Clive s Bespoke Betting Systems

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2 Introduction Every month in What Really Wins Money, I share with you my Home grown systems, and update on their profitability. These homegrown systems have one thing in common. There is no form analysis required whatsoever! Yep, that s right. You don t need to know one end of a horse from another ( although it does help if you are feeding the horse sugar lumps.) These homegrown systems and their selections can usually be found with ease at free websites such as I update readers each month on these systems progress as well as the best staking plans which wring out every last cent of profit. Clive Keeling 1

3 Skyrocket your profits with this amazing staking plan have been keeping a record of all perceived two horse I races in the UK and Ireland in the hope that I can find a pattern as regards the performances of the 1st and 2nd favourites in the following areas:»» Win Only»» Place Only»» Laying the favourite to win the race»» Laying the 2nd favourite to win the race At this early stage in my analysis I may have stumbled upon an intriguing Place Only backing strategy which I would urge you to check out yourself. It is the 75% strike rate currently (with 185 horses finishing 1st and 2nd out of 243 runners) that has got me excited. I passed this idea by you in May s edition of What Really Wins Money. I have now collated my results and the profit figures are very impressive for the first six months of this year. With this backing strategy, we are looking at perceived two-horse races. Here s a refresher from May s WRWM... I get my perceived two-horse races from the Racing Post at This information is free. Here s how you can access it: 2

4 Go to click on CARDS, where you will gain access to today s horse racing cards. Under each meeting, click on show all race cards for this meeting on one page. Go through the race cards until you come across a betting forecast which looks like the one below: Let s look a little closer at the betting forecast: This is a perceived two-horse race. Why? Va vite is the 13/8 betting forecast favourite, and Brassick is the second favourite in the betting forecast at 5/2. Look at the price gap to the third favourite, Points of View: 5/ /1. This hints that the race will be dominated by the front two in the betting forecast, or in other words, this is a perceived two-horse race. I say perceived, because the betting forecast odds are not 3

5 the actual odds, but are the opinion of a Racing Post journalist. The first and second favourites with the bookmakers might not be in the same order as they appear in the betting forecast at the Racing Post. Another easy strategy for you to follow which does not need any form analysis whatsoever! Having shortlisted these race types, we single out the favourite in the live betting market and place-back that favourite. But let me back up a moment: what is place-only betting? Are you familiar with each-way betting? It has been mentioned many times at What Really Wins Money Towers. Each-way betting is essentially backing a horse to win with a ½ stake, and backing the same horse to place only with a ½ stake. Place-only betting refers to the latter part of the each-way bet. The terms for place-only betting are as follows: In races where there are seven runners or less, a horse will successfully place only if it finishes 1st or 2nd. Do note though that when an eight-runner (or larger field) race is reduced to seven runners, the bookmakers will still pay out place only money on the 1st and 2nd. However, will pay out on the original three places (see below). This really is worth remembering. In races where there are eight runners or more, a horse will successfully place only if it finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd. In handicap races where there are 16+ runners, a horse 4

6 will successfully place only if it finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. There are three main place-only betting specialists: Paddy Power, The Tote and the Betting Exchanges. For the purposes of this strategy, we will be using the placeonly betting markets at This is what a typical place-only betting market looks like at In the menu on the left, it is the place market that we will be interested in. Here, I have accessed the place-only market for the 2.15 Carlisle. My results have been collated using the starting price, or SP. If you strike a bet using this strategy, I would recommend using Betfair s SP facility. If we were to place-only back Mr Matthews to SP, we will click on the blue button which says SP. 5

7 Once you have clicked on, the SP bets page will load. Note that you are reminded of the place terms for this particular race: in this case, 3 to be placed. Although the SP facility states: You are betting for Mr Matthews to win ; do not be confused. You are betting for Mr Matthews to win his place-only bet (i.e. finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd 3rd applies to races of 8 or more horses). Having collated results, I have noted how, on occasion, the Betfair SP market for place-only betting has offered some very good odds. I have concluded therefore that Betfair SP offers the greatest value for place-only backers. The profit/loss... After all, that s what you want to know about. Having listed apparent two-horse races, we need to wait until the race begins in order to determine the live market favourite. Once you have determined the favourite, placeonly bet to Betfair SP. 6

