What Really Wins Money

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1 May 2013 Volume 9 Issue 5 What Really Wins Money ***** An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems ***** Hi, What! No more football? I might actually have to start talking to my girlfriend at the weekend. Yikes! Now, the end of the football season shouldn t stop you traders from trading (far from it) there s always the tennis, and that s where I ll start this month. I m going to share with you my all red signals which are great for you each-way punters. If you re more into place-only betting there s also a really solid performing place-only betting system for you to sink your teeth into. This system comes from the Betting Lab, and my Home-Grown Systems Update tracks the performance of the most profitable strategies for you. This month the Statman focuses his attention on last time out winners running at specific race courses and his conclusions provide profits for both backers and layers. The Patriarch raids the vaults for the usual snippets of vintage betting strategies brought back for the here and now, and still making a profit. Inside this issue: Racing Strategy How to Profit From The Returning All Red Signal...5 Racing Strategy 75% Strike Rate: Perceived 2-Horse Races...8 Latest News Home-Grown Systems Update...10 The Statman presents... How to Make an Easy 31% ROI From Last Time Out Winners...11 The Patriarch Presents... Follow the Winning 2-Year Olds...13 There s also the usual round-up of the best systems and tipsters out there and, before I go, there s a special shout out which could benefit you and save you hundreds of pounds. There videos for each article are available at: Trading Strategy Why There s Great Money to Be Made Trading Tennis This Summer May signals the end of the football season, and therefore the end of football trading opportunities for the time being. To refresh your memory, football trading is possible because of three main components, which are: i. The advent of betting exchanges, and in particular ii. With the arrival of Betfair, we as punters can now back and lay (effectively back a team or outcome not to win!). It is the relationship between the back and the lay odds which allows for trading. iii. The ability to now bet on football matches in-play, live! This ability, coupled with Point ii especially, enables us to employ D-R-T or Delay, React, Trade (more on that later in the article). The end of the football season does not have to mean the end of your ability to trade sports, especially using the highly effective D-R-T philosophy. Enter the world of tennis trading As I write, it is the clay court season where the best tennis players in the world battle it out at the likes of please turn over...

2 Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Rome, and eventually the French Open. When the world s best tennis players start playing regularly, I start to become as big a tennis fan as Cliff Richard (I promise not to sing though if there is a rain delay!). It is with the world s best tennis players that you will make your trading profits as the football takes a break from league action (there is the lucrative preseason tour schedule to come though). Now is a good time to re-acquaint you with D-R-T and then discuss how it can be applied to Tennis. D-R-T stands for DELAY-REACT-TRADE as regular readers of What Really Wins Money will know. DELAY We no longer have to back a team, or tennis player we fancy before a match starts. We can delay our entry into the betting market as the event is being played out. REACT Having delayed our entry into the betting market we now wait for a surprise to occur. How do I define a surprise in footballing terms? Quite simply, it would be a surprise if Manchester United, playing at home, went a goal down to a team such as Southampton. In tennis terms, it would be a surprise if the likes of Federer, Nadal, and Murray were to lose the first set in early rounds of a tournament in which they are playing. TRADE By reacting to the surprise, we achieve one great advantage over those poor punters who have to place their bets pre-match and hope for the best. We can back Manchester United, who go a goal down at home to the likes of Southampton, at odds far greater than were available pre-match. In the tennis we can back Federer at odds much greater than he was pre-match, if he has lost the first set. In our Manchester United example, the trading element of D-R-T is realised once Manchester United equalise (as expected) or once Federer breaks serve in the 2nd set (as is expected) and /or wins the 2nd set. The screenshots below show you just such a scenario in both the football and tennis. In the first example, Manchester United at home have gone 0-1 down to Southampton. Look how quickly Manchester United have restored parity. The standout example here is for Rafael Nadal who It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: Fax: Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No Vat Reg No Copyright What Really Wins Money In the Madrid Masters tennis recently, Nishikori was playing Roger Federer. As you can see from the scoreboard below, Roger Federer lost the first set 6-4, and promptly won the 2nd set 6-1. What is intriguing in this case is the fact that Federer went on to lose the match, yet the D-R-T tennis trade was still profitable because we entered the market at the start of the 2nd set when Federer was a set down (he lost the first set 6-4), and exited either when he broke serve first, or better still at the end of the 2nd set when Federer restored parity by winning 6-1. The beauty of this is that you will have been able to back Manchester United or Roger Federer in-play at far better odds than were available pre-match, once they find themselves conceding a surprise goal or a first set. You simply wait for the equaliser, or Federer to win the 2nd set. With that comes a swing in the odds which enables you to lay off your bet for a successful trade. As hinted at earlier, there have been a multitude of tennis trading opportunities in the last two weeks, with the promise of more to come as the tournaments come thick and fast, and the world s best tennis players arrive at these higher profile events. I ll list some of these recent examples for you...

