# IHSDM- HSM Predictive Methods. Slide 1

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1 IHSDM- HSM Predictive Methods Slide 1

2 Presentation Outline IHSDM Overview Relationship between HSM and IHSDM Crash Prediction Models and Data Needs IHSDM HSM Predictive Method 2011 Release Preview Questions / Discussion Slide 2

3 What is IHSDM? A product of FHWA s Safety Research and Development Program A suite of software tools that support project-level geometric design decisions by providing quantitative information on the expected safety and operational performance Slide 3

4 What Benefits does IHSDM Provide? IHSDM results help project developers make design decisions that improve the expected safety performance of designs IHSDM helps project planners, designers, and reviewers justify and defend geometric design decisions Slide 4

5 Evaluation Modules Crash Prediction Policy Review Design Consistency Intersection Review Traffic Analysis Driver/Vehicle Slide 5

6 Crash Prediction Module Scope Estimates expected crash frequency (i.e., Substantive Safety) based upon roadway geometry and traffic volumes Slide 6

7 Relationship between IHSDM and the HSM A. Introduction and Fundamentals B. Roadway Safety Management Process C. Predictive Method (IHSDM CPM) Chapter 10: Rural, Two-Lane Roads Chapter 11: Rural, Multilane Highways Chapter 12: Urban & Suburban Arterials D. Crash Modification Factors Slide 7

8 Relationship between IHSDM and the HSM FHWA intends IHSDM CPM to be a faithful implementation of HSM Part C methodology FHWA implemented all models based on HSM 1st Edition FHWA implemented Calibration Utility based on HSM 1 st Edition (to be released in Sept.,2011) Slide 8

9 Crash Prediction Models Highway Segments 2R MR U/SA 2-lane undivided (2U) 2-lane divided (2D) 3-lane w/twltl (3T) 4-lane undivided (4U) 4-lane divided (4D) 5-lane arterial w/twltl (5T) Slide 9

10 Crash Prediction Models Intersections 2R MR U/SA 3-leg STOP-control on minor 3-leg Signalized 4-leg STOP-control on minor 4-leg Signalized Slide 10

11 CPM Model Components Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) Empirical Bayes (using crash history data) Calibration Factors and/or Site Data Enter via IHSDM Administration Tool Slide 11

12 CPM Data Needs Vary by highway type: 2-lane Rural Highways (2R) Multilane Rural Highways (MR) Urban/Suburban Arterials (U/SA) Highway Segment Data Intersection Data Crash Data (optional) Slide 12

13 CPM Data Needs - Segments ALIGNMENTS 2R MR U/SA Horizontal Complete Length (curves not needed) Vertical - Grades (VC s not needed) -Tangent Slide 13

14 CPM Data Needs - Segments GENERAL 2R MR U/SA Design Speed AADT Area Type Speed Designation Functional Class Slide 14

15 CPM Data Needs - Segments CROSS-SECTION 2R MR U/SA Cross Slope (Superelevation) Through Lane Auxiliary Lanes Turn lanes (2R, MR, U/SA) Passing/climbing lanes (2R) Shoulders TWLTL Median Slide 15

16 CPM Data Needs - Segments ROADSIDE 2R MR U/SA Driveway Density Driveway Locations and Types Roadside Hazard Rating Side Slopes On-Street Parking Roadside Fixed Object Density Slide 16

17 CPM Data Needs - Segments OTHER 2R MR U/SA Lighting Automated Speed Enforcement Centerline Rumble Strip Slide 17

18 CPM Data Needs - Intersections 2R MR U/SA Number of legs AADT s for Maj/Min Roads Type of traffic control Approach leg type (major/minor) Skew angle Approaches with exclusive left/right turn lanes Lighting Slide 18

19 CPM Data Needs - Intersections 2R MR U/SA RTOR (approaches prohibited) Left-Turn Signal Phasing Presence of Red Light Camera Pedestrian Volume (all legs) Max. Lanes Crossed by Peds Bus Stops w/in 1000 School w/in 1000 Alcohol Establishments (1000 ) Slide 19

20 CPM Data Needs - Crash History CRASH HISTORY DATA (Optional) 2R MR U/SA Segment-related Crashes Intersection-related Crashes Slide 20

21 IHSDM Demonstration IHSDM HSM Predictive Method 2010 Release (version 6.0.0; July 15, 2010) IHSDM HSM Predictive Method 2011 Release (version 7.0.0; Sept., 2010) Slide 21

22 Slide 22 Mainline: 2-lane undivided rural arterial 2.7 mi long 50 mph design speed AADT = 7000 vpd in ft wide lanes No shoulders 2-lane rural highway: AADT = 4500 in leg signalized intersection: Skew = 37 deg No turn lanes

23 Slide 23 Questions / Discussion

24 Slide 24

25 Slide 25

26 Slide 26

27 Slide 27 Highway Editor Horizontal Alignment Data

28 Slide 28 Highway Editor Sample Curve Data

29 Slide 29 Evaluation Report (Output) Highway Segmentation

30 Slide 30

31 Expected Crash Frequencies and Rates (Summary) Slide 31

32 Expected Crash Frequencies & Rates by Highway Segment Slide 32

33 Expected Crash Frequencies & Rates by Horizontal Design Element Slide 33

34 Expected Crash Type Distribution Slide 34

35 IHSDM Administration Tool CPM Calibration Data Sets Calibration Factors Calibration Site Data (HSM Calibration Process) CPM Distribution Data Sets Collision Type Distributions Crash Severity Distributions CPM Model Data Sets Includes SPF coefficients Slide 35

36 Calibration Factor Slide 36

37 Slide 37 Calibration Site Data

38 Slide 38 Calibration Site Data

39 Slide 39 Calibration Site Data

40 IHSDM 2011 Release (sept.,2011) May be downloaded free-of-charge at: Technical support: Phone: (202) IHSDM Training: FHWA-NHI in NHI catalog at (2-day, on-site course) Instructor-led, web-based course under development Slide 40

41 Questions / Discussion For additional information: IHSDM Technical Support: (202) To download IHSDM software: Shyuan-Ren (Clayton) Chen (202) Slide 41

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