Odds that guarantee value and mean easy profit for punters who take advantage.

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2 Welcome Welcome to Issue 3 of On Course Profits magazine. This month we have an in depth article from Michael Wilding of Race Advisor on how to build robust systems that will make you strong profits and continue to make profits long after most systems created by traditional methods have failed and turned into losers. We have our usual Bonus Scalping article which takes readers further down the path of exploiting bookmakers offers and our Monthly Method this month looks at a simple no form no study way to profit from the in built maths of bookmakers each way terms. The fact is that bookmakers are locked into offering great odds on some horses to place. Odds that guarantee value and mean easy profit for punters who take advantage. We also have our usual Product Reviews and Tipster Top Ten as well as details of a novel betting coup that took the bookies for a six figure profit. If you haven't yet given this magazine/app a review on the Apple App Store or in Google Play we'd really appreciate it of you took a moment to rate us, and you can do that by (clicking here). Finally before I let you get on to read the content I have for you, I just want to mention a special edition that should be displayed within your On Course Profits app.

3 We've had a lot of positive feedback from various sources about the excellent article that Nick Hardman has written for us, these articles have been a source of a lot of winners and we have had requests for more information on the methods that Nick uses to find big priced winners of the major races. The methods themselves are pretty straightforward and well within the scope and skill set of the average reader. The Special Edition that we have published details Nick's Race Trends methods. Nick has been able to tip up some huge winners in recent months using these methods including Emporor's Choice who was backed in from 25/1 when winning the Welsh National at 9/1. Other big winners include Bronze Angel in the Cambridgeshire at 14/1, Mutual Regard who won the Ebor at 20/1 and a one two in the King George Chase. If you want to learn to find these bets yourself then full instructions are in the Race Trends special edition priced at just I hope you enjoy this months issue. All the best Darren Power 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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5 Betting Systems and How To Build Them Probably the most common form of finding selections is to build a betting system. Which makes sense. After all, once the system has been built it will take anywhere from a few minutes to a few seconds (if you re using a system builder) to find selections. But, building a betting system isn t as easy as it sounds. Okay it is but it isn t so easy to build a profitable one. Traditional system builders are pretty easy to use. They don t really need a manual because they work using what is known as AND, IF, OR, THEN statements, which I ll call AIORT system builders from now on. Using these statements you then make rules such as: IF the Race Type is All Weather AND the Course is Wolverhampton AND there are 12 Runners or Less AND (the Horse was in the Top 3 Last Time Out OR is Racing for the First Time after a 30 Day Break) THEN the horse becomes a selection. There will usually also be some date ranges in there as well. I m sure that you re already very familiar with this kind of betting system and betting system builder.

6 So before we move on let s look at some of the things that we want from our system builder: 1. The ability to make profitable betting systems. 2. Automatically finding of selections. 3. To prevent over-fitting. 4. For the systems to continue making profits for a long period of time. The AIORT system builders definitely have the ability to work for the first two of the above, but for three and four they re not so effective, and that s just the beginning of some of the concerns. Let s start with number three. AIORT system builders are, simply, not designed to prevent over-fitting. In fact over-fitting is probably the number one cause of a betting system made in them from failing when it s made live. Over-fitting is where you build the rules for your betting system too closely based on the exact historical data that you re using to check the results. This results in the creation of a betting system that works very effectively on the data that you re building it on but...when you start using your betting system live it doesn t work so well, or even at all. Because it s been built to make a profit on the data used to build it not to make a profit when going live. Looking at the number four from above we discover one of the other flaws in the AIORT system builders. Betting systems that do make a profit don t generally continue to make a profit for very long. And there are two main reasons for this. The first is that the information is easily attainable by the general public. Take the system rule example at the beginning of this article. If this was a profitable system then you could work out that these selections might be profitable without a system builder. Of course, it would take a lot longer to work out the rules but ultimately they re not particularly difficult to figure out and the market is going to be taking into account a lot, if not all, of that information. And of course, if the market can take something into account easily then the edge you can gain is only ever going to be small.

7 When you have a small edge on your bets it only takes a small change in the markets for this positive edge to become negative. Which is why you may have made betting systems in the past that have only generated profits for a few months before they seem to stop working for no reason. With that in mind I d like to propose something a bit different. That it would make sense to learn to build betting systems in slightly different way. A way that may take a bit longer to build a profitable betting system but when you do you will have a betting system that will work live, will make profits for a long time and will give you a big edge against the market. Instead of using an approach to building betting systems that everyone assumes is the only way, look at how some of the major betting teams are building their systems and replicate it. After all, they re making profits into the hundreds of millions a year and employ some of the best sports statisticians in the world, so they know what they re doing. So how do you do this? We need to look at the problems that AIORT betting systems have and how we can prevent them from happening. The biggest causes of the problems we mentioned above, and one that isn t often recognised, is that comparisons between different factors cannot be made easily. When you choose the factors that you re going to put into your betting system you need to be able to compare them to see how they perform. But how do you compare Days Since Last Run with the Official Rating to determine if one is better to use than another? Or how do you compare the Official Rating with a Speed Rating? They use different numerical scales and 1 point in each is going to mean something slightly different. And that means they can t be directly compared. In order to fix that we need to find a way to put any factor, whether a rating or information such as days since last race, on to the same numerical scale so that they can be directly compared. The easiest way to do this is to use something known as Impact Values. An impact value tells you how much of an impact your factor will have on a horse's chance of winning.

