The Don Best Weekly Insider

Transcription

1

2

3 The Don Best Weekly Insider The bowl games are underway and this week s The Don Best Weekly Insider will be covering the next six in the bunch. We have prepared our full page previews, including the key matchups stats you ll need, some editorial analysis on both the teams and the bowl series history, plus of course, our handicappers selections. Next week s issue will be the big one, as it holds the bulk of the bowl lineup, in this case, 20 of the 35 games will be covered in The Don Best Weekly Insider. If you ve been buying the Insider each week, that is one issue you sure won t want to miss, especially since our experts have been asked already to find 12 Best Bets throughout the week, covering either the game line or total for those games. In last week s bowl game openers, our guys were 3-3 on Consensus Selections, running the season-long record in that department to (55%). While college football certainly garners a lot of the attention at this time of year, the pro s are still doing their thing, and OUR pro s, The Don Best Weekly Insider experts, certainly did their thing this past weekend. The guys were sharp, hitting on seven of 10 wagering options on a Consensus basis, as well as 10 out of 15 Best Bets. For the season, NFL Best Bets are now a seasonhigh 25 games over.500! With two full weeks and the playoffs remaining on the schedule, make sure you are adequately prepared to be receiving the season-ending issues of the Insider. It s been a while since we really tried to sell our already paying subscribers on the Insider, but sometimes it helps to just remind our customers what a great value the Don Best Weekly Insider has turned out to be. Did you realize that besides all the usual statistical, editorial, and analytical features that are hard to put a value on, the Best Bet picks alone this year have paid for the season-long subscription 40 times over already?!? It seems hard to believe, but followers religiously playing our experts Best Bets would now be for the season, which even at 10% juice would still be netting bettors $4,030 on $100 wagers. Consensus picks would be $2,740 on the same wager amount. Not bad at all considering the season subscription was $99. If you ve missed any of the issues and aren t yet sold on whether you want to be back for 2012 or not, give our office a call and I m sure they can help answer any questions you might have. In the meantime, enjoy this week s issue and please accept our best wishes for a wonderful holiday season. official don best rotation schedule... 2 Don Best exclusive NFL picks FOOTBALL LINE MOVES BETTORS MUST KNOW... 5 Early lines NFL and college football lines, what bettors are thinking and edges as the line moves NFl strength ratings... 6 NFL head-to-head series breakdown... 7 top weekly NFL trends... 8 NFL matchups... 9 conference bowl game records chart Don Best exclusive BOWL picks poinsettia BOWL - DEC (209) LOUISIANA TECH VS (210) TCU las vegas BOWL - DEC (211) ARIZONA ST VS (212) BOISE ST hawaii BOWL - DEC (213) NEVADA VS (214) SOUTHERN MISS INDEPENDENCE BOWL - DEC (215) NORTH CAROLINA VS (216) MISSOURI LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL - DEC (217) W MICHIGAN VS (218) PURDUE BELK BOWL - DEC (219) LOUISVILLE VS (220) NC STATE KEY ATS - AGAINST THE SPREAD C - CENTRAL TIME CS - CURRENT SEASON DB - DON BEST E - EASTERN TIME FD - FIRST DOWNS FG - FIELD GOAL H2H - HEAD-TO-HEAD L# - LAST NUMBER OF GAMES/YEARS P - PACIFIC TIME PCT - PERCENTAGE K PDIF - POINT DIFFERENTIAL PPG - POINTS PER GAME PROJ - PROJECTION ROI - RETURN ON INVESTMENT RTG - RATING STRG - STRENGTH SU - STRAIGHT UP TD - TOUCHDOWN TOD - TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL YPPT - YARDS PER POINT Copyright All Rights Reserved. is owned by Dodgeball Ventures, Inc. U.S. Citizens Please Note: The information contained at this website is for news and entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of federal, state, provincial or local laws is strictly prohibited. Copyright@ Don Best Sports Inc All Right Reserved The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 1

4 The Don Best Weekly Insider Official Don Best Rotation Schedule college football completed BoWl games saturday, DeceMBer 17, 2011 new MexIco BoWl saturday, DeceMBer 24, MINNESOTA P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 118 WASHINGTON university stadium - albuquerque, nm 201 TEMPLE TAMPA BAY P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 202 WYOMING CAROLINA -7-7 famous IDaho potato BoWl 121 ST. LOUIS P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM Bronco stadium - BoIse, ID 203 UTAH ST PITTSBURGH P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN 123 SAN DIEGO OHIO P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM new orleans BoWl 124 DETROIT SAN FRANCISCO -2-2 superdome - new orleans, la 205 LA LAFAYETTE P: 1:15PM C: 3:15PM E: 4:15PM P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN 126 SEATTLE SAN DIEGO ST PHILADELPHIA P: 1:15PM C: 3:15PM E: 4:15PM 128 DALLAS -3-3 COLLEGE UPCOMING BOWL GAMES TuesDay, DeceMBer 20, 2011 Beef o' BraDy's st.petersburg BoWl saturday, DeceMBer 24, 2011 TropIcana field - st.petersburg, fl hawaii BoWl 207 FLA INTERNATIONAL aloha stadium - honolulu hi P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 213 NEVADA MARSHALL P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 214 SOUTHERN MISS -6-6 WeDnesDay, DeceMBer 21, 2011 poinsettia BoWl NFL WEEK 16 continued QualcoMM stadium - san DIego, ca sunday, DeceMBer 25, LOUISIANA TECH CHICAGO P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC 210 TCU GREEN BAY NFL WEEK 16 NFL WEEK 16 continued ThursDay, DeceMBer 22, 2011 MonDay, DeceMBer 26, HOUSTON ATLANTA P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL P: 5:35PM C: 7:35PM E: 8:35PM ESPN 102 INDIANAPOLIS NEW ORLEANS COLLEGE UPCOMING BOWL GAMES continued COLLEGE UPCOMING BOWL GAMES continued ThursDay, DeceMBer 22, 2011 MonDay, DeceMBer 26, 2011 Maaco las vegas BoWl InDepenDence BoWl sam BoyD stadium - las vegas, nv InDepenDence stadium - shreveport, la 211 ARIZONA ST NORTH CAROLINA P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN2 212 BOISE ST MISSOURI NFL WEEK 16 continued TuesDay, DeceMBer 27, 2011 saturday, DeceMBer 24, 2011 little caesars BoWl 103 OAKLAND ford field - DeTroIT, MI P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 217 W MICHIGAN KANSAS CITY -1 PK P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN 105 DENVER PURDUE P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM Belk BoWl 106 BUFFALO Bank of america stadium - charlotte, nc 107 JACKSONVILLE LOUISVILLE P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 108 TENNESSEE NC STATE ARIZONA P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 110 CINCINNATI MIAMI rfk stadium - WashIngTon D.c. P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 221 TOLEDO NEW ENGLAND P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN 113 CLEVELAND AIR FORCE P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 114 BALTIMORE NFL WEEK 16 continued WeDnesDay, DeceMBer 28, 2011 MIlITary BoWl holiday BoWl QualcoMM stadium - san DIego, ca 115 NY GIANTS CALIFORNIA P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 116 NY JETS TEXAS The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

5 Official Don Best Rotation Schedule The Don Best Weekly Insider COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES continued ThursDay, DeceMBer 29, 2011 champs sports BoWl citrus BoWl stadium - orlando, fl raymond JaMes stadium - TaMpa fl 225 NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN ST P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ABC 226 FLORIDA ST GEORGIA alamo BoWl capital one BoWl alamodome - san antonio, Tx citrus BoWl stadium - orlando, fl 227 WASHINGTON NEBRASKA P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN 228 BAYLOR SOUTH CAROLINA -1-3 gator BoWl friday, DeceMBer 30, 2011 everbank field - JacksonvIlle, fl armed forces BoWl 253 FLORIDA gerald ford stadium - Dallas, Tx P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN2 229 TULSA OHIO ST P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN rose BoWl 230 BYU PK -2.5 rose BoWl - pasadena, ca pinstripe BoWl 255 WISCONSIN yankee stadium - Bronx, ny P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN 231 RUTGERS OREGON P: 12:20PM C: 2:20PM E: 3:20PM ESPN fiesta BoWl 232 IOWA ST university stadium - glendale, az MusIc city BoWl 257 STANFORD lp field - nashville, Tn P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 233 WAKE FOREST OKLAHOMA ST P: 3:40PM C: 5:40PM E: 6:40PM ESPN 234 MISSISSIPPI ST TuesDay, January 3, 2012 InsIghT BoWl sugar BoWl sun DevIl stadium - TeMpe, az superdome - new orleans, la 235 IOWA MICHIGAN P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM ESPN P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 236 OKLAHOMA VIRGINIA TECH saturday, DeceMBer 31, 2011 WeDnesDay, January 4, 2012 MeInke car care Texas BoWl orange BoWl reliant stadium - houston, Tx sun life stadium - MIaMI, fl 237 TEXAS A&M WEST VIRGINIA P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 238 NORTHWESTERN CLEMSON PK -3.5 sun BoWl sun BoWl stadium - el paso, Tx friday, January 6, UTAH cotton BoWl P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM CBS cowboys stadium - arlington, Tx 240 GEORGIA TECH KANSAS ST fight hunger BoWl at&t park - san francisco, ca 241 UCLA P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN 242 ILLINOIS -3-2 liberty BoWl COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES continued MonDay, January 2, 2012 outback BoWl P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FOX 264 ARKANSAS saturday, January 7, 2012 compass BoWl legion field - BIrMInghaM, al liberty BoWl- MeMphIs, Tn 265 SMU CINCINNATI P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC 266 PITTSBURGH VANDERBILT chick fil-a BoWl georgia DoMe - atlanta, ga sunday, January 8, 2012 go DaDDy.coM BoWl 245 VIRGINIA ladd pebbles stadium - MoBIle, al P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPN 267 ARKANSAS ST AUBURN -1-1 P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN 268 NORTHERN ILLINOIS MonDay, January 2, 2012 TIckeT city BoWl cotton BoWl - Dallas, Tx MonDay, January 9, 2012 Bcs championship game 247 PENN ST superdome - new orleans, la P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU 269 ALABAMA HOUSTON P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 270 LSU -1 PK The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 3

