Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) and VNI Service Adoption Global Forecast Update, SuHyun Wang CTO of GSP Korea, Cisco June 2017

Transcription

1 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) and VNI Service Adoption Global Forecast Update, SuHyun Wang CTO of GSP Korea, Cisco June 2017

2 Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global mobile and fixed IP traffic forecasts Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned. Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast FIXED MOBILE

3 Global Internet Growth and Trends Key Digital Transformers More Internet Users More Devices & Connections FasterBroadband Speeds More Video Viewing By Billion 17.1 Billion 27.5 Mbps 73% of Traffic Billion 27.1 Billion 53.0 Mbps 82% of Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

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6 Overview

7 Establishing the Zettabyte Era By 2021, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 3.3 zettabytes per year What is a zettabyte? One trillion gigabytes Approximately (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes) 3.3 zettabytes is equal to: 14X more than all IP traffic generated in 2010 (232 exabytes) All movies ever made crossing global IP networks every minute Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

8 VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual growth has been within ±10% of projected growth 35% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 30% 25% 20% 15% 29.1% 29.9% Projected in 2012 Actual (Reported in 2017) 10% 5% 0% CAGR Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

9 Global IP Traffic Growth by Region MEA has the highest growth rate (42%) from 2016 to 2021 APAC will generate 39% of all IP traffic by % CAGR Exabytes per Month % 5.6% 6.1% 13.5% 30.6% 38.7% Middle East and Africa (MEA) (42% CAGR) Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (22% CAGR) Western Europe (WE) (22% CAGR) North America (NA) (20% CAGR) Asia Pacific (APAC) (26% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

10 Fixed and Mobile Growth in 2016 Most countries have higher mobile than fixed growth But there are a growing number of exceptions 160% 140% Indonesia Mobile Growth in % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% France China India Australia Canada UK US Japan 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fixed Internet Growth in 2016 Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

11 Top Trends

12 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

13 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

14 Global Device/Connection Growth by Type By 2021, M2M connections will be more than half of total connections 10% CAGR Billions of Devices Other (1.6%,1.8%) Tablets (3%,3%) PCs (8%,5%) TVs (12%,12%) Non-Smartphones (19%,6%) Smartphones (21%,23%) M2M (34%, 51%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

15 Global Devices and Connections Average per capita and per household Average Number of Devices and Connections per Capita 2.3 Devices & Connections 3.5 Devices & Connections Average Number of Devices and Connections per Household 6 Devices & Connections 8.5 Devices & Connections Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

16 Global Video Capable Device Growth by Type By 2021, nearly half (48%) of total devices and connections will be video capable 9% CAGR Billions of Devices Other (0.4%,0.2%) Tablets (7%,6%) PCs (18%,10%) TVs (25%,25%) Smartphones (44%,48%) M2M (6%, 12%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

17 Increasing Video Definition By 2021, more than half (56%) of connected flat panel TVs will support 4K % CAGR UHD 18 Mbps HD 7.2 Mbps SD 2 Mbps Connected 4K TV Sets (M) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

18 Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2021, non-pc devices will drive 75% of global IP traffic 24% CAGR Exabytes per Month Other (0.03%,0.02%) Tablets (5%,7%) PCs (46%,25%) TVs (33%,30%) Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%) Smartphones (13%,33%) M2M (2%, 5%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

19 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

20 By 2021, M2M modules will be 51% (13.7 billion) of total global devices and connections and will account for 5% (14.3 EBs/month) of total global IP traffic. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

21 Global M2M Connections Global M2M Connections will increase 2.4-fold from 2016 to % CAGR Billions of M2M Connections Global Korea In % 72% Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

22 Global M2M Traffic Growth M2M traffic will grow more than 7-fold from 2016 to 2021 Global Korea 49% CAGR Exabytes per Month Average traffic / Month 0.336GB à 1.044GB 0.354GB à 0.987GB Middle East and Africa (52% CAGR) 5.6% Latin America (53% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (57% CAGR) Western Europe (48% CAGR) North America (45% CAGR) Asia Pacific (51% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

23 Connected Home Home automation Building security Network equipment printers + Network infrastructure routers + White goods Tracking applications Household information devices Connected Work Office building automation Building security Office equipment printers + Routers + Commercial appliances Connected Car Fleet management In-vehicle entertainment systems, emergency calling, Internet Vehicle diagnostics, navigation Stolen vehicle recovery Lease, rental, insurance management Connected Health Health monitors Assisted living medicine dispensers + Clinical trials First responder connectivity Telemedicine Connected Cities Environment and public safety closed-circuit TV, street lighting, waste removal, information + Public space advertising Public transport Road traffic management Retail Retail goods monitoring and payment Retail venue access and control Slot machines, vending machines Manufacturing & Supply Chain Mining and extraction Manufacturing and processing Supply chain Warehousing and storage Energy New energy sources monitoring and power generation support apps Smart grid and distribution Micro-generation generation of power, by residential, commercial and community users on their own property Other Agriculture livestock, soil monitoring, water and resource conservation, temperature control for milk tanks + Construction: Site and equipment monitoring Emergency services and national security

