Welcome to Trial Spy!

Transcription

1 Contents 1) Contents 2) Welcome to Trial Spy! 3) FAQs 11) What time are selections sent? 13) Getting the best possible odds Part 1 14) Getting the best possible odds Part 2 15) Getting the best possible odds and beating official results Part 3 16) Getting the best possible odds and beating official results Part 4 19) Getting the best possible odds and beating official results Part 5 23) Betting Options 24) Exotics 25) 2016 Annual Round Up - Trial Spy 29) Member Survey Summary 40) Big Results 41) The Edge 42) Topliners Found 43) Successful Futures Bets 44) Official Odds Recording 46) Testimonials 49) How to manage your betting banks following multiple services 55) How do I avoid getting banned by the Bookies? 58) Variance and the importance of sound bankroll management 60) Perspective 68) Betting Resolutions 71) Minimum Bet Laws NSW 74) Minimum Bet Laws VIC

2 Welcome to Trial Spy! Hi! Welcome to the Trial Spy service, and congratulations on taking this great step towards generating substantial long-term profits from your horse racing betting. Since February 2013 (as at 9 September 2018) Trial Spy has turned a bank of 100 units to units; a profit of units. That s a 667% Return on Investment (ROI) at a 10.0% Profit on Turnover (POT). This translates to a profit of $66,741 for a member betting $100 per unit (which is an average bet size of only $50). This of course assumes that the member has not increased their unit size since starting in January $100 per unit is an appropriate betting amount for a $10,000 bank, but each time the bank doubles for example, the unit size invested should double also. Hence the figures above are ultra conservative when compared to the opportunity for members increasing their bank size over time. You can download the latest detailed excel results spreadsheet here: All the best.

3 FAQs Below are some Frequently Asked Questions to help maximize your Trial Spy membership. 1) What is a betting bank and how does unitized staking work? The Bet Units shown in the SMS and show you how many units to invest on the selection. Please note that you need a 100 unit starting bank. As a very rough figure, we often aim to collect around 5 units on each winner (5% of our betting bank). However sometimes we will collect less than 5 units (particularly with savers), and sometimes when there is a large overlay we will collect much greater than 5 units (for example over 22 units has been collected on single win bets, and we have collected 10 units or more from one bet on many occasions). We generally invest somewhere between 0.5 unit and 3 units (0.5% to 3% of our betting bank) on any one race. This helps us to protect our bank against variance and any potential losing runs. This methodology has proven to be the most effective balance of risk and reward over many years, and hence enables us to not only maximize our profits, but equally as vital never risk losing our bank to the point where we are unable to keep investing, which is the road to ruin for most punters. The bank is vital to protect against variance and ensure you are protected from inevitable periods of drawdown. This is a safe, simple and effective way of applying the well-known 'Kelly Criterion' (I suggest you google it if you would like to learn more), which is widely regarded as the most financially effective way to invest on horse racing selections with a proven edge over the marketplace. The dollar value of the bank for each member may vary (some of you may start with $2,000 and others $50,000) but you must then divide this dollar amount by 100 to calculate your unit value. For example, a $2000 starting bank means that you will be betting $20 per unit ($2000 divided by 100).

4 A $10,000 starting bank means you will be betting $100 per unit ($10,000 divided by 100). When you receive your App Notification & we list the number of units that should be bet on each horse. To determine your bet size, you simply multiply your unit value by the recommended bet units. Bet units x unit value = the dollar amount you bet on that horse. Let s show a recent example from Trial Spy: Ipswich R3 #8 Zoutano 0.1 units win #8 Zoutano 0.3 units place Remember Bet Units x Unit Value = the amount you bet on that horse. If you have a $10,000 betting bank ($100 unit value): Win: 0.1 units x $100 = $10 Place: 0.3 units x $100 = $30 With a $10,000 bank you will be betting $10 to win and $30 to place on Zoutano. If you have a $5,000 betting bank ($50 unit value): Win: 0.1 units x $50 = $5 Place: 0.3 units x $50 = $15 With a $5,000 bank you will be betting 5 to win and $15 to place on Zoutano. If you have a $2,000 betting bank ($20 unit value): Win: 0.1 units x $20 = $2 Place: 0.3 units x $20 = $6 If you have a $2,000 betting bank you will be betting $2 to win and $6 to place on Zoutano. Zoutano won this race at an official price of $41 to win & $8.50 to place. Therefore this was a 4.1 unit collect for the win and a 2.55 collect for the place. Total collect of 6.65 units less investment of 0.4 units resulting in a profit of 6.25 units on this runner. Note Bet365 offered odds of $61, and Crownbet offered odds of $51 on this runner when the