8 Since 1 January 2013, there have been 707 bets, a 79% strike rate, and a profit to 20 level stakes of 627. The graph is the ideal. From bottom left to top right, there s been a steady progression. Practicalities... There are generally several place-only bets daily. The ideal is to wait and see who the live market favourite is from qualifying races, then place-back the horse using Betfair SP. A 79% strike-rate currently ensures there are no worrisome long losing runs. Bets are frequent and bets are frequently successful. Betfair SP ensures at the time that we will get very competitively-priced odds for certain bets. The profit and strike rate can be increased further if we limit our selections to horses whose place-only odds are between 1.1 and 1.5. Under 1.1 and the risk/reward ratio is skewed. Over 1.5 and the number of unplaced horses increases as the odds increase. 7

9 Update Oct 13: Here s an update on the staking plan which has turned 100 into It s grabbed your attention? And mine as well!! Let s investigate further. The devastating staking plan is one of the featured staking plans used by the Staking Machine Yes, the betting bank has dipped below 100 the initial starting capital but I think any betting portfolio should include at least one strategy which has the potential for quick big returns. Here s a graph for the staking plan: A losing start, but since then this staking plan called The Pro Plan at the Staking Machine has really performed. The staking plan is, as far as I can tell, unique to the Staking Machine. A full explanation of the Staking Plan can be found at 8

10 Note that with the Pro Plan I have chosen to place only back selections priced between 1.1 and 1.5 odds in the Place Only market at betting to Betfair SP. In fact, filtering selections by these odds has tended to overcome the fluctuations in the profit graph. Update: So how has this little 2 horse race placer idea performed in the long term? Well, 2013 saw a profit of 469 to 10 stakes. This excited me somewhat. The 81% strike rate means it s kind to those with a heart condition as the winners flow with regularity. As to 2014, well as I write this we are on track for a consecutive year of profits. 9

11 Use the Lay Ladder Steps to Profit I d like to continue my unearthing of simple, effective, and profitable All-weather laying systems in this article... What I ve uncovered is a good, profitable laying strategy exclusively for the All-weather race meetings where: 1. selections are very easy to find and require no form analysis at all; 2. the maximum risk on any bet placed is not worrisome (controlled liability); 3. the staking plan is a take on the lay ladder but limits betting cycles to only three. Let me start therefore with number 3 the lay ladder. What is a lay ladder? Many moons ago there was a laying system on the market called the Bank Vault. It used a lay ladder as follows... Lay the favourite in the first five races of the day, and stop at the first successful lay. If the first favourite won his race (layers want horses to lose so this is not good!), then we lay the second favourite with enough money to cover the lost liability from race 1, as well as look to win our target profit of, say, 10 for the day. If the second favourite loses its race, then we stop for the day, and have met our profit target. If, however, the second favourite also won its race, then we lay the third favourite 10

12 with enough stake money to win back the lost liabilities from race 1 and 2, as well as win our profit target of 10. I hope you can see immediately the dangers of five favourites winning their races. The lay ladder s approach of trying to win back all losses, as well as the target, will result in horrendous, uncomfortable stakes, and the real possibility of huge losses, all in search of a 10 target. This is something that cannot be allowed. How, then, do we ensure a steady stream of losing favourites? There are three elements to success here...»» Focus on All-weather racing. Why are there so many good laying systems originating from All-weather racing? I m not sure but I can hazard a guess: perhaps the unique fibresand and polytrack surfaces are simply Marmite to some horses. The surfaces also induce kick-back during races, which is akin to the water spray from a Formula 1 car in the wet interfering with the vision of the car behind. So the fibresand/polytrack can be kicked back into the faces of some horses, leading them to underperform.»» Some races naturally attract the attentions of the layers. For me, for instance, Maidens (races for horses that are mostly 2-year-olds, who have not won races), Claiming Stakes races, and Sellers (this lot s next stop is Blackpool Pleasure Beach as donkeys!) spring to mind as the kinds of races where I would predict more shock results. 11

