Assessing how using a microsimulator in an integrated land use / transportation model affects urban growth simulations
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1 Assessing hw using a micrsimulatr in an integrated land use / transprtatin mdel affects urban grwth simulatins Austin Try, University f Vermnt Adel Sadek, SUNY Buffal Resurce Systems Grup Chittenden Cunty RPC
2 Assessing hw integratin f a traffic ruter and micrsimulatr int a land use / transprtatin mdel affects urban grwth simulatins Objectives Integrated Mdel Cmpnents Land-Use Mdel in UrbanSim Travel Mdel in TransCAD Micrsimulatr in TRANSIMS Pythn Wrapper Scripts Mdel Integratin Withut traffic micrsimulatin With traffic micrsimulatin Cmparisn f Outputs
3 Objectives T develp a lng-range planning mdel framewrk that integrates the interactins f husehlds, emplyers, develpers, and transprtatin planners T implement this framewrk in Chittenden Cunty, Vermnt t cmpare lng-range planning scenaris T explre the added value f increased cmplexity and disaggregatin
4 Integrated Mdel Cmpnents Mdel Cmpnents Develped fr Chittenden Cunty: Land use mdel in UrbanSim develped by Austin Try at the UVM Spatial Analysis Lab Fur-step travel demand mdel in TransCAD - develped by the Chittenden Cunty Reginal Planning Cmmissin (CCRPC) Traffic micrsimulatr in TRANSIMS - develped by Adel Sadek, nw at SUNY Buffal Mdel-integratin scripts in Pythn develped by Resurce Systems Grup f White River Junctin, Vermnt UrbanSim Land-Use Frecast xx Travel-Demand Estimatin Ruting and Traffic Assignment TransCAD X X TRANSIMS xx xx
5 UrbanSim Land-Use Mdel Requires ppulatin and emplyment frecasts as cntrl ttals fr a target year fr a given regin Uses synthetic ppulatins f husehlds but actual ppulatins f cmmercial emplyment Simulates husehld, emplyment and real-estate develpment decisins Agent-based fr husehld and emplyment lcatin decisins Grid-based fr real estate develpment decisins
6 UrbanSim Land-Use Mdel Grid_ID:23674 Grid_ID:23674 Husehlds: HSHLD_ID: 23 9 Nn-residential_sq_ft: AGE_OF_HEAD: 42 30,000 Land_value: INCOME: $65, ,000 Year_built: Wrkers: Plan_type: KIDS: 3 4 %_water: CARS: 4 14 %_wetland: 4 Grid_ID: %_rad: 3 Emplyment_ID: 427 Sectr: 2 Emplyees: 135
7 UrbanSim Land-Use Mdel Decisins are based n: Land Price Mbility and Transitin Lcatin Chice Real Estate Develpment Residential Land Share Accessibility Easily accessible lcatins are mre attractive Simulates Grwth and Mvement
8 UrbanSim Land-Use Mdel Standard Outputs Husehlds Ppulatin Cmmercial square-ftage by emplyment sectr Emplyment (jbs) by sectr Land value Vacancy rates Output Scale Spatial scale Grid cell TAZ Twn Tempral scale 5, 10, 20, 40 years int the future
9 Travel-Demand Mdel in TransCAD Develped by RSG, Inc fr the CCMPO (nw the CCRPC) 4-step mdel: trip generatin, trip distributin, mde split and traffic assignment Uses 335 internal Traffic Analysis Znes (TAZs) plus 17 external znes Calibrated against bserved AM and PM peak traffic cunts Includes peak spreading and intersectin delay Has been updated t an hurly daily mdel
10 TRANSIMS Traffic Micrsimulatr TRANSIMS includes fur sub-mdules: (1) Synthetic Ppulatin Generatr; (2) Activity Generatr; (3) Ruter; and (4) Micr-simulatr Chittenden Cunty implementatin develped by Adel Sadek and RSG Used TransimsNet fr translating multi-mdel link-nde databases frm 4-step mdel, fr estimating traffic cntrl characteristics, fr building activity lcatins (where trips start/end), and fr generating netwrk parameters like lane cnnectivity definitins and signal timing Enhanced netwrk integrity manually during calibratin Extracted PM-peak trip tables frm 4-step mdel, expanded them t the full day using time-f-day distributin factrs Calibrated against bserved AM- and PM-peak traffic cunts
11 Mdel Integratin Withut micrsimulatr With micrsimulatr Land-Use Frecast Travel-Demand Estimatin Ruting and Traffic Assignment UrbanSim xx TransCAD X X TRANSIMS xx xx
12 Withut Micrsimulatr UrbanSim takes accessibilities (based n travel time) frm TransCAD by TAZ t influence lcatin chice TransCAD receives land-use infrmatin frm UrbanSim grid cells and summarizes it t the TAZ level Pythn shell scripts r wrappers were created t pass data between the tw platfrms Accessibilities UrbanSim TransCAD Husehlds Emplyment
13 Withut Micrsimulatr Base year is 1990 Base land-use used t estimate travel in base-year UrbanSim land-use mdel uses travel accessibility in yearly time-steps t generate land-use frecasts fr every year TransCAD travel mdel is fed updated husehlds and emplyment every 5 years Repeats until the final frecast year is reached Land-Use Outputs Travel Outputs 1990 Base Base
