Member Meeting. Monday, April 23 rd, 2018

Transcription

1 Member Meeting Monday, April 23 rd, 2018

2 Countering the Mass Shooter Threat

3 Setting the Stage The ASE Details Magazine Capacity AR-15 or Other Guns Gun-Free Zones Victim Responses Univ. Background Chk Terrorists & No Fly Lists What can You do? Know the Signs Risk Factors Direct Indicators Indirect Indicators Run, Hide, Fight Critical Choices Use of Deadly Force Get Active Politically The Facts, Just the Facts!

4 Part 1: What Not to do! Countering the Mass Shooter Threat

5 Definitions Active Shooter an individual trying to kill people in a confined & populated area Motive mass murder, not a by-product of attempting a crime Mass Shooting 4 or more fatally shot The Trend - ASEs Overall, violent crime & murders by firearm have steadily declined over the same time period By the Numbers

6 Threshold of Violence Theory in ASEs Known Cases The Toll The likelihood that someone will join in on a social process will be based on the number or percent of people already engaged in the action or process. Thwarted Plots Attacks Attacks Planned on Columbine Anniversary 126 Wounded Known goal was to outdo Columbine body count Threshold of Violence Theory

7 Christopher Harper-Mercer Killed nine at Umpqua Community College Posted that he admired Vester Lee Flanagan who killed two journalists A man who was known by no one, is now known by everyone. His face splashed across every screen, his name across the lips of every person on the planet, all in the course of one day. Seems the more people you kill, the more you re in the limelight. When did Fame Become a Career Choice?

8 165 ASEs since Columbine Apr 20, (Now 50) Meet FBI Threshold 95% Male 34 Avg Age 448 Killed (1.4%) 369 Wounded ASE Snapshot

9 Residences 4% Churches 4% Healthcare 3% Government 10% Businesses 46% Education 24% Outdoors 9% Events by Location

10 Subdued by LEO 3% Surrender to LEO 4% Shot by LEO 24% Suicide 42% 55% of ASEs Ended Before Police Arrived Leaves 8% Subdued by Victims 15% Shot by victim 4% Event Resolution

11 Number of Events Police Response Time in Minutes (+2 Minutes to confront shooter) 0 Police Response Times

12 Will Reducing Magazine Capacity Save Lives? Exactly how many rounds can be fired per minute using mags: 5 rounds 10 rounds 30 rounds Would a lower capacity magazine have changed the outcome of any of the 48? Magazine Capacity

13 By Magazine Size Magazine Capacity Reloads /Minute Rounds /Minute Rounds per Minute Before Reduction Theoretical Maximum Rate of Fire Before and After Connecticut Magazine Capacity Reduction 75 Rounds per Minute After Reduction Rates of Fire

14 Sandy Hook Adam Lanza Theoretical Maximum Rate of Fire Before and After Connecticut Magazine Capacity Reduction Rate of fire = 31 Less than half what new 10 round mag limit allowed High rate of fire did not matter 100 Rounds per Minute Before Reduction 75 Rounds per Minute After Reduction 31 Rounds per Minute Lanza s Actual Rate of Fire Rates of Fire

15 Shooter Location Dead Rounds Fired Time Rounds per Minute Seung-Hui Cho Virginia Tech minutes 15 Adam Lanza Sandy Hook minutes Farook and Malik San Bernardino minutes 7 14 Nidal Hasan Ford Hood minutes 21 Jiverly Wong Binghampton minutes 25 Harris and Klebold Columbine minutes 4 James Holmes Aurora minutes 8 14 Christopher Harper-Mercer Umpqua Community College minutes 9 Dylann Roof Charleston minutes 11 Jeff Weise Red Lake minutes 5 The Real Rates of Fire

16 10 Round Magazine Unintended Consequences Reduced Mag Limit Completely without Merit 30-Round Magazine 100-Round Magazine Would not have reduced number of deaths at any of the 48 ASEs 10-Round Magazine Frequency of Malfunctions Magazine Limit Summary

17 Media Hype AR-15 High-powered? Military Style? Machine Gun? Magazine? Black!? High-Powered Firearms

18 KINETIC ENERGY 3,000 2,719 2,759 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,296 1,860 1,800 1, Remington Winchester.308 Winchester Springfield 12-Gauge Buckshot 7.62 mm High-Powered Firearms

19 Virginia Tech ASE Killed Victims (30).22 Pistol 100 ft lbs 1/12 of.223 When fired at close range As deadly as any other round Walther P22 Ruger SR22 Equivalent 6.3 Inches 4.5 Inches High-Powered Firearms

20 Ban High-Powered Firearms? AR-15 Used in 4% of ASEs Not a high-powered rifle by comparison Handguns Ruger 22! One step above a pellet gun!! 6.3 Inches 4.5 Inches Ban AR-15s or others?

