Jennifer L. Bergener, Managing Director. for the Fourth Quarter of Federal Fiscal Year

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1 January 30, 2017 To: From: Subject: Members of the Board of Directors Jennifer L. Bergener, Managing Director Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor Trends for the Fourth Quarter of Federal Fiscal Year Overview A report on ridership, revenue, and on-time performance trends for passenger rail services on the Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo rail corridor, including the Pacific Surfliner, Metrolink, and COASTER, covering the fourth quarter of federal fiscal year is presented for consideration. Recommendation Receive and file as an information item. Background The 351-mile Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo (LOSSAN) rail corridor travels through a six-county coastal region in Southern California and is the busiest state-supported intercity passenger rail corridor in the United States. The LOSSAN rail corridor includes 41 stations and more than 150 daily passenger trains, with an annual ridership of more than 2.9 million on Pacific Surfliner intercity trains and 4.5 million on Metrolink and COASTER commuter trains (Attachment A). Discussion This report provides an update on the performance of the passenger rail services on the LOSSAN rail corridor by presenting the current trends of the service in three specific areas: usage (ridership and passenger miles), efficiency (revenue and farebox recovery), and quality (on-time performance and customer satisfaction). The report includes the Pacific Surfliner intercity passenger rail service, as well as commuter rail service on Metrolink s Ventura County Line (VCL) and Orange County Line (OCL), and the North County Transit District s COASTER system. Amtrak national data is included for comparative purposes. The reporting Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor Agency 550 South Main Street / P.O. Box / Orange / California / (714)

2 Page 2 period is the fourth quarter of federal fiscal year (FFY) , covering the months of July, August, and September Usage For the fourth quarter of FFY , total LOSSAN rail corridor ridership on the three services was 2,041,367, a 4.6 percent decrease compared to the same period the previous year. A 24 month ridership chart for the corridor can be found in Figure 1.1. In Figure 1.1, 24 months of ridership data is included to provide a more accurate indicator of the overall growth along the corridor. Due to the seasonal variances, a complete ridership trend is difficult to discern from a single 12 month period. Including 24 months of data accounts for the seasonal variation and provides sufficient information to allow for the development of a linear trendline for each service. In addition to this overall corridor data, details on the performance of each service are provided below. Pacific Surfliner Figure 1.1 Despite the overall LOSSAN rail corridor ridership decrease, Pacific Surfliner (San Luis Obispo to San Diego) intercity rail ridership increased during the fourth quarter of FFY by 4.1 percent when compared to the same period last year. This continues the year-over-year trend of ridership increase as demonstrated in Figure 1.2. Pacific Surfliner ridership in this report includes

3 Page 3 Metrolink and COASTER pass holders utilizing the Rail 2 Rail (R2R) Program, which allows Metrolink monthly pass holders and COASTER passengers to ride Pacific Surfliner trains within the stations identified on the valid fare media, subject to certain restrictions. At the conclusion of the fourth quarter, annual ridership for the Pacific Surfliner for FFY totaled 2,927,960, which is a 3.6 percent increase over FFY , and for the second year in a row, the largest annual ridership in the history of the service! Metrolink Figure 1.2 Overall corridor ridership continues to be significantly impacted by the current Metrolink ridership trends on both the VCL and the OCL as demonstrated in Figure 1.3. The VCL, which serves East Ventura to Los Angeles, had a 7.5 percent ridership decrease in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. The OCL, which serves Los Angeles to Oceanside, similarly saw a 6.4 percent decrease in ridership over the same report period in the prior year. Figure 1.3 Overall system ridership for Metrolink was down by 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of FFY when compared to the same period in FFY This also continues the year over year trend of ridership decreases. This same trend in ridership decrease is seen in the average daily R2R program riders. Metrolink pass holders riding Pacific Surfliner trains, utilizing R2R, averaged 1,185 per weekday for the fourth quarter of FFY , a decrease of 27.1 percent compared to the same period last year.

4 Page 4 Over the past 24 months, the average daily Metrolink R2R ridership has seen a steady decline. Prior analysis presented in this report has indicated that usage of commuter rail service is heavily impacted by fuel prices, with ridership trends roughly following the same trend as the statewide average. The continuing low fuel costs are reflected in the ongoing decline in commuter rail ridership, and thus the lower number of Metrolink passengers utilizing the Pacific Surfliner through the R2R program. COASTER COASTER service (serving Oceanside to San Diego) ridership saw a decrease of 8.7 percent during the fourth quarter of FFY , when compared to the same period the prior year as shown in Figure 1.4. The fourth quarter of Figure 1.4 FFY , saw an average of 394 total COASTER pass holders per day on Pacific Surfliner trains, utilizing the R2R program. This was a decrease of 26 percent when compared to last year. The R2R program is blacked out for COASTER passengers during the Del Mar racing season, and that may account for some of the loss in R2R ridership. Amtrak System Figure 1.5 Amtrak service nationwide had a cumulative ridership increase of 2.9 percent for the fourth quarter of FFY compared with the prior year. Nationwide system ridership continues the year over year increase trend as demonstrated in Figure 1.5. The Pacific Surfliner has consistently performed