6 The Don Best Weekly Insider Don Best NFL Exclusive Picks WEEK 16 NFL * = BEST BET Home Line Don Best Jim Don Best RObert Don Best BRYAN Don Best jason Don Best paul Consensus OVERALL RECORD (LAST WEEK) BEST BET RECORD (LAST WEEK) , 56% (6-4) , 55% (2-1) , 48% (4-6) , 45% (2-1) , 55% (5-5) , 55% (1-2) , 54% (6-4) , 57% (3-0) , 54% (8-2) , 67% (3-0) , 59% (7-3) (103) OAKLAND at (104) KANSAS CITY 0 Oakland* Oakland Oakland* Kansas City Oakland* Oakland (103) OAKLAND at (104) KANSAS CITY - Total 42 OVER* UNDER OVER UNDER OVER* OVER (105) DENVER at (106) BUFFALO +3 Buffalo Buffalo* Buffalo Denver* Denver* Buffalo (105) DENVER at (106) BUFFALO - Total 42.5 OVER UNDER OVER* OVER OVER OVER (111) MIAMI at (112) NEW ENGLAND -9.5 New England New England Miami New England Miami New England (111) MIAMI at (112) NEW ENGLAND - Total 48 UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER (115) NY GIANTS at (116) NY JETS -3 NY Giants NY Jets* NY Jets* NY Giants* NY Jets NY Jets (115) NY GIANTS at (116) NY JETS - Total 46 OVER* UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER (127) PHILADELPHIA at (128) DALLAS -3 Dallas Dallas* Philadelphia Dallas* Dallas Dallas (127) PHILADELPHIA at (128) DALLAS - Total 50.5 OVER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER DON BEST JIM S TAKE NY Giants at NY Jets With as defensive-oriented as the Jets have been, as well as their dedication to the running game on offense, you d probably be surprised to find out that they are OVER the total under Rex Ryan. They are also 15-5 OVER against teams that give up over 5.6 yards per play on defense, meaning they are able to capitalize on weaker opposing defenses. Well, the Giants have been all of that lately on defense, giving up 36 PPG during their recent 1-3 swoon. Teams have been able to run and throw at will on this unit. At the same time, at least Eli Manning has been playing well. He should be able to keep the Giants in this game. Either way it s going to be high scoring. DON BEST ROBERT S TAKE Denver at Buffalo Tebow s Broncos are coming off their first loss in six games against a much stronger New England team and will look to right the ship and beat the lowly Bills. Buffalo has lost seven straight games outright and six of the L7 against the spread. Oddsmakers have opened Denver a small 3 point road favorite with the number holding steady. I expected the number to jump early with the media hype on Denver but bettors failed to move the line, apparently already abandoning the bandwagon. I never jumped on myself, and capitalized on the mismatch this past Sunday with the Patriots. Tebow loses again here, as his skills will be outmatched by a game Buffalo club. DON BEST BRYAN S TAKE Oakland at Kansas City The Raiders travel to Kansas City after collapsing in the 4th quarter against the Lions as Matt Stafford threw four TDs. The Chiefs knocked off the Packers with Orton at QB. Kansas City played an outstanding game against Green Bay, shutting down their offense. What worries me though is a letdown after that huge upset. The Oakland secondary should be able to keep a handle on Orton, and the Raiders are still in the division hunt, playing with revenge from the earlier 28-0 shutout by K.C. We see this one to be a bounce back game for Oakland. DON BEST JASON S TAKE Philadelphia at Dallas Oddsmakers, and the bettors that drive them to create the lines are apparently not ready to give up on the Dream Team just yet, as in most cases, a game such as this with a better host needing a win in Week 16 would have a pointspread in the minus-6 or minus-7 range. I ll take the value on the Cowboys and reflect on an old system that says to play against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after that team beat the spread by more than 21 points in its previous game. I don t recall the exact record, but it is better than a 75% system over the last decade. Keep dreaming, Dream Team, meanwhile I ll be on red-hot Romo & the boys. DON BEST PAUL S TAKE Oakland at Kansas City The Oakland Raiders have lost three in a row, blew a very winnable game at home to Detroit and are fading away like Sara Palin, so why will they not only cover but beat Kansas City on the road? It s simple, they are the Raiders. Strip away any chance of them to win and that is Oakland at their finest. The Raiders are 8-0 ATS in AFC West road tilts and 5-0 ATS in K.C. Take the silver and black. 4 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

7 11 Football Line Moves Bettors Must Know The Bowl Season continues with the numbers on the move in several directions thru next Tuesday and sharp bettors profiting handsomely. All but four NFL teams will have to heal quickly on short week as many important matchups with playoff implications go on Christmas Eve, Saturday. CFB (209) LOUISIANA TECH vs. (210) TCU The most common contention about the Poinsettia 1 Bowl is TCU will lack the motivation after playing in and winning the Rose Bowl last season. While that might be true, another point is Louisiana Tech is a very solid club, winners of seven straight (7-0 ATS) and better on both sides of the ball than most would presume. The Bulldogs were +11-point underdogs and are at +10 or lower. Louisiana Tech is 7-0 ATS as underdogs this season. Don Best Insider View Louisiana Tech covers NFL - (103) OAKLAND at (104) KANSAS CITY For this AFC West showdown, the total has dipped 2 from 43 to 42. If interim head coach Romeo Crennel can stifle the Green Bay offense, he sure can cut off what Oakland does to score points. Two factors to think about, the Raiders are 7-0 UNDER on the road after four or more Over s and Kansas City is 12-4 UNDER at home since last season. Don Best Insider View Play Under NFL - (109) ARIZONA at (110) CINCINNATI This is a situational line move based on current form. 3 Arizona is 6-1 SU in last seven and 6-2 ATS since the day before Halloween, playing great defense and making enough offensive plays. Cincinnati ATS in their last six tries and is an abhorrent 1-11 against the spread as home favorite. It did not take long for the Bengals to fall from -5.5 to -4.5-point favorites, despite the Cardinals 0-7 ATS mark on the road the last quarter of the season. Don Best Insider View Arizona covers NFL - (115) N.Y. GIANTS at (116) N.Y. JETS This is a must win for the only two teams that 4 share a stadium. The bettor s attention has been on the total, as 47 points did not hold and 46 is the adjusted figure. There are several strange aspects to think about this city matchup. The two teams are a combined 25-6 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The Giants are 8-2 OVER off a home loss, with the Jets UNDER after permitting 400 or more yards. Don Best Insider View Play Over NFL - (117) MINNESOTA at (118) WASHINGTON It sometimes doesn t take much to sway football 5 bettors thoughts. Washington s upset of the Giants gives them some positive mojo and Minnesota s potentially worst season ever continues, having to play outdoors, not their favorite environment. The Redskins have been elevated from -5.5 to -6.5, with the thought they are just the better team. But this isn t the Skins most comfortable role since they are is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last three seasons. Don Best Insider View Minnesota covers NFL - (119) TAMPA BAY at (120) CAROLINA Conventional wisdom would suggest that if you 6 have the No. 26 and No. 31 teams in points allowed facing each other, the total would be mounting like the presents around the Christmas tree. Instead, we have witnessed a sinking total, down a point to 46. The best explanation is these division partners are 9-2 UNDER at Carolina. Don t buy it, these are two mediocre defenses and that will fall prey to a shootout, weather permitting. Don Best Insider View Play Over NFL - (123) SAN DIEGO at (124) DETROIT Philip Rivers is back to his old self and San Diego 7 is scoring over 36 points a game in the last three outings. On top of that, Detroit s Matthew Stafford is not that far behind and his Lions are averaging 29.3 point a contest at Ford Field. A rising total from 50.5 to 51.5 seems realistic, particularly with the Chargers 6-0 OVER in road games after a win by 10 or more points. Don Best Insider View Play Over CFB - (213) NEVADA vs. (214) SOUTHERN MISS Coach Larry Fedora might be heading to North 8 Carolina after the Hawaii Bowl but he first wants to have his named associated with possibly the first 12-win team in Southern Miss history. Fedora s high-octane offense might also be linked to one of the higher scoring bowls of the year with this contest rising two points to a total of 62. Southern Miss is 15-5 OVER in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 31 or more. Nevada s perception as a high scoring outfit is taken into consideration and they are 4-1 UNDER in previous bowl games. Don Best Insider View Play Over CFB (215) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (216) MISSOURI Missouri s closing statement of the regular season 9 with a 3-0 record has impressed the wagering world and lifted the Tigers from -3.5 to -5. Missouri played a tougher schedule and has a 102 to 73 edge in offensive and defensive yard differentials compared to opponents season average. Every bettor should know the Tigers are 3-8 ATS at neutral sites, while North Carolina is 19-9 ATS as an underdog. Don Best Insider View North Carolina covers CFB (219) LOUISVILLE vs. (220) N.C. STATE (side and total) Of the bowl games that are about to be 10 & 11 played, the newly named Belk Bowl has drawn the most two-way action. N.C. State coach Tom O Brien s sparkling 9-2 ATS bowl record has the Wolfpack up a point to Louisville s 23-ranked total defense undoubtedly played a part in the total sinking from 45.5 to Coach O Brien is 7-0 ATS with more than a week to prepare, with the Cardinals UNDER this season. Don Best Insider View NC State covers and Over The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 5

8 NFL Strength Ratings Don Best has developed four different types of time-tested strength ratings for use in The Don Best Weekly Insider. In the chart below, you ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The POWER RATINGS columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The EFFECTIVE STRENGTH (Effective Strg) RATINGS quantify a team s performance against varied schedule strengths. The SIMULATION is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the BETTORS RATINGS are built using a unique formula of a team s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total. DB Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Ratings # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 101 HOUSTON HOU INDIANAPOLIS OAKLAND KANSAS CITY DENVER OVER BUFFALO BUF 26 BUF 22 BUF 107 JACKSONVILLE UNDER TENNESSEE ARIZONA OVER CINCINNATI MIAMI NEW ENGLAND CLEVELAND UNDER BALTIMORE BAL NY GIANTS OVER NY JETS MINNESOTA WASHINGTON TAMPA BAY CAROLINA ST LOUIS UNDER 15 OVER 122 PITTSBURGH PITT SAN DIEGO DETROIT SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE PHILADELPHIA DALLAS CHICAGO CHI 19 OVER GREEN BAY ATLANTA UNDER UNDER 132 NEW ORLEANS The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