13 »» The odds. Favourites are favourites for a reason, so I decided to look at qualifying favourites whose odds are greater than 3.5 decimal odds (we use decimal odds, as these are the odds formats used at where we undertake our laying). Put these three factors together, I surmised, and we might have the framework for a laying strategy which can produce a steady stream of losers (losers are what us layers want, remember?!) The selection strategy This is simplicity itself. Look for any All-weather venue (find them at under Cards Today s Cards and any meeting with an (AW) after its name). Your next job is to make a note of the time of any races with the words Maiden, Claimer and Seller in the title. (I have arrowed the two qualifying races in the above meeting at Lingfield.) Finally, lay any favourite whose odds are above 3.5 at www. betfair.com. Why? I found out that there were too many favourites winning at lower odds. When checking the selections at odds 12

14 of greater than 3.5, since 1 January 2013, the longest losing sequence was two i.e. two favourites at odds of over 3.5 winning consecutive races. Now this excites me! When we use a lay ladder, which is a posh way of saying we are using loss retrieval, the first thing we want to see is a short losing streak over a sustained period of time (a year and a half is a fairly good yardstick). I always use the staking machine from machine.com as my money management tool. Let me show you the profit progression: The reason that loss retrieval has been off-putting for a number of punters is because there could be unlimited losses, but with this strategy, we use loss retrieval over a series of only three bets. If we do not get a winning bet within this three-bet cycle, we simply take the hit and move on. The strategy I share here had a longest losing sequence of only two. 13

15 Here are the losses which would have accrued in this case: Bet 65 saw a horse win its race (denoted by a 1 above in the WinLose column). This is not what we want as layers. The loss accrued here was 27. Bet 66 saw our target profit increase to 37 (a 27 loss from bet 65 and our 10 profit target). Bet 66 won its race. Again, this is not what we want as layers. The loss at this stage is Bet 67 sees us look to win the 27 loss from Bet 65, the loss from Bet 66, and 10 profit, equalling If this horse wins its race, the losses are horrendous. That, folks, is what you have to accept if this form of betting appeals to you. On this occasion, though, the horse lost its race and our cycle was ended with a profit. Bottom line If this form of betting makes you squeamish, I understand. Under certain circumstances, and limiting the betting cycle to three bets only within one lay ladder, we can limit losses and hopefully ride a long run of wins (the longest winning run I experienced was 16). I post these selections at under miscellaneous lay systems. As you can see, loss retrieval does not suit everyone, but 14

16 I do like to include the odd high-risk strategy for betting portfolios. With this strategy I would encourage you to take out your initial betting bank if you were lucky enough to double it. Since 5 January, laying the favourites in Maiden, Claimers and Sellers to win a target of 10, and a lay ladder betting cycle of only three (as above: only three bets in the cycle) has turned 100 into 891. A target of 10 may be a profit to work towards, dependent on the size of your betting bank initially. The longest losing sequence remains two horses. For how long it remains two horses I don t know. This is a strategy, though, where you reap the rewards while you can, and profit-take on a regular basis because of the high-risk element. Can it be applied perhaps to football matches this new season, laying teams at odds of as near to 3.5 as possible? I will certainly start monitoring these for you and report back. 15

17 How to Profit by Laying Top- Weights in Handicaps at All- Weather Tracks With winter on its way the Turf Flat season will be drawing to a close by the time you read my mutterings, so it is time to look to the future, which means either All-weather on the flat or National Hunt, and I have plumped for the former (for now). In this article I will be looking specifically at the 10-year stats for horses running on All-weather tracks in two categories: i. Those running with a penalty ii. Top-weighted horses in handicap races on the Allweather The question, then, is whether the conventional wisdom that backing top weights in handicaps and penalised horses will make you a regular profit on the All-weather tracks is true. I suspect the theory is steeped in sensible enough logic. Generally speaking, All-weather racing is pretty low-grade stuff, so with the best horse in a race liable to be forced to carry top weight, and any runner carrying a penalty being a recent winner (so in obviously good form), will backing these two types of horses yield a profit? All data is taken from 1st January 2002 to date: a period covering just over 10 years. It includes every All-weather 16