5 Page 5 as one of the best state supported corridors in the national network, with growth that surpasses the national average. Amtrak s Coast Starlight (Seattle to Los Angeles) saw ridership decrease by 5.4 percent compared with the same period last year. The Capitol Corridor (Auburn/Sacramento to Oakland and San Jose) and the San Joaquin (Sacramento/Oakland to Bakersfield) are the other two California intercity passenger rail services operated by Amtrak, and although serving significantly different markets, do provide a comparison to the Pacific Surfliner service. Ridership on the Capitol Corridor increased by 5.4 percent and San Joaquin ridership decreased by 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. Passenger Miles A passenger mile is defined as one passenger traveling one mile. As an example, 10 passengers, each traveling 100 miles, would then generate 1,000 passenger miles. This metric depicts the growth in passenger usage and distance traveled. The Pacific Surfliner generated over 72 million passenger miles during the fourth quarter of FFY , which is a 3.7 percent increase compared to the same period in the prior year. Factoring in the average pounds of CO 2 emissions per passenger mile in a private automobile versus riding on passenger rail, those 72 million passenger miles resulted in a reduction of over 52 million pounds of greenhouse gases. That is the CO 2 emission equivalent to 312 tanker trucks full of gasoline. Efficiency Revenue Pacific Surfliner ticket revenue increased by 4.4 percent for the fourth quarter of FFY when compared with the same period in the prior year. This continues the trend of year over year increase as shown in Figure 1.6. Figure 1.6 For the Capitol Corridor, total revenue increased by 6.2 percent for the fourth

6 Page 6 quarter, whereas the San Joaquin corridor saw a decrease of 4.9 percent, and the Coast Starlight decreased by 3.8 percent. As indicated previously, lower fuel prices continue to impact certain markets across the nation, which may be responsible for the lower revenue on some corridors. Farebox Recovery The Pacific Surfliner is legislatively required to achieve a minimum of 55 percent farebox recovery. For FFY , which is the most recent audited data available, the Pacific Surfliner reported a 75.2 percent farebox recovery rate, which is an increase of nearly 7 percent over the prior year. As a performance measure, farebox recovery is normally calculated on an annual basis. Expenses throughout the year are not linear, and can cause significant fluctuations in the farebox recovery ratio from quarter to quarter. That being said, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Division of Rail and Mass Transportation (DRMT) reports quarterly to the California Transportation Commission (CTC) on all state-supported corridors via the California Department of Transportation s Intercity Passenger Rail Operations Report. Included in this report is a quarterly calculation of the farebox recovery ratio. On December 7, 2016, Caltrans DRMT reported to the CTC on the fourth quarter of FFY (first quarter of state fiscal year ) and indicated the Pacific Surfliner realized a 91.4 percent farebox ratio. This quarter when taken in isolation reflects a significant increase over the prior year; however it does not reflect an accurate indicator of overall performance. Staff will continue to monitor the quarterly CTC reports ahead of the audited data to determine if the higher than anticipated farebox recovery ratio continues. Quality On-Time Performance The methodologies for calculating on-time performance (OTP) vary significantly between intercity and commuter rail services. Commuter trains are considered late if trains arrive six or more minutes late to the terminal location. Pacific Surfliner trains operating between the cities of Goleta and San Diego are considered late if trains arrive 10 or more minutes after scheduled arrival times, and 20 minutes or more for trains operating between the cities of San Luis Obispo and San Diego. There also are different practices as to whether annulled trains are included in OTP calculations. In the fourth quarter of FFY , average endpoint Pacific Surfliner OTP was 77.8 percent, whereas all-station OTP, which is calculated by combining and averaging OTP at each station, averaged 86.9 percent. By comparison, the

