Copyright 2018 For the Lead and SartinMethodology.com Compiled by Bill Lyster

Size: px

Start display at page:

Melvyn Jenkins
6 years ago
Views:

If you think it is hard for a 3 year old to win the 3 year old Triple Crown, (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont), there is another Triple Crown that is even harder, the Handicap Triple Crown.

1 If you think it is hard for a 3 year old to win the 3 year old Triple Crown, (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont), there is another Triple Crown that is even harder, the Handicap Triple Crown. Only four horses have accomplished this feat, Whisk Broom (1913), Tom Fool (1953), Kelso (1961) and Fit To Fight (1984). All three races are run in New York. The races are the Metropolitan Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap and the Suburban Handicap. Although the Metropolitan Handicap is commonly known as The Met Mile, take notice that all three races are HANDICAP races. What does this mean? Before I go on, I understand that weight plays no part in the methodology, neither does weight play any part in my own day to day handicapping, however, weight does play a part in handicap races at any level. Let s start with the 3 year old triple crown races. They are all run on the basis of weight for age, which means three year olds all carry 126 pounds. By contrast, in the handicap triple crown races, the racing secretary assigns the weight to be carried by each horse. The best horses in the racing secretary s opinion carry the most weight. Those horses that the racing secretary considers lesser horses carry less weight. It is possible to see one horse carrying 140 pounds and another horse carrying 110 pounds, in the same race. So what does all this mean? The winner of a handicap race, at any level, generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. As with everything else in horse racing, nothing is 100%, however this little piece of information is a good starting point in handicap races. Just so you don t have to go look it up, there were two horses in today s Metropolitan Handicap that were tied for the high weight. They ran first and third. Here are the entries. 1

today. Here are the entries for those races.

2 Now I mentioned this applies to handicap races at any level. As it so happens, there were two nondescript handicap races at PARX today. Here are the entries for those races. The winner is circled in red. The #7 won race six, paying $3.00 and the #4 won race nine, paying $

3 Here is another HANDICAP race at PARX. The high weight won the race. Here are the entries for the race, including the weight assignment for each horse. The #6 won the race and paid $

A race does NOT have to be a GRADED race in order to be a handicap race. The previous examples from PARX are evidence that low level races can also be handicap races.

4 The Sandy Blue Handicap was run at Delmar on 8/15/13 and was won by the highweight, Sarach, at $8.20. Starter Handicaps Whenever you see a GRADED race, it might be a "HANDICAP" race and it might not be a handicap race. Reading the conditions will provide the answer. A race does NOT have to be a GRADED race in order to be a handicap race. The previous examples from PARX are evidence that low level races can also be handicap races. An important point here is not to confuse a "Starter Allowance" with a "Starter HANDICAP". They are two different races. A Starter Allowance is weight for age with allowances for performance. A Starter Handicap has no allowances and the weight is assigned by the racing secretary. Below are 4

examples of each condition. The conditions start out looking very similar, but the similarity ends quickly. Let's look at a Starter Allowance race first. Now let's look at a Starter Handicap race.

5 examples of each condition. The conditions start out looking very similar, but the similarity ends quickly. Let's look at a Starter Allowance race first. Now let's look at a Starter Handicap race. Penn National - June 1st I don't think Penn National is a track that most people follow, but this past Saturday night it presented the best card they have ever put on in the history of the track. That is NOT my opinion. It is a fact as presented by the track itself. They presented 5 STAKES races and 2 HANDICAP races as part of their 9 race program. One stakes race carried a purse of $500,000, The LARGEST purse ever presented in the history of the track, but it is the 2 HANDICAP races I want to focus on. I started this thread with some, what I hope to b helpful, information with regard to handicap races. In light of that, I feel compelled to expand on that information as all handicap races are not straight forward. In other words, not every handicap race has three horses that are "different" weights and are the top three weights in the race, such as, 123, 121, 119. Sometimes there are multiple horses carrying the same high weight or second high weight or even 3rd high weight. The second race at Penn National Saturday night was one such race. Below you will see that chart of this race. If you look at the weights, the top three high weights encompass the ENTIRE FIELD. 5 horses came in carrying 122lbs. 4 horses came in carrying 119lbs. And the remaining horse came in carrying 118lbs. This is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weighted horses as your primary, or only, contenders. 5

6 6

7 The 3rd race at Penn National Saturday night was the other handicap race on the card. Again, this is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weight horses as your primary, or only, contenders. Why? 2 horses came in carrying 117lbs. 3 horses came in carrying 116lbs. 2 horses came in carrying 115lbs. That covers the top 3 high weights, but it also covers every horse in the race except for 1. Here's the chart of that race. The point I am making here is, don't take the information I set forth at the outset of this thread and think that it applies to all handicap races regardless of how many horses are included in that top 3 weights like the ones I have discussed here. It doesn't! I would constrict the number of horses to the basic "3" highweights or perhaps "4". 7

There was also a "Starter Handicap" at Monmouth today (8-18-13). The co-highweight won and paid $9.40.