9 nfl Head-to-Head Series Breakdown For every issue of the Don Best Weekly Insider this season, we ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-tohead series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week s breakdowns, in official Don Best Schedule Rotation order. (101) HOUSTON at (102) INDIANAPOLIS Houston has never won in Indianapolis in nine tries since joining the NFL ranks back in However, the Colts are just 5-4 ATS in those games and if ever there was a time for the Texans to break the seal, it would be this game. The Texans have won two of the L3 overall in this series and have a 7-3 ATS edge in L10. The L2 meetings went UNDER the total after OVER was 10-1 in the prior 11. (103) OAKLAND at (104) KANSAS CITY Kansas City s 28-0 win at Oakland in October extended a run of road and underdog dominance in the teams head-to-head series. Dating back to 2003, road teams own an incredible record of 15-2 ATS in this series. Meanwhile, a favorite has not won ATS since 10 games ago, as dogs are on an ATS run. Not to be outdone, 11 of the L13 games between the AFC West rivals went UNDER the total. (105) DENVER at (106) BUFFALO Denver and Buffalo have played an entertaining AFC series in recent years, with four of the L5 games decided by a touchdown or less. The Broncos own a 4-1 SU edge in that span, but the Bills have covered the pointspread in four of the five contests, all as the underdogs. OVER the total is also 4-1 in those games. (107) JACKSONVILLE at (108) TENNESSEE Jacksonville and Tennessee have played a defensive-minded series in recent years, with six of the L7 meetings between these AFC South rivals going UNDER the total. The losing team has scored just 11 PPG in that span. The Jaguars have won the L2 games, both SU & ATS, including a decision at home in September. (109) ARIZONA at (110) CINCINNATI Arizona has knocked off Cincinnati in each of the teams L2 meetings, in 2003 & The Cardinals also hold a 4-1 ATS edge over the Bengals in head-to-head play dating back to 94. The most recent matchup in 07 was also in Cincy, a victory for Arizona (+3). (111) MIAMI at (112) NEW ENGLAND Since Miami pulled the upset of New England at home in December of 09, the Patriots have rebounded by beating the Dolphins three straight times, both SU & ATS, while scoring 39 PPG. Naturally, all three games went OVER the total as well. However, road teams are on a surge of 7-2 ATS in this divisional set. (113) CLEVELAND at (114) BALTIMORE Baltimore ran its winning streak over Cleveland to seven games (6-1 ATS) with a road victory three weeks ago. It was also the fourth straight ATS win by the road team in the series, and the sixth time in eight games that the chalk cashed the betting ticket. With the Browns scoring just 8.0 PPG in the L5 meetings, UNDER the total is also 4-1. (115) NY GIANTS at (116) NY JETS Thankfully for the Jets, the battle for bragging rights in New York happens just once every four years in the regular season. The Giants have won the L4 meetings, going ATS in the process. In fact, it s been 18 years since the Jets last won in the cross-town series. OVER the total has swept the most recent three games. (117) MINNESOTA at (118) WASHINGTON Minnesota has won in both of its two most recent trips to Washington, most recently in 2010, and prior to that, in Overall, road teams have swept the L3 games between these teams, both SU & ATS. Going back a bit further, underdogs are on a 6-2 ATS run in the set since 93, and UNDER the total shares that same 6-2 mark. (119) TAMPA BAY at (120) CAROLINA Carolina blasted Tampa Bay on the road three weeks ago, as 3-point favorites, extending the recent run of dominance by the chalk in this NFC South series to 7-1 ATS since 07. The L6 times the teams have played in Carolina have been split 3/3 SU & ATS, while UNDER is on a 6-1 run in the L7 with the Panthers playing as hosts. (121) ST LOUIS at (122) PITTSBURGH Including the teams biggest historical head-to-head game in the 1980 Super Bowl, all of the L9 meetings between the Rams and Steelers have been decided by double-digit margins. The Steelers certainly have a good shot at making it 10 blowouts in a row. Incidentally, Pittsburgh has a 6-3 SU & ATS edge in those games. (123) SAN DIEGO at (124) DETROIT Brace yourself for this, but the Lions have not beaten the Chargers since 1978, and the teams have played six times since. The most recent meeting was the worst of all, as host San Diego (-9) throttled Detroit in December of 07. (125) SAN FRANCISCO at (126) SEATTLE Host San Francisco beat Seattle in September, 33-17, to run the winning streak of home teams in the NFC West series to five games, both SU & ATS. The 49ers haven t enjoyed nearly the same level of success in Seattle though, going 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS since 02. (127) PHILADELPHIA at (128) DALLAS The Cowboys will be looking to extend a 5-game ATS winning streak by home teams in their series with the Eagles when the teams get together on Saturday in a critical game for Dallas. However, the last time the Eagles were in Dallas, they won 30-27, coming up just shy of the 4-point road chalk line. Three of the L4 meetings in Dallas went OVER the total. (129) CHICAGO at (130) GREEN BAY Other than a season sweep of the Packers in the season, things have not gone as hoped in the head-to-head series of late for the Bears. Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings, though the games have been highly competitive. Road teams are on a three game SU & ATS winning streak in the set, and UNDER has been the winning totals wager in eight straight. (131) ATLANTA at (132) NEW ORLEANS The underdog has won three straight games outright and five in-a-row ATS in the NFC South series between Atlanta and New Orleans, including the win by the Saints (+1) in Atlanta in November. The L3 games played in New Orleans went OVER the total, producing 55.7 PPG. The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 7

10 Top Weekly NFL Trends TEAMS TO PLAY ON (111) MIAMI AT (112) NEW ENGLAND 40.7% ROI NEW ENGLAND IS ATS(L50G) at Home Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per carry(l25g) ( $1610 Profit with a 40.7% ROI ) (113) CLEVELAND AT (114) BALTIMORE 41.6% BALTIMORE IS 23-8 ATS(L50G) at Home as Fav Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(cs) ROI ( $1420 Profit with a 41.6% ROI ) (119) TAMPA BAY AT (120) CAROLINA 44.6% CAROLINA IS 25-8 ATS(L50G) as Fav Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) ROI ( $1620 Profit with a 44.6% ROI ) TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST (101) HOUSTON AT (102) INDIANAPOLIS 43.4% ROI HOUSTON IS ATS(L50G) Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(L25G) ( $1720 Profit with a 43.4% ROI ) (105) DENVER AT (106) BUFFALO 47.8% DENVER IS 7-24 ATS(L50G) as Fav Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.0 yards per attempt(l50g) ROI ( $1630 Profit with a 47.8% ROI ) (121) ST LOUIS AT (122) PITTSBURGH 52.1% ST LOUIS IS ATS(L50G) Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 18.5 PPG(CS) ROI ( $2810 Profit with a 52.1% ROI ) GAMES TO PLAY OVER (115) NY GIANTS AT (116) NY JETS 26.0% ROI NY JETS IS OVER(L50G) All Games ( $1430 Profit with a 26.0% ROI ) (123) SAN DIEGO AT (124) DETROIT 40.3% SAN DIEGO IS OVER(L50G) on Road Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per play(cs) ROI ( $1330 Profit with a 40.3% ROI ) (125) SAN FRANCISCO AT (126) SEATTLE 26.0% SAN FRANCISCO IS OVER(L50G) Against lesser offensive teams averaging less than 5.1 yards per play(cs) ROI ( $1430 Profit with a 26.0% ROI ) GAMES TO PLAY UNDER (111) MIAMI AT (112) NEW ENGLAND 33.6% ROI MIAMI IS 21-9 UNDER(L50G) Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(l25g) ( $1110 Profit with a 33.6% ROI ) (117) MINNESOTA AT (118) WASHINGTON 33.1% WASHINGTON IS UNDER(L50G) Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than yards per point(cs) ROI ( $1310 Profit with a 33.1% ROI ) (119) TAMPA BAY AT (120) CAROLINA 39.3% CAROLINA IS UNDER(L50G) at Home division games ROI ( $1600 Profit with a 39.3% ROI ) 8 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

11 NFL Matchups The Don Best Weekly Insider (101) HOUSTON ( ) [SU:10-4 ATS:9-4-1] AT (102) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:1-13 ATS:5-9] DECEMBER 22, :25 PM on NFL - LUCAS OIL STADIUM (INDIANAPOLIS, IN) Offensive STATISTICS Defensive Statistics 2011 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HOUSTON [4.4] [7.5] [4.2] [5.5] INDIANAPOLIS [4.4] [5.6] [4.1] [7.5] Houston s seven-game winning streak came to a crashing halt along with likely the chances to round up a first round bye in the post-season. Rookie T.J. Yates played like a rookie against Carolina, which Texans fans and teammates hope is not a foreshadowing of future performances. Houston is 15-5 ATS in road games after scoring 14 points or less. Indianapolis finally scratched in the win column and will try to send their fans home for the season with a two-game winning streak. The Colts rushed for 205 yards against Tennessee, which was their most since Sept.30, It s unlikely Indianapolis will have such luck again, but they are ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. INDIANAPOLIS IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) Against elite defensive teams allowing less than 17 PPG(CS) INDIANAPOLIS IS OVER(L10G) Against solid passing defenses yielding less than 5.95 yards per attempt(cs) HOUSTON IS 8-17 ATS(L25G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(cs) (103) OAKLAND [SU:7-7 ATS:9-5] AT (104) KANSAS CITY (-1 42) [SU:6-8 ATS:8-6] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on CBS - ARROWHEAD STADIUM (KANSAS CITY, MO) OAKLAND [4.6] [7.3] [5.1] [6.3] KANSAS CITY [3.9] [6.0] [4.2] [7.2] Since playing in the Super Bowl during the 2002 campaign, the Oakland Raiders have made countless dumb plays and frequently let wins slip through their fingers. Last Sunday at home against Detroit is the latest chapter in their soon to be released Kindle book, Blown Leads. Oakland is as equally close to first place as they are to last in their division and are 8-0 ATS in division road games. Kansas City ruined Green Bay s perfect season and will continue to fight to finish.500, especially if it will help keep interim head coach Romeo Crennel around, a Chiefs players favorite. Kansas City is 16-6 ATS at home after a win by six points or less. OAKLAND IS 9-1 ATS(L10G) on Road division games OAKLAND IS UNDER(L25G) Against lesser offensive teams averaging less than 5.1 yards per play(cs) KANSAS CITY IS 8-2 UNDER(L10G) All Games (105) DENVER ( ) [SU:8-6 ATS:7-6-1] AT (106) BUFFALO [SU:5-9 ATS:5-8-1] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on CBS - RALPH WILSON STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY) DENVER [4.9] [5.9] [4.1] [7.0] BUFFALO [4.8] [6.4] [4.8] [7.3] Denver was not in New England s stratosphere, however with two wins, they will have the same chances in the playoffs as the Patriots. The Broncos take on Buffalo, who is playing like a child on a snowy hill heading down the slope, which should work to Denver s advantage. The Broncos No. 1 running offense should have no problems against the Bills No. 29 run defense. Denver is 8-0 ATS in away outings when they rush for 125 or more yards. Buffalo s coaching staff claims it is still pleased with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but riding a seven-game losing streak makes that as believable as a reindeer on the roof later this week. The Bills are 1-8 ATS off a division encounter. DENVER IS ATS(L25G) as Fav Conference games BUFFALO IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) as Dog Conference games DENVER IS 9-1 OVER(L10G) Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.5 yards per carry(l25g) The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 9

