Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Valencia, California

Transcription

1 Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Valencia, California Student Population Projections Report (By Residence) Fall (Based on Fall 2013 Data) March 14, 2014 Prepared by Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc Pierce Street, Suite 200 Riverside, California Phone: (951) Fax: (951)

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Executive Summary Section One: Section Two: Methodology Sources of Data... 1 Seven Year Projection Methodology... 5 Applying the Variables to Generate the Projections Planned Residential Development Planned Residential Development Map: Future Development in District Residential Development Summary Report Planned Residential Development List Section Three: Section Four: Section Five: Section Six: Section Seven: Attendance Matrices Attendance Matrices Middle School (7 th -8 th ) Attendance Matrix (new boundaries) High School (9 th -10 th grade) Attendance Matrix (new boundaries) High School (11 th -12 th ) Attendance Matrix (old boundaries) District-Wide Student Projections Seven Year Projection Summaries District-Wide Student Projection Summary Fall 2013-Fall 2020 Chart: Historical K-6, 7-8 and 9-12 Enrollment Chart: Historical and Projection Hart 7-12 Students District-Wide Student Projection Trends Middle School Attendance Area Projections Middle School (7-8) Attendance Area Trends Table: Middle School (7-8) Projections by Attendance Area Individual Middle School Attendance Area Analysis Middle School (7-8) Conclusions High School Attendance Area Projections High School (9-12) Attendance Area Trends Table: District 7-12 Transition Plan for New Attendance Boundaries Table: District Castaic Area 9-12 Transition Plan Transition Projections for the High School Attendance Areas Individual High School Attendance Area Analysis High School (9-12) Conclusions Opportunity for Learning (OFL) Students The Fall 2013 Opportunity for Learning Students March 14, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS

3 List of Individual Figures and Inserts Table 1 Student Accounting Summaries (Fall 2013) Table 2 Birth Factors by Feeder District Boundaries... 6 Map 1 Zip Codes Corresponding to the Feeder Districts... 7 Table 3 Mobility Factors... 9 Table 4 Student Yield Factors Chart 1 Projections by Residence Flowchart Map 2 Active Residential Development Projects Over the Next 7 Years Residential Development Summary Table (Fall 2013 Fall 2020) Planned Residential Development List Junior High School (7-8) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix High School (9 th - 10 th grade only) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix (new boundaries) High School (11 th -12 th ) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix (old boundaries) District-wide Projection Summary (Fall 2013 Fall 2020) Chart 2 Historical K-6, 7-8 and 9-12 Enrollment Chart 3 Historical and Projected 7-12 Enrollment Table 5 Middle School - Current and Projected Counts by Attendance Area Map of the Current Middle School (7-8) Attendance Areas with Various Projection Intervals (Using Projections by "Residence") Table 6 Transition Plan for the New 7-12 Boundaries Table 7 High School Assigned for the 9-12 Grade Castaic Area Students Map of the New High School (9-12) Attendance Areas with Various Projection Intervals (Using Projections by "Residence") Transition Projections for the High School Attendance Areas Table 8 Opportunity for Learning 7-12 Student Breakdown APPENDICES Appendix A: Appendix B: Appendix C: Study Area Projections School Codes Table: Elementary School Attendance Areas and Their Study Areas.. 50 Map: Study Area Map Table: HS School Attendance Areas and Their Study Areas With Current ( Old ) JHS & HS Boundaries Map: Hart District Map with Current ( Old ) HS Boundaries Table: JHS & HS School Attendance Areas and Their Study Areas With New JHS & HS Boundaries Map: Hart District Map with New JHS & HS Boundaries Study Area Resident Projections (double-sided) Attendance Area Projections (Based on Both Old and New Boundaries) Junior High School Projections by Residence High School Projections by Residence, Based on Old Boundaries High School Projections by Residence Based on New Boundaries Student Yield Factors and Attendance Area Demographic Studies Student Yield Factor Worksheet *Housing Profile (District-wide) *Demographic and Income Profile Report (District-wide) *The Third Party Demographic Reports are prepared using ESRI s Community Analyst Online (CAO). Reports are created by overlaying the William S. Hart Union High School District boundary onto the ESRI CAO data These reports are for informational purposes only; DDP is not responsible for the accuracy of the data. March 14, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS

4 INTRODUCTION The William S. Hart Union High School District (the District/the Hart High School District) has contracted with Davis Demographics & Planning (DDP) to update a demographic study that forecasts future student counts over the next seven years. The reasons for conducting this study include tracking the following issues: enrollment patterns, residential development activity, an evaluation of future site requirements, and the impact of recent attendance boundary changes. DDP has contacted, acquired and compiled the most current (representing late September/early October 2013) student data for the four (4) elementary school districts in the Hart High School District jurisdiction: Castaic Union School District (K-8), Newhall School District (K-6), Saugus School District (K-6), and the Sulphur Springs School District (K-6) as well as all of the 7-12 students attending the Hart High School District. [Please see Appendix A, page 49 for a listing of all elementary, intermediate and high schools in existence at the time of this report.] The main purpose of including the elementary student data is to keep track of the incoming students as they pass on through the grades over the next seven years. In addition to the student data, DDP has updated its database of planned housing information to reflect the most current development trends in the Santa Clarita Valley. The purpose of this report is to identify and inform the District of the trends occurring in the community; how these trends may affect future student population; and to assist in illustrating facility adjustments that may be necessary to accommodate the potential student population shifts. The District can then use this information to better plan for the need, location and timing of facility or boundary adjustments. From , the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District opened two new middle schools (Rio Norte and Rancho Pico) and two new high schools (Golden Valley and West Ranch). The District now hopes to open its first high school in the Castaic area in time for the Fall 2015 school year. The School Board for the Hart District recently approved new attendance boundaries that take effect starting Fall 2010 beginning with 7 th grade and then adding a school grade each year until all six grades (7 th -12 th ) and will be in full effect by Fall The District s middle schools fully adopted the new boundaries in Fall 2011 and they will finally reach the high schools starting for 9 th grade in In addition, starting in Fall 2010, the Hart District will now house all incoming 9 th grade students from the Castaic area at Valencia HS until the new school is built in the Castaic area (at this point it is anticipated to open by Fall 2017 as 9 th grade only to start, then add grades for the next three). The District asked DDP to generate a separate set of projections to help them anticipate this transition period for the implementation of these new boundaries (over the next two years) and the housing of the Castaic area high school students (over the next 3-6 years). Data pertinent to the transition period for these new boundaries are included in this study. The Sources of Data section details where the two sources of data, geographic and nongeographic, are collected and how each data item is used in the seven-year student population projection model. The Seven Year Projection Methodology section discusses in detail how the factors used in the study were calculated and why they were used. These factors include: the calculation of incoming kindergarten classes, additional students from new housing (referred to as student yield), the effects of student mobility, and a detailed review of planned residential development within the District. March 14, 2014 INTRODUCTION

5 The Student Resident Projection Summary sections are a review of Fall 2013 s student resident projection results. Included in these sections are a district-wide student population projection summary and a projected resident student population summary for each existing attendance area and study area. While reading this report, it is important to remember that this is a snapshot of current and potential student population based upon data gathered in Fall Population demographics change, development plans change, funding opportunities can change, District priorities can change, and therefore, new projections and adjustments to the overall Master Plan will continue to be necessary in the future. March 14, 2014 INTRODUCTION

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The following is a summary of information derived from DDP's Fall 2013 projections and come directly from the analysis segments of the report, Sections Four through Six. As of Fall 2013 the Hart District s 7-8 population stood at 6,862 students, about 30 more than it had at the same time in 2012 (6,831 in 2012, 6,858 in 2011, 6,961 in 2010, 7, students in 2009 and 7,321 in 2008). There are six Hart District junior high schools which averages out to 1, students per site. The projections in this report have the District s 7-8 population declining for the next two years (6,625 by 2015) as smaller grade classes enter from the elementary schools. From 2016 to 2020 the middle school grades then incrementally increase as more new residential development kicks in. By Fall 2020, Hart s middle school population may once again be approaching 7, students. Focusing on only the 9-12 student counts, the Hart District began the Fall 2010 school year with 15,952 high school students living within its boundary and attending one of its schools. This marked the first decline in the District s high schools over the last two decades. In Fall 2011, the 9-12 student population rebounded slightly, rising up nearly 100 more students to reach a new high of 16,051, but in 2012 that figure dropped back down to 15,857 resident 9-12 students. In 2013, the 9-12 resident population dropped once again, by 106 students, to 15,751. It appears that the District s 9-12 student population might have reached its peak in Fall 2009 with a total count of 16,143 resident 9-12 students. Larger incoming 9 th grade class sizes coupled with the increase of students from new housing had been the main reasons for the growth that the Hart District had experienced at the high school level over the past twenty years. The downturn in the new housing construction about 6-7 years ago has finally started to reach the high school grades in recent years. Middle School (7-8) Conclusions Clearly, the Hart District accomplished what it set out to do when it readjusted its middle school boundaries in With the advent of the boundary changes, which took full effect in the middle schools starting in 2011, coupled with the continuing decline in the 7-8 student populations, each of the District s six middle schools show manageable resident figures over the next seven years (ranging from as low as for Rancho Pico JHS in 2017 to as high as 1, students in La Mesa JHS by Fall 2019). The seven-year projections show 7-8 student growth within two of the Hart District s six junior high schools, while the others show stability or some sharp declines. This report uses the 1,250-mark as the ideal size for all existing and future junior high schools. Currently, the District houses 6, students, which averages out to 1, students at its six junior high schools (down from the 1,214 average in 2009). According to the projections, the 7-8 student population could drop to around 6,625 by Fall 2015 and then see increases through Fall 2020 (6,968 in 2020, including out-of-district students) when new large housing projects may begin. If recent trends continue then it appears that the Hart District will not need to build another middle school over the next seven years. With the changes to the six junior high school boundaries, it appears that the Hart District has March 14, 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7 successfully prevented any of the sites from exceeding their capacities over the next seven years. All of the potential new housing units still point to the eventual need for at least a seventh junior high school site, clearly required after the scope of the seven-year projections (after Fall 2020). Likely locations for additional 7-8 sites are at least one in the Newhall Ranch project area, one in northeastern portion of the District (somewhere in the Vasquez Canyon area) and/or possibly one in the southeastern region of the District. High School (9-12) Conclusions Currently, the main issue of concern is housing the high school population in the Castaic area for the next five years. Currently, the Castaic area contains 1, students (up a bit from the 1,478 it had in 2012, there were 1, students in 2009) and should continue to see a decline in its population through Fall 2017, where it may drop down close to as low as 1, students and then see some small increases. In previous projection reports (about 5 years ago) there had been a large amount of growth in the Castaic area. However, with the changes in the economy, completion of certain housing projects, drastic declines in new housing sales and various large projects being delayed or removed altogether, this has resulted in a sharp reduction in the potential growth in the Castaic area for the next seven years. There are other pressing issues that face the Hart District including how it will house the projected resident counts for Saugus, Valencia and Golden Valley HS s over the next seven years. At its peak, Saugus High School housed over 2, students (2,738 in 2005) and Valencia HS once housed 3,503 students in Policy changes regarding restricting or limiting transfers into these schools may be necessary. In addition, the relocation of certain programs from the Valencia and Saugus campuses may also be required. Currently, 18.5% ( students) of Saugus HS s students transfer out to go to another District facility and 19.0% ( students) of Valencia s students go elsewhere. Golden Valley HS actually has the District s highest transfer out rate; nearly 25% of its students (585!) go to another District school. The District seems to want to cap Golden Valley s enrollment to around 2,200. So if all of these transfer trends are allowed to continue and the District implements some of the other actions mentioned above, then the District should be able to manage the enrollment over the next seven years at these three schools. Focusing on the last three years of the projections (Fall ) you could start to see a pattern where additional high schools could eventually be needed just beyond the scope of these projections (after 2020). With the projected growth for the Canyon, Golden Valley and Saugus High School areas, another high school site (#8) may eventually be needed either in the northeast or southeast portion of the District. The Newhall Ranch project is expected to start producing large amounts of new students by 2018 and should continue for another years. Newhall Ranch, the remainder of Stevenson Ranch and the housing to be built around Magic Mountain (Entrada) points towards a need for another high school site (#9) on the west side of the District, somewhere within the current West Ranch High School boundary, again sometime beyond the 2020 timeframe of this report. March 14, 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

