WHY CHINA IS A GOOD MARKET FOR FD SOI

Transcription

1 WHY CHINA IS A GOOD MARKET FOR FD SOI SEPTEMBER 15, 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. 632 Industrial Way Los Gatos CA USA (fax) info@ibs-inc.net

2 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES BACKGROUND Has been in business for over 25 years Previous experience in managing 1.5K+ engineers at Rockwell International, which included avionics, communications, and semiconductors. Strong emphasis on communications Interface with most global leaders in electronics industry, with customers in U.S., Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, India, etc Interface and support for major global corporations such as Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, Sony, Toshiba, Apple, Cisco, Huawei, IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi, Renesas, TSMC, STMicroelectronics, TI, ARM, Cadence, Synopsys, Mentor Graphics, Seagate, SK Hynix, Canon, Globalfoundries, SMIC, NXP Semiconductors, and others Participated with French Government on their advanced technology initiatives Interface and support for financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Blackstone, CitiGroup, Warburg Pincus, Walden, KKR, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, Bain Capital, Bank of America, TPG, and others Involved with advanced technology concepts, price-sensitive platforms for smartphone and other high volume platforms, and high performance infrastructure companies on global basis Strong expertise in China. Published two books on China: China s Globalization (How China Becomes No. 1) and Chinamerica (McGraw Hill). Forbes blog contributor, China Daily articles, Global Times editorials, EE Times Asia, etc Involved in number of due diligence projects on number of IPOs Support for strategic initiatives for number of global technology leaders HAS HIGH MARKET SHARE ON TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY BUSINESS 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 2

3 TOP-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON CHINA MARKET China is evolving to becoming high technology, which will require building strong design expertise 50% of smartphones provided globally in 2015 will come from Chinese companies, eg, Huawei Technologies, Xiaomi, and others Increased supply of semiconductors for smartphones from Chinese companies China is projected to be global leader in 5G Initial field tests will be in Initial deployment will be in M 4G subscribers out of 1.3M handsets in China as of July 2015 China is Internet savvy $20B available for setting up wafer foundry, NAND Flash, and DRAM Will require partnerships Acquisition of OmniVision Technologies, Integrated Silicon Solution, NXP Semiconductors RF Power business (by Jianguang Asset Management) and STATS ChipPAC Many more acquisitions will be made, but key is how to manage them 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 3

4 TOP-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON CHINA MARKET (CONTINUED) Increased emphasis on big data, which will leverage 5G, IoT, and cloud Supercomputers designed and manufactured in China are competitive but primarily based on Intel and NVIDIA processors New semiconductor designs are based on Chinese processors, ARM, MIPS, and Power Architecture Entering HD video age Samsung plans to manufacture 11K panels in high volume in 2018 and projects sales of 97M UHD televisions in 2019 China will manufacture 8K and 11K panels in 2020 China is strengthening rapidly in displays HD entertainment content is being actively supported, including investments in Hollywood ecosystem, eg, Hanhai Studio Medical, industrial, security, and other applications can benefit from HD video CHINA IS CHANGING, AND SEMICONDUCTORS ARE KEY PART OF THIS CHANGE 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 4

5 Peak Bandwidth Number of UHDTV (MU) Electronics Industry Production (MU) Number of Smartphones (MU) TOP-LEVEL METRICS FOR CHINA CHINA S ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY PRODUCTION SMARTPHONE SUPPLY 2,045 1,950 1,992 16% 22% 19% 1,775 29% 84% 1,600 1,561 81% 36% 78% 1,306 53% 71% 64% 84% in 2014 Other China 2,100 1, ,140 1, , , , , Other 1, % 47% in % 27% 24% 21% 19% 21% 18% 42% % 82% 68% 73% 76% 79% 81% 47% 43% 34% 40% 24% 55% 51% 71 58% % 45% 49% 53% 57% 60% 66% Mobile phone Tablet computer Color TV PC/laptop ,094 1, China BROADBAND WIRELESS CONNECTIVITY UHD TELEVISION SUPPLY 10Gbps 180 1Gbps 5G ERA Mbps MULTIPLE STREAMS OF ULTRA-HIGH DEFINITION VIDEO Many New Applications Will Emerge Mbps HIGH DEFINITION VIDEO We Are Here Other Companies 1Mbps STANDARD DEFINITION VIDEO Mbps AUDIO AND MUSIC DATA 0.01Mbps VOICE 0.001Mbps Year Available for Wide Range of Users Chinese 21 Companies RATE OF PROGRESS IS ACCELERATING 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 5

6 Semiconductor Market GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET $600B MPU MCU DSP Standard Cell ASIC $400B FPGA Special-Purpose Logic General-Purpose Logic Display Driver $200B Analog MOS Memory $0B Other Semiconductor TOTAL GLOBAL MARKET WILL BE $590B IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 6

