Black Swans and Burs.ness: Countering Myths About Terrorism

Transcription

1 Black Swans and Burs.ness: Countering Myths About Terrorism Gary LaFree University of Maryland BTI Ins7tute University of Texas at El Paso June 1, 2017

2 Na7onal Consor7um for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security START Mission START advances science-based knowledge about the human causes and consequences of terrorism as a resource for homeland security policymakers and prac..oners.

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4 A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security The Impact of Black Swan Events

5 A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Bursty processes

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7 A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security GTD THEN

8 GTD NOW Initial searches return ~50,000 articles per week. About 7 percent are potentially relevant to terrorist attacks Thousands of sources worldwide generate more than 1.6 million articles per day. GTD staff identify hundreds of unique terrorist attacks per month and record 120+ points of information about each one.

9 FINDING OPEN SOURCE ARTICLES Step 1: Boolean filters use axackspecific keywords to include/exclude ar7cles. Step 2: Natural Language Processing Deduplica7on: Removal of ar7cles that are >82.5% similar Loca7on extrac7on Step 3: Machine Learning model classifies the remaining ar7cles as relevant or not relevant. ABOUT TERRORIST ATTACKS The initial pool of sources comes from a media aggregator called Metabase, which we supplement with additional content from specific media sources and Open Source Center (opensource.gov) Number of Ar.cles n Classified as relevant n Classified as not relevant Date

10 A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Eight Myths

11 MYTH 1. Terrorist akacks were rapidly increasing in the years leading up to 9/11.

12 Annual AXacks Worldwide, 1970 to 2015 (N=156,772)

13 500 TERRORISM IN THE UNITED STATES, (N = 2649) Number of AKacks Source: Global Terrorism Database Year Source: Global Terrorism Database

14 MYTH 2: Terrorist attacks reach every corner of the world.

15 A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security TERRORIST ATTACKS, 2013

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17 Top Ten Countries for Terrorism, Rank Country Cumula.ve % of All AKacks Cumula.ve % of All Countries 1 Iraq Pakistan India Colombia Afghanistan Peru El Salvador United Kingdom Philippines Spain

18 MYTH 3: The U.S. is more frequently targeted by terrorists than any other country in the world.

19 TWENTY TOP RANKING COUNTRIES, TOTAL ATTACKS AND FATALITIES, 1970 TO 2014 Most Frequently AKacked Most Fatali.es Rank Country AKacks Country Fatali.es 1 Iraq Iraq Pakistan Afghanistan India 9069 Pakistan Colombia 7942 India Afghanistan 7765 Sri Lanka Peru 6075 Colombia El Salvador 5320 Nigeria United Kingdom 4881 Peru Philippines 4860 El Salvador Spain 3242 Algeria Turkey 3144 Nicaragua Thailand 3074 Philippines Sri Lanka 2969 Syria Algeria 2704 Somalia United States 2646 Turkey France 2580 Guatemala Somalia 2482 Russia Lebanon 2374 Yemen Chile 2336 Lebanon Nigeria 2251 Burundi 3888 Source: Global Terrorism Database

20 But foiled jihadi plots increasing

21 MYTH 4: Most terrorist attacks involve disgruntled groups and individuals from one country carrying out attacks on civilians in other countries.

22 Total Ac.vity by 53 State Department- Designated FTOs AXacks 3.4% (570) Fatali7es 9.4% (3,943) AKacks on US Targets 96.6% (16,346) 90.6% (38,113) AKacks on Non US Targets LaFree, Yang and Crenshaw (2009)

23 MYTH 5: Terrorism is unrelated to traditional political grievances.

24 TOP TWENTY PERPETRATOR ORGANIZATIONS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970 TO 2013 Perpetrator Group AXacks Fatali7es 1 Shining Path (SL) Farabundo Mar7 Na7onal Libera7on Front (FMLN) Taliban Irish Republican Army (IRA) Revolu7onary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-Maoist)/Maoists Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) New People's Army (NPA) Libera7on Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Na7onal Libera7on Army of Colombia (ELN) Nicaraguan Democra7c Force (FDN) Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Al-Shabaab Manuel Rodriguez Patrio7c Front (FPMR) Boko Haram Corsican Na7onal Libera7on Front (FLNC) Al-Qa`ida in Iraq African Na7onal Congress (South Africa) M-19 (Movement of April 19) Source: Global Terrorism Database