8 The Hart District will need to closely monitor the housing sales and growth in student population to determine which one of these future sites may be needed first and when. The potential in new housing sales is so great, that if the market makes a sharp recovery, this could have a drastic impact on the Santa Clarita Valley and its student population. But for now, the slowdown in new housing sales is expected to continue for a number of years and play a large part in keeping the projections lower than in demographic reports from years past. The order in which a particular school is constructed can be adjusted due to shifting demographic trends, changes in the economy and the unpredictability of the housing market. Therefore the exact timing and order of construction of any new school facility is subject to change. March 14, 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

9 SECTION ONE METHODOLOGY SOURCES OF DATA Geographic Map Data Five geographic data layers were updated for use in the seven-year student population projections: 1. Street Centerline Database 2. Study Areas 3. Schools 4. Students Historical and Current 5. Planned Residential Development 1) Street Centerline Data DDP has licensed a digital street centerline map of the School District. The street database has associated attributes that contains, but are not limited to, the following fields: full street name, address range and street classification. The main function of the streets is in the geo-coding process of the student data. Each student is address matched to the streets by their given address. The geo-coding process places a point on the map for every student in the exact location that student resides. This enables DDP to analyze the student data in a geographic manner. Another vital utilization of the digital street database is in the construction of study areas. Freeways, major streets and neighborhood streets are used as boundaries for the study areas. 2) Study Areas Study areas are small geographic areas and the building blocks of a school district; they are similar to neighborhoods. Study areas are geographically defined following logical boundaries of the neighborhood, such as: freeways, streets, railroad tracts, rivers, etc... Each study area is then coded with the elementary, middle and high school that the area is assigned to attend. By gathering information about the district at the study area level, you can closely monitor growth and demographic trends in particular regions and spot potential need for boundary changes or new facilities. 3) Schools The District provided school facility location information to DDP for the purpose of mapping the District facilities. 4) Student Data a. Historical Student Data - Historical enrollment is used to compare past student population growth and trends as well as the effects of mobility (move in, move out from existing housing) throughout the District. DDP utilized the 4 previous year's (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013) address matched students as historical data. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 1

10 b. Current Student Data - Student data files were collected by DDP for the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District and its four feeder districts (Castaic Union School District, Newhall School District, Saugus School District and the Sulphur Springs Union Elementary School District) from late September 2013 to early- October 2013, all close to the CBEDS date (10/2/2013). These five separate student data files were compiled and summarized by grade level and by Study Area and then used as a base for the projections contained in this report. Existing students were categorized by Study area through the address matching process that locates each student within a particular area based upon their given address (this process is called geocoding ). The projections run each of the next seven years from Fall 2014 through Fall The Student Accounting Summary (Table 1, below) indicates the total student enrollment for each of the five school districts for files that were received on a variety of dates in 2013 (from late September to early October) and the number of students used in the seven-year student projections by residence. According to the four districts, each of the files provided to DDP are to represent their enrollment as close to the CBEDS date as possible (10/2/13). Once again, the projections by residence are based where the students live and exclude students residing outside of the District s boundaries, and students unable to be address matched (due to incomplete address information). Table 1 Student Accounting Summaries Wm. S. Hart Union High School District (7 th -12 th grade) Fall 2013/2014 Actual Enrollment (received 10/2/2013) Total Students Provided by District File (representing 10/2/2013) 22,763 Students Living completely outside of Hart District area -98 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -8 Students with a grade of US (Transition Learning Center) -59 HART 7-12 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 22,598 Castaic Union School District (K-8 th grade) Fall 2013/14 Actual Enrollment (received 9/27/2013) Total Students Provided by District File (representing late Sept. 2013) 2,692 Pre-K Students (not involved in the study, removed from the projections) -39 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -14 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -1 Transitional Kindergarten students -56 CASTAIC K-8 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 2,582 March 14, 2014 Section One Page 2

11 Table 1 Student Accounting Summaries (cont d.) Newhall School District (K-6 th grade) Fall 2012/2013 Actual Enrollment (received 10/2/2013) Total Students Provided by District File (representing 10/2/2013) 6,828 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -26 Transitional Kindergarten students -136 NEWHALL K-6 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 6,666 Saugus School District (K-6 th grade) Fall 2012/2013 Actual Enrollment (received 10/7/2013) Total Students Provided by District File (representing early Oct. 2013) 10,132 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -69 Transitional Kindergarten students -128 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -48 SAUGUS K-6 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 9,887 Sulphur Springs Union Elementary School District (K-6 th grade) Fall 2013/2014 Actual Enrollment (9/27 through 10/4/2013) Total Students Provided by District Files 5,567 Pre-K Students (not involved in the study, removed from the projections) -71 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -41 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -4 Transitional Kindergarten students -74 SULPHUR SPRINGS K-6 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 5,377 5) Planned Residential Development - This data was obtained through discussions with the District and major developers within the District boundaries. Data includes development name, location, housing type, total number of units and projected move in dates (phasing). Phasing for planned housing is factored into the seven-year projections. (See Section Two for a detailed listing of the planned residential development). In the student population projection DDP includes all Approved and Tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated annually. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 3

12 Non-Geographic Data Three basic sets of non-geographic data were compiled and reviewed for use in the sevenyear student population projections by residence: 1. Births by Zip Code 2. Mobility Factors 3. Student Yield Factors 1) Births by Zip Code Data - Birth data by postal zip code was obtained from the California State Department of Health for the years and roughly correlated to the four feeder districts to the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District. Past changes in historical birthrates are used to estimate incoming kindergarten student population from existing housing. Birth data for 2012 was not yet available at the time of this report. 2) Mobility Factors - Mobility refers to the increase/decrease in the migration of students within the District boundary (move-in/move-out of students from existing housing). Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage of increase/decrease among each grade for every year of the projections. The Mobility Factors help account for the net effect of the migration of families into and out of the District from existing homes in established neighborhoods. Mobility Factors help account for housing resales, renter migration and dropouts. 3) Student Yield Factors (SYF s) It was part of this year s contact to have DDP update the District s Student Yield Factors (SYF s) so DDP calculated these numbers using a housing count of existing dwelling units throughout the District for a five-year period ( ). This survey included three main housing types: Single-Family Detached (SFD), Multi- Family Attached (MFA) [townhomes, condominiums, duplexes, triplexes, quads] and Apartments (APT). These factors, combined with planned residential development units are used to determine the number of students generated from new residential housing development projects. Student Yield Factor calculations will be discussed again in the Seven Year Projection Methodology section. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 4

13 SEVEN YEAR PROJECTION METHODOLOGY The projection methodology used in this study combines historical student population figures, past and present demographic characteristics, and planned residential development to forecast future student population at the study area level. District-wide projections are summarized from the individual study area projections. These projections are based on where the students reside and where they should be attending school. We use the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate estimate of where future school facilities should be located. The best way to plan for future student population shifts is to know where the next group of students will be residing. The following details the methodology used in preparing the student population projections by residence. Seven-Year Projections Projections are calculated out seven years from the date of projection for several reasons. The planning horizon for any type of facility is typically no less than five years, often longer. Seven years are sufficient to adequately plan for a new facility. It is a short to mid term solution for planning needs. Projections beyond seven years are based on speculation due to the lack of reliable information on birthrates, new home construction, economic conditions etc. Why Projections are Calculated by Residence Typically, school district projections are based on enrollment by school. However, this method is inadequate when used to locate future school facility needs, because the location of the students is not taken into consideration. A school s enrollment can fluctuate due to variables in the curriculum, program changes, school administration and open enrollment policies. These variables can skew the apparent need for new or additional facilities in an area. The method used by DDP is unique because it modifies a standard cohort projection with demographic factors and actual student location. DDP bases it s projections on the belief that school facility planning is more accurate when facilities are located where the greatest number of students reside. The best way to plan for future schools is to know where the next group of students will be coming from. The following details the methodology used in preparing the student population projections. 1) Progression - Each year of the projections, 12 th grade students graduate and the continuing students progress through to the next grade level. This normal progression of students is modified by the following factors: March 14, 2014 Section One Page 5