3 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to loses the first set to Ernests Gulbis. Rafa was priced at 1.1 pre-match and was available to back at odds of 1.74 at one stage. Note he won the 2nd set. As an aside, there is another trading strategy that can be employed. Note Juan Martin Del Potro above. There was a rumour that he had the remnants of a virus/illness and was not 100% fit. True or not, his odds of 1.16 for his match were far too short under the circumstances. Why not lay him at 1.16 in case the rumours were true? Indeed, if you have any doubts about one of the world s top players, maybe they have health concerns, or the match looks competitive, lay them if the odds are short enough. Your liability is then minimised and the potential upside is superb. Look below for matches on 15th May. Can you tell me which ones are the matches of interest for a tennis trader? Remembering that we want our focus to be on world top 10 players, your eyes should immediately be drawn to Andy Murray. He lost his first set to Marcel Granollers. He struggled in the 2nd set and was 3-1 down at one stage. Murray, pre-match was priced at 1.2. Delaying our entry until the 2nd set meant we could back Andy Murray at better odds than 1.2 and lay Granollers speculatively at very low odds. This is what I did: and traded out successfully for a profit of as Murray came back from the brink and won the 2nd set. He promptly retired but I still profited. And you can too! The other match of interest to the tennis trader was the Ferrer v Verdasco match. Remember, we want our focus to be with the world s top 10 players. Here David Ferrer, a top 5 player, loses the first set. He did what next? Ahh yes, he won the 2nd set. To whet your appetite for domestic tennis to come (Queens and Wimbledon), here s a selected example from Wimbledon last year. The screenshots are predominantly taken using Fairbot from com. In the accompanying video, I will highlight alternative software you can use to make your trading with Betfair a lot more professional and take you through the basics of backing and laying, and their relationship for the trader. It is a concept better grasped with a video. Roger Federer v Julien Benneteau Let me take you through this match at Wimbledon last year. Already it should pique your interest as a tennis trader using the D-R-T philosophy. Why? Simply because it features one of the world s top 5 players, a certain up-and-coming young star by the name of Roger Federer. You should be readying your tennis trading trigger fingers now as Roger Federer loses the first set 6-4. : While Granollers was 3-1 games up in the 2nd set, his odds reached a low of Backing a player trading at odds as low as 1.04 with 100 would only win the princely sum of 4. I did the opposite and layed him at odds of 1.06 for a liability of only The potential profit? A whopping 78 should Andy Murray stage a comeback. I then backed 1.21 shot Andy Murray at odds of Look how promptly Roger reacts to that 1st set loss, by going 2-0 up in the 2nd set. Julien Benneteau broke back quickly to ensure the 2nd set was back on serve. The slight concerns in the 2nd set for Roger Federer prompted the market to push his price out to This was too tempting to pass up for yours truly. please turn over...

4 Here I back Roger Federer at odds of 1.78 as the 2nd set is still under way. This offers extremely good value if you consider that, earlier in this same match, Roger Federer s odds were as short as 1.07 (i.e. you would have to back him with 100 to win 7!). And so the Federer fight back begins. In the next series of screenshots, watch how Roger Federer s odds shorten from the 1.78 that I backed him at. Federer has break point after being backed at He has not won break point yet, but still the odds have reduced to 1.58 to reflect a renewed confidence in him winning. It is when Roger s odds reduce to 1.2 that I decide to trade out and guarantee a profit of 47. If you look at the bottom right of Fairbot, you can see that I backed Roger Federer at odds of 1.78 and layed Roger Federer at odds of 1.21 for a stake of The price shortened considerably in reaction to a break of serve in the 4th set. Julien Benneteau s serve is broken by Roger Federer. This 1.78 shot is now trading at 1.46 to back and 1.48 to lay. Using software such as Fairbot, I can facilitate a profit by clicking on the Green Up button, arrowed above. It tells me that if I wanted to end my involvement in this match, I can guarantee a profit of right now. It is the start of the 3rd set now and Roger Federer has immediately broken Benneteau s serve. The odds shorten even more, as you can see below. As the 3rd set progresses, Roger Federer begins to assert. He goes 3-0 up and his odds plummet as a result (the more likely a player is to win a match, the shorter his odds will be). 4 Bottom line In time for the tennis this summer, I will be posting walk-through examples of successful tennis trades at as well as talk more in depth about the relationship between the back and lay odds which enable us to successfully execute football trades, and now, tennis trades. The D-R-T philosophy has proven itself in the football arena, and is equally worthy of your attention in the tennis. To make things easier for you, I will be twittering any potential tennis trades that arise, so make sure you For those who want a quick synopsis on trading, please use the Help and Learning Centre at (the address for Trading is betfair.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/2694) and view my accompanying video to this article. Once you can grasp the trading concept, it opens up a whole world of profitable opportunities for you. I will supplement this myself at to get you fit and ready for successful