8 The sum to calculate this is simply: Wins divided by Expected Wins You could do this for all horses that are first ranked for the Official Rating, for example. If the result of your calculation is 1 then it means that your chosen factor isn t making an impact on the chances of a horse to win. If the result of your calculation is less than 1 then it means that your chosen factor indicates horses that win less often than they should do, a negative impact on a horse's chance of winning. If the result of your calculation is more than 1 then it means that your chosen factor indicates horses that win more often than they should do, a positive impact on a horse's chance of winning. This means that if the impact value is 1.20 then we are 0.20 higher than 1 and is indicating that the horses with this factor have a positive impact on the horses chance of winning. What s even more helpful is that the amount higher than one, 0.20, can be converted directly into a percentage e.g. 20% So, these horses win 20% more often than expected. The same works for horses with less than 1, for example This is 0.25 less than 1 which indicates these horses win 25% less often than expected By using impact values we can put every factor on the same scale and directly compare them with each other. Next we need to prevent our betting systems from becoming over-fitted. AIORT system builders allow you to choose a date range and build your system on the data from it. The problem with building a betting system this way is that every rule you make you re seeing the results for the same data and increasing the chances of over-fitting and your system not working when you make it live. What you want to do is to use different data every time you make a new rule. And this is how you do it If you re building your betting system on data from 2012 to 2014 then first of all take 40% of it and put it to one side. You re going to need this when you ve finished building your betting system to test it on. You MUST test your betting system on data that wasn t used in the building of it to make sure that it s going to continue to perform when you re live.

9 With the remaining 60% of the data you should take 60% of it and then analyse the data and create your first rule. But don t just take the first 60%, take a random 60%. If you imagine your data is in a table in time order and each row is a horse in a race, then you want to take a random 60% of the rows to analyse. Once you ve made your first system rule, you take a new random 60% of the rows and analyse the data to make your second system rule. Doing this means that every time you analyse the data and create a new rule you are doing it on a completely different set of data. In statistical circles this is known as bootstrapping and is the most effective way to prevent over-fitting when you build your betting systems. So far we ve changed the way we build betting systems to allow us to directly compare our factors and prevent over-fitting. Not bad. But now I want to look at the process used when building the betting system. Traditionally you ve probably looked for factors that make a profit or have a high strike rate. Which makes sense, but it s not optimal. Because you re jumping to the last step of building profitable betting systems. You should be going through four stages when you build your betting systems and these are: 1. Choosing a Race Niche 2. Finding Eliminations 3. Discovering Contenders 4. How to Place Your Bets In Step 1 you are choosing a race niche, this is very important because different factors will perform differently in different race niches. For example we would expect a speed factor to be far more important in a sprint race than a long distance race. After you ve chosen your racing niche, the next step is to look for the eliminations. These are the horses that perform poorly in your racing niche. We want to remove these horses so we don t waste our time looking at horses that perform poorly.

10 And once they ve been removed we can now focus on the horses that are left, the horses that have the potential to contend in the race. From these horses we then want to discover which horses are going to be the Contenders, which horses are the strongest from the remaining runners. But we still haven t considered the profit yet. Horse being strong contenders and allowing us to make profit when we bet on them are two different things. Quite often the strongest horses in the race are not profitable to bet because the market also knows they re strong and so the odds do not offer any value. But in the third step of our system building we are focusing purely on the horses that are going to be strong runners. Once we have the strongest runners in our race niche, now we can determine whether it s profitable to bet on them. These are the same steps that a lot of the major betting teams and most profitable bettors use to build their betting systems. Of course, every approach has its upsides and its downsides. The downsides of using this approach are: It s probably a new approach for you, and that means that there will be a learning curve. You ll need to get used to the new method. It can take longer to build a profitable betting system in your system builder. But the benefits are huge Your betting systems will make a profit when you use them live. Your betting systems will continue to make profit for a long time into the future. Your betting systems will have a significantly larger edge. If you re going to spend the time building profitable betting systems then you want to build ones that are going to make you a profit when you actually use them, and continue to do so for a long time. Start putting these steps into practice and I guarantee that you will see the difference straight away Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

11 Advertisement Get Your Free Tips Now! Enter your details in the form below and Click the SUBMIT button.

12 Product Reviews Welcome back Three new systems to review this month and of course an update on those under current review. Fallers and Failures Cost Currently per month or quarterly / annually.