5 bet was sent, hence many member obtained better results than those stated officially in the results sheet. 2) What is a saver? A saver bet is one where rather than backing the horse to win the full amount (usually around a 5 unit collect), we back the horse to collect enough to return our total investment in the race so that we essentially breakeven. It is usually used to back a horse we consider a danger to our main bet(s), but either isn t considered enough value in the market with which to place a full bet, or backing all runners as full bets would require too large an investment for the return. Example: Horse A: 1.5u at $4 = 6u potential return Horse B: 0.5u at $4 = 2u potential return Using the above example, Horse B was a saver bet. We backed Horse A for 1.5 units at $4 to return 6 units. We then backed Horse B as a saver for 0.5 units at $4. If Horse B wins, we collect 2.0 units (0.5u x $4), which would exactly offset our total 2.0 unit investment on the race. Hence for this race strategy, we make a strong profit if Horse A wins, and break even if Horse B wins. 3) Why are there no rated or minimum prices for Trial Spy? This is not a ratings service, it is a tips service. Markets on young horses and maidens can be volatile. My staking is based on a range of factors including race suitability, and inherent value/edge. I send out selections based on the market price at the time the selections are sent, or expected future available market price. I suggest generally mixing your bets between fixed and monitoring or betting late using Betfair SP/BOB/Top Fluc/Best Tote products. This is why I don't offer a minimum price for a runner. The key is following the staking and ensuring you get the best prices you can for each runner. I have analysed this approach for a number of years and found it the most profitable for the type of races and horses we are backing. Even if it may be considered counter-intuitive or against normal principles, it has worked successfully for me and members in both aiding profits and minimizing variance, and the results speak for themselves.

6 The other reason there is no minimum price is that I m concerned members would assume they should bet down to the minimum price at fixed prices, which may not be the case. For example a horse may be $16 in current markets, and the rated price or minimum price to take might be $8. But if I say a minimum price of $8, members may immediately back the horse at fixed prices down to $8, when perhaps they should have backed it down to say $12, but if they missed that, they instead should have waited as the horse would likely rebound to $16 or possibly greater later in betting. 4) How do you stake exotic bets and which bookies should be used for these bets? The unit staking we provide for exotics should be treated the same as normal win bets. Below, assume a 100 unit bank betting $100 per unit. For example with a trifecta, if we box 4 horses it costs 4x3x2 = $24. So we would say bet 0.24 units (for 100%) or 0.12 units (for 50%) If we box 5 horses in a trifecta it costs 5x4x3 = $60. So we would say bet 0.6 units (for 100%) or 0.3 units (for 50%) If we box 5 horses in a first four it costs 5x4x3x2 = $120. So we would say bet 1.2 units (for 100%) or 0.6 units (for 50%) Let s look at some examples: Sandown R1 Exacta- 3,5,7, Bet: Exacta, Units: 0.60 units, Canterbury R1 Exacta- 1,5,7,8, Bet: Exacta, Units: 1.20 units, The staking for exotics should be based on units. If you are betting $100 per unit, then the Sandown exacta would have cost you 0.6 x 100 = $60, and the Canterbury exacta would have cost you 1.2 x 100 = $120. You should definitely bet exotics with a corporate bookie rather than with the Tab/Tote. Firstly you get better odds (mid tote rather than one tote), and secondly the dividends reduce the more members bet through the Tab/Tote. I always advise having an account with as many corporate bookies as possible. With regards to exotics, each bookie offers a different product depending on whether it is a country, provincial or metropolitan meeting, and sometimes offer special exotic deals on certain meetings.

7 Again the key is having as many accounts as possible and seeing which bookie offers the best deal on each race where you are playing an exotic, as all their deals differ meeting to meeting. 5) Why do we back multiple horses in one race? We often use the strategy of backing multiple horses in a race. Sometimes we back multiple horses with each to collect 5 units or more, and sometimes we employ a back and save strategy, backing one or more horses to collect 5 units or more, and backing one or more horses to simply recoup our total race investment so that we break even. The key is to ignore how many horses we are backing in a race, and instead focus on how many units we are investing. Say for example you want to back a horse and we have effectively rated it a $2 chance. As a result, we will invest 5/2 = 2.5 units, in order to collect 5 units if it wins and pays $2. In another race, we might back 5 horses. Let s say effective rated price for each horse is $10. Hence, we will invest 5/10 = 0.5 units on each horse. 0.5 x 5 = 2.5. So, in this instance, we have again invested 2.5 units, and if every horse is paying $10 in the market, we will collect 5 units if any of the horses win. Hence the outcome is the same whether we back 1 horse of 5 horses. We have found backing multiple horses highly profitable, and it also helps to reduce variance and drawdown as we have more horses running for us, which helps us maintain a high race winning strike rate. I constantly review the results of backing multiple horses and the strategy continually delivers outstanding profits for members.

8 6) Betting advice When to bet Below is a summary of the abbreviations and assumptions in the App Notification or e- mails for tips. The guidance with each bet (straight after the 3rd best fixed price in the comments) is as follows: F - Expected/Likely Firmer in betting f - Possible firmer in betting - Unsure, could move either way d - Possible drifter in betting D - Expected/Likely Drifter in betting F - Take best fixed price available, is big current value f - Take most fixed, but maybe monitor a portion late if miss best early prices - Take half fixed, half monitor d - Take a portion early, but more later D - Is slight unders at present and is expected to get out in betting Example guidance (Fixed to Late split) F - 100/0 f - 75/25-50/50 d - 25/75 D - 0/100 Please note where you see a blank space, for the 50/50 bets, it is exactly that, there will be no F, f, d or D, just a blank space with no advice for the 50/50 ones. I will still advise BTSP, BFSP, TF or BOB as appropriate for runners where that is the best suggested option.