7 Page 7 endpoint OTP on the Capitol Corridor averaged 93.6 percent, and the San Joaquin Corridor averaged 83 percent during the report period. Amtrak system wide averaged 76.5 percent for the fourth quarter. The 12-month on-time performance trend for the Pacific Surfliner can be seen in Figure 1.7. Special attention is drawn to the implementation of the robust timetable in June Although OTP continues to be an area of concern, an upward trend can be seen in the performance since the implementation of the robust timetable. Analysis is ongoing to determine how the implementation of the robust timetable has impacted the OTP of the service and overall performance of the corridor. The LOSSAN Rail Corridor Agency (Agency) continues to work collaboratively with Amtrak to better identify the root causes of delays as well as with the host railroads to establish more realistic operating parameters. Customer Satisfaction Figure 1.7 Amtrak reports an Electronic Customer Service Index (ecsi) score monthly for all routes, in which a very satisfied percentage is calculated out of 100 passengers via surveying. The Pacific Surfliner scored an average of 88 percent, which remained consistent with the ecsi score reported for the prior quarter. By comparison, the Amtrak nationwide average ecsi score was 86 for the same reporting period.

8 Page 8 Most passenger issues are consistently related to lack of reliability or OTP. However, this area specifically saw significant improvement improving by 3 points over the prior quarter. Additional Performance Indicators Food and Beverage Sales The LOSSAN Agency s focus on improving service quality and the customer experience has prompted additional attention to the food and beverage selections offered in the Pacific Surfliner Café cars. The most recent menu refresh occurred in June Since that time, LOSSAN Agency staff has closely monitored food and beverage sales in an effort to gauge the success of these adjustments. For the fourth quarter of FFY , food and beverage sales increased 26.8 percent over the previous quarter. Menu items that were given specific attention as part of the menu refresh implemented in June 2016 were the inclusion of more freshly prepared food options and additional locally sourced craft beer options. Details on the performance of each specific sales category are included in Figure 1.8. Amtrak Thruway Bus Service A request was made by the LOSSAN Technical Advisory Committee to provide additional analysis and trends on Amtrak s Thruway Bus ridership. The detailed ridership data associated with this service is not currently supplied by Amtrak. However, LOSSAN Agency staff is working with Amtrak to incorporate this data into the standard monthly ridership reports. Additionally, efforts are underway to access historical data to allow for trends analysis. This information will be updated as data becomes available. Additional Metrics Sales Category Quarter 3 FFY Quarter 4 FFY Increase Baked Goods $78,153 $91, % Beer $283,765 $397, % Beverages $272,146 $329, % Dairy Products $5,154 $4, % Fresh Prepared Foods $191,234 $226, % Liquor $83,584 $137, % Miscellaneous Merchandise $5,715 $9, % Packaged Snack Foods $565,985 $686, % Salads $17,107 $28, % Wine $325,301 $407, % $1,828,143 $2,318, % Figure 1.8 A summary table of the ridership, revenue, and OTP for the LOSSAN rail corridor can be found in Attachment B. There are additional performance indicators that,

9 Page 9 while not necessarily beneficial in trend analysis, are helpful in calculating the value and efficiency of the service and its associated facilities. These indicators, such as boardings/alightings by station and ridership/revenue by station pair, are included in Attachment C. Summary This report provides an update of trends for the usage, efficiency, and quality of the passenger rail services on the Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo rail corridor, including the Pacific Surfliner, Metrolink, and COASTER for the fourth quarter of federal fiscal year During the fourth quarter, total Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo rail corridor ridership decreased by 4.6 percent compared to the same period last year; however, ridership and revenue for the Pacific Surfliner continued a growth trend, increasing ridership by 4.1 percent, and revenue by 4.4 percent, when compared to the same period last year.

10 Page 10 Attachments A. Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor Map B. Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor Performance Summary, Fourth Quarter Federal Fiscal Year C. Los Angeles San Diego San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor Additional Performance Indicators Prepared by: Roger M. Lopez Principal Transportation Analyst (714)

11 ATTACHMENT A Los Angeles- San Diego -San Luis Obispo Rail Corridor Map LOSSAN ~Moc Nt Southern Gal ifornia Passenger Rail Pa Hngar Rail Statlan Q) Amtrak Pacllc SUrftlner 0 Metrcllnk 0 COASTER Pa... ngar Ralllemc:e - Amtrak Pac:lk: Surftlner Metrclink Venhn CCJunty Una - MetrclinkAnllllape Yillllly u.. - Metrclink San Bemardno Une - Metrclink Rivenlidll Lr. - Metrclink 91 Lil'llll - Metrclink Orange Ccunty Ul'llll - Metrcllnklnlllnd Elllll, Ccurty U11111 =~~~ - COASTER ~ N I ~~~~~~~M~-~ =-- ::: j o L ~::::=--II:::::::::::::JI- MIIee