14 2) Incoming Kindergarten Live birth data is reported to the California State Department of Health by the resident postal zip code of the mother. DDP uses birth data by zip code so, if need be, a different birth factor can be applied to various areas of the District. Incoming kindergarten classes, for existing homes, are estimated by comparing changes in past births and birthrates. Table 2, shows the total births for each of the feeder District areas using birth data collected by zip code and correlated as close as possible to the appropriate District boundary (see the map on page 7). Incoming kindergarten classes are determined by multiplying the existing kindergarten class (2013) by the percent increase/decrease in the birthrate for the year the kindergarten class was born (2008). Assuming that the Fall 2013 kindergarten class was born in 2008, DDP compared the total births in 2008 to the total births in 2009, to determine a factor for next year's kindergarten class (Fall 2014). Similarly, 2008 was compared to 2010 (Fall 2015 K class) and 2008 to 2011 (Fall 2016 K class). The birth data for 2012 was not yet available at the time of the report. Table 2 Birth Factors by Feeder District Boundaries Castaic Union SD 116.9% 110.0% 100.3% 105.5% 107.4% 105.8% 104.8% Newhall SD 99.9% 97.6% 90.1% 93.9% 95.0% 94.2% 93.3% Saugus SD 92.4% 96.3% 88.0% 92.3% 92.3% 92.2% 91.2% Sulphur Springs UESD 97.7% 98.6% 99.0% 98.8% 98.7% 98.8% 98.8% The Birth Factor table above shows, there is expected to be a fairly consistent downward trend in the number of incoming Kindergarteners. DPP looked at the first four years of birth data for each feeder district area and made assumptions for the last four years of the projection ( ). A conservative approach was used for these later years, usually averaging the previous three years. It is important not to over project the number of new kindergarteners in the final years of the projection (the birth data for the students in the later years of the projections does not exist, since the students are currently being born or are yet to be born). Please keep in mind that the Birth Factors play no role in the 9-12 grade projections and only slightly for the 7-8 grade projections during the seven-year span of the projections since the Fall 2013 Kindergartener does not reach 7 th grade until Fall DDP also made adjustments (reductions) to the calculated birth factors to help to offset for the large amount of new residential development within the area during that same period, which could skew the data and for the new Transitional Kindergarten program (implemented for the first time by the feeder districts in Fall 2012/13). Adjustments to the birth factors help to reduce double-counting. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 6

15 91384 CUSD SUSD Zip Codes Overlayed on the Feeder District Areas for the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Castaic Union School District Saugus Union School District NSD SSSD Sulphur Springs School District Newhall School District Map Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 2014 Source: Zip Code Map for Report.mxd Miles 1 inch = 1.75 miles Feeder District Boundaries Zip Codes Page 7

16 3) Student Mobility Factors Student Mobility Factors further refine the seven-year student population projections. DDP is referring to mobility as the increase or decrease in the movement of students within the District boundary on an annual basis. A sampling of students living in established neighborhoods within a four year period are averaged and the resulting figures are applied to the projections as the students matriculate through the grades. High school drop-out rates, apartment movement, housing resales as well as foreclosure rates within the District are inherently built into the Mobility Factors that DDP calculates. Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage of increase/decrease to each grade for every year of the projections. A sample of 299 of the total 355 study areas was selected throughout the District s area that contains no new housing construction over the past five years. An analysis was made comparing enrollment figures from year-to-year to determine if there was a net increase or decrease of students from grade level to grade level. The sampling used was taken over a four-year period (student data from 2010 through 2013) and three groupings were averaged. For example, a comparison was made for the Fall th student population to the Fall th grade students within a specific study area. This comparison was also conducted for Fall 2011 & Fall 2012 and the Fall 2012 & Fall 2013 groupings. The calculations for these three paired-year comparisons were averaged and a Mobility Factor was applied for each grade transition. A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor of A net student loss is represented by a factor less than and a net gain by a factor greater than The 299 study areas sampled were separated into the appropriate elementary school district and Mobility Factors were calculated for the Castaic Union School District (32 study areas), Newhall (82 study areas), Saugus (89 study areas) and Sulphur Springs Elementary Districts (96 study areas). DDP then broke down the Mobility Factors for each feeder district further, by elementary attendance area. Please see the list of all 56 study areas excluded in the mobility study following Table 3. A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor of 100%. A net student loss is represented by a factor less than 100% and a net gain by a factor greater than 100% (see example). Example: th grade students in Newhall ES s area for Fall 2013 X % (Newhall ES s area 6 th to 7 th grade mobility factor) = Newhall ES s area 7 th grade students in Fall 2014 Having historical student data categorized by Study area is extremely helpful in calculating accurate Student Mobility Factors. DDP was able to utilize the last four year s (Fall 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013) student data. The 2010 student data was compared to 2011, 2011 to 2012, and 2012 to the 2013 student data at the Study area level for each elementary attendance area. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 8

17 SY 2013/2014 Report TABLE 3 - MOBILITY FACTORS CASTAIC MOBILITY FACTOTRS MF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12 Castaic ES Live Oak ES Northlake Hills ES NEWHALL MOBILITY FACTOTRS MF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12 Newhall District-wide McGrath Meadows Newhall Oak Hills n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Old Orchard Peachland Pico Canyon Stvnson Rch Valencia Vlly Wiley Cyn SAUGUS MOBILITY FACTOTRS MF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12 Saugus District-wide Bridgeport ES Cedarcreek ES Entrada ES Site n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Foster ES Helmers ES Highlands ES Mountain View ES Northpark ES Plum Canyon ES Rio Vista ES Rosedell ES Santa Clarita ES Skyblue Mesa ES Tesoro del Valle ES West Creek Academy n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a SULPHUR SPRINGS MOBILITY FACTOTRS MF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12 Canyon Springs CS Fair Oaks Ranch CS Golden Oak CS Leona Cox CS Mint Canyon CS Mitchell CS Pinetree CS Sulphur Springs CS Valley View CS Attendance Areas that are highlighted in yellow means that its District-wide factors were used instead due to the same size being too low. Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Section One - Page 9

18 Table 3 - Mobility Factors (continued) Study Areas excluded in the sample (56 in total): In the Castaic Area [6]: (2C,5C,5E,8B,8D,8E); in the Newhall Area [5]: (100F,101,144,148,153C); in the Sulphur Springs Area [5]: 64A,73A,93E,95,142; and in the Saugus Area [40]: (12,13,13A,14A,14C,14D,14F,14G,14H,14I,14V,15,15A,16A,16B,19A,19B,19F, 19K,19N,19P,29D,29E,29F,29G,29H,29J,29K,36B,38A,38B,42,45,46,47,48,49A,19B,50,56. The Mobility Factors in Table 3 show that there is typically a net increase in the Kindergarten to 1 st grade transitions, due mostly to parents choosing to put their children in Kindergarten at other institutions (mostly day care) and then enrolling them at the public schools at the 1 st grade level. For the most part the Mobility Factors also show that across the board the feeder districts are losing some students in the younger grades, from 2 nd -5 th, but do gain a little back in 6 th grade. The 8 th to 9 th grade Mobility Factors are the most telling; usually this factor is the largest (shown by mostly green numbers, above 1.000), but these factors are lower than typical. This is where students usually enter the public high schools from private K-8 institutions and it students suddenly appear out of nowhere (not previously enrolled at a public middle school), except, interestingly, for the Castaic area. The MF-9 factors are on the low side and coupled with the MF-10 and MF-11 factors, tell us that overall the Valley is losing students/families by the time they reach high school age and are not being replaced by similar demographics. The Hart District is losing students in grades 10 and 11, shown by the red figures. A possible explanation is that families are simply moving out and not being replaced at all (vacant homes) or they do not have as many children, or any high school age children. What is also interesting is that the MF-12 factors (students moving from 11 th to 12 th ) are very high (nearly all are green) and higher than they have been in recent years. There could be several reasons for this higher MF-12 rate: 1) it could be that more students are being held back and not graduating and 2) another reason could be that students are entering the Hart District at that level from other schools/programs (OFL, private schools, etc.). 4) Student Yield Factors 7 Year Projections The Student Yield Factors (sometimes referred to as "Student Generation Rates"), when applied to planned residential development units, determine how many additional students will be generated from new construction within the District (see Section Two for details on planned residential development). It is part of this year s contact (Fall 2013) to have DDP update the District s Student Yield Factors (SYF s). Two sets of data are required to calculate Student Yield Factors: current student records (provided by all of the Santa Clarita Valley school districts to DDP in September and October 2013 and current housing unit data (acquired from the Los Angeles County Tax Assessor files, also in September 2013). Each student record and tax assessor record is mapped by their given address. The two database sets are then linked by common their location. This allows DDP to associate each student with a specific housing unit. DDP uses three general categories of housing units for its Student Yield Factor studies: Single-Family March 14, 2014 Section One Page 10