5 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to tennis trading this summer. The end of the football season does not mean the end of trading profits. As you can see, tennis is as viable a sport as football is for trading success. Racing Strategy How to Profit From The Returning All Red Signal Some time ago, when the Racing Post online could be found at and not its present address at there was an excellent Live betting site which provided a facility for us to instantly see those horses whose odds were apparently being shortened across a number of bookmakers. This facility is great in helping you shortlist horses in given races, particularly in tandem with my 16/1 Betting System (whose basics I ll explain through the following examples). Well, it looks as if it has returned at com. Follow the steps below in order to access this facility, and note the performance of those horses whose prices are almost exclusively coloured red. Go to Click on Cards. Choose the Option Order All Races By Time. The odds will change as the race time nears. These are bookmaker s odds for the 2.10pm race at Ripon. The odds in blue are either lengthening or staying the same (this usually implies there is little interest from punters). The odds in red signal horses whose prices are being shortened by the bookmakers, usually in reaction to punters interest or a stable gamble. Can you determine the All Red signal from this example? If you answered Life and Times then you have grasped the concept. Life and Times finished 2nd in this race, and with only two places, place-only betting odds would have been satisfactory for a wager. Let me show you some more examples of the All Red signal in action. This is a race from 17th May Choose your race of interest. Here I choose the 2pm at Market Rasen. Select the Odds Comparison Option and this is the screen you will see: 5 The All Red signals are? It s not too difficult now is it? Gabrial s King, Bouggatti, Palus San Marco and Story Writer are all showing All Red prices. In order to make these signals a little more accurate, compare the odds of these four horses with their Betting Forecast prices. please turn over...

6 The Betting Forecast for this race is detailed below: Gabrial s King is 7/1 in the betting forecast but 4/1 in the Live betting market. Bouggatti is 14/1 in the betting forecast but 15/2 in the Live betting market. Palus San Marco is 20/1 in the betting forecast but 8/1 in the Live betting market. Story Writer is 16/1 in the betting forecast but 14/1 in the Live betting market. Whenever you see the betting forecast odds considerably shorter with the bookmakers, this may be a signal that the bookmakers fancy the horses. Why? Well, if you compare the betting forecast in the Racing Post, with the live bookmaker odds, you ll be amazed at how similar these two independent prices are. The betting forecast is nothing more than a Racing Post journalist s pricing up of a particular race based upon his opinion. Time and time again though, the betting forecast and the Live betting prices are identical. So, when we see a horse such as Palus San Marco, whose betting forecast price is 20/1 and whose live market price is 8/1, we can speculate that the bookmakers may have shortened the odds in light of some insider information. (This is, in essence, my 16/1 system, a strategy to identify potential hidden stable gambles and horses which the bookmakers are running scared of.) Couple this with an All Red signal and you get a confirmation that the bookmakers are shortening the odds. On this particular occasion, the All Red signals were devastatingly accurate. of four selections. Not bad, huh? The above example should serve as the template, should you wish to use the Racing Post All Red signals in tandem with the 16/1 system. Try it out for yourself with this race below... Your first step is to identify the All Red signals. Your second step is to take note of the horse or horses whose betting forecast odds are considerably shorter in the Live betting market. There are two qualifiers here on the All Red front do you agree? Look at Good Old Boy Lukey s odds in the Betting Forecast. 5/1 he is showing in the Betting Forecast. His All Red signal price is 7/4. That s the kind of move you should be looking for. Thornaby Nash s odds of 6/1 in the betting forecast are a touch shorter with his All Red signal of 4/1. And the result? 1 Good Old Boy Lukey 6/4F 2 Thornaby Nash 4/1 3 Robynelle 4/1 This next race is the 550pm at Newmarket on 17th May: Gabrial s King won, Palus San Marco was 2nd and Story Writer ran on for third. 1st, 2nd and 3rd out 6 There are three All Red signals with Flynn s Boy, Afkar and Two Turtle Doves.

7 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to Flynn s Boy s odds in the betting forecast are 10/1, but he is 5/1 in the Live market. Afkar s odds were 16/1 in the Betting Forecast, 5/1 in the Live market, and Two Turtle doves odds in the betting forecast were 7/1 and he is 9/1 in the Live market. He does not strictly qualify. Look at the results though. All three names horsed in the top 4 in a very tight finish. In the 615 Hamilton, can you name for me the All Red signals and then qualify these by comparing the Betting Forecast with the All Red prices( aka the 16/1 system). Pacific Heights is the standout because his 10/1 Betting Forecast Price is 7/2 in the Live betting market but he is not All Red Chevalgris is 8/1 in the Betting Forecast, 5/1 and an All Red signal. This is an 8 runner race, and as regular readers know, each-way betting is advised on 8/9-runner races, as these are the minimum size of field to pay out on three places. 1 Chevalgris 9/2 2 Pacific Heights 100/30 3 Eric The Grey 11/8F 8 ran. Distances: nk, 3l, 7l A neck separated the 16/1 system bet from the All Red and 16/1 system qualifier. The next race is an example of a messy race, simply because there are too many All Red qualifiers. 7 These prices are taken one minute before the race is due to be run. All Red signals include Lexicon Lad, Triggerman, Danamix, Kruzhlinin, Dun Masc, Major Malarkey, Kingsmoss and That s The Deal. Who are the strict qualifiers using the Betting Forecast/Live Market comparisons? Lexicon Lad is 8/1 in the Betting Forecast, 7/1 in the Live market. Triggerman is 9/1 in the Betting Forecast, 15/2 in the live market. Danamix is 16/1 in the Betting Forecast, 10/1 in the Live market. That s the Deal is 33/1 in the Betting Forecast, 25/1 in the Live market. The Result? 1 Lexicon Lad 7/1 2 Night In Milan 5/1J 3 That s The Deal 25/1 1st and 3rd from four bets. I did not play this race as there were too many All Red signals. I don t want to paint a rose-tinted picture of a never ending flow of winners. There are races such as the one below where a qualifier will not place: please turn over...