12 The Don Best Weekly Insider NFL Matchups (107) JACKSONVILLE [SU:4-10 ATS:5-8-1] AT (108) TENNESSEE ( ) [SU:7-7 ATS:6-8] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on CBS - LP FIELD (NASHVILLE, TN) JACKSONVILLE [3.9] [4.7] [4.0] [6.4] TENNESSEE [3.9] [6.5] [4.4] [6.2] It has been star-crossed season for Jacksonville, yet they can manufacture one real positive, sweeping Tennessee this year. Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert would also like to finish a humbling season with a positive vibe heading into next year. A way to do that might be by handing the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew, who is chasing the rushing title. The Jaguars are 4-8 ATS at Tennessee. The Titans are still in the playoff picture but blew a golden opportunity to stay near the top with lame effort at Indianapolis. With Tennessee hanging on to faint playoff hopes, the Jake Locker era could get started this Saturday. The Titans are 9-1 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards. JACKSONVILLE IS ATS(L25G) on Road Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS) TENNESSEE IS ATS(L25G) as favorite of 7 or less points TENNESSEE IS 17-8 OVER(L25G) at Home Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.0 yards per attempt(cs) (109) ARIZONA [SU:7-7 ATS:8-6] AT (110) CINCINNATI ( ) [SU:8-6 ATS:7-5-2] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on FOX - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH) ARIZONA [4.2] [6.6] [4.0] [6.6] CINCINNATI [3.8] [6.5] [3.7] [6.3] Unbelievably, Arizona has worked their way back to 7-7 by winning six of seven and essentially using a backup quarterback during this stretch. With Kevin Kolb unable to stay healthy, John Skeleton is 5-1 as the starting quarterback, but like Tim Tebow, Skelton has benefitted from a much improved Cardinals defense that is permitting just 17.4 PPG during this period. The Cards are feckless 0-6 ATS in December away contests. Cincinnati needs two wins and one more Jets loss to nab the sixth playoff spot. For all the praise Andy Dalton has received, the Bengals haven t scored more than 23 points in a month. The Bengals 1-11 ATS record as home favorites is a concern for this non-conference clash. ARIZONA IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) on Road Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9 yards per carry(cs) CINCINNATI IS ATS(L25G) as Fav All Games ARIZONA IS 19-6 OVER(L25G) Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.2 yards per play(cs) (111) MIAMI [SU:5-9 ATS:7-7] AT (112) NEW ENGLAND ( ) [SU:11-3 ATS:8-6] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on CBS - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA) MIAMI [4.3] [6.7] [3.6] [6.8] NEW ENGLAND [4.0] [8.4] [4.6] [7.7] With the East Division locked up, New England s focus shifts to collecting one of the two top slots in the AFC. It s evident the Patriots will have to play well in the red zone and continue forcing turnovers, because invariably they will permit a number of yards. During this six-game winning runoff, the Pats are +12 in turnover margin. New England is ATS the last two weeks of the season. Miami ended up holding Buffalo 0-23 on third down this year in two wins. The Dolphins have won just two cold weather games in the last quarter of the season in the past 28 years. Miami is 13-4 ATS in road battles after the first month of the season. NEW ENGLAND IS 19-6 OVER(L25G) All Games MIAMI IS 18-7 UNDER(L25G) on Road All Games MIAMI IS 4-6 ATS(L10G) Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75 yards per attempt(l25g) 10 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

13 NFL Matchups The Don Best Weekly Insider (113) CLEVELAND [SU:4-10 ATS:6-7-1] AT (114) BALTIMORE ( ) [SU:10-4 ATS:7-6-1] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on CBS - M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD) CLEVELAND [3.6] [5.6] [4.4] [6.5] BALTIMORE [4.1] [6.3] [3.4] [6.0] Baltimore got their backside handed to them in San Diego and has to regroup and win the last two games heading into the playoffs for positioning and momentum purposes. Joe Flacco needs to revitalize the passing game, having not thrown for more than 215 yards in over a month. Feeding the pigskin to Ray Rice has improved the offense overall, but the Ravens are not going anywhere without a passing offense. Baltimore is 9-0 ATS after being outgained by 100 or more total yards. Will Seneca Wallace start for Cleveland even if Colt McCoy is cleared from concussion? The offense was crisper at times against Arizona with Wallace and McCoy is 0-8 and 2-6 ATS versus the AFC North. BALTIMORE IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) at Home as Fav Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(cs) CLEVELAND IS 6-19 ATS(L25G) as Dog Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per(cs) CLEVELAND IS OVER(L25G) on Road Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 5.1 yards per play(cs) (115) NY GIANTS [SU:7-7 ATS:6-7-1] AT (116) NY JETS (-3 46) [SU:8-6 ATS:6-8] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on CBS - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ) NY GIANTS [3.4] [7.9] [4.5] [7.3] NY JETS [3.7] [6.2] [4.0] [6.4] In the battle of New Jersey s finest, the loser is in a heap of trouble. The Jets can ill afford another defeat since it could cause them to fall out of playoffs. While the Jets talk about how much better they are, their record doesn t back it up with breakdowns in various positions on the field. After playing a contest with 50 or more points, the Flyboys are 6-0 ATS at home. In the proverbial trap game, the Giants fell victim to Washington and altering their position to a pair of must win confrontations. That would include better efforts from players not named Eli Manning and Jason Pierre-Paul. The G-Men are 3-12 ATS vs. opponents scoring 24 or more PPG. NY JETS IS ATS(L25G) Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9 yards per carry(cs) NY JETS IS 19-6 OVER(L25G) Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(l25g) NY GIANTS IS OVER(L25G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(l25g) The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 11

14 The Don Best Weekly Insider NFL Matchups (117) MINNESOTA [SU:2-12 ATS:5-8-1] AT (118) WASHINGTON ( ) [SU:5-9 ATS:7-7] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on FOX - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD) MINNESOTA [5.2] [5.7] [3.8] [7.7] WASHINGTON [3.8] [6.5] [4.1] [6.8] With two more setbacks, the 2011 Vikings will go down as the worst team in franchise history. Minnesota will attempt to avoid that abashment starting in Washington. Despite taking Christian Ponder as quarterback in last year s draft, coach Leslie Frazier isn t closing the door on considering another in next year s draft. We have two games left, so I want to continue to watch him play...frazier said. The Vikes are 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 or more total yards. Washington still needs players, but took full advantage of an indifferent Giants squad in sweeping them this season. Redskins players clearly felt empowered with the triumph, nevertheless are 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. MINNESOTA IS 7-3 UNDER(L10G) Against mediocre teams being outscored by opponents by more than 4.0 points per game(l25g) MINNESOTA IS ATS(L10G) AS underdog of 7 or less points WASHINGTON IS 7-3 UNDER(L10G) Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than yards per point(cs) (119) TAMPA BAY [SU:4-10 ATS:4-10] AT (120) CAROLINA ( ) [SU:5-9 ATS:8-6] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on FOX - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM (CHARLOTTE, NC) TAMPA BAY [4.4] [6.2] [4.6] [7.8] CAROLINA [5.1] [7.4] [4.6] [7.9] Tampa Bay is on its longest losing streak in 24 years and faces a division foe intended on making it last longer. Coach Raheem Morris is questioning his team s commitment to playing hard quite often in falling eight straight times, yet you have to wonder if Morris message is getting thru. The Bucs are 3-7 ATS in Charlotte. Carolina s season will end after Week 17, but many are already looking ahead. The Panthers have won and covered three of four contests and a review of the season has them leading in 13 of their 14 games, which includes six losses they either led or were tied in the fourth quarter. These teams are 9-2 UNDER in Carolina. CAROLINA IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) as Fav Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) TAMPA BAY IS 8-17 ATS(L25G) as Dog On grass field TAMPA BAY IS UNDER(L25G) Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per attempt(cs) 12 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

