CORDEX: where we are? Achievements and Challenges. Grigory Nikulin Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Ins5tute (SMHI)

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "CORDEX: where we are? Achievements and Challenges. Grigory Nikulin Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Ins5tute (SMHI)"

Hugh Carpenter
5 years ago
Views:

1 CORDEX: where we are? Achievements and Challenges Grigory Nikulin Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Ins5tute (SMHI) IS- ENES2 Final Assembly, Paris, January 2017

CORDEX Management and Coordination CORDEX (WCRP project) has been running since 2009 CORDEX Science Advisory Team (SAT), 12 members InternaConal Project Oﬃce for

2 CORDEX Management and Coordination CORDEX (WCRP project) has been running since 2009 CORDEX Science Advisory Team (SAT), 12 members InternaConal Project Oﬃce for CORDEX (IPOC) hosted by SMHI (Sweden) since January 2015 (Irene Lake) Each CORDEX domain has 2-3 Points of Contacts (POCs) CORDEX archiving is coordinated by IS- ENES

CORDEX Phase I focus on downscaling of the CMIP5 results

RCM: about 40 groups in the CORDEX RCM list (+ 30

experiment (+ 30) 14 CORDEX domains CORDEX simulacons

3 CORDEX Phase I focus on downscaling of the CMIP5 results both dynamical (RCM) and sta5s5cal downscaling (ESD) RCM: about 40 groups in the CORDEX RCM list (+ 30 unregistered) ESD: 13 groups registered for the 1st ESD experiment (+ 30) 14 CORDEX domains CORDEX simulacons can be accessed using: 1. Earth system Grid FederaCon (ESGF) 2. Regional Data Portals (Med- CORDEX, South and East Asia) CORDEX- Adjust: bias- adjusted simula5ons on ESGF (Oct 2016)

4 CORDEX-related articles searching for CORDEX & RCM & climate in Google Scholar Stockholm

stakeholders community CORDEX2016, Stockholm, more than 300 par5cipants Trieste 2011 Stockholm 2016

5 Pan-CORDEX Conferences and Workshops Pan- CORDEX conferences: CORDEX2011, Trieste, about 150 par5cipants CORDEX2013, Brussels, about 450 abstracts and more than 500 a`endees; also VIA and stakeholders community CORDEX2016, Stockholm, more than 300 par5cipants Trieste 2011 Stockholm 2016 Regular CORDEX session at EGU (usually one full day), AGU Many regional workshops for specific CORDEX domains

Christensen (DMI, Denmark) Stephanie Legutke and Stephan Kindermann (DKRZ, Germany) Sebas5en Denvil (IPSL,

6 CORDEX-data team development of the CORDEX archiving infrastructure was an joint effort of a number of European groups with coordinacon by the IS- ENES2 FP7 project Mar5n Juckes and Stephen Pascoe (BADC, UK) Ole B. Christensen (DMI, Denmark) Stephanie Legutke and Stephan Kindermann (DKRZ, Germany) Sebas5en Denvil (IPSL, France) Grigory Nikulin and Michael Kolax (SMHI, Sweden) Prashanth Dwarakanath and Torgny Faxén (NSC- LIU, Sweden) and many more.

7 CORDEX-ESGF CORDEX- ESGF is in opera5on since mid September 2013 Number of users is growing (more and more data available) 2843 users in the CORDEX- ESGF group (11 Jan 2017) down5me

8 CORDEX ESGF nodes (January 2016) 3 nodes take data from different RCM groups (support, running QC etc.) Univ. of Cantabria (Spain) and Norstore (Norway) New CORDEX ESGF node will be established at the Ramkhamhaeng University (Thailand) serving CORDEX South- East Asia (help form the ESGF trainings and IITM)

9 CORDEX documentation All CORDEX coordina5on documenta5on and lists are available from h`p://is- enes- data.github.io/ DRS for sta5s5cal downscaling is in development, different from RCM (Univ. of Cantabria, Univ. of Cape Town, DWD, SMHI)

10 CORDEX data on ESGF Number of files Africa 50km Europe 50km Europe 12km Arc5c 50km South Asia 50km North America 50km South America 50km Central America 50km MENA 50km Antarc5c 50km East Asia 50km MENA 25km Australasia 50km Central Asia 50km North America 25km North America 12km provided by DKRZ

11 CORDEX data on ESGF Number of files Africa 50km Europe 50km Europe 12km Arc5c 50km South Asia 50km North America 50km South America 50km Central America 50km MENA 50km Antarc5c 50km East Asia 50km MENA 25km Australasia 50km Central Asia 50km North America 25km North America 12km Most important: number of scenarios and RCM- GCM combina5ons per domain provided by DKRZ

12 automa5cally generated once a week or when a larger number of new datasets published many thanks to DKRZ for providing this service and auto- generated CORDEX lists What s available?