8 Can you decipher the qualifiers here? I would go with Running Reef and Dakota Canyon as two horses who have All Red signals, and whose Live odds are considerably shorter than their Betting Forecast odds. These horses finished a close up 4th and 5th and were near to an each-way payout. I will leave you with this example from 17th May, 2013 at Kilbeggan in Ireland. No cheating now. Note down the All Red signals. Now note down those horses whose live market odds are far shorter than their Betting Forecast odds. I hope, for step one, you chose Gates of Rome, Ninetieth Minute, Maccas Lad and Powerstation. For the second step, we note Gates of Rome s Betting Forecast odds are 6/1, their Live odds 5/1. Ninetieth Minute s Betting forecast odds are 8/1, their Live odds 7/1. Maccas Lad s Betting Forecast odds were 25/1, his Live odds 20/1 and Powerstation s Betting Forecast odds are 16/1, his Live odds 16/1. We have three qualifiers, don t you agree, in Gates of Rome, Ninetieth Minute and Maccas lad. The odds are such, and the field size is such, that each-way betting is always advised where practical. Pat yourself on the back. You ve just picked a 14/1 winner, an 8/1 2nd and you, like me, shunned the 8 20/1 3rd despite shortlisting the horse. Practicalities When do you look at the market? I tend to look at the All Red signals 1 minute before the off, just to remain uniform. All Red signals can vary from five minutes before the race, to two minutes and one minute before race time (indeed the winner in our first example was a horse called Godwit, who was an all red signal and 16/1 system qualifier as far back as 15 minutes before race time). If there are too many qualifiers, you can always sit out the race. If there is a single qualifier at a short price, I tend to look at the win-only/ place-only markets and especially the place only markets when there are 7 runners or less (2 places). If the qualifiers appear in 8+ runner races, I tend to back each-way so that a place will return some stake money if the horse does not win. I must say that the 17th May 2013 was an exceptional day for All Red signals and 16/1 system bets and not all days will be like this. The odds though, at which you are backing horses are normally nice and big, so expect the odd Maccas Lad coming in to boost the bank, and remember, when you are backing horses like Maccas Lad, Betfair s odds will have been far greater that the measly 14/1 bookmaker odds (19 on Betfair or 18/1 and 3/1 to place only). Racing Strategy 75% Strike Rate: Perceived 2- Horse Races have been keeping a record of all perceived two I horse races in the UK and Ireland in the hope that I can find a pattern as regards the performances of the 1st and 2nd favourites in the following areas:»» Win Only»» Place Only»» Laying the favourite to win the race»» Laying the 2nd favourite to win the race At this early stage in my analysis I may have stumbled upon an intriguing Place Only backing strategy which I would urge you to check out yourself.

9 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to It is the 75% strike rate currently (with 185 horses finishing 1st and 2nd out of 243 runners) that has got me excited. What is Place-Only betting? It might help if we think of each-way betting in horse racing first. Each-way betting is when you place a bet on a horse to win its race, and a bet on a horse to place in the first two in a seven runner race, or first three in an 8+ runner race. In a 16-runner Handicap, the bet will extend to the first four to finish. If the horse wins, you will get a payout for the win part of the each-way bet, and the place-only part of the eachway bet. Place-only betting then is backing a horse to place only. With place-only betting, we will not get paid for the win if a horse wins its race, but we will get paid out for the place only. and provide place-only betting. What is a perceived two-horse race then? I get my perceived two-horse races from the Racing Post, at This information is free. Here s how you can access it. Go to click on CARDS, where you will gain access to Today s Horse Racing Cards. Under each meeting, click on Show All Race Cards for this Meeting on One Page. Go through the Race Cards until you come across a betting forecast which looks like the one below. Let s look a little closer at the Betting Forecast. This is a perceived two-horse race. Why? Va vite is the 13/8 betting forecast favourite, and Brassick is the 2nd favourite in the betting forecast at 5/2. Look at the price gap to the 3rd favourite points of view: 5/2-6/1 9 This hints that the race will be dominated by the front two in the betting forecast, or in other words that this is a perceived two-horse race. I say perceived because the betting forecast odds are not the actual odds, but are the opinion of a Racing Post journalist. The 1st and 2nd favourites with the bookmakers might not be in the same order as they appear in the betting forecast at the Racing Post. We now simply place back the favourite of this race with the bookmakers or with Betfair. At Betfair, the place market looks like this: Although I was looking for other angles to exploit perceived two-horse races, the place-only backing of the Live betting market favourite is the one key option which stands out at present. There have been separate place-only winning runs of so far in my analysis which opens things up for accumulator place-only betting. Accumulator Place-Only betting With this option we start with a nominal stake, in this case 10. Looking at the winning runs above, I would look to bet this 10 + any winnings, in a betting cycle of five bets. In the betting cycle below, I have assumed that all horses have placed successfully. Bet 1 10 Bet winnings from Bet 1 Bet winnings from Bet 1 and Bet 2 Bet 4 10 winnings from Bet 1, Bet 2 and Bet 3 Bet 5 10 winnings from Bet 1, Bet 2, Bet 3 and Bet 4. Our initial stake of only 10 would produce a decent return with a run of five consecutive winning placeonly bets. please turn over...