18 track, including Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Kempton (all race on an artificial surface known as Polytrack ); and on Southwell s unique Fibresand surface. Some say the form can be carried from one track to another; others that they are all different and need to be treated accordingly we will soon find out! Firstly, go to and locate on the race cards all handicaps on All-weather courses (denoted with an AW in brackets). This is easy to do as each race has a title and every handicap will have the word handicap and/ or the word nursery in the title (a nursery is a handicap restricted to two-year-olds). On this particular day, there are two All-weather meetings (the handicaps and nursery handicaps are underlined)... Horse number one, at the top of the race card, will be the top-weight, BUT we do need to check he or she is the only one. Have a quick look at the weight he or she carries and 17

19 then look at the weight of horse number two: there needs to be a difference, however small, otherwise they are joint topweights and we need to consider them both, as I have with these statistics. You can also see the Class of the race in the race title (we will use them later). Let s take a look at one of the races from the above screenshot: The word handicap is found within the title of the race. I have also underlined the Class of race as this appears within our stats breakdown. The horse s weight is found under the WGT column. Prim and Proper is the stand-alone topweighted horse in this race at (9-7) 9 stone 7 lbs with Gower Princess the next best at (9-6) 9 stone 6 lbs. Now we know how to identify the top-weight horse in handicaps at All-weather courses, let s look at the stats... 18

20 Top-weights in all handicaps at all All-weather courses over the last 10 years: Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss Betfair SP Profit/Loss Starting Price 16,860 2, % , Whoever suggested you can simply back handicap topweights on the All-weather tracks and make money is in for a very rude awakening it simply doesn t happen (see above). Now we need to have a look by track to see if that makes any difference (I am not holding my breath)... Top-weights in handicaps by track: Track Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price Kempton 4, % Lingfield 4, % Southwell Wolverhampton 2, % , % With the exception of Lingfield we failed to turn a profit at any track adding a lay option in to our conclusion (see below)... Top-weights in handicaps by grade of race (denoted by the word Class in the race title in our example above, the race was a Class 6 race): 19

21 Class Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/Loss Betfair SP Profit/Loss Starting Price Not 1, % classified % % % , % , % , % , % Interesting stuff! If we back top-weights in races classed 1, 2, 3, and 5 we can make money and if we lay top-weights in races classed 4 and 6 we can make even more money! Top-weights in handicaps by grade of race per track... Kempton: Class Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price % % % , % , % %

22 Lingfield: Class Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price Not classified % % % % % , % , % % Southwell: Class Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price Not % classified % % % % % , % %

23 Wolverhampton: Class Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price Not classified % % % % % , % , % % Conclusions: The old wives tale is exactly that! As you can see, there are ways to make small amounts by backing top-weights in the better-quality races, but it looks to me as if laying topweights in handicaps at the All-weather tracks with the exception of Lingfield and in Classes 4 and below is the best way to use these statistics to turn a profit, assuming the past is repeated in the future of course! Now we need to do the same thing for penalised horses, which are usually horses who won either last time out or very recently and are now running again before the handicapper can change their weight allocation. To avoid an unfair advantage they are forced to carry a penalty (usually 6lbs, but this can differ) over and above their handicap weight, but don t worry, they are easy to spot! 22

24 Again, we are only talking handicaps, but this time we look down the list of runners to find any with something like 6ex or 4ex etc to the right of their name (see below). These are the ones we are interested in. In this race, note the 6x next to Compton Bird s name. This denotes a penalty. The horse has also won its last race (see the 1 on the far right of the Form column). Let s look then at penalised horses (such as Compton Bird) in handicaps at all All-weather courses: Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price 3, % A profit ensured (to Betfair SP), albeit a small one, so there may be more to this let s look by track next. Penalised horses in handicaps by track... Kempton: Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price %

