Ken Knapp et al. 8th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

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1 Ken Knapp et al. 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

2 Reviewed current status and plans for IBTrACS An understanding of the vast uses of best track data A plan for reaching the goal of a singular, uniform, global best track dataset Discussed reanalysis efforts and plans Reviewed and prioritized best-track-related recommendations from previous IWTCs 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

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4 Reanalysis using: current understanding new techniques WMO Incorporate BT datasets into unified database Make more homogeneous Include metadata New working group BT experts define standards Establish reanalysis procedures To create a singular, uniform, global BT data set Operational agencies Continue revising historical BT data Denote how BT data were derived (e.g., wind/pres.) Uncertainties in BT record should be determined and recorded 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

5 BT database of extra-tropical transition Focus on quality parameters Review & assess BT data quality Conduct a survey to construct BT data for user needs Working groups of experts to ensure homogeneity, reliability, consistency within and between basins Online clearinghouse to facilitate access 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

6 Ken Knapp Scott Applequist Howard Diamond Paula Hennon James Kossin Michael Kruk Carl Schreck, III NOAA/NCDC & CICS-NC & ERT 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

7 Introduction IBTrACS and Best Track Data Recent progress and status Users Forming recommendations Discussion 1: Singular, global, uniform BT datset Discussion 2: Reanalysis efforts Discussion 3: Prioritizing previous recommendations Summary 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

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10 Target RSMC Miami RSMC Honolulu JTWC RSMC Tokyo CMA/STI HKO Neumann BoM RSMC La Reunion TCWC Wellington RSMC Nadi RSMC New Delhi Source of Best Tracks Year Paper 1959 (Chan and Shi, 1996) WP X Var. (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1998) Global X X (Lander and Guard, 1998) Global X X 1958 (Emanuel, 2000) NA/WP X X 1945 (Emanuel, 2005) Global X X 1970 (Webster et al., 2005) Global X X X 1960 (Chan, 2006) WP X 1965 (Wu et al., 2006) WP X X X 1986 (Klotzbach, 2006) Global X X X 1970 (Hui et al., 2007) WP X X X 1989 (Knaff and Zehr, 2007) Global X X 1983 (Kossin et al., 2007) Global X X 1969 (Kuleshov et al., 2008) SH X X X 1979 (Lau et al., 2008) NA/WP X X 1945 (Lowry et al., 2008) WP X X X X 1965 (Wang et al., 2008) WP X X IBTrACS Global X X X X X X X X X X X X 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

11 v01r01 10/15/2008 First release v02r01 07/24/2009 New data sources and output formats v03r01 09/01/2010 No more averaging the winds v03r02 09/17/2010 (Late correction from agency required an update) v03r03 07/19/2011 v03r04 10/01/2012 v03r05 10/31/2013 Delayed v03r06 09/01/2014 Current revision includes landfall Knapp et al cited 166 times so far 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

12 International Many nations and agencies working together Best Track Information on tropical cyclones Enormous impact on life and property worldwide Archive One-stop-shop Climate Global distribution Cyclone intensity Temporal variability Stewardship Maintaining data for future generations 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

13 2 nd User Workshop Brought together users and forecast agencies Added lots of pressure data for West Pac ( ) Knapp et al. - Verified pressure by scanning and digitizing lots of old aircraft fixes IBTrACS Climatology Schreck et al. Two climatologies reported based on IBTrACS-WMO (only the WMO agencies) NHC & JTWC Landfall flag based on position IBTrACS included in standard procedures for Region V 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

14 v03r years Sources 17 sources 33,205 individual tracks Result storm tracks Sets IBTrACS-WMO IBTrACS All 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

15 Continued provision of best track data from all available agencies in a timely manner The provision of as much metadata as possible to aid in fielding questions from users is critical and is also much appreciated if possible what CMA did in Ying et al (2012) would be great Consistent reporting formats are critical for IBTrACS to effectively produce annual updates. Feedback from RSMCs and TCWCs on how IBTrACS is helping them and what we can do better. Develop a supplementary Unified Wind Field that is consistent across all RSMCs 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

16 Provide more metadata for users to understand best track data Provide a product that meets most user needs Consider providing access to other tropical datasets Other analyses (objective estimates?) Other data (satellite, oceanic, environmental conditions) 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

