Connecting local enterprises to Global Market: Vietnam. Nguyen Tu Anh At Geneva, 8 October 2014
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1 Connecting local enterprises to Global Market: Vietnam Nguyen Tu Anh At Geneva, 8 October 2014
2 Outline The openness of the economy Where to connect The dominant player in connecting Recent moves Policy instruments
3 The openness of Vietnam economy Share of exports and imports to GDP Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
4 Share of export markets China Japan USA EU ASEAN East Asia (excl. Japan) Middle East Africa South America Other
5 Capacity of native firms domestic demand for domestic products/domestic demand
6 Share of import market China Japan USA EU ASEAN East Asia (excl. Japan) Middle East Africa South America Other
7 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Native firms looses momentum: growth rate of export Native firm export non-oil FIEs Export
8 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Native firms loose momentum Share of exports: native and FIEs Native firms FIE non-oil
9 Investment share in GDP /e State Non-state FIEs Total
10 Issues Local firms are well connected to global markets in terms of exports and imports However, the foreign invested firms surpassed native firms in exports and imports Range of export products by native firms is narrow: garment, footwear, Seafood, wood, rice and other agricultural products Other high tech field dominated by FIEs: electronics, mobile phone, transport equipment,
11 Consequences Low local contents in exports China and Thailand: 50-60% Vietnam 27.8% Low Value added Garment 35-40% Footwear 30% Electronic products 30% but mostly supplied bu FIEs in Vietnam Weak linkage between native enterprises and FIEs
12 Cause: Supporting industries? Unclear policy to promote supporting industries missing economy of scale Lack of targeted policy to connect local enterprises with FIEs in Vietnam Models of vertical and horizontal linkages have not been formed to improve the competitiveness of national products
13 Recent moves A trend of FIEs moving out of China to ASEAN countries including Vietnam Some very high-tech TNCs are moving their factories from abroad to Vietnam: Intel, Nokia (Microsoft), Samsung, LG, Foxxcon, Huge projects oil refinery factories are building: Dung Quất (3 bil $, Russia and VN), Nghi Sơn (9 bil. $ Kuwait, Japan and VN), Long Sơn (4.5 bil.$), Nhơn Hội (22 bil. $, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Thailand), Vũng Rô (3.18 bil, UK) New cooperation protocols TPP Vietnam - EU FTA Vietnam Russia- Belarus
14 Recent moves Three breakthroughs Human capital; institutions; infrastructure Prioritizing on TNC in attracting FDI Supporting industry Establish a fund for the development of industry Amended the policy for priority development of supporting industry Provinces are now more concerned on development of SI FIEs, especially TNCs are now looking for local suppliers for their production chain Native firms are more active to be suppliers for TNC
15 Policy instruments Macroeconomic stability, sound competition environments, three bottle-necks Development industrial clusters Attracting high-tech TNCs TPP Supporting firms in adapting new technology to meet FIEs requirements
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