25 Lingfield: Southwell: Wolverhampton: Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price % Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price % Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit/ Loss Starting Price 1, % Lastly, what if we looked at prices? Could we increase the profit or strike rate further by ignoring the first two in the betting? Third-favourites or above (all All-weather tracks): Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit Loss Starting Price 1, %

26 First and second-favourites only: Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/ Loss Betfair SP Profit Loss Starting Price 1, % There are possibilities to break this down even further with some trainers more adept at placing their horses to win races: sometimes with a long-term plan to win two, or even three, races quickly, exploiting a favourable starting weight; while others simply throw a possibly tired from his excursions animal back into the fray under a penalty regardless. But as we can t easily tell one from the other we are better off dealing with the figures as they fall. One thing that does stand out (profit or not) is the surprisingly high strike rate of almost one winner in four I am sure those of you using fancy staking plans could easily find a way to make that pay. Bottom line: The indiscriminate backing of top-weights in handicap races on All-weather tracks just does not generate as good a profit as expected. Laying top-weights in Class 4 and Class 6 handicap races should turn a reasonable profit over time (in particular in Class 6 handicap races). Backing the top-weight in Class 4 races at Lingfield to Betfair SP has generated a good historic profit and could continue to do so. 25

27 Backing the top-weight in handicaps at Wolverhampton in Class 5 races has yielded a solid profit over the last ten years; as has laying the top-weight in Class 6 races at the same venue. There is a small profit to be made by backing penalised runners at Betfair SP in races at Lingfield and Wolverhampton (ignoring Southwell and Kempton) and with a high strike rate (nearly one in every four penalised horses winning at these venues) a staking system could be utilised. There seems to be a way to increase profits by ignoring the first and second-favourites (I always suspected they may be over-bet), but in my opinion, not enough to bother about. Make sure you check out where these selections will be posted daily. Update May 14: Laying penalised horses on the All Weather... Since November 2013, a 100 betting bank has turned into 339, looking to win 10 per lay bet. 26

28 If you want to squeeze out a little more profit, only lay horses at odds of over 3.5. The number of bets has reduced considerably, the strike rate increased to 87% and the profit increased by nearly 100 more, as you can see below: The number of bets has reduced considerably, and with a strike rate of 86% and a profit figure to 10 stakes of 435, this lay strategy deserves your consideration. The All-weather season proper will be upon us as the Turf Flat season ends and autumn/winter approaches. Bets are sporadic at the moment. There have only been three since I updated you last month. The number of bets has reduced considerably, and with a strike rate of 86% and a profit figure to 10 stakes of 520, this lay strategy deserves your consideration. We are now entering a period when the All-Weather meetings will be a regular feature of the autumn/winter schedule. Please note that this profit was realised by laying all selections at all odds, so please bear that in mind. There have 27

29 been some double-figure odds selections, which means liabilities can fluctuate. Still, the strategy is simplicity itself and is profiting steadily. 28

30 The Key to Profiting From Flat Racing Maidens As you know, I am a big advocate of niche betting: i.e. finding a specific niche. From a horse racing perspective, I would advise looking at the following niche:»» Flat Racing maiden races»» Eight or nine runners»» Betting each way (backing a horse to win and to place) on the 3rd and 5th favourites in the Betfair Win Market. It s a very simplistic niche but there is good reasoning behind the methodology. Why Flat racing maiden races? Let me show you a maiden race on the all-weather (which is currently the only Flat racing about until the Turf season begins). How do we know this is a maiden race? Simply look at the title of the race: Maiden Stakes. 29