10 Bottom line Next month I will provide you with fuller details regarding the potential of two horse races to enable us to profit from the place-only betting markets. The current 75% strike rate is promising. The amount of winning streaks also opens up options for accumulator betting. In the interim, see if you can spot these perceived two-horse races and note how often the bookmaker s favourite places in the first two. good long term. It is very risk averse so profits are modest in comparison to other staking plans. Latest News Home-Grown Systems Update Welcome to the section of What Really Wins Money where I report back on the monthly and overall performance of the Home-Grown Betting Systems I have devised. As you will read, there are some strategies with fantastic potential and the great news for you is that you need no betting knowledge at all to use them. This is a key component for me in devising these strategies. They largely ignore any need to delve deep into the form book. Lay The Favourite In The Last Race Of The Day This strategy is a case in point. The criteria? Lay the favourite in the last race of the day in the UK/Ireland. It s that simple. Do not let the simplicity fool you though! This lay strategy is proving to be profitable month after month if a few money management rules are adhered to. There are three specific staking plans to focus on when laying the favourite in the last race of the day. Fixed Liability Laying: When we lay to a fixed liability, we literally fix the expected losses if the horse we have layed (backed not to win) actually wins its race. This month has seen a return to a previous profit high which signals that fixed liability laying is looking 10 A 71% lay strike rate is in keeping with the urban myth that favourites win their races around 30% of the time. Level Stakes Laying Here we are simply laying the favourite in order to win a specific sum of money, say 10 for instance. When laying the last favourite of the day, the best profits can be made if we lay favourites at decimal odds of 4.00 and lower. Since 9th November 2012, a starting bank of 100, looking to win 10 (minus commission) has produced a profit of 437. For such a simple lay system it is an impressive performance. The Maria Staking Plan I did a separate article in last month s What Really Wins Money advising that the Maria Staking Plan had been performing superbly across a wide spectrum of horse racing laying systems. Here s a synopsis of this price-banded staking plan. To summarise, with examples based on a starting bank of 3,000 (if you re reckless enough to try them, you can scale up or down proportionally to your own bank)... Prices below 3.5: Lay to 1% of bank backer s stake 30 (my liability under 75). Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: Lay to 0.6% of bank backer s stake 18 (my liability ). Prices from 7.5 to 11: Lay to 0.4% of bank backer s stake 12 (my liability ). A 3,000 starting betting bank (as is traditional with

11 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to the Maria Staking Plan, but by no means a carved in stone rule), has generated a profit of 1,281 since 9th November Again, we are limiting odds to Laying the 3rd favourites in Novice Hurdles This is another simple lay system to follow and seems to have a good foundation for consistent profits. Lay at odds of 7 and under Since December 2011, laying the 3rd favourite(s) in novice hurdles looking to win a fixed amount, in this case 10, has turned 100 starting bank into 960. This is great performance given the simplicity of the selection criteria. With this price filter in effect, the Maria Staking Plan has been flourishing. The 3,000 nominal betting bank is 50 away from hitting the 5,000 marker. The one negative with this lay strategy is that we need to be following the live racing in order to personally determine the actual 3rd favourite(s) to lay, particularly in tight markets. Irish Bumpers If we head off to the Emerald Isle and focus specifically on their jumps races and the solitary race on an Irish jumps card which is not run over hurdles or chase fences, then we might have a reasonable shot at a long-term and profitable lay system. The races in question are National Hunt flat races. There was a slight dip since last month when laying the favourites in Irish Bumpers to level stakes. The 100 betting bank last month stood at 305 laying to win 10. This month it stands at 237. This of course is the same news when taking Bumpers through the Maria Staking Plan as I did last month. New ideas Place only backing favourites in perceived twohorse races really might be a long-term profit maker. You will have read the separate article outlining recent strong performance. This is an area I am really keen to continue monitoring. It is not often that you can boast a 75% strike rate for a backing idea. A 75% strike rate is normally associated with a laying strategy! There is real potential with All Red signals to high 11 light to you those horses which the bookmakers are shortening. I will try and capture as many examples of All Red signals for you. The Statman presents... How to Make an Easy 31% ROI From Last Time Out Winners In this month s article the Statman focuses on the best UK race tracks for backers and for layers. He s now come up with some great statistical angles when we marry last time out winners with some of these tracks... As many of you will have probably noticed by now, my methods are not quite as simple or glaringly obvious as others in similar positions. I like to think of a theory first (refusing to make assumptions about its profitability or not) then go off and see if it works one way or another. It can be a backing system or a laying one, accidental or deliberate. Conclusions can only be reached once the results are clear for all to see. This month is no different, as I woke up this morning with the words of my departed father ringing in my ears you never see a good horse at Epsom other than at Derby day. Naturally, trying to create a full system out of one sentence is beyond even me, but it did set me thinking... If we list courses that are not considered top class (and no, I will not dare to include the home of the Derby) how will the winners get on next time out and will there be a difference if they step up to a better track, or stay on happy hunting grounds of the same class? The concept is simple enough I am going to guess in advance that these winners are generally overbet thanks to the 1 next to their name, regardless of their true abilities or steps up in class that make their chances close to impossible. Time will tell if that is accurate or not. Our focus then is on last time winners. Last time please turn over...