19 Detached (SFD), Multi-Family Attached (MFA) [condominiums, townhouses, duplexes, etc.] and Apartments (APT). Before the SYF s can be applied to the current housing units, the year of construction for each housing type must be analyzed. New housing generally attracts young families with elementary school aged children. Over the next 12 to 15 years, the children grow older and pass through the grades. This cycle is then repeated throughout the life of the home. Analyzing the year of construction for new housing units can help estimate the number of facilities needed to accommodate new students. Once DDP was able to determine a large sample of new housing units built from , then calculations are performed to produce a Student Yield Factor. The number of current students residing in a particular housing type is then divided by the total number of units for that particular housing type. These factors were produced using large samplings of the three main unit types built within a five year period ( ) within the William S. Hart Union High School District Boundary. The main reason for using this specific housing sample is to apply a comparable factor to the "new" housing units. The idea is that housing units built within the last five years best represent those that are being built or are going to be built in the near future. Collectively (all across the Santa Clarita Valley), the sample size using the latest housing data (collected in late September 2013) included 1,949 total units, according to L.A. County Assessor records (down from the 2,702 sample size in DDP s 2011 SYF study, even more substantially from the 6,965 total units in the 2009 study, the 12,024 total units used in the 2007 and the 15,801 total units in a 2005 study). The different housing types include 1,212 single-family detached (SFD) dwelling units; 517 multi-family attached (MFA) units (such as condominiums and townhouses); and 220 apartment (APT) units. [In 2011, when DDP last conducted this study, there were 1,825 SFD units, 657 MFA units and 220 apartment units used in the sample for units built from ]. DDP produced essentially five sets of Student Yield Factors: one for each of the four Wm. S. Hart UHSD feeder areas and a Valley-wide set that sums up all four district s areas. These SYF s were then applied to the appropriate study areas that comprise each feeder district boundary (see Appendix C, for more detailed SYF calculations). The following steps show the process that DDP uses for calculating "Student Yield Factors (SYF s)." On the District's behalf, DDP acquired the most current housing database from the L.A. County Assessor's Office in September of This housing data was mapped to the same streets as the student data (downloaded from all five public school districts in late September/early October 2013). All students with the same address as a particular housing unit are then geographically linked and, therefore, the number of students coming from specific housing types could then be calculated. DDP calculated individual sets of Student Yield Factors (SYF's) for each of the four feeder elementary districts (broken down by the three housing types). When the sample sizes of units built within the last five years were not large enough, then a Santa Clarita Valley-wide (Wm. S. Hart UHSD boundary) sample was used. For all of the elementary districts, there were enough SFD units built within the last five years, however, in some March 14, 2014 Section One Page 11

20 cases (see Table 4) there was a need of a larger sample size for MFA and APT units. This sample should reflect a reasonable number of students expected from planned residential developments. Table 4 lists the Student Yield Factors that DDP calculated for the four feeder district areas that make up the William S. Hart Union High School District boundary as well as a Santa Clarita Valley-wide summary (which is essentially the same area that encompasses the Wm. S. Hart UHSD area). Table 4 Student Yield Factors (SYF's) (Using Individual District-wide samples)* *Sample size includes units built from Sulphur Springs Union School District Castaic Union School District SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT K **0.044 **n/a K-6 **0.368 **n/a **n/a **0.033 **n/a 7-8 **0.000 **n/a **n/a **0.078 **n/a 9-12 **0.368 **n/a **n/a K **0.156 **n/a K-12 **0.737 **n/a **n/a Saugus Union School District Newhall School District SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT K K-6 **0.182 **n/a **n/a **0.152 **n/a **n/a **0.485 **n/a **n/a K K-12 **0.818 **n/a **n/a Wm. S. Hart Union HS District Area SFD MFA APT K K A Santa Clarita Valley-wide sampling ** = The sample size was deemed to be too small, so the Santa Clarita Valley-wide (Wm. S. Hart UHSD area) sample was used. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 12

21 5) Planned Residential Development Closely related to the Student Yield Factors are planned residential development units. Planned residential development data is collected to determine the number of new residential units that will be built over the seven-year time frame of the student population projections. The units built within the next seven years will have the appropriate SYF applied to it to determine the number of new students the planned residential development will yield. This data was obtained through discussions with the major developers within the District boundaries, the Planning Department of the City of Santa Clarita and local developers. A database and map of the planned residential development was created, including, when available, project name, location, housing type, total number of units and estimated move in dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based upon occupancy of the unit and is used to help time the arrival of students from these new developments. (see Section Two for details on planned residential development occupancy) In the student population projection by residence DDP includes all Approved and Tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated annually. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 13

22 APPLYING THE VARIABLES TO GENERATE THE PROJECTIONS The following paragraphs summarize how DDP uses the factors to determine the student population projections (see Chart 1 on page 15 for a flowchart of this process). Remember that these projections are based on residence. Wm. S. Hart Union High School District has been broken up into 355 study areas and each are coded for each elementary, middle and high school depending upon what attendance area they Fall within. The residential projections are calculated at the study area level. This means that DDP conducts 355 individual projections that are based upon the number of students residing in each study area The first step in running these projections involve listing the number of students that live in a particular study area by each individual grade (Kindergarten through 12 th grade). The current student base (Fall 2013) is then passed onto the next year's grade (for example, 2013 s 6 th graders become 2014's 7 th graders, 2013's 8 th graders become 2014's 9 th graders, and so on). After the natural progressions of students through the grades are applied, then Birth Factors are multiplied to the current Kindergarten class to generate a base for the following year's Kindergarten class. Next, a Mobility Factor is applied to all grades. Again, these factors take into account the natural in/out migration of students throughout the District. A specific Mobility Factor was calculated for each grade transition (K to 1 st, 1 st to 2 nd 11 th to 12th) and is applied to the appropriate grade to estimate the next year s progressed students. A separate set of Mobility Factors were calculated for each elementary attendance area and the study areas that make each elementary attendance area were applied the appropriate factors. The last essential layer applied to the projections deals with additional students from planned residential development. This is a simple calculation, again conducted at the study area level, where the estimated number of new housing units for a particular year is multiplied by the appropriate Student Yield Factors. For example, if 100 single family detached (SFD) units are to be built in a specific study area in a given year, then you would multiply this number (100) by the SFD 9-12 student yield factor (.157, using Sulphur Springs areas 9-12 factor as an example) and the resulting number (15.7) is divided evenly among the four grades. The same process is conducted for each of the other two grade groupings (K-6 and 7-8). To finish generating the projections by residence, the same process is conducted for each of the 355 study areas. Once the projections have been run at the study area level, then it is simple addition to determine projections for each of the District's attendance areas or for a district-wide summary. For example, the residential projections for Canyon High School are simply the summary of all of the study areas that make up this specific attendance area (see Sections Five and Six for the projections of each middle and high school attendance area). The District Summary for the projections (Section Four) is a total summary of all 355 study areas, which excludes all of the students that attend a District school and live completely outside of the District's boundaries and students unable to be address matched. These out-of-district and unmatched students are factored back into the projections by simply adding the existing totals in at the bottom of the projections (please see the Attendance Matrices in Section Three for a breakdown of the out-of-district and unmatched students by school). DDP adds the current total out-of-district and unmatched students to each year of the projections because there are no ways to accurately forecast these students in the future. March 14, 2014 Section One Page 14

23 Chart 1 Projections by Residence Flowchart March 14, 2014 Section One Page 15

24 SECTION TWO PLANNED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT This data was obtained through discussions with the major developers within the District boundaries, the Planning Department of Santa Clarita and local developers. A database and map of the planned residential development was created, including, when available, project name, location, housing type, total number of units and estimated move in dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based upon occupancy of the unit and is used to help time the arrival of students from these new developments. In the student population projection by residence DDP includes all Approved and Tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the seven year projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated annually. The Residential Development Summary Table, on page 19, has been provided to give the District an idea of the amount of anticipated residential construction over the seven year timeframe of the projections. A map on page 18 has also been included in the report to give a visual aspect as to the size and location of these projects as well as the study areas that they fall within. Note: All study areas not appearing on this table have no planned development over the next seven years at the time this study was prepared. The numbers of projected housing units shown in the table are used in developing the student projections. There are many major residential development projects that are expected to dominate the Santa Clarita Valley area over the next seven years (see the map on page 18 for a visual depiction of where these projects are located). However, nearly every project current and future has been either severely slowed down or has been pushed out almost indefinitely. Pardee Construction is the most active residential developer in the eastern portion of the District with the ongoing Fair Oaks Ranch project and eventually the housing units in the Golden Valley Ranch and Skyline Ranch projects. Lennar is now overseeing the remainder of the Stevenson Ranch development (all west of I-5), and we have its Phase 5 starting around The remainder of the Tesoro del Valle project, in the central portion of the District could resume building by sometime in 2016 at the soonest. Newhall Land and Farming (NLF), which is owned by Lennar, is the most active developer in the Santa Clarita Valley. Currently, NLF is continuing to build in the Valencia area with a large number of individual developments. West Creek/West Hills, an active NLF project in the center of the District, had its first occupants towards the end of 2007 and contains over 2,200 units. River Park is another active NLF project that is currently under construction at the eastern terminus of Newhall Ranch Road, just north of Soledad Canyon Road, and contains over 1,000 mixed use units. Newhall Ranch is NLF s largest planned community, which contains over 20,000 residential units, and could have its first occupants as soon as late 2016 and could take up to 20 years to complete. Newhall Ranch spans from Interstate 5 on the east and the L.A./Ventura County border on the west. Additional NLF projects are scattered through the central and western areas of the Hart District. For the most part, the NLF projects that have yet to begin have been delayed a few more years than was stated March 14, 2014 Section Two Page 16