15 NFL Matchups The Don Best Weekly Insider (121) ST LOUIS [SU:2-12 ATS:2-11-1] AT (122) PITTSBURGH ( ) [SU:10-4 ATS:6-8] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on FOX - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA) ST LOUIS [4.0] [5.3] [4.8] [6.7] PITTSBURGH [4.3] [7.6] [3.9] [5.4] Look for St. Louis to shut down Sam Bradford for the rest of the year with his bum ankle. At 2-12, nothing is to be gained to exposing Bradford to more hits and further injury, particularly against the Steelers defensive pressure. Kellen Clemens played well on short notice against Cincinnati and might be invited to the Rams camp with another decent showing. The Rams have failed to cover every game they have lost. The Steelers will have to make decision to possibly concede the division to Baltimore and sit Ben Roethlisberger to get him as healthy as possible for the playoffs since is one-legged act did little in San Francisco. The Steelers are ATS as December home favorites. PITTSBURGH IS 17-8 UNDER(L25G) AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 20%+ WINNING PCT(CS) ST LOUIS IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 18.5 PPG(CS) PITTSBURGH IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) After SU loss (123) SAN DIEGO [SU:7-7 ATS:5-9] AT (124) DETROIT ( ) [SU:9-5 ATS:6-7-1] DECEMBER 24, :05 PM on CBS - FORD FIELD (DETROIT, MI) SAN DIEGO [4.2] [7.6] [4.4] [7.1] DETROIT [4.3] [6.9] [5.2] [6.0] Four weeks ago, this was just another game on the Week 16 schedule, not anymore. San Diego has added some real zest by winning three in a row and crawling back into the division race. Philip Rivers is back on target throwing and the running game has added gusto to the Chargers offense. The Bolts are 14-1 ATS in domes as two or more point underdogs. For long-suffering Detroit followers, Christmas Eve could be an early present. The Lions are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 with a victory. Detroit s in this position thanks to Matthew Stafford bailing them out again last week and the Lions are 8-1 ATS off two or more Over s. DETROIT IS 21-4 OVER(L25G) Non-conference games SAN DIEGO IS ATS(L25G) as Dog AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 60%+ WINNING PCT(CS) SAN DIEGO IS OVER(L10G) 1500 or more travel miles (125) SAN FRANCISCO (-3 38) [SU:11-3 ATS:11-2-1] AT (126) SEATTLE [SU:7-7 ATS:9-4-1] DECEMBER 24, :15 PM on FOX - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA) SAN FRANCISCO [4.2] [6.5] [3.3] [6.5] SEATTLE [3.8] [6.2] [3.7] [6.5] Seattle s post-season aspirations are cut and dry, win twice and have Detroit lose two and Seahawks overtake the Lions. Seattle has destroyed three consecutive opponents by a margin of 19 points a game. Their win over Chicago was a confidencebuilder since Marshawn Lynch was limited to 2.2 yards a carry. The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS vs. the NFC in San Francisco will spend the final two weeks on the road against division opponents, working on connecting on deep throws and continued improvement in the red zone. While Alex Smith still doesn t appear capable of winning games himself, the 49ers stifling defense sure does. The Niners are 1-11 ATS on the road after SU and spread win over non-division foe. SEATTLE IS 19-6 OVER(L25G) All Games SAN FRANCISCO IS ATS(L25G) Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(L50G) SAN FRANCISCO IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9 yards per carry(cs) The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 13

16 The Don Best Weekly Insider NFL Matchups (127) PHILADELPHIA [SU:6-8 ATS:6-8] AT (128) DALLAS ( ) [SU:8-6 ATS:5-8-1] DECEMBER 24, :15 PM on FOX - COWBOY STADIUM (ARLINGTON, TX) PHILADELPHIA [5.2] [7.3] [4.3] [6.9] DALLAS [4.5] [7.7] [4.2] [6.9] The Eagles are still a longshot to make the playoffs, which might be good for the rest of the teams in the NFC with the way they are coming on. However, a win Saturday afternoon coupled with a Giants loss could remove the longshot tag. Why is Philadelphia playing so well the last two weeks? Quite possibly it was the lack of training camp with so many new, yet talented faces that needed time together. The Eagles are 10-1 ATS as December division road dogs. Dallas controls its playoff destiny and is hoping the pressure will fuel a similar run to what Green Bay had last year. Dallas is only 4-15 ATS as a favorite since last year. DALLAS IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) at Home Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per attempt(cs) PHILADELPHIA IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) as Dog Conference games DALLAS IS 6-19 ATS(L25G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(l25g) (129) CHICAGO [SU:7-7 ATS:6-7-1] AT (130) GREEN BAY (NL NL) [SU:13-1 ATS:9-5] DECEMBER 25, :20 PM on NBC - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI) CHICAGO [4.4] [6.3] [4.1] [6.4] GREEN BAY [4.0] [8.7] [4.7] [7.4] Mum is the word out of the Windy City on who will be the starting quarterback on Christmas night in Green Bay for the Bears. Caleb Hanie (nine picks) struggled in his fourth consecutive start and Josh McCown played the final five minutes in being slaughtered by Seattle. Chicago is 1-13 ATS as a December road underdog vs. opponent off a loss and non-cover. Green Bay s offensive line injury report is becoming as long Kobe Bryant s soon to be former wife s list of wants will be. Each week brings a new injury and replacements are finally lacking. The receivers are dropping passes like hints. The Packers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times coming off a game scoring less than 20 points. GREEN BAY IS ATS(L10G) Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(cs) CHICAGO IS ATS(L25G) Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(cs) GREEN BAY IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) at Home Conference games (131) ATLANTA [SU:9-5 ATS:8-6] AT (132) NEW ORLEANS ( ) [SU:11-3 ATS:10-4] DECEMBER 26, :35 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA) ATLANTA [3.9] [7.0] [4.0] [6.8] NEW ORLEANS [4.7] [7.9] [4.9] [6.6] Atlanta wants to keep gathering momentum heading into the postseason and a revenge victory over New Orleans would help the team psyche a great deal. If a revitalized John Abraham can continue as a sack-master, the Falcons could be make life uncomfortable for Drew Brees and improve to 10-1 ATS the final four weeks of the regular season. In spite of Green Bay s better season record, New Orleans is the team that is peaking with a 6-0 SU and ATS record with a flourishing offense. Brees needs 305 yards to break Dan Marino s all-time record for passing yards and his team is 9-1 SU and ATS at home since beating Pittsburgh last year. ATLANTA IS 19-6 ATS(L25G) Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards per point(cs) NEW ORLEANS IS 6-19 ATS(L25G) at Home division games NEW ORLEANS IS 17-8 OVER(L25G) Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75 yards per attempt(cs) 14 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

17 Don Best College Football Exclusive Picks The Don Best Weekly Insider COLLEGE FOOTBALL * = BEST BET Home Line Don Best Jim Don Best RObert Don Best BRYAN Don Best jason Don Best paul Consensus OVERALL RECORD (LAST WEEK) BEST BET RECORD (LAST WEEK) , 47% (2-4) , 52% (0-2) , 50% (4-2) , 58% (1-1) , 52% (2-4) 29-16, 64% (1-2) , 53% (4-2) 22-22, 50% (1-1) , 61% (2-4) , 64% (1-1) , 55% (3-3) (209) LOUISIANA TECH VS (210) TCU Louisiana Tech Lousiana Tech* Louisiana Tech* TCU* Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech (209) LOUISIANA TECH VS (210) TCU - Total 55.5 UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER* UNDER (211) ARIZONA ST VS (212) BOISE ST -14 Boise St Boise St Arizona St Boise St Boise St* Boise St (211) ARIZONA ST VS (212) BOISE ST - Total 65.5 UNDER* UNDER* UNDER* OVER OVER UNDER (213) NEVADA VS (214) SOUTHERN MISS -6 Nevada* Southern Miss* Nevada Nevada Southern Miss Nevada (213) NEVADA VS (214) SOUTHERN MISS - Total 61.5 OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER* UNDER (215) NORTH CAROLINA VS (216) MISSOURI -4.5 North Carolina Missouri Missouri Missouri* Missouri Missouri (215) NORTH CAROLINA VS (216) MISSOURI - Total 53 OVER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER (217) W MICHIGAN VS (218) PURDUE -2 Purdue* Purdue W Michigan* Purdue* W Michigan Purdue (217) W MICHIGAN VS (218) PURDUE - Total 60 UNDER OVER* OVER OVER OVER OVER (219) LOUISVILLE VS (220) NC STATE -3 Louisville* NC State Louisville * Louisville* NC State* Louisville (219) LOUISVILLE VS (220) NC STATE - Total 44.5 UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 15