12 winners can be found by looking at the form column in a traditional race card as follows: Looking at the form column on the left-hand side, note the horses whose form ended with a 1 in this case: Body and Soul, and Athenian. This signifies that these horses were last time out winners. Defining which tracks to include could get me in to all sorts of trouble with someone somewhere (clerks of the course, local fans, trainers, and so on). Being a coward at heart, I decided to rely on the official lists (Grades 1-4) looking to see if there is any difference between them, and admitting that I am expecting a lower return next time out from those winning at the lower grade tracks. Rules: The horse must have won last time out at the level of track as listed below (Grade 4 Tracks). We start with the race record from the next outing at any race track. Grade 4 tracks Bath, Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Chepstow, Ffos Las, Folkestone*, Leicester, Lingfield (A/W (all-weather)), Nottingham, Redcar, Southwell (A/W), Southwell (turf), Warwick, Wolverhampton (A/W) and Yarmouth. *track now closed but figures included to ensure clarity. No. No. No. Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Betof qualifiers of Winners of Losers Starting Price Fair Starting Price Now straight away we have a sensible and profitable laying route with a return on investment of 3.73% using Betfair SP. If we could get prices somewhere between Betfair SP and normal SP (which is easily possible) then the profits get even larger. 12 Can we fine-tune this even further, I wonder? Yes we can, by looking at whether these horses next race is at a Grade 4 track, as listed above. No. No. No. Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Betof qualifiers of Winners of Losers Starting Price Fair Starting Price And a return on investment of 3.79% to Betfair SP. But if they step up a grade... to Grade 3 tracks... No. No. No. Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Betof qualifiers of Winners of Losers Starting Price Fair Starting Price A return on investment of 4.82% to Betfair SP. Grade 2... No. No. No. Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Betof qualifiers of Winners of Losers Starting Price Fair Starting Price A return on investment of 2.84% to Betfair SP And finally Grade 1... No. No. No. Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Betof qualifiers of Winners of Losers Starting Price Fair Starting Price A return on investment of 0.058% to Betfair SP. Conclusion horses stepping up one grade (from 4 to 3) provide the best return on investment historically. Now, I thought that would tell us all we need to know but thanks to some shock results life isn t quite that simple because I did spot a few anomalies. Have a look at the following charts and use them to your heart s content there is more than enough to chew on for both backers and layers here! If a horse wins at a Grade 4 track as listed above and runs next time out in Ireland we may even have a very simple and more importantly profitable laying system: No. No. No. Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Betof qualifiers of Winners of Losers Starting Price Fair Starting Price The figures may not be huge but with just seven bets or so a year this takes precious little work, the return even at Betfair SP is a whopping 31% return on investment and I for one will be considering this for future laying systems. I haven t done or even thought about this before but as I am merely reporting from cold, hard facts (I call them statistics), I see no reason why we cannot list the best figures we can see for both backers and layers.