31 Why is this a good race to focus on? Look at the form column on the extreme left of the above race card. What do you see from Smalib Monterg, Galway Gem, Al Meezan and Street Artist? Nothing. That s right: no form at all. These horses are debutants. The top two horses on the race card, Keep Kicking and Mickelson, both have only had the one run. All in all, it is not the ideal betting medium. The horses with no form could be anything they are the proverbial dark horses. The horses with only a single run could improve rapidly, or they could need a couple more runs for the penny to drop (that s a phrase you ll hear a lot from the TV pundits covering the Flat Season in the prevailing months). Why 8/9 runners? Regular readers will know why! We focus on eight or nine runners because we will be betting each way, and 8 runners is the minimum amount of runners required to pay out for 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Why the 3rd and 5th favourites? I chose the 3rd favourite because he is near the head of the market, yet likely to be at a price which is reasonable for each way betting (4/1 is an ideal minimum). The 5th favourite is on the cusp between the head of the betting market and the perceived outsiders, without actually being an out and out outsider (if that makes sense!). 30

32 Select the 3rd and 5th favourites from the Betfair win-only market, and back them with half stakes to place-only and half stakes to win (which is effectively each-way betting). The Wolves appears at as shown below: The 3rd favourite would be the 3rd best priced favourite. From the above odds (we are focussing on the back column), the 3rd favourite at the time of writing is Keep Kicking. The 5th favourite at time of writing is Al Meezan. Ideally, you would look at the betting market as late as possible. The later you can look, the more accurate the market will be. And that s all there is to it. To recap: during this Flat season, focus on Turf Flat Maiden Stakes races, of between 8 and 9 runners. Select the 3rd and 5th favourites in the Betfair win-only market and back them with ½ stakes to place and ½ stakes to win. 31

33 Irish Bumpers Laying the favourite in Irish Bumpers I feel that Irish National Hunt Flat races, better known as Bumpers, will be successful vehicles for us to lay the favourites, if the early signals are a sign of future potential. After 127 bets since November 2012, simple level-stakes laying (to win a nominal 10), has currently turned an initial 100 betting bank into Two recent consecutive winners did not help matters. This is very encouraging for the future. I think the choice of Irish Bumpers is an apt one. After all, these are National Hunt Flat races, or to put it another way, a Flat race for potential future Jumps horses. The horses in these races, as with Maidens on the Flat, are generally inexperienced, and these races serve a greater purpose in providing experience, rather than being seen as a mustwin from the trainers perspectives. A current 70% strike rate is perfectly adequate, given we are laying favourites in these Irish National Hunt Flat races. Average odds at the moment are just over evens, or 3.05 in decimals (as decimals are used by the betting exchanges). I wrote an article in the near past on the versatility of the Maria Staking Plan on the lay systems I am currently generating for these Home-Grown articles. The Maria Staking Plan works well in laying favourites in these National Hunt Flat races in Ireland. 32

34 What I will do in the gap between now and August is to backtrack (not back fit!) the performance of favourites in Irish Bumpers before November 2012, in order to see if there is longevity in the poor performances of favourites in these race types. As a refresher, look out for race titles such as Flat race, I.N.H. Flat, or National Hunt Flat race. The races are usually found at the end of an Irish Jumps race card (see below)... Update I mentioned the idea of laying the favourite in Irish Bumpers, or Irish National Hunt Flat races. It seems to be an idea worthy of attention. Irish Bumper races normally appear as the last race of the day on Irish Jumps racing cards and can be distinguished by the following in the race title: INH FLAT RACE. A current 69.8% strike rate since 2 November 2012 has turned a starting 100 betting bank into 367, looking to win 10 per race. I will continue to report back on laying the favourite in Irish Bumpers. Details on how to find races, and place level 33

35 stakes lay bets, can be found in the accompanying video. Do note that I do not include joint favourites. If you are laying two horses in one race, you immediately increase the chances of one of these horses winning its race. This system is reaching its 12-month anniversary soon, and as we move into the Jumps Season proper, we should see an increase in selections. It s a nice, workable, and profitable, niche laying system, which is very straightforward. As you see with all of my other favourites-based laying systems, it is uncanny how the strike rate seems to fall in line with the general belief that 33% of favourites win their races (thus 67% do not and the strike rate for this strategy is 69.8%). Update A current 69.8% strike rate since 2nd November 2012 has turned a starting 100 betting bank into 367, looking to win 10 per race. I will continue to report back on laying the favourite in Irish Bumpers. Details on how to find races, and place a levelstakes lay bet can be found in the accompanying video on the members section of Do note that I do not include joint favourites: if you are laying two horses in one race, you immediately increase the chances of one of these horses winning its race. 34