18 Conference Bowl Game Records Chart Here are the bowl records for each of the conferences in various time spans. Included are the conference records outright, against-the-spread, as favorites, as underdogs, and over-under on totals. A trend for each conference in the various time categories is also included. Note, these are the records heading into the bowl season and do not reflect any games played thus far this season BOWL SEASON SU ATS as FAV (ATS) as DOG (ATS) CONFERENCE W-L (%) W-L (%) W-L (%) W-L (%) OV-UN (%) TREND ACC 4-5 (44%) 5-4 (56%) 1-2 (33%) 4-2 (67%) 4-5 (44%) * DOGS 6-3 ATS in games BIG EAST 4-2 (67%) 4-2 (67%) 2-1 (67%) 1-1 (50%) 4-2 (67%) * 4-1 ATS lines +5 to -5 BIG (38%) 5-3 (63%) 2-0 (100%) 3-3 (50%) 5-3 (63%) * 3-0 ATS vs Big 12 BIG (38%) 2-6 (25%) 2-3 (40%) 0-2 (0%) 5-3 (63%) * 0-3 ATS vs Big 10 CONF USA 2-4 (33%) 2-4 (33%) 0-1 (0%) 2-3 (40%) 4-2 (67%) * 3-1 OVER in losses INDEPENDENT 2-1 (67%) 2-1 (67%) 0-0 (-) 2-1 (67%) 1-2 (33%) * DOG in all 3 bowls MAC 2-2 (50%) 2-1 (67%) 1-0 (100%) 1-1 (50%) 4-0 (100%) * All 4 bowls OVER MOUNTAIN WEST 4-1 (80%) 3-2 (60%) 3-1 (75%) 0-1 (0%) 1-4 (20%) * FAVS won 4 of 5 ATS PAC (50%) 2-2 (50%) 1-1 (50%) 1-1 (50%) 0-4 (0%) * All 4 bowls UNDER SEC 5-5 (50%) 5-5 (50%) 4-3 (57%) 1-2 (33%) 5-5 (50%) * 3-1 ATS vs Big 10 SUN BELT 2-1 (67%) 1-1 (50%) 1-1 (50%) 0-0 (-) 3-0 (100%) * All 3 bowls OVER WAC 2-2 (50%) 1-3 (25%) 1-2 (33%) 0-1 (0%) 2-2 (50%) * Lost 3 of 4 ATS Last Three Bowl Seasons SU ATS as FAV (ATS) as DOG (ATS) CONFERENCE W-L (%) W-L (%) W-L (%) W-L (%) OV-UN (%) TREND ACC (42%) (56%) 5-6 (45%) 9-4 (69%) 9-17 (35%) * 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS vs SEC BIG EAST 12-6 (67%) 10-7 (59%) 7-4 (64%) 2-3 (40%) 8-10 (44%) * 5-0 SU & ATS vs non-bcs BIG (36%) 13-9 (59%) 3-1 (75%) 10-8 (56%) (45%) * 9-2 ATS lines +5 to -5 BIG (48%) 7-16 (30%) 5-8 (38%) 2-8 (20%) (43%) * 0-6 SU & ATS vs SEC CONF USA 8-10 (44%) 9-9 (50%) 3-4 (43%) 6-5 (55%) 9-9 (50%) * 7-3 ATS vs non-bcs INDEPENDENT 4-2 (67%) 4-2 (67%) 1-0 (100%) 3-2 (60%) 3-3 (50%) * 2-0 OVER vs ACC MAC 3-11 (21%) 2-11 (15%) 1-3 (25%) 1-7 (13%) 8-6 (57%) * 0-3 SU & ATS vs BCS conf's MOUNTAIN WEST 11-4 (73%) 9-6 (60%) 3-3 (50%) 6-3 (67%) 7-8 (47%) * DOGS 4-1 ATS vs WAC PAC (56%) 9-7 (56%) 7-5 (58%) 2-2 (50%) 5-11 (31%) * 10-2 UNDER vs BCS conf's SEC (61%) (54%) 10-8 (56%) 5-5 (50%) (43%) * 6-0 SU & ATS vs Big 12 SUN BELT 4-3 (57%) 4-2 (67%) 1-2 (33%) 3-0 (100%) 6-1 (86%) * DOGS ATS in games WAC 5-8 (38%) 5-8 (38%) 2-6 (25%) 3-2 (60%) 7-6 (54%) * DOGS 7-4 ATS in games Last Ten Bowl Seasons SU ATS as FAV (ATS) as DOG (ATS) CONFERENCE W-L (%) W-L (%) W-L (%) W-L (%) OV-UN (%) TREND ACC (51%) (56%) (48%) 20-9 (69%) (44%) * 6-2 ATS as dog vs Big East BIG EAST (62%) (53%) (54%) (50%) (52%) * 13-1 SU & 10-4 ATS vs non-bcs BIG (41%) (53%) 7-13 (35%) (60%) (55%) * 11-4 ATS as dog vs Big 12 BIG (49%) (38%) (38%) (38%) (47%) * ATS vs BCS conf's CONF USA (41%) (47%) (52%) (44%) (48%) * 9-1 ATS vs WAC INDEPENDENT 6-9 (40%) 8-7 (53%) 2-0 (100%) 6-7 (46%) 8-7 (53%) * 5-1 ATS vs non-bcs MAC (35%) (36%) 8-5 (62%) 4-15 (21%) (50%) * ATS in L10 games MOUNTAIN WEST (63%) (58%) 11-8 (58%) 12-9 (57%) (43%) * 12-5 UNDER vs non-bcs PAC (54%) (55%) (47%) 13-6 (68%) (48%) * 12-4 ATS as dog vs BCS SEC (61%) (55%) (54%) (59%) (43%) * UNDER vs Big 12 & ACC SUN BELT 7-9 (44%) 8-7 (53%) 2-2 (50%) 6-5 (55%) 11-5 (69%) * 10-2 OVER in L12 games WAC (43%) (41%) 4-13 (24%) 10-9 (53%) (59%) * DOGS ATS in all games 16 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

19 POINSETTIA BOWL (209) LOUISIANA TECH [SU:8-4 ATS:10-2] VS (210) TCU ( ) [SU:10-2 ATS:5-6-1] DECEMBER 21, :00 PM on ESPN QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA) San Diego s Poinsettia Bowl will see its seventh annual game kick off on Wednesday, and TCU will be making its third appearance in the game. The Horned Frogs are 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS in their prior appearances in this showcase, winning in 2006 over Northern Illinois and in 2008 over Boise State. This will be TCU s first lined game against Louisiana Tech. The Horned Frogs used to be in the WAC themselves up through the 2000 season and are 3-4 ATS versus that league since. They are looking to snap a 3-game bowl ATS losing skid in this one. Tech, playing in just its second bowl game in 10 years, has no recent games against MWC teams to speak of. The Bulldogs beat NIU in the 08 Independence Bowl, as 1.5-point favorites. Offensive STATISTICS Defensive Statistics 2011 SEASON Offensive PPG Statistics FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD Defensive RUSHING Statistics PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISIANA TECH [3.8] [6.8] [3.4] [6.3] TCU (16) [5.2] [8.7] [3.5] [7.2] LOUISIANA TECH TCU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU VS NEW MEXICO ST W W U VS UNLV W W O at NEVADA W W U VS COLORADO ST W L U at MISSISSIPPI W W U at BOISE ST W W O at FRESNO ST W W O at WYOMING W L U VS SAN JOSE ST W W O VS BYU W L O at UTAH ST W W U VS NEW MEXICO W W O at IDAHO W W U at SAN DIEGO ST W W U VS HAWAII L L O VS SMU L L O at MISSISSIPPI ST L W U VS PORTLAND ST -42 NL W P VS HOUSTON L W O VS LA MONROE W L O VS C ARKANSAS -17 NL W L at AIR FORCE W W O at SOUTHERN MISS L W U at BAYLOR L L O After starting 1-4, coach Sonny Dykes did not let this inexperienced team quit (only 8 returning starters) and road wins at Idaho and Utah State turned Louisiana Tech s season around and they won their last seven games (7-0 ATS) to become WAC champions. The Bulldogs 55th rated defense was stingy when it counted, holding opponents to one touchdown less than they typically scored (22.5 vs points). Once QB Colby Cameron took over the offense, it came together, averaging of six more points per game. TCU has a choice in this year s Poinsettia Bowl, either let the disappointment of not making a second consecutive BCS game carryover as Mountain West champions again or go and lay out Louisiana Tech and make sure everyone knows you belonged. QB Casey Pachall emerged from Andy Dalton s long shadow with a brilliant year, with a high-powered passing attack that averaged 8.7 yards per attempt. With Gary Patterson as coach, the Horned Frogs will always have a run-first mentality, finishing 20th in the country at yards per game and 15th at 5.2 YPC. TCU s defense was not up to previous standards. The Frogs were still good against the run (126 YPG allowed), just not the brick wall of prior years. Game Trends TCU IS ATS(L25G) Non-conference games LOUISIANA TECH IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per point(cs) LOUISIANA TECH IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(l25g) Bowl Game History This is the 7th annual Poinsettia Bowl and could quite possibly be the second one that showed a double-digit pointspread at kickoff. Incidentally, the first time it happened was in TCU s 2006 victory over Northern Illinois, a 37-7 decision in which the Horned Frogs were laying 12-points. Mountain West Conference teams have won the L5 games in this series, going 3-2 ATS. San Diego State won big last year as the chalk, but prior to that, underdogs had covered three straight. DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Ratings # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 209 LOUISIANA TECH LT TCU TCU DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS *BEST BET Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan Don Best Jason Don Best Paul Consensus Louisiana Tech Lousiana Tech* Louisiana Tech* TCU* Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER* UNDER Don BEST CONSENSUS TAKE TCU might have its hands full in the Poinsettia Bowl, playing a hungry Louisiana Tech team that has won seven straight games, but SU & ATS. The Horned Frogs are pretty good in their own right but I don t think you can possibly look at this game and think they didn t want more, especially when you consider they beat Boise State on the road. Thus, emotion is probably going to play a big role in this contest. Tech is undoubtedly happy to be here and you might actually be surprised to find out that the Bulldogs have the better defense in this game, 4.9 yards per play allowed to 5.2. It s hard to see a scenario where TCU takes this game seriously enough to win big. Tech and its red-hot defense hang tight on Wednesday. The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 17