13 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to For layers: Track No of No of No of Profit/Loss Profit/Loss qualifiers Winners of Losers Starting Price Betfair Starting Price Ascot Chepstow Doncaster Kempton Redcar Southwell Wolver ton Totals Laying last time out winners who won at Grade 4 tracks, at the above race courses on their next run, produces a return on investment 10.2% to Betfair SP. That s not to be sniffed at and a lot better than most systems I know. For backers: Track No of No of No of Profit/Loss Profit/Loss qualifiers Winners of Losers Starting Price Betfair Starting Price Ayr Bath Carlisle Haydock Newmarket Pontefract Totals Backing last time out winners who won at Grade 4 tracks, and have their next run at the six racecourses listed above produces a return on investment of (to Betfair SP) over 27.5% which is pretty impressive for a backing system. If you limit to Ayr only (less bets and less profit), you can boost that percentage to a massive 71% or thereabouts food for thought, I am sure you will agree. The Patriarch Presents... Follow the Winning 2-Year Olds The Patriarch this month turns his attention to 2-year-old horses, and shows us how to profit when they run up a winning sequence... For this month I have two ideas for flat racing and they are both perfectly suited to start at around this point in the flat season. One of the ideas is specifically for 2-year-olds, and the other is for all ages. Let s start with the juveniles. Go to or use the Racing Post Newspaper. On a standard race card look under the age column. The horses to focus on will have a 2 in this column. Take a look at the screenshot below: 13. Another way for finding 2-year old races is to look at the description of the race. Above you will see a Maiden Stakes race. Because 2-year olds are obviously newcomers to races, they will almost exclusively begin their racing careers in Maiden Stakes races. Another race type where you will find 2-year olds is in Nursery races. These races are effectively 2 year old handicaps. The simplest way, though, for finding 2-year olds is to look at the age column as shown above These 2-year olds tend to divide expert racing opinion. I know some professional punters who confine their horse betting to 2-year-old races only, and others tend to avoid them entirely. Their thinking goes something like this... The 2-year old supporters would argue that they haven t yet had time to learn any bad racing habits; they are still enthusiastic, keen and give of their best at all times. The races are mostly of a uniform distance of five or six furlongs (until later in the season) and mostly over straight courses which makes the form in these races much more reliable. Also, weight doesn t seem to have the same stopping effect on a good juvenile as it does on an older animal. The anti-juvenile brigade say that these youngsters haven t yet learned how to race. They can run but don t know how to do it properly to win. They are green, as they say, and also haven t developed fully physically to perform their best. Whatever the arguments, my plan, as you ll see, would seem to satisfy both sides of the debate. The best 2-year olds each year will build up a sequence of winning races, sometimes up to double figures, but we ll be satisfied with five. And how do we find such winners? Easy. We wait and watch to see any 2-year old that wins two consecutive races. We are hoping to find please turn over...

14 some that will win five in a row and this way we are guaranteed to find any that do. After seeing a horse win two races consecutively we step in and back it with 2 points to win its next race. It is a little early in the flat season for any 2 year old to have won two consecutive races. If we return to the earlier screenshot of a two year old race, we can see whether a horse has won 2 consecutive races by looking in the Form Column, arrowed below, and looking for a 11. After backing the 2-year-old horse with two consecutive wins, for 2 points, in its next race, we note the result. If the horse loses then we ve lost 2 points, but if it wins at, let s say, 2/1 we bank the return from 1 point but set aside the return from the other point (3 points) to invest on that same horse the next time it runs. Then it will carry its normal one point stake, plus the winnings of 3 points, making 4 in all. If it wins again at 2-1 then bank the winnings from 1 point, and the winnings from the 3 points (9) will be placed on the horse the next time it runs. This will be our treble or the five wins we re looking for, and we stop there. Also, of course, we stop at any point when the horse loses. But just to complete our example of a treble we place the 9 points, plus the normal one stake on the horse s next run, and if once more it wins at 2-1 we have a return of 3 points from the one stake and 27 points from the treble. In total we have won , or 32 points from total stakes of 4 points. It truly is quite a smart bet when you think about it. Whatever juvenile scores five (or more) consecutive wins you are sure to be on it with your winnings of three singles and a treble. The worst that can happen to you is losing 2 points if the first leg of the treble fails. After that, if the second leg loses you lose two points but have 1 14 winner, and so maybe a profit, depending on the winner s price. If the third leg loses, you again lose two points but have 2 winners and an almost certain profit, again depending on the winners prices. The unknown quantity is how many 2-year olds will win five consecutive races. But when they do we ll have collected our treble. A vintage betting plan from the Patriarch vaults My second plan was an old established one when I first came across it more than 50 years ago. Its principles, however, still apply today, and now is the time to put it into operation. Strangely enough, it has a slight similarity to my first idea. We are concerned with Handicap races only, and what we re looking for are horses that have won two handicap races in the current season, but unlike my first plan these two Handicaps don t have to be consecutive, although it is all right if they are. Any two handicap wins will do. Using click on Cards, then choosing a flat race meeting, click on Show all racecards for this meeting on one page. This enables you to view the races at the meeting in greater detail. The above menu shows you which races are Handicaps. At Leicester, the Handicap races are the 620pm, 750pm, and 850pm. It is from these races that we will seek to find a horse who has had two wins this current season. Indeed, in the 750pm Leicester Race, there are two possible qualifying Handicap horses.