9 A few points to note: My guidance will be based on assessing the 3rd best fixed price quoted. So if you get a significantly higher price than stated in the & app notification, you might have a higher portion on fixed. Use your brain. Say you are in a meeting or a function and miss an early SMS and see it 2 hours later. And we have had a big go at something at $31 as an F and it's now $10. Don't just take $10 fixed because it's an F. You've missed it. Take it Betfair SP or BTSP and hope it drifts a bit back out. They usually will, often on Betfair, as people trade and other horses become value and hence are backed by others. Further info on assessing whether something is likely to firm or drift, and whether to lock in a fixed price or not, is provided in this Trial Spy Member's Information Pack. One option I believe needs to be utilised by all is using Betfair SP (with a minimum price) on the non-fixed portions of your bets. When you do that, it gives you the option to set a minimum price. What minimum price should you choose? Well start with the advised price, then use a combination of the unit stakes advised, and the guidance on whether the horse is expect to firm or drift from the price. You should also use the "Will I be annoyed test?" to determine the minimum price. As an example, if something is a 0.1 unit bet at $10, and it wins, will you be annoyed? If not, increase the min price. If it is a 1 unit bet at $10 and wins, will you be annoyed? Probably, so maybe reduce the min price. However don't reduce the min price so low that you're always taking big unders. Otherwise you'll be annoyed you're not matching results. So that's the counterbalance. The point of doing it is to avoid taking big unders if a horse remains overbet. Occasions where the potential collect is still high anyway (as the edge was so big) are the only times that is acceptable. For example, if I say bet 1u at $41 on a horse, that is huge value. If it goes into $15, it's still a bet because it's a 15u collect which is still big. If it's only a 0.1u bet, different story. Note you should only use the Betfair SP (or BTSP/BOB for that matter) if you don't have time to monitor that race. Otherwise don't be lazy. Laziness is not rewarded in most aspects of life, and certainly not in betting. Want better results? Put in the effort on the occasions when you do have the opportunity to monitor Betfair and Corporate bookie

10 prices. On Saturday metro/city races, you should always take BOB (which is best of 3 totes or Top Fluc) or BFSP (Betfair SP), over BTSP (Best of 3 Totes and SP). The following bookies offer BOB: Topsport Ladbrokes Vicbet 7) Who can we contact for questions? At the end of the day this service is for you. If you have any questions or feedback whatsoever on any topic or how I can improve the service for you, please contact me anytime and I will respond as quickly as possible. If you have any specific queries or thoughts related to the Trial Spy service or betting in general feel free to me directly at deantrialspy@gmail.com Or you can contact me on

11 What time are selections sent? In the first instance, I try to send bets at 9am on as many days as possible. That is my starting point. Both NSW and VIC have minimum bet laws in place from 9am, and QLD do at 9am during AEST and 10am during AEDT. So sending bets out at 9am makes sense as everyone can get on at that time. If bets aren t sent at 9am, I generally aim for bets to be sent by midday latest. I try for simplicity to send all bets for a day at the same time, as I know people live busy lives. But some days I need to send bets in multiple parts. There is a multitude of reasons however why tips are sent at variable times. Firstly there are a wide range of time zones. Depending on daylight savings, there are differences in times between Sydney/Melbourne to Adelaide to Brisbane to Perth. Anywhere between 30 minutes and 3 hours. This means scratchings are all at different times, and bookmaker markets are available at different times. Scratchings can mean substantially varied markets from those the day before, and changes in assessment of the race (e.g. leaders may be scratched, completely changing the speed map of the race). Variable track and weather conditions also need to be assessed when final track conditions are confirmed, again at varying times due to time zone differences. Additionally, markets move at different times. If a horse is firming, I try to get the bet out quickly, but if it s drifting, I send later so members get better prices. Whilst members don t see this, often if a horse or two we are not backing in a race of interest receives significant support, our horse can drift considerably. Why would I send my bet out at a standard time when by waiting a significantly better price can be obtained by all members? I also cover meetings every day, in every state, covering significantly more meetings, races and bets than I would say any other successful service. The time required to

12 review all of these races, and then compare market prices, and send bets is substantial. This process happens every day, but I am human like everyone and have a family, doctor's appointments and other engagements that can change the time available to send the bets on some days. It is not possible to be chained to my computer all morning until midday every day 365 days a year. In terms of giving advanced warning, bets are sent at what I consider the most opportune time for members to get the best prices. It's amazing how much markets can change in 15 minutes. Given the enormous workload required to review all the meetings and races each day, then review market prices, and input the bets to send, I see little value to be frank in adding to my workload by sending an 15 minutes in advance, waiting around for 15 minutes risking prices being taken from members, then having to go back again and check whether prices have changed before sending out the bets. Even more importantly, giving advanced warning creates a false impression that all members should simply be rushing to place bets on at fixed prices, which isn't the case for a lot of bets, so I don't believe this to be the right approach. Lastly, I know a couple of services that have set release times, but often feedback I've heard from those is that it simply becomes a 'running of the bulls' type situation with everyone rushing to get prices and they disappear quickly and can frustrate members more. In any case I don t advise backing every runner at a fixed price, so the delivery time is moot. There is no perfect solution, but all the above makes it difficult, and in my opinion worse, to have standard release times. Nonetheless what I will try and do as often as possible in the morning is advise roughly what time I estimate tips will be sent out, if it's not going to be before 9.30am. But for the variety of reasons stated above, even my estimate may be incorrect, and bets could be sent out earlier or later if that will result in members getting a better price.