24 Global M2M Connections / IoT Growth by Vertical By 2021, connected home largest, connected health fastest growth 19% CAGR Billions of M2M Connections Other (1% CAGR) Energy (25% CAGR) Mfg & Supply Chain (9% CAGR) Retail (15% CAGR) Connected Car (29% CAGR) Connected Cities (29% CAGR) Connected Health (30% CAGR) Connected Work (15% CAGR) Connected Home (18% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

25 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

26 Global IPv6-Capable Devices/Connections By 2021, 61% of devices/connections will be IPv6-capable Global Korea 27% CAGR Number of Devices (Billions) % 52% Global : 8.1B 1.6B Global : 8.4B 3.4B IPv6 Capable Mobile Devices IPv6 Capable Fixed Devices Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

27 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

28 Global IP Traffic by Application Type By 2021, video will account for 82% of global IP traffic Gaming starts showing significant growth Korea 24% CAGR Exabytes per Month IP Video 79% Gaming (1%,4%) File Sharing (8%,3%) Web/Data (18%,11%) IP VOD (22%,14.5%) Internet Video (51%, 67.4%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

29 Global Internet Video Traffic by Type By 2021, live video will increase 15-fold and reach 13% of Internet video traffic 31% CAGR Exabytes per Month Video Surveillance (2%,3%) Live Internet Video (3%,13%) Long-Form Internet VoD (60%,57%) Short-Form Internet VoD (34%, 26%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

30 Virtual and Augmented Reality Traffic By 2021, VR/AR traffic will increase 20-fold, 1% of Entertainment Traffic 82% CAGR Exabytes per Month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

31 High Definition Content Impacts IP Video Growth UHD IP video will account for 21% of global IP video traffic by % CAGR Exabytes per Month Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (2%, 21%) High Def (HD) Video (47%,57%) Standard Def (SD) Video (51%,22%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

32 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

33 Global Video Users / Subscribers Mobile video growing fastest, followed by online video Online Video (5.8% CAGR) Millions Digital TV HH (4.2% CAGR) Mobile Video (14.8% CAGR)

34 Cord-Cutting Household Traffic Is 86% Higher A global cord-cutting household generates 117 GB per month in 2017, compared to 63 GB per month for an average household 140 GB per Household per Month Average Household Cord-Cutting Household Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

35 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

36 Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage Future Average Traffic per User 24 GB per month 57 GB per month 200 GB per month Average Traffic per Household 63 GB per month 155 GB per month 500 GB per month Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

37 Globally, FTTx Traffic is 28% Higher than Non-FTTx FTTx generates 84 GB per month in 2016 and 183 GB per month by % CAGR Gigabytes per Month Other Broadband FTTx Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

38 Internet Households Reshape Usage Limits Internet households exceeding 1 TB doubled in 2016 Terabyte Households (Millions) Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

39 Global Content Delivery Network (CDN) Traffic CDNs will deliver 71 percent of Internet traffic by % CAGR Exabytes per Month Non-CDN Internet Traffic (48%,29%) CDN Internet Traffic (52%, 71%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

40 39% 32% 68% of CDN Traffic will be carried by Private CDNs by % 68% Third-Party CDN Private CDN * Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

41 CDN Share Differs Significantly by Region (2021) Overall CDN share ranges from 32% in MEA to 92% in NA Private CDN will be double 3 rd -party in NA, reverse true in MEA Western Europe North America Middle East and Africa Latin America Central and Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Private CDN 3rd Party CDN Non-CDN Internet

42 End-User Internet Traffic Moving Closer to the Edge Over one-third of traffic will bypass core completely by 2021 Core Cross-Country 58% in % by 2021 Core Regional 20% by % by 2021 (64% cumulative) Within Metro 22% in % by 2021 (100% cumulative)

43 Global Enterprise SD-WAN Traffic SD-WAN traffic will grow at a CAGR of 44% compared to 5% for traditional WAN SD- WAN will increase 6x and will be 25% of WAN traffic by % CAGR Exabytes per Month SD-WAN Traffic (6.4%,24.9%) Traditional IP WAN Traffic (94%, 75.1%) * Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

44 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

45 Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability Existing Growth Future Pay-as-you-go Free access promoting other services (Retail free Wi-Fi) Managed services (venues and outdoor) Cellular offload (user promoted) Added value for broadband subscription Advertising and sponsorship Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots Cellular offload (carrier driven) Community Wi-Fi/ homespots Carrier-grade VoWiFi TV everywhere Large events Big data analytics Public transportation Wi-Fi M M Wi-Fi Capacity trading Transaction platform Internet of things Context awareness HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi) Total Incremental Hotspots? Back to Trends Menu Source: Maravedis, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast,