13 This is a horse racing lay service from the Stark Investors stable which commenced its operation at the beginning of July last year and had reportedly not made less than 20 points profit a month. Sadly our trial so far suggests different. The Trial Since the start of the trial on the 2nd December there have been 24 selections, of which 17 were successful lays. Seven of the unsuccessful lays were at Betfair Starting Prices of between 2.10 and 5.70, with an average starting price of Our profit to date is just 0.85 of a point. We have had a longest successful series of lays of 11 and a longest run of losing lays of 4 so far since our trial started. We will continue to monitor and report back next month. Conclusion The jury s out. If you would like to find out more about Fallers and Failures Click Here Exchange Profits Cost Currently per month or quarterly. First month 25.00) This system reports to have been in operation for nearly a year with no losing months which would certainly be a welcome addition to anyone s betting portfolio. The author is the anonymous Barking Dog. The method selects horses either to back to win or each way, either in singles or in multiples, or to lay at advised staked of between 1 to 10 points. The available odds and selections are sent by daily.

14 The Trial The trial started at the beginning on 1st December and all started well, however a maximum stake lay at odds of wiped out the profits earned to date and the loss was too much to recover from. Overall there were 78 bets, 17 of which were lays. 14 of the lays were successful but overall showed a net loss of 70 points. The 61 back bets lost 45 points for a total loss of 115 points. Conclusion The jury s out. To find out more about Exchange Profits Click Here Value Racing Cost Currently per month or quarterly. Lifetime Membership available for (First month 4.95) This service comes from the Betting Gods. They state that they do not back any odds on shots or favourites, just good value overlooked selections. The selections are given the evening before race day with advertised bookmaker prices. The Trial We have been trialling this since the 8th September and wanted to see if it could deliver over the longer term. Since the start of the trial there have been 290 selections of which 64 won, so a strike rate of 22% and a profit of points.

15 With an ROI of 9.09% it appears positive, however it is important to note that with the bets being given out with advised prices the night before, had you backed at Starting Prices you would have made a loss of around 15 points over the period. So getting on at the advised prices may prove difficult if you are not furnished with a good range of book makers accounts. We feel that over the period you would realistically have been lucky to have broken even, and therefore this is not one for us. Conclusion Not Recommended To find out more about Value Racing Click Here Systems Updates Pro Betting Club We highlighted the problems with this service last month and the loss has gone from points to a loss of points with a further losing run of four bets. These results clearly highlight the serious damage a loss recovery system combined with betting at odds on can do to your betting bank. This is definitely one to avoid in our opinion. If you are interested in investigating further - Click Here Steve Good Racing Last month we told you that this service is often advertised with claims of up to 100 points profit every month but with no explanation of the staking plan. The people who run the service have now decided to limit the staking to a 1-5 point band.

16 This month the service has produced a profit of 76 points from 55 winning and 221 selections which at face value sounds excellent, however with on average 8 bets a day and a daily outlay of 35 points the average ROI is only 4.43%. When we take into account the cost of the service the headline profit doesn t look quite so attractive. Clearly many professional gamblers will work based on a large turnover and a low ROI formula but this means that you will need a significant sized bank. We will follow for a further month, but it is important to note that this service will only be suitable for the bigger gamblers amongst you. Find out more about Steve Good Racing - Click Here UK Horse Racing Experts Last month we mentioned that the profit of to stakes at Betfair SP was distorted by the two big priced winners and that we would need convincing that the big priced winners were not just a fluke and could be found regularly. Well this month the results were horrific with 15 winners from 111 selections and a loss for the month of ! The cumulative position resulted in 36 winners from 234 and a massive LOSS on our investment of 21.75%. For more information on this service - Click Here BetInfo24 Nap Service The month of December saw 26 tips being given with 8 of them winning giving a final healthy strike rate of 30.7%. Unfortunately the advised odds were too low to cover the losses and this month ended with an overall loss of 6.57 points. As a result we just about broke even for the period of the review. To find out more about the BetInfo 24 Nap Service - Click Here

17 The Better Horse Racing Service During the month of December the service provided 28 selections with 5 winners and 2 placed horses giving us a loss for the month of points to the advised stakes and odds. This more than wiped out the previous months 10 points profit. Overall we feel that it is best to draw a line under this one. To find out more about The Better Horse Racing Service - Click Here Prem Lays With 13 recommended bets in December where the Premier League club was expected to lose its match, eight matches duly obliged but 5 of the teams actually won at average lay odds of 3.47 giving us an overall loss of 6.70 points. Sadly this seems to be another laying system which has run out of steam. To find out more about Premlays - Click Here 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