25 in previous reports, due mostly to the downturn in the economy and the virtual standstill in new housing sales. However, new home sales have definitely started picking up the last few years, but nowhere near the level where sales were as recently as There are a number of smaller residential developments that are currently under construction and are estimated to be completed over the next few years. Projects by the Toll Brothers (recently taking over the Shapell projects) and KB Homes (finishing up with the Ridgeview project) in the Plum Canyon area are examples of projects that were halted or delayed during the downturn in the housing market and are now selling. The Northlake community located in the Castaic area on the east side of Interstate 5, was a SunCal project that contains nearly 4,000 mixed units and is currently on hold and has been removed from the projections due to the uncertainty of the project and ownership status. There are many more projects under construction or planned to be built over the next seven years. All of these projects and more have been incorporated in the Residential Development Summary Table located on page 19 and on the active project list located on page 20, which breaks down each individual housing development that plans on building between now and According to the Residential Development Summary Table on page 19, DDP is estimating that there could be a grand total of 15,847 residential units built within the boundaries of the Hart High School District over the next seven years. As a sign that things are improving in the new housing market, the projected 7-year new housing total (15,847 units) is higher than the total used in last years (2012) report (11,524). That breaks out to a total of 5,369 SFD s, 7,875 MFA s and 2,603 APT s for the entire Santa Clarita Valley through 2020 (higher than the 4,538 SFD s, 4,643 MFA s and 2,343 APT s in the 2012 report). For the next school year (October 2013 through September 2014) there may be as many as 969 total units constructed, with another 977 more units to arrive the following year. These figures still show residential growth for the Valley, however, both of these figures are substantially less than was estimated in reports from about 6-7 years ago (before the housing market crash). The summary does show a steady stream of over 3,500 new units a year from Fall 2017 through 2020, but they could possibly be pushed out further if some of the large projects (especially Newhall Ranch) get delayed for at least a few more years. Please keep in mind that this summary is a best guess estimate of the progress of new housing units over the next seven years. DDP visited all of the active new housing sales offices and had conversations with almost all of the large developers to get a better feel for the current state of the Santa Clarita Valley s housing market. See the list on page 20 for a detailed listing of all new housing projects that are expected to be active over the next seven years. The housing market has slowed considerably about 5-6 years ago and has picked up once again the last few years. Of course, changes in the economy have a direct impact on the demand for new housing. The exact timing of a potential larger upswing in the housing market is currently unknown, but the District will need to continue to research this topic on an annual basis. Please note that all phasing schedules are based on occupancy, all Approved and Tentative maps plus proposed and potential development are included on these lists, the Summary only includes units that may be occupied in the seven year timeframe of the projections and are based upon data gathered in late 2013 (September through December) and may not reflect recent changes. March 14, 2014 Section Two Page 17

26 THE OLD RD ¹º 5C HASLEY CANYON RD 8F 8B 8E 9 5G 5A DEL VALLE RD 5L ¹º POTRERO CANYON RD 5D 5P 5Q 5R HENRY MAYO DR 5E 5M 2C GOLDEN STATE FRWY THE OLD RD 5T 5N 6A THE OLD RD HENRY MAYO DR NEWHALL RANCH RD THE OLD RD 7A THE OLD RD VALENCIA BLVD TESORO DEL VALLE 19A MONTALVO PROPERTIES, LLC PICO CANYON RD NEWHALL RANCH RD THE OLD RD THE OLD RD GOLDEN STATE FRWY 19J 19L DECORO DR MCBEAN PKWY 19K 19N VALENCIA BLVD THE OLD ROAD SAN FRANCISQUITO CANYON RD 14D COPPER HILL DR LYONS AV SECO CANYON RD 14F SECO CANYON RD VIA PRINCESSA RAILROAD AVE 14G GOLDEN STATE FRWY 14H 14K 14B 14W COPPER HILL DR BOUQUET CANYON RD SIERRA HWY NEWHALL AVE ANTELOPE VALLEY FRWY GOLDEN VALLEY RD COPPER HILL DR SIERRA HWY ANTELOPE VALLEY FRWY SIERRA HWY BOUQUET CANYON RD GOLDEN VALLEY RD PLACERITA CANYON RD VASQUEZ CANYON RD 0 6B ARTE 19G 14I 18 LENNAR 0 HOMES 20A 14J 14L 14R 14S 15A 14N 14Q F MOSAIC 14P LOS VALLES 5B LENNAR 0 HOMES 0 14M 16B WAS DAN PALMER CAPRI 0 CLARIDAD 20B LENNAR HOMES 14T 17 0 SONRISA LENNAR HOMES ¹º 23A HIGHGATELENNAR HOMES 0 19P 14U 5J 19B 20C 21 DR HORTON 0 LAVELLO 24 24A 14V 17A 65A BELMONT LENNAR HOMES 0 DISTRICT 20D B DR HORTON AVANTI PLUM CANYON RANCH TOSCANA 7B 20E 14E 27A 29G LENNAR 5K 0 HOMES 29A SHAPELL (S&S CONSTR.) 64 19FLENNAR HOMES 28A 65B ARIA 19D 20G 25 29B 8D 0 LENNAR HOMES 20F 23C 26 70B MONUMENT 20H 27 29E B 22 DR HORTON PLUM CANYON 19M 20I 28B 67A TOLL BROS? WAS SHAPPEL C 20J 34B K SKYLINE RANCH 29H 20K 20L RIDGEVIEW PARDEE CONSTRUCTION 70A 19H 19E 66C ¹º 31B 34A KB HOMES 66B 30A ¹º ¹º 64A 69 8C 30C 32 29F 29J 29D 30K 68 30B 31A 33 70C 66D 11 31C 78C 30L 30M 39A 29C 66E B LANDMARK VILLAGE 31D 31E 37 30D THE KEYSTONE 39B NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING 30N BROOKFIELD HOMES 76A 30G 30H 73B 76C 79A 80 38B 30E 30I 36A 78A 75A 79B F 71 76B 78D 30J RIVER VILLAGE ¹º 79C NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING 19C 35 95B A 72A 74A 95A CHARLESTON MISSION VILLAGE 44 36B 55A 72B 73A 74B 84A RBN RANCH ENTRADA NORTH KB HOMES LANDMARK VILLAGE NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING 49A ROBINSON RANCH RESIDENTIA NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING 51 NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING 45 49B HERITAGE HTS/CLASSIC 53 55B 74C 82B 84B 92A NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING C 81A 81C 92C ENTRADA SOUTH 47 LEXINGTON 81B ¹º NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING LENNAR D 74D A VILLA METRO B HOMESTEAD SOUTH NEW HOME COMPANY 85B 91A TRESTLES VALENCIA COMPANY/NLF MISSION VILLAGE 57 85A WILLIAMS HOMES 92B 0 92 NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING C 104A F 90A VISTA CANYON ENTRADA SOUTH 90B 86 JSB DEVELOPMENT52833 NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING 90E 90D 93D CREST VIEW C PARDEE CONSTRUCTION B ¹º A F LIVINGSMART 88A D PARDEE CONSTRUCTION ¹º 100A ¹º 106A 113 LEGACY VILLAGE LENNAR HOMES WESTRIDGE ESTATES 106C CUSTOM HOMES 93B 88 93E 94 95C Lost Cyn A ¹º VALLE DI ORO RESMARK C 93A 102A WILLIAMS HOMES 93F B NEWHALL B 100D A SCHOOL 100C A GOLDEN VALLEY RANCH ¹º B PARDEE CONSTRUCTION DISTRICT 100 ¹º A LEGACY VILLAGE 100E 153A 95D 144B 130 LENNAR HOMES B F 154E 154D 153C OAKRIDGE ESTATES 154H A OAKRIDGE HOMES C HOMESTEAD SOUTH VALENCIA COMPANY/NLF POTRERO VALENCIA COMPANY/NLF ¹º ¹º Streets Junior High Schools High Schools Highways 144 Major Roads Ramp Surface Streets Rivers Lakes Railroads Feeder District Boundary Study Areas and Study Area Numbers CASTAIC SCHOOL 14A LYON CANYON RANCH WESTERN PACIFIC/DR HORTON TESORO DEL VALLE EVANS,COLLINS COMM BLDRS 144C A A 156A B 157A JEFF MCHADDAD 13 14C 154B 154G SAUGUS SCHOOL DISTRICT 158 I 13A Miles 1 inch = 1.11 miles Wm S. Hart Union High School District Study Areas and Study Area Numbers with Planned Residential Development SIERRA HWY SIERRA HWY SAND CANYON RD SAND CANYON RD SIERRA HWY SIERRA HWY ANTELOPE VALLEY FRWY LITTLE TUJUNGA RD DAVENPORT RD 61 16AThat Can Be Built Over the Next Seven Years 62 66A SPRING CANYON JOHN MARKLEY (OWNER) SULPHUR SPRINGS SCHOOL DISTRICT Map prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 2014 Source: Tract Map for Report.mxd 96 ANTELOPE VALLEY FRWY Page 18

27 SY 2013/2014 Report SEVEN-YEAR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY REPORT Total SFD = 5,369 Total MFA = 7,875 Total APT = 2,603 Total Units = 15,847 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6 YEAR 7 "New Boundaries" "New Boundaries" Study 10/3/ /2/ /3/ /2/ /3/ /2/ /3/ /2/ /3/ /2/ /3/ /2/ /3/ /2/2020 All Units/Types Study Feeder ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MIDDLE SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL Area SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT Years 1-7 Area District ATTENDANCE AREA ATTENDANCE AREA ATTENDANCE AREA 5F F CA LIVE OAK ES CASTAIC MS CASTAIC AREA HS CA = Castaic Union School District , CA LIVE OAK ES CASTAIC MS CASTAIC AREA HS NE = Newhall School District 14A A SA TESORO DEL VALLE ES RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS SA = Saugus Union School District 19A A SA TESORO DEL VALLE ES RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS SS = Sulphur Springs Union School District 19F F SA WEST CREEK ACADEMY RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS 19P P SA WEST CREEK ACADEMY RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS 29E E SA PLUM CANYON ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS 29F F SA SKYBLUE MESA ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS 36B B SA HIGHLANDS ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS SA ROSEDELL ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS 38A A SA HIGHLANDS ES SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS 38B B SA HIGHLANDS ES SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS , SA ENTRADA ES SITE RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS 49B B SA HIGHLANDS ES LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS SA RIO VISTA ES LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS PLEASE SEE FOLLOWING PAGE SS CANYON SPRINGS CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS FOR A BREAKDOWN OF EACH PROJECT SS SULPHUR SPRINGS CS SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS FOR EACH STUDY AREA 67B B SS MINT CANYON CS SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS , SS SULPHUR SPRINGS CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS 93A A SS GOLDEN OAK CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS 93E E SS FAIR OAKS CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS 95B B SS SULPHUR SPRINGS CS SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS 100A , A NE OAK HILLS ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS 100F F NE OAK HILLS ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS SS GOLDEN OAK CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS NE PICO CANYON ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS 144A A NE WILEY CANYON ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS 144C C NE WILEY CANYON ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS NE WILEY CANYON ES PLACERITA JHS HART HS Total SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT Total 13 / 14 = 959 Total 14 / 15 = 977 Total 15 / 16 = 1,158 Total 16 / 17 = 1,616 Total 17 / 18 = 3,506 Total 18 / 19 = 3,854 Total 19 / 20 = 3,777 Breakdown of All Units by Feeder District Area (7-year Totals) 1. The phasing schedules on this page are based upon estimated dates of occupancy. SFD MFA APT TOTAL 2. Includes Approved and Tentative maps plus proposed and potential development. Please note that many of the residential projects listed are overseen by Lennar/ Castaic USD Area , Summary only includes units that may be occupied in the seven year timeframe of the projections. Newhall Land and Farming (NLF) Co.. DDP corresponded with Lennar associates in Nov Newhall SD Area 1,075 3, , Based upon data gathered from September 2013-December 2013 and may not reflect recent changes. and was given their estimates for the number of units and phasing schedules for all Saugus SD Area 2,610 2, , The information for this summary was gathered by conversations with projects within the Hart District's boundaries. Therefore, these figures are the best Sulphur Springs USD Area 1, ,414 individual developers, sales offices, district staff and city and county officials. guess estimates that are subject to change due to fluxuations in the economy. 5,369 7,875 2,603 15,847 Notes about this summary report: March 14, 2014 Page 19