7 China Semiconductor Market CHINA S SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET $350B $280B $210B $140B MPU MCU DSP Standard Cell ASIC FPGA Special-Purpose Logic General-Purpose Logic Display Driver Analog $70B MOS Memory Other Semiconductor $0B CHINA MARKET WILL BE $336B, REPRESENTING 57% OF GLOBAL MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 7

8 Semiconductor Consumption in China SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN CHINA $400B $336B $314B $300B $200B $128B $130B $130B $140B $156B $167B $170B $182B $198B $214B $233B $251B $271B $292B Consumption by Foreign Electronics Equipment Companies $100B Consumption by Chinese Electronics Equipment Companies $0B CHINESE COMPANIES CONSUMED 15.8% OF TOTAL SEMICONDUCTORS IN CHINA IN 2010 BUT WILL BE 53.8% IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 8

9 4.5% 6.2% 7.6% 8.5% 9.1% 10.2% 12.6% 14.2% 15.8% 17.6% 19.3% 21.6% 24.2% 27.2% 30.7% 34.8% 4.5% 6.2% 7.6% 8.5% 9.1% 10.2% 12.7% 14.5% 16.3% 18.5% 21.3% 24.5% 28.3% 32.4% 37.6% 43.7% Chinese Semiconductor Supply Based on $100B Investment (Realistic Scenario) Chinese Semiconductor Supply Based on $100B Investment (Optimistic Scenario) SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY IN CHINA REALISTIC OPTIMISTIC $400B $400B $336B $336B $314B $314B $300B $200B $292B $271B $251B $233B $214B $198B $182B $167B $170B $156B $128B $130B $130B $140B Supply from Foreign Semiconductor Companies $300B $200B $292B $271B $251B $233B $214B $198B $182B $167B $170B $156B $128B $130B $130B $140B Supply from Foreign Semiconductor Companies $100B Supply from Chinese Semiconductor Companies $100B Supply from Chinese Semiconductor Companies $0B $0B FOREIGN COMPANIES DOMINATE SUPPLY OF SEMICONDUCTORS IN CHINA HOWEVER, THIS MAY CHANGE WITH APPROPRIATE STRATEGIES BY CHINESE COMPANIES 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 9

10 Foundry Market $100B $75B GLOBAL FOUNDRY MARKET 0.25µm 0.18/0.15µm 0.13µm 90nm 65nm 45/40nm 28nm $50B 20nm 16/14nm $25B 10/7nm $0B nm AND DERIVATIVES SUCH AS 22nm FD SOI WILL BE HIGH VOLUME LONG LIFETIME TECHNOLOGY NODES. 10/7nm WILL BE IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY NODE 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 10

11 China's Foundry Market by Technology Node CHINA S FOUNDRY MARKET $30B $25.8B $24.1B 0.25µm $20B $22.2B $20.1B $17.8B 0.18/0.15µm 0.13µm 90nm $15.4B 65nm $13.0B 45/40nm $11.1B $10B $2.4B $3.1B $3.8B $4.5B $5.8B $6.9B $8.1B $9.4B 32/28nm 22/20nm 16/14nm $0B WAS 7.8% OF TOTAL GLOBAL MARKET IN 2010 WILL BE 26.4% IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 11

12 Number of Design Starts 12,000 DESIGN STARTS BY TECHNOLOGY NODE 9,000 7,646 8,119 8,461 8,724 9,207 9,559 9,847 10,061 10,099 10,089 10,003 9,910 9,858 9,800 9,747 9, µm 0.18/0.15µm 6, µm 90nm 65nm 3,000 45/40nm 28nm 20nm 16/14nm 10/7nm VERY SMALL NUMBER OF DESIGNS IN 10nm, BUT REVENUES PER DESIGN ARE VERY HIGH 5nm 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 12

13 Design Starts DESIGN STARTS BY GEOGRAPHIC REGION 12,000 9,000 7,646 8,119 8,461 8,724 9,207 9,559 9,847 10,061 10,099 10,089 10,003 9,910 9,858 9,800 9,747 9,675 North America 6,000 Europe Japan ROW 3,000 China HIGH GROWTH FOR DESIGN STARTS IN CHINA 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 13

14 Design Cost Design Cost Design Cost DESIGN COSTS ADVANCED MAINSTREAM FOLLOWER $900M $900M $900M Validation Prototype $600M $600M Validation $600M Physical Software Prototype Validation $300M Architecture $300M Architecture Physical Software $300M Verification Physical Software Prototype IP Qualification IP Qualification Architecture Verification Verification IP Qualification $0M 65nm 45/40nm 28nm 20nm 16/14nm 10/7nm 5nm $0M 65nm 45/40nm 28nm 20nm 16/14nm 10/7nm 5nm $0M 65nm 45/40nm 28nm 20nm 16/14nm 10/7nm 5nm DESIGN COSTS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH REDUCTION IN FEATURE DIMENSIONS FOR ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY, DESIGN COSTS WILL BE COMPARABLE IN CHINA TO OTHER COUNTRIES 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 14