21 Do Gun Free Zones Help or Hurt?

22 No 10% Unknown 5% Yes 85% Deaths in Gun Free Zones

23 Data Analysis Mass Shooters Seek Soft Targets Avoid Hardened Targets Allows More Time to Shoot Victims w/o Interference Hardened Target? Signs Corp/Gov t Policies Statutes & Laws Glass Doors Unlocked Doors Unarmed Victims Deaths in Gun Free Zones

24 206 Kills Prof Kills Prof +9 & Leaves Students Barricade Door Shooter Returns but gives up Students Barricade Door Shooter fires through door but gives up Students attempt to block the door but fail Shooter kills Prof Prof block door w body Students escape out window Prof Killed + 1 Victim Response

25 GROUP THREE GROUP TWO GROUP ONE»DID NOT MOUNT A DEFENSE Room 206: Prof and 9 students killed. Room 211: Prof and 11 students killed. 22 dead»fought BACK AFTER REGROUPING Room 207: Prof and 4 students killed 5 dead »ACTIVE DEFENSE MOUNTED Room 204: Prof and 1 student killed. Room 205: No one is killed. 2 dead Victim Response

26 Does Fighting Back Make A Difference? Time after time Answer is YES! VA Tech Thurston HS New Life Church Appalachian Schl La Toscana Mall Waffle House 15:17 to Paris Group Initiative Got Injured Got Control of the Gun Subdued Shooter Waited for LEO Fighting Back

27 What are they? Proposed Law Require all firearm sales, including all private sales, to go through FFL Requiring a Background Check for all gun purchases How many of the ASEs since Columbine would be affected? Universal Background Checks

28 Four Categories 1. Purchases from FFLs requiring a NICS background check 2. Transfers that the buyer and seller knew were illegal sales 3. Firearms that were stolen from family members or during burglaries 4. Legal transfers between private parties that didn t required a background check. Sources of Shooter s Firearms

29 Stolen 13% Illegal Sale 6% Unknown 2% Private Sales 0% FFL Purchase 79% Sources of Shooter s Firearms

30 Would Universal Background Checks have affected ANY of the ASEs since Columbine? 0 ATF form 4473 The federal form used for conducting a background check is ATF form 4473 which is required any time a firearm is purchased from a federally licensed firearms dealer. Universal Background Checks

31 Proposal Prohibit anyone on Terror Watch and No-Fly lists from purchasing firearm Would this have prevented any ASEs in the past? Terrorist & No-Fly Lists

32 Terror Watch List Terrorist Screening Database (TSDB) About 1 Mil Names No-Fly List Subset of TSDB 81,000 Names No due process for either adding or removing a name from either list Nat l Counterterrorism Center Published list of secret rules for adding to list Require neither concrete facts nor irrefutable evidence to designate anyone for the list Terrorist & No-Fly Lists

33 Beneficial Action? Combine TSDB &/or No-Fly List with NICS Secret Rules Low Threshold No Due Process NOT ONE MASS SHOOTER IS ON EITHER LIST Impact on prior ASEs: 0 Terrorist & No-Fly Lists

34 Evidence to this point 1. Magazine Capacity Irrelevant 2. Type and caliber of gun Irrelevant 3. Gun-Free Zones extend the uninterrupted time Average LEO Response = 4+2 minutes = 18 lives 4. Fighting back (team) makes a big difference 5. Universal Background Checks No Impact 6. Terror Watch & No-Fly Lists No Impact Summary

35 Part 2: What You can do! Countering the Mass Shooter Threat

36 Left of Bang Know the Signs Risk Factors Direct Indicators Indirect Indicators The ASE Awareness & Denial Run, Hide, Fight Improvised Weapons Team Action Armed Response Use of Deadly Force Where to go from Here? Countering the Threat

