Finnish Sawmills Owners Association. Global Megatrends in Container shipping

Transcription

1 Finnish Sawmills Owners Association Global Megatrends in Container shipping

2 A proud heritage Established in 1871 by a consortium of eleven Hamburg merchants, we have developed from a conventional shipping company into an internationally operating transport and logistics organization. Today, the Hamburg Süd Group ranks among the 10 major providers of worldwide ocean transport and is well-known for individual logistics solutions from a single source and tailored to customers needs. Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe, Rauma, 19 Sep

3 Agenda Market Environment & Fundamentals Carriers, Trends & Development Finnish Market Overview Summary & Conclusions 3

4 Development of GDP Growth Projections F (IMF) Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook October

5 Growth in Container Transport / World Economic Growth F (in %) Container Transport Growth World Economic Growth 6,5 5,1 4,7 5,0 3,7 3,4 3,2 3,5 3,5 3,6 3,6 3,7 2,5 1, F 2018F Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor December 2017; Int. Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook December

6 Cellular Fleet Growth vs. Global Throughput F (in %) in m TEU % Annual Cellular Capacity Growth Fleet Capacity % Global Throughput Growth in % ,1 22,3 23, ,0 5,6 6,2 6,7 7,3 8,3 9,6 11,0 12,4 13,1 14,3 15,4 16,3 17,3 18,4 20,0 20, F2018F2019F -10 Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor February

7 F 2018F 2019F 2020F Global Container Throughput vs. GDP Growth (TEU-to-GDP Multiplier) 20% 15% Container throughput growth % Global GDP growth % GDP multiplier % 4 5% 3 0% 2-5% Avg. Multiplier: Avg. Multiplier: Avg. Multiplier: F: % 0 Source: Alphaliner Newsletter No

8 Dynamar Trade Growth FY 2017 vs (in %) 11,0% Export Growth FY 17 vs. 16 Import Growth FY 17 vs. 16 8,6% 7,2% 7,1% 7,7% 5,5% 4,1% 5,9% 4,4% 3,8% 5,2% 4,6% Average Growth 4,7% 4,7% Ø 5,1% 1,9% 0,4% Far East Europe North America Australasia Middle East/ISC Africa, Sub Sahara Latin America Intra- Regional Source: Dynaliner Weekly

9 Development of SCFI (ex Shanghai) last 52 weeks USD / TEU SCFI Europe South America EC US West Coast Australia / New Zealand South Africa Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2017 Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, week 09 9

10 Development of SCFI (ex Shanghai) last 52 weeks USD/TEU Europe South America EC US West Coast SCFI Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2017 Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, week 09 10

11 Bunker Price Development vs. SCFI since 01/2016 (indexed) IFO 380 Rotterdam, MGO Rotterdam 300% 250% IFO Rotterdam 200% MGO Rotterdam 150% 100% SCFI 50% 0% Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Source: Platts Oilgram Bunkerwire, Shanghai Shipping Exchange 11

12 USD / t Bunker Price Development since 01/2016 IFO 380 Rotterdam, MGO Rotterdam March 2018 MGO 578 USD/t 500 MGO Rotterdam IFO Rotterdam 07 March 2018 IFO 366 USD/t Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Source: Platts Oilgram Bunkerwire 12

13 m TEU Evolution of Idle Containership Fleet ,8 1,7 1,6 11,7% 572 vessels 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 NOO 0,9 0,8 NOO 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,9% 65 vessels 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 Liner Liner 0,0 Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: AXS-Alphaliner Newsletter No. 7,

14 Agenda Market Environment & Fundamentals Carriers, Trends & Development Finish Market Overview Summary & Conclusions 14

15 Development of Newbuilding Orders and Deliveries* F 3 Orders (in m TEU) Deliveries (in m TEU) 2,3 2 NOO 1,7 1,9 1,7 2 1,4 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,2 1,5 1 1,1 1,1 0,9 0,9 0,7 0,7 1 Liner 0,3 0,3 0,3-0, F 2018F 2019F *Forecast Figures are based on the current orderbook. Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor February

16 Capacity in m TEU Carrier Consolidation Outlook 2018* 4,5 4,0 3,5 Orderbook Existing Fleet 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Maersk MSC COSCO CMA Hapag- Ocean Evergreen Yang / HSDG / OOCL CGM Lloyd / Network Ming UASC Express (3J) *The proposed transactions are subject to regulatory approvals PIL ZIM HMM Wan Hai X-Press Feeders QASC KMTC SITC Source: Alphaliner Top 100, 6th March

17 Average operating margin Container Carrier* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 *Average of: CMA CGM (incl. APL to 2Q 2016), CSCL (until 1Q 2016), EMC, Hanjin (until Q2 2016), Hapag-Lloyd (incl. CSAV until 2014), HMM, KL, Maersk, MOL, NYK, WHL, YML, ZIM Source: AXS Alphaliner Newsletter No 48, 2017; Annual Reports 17

18 Global schedule reliability Top 20 (+/- one day) Global Top 20 ranking 2017 (Jan-Dec) Wan Hai Hamburg Sud Evergreen HMM COSCO OOCL CMA CGM MSC Maersk Line APL ZIM Hapag Lloyd UASC NYK K Line PIL MOL Yang Ming 80% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Source: SeaIntel 18

19 Agenda Market Environment & Fundamentals Carriers, Trends & Development Finish Market Overview Summary & Conclusions 19

20 Finnish Market Overview (Seabury) Focus on East Med & Far East 20

21 Agenda Market Environment & Fundamentals Carriers, Trends & Development Finish Market Overview Summary & Conclusions 21

22 Summary & conclusions Long poor economical development has created a waive of mergers within the industry We will see fewer and stronger players within global containers markets More healthy results will enable carriers to focus the future investments more to desperately needed digitalization and stabilize the balance sheet. Block Chain Geopolitical aspect. National carriers Ship size increasing both deep-sea and short sea (Feeder) Decreasing number of ports Keep Finland interesting market for the carriers 22

23 Disclaimer All rights reserved, especially those of duplication and distribution as well as translation. No part of the contents is allowed to be reproduced in any form without written consent of Hamburg Südamerikanische Dampfschifffahrts-Gesellschaft KG; nor may it be processed, reproduced or distributed using electronic systems Hamburg Süd