46 Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Asia Pacific leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by % CAGR Millions of Hotspots % 9% 17% 23% 45% Middle East and Africa (MEA) (34% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (49% CAGR) Latin America (72% CAGR) North America (34% CAGR) Western Europe (25% CAGR) Asia Pacific (59% CAGR) * Middle East and Africa represents 1% of global public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2021 Source: Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Asia Pacific Leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by 2021

47 Future of Wired and Wireless Technologies By 2021, 98.1% of BB CPE will be equipped with ac Future Wi-Fi Enables Virtualization, IoT, Speech Processing, Security, Data Analytics n 600 Mbps Max Medium Resolution Video ac 3.6 Gbps Max High Resolution Video Wired Complement ax 10 Gbps Max Dense IoT Deployment DOCSIS Mbps per channel VDSL2 100 Mbps Max Medium Resolution Video DOCSIS Mbps. VDSL2-VPlus 300 Mbps Max Full Duplex DOCSIS Gbps symmetrical Inflection point for DOCSIS 3.1 in 2019 Future Wired Enables 4K, Immersive 360 video, VR, High Dynamic Range, High Frame Rate, 8K G.fast Mbps Max.

48 Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2021, 63% of total IP traffic will be wireless* 24% CAGR Exabytes per Month % 37.1% 19.8% Mobile (46% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (16% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (48% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (18% CAGR) % * Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

49 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

50 Global Average Fixed Broadband Speeds Doubling in speeds from In Mbps GLOBAL Global BY REGION Asia Pacific Latin America North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

51 Global Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences 10 Mbps 25 Mbps 100 Mbps 85% of all broadband connections by 2021 Online Video (HD movie download) 22 minutes (UHD movie download) 2 hours 51% of all broadband connections by 2021 Online Video (HD movie download) 9 minutes (UHD movie download) 48 minutes 13% of all broadband connections by 2021 Online Video (HD movie download) 2 minutes (UHD movie download) 12 minutes

52 Top Trends Devices & Connections Traffic Trends Network Performance and User Experience Devices/Connections Mix IoT/M2M by Verticals IPv6 Adoption Traffic Growth by App Cord-Cutting Traffic Pattern Analysis Wi-Fi Momentum Accelerating Speeds Security Analysis

53 Security Professionals' Biggest Sources of Concern Related to Cyber Attacks

54 DDoS Attack Size and Traffic Increasing Peak attack size increased 60% Y/Y. DDoS attacks can represent up to 18% of a country s total Internet traffic while they are occurring. Average DDoS attack size increases at 22% which is relatively the same rate as Internet traffic at 29% Y/Y. Source: Arbor Networks, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

55 Number of DDoS Attacks Greater than 1 Gbps Attacks grew 172% in 2016, will increase 2.5-fold to 3.1 million by 2021 globally 20% CAGR Millions Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast,

56 Source: Verizon 2017 Data Breach Investigations Report

57 Financial, Retail and Hospitality are the leading targets Media and Entertainment 5% Biotech and Pharamceuticals 2% Other Education 9% 3% Construction 3% Energy 4% Manufacturing 5% Financial 19% Retail & Hospitality 13% Government 9% Business and Professional Services 9% Healthcare 10% High Tech 10% Source: M-Trends 2017

58 India $61 $56 $51 Average cost of data breach per capita over 3 years increasing. Brazil South Africa Australia $78 $70 $100 $101 $131 $133 $134 Average per capita cost globally was $158 in 2016 compared to an average of $154 average last year. The US ($221) and Germany ($213) continue to have the highest per capita costs. India ($61) and Brazil ($100) had the lowest costs. Source: Ponemon Institute 2016 Arabian Cluster Japan Italy United Kingdom France Canada Germany United States $140 $122 $109 $142 $135 $127 $156 $146 $141 $159 $163 $148 $196 $186 $183 $211 $189 $213 $211 $194 $221 $217 $201 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 FY2016 FY2015 FY2014

59 66% Technologies with the biggest security implications are public clouds, big data and mobile applications, each of which have seen high adoption rates in recent years. 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 58% 65% 63% 61% 60% 57% Public-cloud software Big data application Mobile business applications Hybrid clouds Source: Forbes Insight with BMC, 2017

60 33,488 Records Exposed per Breach Total Breaches: 1,093 Records Exposed: 36.6 Million Highest in Business: 45.3% Highest in Healthcare: 43.6% Source: 2016 Identity Theft Resource Center, 2016 EoY Report

61 Enabling Authentication and Secure Internet Percentage of secure Internet servers to all web-facing Servers North America 24% Western Europe 40% CEE 46% Latin America 12% MEA 11% Asia Pacific 17% Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index

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