15 Revenue Requirement REVENUE LEVELS TO SUPPORT MAINSTREAM DESIGNS $6,500 $5,200 10X $3, X $2,600 $1,300 5X $0 65nm 45/40nm 28nm 20nm 16/14nm 10/7nm 5nm REVENUES PER DESIGN NEED TO BE 10X DESIGN COSTS NEED NEW DESIGN METHODOLOGIES 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 15

16 GATE COST ANALYSIS 28nm 22/20nm 16/14nm ($) Bulk CMOS FD SOI Bulk CMOS FD SOI FinFET 14nm FD SOI Q4/ Q4/ Q4/ AT 16/14nm, GATE COST OF FD SOI IS 29.2% LOWER THAN FINFET IN Q4/2017 FD SOI GIVES HIGH LEVELS OF DESIGN FLEXIBILITY FOR RF AND MIXED-SIGNAL 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 16

17 TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS 28nm HKMG: Excellent technology for many applications HPC+ of TSMC gives 15% lower power than HPC 22nm FD SOI: Better technology than 28nm HKMG Lower power consumption, higher performance, and superior for RF and analog-centric mixedsignal functionality 20nm HKMG bulk CMOS: High gate cost compared to 28nm HKMG and high leakage Apple is high volume user but changing to FinFET for digital designs Small number of new designs are in 20nm HKMG bulk CMOS 22nm FD SOI is much better technology 16/14nm FinFET: Has low standby power but relatively high switching power Can be lower in power consumption compared to 28nm and 20nm HKMG bulk CMOS Very high design costs and very difficult to implement RF Expect 16/14nm FinFETs to be displaced in digital designs by 10/7nm FinFETs in H2/2017 or 2018 Apple is driving 10/7nm, and Xilinx will release FPGA products in H2/ /14nm FD SOI can give gate cost that is 29.2% lower than 16/14nm FinFETs in H4/2017, with lower design costs and ability to support RF and other specialty requirements CHINA MUST MAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS REGARDING TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 17

18 PRODUCT OPPORTUNITIES FOR FD SOI Application processors: 8- and 10-core 64-bit application processors in FD SOI can be lower cost, lower power consumption, and better flexibility in making enhancements than other technologies Modems and transceivers: China is strengthening rapidly in modems for smartphones FD SOI is best technology Image signal processors: Represent high growth market for smartphones, automotive, industrial, and other applications Need low power and high performance SSD controllers: Enterprise as well as client SSDs can obtain benefits from FD SOI Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and NFC: Low noise, good linearity, and low power High bandwidth SERDES: Low jitter and high drive ADAS processors: High performance and low power IoT: Support for processors and low power connectivity Many segments, and FD SOI is best technology for most segments MANY PRODUCT OPPORTUNITIES FOR FD SOI KEY REQUIREMENT IS TO BUILD STRONG IP ECOSYSTEM AND SUPPLY CHAIN 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 18

19 SUMMARY OF TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Following mainstream 16/14nm FinFET roadmaps can support high performance designs but does not give competitive advantage either for China s supply chain ecosystem or Chinese fabless companies for many high volume products Important for China to have leadership product functionality in order to compete effectively in China market in longer term This means low power, high performance, and low cost Also needs to support RF, mixed-signal, and embedded nonvolatile memory 5G will be very important in next few years and will need high performance semiconductor products FD SOI is best technology option for infrastructure and devices Smartphone market is largest segment for semiconductors in China With 1B+ units in 2020 and $50 per unit, nonmemory semiconductor market is $50B IoT will be $91.9B semiconductor market in 2025 China will be over 50% of market Automotive supply chain is expected to strengthen rapidly in China Implementing designs in FD SOI are much more efficient and shorter time-to-market than FinFETs for mixed-signal and RF-based designs IMPORTANT TO SELECT BEST TECHNOLOGY OPTION FOR TARGETED APPLICATIONS 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 19

20 Markets within China are large and growing Important to build up strong supply chain CONCLUSION Very high growth potential for fabless semiconductor companies in China Important to be competitive in global markets in order to be key participant in China market Chinese government agencies are willing to provide support to build strong semiconductor industry in China Funding is also available from financial institutions Critical to have strong design expertise as well as strong management and to select best technology Acquisitions are expected to continue but have risks because key people can leave Joint ventures can be better option for many market segments There will be high volatility in China, but this is normal when competitive environment changes rapidly Following FinFET roadmap can be part of decision processes in China, but it is important to have some form of differentiation FD SOI can be approach to have differentiation, low cost, and low power consumption Important to build up FD SOI supply chain ecosystem in China, but key is to build demand CHINA IS FACING MANY CHALLENGES, BUT OPPORTUNITIES IN SEMICONDUCTORS ARE EXCELLENT 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PR SLIDE 20