36 It s seen a nice upwards movement from the profit graph: Update Nov 13 I must say how pleasantly surprised I am with this lay idea, and I am confident that it is something you can move forward with. To recap, we look at Irish racing only, and specifically the Jumps meetings. Make a note of any race that has the words INH Flat Race in the title. This indicates that this race is a National Hunt Flat race; more commonly termed a Bumper. Laying favourites in these Irish Bumpers has ensured a nice profit-progression, as you can see in this graph: 35

37 I have been following this idea for a year now: using level stakes of just 10 per lay (i.e. we are looking to win 10 per lay) has turned a 100 betting bank into This represents a 32-point profit for the year. For those of you who want to lessen risk even further, consider laying these Irish Bumper favourites, looking to lose a maximum of 10 per lay (this is known as fixed liability laying). Even with this very risk-averse laying strategy, a 100 betting bank has turned into 293, which represents a 19-point profit for the year. There are other staking plans which produce truly exciting returns, and I will feature these in the accompanying Home-Grown System Updates video on the members area of WRWM. 36

38 With a general theme this month of profiting from laying favourites in horse racing, I feel these Irish Bumpers are worthy of inclusion into your betting portfolio. To give you an idea of what to expect, there have been 193 selections from November 2012 to date, with 70% losing their races at average odds of 3.05 (which represents 2/1 in fractional terms). The longest losing sequence over a year was 3, and the longest winning sequence was 10. Please do look at the graph above again, and you ll note a period of losses at the very beginning. I would therefore not be too concerned if hitting a period of losers. Remember: we are dealing with favourites and we also have our focus firmly on the long term. Update Jan 14 This strategy is simplicity itself. Look for the words INH Flat Race in the race title at race cards in Irish Jumps venues, and lay the favourite. We have now had 226 selections since November 2012, with a 68% strike rate. A 100 starting betting bank, laying favourites in these INH Flat races (also known as Bumpers ), to level stakes ( 10 for illustration) has turned into

39 The profit graph shows a smooth progression: This is the simplest staking plan. There is currently a period of stagnation, as you can see at the top right-hand corner of the graph. We do, though, have a year s worth of results under our belts and I like what I see. Update March 14 We have now had 49 selections since November 2012, with a 66% strike rate. A 100 starting betting bank, laying favourites in these INH Flat races (also known as Bumpers ), to level stakes ( 10 for illustration) has turned into

40 The profit graph shows a slight dip as the winters Jumps season winds down: This is the simplest staking plan. If you want to take more risk, and with more risk more reward, here are a couple of staking plans which might interest you 39

41 How to Create your OWN Winning Betting System As an add on to my home grown system updates, I thought I would provide you with a few ideas on how you can create your very own horse racing back or lay betting system. The first step is to identify a niche area and then what I call a sub niche. For example: I determine that I will focus on Horse Racing. The two niches here are the Flat and the Jumps. I decide to focus on Flat Racing, the sub niches for Flat Racing are Turf Flat Racing and All Weather Flat Racing. In this example I choose All Weather Racing. The next sub niche would be a specific race type - in this case I decide to focus on selling races and claiming stakes races on the all weather venues in England and Ireland. A sub niche of this could be to focus on the performance of the favourites, or 2nd favourites or 3rd favourites. Further sub niches could include:»» Field size. We could focus, for instance on 8 or 9 horse races, thereby opening up a possible each way backing system or even a place only laying or backing system (with the advent of place only Betting as an independent betting market at and at select bookmakers.)»» Distance. We could focus specifically on race distances, and choose to look at 5 furlong, 6 furlong or 7 furlong races for instance, or perhaps focus on 1 mile 4 furlong 40