13 Getting the best possible odds Part 1 Through thorough trial and jump-out analysis I am able to expose some enormous edges and opportunities, many of which are ignored or not factored in by the bookies when setting their prices, or the wider market. Given we have enjoyed an outstanding winning run over a long period, I want to make sure all members new and old are armed and ready to maximise their profits, so below are some thoughts to assist you going forward. As you will have noticed I ve been sending bets out generally between 9am and 11am, when every bookmaker available has prices. By this time most bookies are fairly aligned, most prices are similar and there s usually only one or two flucs/rolls difference from one bookie to another. This means everyone should be obtaining similar prices overall (on some races better, on some races worse than official ). We have over time had some dramatic drifters win, including: Public Spirit: Initially $21 fixed, started $53 best tote, and they bet $80 on Betfair Dixie Melody: Initially $13 fixed, started $30 best tote, and they bet $36 on Betfair Lirabird: Initially $9 fixed, started $30 best tote, and they bet $40 on Betfair Cloud Cover: Initially $101 fixed, and they bet as much as $450 on Betfair Members should look to increase their stake on a dramatic drifter. The Kelly Criterion (widely regarded as the best formula to use to determine the optimal size of a bet), suggests that to maximise long term profits, the greater the edge, the more you should bet. So an as example if you rate a horse a $3 chance and can get $7 in the market, you should bet MORE than if you could obtain $5 in the market. This theorem, is why I actually recommend having another go (if you have already invested the full stake amount) at our runners if its price drifts say 50% or more above the recommended price.

14 Getting the best possible odds Part 2 1) Dynamic Odds If you aren t using dynamic odds you are costing yourself a fortune in additional profits. It amazes me that there are still members reporting that they are still not utilising this tool. Even a small punter working full time will boost their profits substantially from using Dynamic Odds. You can check and compare prices with all your own bookies quickly on your laptop or mobile phone, and even place bets through your mobile with all your bookies using the dynamic odds mobile version. This is much quicker and more effective than betting through each bookie app separately. They even have a free trial so if you haven t tried it yet, get onto it now. The premium version only costs $35 a month. 2) Having as many betting accounts as possible Let s say you have a $10,000 betting bank. It would be ludicrous to have that $10,000 with one bookies. It is better to have 5 accounts with $2,000 in each. It is even better to have 10 accounts with $1,000 in each. And it is even better to have 20 accounts with $500 in each. Get the picture? The more bookies you have, the more opportunities you have to obtain a better fixed price, or a better derivative product such as BOB, TF, BTSP as they all differ in availability and limits. Different bookies also offer deposit bonuses and money back special promotions or odds boosts that all help you to greatly exceed the officially posted results of this services. 3) Betfair Usually gets you the best odds on horses drifting in the market, and on horses at big prices. Is a must have. Can also use to back and lay horses for a guaranteed profit on our dramatic firmers, as many members do successfully. 4) Read this Member s Information Pack This documents is packed full of information covering topics such as how to get the best possible odds, how to avoid getting banned by the bookies, improving mindset, sound

15 bankroll management and FAQs. 5) Additional late betting stake on big drifters As mentioned above, this is an excellent way to boost your profits over and above official results, so keep an eye out for these opportunities when they present themselves. Getting the best possible odds Part 3 Below is further advice to assist you in deciding when to take a fixed price over betting late using Best Tote & SP / Betfair SP / monitoring with corporate bookies. 1) Overall, as a general, basic blanket statement, you are better taking early fixed prices than betting simply using Best Tote/SP. However it is not recommended to simply do this. 2) For horses at double figure odds or greater, you are usually better off taking the best fixed prices available. More firm than drift at double figure odds and above. However note the examples above such as Public Spirit, Dixie Melody, Lirabird and Cloud Cover. Outsiders can get out to huge prices on Betfair, and you should always keep an eye on these to back again, even if you ve already backed the horse 3) If you miss a recommended early price, but can t monitor betting before the race, Betfair SP is your best option. 4) Generally horses firm more in provincial / country markets, particularly lower grade races such as maidens, and the prices hold up well or drift a lot more in city/metro and stronger class races 5) When backing one horse in a race, it often firms 6) When backing multiple horses in a race, they often drift 7) When I advise taking a price with Best Tote/SP, Betfair SP or BOB, that suggests I think the horse will drift from its current fixed price in betting. You are best to monitor betting yourself if you can. 8) If you are still unsure, such as a day where you may have missed the best prices,

16 often splitting your bet 50/50 between early fixed and late Betfair is a great option. 9) If at any time you lock in an early price and then the horse drifts a fair bit (close to 50% or more), it is certainly worth backing again on Betfair to get your average price up, as a way to exceed official results. There have been plenty of significant drifters that have won at odds far greater than official prices. But more often than not betting early is better than betting late. It's simply about taking additional advantage when one drifts. Getting the best possible odds and beating official results Part 4 The aim is for every member overall to beat official results, or at the very least match them. Below is a summary of the top 8 ways to beat official results: 1) Betfair Betfair odds are not included in official results. However most people know that Betfair routinely offer the best odds available in the market for horse racing, particularly during the last 20 minutes of betting. I could write an essay on the prices available on Betfair on some of our winners, but a handful of examples are: Cloud Cover: Initially $101 fixed, and they bet as much as $450 on Betfair Georgie s Luce: Official $51, was between $110-$150 on Betfair for 11 minutes near start time, and was still $80 3 mins before start. Public Spirit: Initially $21 fixed, started $53 best tote, and they bet $80 on Betfair Dixie Melody: Initially $13 fixed, started $30 best tote, and they bet $36 on Betfair Lirabird: Initially $9 fixed, started $30 best tote, and they bet $40 on Betfair Duchy s Revenge: Initially $26 fixed, and they bet $75 on Betfair Gold Sun: Initially $26 fixed, and they bet $80 on Betfair Sweet Rockette: Initially $15 fixed, and they bet $32 on Betfair As you can see below, at all spectrums of the market you can get great prices on Betfair even just at Betfair SP: Just Froff: Official $2.40, $4.10 Betfair SP Comic Story: Official $2.90, $4 Betfair SP