14 Withut Micrsimulatr Base year is 1990 Base land-use used t estimate travel in base-year UrbanSim land-use mdel uses travel accessibility in yearly time-steps t generate land-use frecasts fr every year TransCAD travel mdel is fed updated husehlds and emplyment every 5 years Repeats until the final frecast year is reached Land-Use Outputs Travel Outputs 1990 Base Base TransCAD
15 Withut Micrsimulatr Base year is 1990 Base land-use used t estimate travel in base-year UrbanSim land-use mdel uses travel accessibility in yearly time-steps t generate land-use frecasts fr every year TransCAD travel mdel is fed updated husehlds and emplyment every 5 years Repeats until the final frecast year is reached Land-Use Outputs Travel Outputs 1990 Base Base TransCAD 1991 UrbanSim 1992 UrbanSim 1993 UrbanSim 1994 UrbanSim 1995 UrbanSim
16 Withut Micrsimulatr Base year is 1990 Base land-use used t estimate travel in base-year UrbanSim land-use mdel uses travel accessibility in yearly time-steps t generate land-use frecasts fr every year TransCAD travel mdel is fed updated husehlds and emplyment every 5 years Repeats until the final frecast year is reached Land-Use Outputs Travel Outputs 1990 Base Base TransCAD 1991 UrbanSim 1992 UrbanSim 1993 UrbanSim 1994 UrbanSim 1995 UrbanSim TransCAD 1996 UrbanSim 1997 UrbanSim 1998 UrbanSim 1999 UrbanSim 2000 UrbanSim TransCAD 2001 UrbanSim
17 Withut Micrsimulatr Base year is 1990 Base land-use used t estimate travel in base-year UrbanSim land-use mdel uses travel accessibility in yearly time-steps t generate land-use frecasts fr every year TransCAD travel mdel is fed updated husehlds and emplyment every 5 years Repeats until the final frecast year is reached Land-Use Outputs Travel Outputs 1990 Base Base TransCAD 1991 UrbanSim 1992 UrbanSim 1993 UrbanSim 1994 UrbanSim 1995 UrbanSim TransCAD 1996 UrbanSim 1997 UrbanSim 1998 UrbanSim 1999 UrbanSim 2000 UrbanSim TransCAD 2001 UrbanSim 2025 UrbanSim TransCAD 2026 UrbanSim 2027 UrbanSim 2028 UrbanSim 2029 UrbanSim 2030 Cntrl TransCAD
18 With Micrsimulatr Generates trip lists fr input t the TRANSIMS Ruter using the PM-peak trip matrices utput frm TransCAD. Updates the travel accessibility fr input t UrbanSim using travel times generated by the TRANSIMS Micrsimulatr
19 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
20 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
21 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
22 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
23 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
24 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
25 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
26 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
27 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
28 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Residential Units By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
29 Sample f Land-Use Outputs Cmmercial Square Ftage By Grid Cell In 5-Year Time-Steps
30 Cmparisn f Outputs Between A - Integrated Mdel withut the Micrsimulatr B - Integrated Mdel with the Micrsimulatr
31 Travel Speeds Link-by-link travel speeds: Integrated Mdel withut the Micrsimulatr (A) Integrated Mdel with the Micrsimulatr (B) The effect f TRANSIMS carfllwing speed functin Assumes cars accelerate until they are fllwing Allws vehicles t exceed speed limits significantly
32 Predicted Husehld Grwth Predicted husehld grwth: Integrated Mdel withut the Micrsimulatr (A) Integrated Mdel with the Micrsimulatr (B) Cntrl Ttals: 1990: 52,878 husehlds 2030: 86,103 husehlds Srted by ttal grwth between 1990 and 2030 The effect f accessibilities created by TRANSIMS carfllwing speed functin 2030 Twn 1990 B A % Diff. Buels Gre % Huntingtn 616 2,554 2, % Westfrd 637 2,408 2, % Charltte 1,331 4,730 4, % Underhill 1,013 3,406 3, % Hinesburg 1,476 4,717 4, % Bltn 526 1,749 1, % Richmnd 1,390 4,297 4, % Jerich 1,500 4,652 4, % Clchester 5,901 11,764 11, % St. Gerge % Willistn 1,882 3,326 3, % Miltn 3,014 5,119 5, % Shelburne 2,356 3,649 3, % Essex 6,317 8,101 8, % S. Burlingtn 5,413 5,568 5, % Burlingtn 16,280 16,498 16, % Winski 2,933 2,933 2, %
33 Predicted Cmmercial Grwth Predicted cmmercial grwth (millins f sf): Integrated Mdel withut the Micrsimulatr (A) Integrated Mdel with the Micrsimulatr (B) Cntrl Ttals: 1990: 27.0 millin sf 2030: 44.6 millin sf Srted by ttal grwth between 1990 and 2030 The effect f accessibilities created by TRANSIMS are still apparent 2030 Twn 1990 B A % Diff. Huntingtn % Jerich % St. Gerge % Charltte % Underhill % Hinesburg % Richmnd % Westfrd % Bltn % Miltn % Clchester % Shelburne % Essex % Willistn % S. Burlingtn % Burlingtn % Winski % Buels Gre 0.0%
34 Thank Yu! Questins?
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