28 Listing of the "Active" Projects (Ones that are expected to be building within the next seven years) SY 2013/2014 Report Contact/Owner/ Tract Study Total Type Left to Feeder Developer No. Project/Area Areas Units Units Build Comments District was Dan Palmer Los Valles (incl. golf course) 5F 209 SFD ALL Rough graded / project on hold / bank now controls property / pushed out CA Newhall Land & Farming Newhall Ranch (Landmark Village) SFD ALL These units listed are all of CUSD's share of Landmark Village. CA FEEDER DISTRICT CODES Newhall Land & Farming Newhall Ranch (Landmark Village) MFA ALL NLF's estimate is that there may be units occupied by late 2016 at soonest. CA CA = Castaic Union School District Newhall Land & Farming Newhall Ranch (Landmark Village) APT ALL Pushed out further a few years per previous reports. CA NE = Newhall School District Evans,Collins Comm. Bldrs Tesoro del Valle (remainder) 14A 314 SFD ALL 1st occupants in 2019 at the soonest; to follow the start of the other "new" SFD's SA SA = Saugus Union School District Evans,Collins Comm. Bldrs Tesoro del Valle (remainder) 19A 400 SFD ALL Next wave of TDV units/1st occupants in late-2016 at soonest SA SS = Sulphur Springs Union School District Lennar Homes Arte (West Hills) 19F 79 SFD ALL Nothing happening now/rough graded/1st occupants in 2015? Per NLF SA DR Horton Highgate (West Hills) 19F 79 SFD 69 Started selling in April 2013/10 units occupied/all to be built & occ by Spring 2015 SA DR Horton Belmont (West Hills) 19F 91 SFD 71 Started selling in May 2013/10 units occupied/all to be built & occ by mid-2015 SA Lennar Homes Capri (West Hills) 19F 67 SFD ALL Models opened in Aug 2013 & 1st occupants before the end of the year/done in 2014 SA DR Horton Monument (West Hills) 19F 119 SFD 111 Started selling in April 2013/8 units occupied/all to be built & occ by mid-2016 SA Lennar Homes Mosaic (West Hills) 19F 111 SFD 91 1st 56 units under construction and 20 are occupied/to all done by mid-2015 SA Lennar Homes Claridad (West Creek) 19P 117 MFA models built & sold a few years back / should start again in 2014 and finish by late 2016 SA Lennar Homes Sonrisa (West Creek) 19P 197 MFA ALL Rough graded / 2 more years out / 1st occ. in 2015 at the soonest and all by Fall 2019? per NLF SA Lennar Homes Toscana (West Creek) 19P 162 SFD models were built & sold in 2009 / to start again in 2014 / all occupied by 2017? per NLF SA Lennar Homes Avanti (West Creek) 19P 96 MFA ALL Detached Condo clusters / grading starte in 2013 / 1st occupants in 2015 & done in 2018? SA Lennar Homes Lavello (West Creek) 19P 95 SFD units occupied as of Sept 2013/started up again in 2012 after lengthy delay/done late 2013 SA Lennar Homes Aria (West Creek) 19P 183 SFD 74 Detached condos / 1st occ. was in 2010 and all done by Spring 2016 per NLF SA Now Toll Bros. (was Shapell/S&S) Heatherton & Sage projects (Plum Canyon) 29E 420 SFD units occupied as of Oct 2013 / selling slowly / could change with new ownership SA Now Toll Bros. (was Shapell/S&S) Plum Canyon area 29E 791 MFA ALL Rough graded / still reworking plans / likely will not build all units / 1st occ in 2017? SA KB Homes Ridgeview 29F 75 SFD 40 KB Homes had 2008 stoppage/sales started for this in Dec 2012/all done by summer 2014 SA Lennar Lexington at River Village 36B 102 SFD 53 Was known as Vintage/1st move-ins was in Sept. 2012/Done by sometime in 2015 SA Lennar was Heritage Hts. & River Village 36B 76 SFD ALL 4 models built & sold in 2009 / new product to start in 2015? through 2017 SA Newhall Land & Farming River Village 36B 231 MFA ALL 1st occ in 2016 at soonest per NLF / 2+ years to build out after 1st occ / product may change SA KB Homes Charleston at River Village 36B 45 SFD 42 Sales started in May 2013 / 30 sold & 3 occ / all done by mid 2014? SA Brookfield Homes The Keystone SFD ALL These are typical SFD's/grading in 2014? with 1st occ in 2015? SA Lennar River Village 38A 224 MFA ALL 2 years away from starting contruction / 1st occ in 2015? thru 2020 SA Brookfield Homes The Keystone 38B 387 SFD ALL Coming back to life as small detached condos/could start grading in 2014/1st occ in 2015 SA Newhall Land & Planning Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) APT ALL 1st occ could be in 2017 with a 5+year build-out plan? per NLF/may change MF unit type SA Newhall Land & Planning Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) MFA ALL 1st occ could be in 2017 with a 5+year build-out plan? per NLF/may change MF unit type SA Newhall Land & Farming Entrada South SFD ALL 1st occupants could be in 2018 with a 3+ year build-out plan? per NLF SA Newhall Land & Farming Entrada South MFA ALL 1st occupants could be in 2018 with a 4 year build-out plan? per NLF SA Newhall Land & Farming Entrada South APT ALL 1st occupants could be in 2018 with a 6 year build-out plan? per NLF SA Newhall Land & Farming Entrada North 42 1,150 MFA ALL 1st occupants could be in 2020 with a 6+ year build-out plan? per NLF SA New Home Communities Villa Metro (was "Soledad Village") 49B 407 MFA ALL 4 projects bldg at the same time/sales started in Aug 2013/1st occ in Dec 2013 & done in 2016 SA Williams Homes Valle Di Oro MFA 88 1st 23 units occ since 2008/started up again in 2013/1st new occ in Nov 2014, done in 2 yrs SA Williams Homes Trestles SFD ALL Started grading in late 2013/1st occ in 2014/split between 2 Districts SA Williams Homes Trestles SFD ALL Started grading in late 2013/1st occ in 2014/split between 2 Districts SS Was Pardee Construction Spring Canyon SFD ALL Pardee sold back to original owner in 2010 / pushed out 2 more years / 1st occ in late 2018? SS Pardee Construction Skyline Ranch 67B 1,010 SFD ALL Pardee believes infrastructure to start in 2015 and 1st occ within a few years thereafter SS JSB Development unknown Vista Canyon Ranch SFD ALL Part of a commercial dev./could be grading in Spring 2014/Rental units to start first SS JSB Development unknown Vista Canyon Ranch MFA ALL Offically approved in 2012 /Up to mx of 1,110 mixed units in project/sfd's to go last SS JSB Development unknown Vista Canyon Ranch APT ALL Total units & type breakdown subject to change/1st occ in 2015 all done in 2018? SS RESMARK Townhomes at Lost Canyon 93A 157 APT ALL Resmark took over from Archstone / All units built in 2013 & should be fully occupied by early 2014 SS Pardee Construction remainder of Fair Oaks Ranch 93E 246 SFD 82 Last of the Fair Oaks Ranch SFD units (Crest View & Livingsmart projects); done by Fall 2014 SS Robinson Ranch Residential, LLC Mancara Ranch 95B 99 SFD ALL Still in the early planning stages / resubmit Draft EIR then Planning Commission SS Newhall Land & Farming Homestead (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 699 SFD ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project within Newhall Ranch NE Newhall Land & Farming Homestead (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 2,087 MFA ALL Lots of infrastructure needs to happen before this project can begin NE Newhall Land & Farming Homestead (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 858 APT ALL NE Lennar Homes Legacy Village (Ph. 5 of Stevenson Ranch) 100A 605 SFD ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project, the last phase of Stevenson Ranch NE Lennar Homes Legacy Village (Ph. 5 of Stevenson Ranch) 100A 968 MFA ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project, the last phase of Stevenson Ranch NE Lennar Homes Legacy Village (Ph. 5 of Stevenson Ranch) 100A 467 APT ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project, the last phase of Stevenson Ranch NE Lennar Homes/NLF Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 351 SFD ALL Project is 6-7 years away - 1st occupants by 2018? / Per NLF comments NE Lennar Homes/NLF Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 1,423 MFA ALL Project is 4-5 years away - 1st occupants by 2017? / Per NLF comments NE Lennar Homes/NLF Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 108 APT ALL Project is 6-7 years away - 1st occupants by 2018? / Per NLF comments NE Custom Homes unknown Westridge Estates (custom homes) 100F 86 SFD 10 Last remaining large lots left around golf course/will build sporadically over the years NE Pardee Construction Golden Valley Ranch SFD ALL Hoping to have models open in 2015 / The senior housing was removed from totals SS Oakridge Homes Oakridge Estates SFD 18 Lots are all graded / all custom homes / only 1 unit built / nothing going on now NE Western Pacific?/DR Horton? Lyon's Canyon Ranch 144A 22 SFD ALL Status still in limbo/five years out from starting at the soonest NE Western Pacific?/DR Horton? Lyon's Canyon Ranch 144C 71 SFD ALL This phase of units to follow the 22 SFD's NE Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Page 20