20 LAS VEGAS BOWL (211) ARIZONA ST [SU:6-6 ATS:3-8-1] VS (212) BOISE ST ( ) [SU:11-1 ATS:4-8] DECEMBER 22, :00 PM on ESPN SAM BOYD STADIUM (LAS VEGAS, NV) It s a shame when somebody has to settle for a trip to Las Vegas, but that s exactly what Boise State has been reduced to after its 11-1 season came up short of BCS caliber. Instead, the Broncos take on a 6-6 team from the Pac 12. They boast a 5-3 SU & ATS versus Pac 10 foes since 03. Boise will be looking to extend a recent run of 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games. The Sun Devils meanwhile, are in a postseason contest for the first time since 07 and are looking to snap a 3-game bowl ATS losing skid. Arizona State has never faced Boise State but boasts a 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS mark in six prior games versus Mountain West teams. Offensive STATISTICS Statistics ARIZONA ST [4.2] [7.8] [4.3] [7.9] BOISE ST (8) [4.5] [8.4] [3.8] [6.6] ARIZONA ST BOISE ST DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU VS CALIFORNIA L L O VS NEW MEXICO W L U VS ARIZONA L L U VS WYOMING W L U at WASHINGTON ST L L O at SAN DIEGO ST W L O at UCLA L L O VS TCU L L O VS COLORADO W W O at UNLV W L O at OREGON L P O VS AIR FORCE W L O at UTAH W W P at COLORADO ST W W O VS OREGON ST W L O at FRESNO ST W W O VS USC W W O VS NEVADA W L U at ILLINOIS L L U VS TULSA W L U VS MISSOURI W L O at TOLEDO W W U VS UC-DAVIS NL W L GEORGIA W W O At the end of October, Arizona State was thinking Pac 12 South title, with a 6-2 record, after clobbering Colorado But that was the last time the Sun Devils tasted victory, losing four in a row and costing Dennis Erickson his job. Arizona runs a spread offense that worked better than expected with QB Brock Osweiler in command, averaging passing yards per game, ranking 11th in the nation. The defense was a complete disappointment, easily picked apart to close the season, surrendering 36 points per contest in final four outings. In the last eight years, Boise State has managed to earn or fall into impressive bowl assignments. This year is different and Boise State is not hiding their disappointment, having to play their third game in Las Vegas in a year (regular season game also) against a.500 Arizona State club. Quarterback Kellen Moore threw a school-record 41 touchdowns passes this season. Moore completed a pass to at least eight different receivers in every game, which enabled him to complete 74.1 percent of his passes, a career high. The Broncos defense finished 16th nationally, but was taken advantage of from time to time by stronger passing offenses. Game Trends ARIZONA ST IS ATS(L10G) On non-grass field BOISE ST IS 17-8 UNDER(L25G) Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per point(cs) BOISE ST IS 15-9 ATS(L25G) Non-conference games BOWL GAME HISTORY The Broncos take on a 6-6 team from the Pac 12 and boast a 5-3 SU & ATS versus Pac 10 foes since 03. Boise will be looking to extend a recent run of 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games. The Sun Devils meanwhile, are in a postseason contest for the first time since 07 and are looking to snap a 3-game bowl ATS losing skid. Arizona State has never faced Boise State but boasts a 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS mark in six prior games versus Mountain West teams. DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Ratings # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 211 ARIZONA ST AST BOISE ST UNDER DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS *BEST BET Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan Don Best Jason Don Best Paul Consensus Boise St Boise St Arizona St Boise St Boise St* Boise St UNDER* UNDER* UNDER* OVER OVER UNDER Don BEST CONSENSUS TAKE Like Wednesday s game with TCU, it would be easy to figure that Boise State would be disappointed to be playing in Vegas again this season, as the Broncos were a play or two away from being in the national title game discussion. If this story sounds familiar, it should because it s almost identical to a year ago. All Boise did a year ago in Vegas was show up and take care of business against an overmatched Utah team. Circumstances figure to be very similar in 2011, and surely HC Chris Petersen will have this team ready to play in what will be stud QB Kellen Moore s last game. With only three career losses on his resume, it s unlikely #4 is going to come against this struggling, mediocre Arizona State squad. Boise s offense and defense lays the hammer. 18 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

21 HAWAII BOWL (213) NEVADA [SU:7-5 ATS:5-6-1] VS (214) SOUTHERN MISS (-6 62) [SU:11-2 ATS:8-5] DECEMBER 24, :00 PM on ESPN ALOHA STADIUM (HONOLULU, HI) Nevada and Southern Miss will spend their Christmas holiday on the island as they entertain the rest of the country in the Hawaii Bowl on Saturday evening. The teams met twice in a home-andhome series in 97 & 98 with Southern Miss winning both games, neither of which were lined action. Since then, the Golden Eagles have met up with WAC foes five times, going 3-2 SU but just 1-4 ATS. They have dropped two straight bowl games SU & ATS after sweeping the prior three against the Vegas number. Nevada has played two recent games versus C-USA foes, both in this bowl game. The Wolf Pack split the games outright while going 0-2 ATS. They are looking to snap a 4-game bowl ATS losing skid, despite beating Boston College a year ago in San Francisco. Offensive STATISTICS Defensive Statistics 2011 SEASON Offensive Statistics PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD Defensive RUSHING StatisticsPASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEVADA [5.2] [8.5] [4.5] [6.8] SOUTHERN MISS (22) [5.3] [7.7] [3.2] [6.0] NEVADA southern MISS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU VS IDAHO W W O at HOUSTON W W O at UTAH ST L L U VS MEMPHIS W L U VS LOUISIANA TECH L L U at UAB L L O VS HAWAII W P O VS UCF W L O at NEW MEXICO ST W L O at EAST CAROLINA W W O VS FRESNO ST W L O at UTEP W W U VS NEW MEXICO W W U VS SMU W W U VS UNLV W W U at NAVY PK W W O at BOISE ST L W U VS RICE W W O at TEXAS TECH L W O at VIRGINIA W W U at SAN JOSE ST W L U VS SE LOUISIANA -30 NL 52-6 W W at OREGON L L O at MARSHALL L L U VS LOUISIANA TECH W L U As good as the Southern Miss offense performed Nevada s was even better, finishing fifth in the country at yards a contest. That figure is pretty remarkable considering the Wolf Pack had to replace Colin Kaepernick and play two different quarterbacks. Cody Fajardo was the more effective choice, being a better passer and runner. The running game manufactured yards on the ground with a variety of ball carriers. Despite the presence of DT Larry Ball, the defense did not match last year s high standards and has permitted 33.8 points per game away from Reno and 425 YPG. From the euphoria of being Conference USA championship for the first time eight years and achieving first-ever 11-win win campaign to disillusionment. The Golden Eagles were one most balanced in the country, rushing for yards and throwing for yard. Senior QB Austin Davis spearheaded the attack that finished 13th in total offense. The Southern Miss defense front is not large, but has exceptional quickness, limiting seven opponents to 100 or fewer yards rushing. The defense and special teams accounted for 12 touchdowns this season. Losing coach Larry Fedora (though he will coach the game) and being shipped this far away location has tempered the joy. Game Trends NEVADA IS ATS(L25G) Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per point(cs) SOUTHERN MISS IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) VS OPP with more than 6 days rest SOUTHERN MISS IS 14-9 OVER(L25G) All Games BOWL GAME HISTORY The Hawaii Bowl has been a high scoring series of late, with six of the L8 going OVER the total. Ironically, in the two games during that span that went UNDER, the winning team still eclipsed the 40-point mark, including the last time Nevada was here, a loss to SMU in 09. Victors have averaged 50 PPG in the L8. Underdogs are on a 6-3 ATS run in the Hawaii Bowl, including four outright wins by double-digit dogs. DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Ratings # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 213 NEVADA UNDER SOUTHERN MISS DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS *BEST BET Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan Don Best Jason Don Best Paul Consensus Nevada* Southern Miss* Nevada Nevada Southern Miss Nevada OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER* UNDER Don BEST CONSENSUS TAKE The Hawaii Bowl has a history of winding up much different than the oddsmakers suggest it will. In fact, the last three double-digit favorites all lost outright, including this same Nevada team two years ago. Well, the shoe is on the other foot now and the Wolf Pack are the sizeable underdog. Does Southern Miss and its sterling 11-2 mark have the want to put pesky Nevada away or this is going to be another in a series of games where the favorite plays disinterested and enjoys itself too much on the island at the holidays? We say there is a good chance of exactly that happening, especially with Nevada having had this experience to learn from in Watch for Nevada s pistol to control the clock and give Southern Miss fits in this one. The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 19

22 The Don Best Weekly Insider INDEPENDENCE BOWL (215) NORTH CAROLINA [SU:7-5 ATS:6-6] VS (216) MISSOURI ( ) [SU:7-5 ATS:6-6] DECEMBER 26, :00 PM on ESPN2 INDEPENDENCE STADIUM (SHREVEPORT, LA) Shreveport, LA welcomes a pair of 7-5 BCS conference teams to its 2011 Independence Bowl, North Carolina out of the ACC, and Missouri, who just spent its last season in Big 12. The teams have not faced one another since 1976, but they are both quite familiar with the privilege of playing in a bowl game. The Tar Heels are playing in their fourth straight postseason game, after going 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS in the prior three. They were just 2-4 in the season s second half. Conversely, Missouri finished strong, winning its final three games. The Tigers are playing in a bowl game for the 7th straight season but are 0-3 ATS in the L3 with one outright win in 08 Alamo Bowl. Strangely, Missouri hasn t faced an ACC opponent since a 96 win at home versus Clemson, UNC is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its L3 versus Big 12 foes. Offensive STATISTICS Defensive Statistics 2011 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTH CAROLINA [4.2] [9.1] [3.1] [6.9] MISSOURI [5.2] [7.9] [3.7] [6.7] NORTH CAROLINA MISSOURI DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU VS DUKE W W O KANSAS W L U at VIRGINIA TECH L W U VS TEXAS TECH W L U at NC STATE L L U VS TEXAS PK W W U VS WAKE FOREST W W O at BAYLOR L L O at CLEMSON L L O at TEXAS A&M W W O VS MIAMI FL L L O VS OKLAHOMA ST L L U VS LOUISVILLE W L U VS IOWA ST W W O at EAST CAROLINA W W U at KANSAS ST L L U at GEORGIA TECH L L O at OKLAHOMA L W O VS VIRGINIA W W U VS W ILLINOIS -32 NL 69-0 W W VS RUTGERS W L U at ARIZONA ST L W O VS JAMES MADISON -18 NL W W VS MIAMI OH W L U This is a great reward for the juniors and seniors at North Carolina after two tumultuous seasons in Chapel Hill. Between last year s suspensions and the firing of coach Butch Davis, Tar Heels players have had to endure. North Carolina s defense was second in the conference to rushing yards permitted (106.2), led by sure-fire NFL prospect DE Quinton Coples. The Tar Heels offense was adequate in finishing 52nd in total offense, tallying 28.2 points per contest. Redshirt freshman TB Giovani Bernard made the running game respectable at yards a game and QB Bryn Renner had the best completion percentage (68.8%) among ACC quarterbacks. Missouri heads to the SEC after this matchup and wants to arrive in style, having lost their last two bowl appearances. Shreveport is a special place for coach Gary Pinkel, as in 2005, the Tigers overcame a 31-3 deficit against South Carolina to win this bowl Since that inconceivable comeback, Missouri is QB James Franklin had his share of shaky moments, but led his squad to three consecutive wins to secure a winning season. Franklin will be the catalyst without RB Henry Josey. The Tigers play an aggressive up-field defense, designed to create bad decisions by opposing quarterbacks. Game Trends NORTH CAROLINA IS ATS(L25G) as Dog Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per point(cs) MISSOURI IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) Against big play passing teams averaging more than 8.3 yards per attempt(cs) MISSOURI IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per carry(l25g) BOWL GAME HISTORY Missouri will be looking to extend a 5-game SU & ATS winning streak by favorites in the Independence Bowl series. Ironically, the last underdog to score an upset in this game was this same Missouri team, who beat South Carolina in the 05 game. Favorites are 7-1 ATS in the L8 as well. The L3 games have gone UNDER the total, including the 09 game which produced 64 points on a total of The other two fell shy of the total by 34 & 19 points. DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Ratings # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 215 NORTH CAROLINA MISSOURI DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS *BEST BET Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan Don Best Jason Don Best Paul Consensus North Carolina Missouri Missouri Missouri* Missouri Missouri OVER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER Don BEST CONSENSUS TAKE In a season of inconsistency for both teams, it only makes sense to back the team that finished the season stronger. In this matchup, that logic favors Missouri, who closed the regular season by winning its last three Big 12 games ever. How about that for bidding adieu? The Tigers also find themselves in the enviable position of being favored in this game, and when you consider the recent history of the Independence Bowl (five straight wins for chalk), that is easily the more desireable side. Missouri has as balanced of an offensive attack as anyone in the country at this point and played very well defensively down the stretch to boot. Don t make the mistake of thinking these teams are even, there is a reason Missouri is favored. Tigers impress and keep inconsistent Tar Heels at bay. 20 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

