R I C H A R D M A H O N Y Global Director, Consulting Ovum

Transcription

1 OVUM KEYNOTE R I C H A R D M A H O N Y Global Director, Consulting Ovum P R E S E N TAT I O N The Five New Industry Realities (and What You Should Do About Them) 1

2 NOBODY IS TOO BIG TO FAIL 2

3 NOBODY IS TOO SMALL TO SUCCEED 3

4 Billions % total cellular traffic Reality 1: The pace of change will accelerate Industry drivers 1. +1bn connections in 4 years In the next four years, another billion cellular connections will be added 2. Things double in five years 16.3bn consumer devices Up 107% from Global cellular connection Cellular traffic by service E+10 1E+10 8E+09 6E+09 4E+09 2E+09 0 Fixed broadband Mobile subscriptions Source: Ovum 100% 80% Other data Communications 60% Social networking Web browsing 40% Music Games 20% Video 0% Source: Ovum Global installed base of connected consumer devices by type, Traffic doubles in 2 years K PB K PB Source: Ovum Other smart home Smart utilities Smart security Smart appliances Smart hubs Smart speakers Media streamers Smart TVs TV STBs VR headsets Wearables Tablets Smartphones Source: Ovum 4

5 CSP Revenue ($bn) ICP Revenue ($bn) A shift in market power Leading CSP Revenue Growth Leading ICP Revenue Growth $800 Leading CSP Revenue Growth SoftBank $800 Leading ICP Revenue Growth Alibaba $700 $600 $500 KDDI Charter Comcast $700 $600 $500 Tencent Facebook $400 China Tel. $400 Microsoft $300 $200 $100 NTT China Mobile Verizon $300 $200 $100 Google Amazon $0 Source: Ovum AT&T $0 Source: Ovum Apple Leading group of CSPs has grown less than 4% CAGR since 2009 Leading group of ICPs has achieved a greater then 4X revenue growth since 2009 Represents a shift in the monetary power within the industry 5

6 Reality 2: A new internet reality Network capex ($bn) $60 $50 $ Fixed CSPs 100 Mobile CSPs 32 ICPs $30 $20 $10 $ Fixed CSPs $43 $45 $46 $49 $51 $55 Mobile CSPs $40 $41 $40 $43 $46 $49 ICPs $16 $20 $25 $29 $34 $39 Fixed CSPs Mobile CSPs ICPs By % of the spend on network infrastructure worldwide will be from 32 internet players 6

7 Reality 3: A frictionless reality Mobile AR share of installed base, Technology will be more pervasive Source: Ovum 7

8 Reality 4: An artificial reality Global annual AI revenue by technology 70, Annual Artificial Intelligence Revenue by Technology, World Markets: , , , , , , Machine Learning Computer Vision Natural Language Processing Machine Reasoning Strong AI Deep Learning 8

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11 If the wrong man uses the right means, the right means work in a wrong way 11

12 A digital panopticon 12

13 Reality 5: A more local reality (proximity becomes critical) 13

14 Reality 5: A more local reality (proximity becomes critical) The service edge is moving N E T W O R K E D G E O N S I T E R E S P O N S I V E N E S S C O N N E C T I V I T Y/ L O C AT I O N 14

15 What you do about these new realities? Managing our new realities A faster reality Challenge your growth scenarios Manage change through Ovum A new internet reality New wholesale models Sell Amazon et al cloud services Focus local management A frictionless reality Promote new tech in the home (e.g. AR) Bring together the services enable simplicity An artificial reality AI enable your network Personalise and automate services Enable privacy management Take on the role of service broker A local reality Become very good at connectivity Invest local infrastructure Invest in local compute Invest in local services/content Pursue 5G 15