18 Advertisement Simon Patton Racing was launched in November 2014 and my flagship service Patton Racing Profits has been running since the 18th April Since launch in April it has delivered +500pts profit, a strike rate of 27% and an ROI of 36% with only one losing month. The aim of the service is to deliver consistent steady profits so there is only ever a maximum of 3 selections a day. My aim when launching the site was to offer what I call a full end-to-end service, so as well as offering two tipping services I also have a Training Academy with the aim of helping your average bettor to become more profitable and self-sufficient. Thanks Simon

19 Getting the maximum profit from your bonus scalping. So far we have covered how to make the most of two of the extra offers often highlighted by the bookmakers to entice us in to their clutches: The Matched Bet Bonus This is the most common new account bonus. You open your account and make a deposit and the bookmaker adds further bonuses by the way of free bets. SkyBet are at the time of writing offering a bonus of up to Place a single or each way bet on any sports market at odds of evens or above and they ll give you a free matched bet up to of Remember this type of bonus does not generally return the stake, only any winnings, so a winning bet of at evens would return not The Deposit Bonus Where simply making a deposit into our account adds an additional bonus percentage, anywhere up to 100% of our initial deposit. Such an example at the time of writing it Bet365 who are offering 100% deposit bonus up to a maximum of for new customers. They will also give a further 100% matched bonus up to when you place your first bet via mobile or tablet. Remember though that with any of these bonus offers there are always certain conditions which you will be required to meet before you can withdraw the bonus monies. So ensure that you read all Terms and Conditions completely and that you fully understand them BEFORE you make your deposit.

20 It is worth noting that the likes of SkyBet and many others also offer continuing bonuses. Their SkyBet Club means that if you bet you get a free 5.00 bet every week (a 20% bonus). As well as these two general categories of bonuses there is the third category of one off incentives which will be offered usually around a specific event. For example, Paddy Power whilst writing is currently offering a bet on tonights Arsenal match of a free bet if Alexis Sanchez scores 1st. If Alexis Sanchez scores first they will refund all losing 1st / last goal scorer, correct score, and score cast singles on the match. They will give you the money back as a free bet up to These offers are not just offered online but also sometimes in the betting shops. To take advantage of this offer we need to look for someone to score first where the odds are similar on the exchanges as they are with Paddy so you can bet for example Mesut Ozil to score first at 15/1 and lay him back at a similar price on the exchanges such as Betfair. If Sanchez does score first you would get a refund on your bet on Ozil, and a winner on the exchange. You could of course lay Sanchez on the exchanges as first goal scorer and then you could make a profit regardless of the outcome, but this can then become complicated. What we need to do is ensure that we gain the most we can from our deposit and matched bet bonuses. The deposit bonuses are the simplest of bonuses to take advantage of. Deposit you money into the account, make sure that you meet the turnover requirements if any and you can then withdraw the cash. The matched bet bonus is slightly more complicated to use and to maximise. You can just sit back and hope that the free bet wins, but of course you will lose your stake from that free bet if you do. Getting the maximum benefit possible you will need to look for the player / team / horse being offered at big priced odds to win an event outright which you can then lay back on the exchanges. Sadly there is no quick solution to this, it takes time and a little work and effort to find a suitable option and there is no getting around this boring bit we are afraid. Let s assume that you have a free bet which you have placed on Wozniacki with Stan James at 18/1 (19.00 decimal odds) to win the Women s Australian Open Tennis Tournament, and you have then laid her back on a Betting Exchange such as Betfair at 17/1 (18.00). Remember, because our stake is not returned the back price is which =

21 (Oddschecker.com Hedging Calculator see last months issue for more info ) Using this method would return you of the free bet ( less 1.42). If you had placed the free bet on an Even money selection and then layed it back on the exchanges you would have pocketed just less than ( ) = As you can see this is a considerable difference in the amount of the free bet retained. Generally speaking you will have around one or two weeks in which to place your free bet as the bookmakers do usually stipulate a time limit in which the bet must be placed. Don t be pressured into immediately placing the free bet, wait and find an event which suits you and where the options at larger odds may be layed off. There is also a down side to laying off at the bigger odds and that is the amount of money needed to cover your lay liability on the exchanges. In the first example you can see your lay liability would be in excess of Common sense says, take your time and get yourself comfortable and familiar with the process before you start tying up large sums of money. Also remember that if the event you are using is one which will not end until some months in the future, for example backing the Premier League winner, your money will remain tied up until such time as the final outcome has been decided.

