball, or a bad new ball. The difference between a good new ball and a bad new ball is probably about ten yards on a kickoff or a field goal. If you get a bad ball when you go to kickoff, I ll even tell our guys on our kickoff team, Hey it s a bad ball, be ready for a short kick. Because I know regardless of how well I kick it, it s not gonna come down probably any deeper than the ten yard line. FBG: Can you tell when you hold the ball, or do you actually have to kick it to find out? Feely: You can tell when you hold it. You can tell by feeling it, because the seams ridge up. The ends, which are supposed to be round, are kind of square. The difference between a nubby ball and a smooth ball, the nubby balls are bad balls that are not going to go as far. The smooth balls, the way they re supposed to be, they going to go a lot farther. The effect of the K-ball on fantasy football can be seen on rookies or players new to the NFL coming from some other league. Many have difficulty adjusting to the ball. The statistics regarding their accuracy and range in college or in another league often have no bearing on how they will perform in the NFL. The K-ball may also lead to a significant drop in their effectiveness on kickoffs. That doesn t matter during the regular season for fantasy players (unless your fantasy league incorporates kickoffs in its scoring); however it can be a factor for kickers competing for a job in the pre-season. 15. Do Good Offenses Produce High Scoring Kickers? KICKER SCORING RANK COMPARED TO OFFENSIVE SCORING AND YARDAGE RANKS rnk O-pt O-yd O rnk O-pt O-yd O rnk O-pt O-yd O rnk O-pt O-yd O rnk O-pt O-yd O

14 (10) (4) (5) (4) (2) (1) (12) (5) (3) (4) (4) (3) (4) (1) (2) (1) (2) (3) (1) (3) (5) (2) (5) (12) (1) (2) (8) (5) (15) (4) (10) (1) (3) (5) (12) (6) (6) (5) (4) (2) (3) (2) (6) (7) (14) (11) (8) (12) (3) (13) (4) (1) (2) (6) (11) (6) (10) (11) (5) (4) (1) (2) (2) (14) (5) (7) (8) (2) (2) (3) (12) (1) (6) (3) Top 5 Kickers Top 6-10 Kickers rnk O-pt O-yd rnk O-pt O-yd % 31 36% % 24 30% % 22 26% % 18 23% % 11 13% % 11 14% % 8 9% % 12 15% % 13 15% % 10 13% % 1 1% % 4 5% The numbers in the lower two tables date back to They confirm what most of us already suspected. There appears to be a strong correlation between kicker scoring and offensive rankings. 76% of top five kickers came from top ten scoring offenses, while 53% came from top ten yardage offenses. 16. Do Poor Red Zone Offenses Produce High Scoring Kickers? K-rnk trips RZ% TD FG nil K-rnk trips RZ% TD FG nil K-rnk trips RZ% TD FG nil Ari % % %

15 Atl % % % Bal % % % Buf % % % Car % % % Chi % % % Cin % % % Cle % % % Dal % % % Den % % % Det % % % GB % % % Hou % % % Ind % % % Jac % % % KC % % % Mia % % % Min % % % NE % % % NO % % % NYG % % % NYJ % % % Oak % % % Phi % % % Pit % % % SD % % % Sea % % % SF % % % Stl % % % TB % % % Ten % % % Was % % % Top 5 Kickers Top 6-10 Kickers Quan RZ% Quan RZ% 0 75%+ 5 75% % % % % % % % % % %- A common assumption is that poor red zone offenses are good sources for kicker scoring, since the team would be scoring more field goals than touchdowns. The numbers do not support that. More top ten kickers tend to come from average to slightly above average red zone teams. 17. Do Good Defenses Produce High Scoring Kickers? KICKER SCORING RANK COMPARED TO DEFENSIVE SCORING AND YARDAGE RANKS rnk D-pt D-yd D rnk D-pt D-yd D rnk D-pt D-yd D rnk D-pt D-yd D rnk D-pt D-yd D

16 (18) (4) (6) (10) (2) (12) (2) (1) (2) (2) (2) (2) (7) (6) (4) (1) (6) (9) (6) (10) (5) (2) (4) (12) (8) (1) (1) (10) (2) (1) (4) (9) (1) (1) (5) (6) (4) (1) (6) (3) (10) (4) (7) (4) (10) (14) (11) (12) (2) (8) (18) (3) (17) (4) (12) (15) (13) (2) (4) (8) (11) (8) (3) (3) (4) (3) (2) (1) (8) Top 5 Kickers Top 6-10 Kickers rnk D-pt D-yd rnk D-pt D-yd % 23 26% % 16 20% % 20 23% % 15 19% % 18 21% % 15 19% % 7 8% % 14 18% % 10 11% % 11 14% % 9 10% % 9 11% The numbers in the lower two tables date back to There appears to be a slight correlation between kicker scoring and defensive rankings. 44% of top five kickers came from top ten scoring defenses, while 43% came from top ten yardage defenses. 18. Do Personnel Changes Impact Kicker Scoring? A common assumption is that a team is more likely to succeed if there is continuity in their players and personnel from one year to the next. Does that also apply to kicker scoring? The following table looks at turnover since 1990 for three key positions: the kicker himself, the head coach, and the quarterback. The total column is the yearly

17 turnover percentage for the entire NFL during that span at that position. The last two columns are the turnover for teams that end up in the top ten in kicker scoring in that year. In all cases, the turnover in teams that ended up in the top ten in kicker scoring was less than the NFL average. That is even truer for teams that ended up in the top five. total top 5 K top 6-10 K K 25.2% 18.4% 20.3% HC 22.2% 11.5% 20.3% QB 37.0% 24.1% 26.6% There are two other important personnel changes to watch which relate to kickers. The first involves the two other players that are most directly involved in placekicking: the longsnapper and the holder. These two along with the kicker need to develop a precise rhythm for the snapping-holding-kicking process. That development can take weeks, more likely months, and possibly even years to reach full effect. When one or more of those three players changes, the learning process starts over. It s not unheard of for the decline in numbers by a normally reliable and productive kicker to be partially or significantly attributed to working with a new holder. The other important change of personnel to watch is the entire offensive line. Much like the three players involved on a kick, the five players on the offensive line need time working together to develop into a cohesive effective unit. If they haven t then the entire offense can be hindered, which then limits scoring opportunities for the kicker. A top five kicker from the previous year could look like he would be strong bet to repeat that performance. If his team s offensive is breaking in a new rookie or two, and/or a new free agent or two, and/or shifting players within the line to a different position, then the repeat performance may be highly unlikely. The impact of the last two personnel change categories are fairly simple and straight forward, however they are often overlooked factors. Paying attention to these changes during the off-season, pre-season, and during the regular season if they occur, can help identify kickers that are more likely to under-perform. 19. Domes vs. Outdoor Stadiums During discussions on drafting kickers, someone usually suggests to draft a kicker from a team with a domed stadium. Sounds reasonable. At least half their games will be indoors, without interference from Mother Nature. Do kickers actually perform better indoors, or is it just a kickers' wives' tale? DOMES vs. OUTDOORS vs. RETRACTABLE ROOF STADIUMS FG Total FG 1-19 FG FG FG FG 50+ POINTS Stadium md att avg md att md att md att md att md att XPm XPa Total ppg Dome visitors Dome Home Dome total Outdoors visitors Outdoors home Outdoors total Retractable visitors Retractable home % % % % % % , % %