17 No Marsh Potato: Official $3.40, $4.30 Betfair SP Tibrogargan Miss: Official $4.60, $6.60 Betfair SP Just For Tilda: Official $5, $7.40 Betfair SP Skripchenko: Official $5.50, $8.60 Betfair SP Fordyce Knight: Official $5.50, $7.40 Betfair SP She s A Bop Girl: Official $9.50, $12 Betfair SP Bid Bloopa: Official $10, $15.50 Betfair SP Skeptical Gal: Official $12, $15 Betfair SP Lirabird: Official $18, $32 Betfair SP Duchy s Revenge: Official $26, $38 Betfair SP 2) Other Bookies not included in results In addition to Bet365; Betting.Club, Unibet, Palmerbet, Classicbet, Madbookie, Pointsbet and BetHQ are all not included in official results. 3) Bookies not on Dynamic Odds A very large proportion of members bet using dynamic odds, and take the best available prices from that selection of bookies. As a result, there are a number of bookies whose prices are not shown on dynamic odds. They are also not considered in official results or betting advice. However many members do bet with these bookies, and often find they get greater prices than with the main bookies. The other bonus is that as these bookies are lesser known and not on dynamic odds, their prices are often available a lot longer, so if you happen to miss an early price, it is often worth looking at these bookies to see if the price may have held, as they often do hold much longer than the bookies on dynamic odds. Options include: Betting.Club, Palmerbet, Madbookie, BetHQ, Pointsbet & Classicbet 4) Horses drifting to better prices than quoted when alert sent This actually happens fairly often. By the time the alert is sent, often a horse has drifted out to prices greater than stated, but nonetheless that stated price is recorded. One example was Belle Rings. The alert stated the price as $11, but the horse had drifted to $13 with most bookies at the time the alert was sent. Nonetheless, $11 was recorded as the price for that winner.

18 5) Bookies offering better prices than quoted after alert sent There are actually occasions where bets are sent, but there s still 1 or 2 bookies who haven t put up prices yet. Even though early prices have been crunched, often these bookies will post their analyst s initial prices. I can recall occasions where we have backed a horse from say $21 into $11, and then 1 or 2 bookies have opened 15 minutes later at $21. Those prices often sit there for a while as most members have already placed their bets. Worth keeping an eye open for. 6) Monitoring and betting late when market percentages are lower and more in your favour Bets are sent usually between 9am and 11am, but the market percentages are larger at these times, often at crazy percentages ranging from 125%-135%. Whilst we often get outstanding prices on horses that have been mispriced and firm, on most occasions natural betting movements mean the prices drift back out towards start time as the bookies start to compete and the market percentages reduce. This means that often a horse drifts back out, but then gets backed again very late by big players. So, although the starting price may be close to or even lower to the early price, oftentimes the horse has been much larger odds during betting. Below are 3 examples that spring to mind, but these types of market movements are commonplace: It s Not Easy: Opened $3.50, drifted out to $5 in betting on course and with Topsport/Best Bookies, and then firmed back into $2.90 Best Tote/SP One Lucky Gal: Opened $7.50, drifted out to $26 Corporates and $22 Betfair just prior to the start, but only paid $10 SP One Lucky Gal : Opened $7.50, drifted out to $12.50 Betfair, firmed back into $8.50 SP 7) Not betting if a horse has become overbet Oftentimes a horse gets over bet and backed down to a silly price, particularly at the shorter end of the market. You can choose to simply not bet when the value isn t there,

19 which will save you units in the long run against taking unders. 8) Laying back a runner on Betfair if the horse has become overbet Some smart members lay back runners that firm dramatically. This enables them to effectively have a free bet on a runner, or even guarantee a profit regardless of whether a horse wins or not. This grants some members the opportunity to substantially reduce variance and bet reasonably risk free, particularly when backing runners expected to firm dramatically (F). Getting the best possible odds and beating official results Part 5 All of the below is applicable whether you are able to monitor markets during the day, or just prefer to bet and forget by taking a mix of early fixed prices or BTSP/BFSP options. It is aimed to give you some assistance on which decision to make. 1) Metro/City v Country/Provincial One key distinction is that prices on our runners for Metro/City races are not particularly influenced when bets are released, whereas for Country/Provincial races they can be. For Metro/City races (the major raceday in each state typically on a Saturday and Wednesday), two good options are either betting through Bet365 who often have the best fixed prices (available to everyone now on all Victorian and New South Wales races thanks to the Minimum Bet Regulations), and/or use a Best of the Best product (highest of Best Tote and Top Fluc) offered by 6 different bookies. Betfair again is your friend on Metro races also with amazing prices and liquidity available throughout betting, even if just using the Betfair SP tool. Note the standard tracks for Metro/City racing are: NSW: Randwick, Rosehill, Warwick Farm and Canterbury VIC: Flemington, Caulfield, Moonee Valley, Sandown Hillside and Sandown Lakeside QLD: Doomben and Eagle Farm SA: Morphettville and Morphettville Parks WA: Ascot and Belmont