17 We view IBTrACS as a being the voice of the user community, while the Centers have a vital concern for the forecasts. At the junction of users and providers That said, we all have a vital role to play with respect to best tracks; and IBTrACS wants to work with all players to be as effective as possible for users and Centers. 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

18 Group conversations since last IWTC 800+ registered users About 15 new users each month User survey IBTrACS workshops (2009 and 2011) Participate on TS list 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

19 I use the data as historical basis to validate the hazard component of typhoon catastrophe model. The different tracks from different agency, provide a rough estimate of the uncertainty, although the different agencies do not bear the same weight creating visualizations so someone might give me a job!!! Master Thesis in Economics Just last week! 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

20 Hsiang & Jina, 2014 in NBER The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones national incomes decline, relative to their pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years rich and poor countries exhibit this response losses magnified in countries with less historical cyclone experience a 90 th percentile event reduces per capita incomes by 7.4% two decades later, effectively undoing 3.7 years of average development 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

21 Energy Reduce risk for production Insurance Hazard analysis Oceanic Hazards, risk to reefs, wave modeling Media books, websites, newspapers, magazines Modeling Verification & evaluation Reanalysis input, validation & comparison Economics impacts of TCs on GDP Coastal Erosion, ecosystem management Case studies (local government, regions) Research in various areas (risk, tropical, ) Climate trends, frequencies, landfall 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

22 They aren t all TC experts They know what they need They need TC data. They need help interpreting it Not going to modify or adjust or change any data. It should be ready out of the box No assembly required 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

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24 Users need one 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

25 Energy Reduce risk for production Insurance Hazard analysis Oceanic Hazards, risk to reefs, wave modeling Media books, websites, newspapers, magazines Modeling Verification & evaluation Reanalysis input, validation & comparison Economics impacts of TCs on GDP Coastal Erosion, ecosystem management Case studies (local government, regions, analogs) Research in various areas (risk, tropical, ) Climate trends, frequencies, landfall 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

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28 Example from National Geographic, July 2013 About 20 s Is the North Atlantic more active or intense than the Western Pacific? No. This is an artifact of using the IBTrACS-WMO to plot storm tracks globally. 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

29 From IWTC VI A goal of this group should be to create a single, uniform global best track data base. GOAL Uniform (inter-consistent) maximum sustained wind reports for all basins from 1980-present 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

30 Is this the right goal? What are the difficulties in reaching this goal? How do we overcome difficulties? How do we ensure progress is made? 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

31 Continue to provide officially-reported wind data In addition, provide a unified 1-minute estimate Dvorak is based on 1-minute winds However, all agencies use Dvorak a bit differently As such, IBTrACS team would like to work with each Center to learn about each Center s intensity estimation procedures (including Dvorak) This would allow consistent global maps to be produced for users This would allow for consistent analyses by a diverse group of people (e.g., scientists, risk analysts, coastal inundation specialists, etc.) across all basins 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

32 Possible Courses of action Status quo Do nothing differently Centralized uniformity Someone estimates a uniform wind speed Multiple approaches possible De-centralized uniformity Agencies estimate a uniform value for each report 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

33 Should this be an option? Pros Easy to implement Cons Confused users Leads to wrong understanding The single most requested parameter Global intensity (wind) data 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

34 Pros No changes in operational practices Adjustments could be coordinated in one location Easy to recalculate with new findings No burden on forecast agencies Facilitate inter-basin comparisons Would require documentation of practices Cons Data may not be considered authoritative since it doesn t originate at agency Educating users about differences between variables 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

35 Pros Authoritative adjustments Facilitate inter-basin comparisons Cons Burden is on every agency to implement Unlikely all agencies would have resources to investigate corrections for historic data Educating users about differences between variables Different approaches could lead to more confusion 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec

36 Beyond wind speed, perhaps most important parameter to estimate storm impacts Reunion (WMO format) Threshold: 30 kt and 50 kt wind radii. By quadrant, but a mean could be estimated from the 4 values. BoM Threshold: hurricane force winds Mean radius ATCF (NAtl and EPac) and JTWC (rest of world) Threshold: 34, 50, 63 and 100 knots. by quadrant JMA Threshold: 30 and 50 kt longer and shorter radius HURDAT2 (NHC) Threshold: 34, 50 and 64 knots. By Quadrant 8 th IWTC, Jeju, Korea 4 Dec