37 No single profile that defines the mass shooter Some psychotic Cho VA Tech 64% have Mental Health Issues per Secret Service Inspired or motivated by terrorist organizations Most seeking Fame! Most leave trail of physical or electronic evidence Missed by family, friends 80% since Columbine Told someone in advance Not taken seriously! Know the Signs

38 Risk Factors can Include: Multiple failures academically, socially, romantically Troubled, broken, or abusive home Disengaged parents, no responsible adult providing oversight in their lives Psychotic symptoms Risk Factors

39 Direct Indicators can include physical evidence, such as: Seeking to acquire firearm illegally Uncharacteristic stockpiling of guns & ammo Written documentation of attack plans Warnings to friend or family to avoid a specific area on a specific date Threats stating grievances and/or plans Direct Indicators

40 Social Media Postings Posts expressing admiration for Past shooters ISIS Al Qaeda Other despots Thoughts of suicide Photos showing odd or threatening behavior Direct Indicators

41 Indirect Indicators include: Socially dysfunctional Difficulty relating emotionally Bullying tendencies Feelings of despair, disenfranchised, world conspiring against them Indirect Indicators

42 These shooters are very disempowered, not succeeding in life in multiple domains, and we see that with college and adult shooters. They re typically failing in academics, the world of work, the world of friendship, in romance, or sexuality. Nothing really is going right in any major domain for them. Dr. Peter Langman, author of School Shooters: The Warning Signs Indirect Indicators

43 See Something, Say Something 1. Look for Warning Signs 2. Act Immediately 3. Say Something to Law Enforcement FBI 4. Be persistent, don t give up 5. New law allows court ordered gun seizures from dangerous individuals (with due process) Sandy Hook Promise

44 Denial isn t a Required Step! Typical: This can t be what I think it is! Even momentary denial can lead to Loss of valuable seconds Shortened time to prepare counterattack Determine direction & proximity of threat Warn others nearby Run, Hide, Fight is NOT a linear sequence Choose option most likely to save your life Awareness & Denial

45 Run Flee from Kill Zone Run laterally or Diagonally Leave personal belongings Leave others if necessary Afraid, Frozen, Unable to move Direct Route to Exit Run, Hide, Fight

46 Run Inverse Square Law Doubling distance makes you 4x harder to hit Move laterally or diagonally Makes easy shot hard, even impossible Run, Hide, Fight

47 Hide Seek Concealment Seek Room Barricade Door Find items to use as weapons Turn out lights Stay out of view of windows Run, Hide, Fight

48 Hide Prepare to fight as a team Most anything can be a weapon Be Ferocious, Vicious Someone go for control of the gun Can only point one direction at a time! What s Wrong with this picture? No barricade Lights on! Door locked? Run, Hide, Fight

49 Fight 15% shooters subdued by victims Shooters do not expect victims to attack Disrupts mental plan May cause moment of hesitation Choose opportune moment if possible Reloading Malfunction/Jam Armed Response Dramatically Changes the Odds of Success Run, Hide, Fight

50 Critical Choice Run, Hide, Fight Move Toward Shooter Seek Cover or Concealment Time is Critical Secure your gun before LEOs arrive Armed Response

51 Use of Deadly Force If shooter has entered your area, the legal threshold for the use of deadly force HAS BEEN MET. Forcible Felony No Hesitation Whatsoever! No Verbal Warning Shoot to Kill Cardiovascular Triangle (Center Mass) Use of Deadly Force

52 Do not waste time on Feel Good Emotional Solutions Anti-gun Hidden Agenda Get CWFL Get Trained Practice Carry Support EOPs for Schools, Churches Eliminate Gun Free Zones Harden Facilities Schools, Churches, Businesses What Can You Do?

53 Get MORE Active Politically!! Join NRA 100,000 in 100 Gun Owners of America National Association for Gun rights Announcing Club Legislative Action Committee 4-6 Volunteers Current on 2A, etc. National, State, Local What Can You Do?

54 VSS Legislative Action Committee Inform Members on Key Legislative Actions 2 nd Amendment Anti-Gun Initiatives Convey Facts Pro-Con Rationale Discussion Points Suggest Communications Letters/ s Draft Phone Calls Script Social Media - Postings What Can You Do?

55 VSS-LAC Web Site

56 Sheep Sheep Dog When the Chips are Down?

57 AKA Kill Zone Don t Even Think About It Zone Conclusions

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