8 There was also a "Starter Handicap" at Monmouth today ( ). The co-highweight won and paid $9.40. While not an ideal race as far as the high weights are concerned, it still demonstrated the basic point...much consideration should be given to the high weighted horses in handicap races. As I have posted previously, the ideal situation is where there are 3 clear cut top weighted horses, possibly 4. In this race there were 2 horses that shared the top weight...3 horses that shared the second top weight...and 1 horse that came in with the third top weight. Even though 6 horses made up the three top weights, one of the co-high weights got the job done at $22.60! 8

9 Naturally anyone can take this basic information and run with it anyway they see fit, but I have outlined the best way to approach these races. The idea is not to play the highweight, but to use the top 3 (or 4) highweights and handicap from there. The highweighted horse will win their fair share of these races, but the 2nd and 3rd highweights are also viable contenders. In the race being discussed, if you took all the horses that made up the top three highweights (not the race shown above), you would have too many contenders, which defeats the purpose. You want to narrow the field to as few horses as possible. 9

Parx Handicap, Race 8, 07.02.13 On July 2nd in the 8th race at PARX there was a GR3 Handicap race. The original thread and discussion on this race can be found here...http://paceandcap.

10 Parx Handicap, Race 8, On July 2nd in the 8th race at PARX there was a GR3 Handicap race. The original thread and discussion on this race can be found here... What got me thinking about writing this post were comments made in the final post in that discussion. It seemed to me that the writer of those comments sort of "gave up" with respect to the winner, so I thought I would go over the winner as there are a couple of points to be made. First, line selection. In the winners 10 races showing in the PP s, 9 of them are in GR1, GR2 or GR3 races, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile where it got beat by 4 lengths. The horse was off for 197 days and returned to the races 30 days ago in an Optional Claiming race. One of the "qualifiers" for a (+) race is where a horse makes a middle move to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the 2nd call. This horse did that. There was nothing dramatic about the move. It only gained 1 position and ½ a length to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the 2nd call, nevertheless, it fits the bill. This is a (+) race even if the horse weakens down the stretch. In this case the horse DID NOT weaken. It finished 1 ¾ lengths behind at the finish, running 4th. Here is the winning horse. Now, what I really want to point out is, all trainers do not follow the same pattern or procedure in bringing their horse(s) back from a layoff. It is common for a trainer who is bringing a stakes horse back to the races after a lengthy layoff to look for an Allowance race to use as a prep race. In this case the trainer used an Optional Claiming race. It s basically the same thing as an Allowance race. The horse can t be claimed unless the trainer enters it to be claimed and it is run under Allowance type conditions. The other thing to understand is, when the trainer entered this horse in that Optional Claiming race, 10

he was looking ahead. He knew this GR3 Handicap race was coming up. All he wanted in that Optional Claiming race was a prep. He didn t care if the horse won it or not.

11 he was looking ahead. He knew this GR3 Handicap race was coming up. All he wanted in that Optional Claiming race was a prep. He didn t care if the horse won it or not. More important to him, was how sound the horse was and where the horse was in its conditioning. The prep race answers these questions for him. One other thing I wanted to mention is, I like the original screen in RDSS. Based on the lines selected, it gives you a look at each contenders running style. It s kind of a preview of how the race should run. You see the early horses, pressers and closers. Like everything else in horse racing, nothing is 100%, but it is interesting to look at the original screen and then compare it to the chart of the race. I ve done that below so you can see how it works. See what I mean by interesting? I think this helps improve line selection. Some of you who want to learn the "match up" can use this as a start. Obviously you only want to use the "contenders", not the entire field. 11

12 The Cigar Mile Handicap I have posted the entries and result chart for this race. After looking at these, I suggest you click on the following link and read that thread. 12

13 I have to make a correction. The "highweight" in a handicap race is NOT my sole contender. The TOP 3 highweights are my contenders. Here's my thread on that subject. 13

14 Here are the entries for the Gravesend Handicap with ML info, won by Strapping Groom at $5.40. One More Handicap Race Here is another HANDICAP race from over 4 years ago. Some things just never change. The race in the spotlight was the Cougar HANDICAP run at Delmar on July 26, 2013 won by Richard s Kid who paid $ Yes. The winner fit the guidelines shown in the previously mentioned post. 14

April 2011, Number 61 ALL-WAYS TM NEWSLETTER

April 2011, Number 61 ALL-WAYS TM NEWSLETTER Inside This Newsletter Handicapping the Triple Crown Races Handicapping the Full Race Cards on Triple Crown Saturdays Announcements Special Help for Handicapping