banchero costa (shipbrokers)

Transcription

1 III Mare Forum Istanbul Container Shipping Outlook Enrico Paglia 22 March 211, Istanbul banchero costa research - research@bancosta.it

2 banchero costa group. head office branch/representative offices London Montecarlo..... Geneva Genoa Moscow Beijing Hong Kong. Singapore

3 Containership Fleet

4 Containership ( TEU) Age Profile - no. of units 1976 number of vessels (updated March 211) banchero costa (shipbrokers) 3 17 Trading Newbuildings

5 Containership ( TEU) Age Profile Pie - no. of units Orderbook/Trading 5.6% yrs (86-9) 6% 26-3 yrs (81-85) 5% 3 yrs + (< 81) 1% up to 5 yrs (blt 6-11) 31% 16-2 yrs (91-95) 14% yrs (96-) 24% 6-1 yrs (1-5) 19% (updated March 211)

6 Containership ( TEU) Age Profile - no. of units 1976 number of vessels (updated March 211) banchero costa (shipbrokers) Trading Newbuildings

7 Containership ( TEU) Age Profile Pie - no. of units Orderbook/Trading 14.2% 16-2 yrs (91-95) 8% yrs (86-9) 2% 26-3 yrs (81-85) 1% up to 5 yrs (blt 6-11) 44% yrs (96-) 16% 6-1 yrs (1-5) 29% (updated March 211)

8 Containership (8+ TEU) Age Profile - no. of units 1976 number of vessels updated: March 211 banchero costa (shipbrokers) 3 22 Scrapped or Total Loss Trading Newbuildings

9 Containership (8+ TEU) Age Profile Pie - no. of units Orderbook/Trading 73.2% 6-1 yrs (1-5) 15% yrs (96-) % up to 5 yrs (blt 6-11) 85% updated: March 211

10 Largest Containership Delivered in Given Year (TEU capacity of biggest ship delivered in each year) TEU Average Fleet Size: 31 teu Largest Containership Delivered

11 Containership Fleet Segmentation in year 2 (as percentage by TEU total) 35+ TEU 32% 1-5 TEU 3% TEU 8% TEU 26% TEU 31%

12 Containership Fleet Segmentation in year 25 (as percentage by TEU total) 35+ TEU 48% 1-5 TEU 2% TEU 6% TEU 18% TEU 26%

13 Containership Fleet Segmentation in year 21 (as percentage by TEU total) 1-5 TEU 1% TEU 3% TEU 14% TEU 19% 35+ TEU 63%

14 All Containership (5+ TEU) Total Fleet Size (fleet capacity in ' TEU, at end of year) 18, 16, 14, 12, ' TEU 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, +11.6% +13.5% +12.5% +1.1% +1.5% +13.9% +17.3% +14.4% +13.6% +7.6% +1.7% +11.9% +9.2% +3.9% Historical Fleet Size Pro jection ba sed o n Orderbook and no Scrapping Growth Y-o-Y

15 Global Container Trade (estimate in million TEU) TEU mln % +11% +13% +15% +1% +11% +12% +6% +14% +9% -1% (f) Co ntainer Trade Growth Y-o-Y

16 Top World Container Ports in 21 (total throughput in million TEU) % 1 15.% 1 1.% % 1.% 95. % 9. % % 8. % 75. % 7. % 65. % 6. % 55. % 5. % 45. % 4. % 35. % 3. % 25. % 2. % 15. % % 9.65% 12.44% 22.95% 19.49% 18.24% 22.5% 26.26% 1.13% 16.31% 13.27% 14.93% 1. % 5. %. % -5.% -1. % -15. % -2. % Shanghai Singapore Hong Kong Shenzhen LA/LB Busan Dubai Ningbo Guangzhou Qingdao Rotterdam Tianjin million TEU

17 Idle Containership Fleet (TEU capacity, breakdown by carrier and non-operating owner) million TEU /29 3/29 5/29 7/29 9/29 11/29 1/21 3/21 5/21 7/21 9/21 11/21 1/211 Carrier Owner Nonoperatin Owner

18 Containerships in Lay-up by Size Range (percentage of fleet) 2% 18% 16% 14% % of fleet 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% %

19 banchero costa (shipbrokers) Top Carriers by Operated Capacity (total capacity in million TEU, both owned and chartered) million TEU APM-Maersk MSC CMACGM Evergreen H-L APL CSAV COSCO Hanjin CSCL MOL NYK H. Sud OOCL K Line Zim YML HMM PIL UASC

20 Rates and Prices banchero costa (shipbrokers)

21 VHSS Container Index (General) Last 12 Months (weekly data) index Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11

22 VHSS Container Index (by Ship Size) Last 12 Months (weekly data) 3, 25, 2, index 15, 1, 5, Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Jan 211 Feb 211 Type 11 Type 17 Type 25 Type 27 Type 35 Type 425 Mar 211

23 1, TEU Containership Newbuilding Prices (estimated monthly avg, in USD mln) usd mln /2 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26 12/27 12/28 12/29 12/21 1, TEU Newbuilding Price

24 1, TEU Containership 5 Years Old Secondhand Prices (estimated monthly avg, in USD mln) usd mln /2 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26 12/27 12/28 12/29 12/21 1, TEU 5YO Secondhand Price

25 1, TEU Containership 1-Year Timecharter Rates (estimated monthly averages, in usd/day) 2, 18, 16, 14, usd/day 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 12/2 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26 12/27 12/28 12/29 12/21 1, TEU Timecharter Rates

26 3,5 TEU Containership Newbuilding Prices (estimated monthly avg, in USD mln) usd mln /2 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26 12/27 12/28 12/29 12/21 3,5 TEU Newbuilding Price

27 3,5 TEU Containership 5 Years Old Secondhand Prices (estimated monthly avg, in USD mln) usd mln /2 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26 12/27 12/28 12/29 12/21 3,5 TEU 5YO Secondhand Price

28 3,5 TEU Containership 1-Year Timecharter Rates (estimated monthly averages, in usd/day) 45, 4, 35, 3, usd/day 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 12/2 12/21 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26 12/27 12/28 12/29 12/21 3,5 TEU Timecharter Rates

29 35 All Containership (5+ TEU) New Order Vs. Demo Activity 3 25 ' TEU New Orders Demolition

30 banchero costa head office - genoa via pammatone, genoa (italy) phone: dry c. - cape/pmx capespmx@bancosta.it derivatives derivatives@bancosta.it dry c. - handy handy@bancosta.it research research@bancosta.it dry c. - operating dryoper@bancosta.it lng projects gas@bancosta.it tankers tanker@bancosta.it agency bcagy@bcagy.it containers containers@bancosta.it insurance insurance@bancostains.it s&p salepurchase@bancosta.it p&i main.ge@bseag.it ship finance financial@bancosta.it accounting account@bcaccount.it bancosta monaco bancosta geneva bancosta uk bancosta moscow monte carlo geneva london moscow phone: phone: phone: phone: info@bancosta-monaco.com info@bancosta.ch info@bancosta.co.uk tanker@bancosta.it bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente hong kong singapore beijing phone: phone: phone: bancosta.oriente@bancosta.com.hk bancosta.oriente@bancosta.com.hk capespmx@bancosta.it