13 Euro-CORDEX downloads EUR- 11 & EUR- 44: the Swedish ESGF node (esg- dn1.nsc.liu.se) Number of Files (only SMHI- RCA4, 36 scenarios ) Germany Portugal Italy Norway Switzerland France Croa5a Denmark Greece Sweden United Kingdom Austria Romania Spain Poland Stockholm provided by NSC- LIU

14 CORDEX-Africa downloads AFR- 44: the Swedish ESGF node (esg- dn1.nsc.liu.se) Number of Files (only SMHI- RCA4, 25 scenarios) France Germany Spain Kenya Ethiopia United States Italy Republic of Korea South Africa Denmark Egypt New Zealand Portugal Netherlands Niger Stockholm provided by NSC- LIU

Nanjing, China 2016, Interna5onal Conven5on Center, Jeju, Korea both workshops supported by

15 ESGF training workshop for CORDEX Asia Technical workshops: senng up ESGF node, quality control and publica5on of CORDEX simula5ons on ESGF 2014, WMO Regional Training Centre, Nanjing, China 2016, Interna5onal Conven5on Center, Jeju, Korea both workshops supported by IS- ENES2 including experts from IPSL, NSC- LIU and SMHI Nanjing, December 2014 Jeju, February 2016

16 What s ongoing CMIP6: CORDEX is a diagnos5c MIP, reques5ng only specific CMIP6 output for downscaling; Gutowski et al. Geosci. Model Dev., 2016

17 What s ongoing CMIP6: CORDEX is a diagnos5c MIP, reques5ng only specific CMIP6 output for downscaling; Gutowski et al. Geosci. Model Dev., 2016 CORDEX- CORE program is under discussion: focus on the produc5on of the next genera5on simula5ons response to IPCC needs a CORDEX- CORE ques5onnaire

18 What s ongoing CMIP6: CORDEX is a diagnos5c MIP, reques5ng only specific CMIP6 output for downscaling; Gutowski et al. Geosci. Model Dev., 2016 CORDEX- CORE program is under discussion: focus on the produc5on of the next genera5on simula5ons response to IPCC needs a CORDEX- CORE ques5onnaire Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS): focus on processes and sub- con5nental scales (e.g. hi- res convec5on perminng simula5ons, aerosol, land use changes) 5 FPS are running and 2 are under review 3 deadlines per year for FPS proposals; 15th February, 15th June and 15th October archiving for FPS simula5ons????

19 CORDEX challenges Sparse GCM- RCM matrices in many CORDEX domain: difficult to run analysis and select subsets for impact studies CORDEX- CORE: improving GCM- RCM matrices Euro- CORDEX: Copernicus call on regional projec5ons for C3S

20 CORDEX challenges Sparse GCM- RCM matrices in many CORDEX domain: difficult to run analysis and select subsets for impact studies CORDEX- CORE: improving GCM- RCM matrices Euro- CORDEX: Copernicus call on regional projec5ons for C3S Natural variability: few downscalings of members with different ini5al condi5ons mul5- member ensembles at individual ins5tu5ons (ETH, KNMI) may be a focus on SSP3-7.0 in CMIP6 (10 members)

21 CORDEX challenges Sparse GCM- RCM matrices in many CORDEX domain: difficult to run analysis and select subsets for impact studies CORDEX- CORE: improving GCM- RCM matrices Euro- CORDEX: Copernicus call on regional projec5ons for C3S Natural variability: few downscalings of members with different ini5al condi5ons mul5- member ensembles at individual ins5tu5ons (ETH, KNMI) may be a focus on SSP3-7.0 in CMIP6 (10 members) Post- processing: strongly underes5mated, the first experience for many groups no CORDEX- CMOR, all groups have their own solu5ons

22 CORDEX challenges Sparse GCM- RCM matrices in many CORDEX domain: difficult to run analysis and select subsets for impact studies CORDEX- CORE: improving GCM- RCM matrices Euro- CORDEX: Copernicus call on regional projec5ons for C3S Natural variability: few downscalings of members with different ini5al condi5ons mul5- member ensembles at individual ins5tu5ons (ETH, KNMI) may be a focus on SSP3-7.0 in CMIP6 (10 members) Post- processing: strongly underes5mated, the first experience for many groups no CORDEX- CMOR, all groups have their own solu5ons Errata system: no well established system, mail to the community (not always) mails to individual user who downloaded data??? changing file names for new corrected simula5ons???

23 Thank you for your a`en5on Ques5ons? cordex.org

AREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven.

AREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven. Reference series Composite leading indicators OECD Composite Leading Indicators AREA TOTALS 7-03- 19 OECD Total 19 OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries 19 Major Seven 19 Major Five Asia 19 Euro area 19