12 Performance Summary Fourth Quarter Federal Fiscal Year Service Ridership (total) Ridership - Change from Previous Year Revenue (total) Revenue - Change from Previous Year Endpoint OTP (3 mo. avg) Pacific Surfliner 829, % $ 21,148, % 77.8% Metrolink Ventura County Line Metrolink Orange County Line 218, % % 562, % % COASTER 431, % % LOSSAN Total/Average 2,041, % $ 21,148, % 89.6% Amtrak Nationwide 8,257, % $ 571,774, % 76.5% Capitol Corridor 395, % $ 7,521, % 93.6% San Joaquin 290, % $ 9,150, % 83.0% Coast Starlight 130, % $ 12,431, % 65.3%

13 Additional Performance Indicators Station Pair Ridership/Revenue - Federal Fiscal Year Total Station Pair by Ridership Ridership Rank Station Pair by Revenue Revenue Los Angeles - San Diego 280,196 1 Los Angeles - San Diego $10,704,927 Los Angeles - Solana Beach 133,494 2 Los Angeles - Solana Beach $4,266,179 Los Angeles - Oceanside 116,645 3 Los Angeles - Old Town San Diego $3,809,038 Los Angeles - Old Town San Diego 99,160 4 Los Angeles - Oceanside $3,125,514 Irvine - San Diego 79,664 5 Los Angeles - Santa Barbara $2,041,940 Irvine - Los Angeles 78,205 6 Irvine - San Diego $1,882,462 Los Angeles - Santa Barbara 72,307 7 Anaheim - San Diego $1,714,989 Irvine - Solana Beach 70,658 8 Fullerton - San Diego $1,466,703 Fullerton - Los Angeles 68,409 9 Irvine - Los Angeles $1,332,988 Anaheim - San Diego 60, Irvine - Solana Beach $1,168,637 Anaheim - Los Angeles 57, San Diego - San Juan Capistrano $994,688 Fullerton - San Diego 51, San Diego - Santa Barbara $969,079 San Diego - San Juan Capistrano 48, San Diego - Santa Ana $857,107 Los Angeles - San Juan Capistrano 40, Los Angeles - San Juan Capistrano $795,057 Los Angeles - Santa Ana 38, Anaheim - Los Angeles $771,036 Irving - Old Town San Diego 32, Fullerton - Los Angeles $765,371 San Diego - Santa Ana 32, Irving - Old Town San Diego $764,423 Anaheim - Solana Beach 29, Anaheim - Old Town San Diego $697,088 Fullerton - Solana Beach 25, Los Angeles - San Luis Obispo $656,318 Anaheim - Old Town San Diego 24, Anaheim - Solana Beach $608,863 San Diego - Santa Barbara 23, Los Angeles - Santa Ana $598,552 Fullerton - Old Town San Diego 19, Fullerton - Old Town San Diego $583,643 Goleta - Los Angeles 16, Fullerton - Solana Beach $579,028 Los Angeles - San Luis Obispo 16, Goleta - Los Angeles $550,100 Oceanside - Santa Barbara 14, Oceanside - Santa Barbara $543,707 All other markets 1,392,803 All other markets $30,772,828 2,924,117 $73,020,267 Note : due to forced ticket lifts total station pair data may vary slightly from total annual ridership.

14 Additional Performance Indicators Boardings/Alightings by Station - Federal Fiscal Year Total Oct - Sept FFY Oct - Sept FY % Change Code Station Name Total Riders Total Riders Total LAX Los Angeles, CA 1,359,731 1,303, SAN San Diego, CA 775, , IRV Irvine, CA 450, , OSD Oceanside, CA 416, , SOL Solana Beach, CA 396, , FUL Fullerton, CA 360, , SBA Santa Barbara, CA 297, , ANA Anaheim, CA 282, , OLT San Diego, CA - Old Town 267, , SNC San Juan Capistrano, CA 229, , SNA Santa Ana, CA 191, , OXN Oxnard, CA 82,868 86, GTA Goleta, CA 76,286 75, VNC Van Nuys, CA 73,756 73, CWT Chatsworth, CA 71,133 72, SLO San Luis Obispo, CA 69,799 71, VEC Ventura, CA 65,328 61, BUR Burbank, CA 63,970 63, GDL Glendale, CA 52,395 51, CML Camarillo, CA 52,310 51, SIM Simi Valley, CA 47,179 45, CPN Carpinteria, CA 30,762 29, MPK Moorpark, CA 21,726 20, SRB San Diego, CA - SV 20,720 16, GVB Grover Beach, CA 18,987 19, SNP San Clemente, CA - Pier 15,396 13, CBV Carlsbad, CA - Village 14,843 13, ENC Encinitas, CA 12,975 11, GUA Guadalupe, CA 12,227 12, POI Carlsbad, CA - Poinsettia 10,556 9, LPS Surf, CA 7,921 8,