22 Classic free bet opportunities will often arise when big events are taking place such as with horseracing and the Cheltenham Festival in March or with the Grand National in April. These bonuses are often publicised in the national press as well as on websites and in the book maker s shops and online. It is also possible to use the free bets in instances where you cover the bet with more than one possible outcome. Yes, it can get complicated but this situation has arisen in the past: The following is a real life example which has actually occurred in the past in respect of a previous Six Nations Rugby Tournament, which kicks off this year on 6th February. Ladbrokes were offering cash back if England won the Six Nations Tournament. With six teams playing we need to cover all six teams and have odds which will result in an arb. The prices available were as follows and are all shown as decimal odds for ease decimal odds offered with Ladbrokes So to place our bets we need to back in the following manner: Back France to win the tournament with 2.50 to return This will trigger their cash back bonus if England wins - stake Back England the 5.80 to return , PLUS the 100 cash back from Ladbrokes giving a total return of stake Back Wales to win the 4.40 to return 250 stake Back Ireland to win the 6.00 to return 250 stake Back Scotland to win the to return 250 stake 8.33 Back Italy to win the to return 250 stake 1.00 So, in total we have staked = Our total return whatever the outcome is So we are guaranteed a profit of = 16.34

23 Even better prices may have been achieved by waiting until nearer the start of the tournament in this instance, but either way it may be worthwhile keeping an eye on the prices on Oddschecker and any possible bonuses which are around nearer the day of the kick-off of the first match. How do we earn the most profit from these bonuses that we keep being offered? Some people will shop around to save pennies on a loaf of bread, or drive miles for a penny off a litre of fuel, but many will then go and bet a horse at odds of 4.00 when a little effort and investigating would have achieved them a price of 5.00 elsewhere. Whatever your inclination to betting whether it is as on out and out gambler or as someone who tries to arb a profit wherever possible the one most important element you should consider is to ensure that you get the very best price available to you. When the book makers make their book they look to ensure that their over-round or their book balances are in excess of 100%, if they are not they do not make a profit. With horseracing these over-rounds can be as high as 130%, i.e. for every the bookie pays out he takes in from the unsuspecting gamblers. Always shop around for the best odds available to you. It is commonly accepted that you can find 25% better odds by looking around and using the internet sites such as and and remember that the best prices are not always just on the exchanges like Betfair. If you are interested in betting on the horses look for book makers offering Best Odds Guaranteed or BOG prices. If you place your bet and your horse gets backed in the book-maker will pay out on the higher price. Next month we will be taking a look at a specific example of how to profit from those bookmakers who kindly offer us a refund of our stake if our horse finishes second, and how many times does that happen! 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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25 The Double Delight A Simple flutter with a statistical edge. This month we are taking a break from the traditional horse racing system and instead highlighting a simple mathematical advantage that you can profit from. In an eight runner race our friends the book makers will pay out on 3 places when it comes to our each way bets. If we take the number of runners (8) and divide this by the number of places (3) we have the percentage chance of a selection being placed which is: 8 / 3 = 37.50% So, if we randomly select any horse in an eight runner race we are in theory in with a 37.50% chance of it being placed. Of course backing the favourite every time won't make us a profit, the bookies make sure their prices are tight there and the place odds will often be miniscule. No we need a horse with reasonable place odds to give us a chance of making a few pounds. We know that the Adrian Massey site ceased to be maintained following Mr Massey s retirement but this database still remains useful to this day as an excellent search facility. If we investigate further it is clear from the historical Adrian Massey website that in a sample of races taken between the years the second favourite in a race finished placed not 37.50% of the time, but 49% of the time.

26 In fact particular race types give us an even greater statistical edge. A typical non-handicap race such as a novice hurdle race increases the chance of being placed to 57% If we select ALL non-handicap races with 8 or 9 runners, the clear second favourite is shown to place almost 62.50% of the time, we can therefore improve our chances yet again. If we consider the probability of two such races resulting in the second favourite finishing placed, we can increase our advantage again. The chances of this happening are (0.625*0.625) *100 = 39.06% of the time. The chances of both horses winning their race is (0.226 * 0.226) * 100 = 5.11% Of course the actual starting price mentioned above and the positions in the market are determined AFTER the race has started so this doesn t really help us with a selection process, so let s look at a practical use and example. If we look at the Racing Post Betting Forecast on any day we have a solid chance of backing a horse which at least is expected to be involved at the finish. So let s take a look at Saturday 10th January s racing for example. The Warwick meeting had two suitable races.

27 The 3.00pm And, the 4.05pm

28 Using the Racing Post betting forecast we can look to find a CLEAR second favourite. (Do not use the race if there are joint second favourites). For simplicity we need that clear second favourite. If there are more than two suitable races on the cards on the same day use those two races which are offering the highest value prize money to the winner. We can then at least feel a little confident that the horses will be trying given the monies on offer. What are the potential returns? Assuming we place an Each Way double and stake one point per bet, e.g. one point win double and one point place double. One point in this example is 5.00 for illustration purposes. The actual odds achieved on the day were as follows: Three Musketeers - 13/2 (6.50) / Place odds = (6.50/5) = 1.30 Big Chief Benny - 11/4 (2.75) / Place odds = (2.75/5) = 0.55 Assumed place odds 1/5th. If either of the horses does not finish in the places then we lose BOTH parts of the bet. LOSE 2 points If both horses place then, we LOSE the win parts of the double bets but we WIN with the place part of the double bets. Our returns would therefore be as follows: If Three Musketeers is placed we have a return of: 1 point x ( ) = 2.30 points These 2.30 points then carry forward on to the next race on Big Chief Benny. If Big Chief Benny successfully places we have a return of: 2.30 points x ( ) = 3.57 points Our total profit therefore is 3.57 points LESS the original 2 points staked gives a profit of: 1.57 points = 7.85 profit If both horses win then both the win double and place double bets are successful. If Three Musketeers wins we have a return of: 1 point x ( ) = 7.50 points These 7.50 points then carry forward on to the next race on Big Chief Benny.