20 For Provincial & Country racing, taking some of the better fixed prices available at the time bets are sent is a good strategy, however if you are able to monitor prices even just on some days such as weekends, you will find through a combination of corporate bookies, Betfair and totes that you will get fantastic prices well above those recorded. 2) The advised unit stakes The advised unit stakes are an excellent guide (and your biggest clue) on whether to bet early or late on selections. The 'standard' amount we aim to collect on a win bet is 5 units. If we back a horse for 1 unit to win, and the horse is odds of $5, that's about normal as a good bet. If the horse is odds of $10, then we stand to collect 10u if the horse wins, and that's a high confidence bet. This horse will often firm in betting. If the horse is odds of $2 we stand to collect 2u, so this is low confidence, or possibly just a saver bet. This horse will often drift in betting. So using the amount to be collected, with 5u as the 'barometer', is often a reasonable indication of whether a horse will firm or drift, particularly at the extreme ends of the spectrum. This can help you decide whether to back the horse early at a fixed price, or take a late betting option such as BFSP/BOB/BTSP if not able to monitor. One question that is asked is when should a bet not be placed if the value has gone? In general terms, advised bets should be placed, but the best way to explain is with extreme examples. Firstly let's say I advise 1u to win on a horse at $31 for a 31u collect. Should you back it if you miss early prices and it firms to $10? The answer is yes, because the 1u investment still stands to collect 10u and that's still a major collect and a big profit. The significant firming indicates simply how incorrect the initial market price was, but how much you stand to collect indicates the horse is still a value bet. If I advise 0.1u on a horse at $31, and it firms to $10 before you have bet, well then you only stand to collect 1u if it wins backing it at $10, well below what you would normally expect to collect on a winner with the service, so you could give this horse a miss as long term there's little value to be had taking unders on those runners. Another example is if I advise 1u to win at a horse at $5, and it firms to $2 before you've

21 placed you bet. Again the original collect was 5u, but now with a 1u investment on a 2u collect, this no longer would be a worthwhile investment. It's an art, not a science, and ultimately your decision, but the above will help guide you towards when to bet early or late (or not at all in rarer instances). 3) One tip in a race v multiple bets in a race This is the other major point worth raising. If there is one bet in a race, there is more likelihood of that runner firming (particularly if the expected win bet collect is anything above 4u). When there are 2 bets in a race, it's often the case that one firms and one drifts, but often both drift. However when there are multiple bets in a race (3 or more), it is very rare they will all firm. Usually maybe 1 firms and then rest drift, or often they will all drift. The only exception is if we aggressively back 3 runners at big odds to beat a short priced favourite. If the short favourite drifts, the others could firm. But again the aggressiveness of the staking will guide you on whether to bet early or late. However the more horses backed, the more that locking in fixed early prices without an SP buffer should be avoided unless the collect is well above 5u. When there are multiple runners in a race it is often a good opportunity to monitor or use BOB/BFSP/BTSP. Summary and other little insights 1) During the Spring Carnival for major metro/city meetings, prices don't fluctuate as quickly or dramatically, so don't panic and use BOB or Betfair as much as possible. 2) Look at how much the potential collect is for the win bet below or above 5u to determine whether a horse is more likely to firm or drift 3) If there is 1 bet in a race and the potential collect is above 5u for the win bet, the horse will often firm. But if there are multiple bets in a race, don't just lock in a fixed price on them all, as many or all will likely drift. 4) With NSW and Vic now having Minimum Bet Laws in place, Bet365 is right back in

22 the picture for everyone. Use them where their price is well above the 3rd best fixed price in the and you expect the horse to firm 5) Best Tote/SP (BTSP) and Betfair SP (BFSP) can be used by all, and the prices are usually much higher than the mid tote recorded for drifters. But blindly backing every horse at a fixed price, or every horse at BTSP/BFSP isn't recommended. Using the advice in this Trial Spy Member s Information Pack is what is advised to decide whether to take a fixed price, BTSP/BFSP, or a split of each. Betfair SP is generally better than Best Tote/SP. 6) For place bets at odds under $2.50, on metro races where you can get Best Tote for the place, this is usually better than taking a fixed price. Place prices are often at high market percentages early for runners at the short end of the market, and often the top tote ends up paying large, so place bets at best tote are recommended at $2.50 or below. However, when we bet aggressively on runners to place at larger odds, taking a fixed price is recommended. 7) Remember runners that are definitely expected to firm against the advised price are marked with an (F). All other runners often firm a while after the bet is advised, but then drift back out in betting. The key is not to panic if you miss early prices. You can either take a fixed price above or close to the advised price, or if you miss the good early prices, BOB, BTSP or BFSP on these runners. Many members do say 50/50 Fixed or BTSP/BFSP and that works well for them. But you may use say 75/25 or 25/75 splits depending on the circumstances and all the advice above. 8) Lastly don't worry about always trying to get the best possible price every time. It isn't possible, or required. We've made over 660u profit since inception, easily achieved by following the advice contained here. Constant improvement in your betting practices will mean constant improvement in your long-term results, and that's the key to long term success with your betting. Take a couple of minutes out every day (or just once every now & then) to review the flucs & closing prices available of runners we back using dynamic odds & you will soon open your eyes to the potential opportunities.