25 MYTH 6: Most terrorist attacks are incredibly lethal.

26 LETHALITY OF TERRORIST ATTACKS, (N=141,966) 60.00% 55.40% 50.00% Percent of AKacks 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 19.72% 11.37% 9.03% 2.96% 1.21% >25 Number of Fatali.es

27 MYTH 7: Most terrorist attacks rely on sophisticated weaponry.

28 WEAPONS USED IN TERRORIST ATTACKS, (N=141,966) Melee, 1.86% Other, 0.40% Incendiary, 6.44% Unknown, 7.78% Explosives/Bombs/ Dynamite, 49.80% Firearms, 33.72% Source: Global Terrorism Database

29 MYTH 8: Most terrorist organizations are long lasting and difficult to eradicate.

30 LONGEVITY OF TERRORIST GROUPS, % 70.00% Percent of all Perpetuator Groups 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% < >10 Life Span (years) Source: Global Terrorism Database

31 But terrorism also tends to be bursty.

32 US Attack Trajectories st Century Boom (4.3%) Short Lived (43.5%) 70s Boom (22.8%) 80s Boom (29.5%)

33 200 Share of World-Wide attacks by Country Average # of Even Year G1 (41.2%) G2 (28.3%) G3 (13.5%) G4 (7.0%) G5 (10.0%)

34 Aerial Hijackings,

35 Suicide Bombings Worldwide,

36 IED Attacks Worldwide,

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39 TOP TWENTY PERPETRATOR ORGANIZATIONS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 2014 Perpetrator Group Name AKacks Fatali.es Injuries Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Taliban Al-Shabaab Boko Haram Donetsk People's Republic New People's Army (NPA) Al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Maoists Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Revolu7onary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Fulani Militants Huthis Muslim Fundamentalists Luhansk People's Republic Separa7sts Baloch Republican Army (BRA) Janjaweed Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) Al-Nusrah Front Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI-Maoist) Source: Global Terrorism Database

40 THANKS! Gary LaFree

41 Near Repeat Crime Distributions probability p(τ) repeat crime is much more likely to happen in a short interval of.me acer the first event days between repeat crimes (τ)

42 Event Dependence in IED attacks Number of Events Waiting Time (τ) Najaf strong exact-repeat effect to at least 28 days Research by Jeff Bran<ngham et al.

43 Crime Patterns in Space & Time residen7al burglaries 2006 Hollenbeck, n = 384 gang shoo7ngs 2006 Hollenbeck, n = 540 Research by Jeff Bran<ngham et al.

44 5769 IED events Baghdad Jan May 2007 Research by Jeff Bran<ngham et al.

45 Province Level Distribution of ETA Attacks for the Two Major Attack Periods,

46 Predicting the Next ETA Attack (N = 1,890) Independent Variables Model 2 (logis.c Model) Same/Con.guous vs. Non-Adjacent Province Time Period Phase 2 ( ) -.66** Time Gap Between Incidents Time Gap (in days) -.02*** Geographic Regions BAC 1.92*** Navarra.87*** Madrid -.60*** * p <.05; ** p <.01; *** p <.001

47 Time and Space Distribution of ETA and FMLN attacks Research by Behlendorf, LaFree and Legault

48 Terrorist Tactics by ETA and the FMLN associated with Microcycles (Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects) Variable Exp β ETA ( ) (SE) Assassina.ons (/257) Bombings 1.623* (.322) Armed Assaults (.332) Fatal AKack.738* (.114) Exp β FMLN ( ) (SE) ( *** (.855) (.336).595*** (.069) Research by Behlendorf, LaFree and Legault Test for difference of β (Sig.).929 (.177) 1.944* (.026).057 (.477) (.132)

49 Location of ETA and FMLN attacks and Microcycles (Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects) Variable Exp β ETA ( ) (SE) Na.onal Capital 5.970*** (1.425) Provincial/Regional Capital 3.598*** (.419) Defended Space 2.394*** (.329) Exp β FMLN ( ) (SE) *** (12.856) (.169) 1.234* (.127) Test for difference of β (Sig.) 4.889*** (.000) *** (.000) *** (.000) Research by Behlendorf, LaFree and Legault