29 SECTION THREE ATTENDANCE MATRICES Two Attendance Matrices have been included to provide a better understanding of where students reside and where they attend school. Remember, our projections are based upon where the students reside, not where they attend school. We use the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate depiction of where future facilities (if necessary) should be located. Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students reside, the figures we use as a base for each school's resident projection may be slightly higher or lower than the actual reported enrollment for each school. These attendance matrices acts as a checks and balances for student accounting. They show where the students reside (in what School of Residence) based upon our address matching capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance) based upon data in the student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these matrices is essential to showing how the students used in the projections match up to the District s records of enrollment for each school. The best way to plan for future facilities is to know where the next group of students will be coming from, not necessarily which school they are currently attending. READING THE MATRICES The following provides a more detailed explanation of how to read the matrices. Reading across the top of the Junior High School (7-8) Attendance Matrix on page 23, you can see that DDP has included ALL schools that contain grades 7 and 8; namely, Arroyo Seco Junior High School (7-8), Castaic Middle School (6-8), La Mesa Junior High School (7-8), Placerita Junior High School (7-8), Rancho Pico Junior High School (7-8), Rio Norte Junior High School (7-8), Sierra Vista Junior High School (7-8) as well as Sequoia Charter, Home Learning JHS and any non-district students. Please note: For reasons of consistency, DDP has treated Castaic Middle School on this table as a 7-8 school, when in reality it is actually a 6-8 school. Looking at the Junior High School (7-8) Attendance Matrix, let's begin with Arroyo Seco Junior High School (School Code #64) as an example. Following down the first column, with No. 64 as its heading, you can see that 1,074 students attend Arroyo Seco and live in the Arroyo Seco Attendance Area. Continuing downward, 15 students attend Arroyo Seco, but live in La Mesa Junior High School s attendance area. The next row shows that five students attend Arroyo Seco Junior High School and live in the Placerita Junior High School Attendance Area; and so on. The Castaic row refers to students living in Castaic s area, but attend Arroyo Seco JHS; there are four such students. The item, Out of District, refers to students living completely outside of the Hart High School District, but attends one of the District's schools. There are eight out of district student attending Arroyo Seco Junior High School. The item named SDC Students refers to the number of Special Day Class Students that are currently registered March 14, 2014 Section Three Page 21

30 to the particular school. Arroyo Seco has 105 SDC students enrolled at the school. The item entitled, "Not Matched," refers to students that were not located due to incomplete address data (including P.O. Boxes). For Arroyo Seco, there are no students with a "nonmatched" address that attends the school (all Arroyo Seco JHS students were able to be mapped/located). If you read across the bottom row ( Total Enrolled ), these numbers should approximately correspond with the District s student counts for each school, close to the Fall 2013 CBEDS date. Therefore, reading across, according to our records, 1,250 students were attending Arroyo Seco Junior High School in October 2013; 1,094 attend La Mesa; 1,089 attend Placerita Junior High School; etc.. The last two rows refer to what DDP is terming transfer in students. Transfers in are all of the students that are currently attending a school outside of their normal attendance area. For example, the 63 transfer in students for Arroyo Seco refers to all of the students that attend Arroyo Seco, but live outside of its attendance area (excluding the students that could not be located due to incomplete address information). The last row shows the overall percentage of how many students are attending a particular school, but live outside of its attendance area. For example, 5.0% of all of the students actually attending Arroyo Seco Junior High School live outside of the school s attendance area. The next step is to start reading across the matrix, beginning with the Arroyo Seco Junior High School attendance area (School Code #64). It is now understood that the 1,074 represents the total number of 7-8 students that live in the Arroyo Seco attendance area and Arroyo Seco Junior High School. The next column, "La Mesa" (#40), refers to the number of 7-8 students that live in the Arroyo Seco Junior High School attendance area, but go to La Mesa Junior High School instead; nine students fall into this category. Ten students live in the Arroyo Seco Junior High School attendance area and goes to Placerita Junior High School, and so on. The column entitled, Total Enrollment per Attendance Area including Castaic lists all of the students living within a particular school s attendance area including Castaic s 7-8 students. The next column Total Hart (7-8) Enrollment excludes all Castaic students. If you add down this column (or add across the Total Enrolled row), you can determine the total number of student records presented by the District to DDP on or around the Fall 2013 CBEDS date (6,876 Hart 7-8 students). The next column adds in the SDC students that live in the particular attendance area. In this case, Arroyo Seco has 126 of the total 436 total SDC students living within its attendance area. The next column lists the actual total number of Junior High School students that live inside the District s attendance areas. Arroyo Seco Jr. High School s attendance area had 1, students living in its area as of early October The actual number of total 7-8 students used in the projections contained within this report can be derived by adding this last column downward (6,833). These same procedures can be used for reading the District's two High School Attendance Matrices (one for only 9 th -10 th Graders and the other for Grades 11 th -12 th ) located on pages 24 and 25. There are two high school matrices because the new attendance boundaries have entered the District s high schools for grades 9-10, but 11 th -12 th graders are still under the old high school boundaries. Across the top of this matrix, DDP has included all schools that contain grades 9 through 12; namely, Canyon, Golden Valley, Hart, Saugus, Sequoia Charter, Valencia, West Ranch, Bowman Continuation High School, Learning Post, Home Learning HS, Non-District and Academy of the Canyons. March 14, 2014 Section Three Page 22

31 Junior High (7-8) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix SY 2013/2014 Report Total Total Hart Special Day Enrollment (7-8) Class (SDC) Total Students (7-8) Per Enrollment Students Living in the School of Enrollment Attendance Per within the District's Sequoia Hart at Home William S. Hart 42,44 Area Attendance Attendance Attendance "Transfers Out" School Arroyo Seco La Mesa Placerita Rancho Pico Rio Norte Sierra Vista Charter JHS Non-Dist Castaic (Incl. Castaic) Area Areas Areas*** Rates Arroyo Seco 1, ,211 1, , % La Mesa ,081 1, , % Placerita ,025 1, , % Rancho Pico % Rio Norte ,014 1, , % Sierra Vista , ,157 1, , % 436 6,833 District-wide Avg, Castaic % Out of District* SDC Students Number of 7-8 Students Used in the Fall 2013/2014 Projections Not Matched** Total Enrolled 1,250 1,094 1,089 1,022 1,150 1, ,397 6,876 # Enrolled, but Total Number of Hart 7-8 Students Not Living in Attend. Area Enrolled as of October 2013 Transfers In District-wide 5.0% 10.1% 7.7% 8.5% 11.4% 7.1% % 0.0% Enrollment % 0.0% * Out of District: Students that live outside of the district boundaries. 10.3% = Schools/Boundaries with Transfers In or Out ** Not Matched: Students that could not be matched due to incomplete addresses. greater than the District-average (9%). Source: Fall 2013/2014 CBEDS students file *** Total Number of Students Living in the District's Attendance Areas: is derived by adding the total number of Hart's 7-8 students living an attendance area 46 = Student groupings greater than 25 that do not provided to DDP by the William S. Hart Union High School District and the Castaic Union plus the total number of SDC students living within the district's boundaries. go to their school of residence. School District in October Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Page 23

32 High School (9th and 10th Grade Only) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix (NEW BOUNDARIES) SY 2013/2014 Report Special Day Total Class (SDC) Total Students Enrollment Students Living in the School of Enrollment (9th) Per within the District's Sequoia Learning Hart at Home William S. Hart Academy Attendance Attendance Attendance "Transfers Out" School Canyon Golden Valley Hart Saugus Charter Valencia West Ranch Post HS HS Non-Dist of the Cyns. Area Areas Areas*** Rates Canyon 1, , , % School of Residence (Attendance Area) Golden Valley , , % Hart , , % Saugus , , , % Valencia , , % West Ranch % Castaic Area HS District-wide Avg , % Out of District* SDC Students Number of 9th and 10th Grade Students Used in the Fall 2013/2014 Not Matched** Projections Total Enrolled: 1,259 1,138 1,194 1, ,632 1, ,883 # Enrolled, but Not Living in Attend. Area District Wide Transfers In Average 8.4% 10.8% 14.0% 5.7% % 12.6% Enrollment % 9.8% * Out of District: Students that live outside of the district boundaries. ** Not Matched: Students that could not be matched due to incomplete addresses. *** Total Number of Students Living in the District's Attendance Areas: is derived by adding the total number of Hart's 9th & 10th grade students living an attendance area plus the total number of SDC students living within the district's boundaries. 14.1% = Schools/Boundaries with Transfers In or Out greater than the District-average. 59 students attending the Transition Learning Center were excluded from the above matrix and projections due to the students having no grade designation. 9th & 10th GRADE MATRIX WITH NEW BOUNDARIES Source: Fall 2013/2014 CBEDS students file provided to DDP by the William S. Hart Union High School District in October Total Number of 9th & 10th Grade Students Enrolled as of October = Student groupings greater than 25 that do not go to their school of residence. Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Page 24

33 High School (11th and 12th Only) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix (OLD BOUNDARIES) SY 2013/2014 Report Special Day Total Class (SDC) Total Students 93,62,60 Enrollment Students Living in the School of Enrollment Bowman 95 Transition 55 (10-12) Per within the District's Sequoia Continuation Learning Learn Hart at Home William S. Hart Academy Attendance Attendance Attendance "Transfers Out" School Canyon Golden Valley Hart Saugus Charter Valencia West Ranch High School Post HS Charter HS Non-Dist of the Cyns. Area Areas Areas*** Rates Canyon , , % School of Residence (Attendance Area) Golden Valley , , % Hart , , % Saugus , , % Valencia , , % West Ranch , % Castaic Area HS District-wide Avg , % Out of District* SDC Students Number of 11th & 12th Grade Students Used in the Fall 2013/2014 Not Matched** Projections Total Enrolled: 1,193 1, , ,442 1, ,945 # Enrolled, but Not Living in District Attend. Area Wide Average Transfers In Enrollment % 16.6% 12.7% 18.0% 16.1% % 13.0% 13.6% * Out of District: Students that live outside of the district boundaries. ** Not Matched: Students that could not be matched due to incomplete addresses. *** Total Number of Students Living in the District's Attendance Areas: is derived by adding the total number of Hart's students living an attendance area plus the total number of SDC students living within the district's boundaries. 14.1% = Schools/Boundaries with Transfers In or Out greater than the District-average (9%). 59 students attending the Transition Learning Center were excluded from the projections due to the students having no grade designation. 11th & 12th GRADE MATRIX WITH OLD BOUNDARIES Source: Fall 2013/2014 CBEDS students file provided to DDP by the William S. Hart Union High School District in October Total Number of 11th & 12th Grade Students Enrolled as of October = Student groupings greater than 25 that do not go to their school of residence. Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Page 25