42 races specifically. The latter, in my view, could be fertile ground for laying the favourites. A lot of jockeys find this distance hard to gauge.»» Jockey type. Focus specifically on amateur riders? Or lady jockeys?»» Specific venue. The All weather venues in the UK and Ireland include Dundalk, Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Southwell, Kempton. For example, some punters believe Southwell s all weather venue to be akin to horses running on soft/heavy turf ground, thereby becoming a marmite venue for some horses who just love it, and others who just hate it. There is one final secret to becoming a successful betting system creator and that is an ability to take your idea back in history to check historical performance. This can be achieved by using and their results section which goes back to 1975, when I, ahem, was not (clears throat) even born yet! Case studies Let me take you through a few ideas of my own Laying the favourite in the Last Race of the Day This is a very specific niche isn t it? We quite simply look at the last race of the day in England and Ireland only, and lay the favourite. It has proved profitable over time using specific staking plans which I reveal in my home-grown systems update. How can we delve further into this niche? We can look at the performance of the favourites at different odds bands. 41

43 At present, I am noting the performance of the favourite in the 3rd race of the day - I wanted to see if it is true that only 33% of favourites win their races over time. If this is the case, then laying a favourite in a specific race could prove profitable with the correct staking plan. This niche could be furthered by looking at the performance of the 2nd or 3rd favourites in the last race of the day, or the 3rd race of the day. Note too that I can backtrack (backtrack rather than back fit there is a difference) to build up a more in-depth look at performance for my niche idea over time. Why can I backtrack? Because it is easy to find the 3rd race of the day from a past race card. Sellers, claimers and maidens at All Weather Venues In this niche I chose all weather races and race types which are renowned as tough to read races. The idea here is to determine whether the favourite underperforms (and so becomes a candidate for a good lay system) or whether the favourite wins more than his fair share (after all these sellers, claimers and maidens can be construed as weak races in some cases so a favourite is favourite by right?) 8/9 runner races My specific niche area here is the number of runners. Regular readers know that 8/9 runners are the minimum number of runners required in order to pay out on 3 places for each way betting. Focussing specifically on 8/9 runner races opens up a whole world of possible betting possibilities. These include 42

44 »» The performance of the favourite in the live betting show.»» The performance of the Racing Post Betting Forecast favourite.»» The performance of other horses in the race. For instance, 6th favourites in the Racing Post Betting Forecast tend not to place regularly.»» How do certain horses perform for the purposes of each way betting? In this case, we can profit from a horse finishing 2nd and 3rd, not just winning. Horse racing is not the sole preserve of this niche and sub niche idea. Football betting A niche here could be the Premiership. A sub niche could be the performance of a specific team within the Premiership, or the performance of newly promoted sides to the Premiership, or the traditional Big 4. A sub niche could be the performance of a Top 4 team when playing at home against a newly promoted side. Alternatively, we could focus on a specific betting market. Laying the Draw is an old chestnut, or perhaps over 2.5 goals betting (note I have mentioned only over 2.5 goals rather than over and under 2.5 goals), or odds specific betting (for instance focussing only on football matches in the premiership where the favourite is the away side and is priced at between 1.7 and 2 in odds). The key ingredient is to make sure that you can backtrack your key market. In this case then, odds specific betting 43

45 might not be viable, unless you keep a diary yourself of matches which qualify. There are websites such as and www. soccerstats.com and where you can check a whole host of football matches for your specific teams. Learn to get to know teams, and bet only when they play in their sub niche (for instance Stoke City at home, Fulham away from home, Manchester United at home). Bottom Line Creating a winning betting system is not as difficult as you think, as long as you include the following ingredients. Look for a niche where firstly we can back check results. This is the key to success. If your betting idea consistently profits in the present and in the past, it could profit equally as well in the future. Look for niches, and then sub niches in order to effectively specialise in one area. Specialisation is another key to success. If you focus on over 2.5 goals markets, you will begin to attune yourself to matches most likely to produce the 3 goals required to profit. If you focus on 8/9 runner races, you can begin to note over time how the favourite performs (and even how the 6th favourite in the Racing Post Betting Forecast performs!) Do me at the usual address if you have a betting niche idea. I would be happy to track it on your behalf. 44