15 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to This race is a Handicap (as can be seen in the bold heading next to the time of the race), and in Goldstorm and Carazam, we have two horses who have won twice this season. Preference would be for Carazam though, who has 2 wins this season, as Goldstorm has won three times already this season: form is read from left to right. The number on the far right is the latest race run. If you see an in the Form, this shows that any races to the left of the were run last season. Any races to the right of the were run in this season. Carazam has run four races this season, finishing He has, then, won two races, finished 9th and 7th in the other two races. The idea is that if a horse can win 2 Handicaps it is showing a good level of form. We now look at that second Handicap win, and in particular we look at the horse that came second in it. Using simply click on the name of the horse in order to access the form in greater detail. If that horse carried more weight than the winner, even by 1lb, and was beaten by not more than two lengths, then we note it for its next race and back it then. From the example above, Charitable Act is a qualifier for the system because he was only beaten ¾ of a length, and while Carazam carried 10 stone 9 lbs, Charitable Act carried 11 stone. To find out when a qualifying horse is running again, click on the horse s name at the race shown above, and then at Entries. We look now at the 2nd Handicap win this season. This is the latest win, which occurred on 27th April By clicking on the date above, we can access the actual race details. Carazam won this Handicap race. The horse who came 2nd is Charitable Act. In order to ascertain whether Charitable Act carried more weight than Carazam, look to the Wgt column. Carazam carried 10 stone 9 lbs in this race. Charitable Act carried 11 stone in this race. In order to find the distance Charitable Act was beaten by, look at the column arrowed above. Charitable Act was beaten by ¾ of a length. 15 Alternatively, each day, go to hover your mouse over Cards and select Runners Index. This lists the runners for a given day, in alphabetical order. The logic is fairly clear with qualifying horses such as Charitable Act. A horse that can give weight to a good double win Handicapper, and be beaten by not too far, has put up a really good performance. This next race in which we back our qualifier doesn t have to be a Handicap although it probably will be. If it wins that race we then discard it. If it loses it gets another chance in its next race. If it wins that we then leave it alone, but if it loses then it gets one last chance. In other words, after becoming a qualifier it gets three chances to win, stopping at a winning run or after three losses. If you wish, you could stake the three races with 1, 2 and 3 points. It is surprising how many good-priced winners it has thrown up over the years. Long may it continue to do so. In Charitable Act s case then, the horse lost its next race on 9th May 2013 as seen below. It therefore has 2 more chances. please turn over...

16 The Classic System Profits again... Do you remember my Classic System? I first mentioned it quite a few years ago now and it has won every year since and again this year. If you didn t do it it s too late now, but keep it in mind for next year. We back the favourites in the five classic races, with increasing stakes, stopping at a winner. So it is 5 points on the favourite in the 2,000 Guineas, 10 points on the 1,000 Guineas, 15 points on the Oaks, 20 points on the Derby and 25 on the St Leger, stopping at the first winner. So this year we had just the one bet with the favourite winning the 2,000 Guineas at TESTERS WANTED Please me at whatreallywins@yahoo.co.uk with TESTERS in the Subject Box, if you d like to become one of a select band of testers for us at What Really Wins Money. We re looking for committed testers with a passion for betting systems, collating results, and reporting back in a timely and frequent manner. In return you ll be at the front of the queue for all of the new, hot betting systems and tipsters on the market. It s a long-term relationship, so get ing if you want to be a tester and save yourself hundreds of pounds buying new systems and tipsters. Publisher Recommends 2, in just 45-days? Simplicity is genius. (So said my close showbiz pal Albert Einstein). And this principle can be perfectly applied to the Price Equalisation Method, the latest betting system from Andrew David. Andrew will be familiar to readers of What Really Wins Money. He s written some great articles for the newsletter over the years and always imparts simple, effective and profitable betting advice. And that simplicity and effectiveness is perfectly showcased with the Price Equalisation Method. How does it work? The PEM looks for just ONE profit signal in horse racing - and that s it! Once you know the PEM you ll wonder why you didn t come up with the idea yourself. Using the Betfair Horse Racing Markets the PEM can effectively spot when the bookmakers are manipulating the markets, and when the bookmakers become interested in one particular horse, you should too! These hidden clues as to the horses the bookies fear in certain races will become second nature after practice. Soon you ll be spotting the hidden gambles that no one else knows about... As with all of Andrew s products he doesn t ever try to inflate the profit potential or hide any losses. After taking a princely sum of 6,000 from one bookmaker, Andrew was politely told to P(em) off! There s no more form analysis or any of that kind of stuff. All you have to do is open up Betfair s horse racing market, and open another website, wait for a signal, and bet, always at decent odds. And reap the long term profits. I highly recommend this for its sheer simplicity and the great long term profits. I am sure you will agree with these 2 PEM ers once you ve tried the Price Equalisation Method: Been using PEM for sometime now and the method can be summed up in 1 word - profitable! I can see what you mean now when you say its a way of identifying hidden gambles that would otherwise not appear on the radar. Price of winners are also generous and worth waiting for when they do arrive! After some practice my eyes are now drawn to the PEM signals like a magnet and I ve found leaving it as late as possible to place my bets is more accurate. Took my daughters across the border to Marbella for some shopping from my winnings last month. Ashok - Gibralter You can try it for yourself for 30 days risk-free here: 16