34 SECTION FOUR -- DISTRICT-WIDE STUDENT PROJECTIONS Seven Year Projection Summaries The student population is projected out over seven years for each of the 355 study areas that make up the entire Wm. S. Hart Union High School District. The District-Wide Projection Summary (on page 27) enables the District to see a broad overview of future growth and what impact this growth will have on existing facilities. The individual study area listings (located in Appendix A, pages ) enable the District to monitor student population growth or decline in smaller geographic areas within the District. The student projections are an estimated number of students over a seven year span using the latest student (Fall 2013) and District information. The projections were prepared for each year from Fall 2014 through Fall The projections are based upon the concept of study areas as building blocks. By breaking down the District into study areas, then these smaller areas of focus can help in exploring various boundary scenarios. The possibilities include: creating new attendance area configurations; looking into more detail on the progress of certain neighborhoods; and specifically, identifying the regions within the District that are experiencing the most growth, have reached stability, or are undergoing a decrease in population or new development. At any point in time, Study areas and their projected resident students can be shifted between schools to assist in balancing enrollment growth. Together, these projection summaries, present the means for identifying the timing of additional student arrival and overall facility requirements and location accommodate the District's expected growth. There are currently 355 study areas in the Hart High School District. All attendance areas are made up of specific study areas (see Appendix A, pages 50, 52 and 54). The entire District Summary is simply the compilation of all 355 study areas (please see page 51 in Appendix A for a map of the District s study areas and study area numbers). For each study area, the student counts are projected out over seven years (Fall 2014 through Fall 2020). DDP uses the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate depiction of where future schools (if necessary) should be located. Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students live, the figures that DDP uses as a base for each school's projection may be slightly higher or lower than the actual reported enrollment for each school (for a detailed list of student accounting, see the Attendance Matrices in Section Three). Attendance matrices have been included to act as additional checks and balances for student accounting. Remember, these attendance matrices show where the students live (in what Attendance Area) based upon DDP's "address-matching" capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance) based upon data in the student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these matrices is essential to showing how the students used in the projections match-up to the District s records of enrollment for each school. The best way to plan for future schools is to know where the next group of students will be coming from, not necessarily which school they are currently attending. Please see Section Three for these Attendance Matrices and an explanation on how to read them. These matrices will help to give a full accounting of the Hart District students used in the projections by school of attendance and area of residence. March 14, 2014 Section Four Page 26

35 SY 2013/2014 Report Projection Date 10/2/2013 Actual Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 K 3,060 3, , , , , , , ,229 3, , , , , , , ,453 3, , , , , , , ,462 3, , , , , , , ,507 3, , , , , , , ,547 3, , , , , , , ,613 3, , , , , , , ,714 3, , , , , , , ,774 3, , , , , , , ,922 3, , , , , , , ,919 3, , , , , , , ,851 3, , , , , , , ,059 4, , , , , , ,209.8 Sub Totals: K-6 23,871 23, , , , , , ,537.8 CAST HART 7-8 6,833 6, , , , , , , ,751 15, , , , , , ,267.2 K-12 47,110 46, , , , , , ,285.0 Unmatched: K CAST HART K Out-of-Districts: K CAST HART K Totals: K-6 24,069 23, , , , , , ,735.8 CAST HART 7-8 6,862 6, , , , , , , ,828 15, , , , , , ,344.2 K-12 47,419 46, , , , , , ,594.0 Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 K-6 Annual Change: Castaic 7-8 Annual Change: Hart 7-8 Annual Change: 9-12 Annual Change: K-12 Annual Change: District-Wide Projection Summary NOTE: There are 21 Hart 7-8 students that live within the Castaic USD area and 7 Castaic USD 7-8 students that live in Hart's area. The above Hart enrollment figures INCLUDE the following: The Bowman Schoos (507), Learning Post HS (53), Sequoia Charter Schools (44), Academy of the Canyons (373), and Special Day Class (SDC) students (1,752 K-12) [which includes Hart students and students]. The above projections exclude 563 students with no K-12 grade designations (including 59 Hart students attending Transition Learning Center; 71 Pre-K students for Sulphur Springs ESD and 39 Pre-K students for Castaic USD), and 394 known Transitional Kindergarten (TK) students. March 14, 2014 Page 27

36 CHART 2 March 14, 2014 Section Four Page 28

37 CHART 3 March 14, 2014 Section Four Page 29

38 District-Wide Student Projection Trends At the district-wide level, the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District (the District) experienced a large amount of growth from the mid-1990 s to the mid-2000 s, both in residential development and student population. However, since 2008, the increase in new housing sales and the rate of growth in new students have both started to decline. All of the areas that show growth are directly linked to the new housing that continues to build in the Santa Clarita Valley. The projections contained within this report are based upon the best available information at the time it was prepared. The District must closely monitor the status of the upcoming large housing projects and update the projections annually to best gauge the need for additional schools. The following paragraphs refer to data found on the District-Wide Projection Summary on page 27, which is a compilation of all 355 study area projections. Chart 3, on page 29, shows both the historical 7-12 enrollment as well as the projected totals from As of Fall 2013 the Hart District s 7-8 population stood at 6,862 students, about 30 more than it had at the same time in 2012 (6,831 in 2012, 6,858 in 2011, 6,961 in 2010, 7, students in 2009 and 7,321 in 2008). There are six Hart District junior high schools which averages out to 1, students per site. The projections in this report have the District s 7-8 population declining for the next two years (6,625 by 2015) as smaller grade classes enter from the elementary schools. From 2016 to 2020 the middle school grades then incrementally increase as more new residential development kicks in. By Fall 2020, Hart s middle school population may once again be approaching 7, students. Focusing on only the 9-12 student counts, the Hart District began the Fall 2010 school year with 15,952 high school students living within its boundary and attending one of its schools. This marked the first decline in the District s high schools over the last two decades (see Chart 2 on page 28). In Fall 2011, the 9-12 student population rebounded slightly, rising up nearly 100 more students to reach a new high of 16,051, but in 2012 that figure dropped back down to 15,857 resident 9-12 students. In 2013, the 9-12 resident population dropped once again, by 106 students, to 15,751. It appears that the District s 9-12 student population might have reached its peak in Fall 2009 with a total count of 16,143 resident 9-12 students. Larger incoming 9 th grade class sizes coupled with the increase of students from new housing had been the main reasons for the growth that the Hart District had experienced at the high school level over the past twenty years. The downturn in the new housing construction about 6-7 years ago has finally started to reach the high school grades in recent years. By reading down the Actual Fall 2013 column on the District-Wide projections on page 27, you could see the bubble of students that had been entering the District s high schools for the past five years is now finally graduating out of the District. The largest grade classes among the 13 grades (K-12) are all in the high schools now. From this point forward, until the residential development picks up again, smaller grade classes are going to continue to enter the District s high schools. In fact, the projections show that the Hart District should see substantial declines in the 9-12 population for at least the next three to four years. The slowdown in the housing market has started to reveal certain declines occurring in portions of the District. This will be explored in greater detail in the next sections (attendance area analysis). Since Fall 2007, the Wm. S. Hart UHSD has had six comprehensive sites operating at full capacity. Currently, the Hart District houses 15, students (including students living outside of the District s boundaries). With six current high school sites, and taking out the special program students (1, students) that averages out to 2, students per high school in The Hart District is hoping to open a high school in the Castaic area (HS #7) as soon as Fall 2017 (9 th grade only to start) which would become a fully operational 9-12 school by Fall If the projections are accurate, by Fall 2019, with almost seven comprehensive high schools, the Hart District could have an average high school size of 2, students. March 14, 2014 Section Four Page 30

39 SECTION FIVE MIDDLE SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONS Middle School (7-8) Attendance Area Trends The projections for each of the junior high school boundaries over the next seven years can be found in the beginning of Appendix B (pages ) and Table 5 below shows a summary. The Hart District currently has six junior high schools (JHS). Each of the junior high schools has been paired with a particular high school (HS) and they have the same exact attendance boundaries. In 2009, the Hart School Board adopted new middle school and high school attendance boundaries that took effect beginning in Fall In Fall 2010 only the incoming 7 th graders followed the new attendance boundaries and all of the middle schools fully adopted the new boundaries starting the Fall 2011 school year. It will not be until Fall 2015 when all of the District s JHS and HS boundaries are completely in sync with each other again. One of the main purposes for making these boundary adjustments was to more evenly balance the current and future enrollment figures for the District s schools. According to Chart 2 on page 28, the Santa Clarita Valley saw its middle school population reach a peak of 8,111 in Fall 2008; the 7-8 student population has dropped the last four years. As of early October 2013, only two of the District s six existing junior high school attendance areas exceeded the District s ideal middle school capacity of 1,250 students (Arroyo Seco JHS had 1, students in its area and Sierra Vista JHS had 1,257). [see Table 5 below] La Mesa JHS had the next highest resident count of 1, students and the Placerita JHS attendance area contained the 4 th largest 7-8 student population of 1,105 as of early October Whereas Rancho Pico JHS has the District s smallest resident count for 7-8 students at 941. Table 5 Middle School - Current and Projected Counts by Attendance Area The map on the following page shows the new middle school attendance areas with current (Fall 2013) and projected student counts for each area for the years 2015, 2017 and The figures used on the map come directly from the numbers listed on Table 5 above and are referenced throughout the analysis section that follows. March 14, 2014 Section Five Page 31