23 Betting Options BOB = Best of Totes & Top TF Topsport, Ladbrokes, Vicbet BTSP = Best Tote/SP: Most bookies have this option available BFSP = Betfair Starting Price: Simply click the SP button rather than taking a price. Can input a min price to accept. Often pays highest of them all GOATSP = Greatest of Tote or SP. This is a TopBetta product guaranteeing you the highest of their tote price, or the official SP price Take the best fixed price available with the corporates at time of notification (Bet365 a good option when available min bet laws) Take the best price available throughout betting from the time the bet is notified until race start time through corporates, totes or Betfair

24 Exotics Most bookies offer one tote, which means mathematically 1/3 of the time you'll receive best tote, 1/3 of the time you'll receive mid tote and 1/3 of the time you'll receive lowest tote. It is worth doing some research to see if one of your bookies offers better than this, and if so take it. All bets are officially recorded at mid tote for simplicity, fairness and easy achievability. Importantly, DO NOT PLACE EXOTICS directly with any TAB (NSW Tab / Vic Tab / Ubet). If you bet through a corporate bookie, generally they do not actually bet back into the TAB pools. This means you do not reduce your dividend. If you bet directly into a TAB (NSW Tab, Vic Tab or Ubet), all you do is reduce the overall dividend for yourself and everyone else. So always bet exotics through a corporate bookie.

25 2016 Annual Round Up - Trial Spy Below is a summary of the 2016 Trial Spy results. For 2016 we posted an 82.9 unit profit at 9.1% POT. Profit Month P/L Units ($100 POT% ROI% (Units) Invested per unit) January % -1.2% -$117 February % -0.1% -$10 March % % - $1,419 April % 22.7% $2,270 May % 1.9% $193 2 month analysis break Jun/Jul August % 21.7% $2,166 September % 2.6% $257 October % 37.5% $3,748 November % 8.2% $819 December % 3.8% $ % 82.9% $8,291 Following Analysis Break: Aug to Dec % 77.2% $7,724

26 This was a solid performance after a slow start to the year. I wasn t satisfied with results and so took the opportunity during the winter months of June/July to take a break and perform analysis to identify improvements for the rest of the year and beyond. Since then (August to December) we have had not had a losing month, and have been operating at an excellent 17.4% POT. In fact we have had 7 winning months in a row, and units profit in the past 13 betting months. Big Priced Winners We had plenty of nice priced winners identified through the trials and jumpouts that the market missed. Public Spirit in fact traded as high as $80 on Betfair. Official Name Odds Public Spirit Fickle Folly Scarteen Afton Prince Arab Dawn Cliveden House Dubai Sights Missrock Enki Invincible Warrior Jayaqua Flying Artie I Am Incredible Fast Arli Infinite Success Belle Rings Muddy Rope Capitalist Virgo Lass 10.00

27 Kwikon TheTrigger There were certainly a large number of 2 nd placings for us with runners at double figure odds, 42 in fact! The whale that got away was definitely Mandalong Jenny who ran 2 nd at Kembla Grange. This horse drifted out to start $310 on Betfair SP, and charged home out wide to just miss by a nose, in front straight after the post! We had a number of nice priced placegetters as well, including Cresta Cosmic at $16 to place, Mum s Blessing at $13 to place, Hilumiere at $12.50 to place, Written Guarantee at $11.50 to place, Te Kula Kaha at $10.50 to place, and Mandalong Jenny at $10 to place ($23.77 to place Betfair SP). We also got some nice trifectas through the year, including $1, at Randwick, $ at Northam, $ at Ascot and $776 at Belmont. Bet Type In terms of bet types, Win and Place betting dominated this year Bet Type...P/L...POT% Win % Place % Other Exotics % Annual Profit Below is a summary of Trial Spy results since inception: Year Cumulative P&L Profits (Units) Cumulative Units Invested POT% ROI% Profit ($100 per unit) % 221.4% $22, % 200.8% $20, % 76.2% $7, % 82.9% $8,291

28 OVERALL % 581.4% $58,137 As mentioned earlier, the results since taking a 2 month break to perform analysis have been as follows: Year Cumulative P&L Profits (Units) Cumulative Units Invested POT% ROI% Profit ($100 per unit) Aug to Dec % 77.2% $7,724 This POT% is the same as the 2013 levels, and the 5 months results extrapolates out to an annualised figure of units profit, so here s to a very prosperous 2017! Finally, a big thank you to all for your continued, unwavering, loyal support. All the best Dean deantrialspy@gmail.com

29 2017 Member Survey Summary How long have you been a Trial Spy member? Under 1 year 1 year to 4 years Do you have a Dynamic Odds account and use it to check odds, market movements or place bets? Yes No

30 How many dollars do you bet per unit? $20 $50 $100 $200 $500 Betting Method Have limited time and place all bets when received Have time to monitor bets, so place some bets early at fixed prices, and then monitor betting through the day Have time to monitor bets, but place most bets when received Can monitor prices and bet late on weekends but not during the week