29 If Big Chief Benny wins we have a return of: 7.50 points x ( ) = points PLUS our 3.57 points returned from the place bets gives us total return of: ( ) = 31.70points Our total profit therefore is points LESS the original 2 points staked (1 point on the win part of the bet and one point on the place part of the bet), giving us a profit of: 29.70points = profit Expanding this theoretical probability and assuming a 100 race sample we can reasonably expect the following possible outcomes: 100 races and 2 points staked per race = total points staked 200. A 39.06% chance of both horses being placed x 3.57 place returns based on the above prices returns = points returned. A 5.11% of both horses winning x win returns based on the above prices = points returned. Our potential returns over 100 races are therefore points ( ) which is a potential points profit or a 41.59% ROI. So in our example what actually happened? Three Musketeers won the race at 6/1 (Ron s Dream was withdrawn so only 7 ran).

30 Big Chief Benny finished 2nd at 7/2. With the field reduced to 7 runners in the Three Musketeers race the book makers adjust the bet to pay out on 2 places only, not 3, and consequently the reduced number of places means that the actual place odds change from a 1/5th of the win price to 1/4 of the win price. Therefore the place part of the each way double was successful and the returns were as follows: Three Musketeers places first so we have a return of: Place odds for Three Musketeers is now (6.50/4)= point x ( ) = 2.63 points to carry forward on to the next race on Big Chief Benny. Big Chief Benny successfully finishes 2nd: 2.63 points earned from the previous race are staked on Big Chief Benny: 2.63 x ( ) = 4.08 points less the 2 points staked originally staked. = Profit on the day of 2.08 points = profit. Advanced Techniques For those of you who are familiar with the betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq there are a number of additional options which are open to you to potentially lock in a guaranteed profit, or alternatively give yourself a risk free bet should the first leg of the Double Delight deliver a winner. Option 1. You can place a lay bet equivalent to your two points staked on the second horse NOT to win its race on the betting exchange.

31 10.53 is used as the lay stake as after deducting 5% Betfair commission this will return 10.00, or two points in our case, should the lay net be successful. Laying Big Chief Benny at 3.85 would give us a liability of 30.01, our potential profit if he wins is less our lay liability of = so we have a potential profit of and a free bet! Option 2 Another option is to place your bets with the Sportsbook on Betfair. They offer a cash out facility on this type of bet. In this instance, after the Three Musketeers race had been won they offered a return of which if it had been accepted would have given a guaranteed profit of ( less our two points staked ).

32 This would have been totally irrespective of the outcome of the second race, win or lose. As this is really a fun seekers method you may choose to treat it as such, but how galling would it have been in this example as Big Chief Benny was actually matched at 1.01 in running. He seemed destined to win after leading inside the latter stages of the race only to be over hauled by the eventual winner. At the end of the day it comes down to your own individual choice of risk versus reward. For our part we chose to cover the two points staked with a lay bet and enjoy a free bet and a bumper pay out should Big Chief Benny have won.

33 Method Choose races with 8-9 runners. Choose non-handicap races. Use the Racing Post betting forecast to find the CLEAR 2nd favourite. (Do not use the race if there are joint second favourites). If there are more than two suitable use the two races offering the highest value prize money to the winner. Check Oddschecker for the best combined odds with the SAME bookmaker and also for any Non Runners. Combine the two selections with a 1 point EACH WAY double. Have fun and Good Luck! How have the Midnight Legend and All Weather Winter Systems been fairing? Both the Midnight Legend and the All Weather Winter System are showing a profit. Midnight Legend December selections 8 winners 22 placed (including winners) Win strike rate % Place strike rate % Points Profit (BSP) ROI % 1st January 2015-to date (16th January 2015) 27 selections 7 winners 12 placed (including winners) Win strike rate % Place strike rate % Points Profit (BSP) ROI %

34 The All Weather Winter System 1st January 2015-to date (16th January 2015) 9 selections 1 winner 4 placed (including winners) Win strike rate % Place strike rate % Points Profit (BSP) ROI % 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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36 The On Course Profits Top Ten Our On Course Top Ten looks to search out those services which over the past three months have actively produced either, a good strike rate and modest profit or a good rate of return with a lower strike rate, ideally both. If your gambling style is risk averse, and you are someone who struggles to handle the losing runs, then search for a Tipster who is providing a good strike rate with a reasonable ROI (Return on Investment). That way you can look to earn steady profits and stand less chance of suffering long losing runs. If you are a high risk taker and happy to wait out those long losing runs then you can look to those Tipsters who may have a considerably lower strike rate, but who tip those larger priced winners which often give a greater ROI overall. All of our top ten services are collated based on their performance over a three month period recorded at level stakes. If you are new to betting and have time to shop around then you should certainly look to make the most of the Best Odds Guaranteed prices.