23 LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL (217) W MICHIGAN [SU:7-5 ATS:8-3] VS (218) PURDUE ( ) [SU:6-6 ATS:5-7] DECEMBER 27, :30 PM on ESPN FORD FIELD (DETROIT, MI) The MAC and Big Ten conferences square off in Detroit s annual bowl game for the first time since 2007, when Purdue beat Central Michigan in a shootout. That was also the last time the Boilermakers played in a postseason game as they will be looking to snap a 4-game bowl ATS losing skid here. Purdue, just 6-6 this season, failed to win back-to-back games on any occasion. In their L5 games versus MAC teams, the Boilermakers are 3-2 SU but just 1-4 ATS. Western Michigan was blasted by Rice in the 08 Texas Bowl and hasn t been back in a postseason game since. The Broncos, who failed to beat a single other bowl team this season, are just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their L8 games versus the Big Ten. Purdue won the last meeting between these teams at home in 02, W MICHIGAN [4.2] [8.0] [5.5] [7.0] PURDUE [4.4] [6.4] [4.4] [7.1] W MICHIGAN purdue DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU VS AKRON W W O at INDIANA W L O at MIAMI OH W W U VS IOWA L L O at TOLEDO L W O VS OHIO ST W W O VS BALL ST W L O at WISCONSIN L L O at E MICHIGAN L L U at MICHIGAN L L U at N ILLINOIS L L O VS ILLINOIS W W U VS BOWLING GREEN W W O at PENN ST L W P at CONNECTICUT W W O VS MINNESOTA W W O at ILLINOIS L W U VS NOTRE DAME L L P VS C MICHIGAN W W O VS SE MISSOURI ST -27 NL 59-0 W W VS NICHOLLS ST -28 NL 38-7 W W at RICE L L U at MICHIGAN NL NL L VS MIDDLE TENN ST W L O If you have not witnessed Western Michigan play, do not miss this opportunity. The Broncos have the best passing duo in the country in QB Alex Carder and WR Jordan White. Carder led the MAC with yards per game; including a league-high 28 TD passes. Western Michigan does have three outstanding receivers; however White is the moneyman, leading the nation with 127 receptions, 1,646 yards and 16 trips to pay dirt. The Broncos had more talent defensively than they showed, but never came together as a unit. They were a MAC-worst 5.5 yards per rush and 11th in the league in rushing defense at per game. Purdue will have one last shot in 2011 to accomplish something they have not all year, win back-to-back games. Off their victory over rival Indiana, the Boilermakers became bowl eligible for the first time since 2007, when they played in the same locale with a different sponsorship group. The Purdue offense was anemic, settling at 79th overall, gaining yards a game. In spite of losing top rusher Ralph Bolden, there was enough depth to still reach yards a contest. Neither Caleb TerBush nor Robert Marve distinguished themselves as quarterbacks and no deep passing game manifested. Game Trends PURDUE IS OVER(L25G) On non-grass field PURDUE IS ATS(L25G) Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(cs) W MICHIGAN IS 7-2 OVER(L10G) Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.35 yards per carry(cs) BOWL GAME HISTORY Formerly known as the Motor City Bowl, MAC teams have lost four straight games in this series that the conference has aligned with. Central Michigan was the last MAC team to win, in 06, incidentally, that was also the last time that a favorite won ATS, with dogs going ATS since. The last Big Ten team to play in this game was Purdue, who won in 07, over CMU, failing to cover an 8-point chalk line. UNDER the total is 8-4 in the L12 games. DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Ratings # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 217 W MICHIGAN WMU PURDUE DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS *BEST BET Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan Don Best Jason Don Best Paul CONSENSUS Purdue* Purdue W Michigan* Purdue* W Michigan Purdue UNDER OVER* OVER OVER OVER OVER Don BEST CONSENSUS TAKE One of the first things you need to look for when analyzing a bowl game with imbalanced conference teams playing one another is whether or not that bigger power school is motivated to be playing there. You can almost always assume the little guy is, but for the big boys, lack of motivation can kill any skill and power advantage they have. In this case, Purdue is hungry, having not played in nor won a bowl game since taking this one in 2007 against Central Michigan. Plus, the Boilermakers had to rally by winning two of their L3 games to get here and can wrap up a winning with a win. If you re looking for any statistical proof that Purdue can get it done here, look no further than the fact that the Broncos yield 216 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per rush. Purdue should be able to pound WMU on the ground and outscore the high flying Broncos. The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com 21

24 BELK BOWL (219) LOUISVILLE [SU:7-5 ATS:8-4] VS (220) NC STATE ( ) [SU:7-5 ATS:5-6-1] DECEMBER 27, :00 PM on ESPN BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM (CHARLOTTE, NC) The Belk Bowl from Charlotte is the first bowl game of the season in which the teams involved have actually played one another in the last five seasons. In the 2007 contest, Louisville won at N.C. State, as a 8.5-point favorite, moving its record to 3-0 all-time versus the Wolfpack. Both teams sport 7-5 records and both played their best football at the end of the regular season. Louisville was 5-1 SU & 7-1 ATS down the stretch, while N.C. State closed the season on a 5-2 SU & ATS run, including wins over three bowl teams. The Cardinals, who are on a 2-0 SU & ATS run in bowl games, boast an incredible 13-1 ATS mark in their L14 games versus ACC foes. The Wolfpack are on a run of 3-1 ATS against the Big East and 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in bowl games. Offensive STATISTICS Defensive Offensive Statistics 2011 SEASON Defensive Statistics PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISVILLE [3.4] [7.3] [3.1] [6.9] NC STATE [3.1] [6.6] [3.8] [7.2] LOUISVILLE nc STATE DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU at SOUTH FLORIDA W W O VS MARYLAND W W O at CONNECTICUT W W O VS CLEMSON W W U VS PITTSBURGH L L U at BOSTON COLLEGE L L U at WEST VIRGINIA W W O VS NORTH CAROLINA W W U VS SYRACUSE W W U at FLORIDA ST L L U VS RUTGERS W W U at VIRGINIA W W U CINCINNATI L W U VS C MICHIGAN W W O at NORTH CAROLINA L W U VS GEORGIA TECH L P O VS MARSHALL L L U at CINCINNATI L L U at KENTUCKY W W P VS S ALABAMA NL W L VS FLORIDA INTL L L U at WAKE FOREST L L O VS MURRAY ST NL 21-9 W L VS LIBERTY NL W L - Louisville started 2-4 and with 10 freshmen starters and it sure felt like another losing campaign. Coach Charley Strong s defense was really playing well, but when Teddy Bridgewater settled in at quarterback, the Cardinals took flight in finish 5-1 and co-champions of the Big East. Once Bridgewater was comfortable, the overall production of the passing game improved. The Louisville running game is way the down list at yards a game, but RB Victor Anderson is the most capable. The Cardinals run defense was ninth in the country (103.5 YPG) and the secondary came around as competent contingent. It s remarkable what coach Tom O Brien does year after year. While he hasn t turned the ACC upset down at N.C. State, O Brien always finds a way to have his team improve as the season closes. After starting 2-3, The Wolfpack needed seven wins to be bowl eligible and accomplished that feat with a rally. After a bumpy start, QB Mike Glennon became steady influence. RB James Washington made a significant impact, doing what his team needed in carrying the rock. The N.C. State defense did not win any awards, but did finish 39th in total defense and the secondary stopped opposing teams drives repeated with 24 interceptions. Game Trends LOUISVILLE IS 19-6 ATS(L25G) Non-conference VS BCS NC STATE IS 12-6 UNDER(L25G) Non-conference games LOUISVILLE IS UNDER(L10G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per point(l50g) BOWL GAME HISTORY This game was known as the Meineke Car Care Bowl, and Big East teams have won three straight in this series, going 2-1 ATS. Underdogs are ATS in that span & ATS since the inaugural game of 02. N.C. State is the only one of these two teams to have played previously in this game, as they beat South Florida, 14-0 in the 05 contest. OVER & UNDER the total have alternated every year since 02, with UNDER the expected result for DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Ratings # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 219 LOUISVILLE NC STATE DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS *BEST BET Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan Don Best Jason Don Best Paul Consensus Louisville* NC State Louisville* Louisville* NC State* Louisville UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER Don BEST CONSENSUS TAKE If you listen closely, you can almost already hear the chants of De-fense from the Louisville faithful as they cheer on their Cardinals in the Belk Bowl. Having allowed just 19.2 PPG this season, Louisville boasted its best defensive numbers since the Orange Bowl winning season of Now clearly the offense doesn t match the firepower of that team, but Charlie Strong s mantra is defense, and if anything is going to get the job done for his team in this game, it s that unit. However, don t overlook the fact that Louisville put up 27.2 PPG in its 5-1 SU & ATS finish. Meanwhile, NC State was held to 14 points or less on four different occasions and only finished on a 5-2 run because it forced 23 turnover in that span. Louisville won t make those kind of mistakes and will control this game with its defense. 22 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

25

26