31 Are you happy with the odds recording policy? Yes No What suggestion do you have on how odds should be recorded? Continue with existing method Other Alternative Method

32 Overall compared to other tipping services you've tried, how does Trial Spy rate? (% who rated it Excellent or Good) Customer Service 100% Betting Education 96% Profitability 96% Delivery of selections 96% Overall compared to other tips services you've tried 100% How many horse racing or sports betting services did you subscribe to in 2016? 1 2 or 3 4 or 5 6 or 7 8 or 9 10 or more Average number of services subscribed to ~5 Trial Spy: #1: 43% Trial Spy: Top 3: 90%

33 Which bookmakers have you ever had an account with? (in order) Bet365 Betfair Sportsbet Crownbet Ladbrokes Luxbet William Hill Ubet Centrebet Palmerbet Unibet TAB Sportsbet NSW Betstar Betting.Club Bookmaker Bluebet Madbookie TABtouch Topsport Classicbet TAB Sportsbet VIC Topbetta Best Bookies Elitebet

34 Which bookmakers have closed your account or severely limited/restricted it to the point that you will never use that bookmaker again (except in NSW/VIC where Min Bet Laws are in place) Ladbrokes Betstar Bet365 Bookmaker Unibet Betting.Club Bluebet Classicbet William Hill Sportsbet Centrebet Crownbet Luxbet Palmerbet Madbookie TAB Sportsbet VIC Best Bookies Topbetta TAB Sportsbet NSW Ubet Elitebet TABtouch Betfair Topsport

35 Most common unrestricted accounts Betfair Crownbet Sportsbet Luxbet Ubet Bet365 Centrebet Palmerbet TAB Sportsbet NSW William Hill Topsport TABtouch Madbookie Unibet Betting.Club TAB Sportsbet VIC Topbetta Ladbrokes Bluebet Bookmaker Classicbet Best Bookies Elitebet Betstar

36 How would you describe Dean and/or the Trial Spy service in just a few words? (2016) Remarkable Great service and highly profitable Highly professional, passionate and extremely informative Service is excellent - honest and transparent. Professional and easy to follow Brilliant Great exposure to horses that I would not have normally highlighted in most instances Quite remarkable. I was about to give up looking for a good betting strategy, & Deans service has changed that I feel I get value for money, although I punt for fun and don't take it too seriously Knowledgeable, articulate and approachable Excellent service. His perceptive analysis of Trial form is outstanding Thorough, methodical, keen, meticulous Great service, great knowledge and responsive to questions, very smart and committed form analyst Very professional and great investment Consistent Genius. Valuable. Astute Simply a WINNER A service that makes a very good long term profit is hard to find so keep up the good work Dean Great service that finds winners from the trials all over the country. Dean appears a great guy and always happy to answer s and questions that I've had Top rate tipster with amazing ability Very good at picking the value in a horse. Good reasonings Clear accurate information, friendly supportive service One of the best services in the Country Cant be faulted Dean is amazing and always helpful

37 How would you describe Dean and/or the Trial Spy service in just a few words? (2017) Profitable service, easy to follow with clear betting advice Succinct informative Very profitable and fair service over the longterm A more than good service.an important part of my punting approach Takes the hard work out of sifting through hundreds of races to find horses going well and hopefully ready to win. Insightful, low maintenance, focused Excellent - reliable results over long periods - times when things don't move much but then - bang - your off again Tips service based on trial form Value betting backed up with excellent information and education for members. Lots of fun. Very lucrative. Good fun and profitable. excellent. Excellent and time saving I find the new approach excellent Profitable, Professional, Trustworthy Horse racing tips based predominantly on trial and recent race form Gives good value chances Very Good Excellent betting strategies. Excellent Trial Spy service is very easy to follow with some great tips, insights and staking. The comments on each horse by Dean give a short analysis of how he thinks the horse will run. Excellent Profound

38 What have you been able to do with these profits? (2016) Put them back into my betting so that I can increase my bet size and as a result my profits Building bank and increasing unit size Nothing yet, but it's becoming a big boost towards putting down a deposit on my first house. Bought laptop, paid uni fees, paid daughters airfare to Europe Helped fund an overseas holiday Overseas trips Bought a horse Purchased a car Go to UK Helping pay off mortgage - still going Buy art work Pay off some of my mortgage Move overseas and concentrate on full time punting

39 What is the #1 value you find in being a Trial Spy member? (2017) It is long-term profitable and I like the fact we bet on race day, after 9am (I can't stand any service that is tipping a horse/s the night before as the prices disappear within a handful of seconds and also I've found it's a pretty quick way to have accounts restricted) Ability to locate a better price winner Profitability was the number 1. Profit Identifying the abilities of young gallopers finding horses that represent good value ready to win Profits Finding runners the market ignores/misses Longer priced horses to put into multiples The service offers outstanding value for money Profitable Good returns. winners Freedom to do other things Good value bets without large volume The education in all aspects of betting. Being able to chat with Dean and learn from the best in the industry. The research from trials that I wouldn't otherwise have the time to review Diversifies my other betting as a lot of bets on minor tracks whereas most of my other betting is on metro racing Attention to detail Making profit. Love the analysis. Finding the long shots based on great analysis. Good tips and good service. No bullshit, no lies no scams Getting winners at good prices all across the country. Finding value outside the market Clear staking plan