37 Our Tipster Top Ten based on returns to Best Odds Guaranteed No. 1 PJA Racing NH Service: Strike Rate = 26% ROI = 27%. Yet again topping the leaderboard is the PJA Racing NH Service which offers selections specifically for National Hunt Racing. Yet again they have managed to produce a good strike rate and Return on Investment over the 90 day period reviewed. Find out more about the service. No. 2 - Value Backing Extra: Strike Rate = 12% ROI = 26% Part of Carl Nicholson's Value Backing service these are the additional selections provided in addition to his big race bets. Currently they are outshining the main service. Find out more about the service No. 3 - Elite Ratings System: Strike Rate = 26% ROI = 24% This service is a regular horse tipping service which sends an every day (except Sunday) with a selection to win or back each way. Find out more about the service No. 4 - Colin Leafe Racing: Strike Rate = 26% ROI = 24% Colin Leafe has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years as an owner, "The bets he shares are the same bets that his money is on and they are based on form study, knowledge and judgment". Find out more about the service No. 5 - The Evening Value Service: Strike Rate = 18% ROI = 18% A tipping service which is offering "consistent and substantial profits", with "just 15 minutes a day". Find out more about the service

38 No. 6 - Racing Consultants: Strike Rate = 27% ROI = 17% Rory Delargy a freelance racing writer and broadcaster of Timeform Radio fame and David Massey a freelance consultant pool their knowledge of form study; paddock watching, replay watching and networking contacts to bring a racing consultancy service like no other. Find out more about the service No. 7 - Lucky 7 Naps: Strike Rate = 23% ROI = 14% A "specialist racing profits syndicate" which claims to offer "consistent cash profits". Find out more about the service No. 8 - First Favourite: Strike Rate = 23% ROI = 14% The website claims the last three years have all been winning years with a consistent strike rate and a consistently positive ROI. Find out more about the service No. 9 - Simply the Bets - AW Racing Tips: Strike Rate = 23% ROI = 14% The website claims the last three years have all been winning years with a consistent strike rate and a consistently positive ROI. Find out more about the service No The Morning Value Service = Strike Rate = 17% ROI = 10% The website claims the last three years have all been winning years with a consistent strike rate and a consistently positive ROI. This service is not currently accepting new members! It appears that there are a number of new services which have been launched over the past couple of months, so it will be interesting to see next month if any can make the frame Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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40 A Novel Coup Who would have thought that the great Dick Francis would have masterminded a betting coup? Okay, he didn t exactly mastermind it but the Kilbeggan coup of 21st June 2010 was certainly something out of one of his novels. The coup itself closely followed a plot from one of Felix and Dick Francis s novels entitled Even Money. The story is one of fiction where 30 juvenile delinquents from High Wycombe are given very strict instructions to visit a number of bookmakers betting shops while simultaneously placing a win bet on the fictional horse Cricket Hero. The bets were to be placed at exactly five minutes before the race was due to go off, and of course, the horse duly obliges and wins the race. The real life version of this gambling coup though was not so far removed from the story. Douglas Taylor, the MD of a recruitment company called MCR Group based in Dublin started plotting the coup with a number of friends a few weeks before the chosen race day, and roped in the assistance of a number of his employees. He used in real life some 200 runners to place their bets of on a horse called D Four Dave of which he was part owner, to win just 5 minutes before the off. The plan virtually mirrored the Even Money plot. The race chosen was the low key Hurley Family Kilbeggan Handicap Hurdle at Kilbeggan, County Westmeath, Ireland, the scheduled race time, 7.00pm.

41 Each employee / runner was reportedly paid between and for their trouble and time. They were given very specific instructions as to what to do and when and where, with each of the runners being transported to the betting shop by a team of drivers. D Four Dave had previously failed to make the frame in two previous outings so, on the morning of the race, the Conor O Dwyer trained D Four Dave was available at 14/1, having run a poor race at the course earlier in the month seeing him beaten by some 40 lengths. He had finished 21st of 24 in Navan in the January. He opened on course at 7/1 finally being sent off at a starting price of 5/1. Interestingly though if big money had been put down earlier then the bookmakers would no doubt have felt very nervous and slashed their odds much harder and sooner. The smaller multiple bets attracted much less attention and most importantly were placed simultaneously. The detailed instructions were given to each individual runner in a small package which was to remain sealed until they reached their designated betting shop. Inside this package was a digital watch with the alarm already set, a prefilled betting slip, 200 in cash and a letter with VERY specific instructions, a copy of which was obtained by the Irish Racing Post. The letter read as follows: Dear Employee, enclosed you will find: A completed betting slip for the betting shop you have been sent to, and 200 in cash for which you need to place the bet. You should also have a watch with an alarm set to go off at 6.55pm. Your job is to place the bet exactly when the alarm goes off at 6.55 pm. You need to be at the counter before the alarm goes off to be in position to hand over the betting slip and say to the person at the counter I WILL TAKE THE PRICE. When the person hands you back the betting slip you will pay over the You then have to place the betting slip back in your envelope and return the slip immediately to your supervisor / driver along with the watch when he comes to pick you up. You can then return with your driver / supervisor to MCR office to get paid. All of the bets were to be placed in separate betting shops around the Kildare and Dublin area. D Four Dave won the race by some seven lengths.

42 Taylor said after the race that The race itself couldn t have gone any better, it was like a dream. As Mark Walsh was being legged up I just told him that the lads had a few quid on each-way and not to be found wanting. The race was also considered perfect for the job in hand as D Four Dave had had reasonable form in point-to-points but he needed a step back up to three miles and not too strong competition. His trainer was quoted as saying His part-owner Douglas Taylor was married on Saturday so today will help pay for the party! If all had gone completely to plan, D Four Dave s owners would have cleared more than 200,000, sadly however the coup wasn t without a few hiccups and the final monies which came in were less than were hoped for, although Taylor was reported as saying that the final total was not far off 200,000. Paddy Power reported losses of 50,000 and Boylesports claimed to have lost a five figure sum. The coup is still considered to be rare and excellently planned, in principle anyway. As well thought out as it was, some of the drivers had poor navigation skills and couldn t find the betting shops where they need to be, or they didn t arrive in time to place the bet, there were traffic problems, and various bets went astray as some of the runners.ran off with the money! In an attempt to minimise the risk of any information being leaked many of the employees used were foreign nationals and had a poor understanding of the English language, so didn t fully understand the instructions given. It is understood that some of them could not read the note they had been given, while others tried to place the bet after the race had concluded and the horse had sauntered home by seven lengths, noted the Racing Post. One of the big mistakes though was when one of the 200 runners placed the bet in the betting shop too early, some six minutes early, and within a minute the price had contracted from the early 14/1 to 12/1 and then quickly into 10/1. In addition, and possibly the greatest mistake of all was that one of the runners actually handed the betting shop cashier the letter of instruction from his employer, rather than the betting slip, in a Hackett s Office whoops! Taylor was quoted as saying.you can be sure those guys probably won t be making the cut next time. Needless to say the betting was very quickly suspended and only a small proportion of the planned bets were actually placed. Once this error had been picked up on Taylor said that other bookmakers were hit, he is quoted as saying we decided to share it around.so that wasn t the end of the world. In the end Mr Taylor said that Of the 200 bets, 26 failed to make the journey that we know for sure. Of course this coup could so very easily have failed completely. Mark Costello the then Deputy Editor of Irish Field Magazine said that Kilbeggan wouldn t be seen as the best place to execute a gamble like that there were a number of fallers during that race. Anything could have happened.

43 The betting plan itself was both simple and perfectly legal; it just needed D Four Dave to know that he had to win. The Irish Bookmakers Association reluctantly praised the gamble, admitting: "It's a classic. They did nothing illegal." Sharon Byrne, the Chair of the Association confirmed The whole of Dublin and most of Kildare were hit.some of those recruited had really bad English and couldn t even read what they were given. The staff could see two watches on most of their wrists and were aware that something unusual was happening. Some of the bookmakers staff got to keep the note that the runners had been given, although some of those recruited got a little aggressive and insisted they get the note back. The coup apparently wasn t months in the planning only weeks, but Taylor confirmed that it was polished after reading Even Money. It didn t cost that much to organise. The watches were 6 each and I m hoping to flog those for 10 each soon. There were only five cars used with five lads supervising them. The run-up to it was almost as exciting as anything else; there was a great buzz in the office. A big gang here were involved in programming the watches and writing out the betting slips. Taylor also warned that the big one has yet to come Poignantly this racing coup was on the evening of Dick Francis s memorial service in London and Felix Francis, his son, was reportedly delighted. I got the Racing Post primarily to read Alastair Down s report on my father s memorial service but when I saw the front page I was amazed. Felix said he loved the story, adding; I hope Douglas Taylor read the book, because it s straight out of those pages, except in the book the horse wasn t actually the horse it was a ringer, so I hope they ve tested D Four Dave s DNA! 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd