Global Graphic Paper Outlook
|
|
- Joan Heath
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Global Graphic Paper Outlook Declining Demand and Strong Dollar Spark Trade Issues North American Conference Seaport Hotel, Boston October 16 18, 2017 John Maine Vice President, World Graphic Paper
2 John Maine VP Global Graphic Papers Co Founder of Resource Information Systems, Inc. With RISI for 38 years Developed RISI P&W models Works with more than 200 graphic paper clients worldwide Assisted by local economists in RISI regional offices Directs numerous single and multi client studies on graphic paper 2
3 Some Definitions Graphic Paper Newsprint Uncoated Mechanical (Ume) Directories, paperback books, newspaper inserts, low end magazines/catalogs Uncoated Woodfree/Freesheet (UWF or UFS) Office copy paper, envelopes, offset printing, direct mail, books, forms, carbonless, tablets, stationery, specialties Coated Mechanical (Cme) Magazines, catalogs, newspaper inserts Coated Woodfree/Freesheet (CWF or CFS) High end magazines and catalogs, commercial printing, brochures, photo printing, menus, posters, displays, direct mail Tonnes = metric ton (2,205 lbs); tons = short ton (2,000 lbs) 3
4 4
5 Global Demand for Printing & Writing Papers Started Declining in 2008, Newsprint in Million Tonnes P&W Demand Newsprint Demand (Right Scale)
6 Global P&W Demand Declining Steadily, with the Largest Hit in the Mechanical Grades Percentage Change in Global Demand by Grade Coated Freesheet Coated Mechanical Uncoated Freesheet Uncoated Mechanical Printing & Writing Average -0.7% -1.1% -1.4% -3.4% -3.7% -2.1% -3.3% -6.1% -3.5% -5.4% -5.6% -4.8% -0.2% +0.1% -0.9% -0.7% -0.8% -0.5% -7.4% -0.7% -3.9% -5.8% -2.3% -4.0% -1.7% -1.1% -1.7% -2.6% -2.2% -1.9% 6
7 P&W Paper Demand Forecast for Shows Slow Decline, but Varies by Region Thousand Tonnes, Percent per Year 835 ( 2.4%) 1,554 ( 4.0%) 163 (1.4%) 4 (0.0%) 26 (0.6%) 39 (0.4%) 72 (1.5%) 37 ( 1.5%) Two year total growth in tonnes (Two year average % change) 7 Global 2,100 ( 1.1%) 7
8 Newsprint Demand Declining Across the Globe Thousand Tonnes, Percent per Year, ( 7.2%) 606 ( 5.6%) 88 ( 3.2%) 749 ( 3.7%) 13 ( 2.3%) 130 ( 1.7%) 14 ( 1.3%) 39 ( 4.8%) 2 year total growth in tonnes (2 year average % change) 8 Global: 2,112 ( 4.7%) 8
9 North American P&W Demand Declining at Steady Pace of % for the Last Three Years Apparent Consumption, Thousand Tonnes, Seasonally Adjusted Coated Freesheet Coated Mechanical Uncoated Freesheet Uncoated Mechanical ,190 2,785 8,344 3,272 % Change 2.8% 10.7% 0.2% 11.6% ,977 2,608 8,010 3,072 % Change 5.1% 6.4% 4.0% 6.1% RISI 8 Months % 3.5% 6.2% 11.2% RISI Forecast for 2017 RISI Forecast for % 2.4% 4.8% 4.3% 5.1% 1.8% 9.1% 3.1% 9
10 North American Newsprint Market Accelerating Downward But market in second half of 2017 getting tight due to capacity shuts, allowing for some recovery in price Demand Thousand Tonnes Newspapers Printers Total Operating Rate Prices $/Tonne, 45 gsm , ,658 $575 % Change 12.7% 2.4% 10.1% 92% 10.8% , ,411 $597 % Change 8.3% 2.5% 6.7% 92% +3.9% 8 Months % +3.9% 11.3% 91% +4.2% Forecast for 2017 Forecast for % 7.9% 93% 94% 10
11 11
12 First half 2017 total printed magazine circulation was up 1.2%! Subscriptions flat, single copy down 16%, non paid up 16% due to 44% jump in Costco connection to 12.6 million 420 6% Circulation Per Issue: Millions Circulation % Change (R) 1.1% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: Alliance for Audited Media & RISI; includes consumer, farm, religious, paid & verified and analyzed nonpaid, excludes digital
13 Magazines Distributed for Single Copy Sales Are the Primary Source of Magazine Circulation Declines, and Fell 9.7% in 2016 and 4.9% in the First Quarter of 2017 Millions of Copies Distributed % % % % % Unit Draw %chya (R) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Source: Magnet. Note that actual copies sold is only about 30% of copies distributed; data are for North America
14 The Decline in Magazine Ad Pages Is the Primary Factor Driving Down Paper Use Ad pages dropped 10.7% in 2016; horrible start to 2017 with pages down more than 15% in first half; worst performance in ad pages since the Great Recession 5.0% Percentage Change in PIB Magazine Ad Pages 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Annual % % % % % 2013Q1 2014Q1 2017Q1 2016Q1 2015Q1 %Ch Year Ago 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Includes Sunday magazines and the effect of discontinued print editions 30.0% 14
15 US Catalog Mailing Declined Only 2.1% in 2016, but 2017 Started Weak with 5.7% Drop in the First Half 5% %Ch Year Ago Percentage Change in Catalogs Mailed 0% 5% 10% 15% 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 Annual % % % % % 2017Q1 20% 15
16 US Postal Mail Volumes Marketing mail declining moderately, but first half of 2017 down 3.5% (USPS Postal YTD boosted by increase from election in Q4 2016) USPS Forecast Pieces of Mail 2017 First Class -2.5% Marketing Mail +0.4% Periodicals -3.6% Total Mail -0.6% USPS Actual Postal Q YTD (Calendar Q2 2017) First Class -4.0% Marketing Mail -1.8% Periodicals -4.9% Total Mail -2.9% 16 Billion Pieces First Class Marketing Mail Periodicals (R) 2017* Postal Fiscal Years * 2017=USPS forecast from operating plan
17 Real Dollar Sales for US Commercial Printing Horrible start to 2017, helping to drive down paper demand Million Real 2003$ per Month 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 Recession Annual Growth % % % % % 2017 (6 mo) 7.1% 5,
18 Unit Sales of Printed Books Rose for the Third Year in a Row, Rising 3.3% in % 670 Unit Sales %ch (Right) 3.0% % % % % % % Source: Nielsen Bookscan Unit Sales (Thousands) 18 18
19 AAM Quarterly Print Newspaper Circulation Data US print newspaper circulation abysmal in first quarter of 2017, when demand from newspapers dropped 16% year over year Percent Change from Same Period Previous Year Year-over-Year Change in US Print Newspaper Circulation 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% Old Series New Quarterly Series CHYA -10% Source: AAM, RISI 19 19
20 Advertising Trends Accelerating Down Newspaper advertising still sinking by double digits; includes non print advertising revenues 0% Year-over-Year Change in US Newspaper Advertising Revenues -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Print Ad Revenues Reported by NAA -30% Total Ad Revenues from Sample of Publishers -35% Source: NAA, RISI, quarterly financial reports of public newspaper publishers
21 21
22 Recent Weakness in the Dollar Is Eroding Import Competitiveness Foreign Currency per US Dollar US Mills Have Advantage Zone of similar delivered costs for US/European mills European and Other Offshore Mills Have Advantage Zone of similar delivered costs for US/Canadian mills Canadian Dollar Euro
23 The Strong Dollar Makes US Markets Attractive, But the Gap Is Closing $250 Difference Between Paper Prices in the USA vs Europe LWC 40 lb. Cut Size Copy Paper Newsprint $150 US Dollars per Ton $50 $ $150 $250 23
24 Producers in the USA and Other Countries in Europe and Asia Resorting to Tariff Protection to Stem the Tide of Imports Anti dumping duties (ADD) For imports dumped into the US market at prices lower than the importer s home market Countervailing duties (CVD) Adjusts for government subsidies received by the importer 24
25 Key Graphic Paper Tariffs into the USA Coated Freesheet in Sheets from China and Indonesia In place since 2010 High CVD and ADD tariffs block imports, but only from specific mills and countries Other imports filled the gap along with increased sheeting in the USA SC Ume from Canada Ranges from 0% to 20% Prompted development and sale of non SC grades Increase in imports from Europe filled the gap Uncoated Freesheet Cut Size Paper Newsprint and Certain Other Ume from Canada In process 25
26 Tariffs on Imports of Cut Size Copy Paper to USA Range from 8% to 326% ADD CVD Combined Australia Paper 222% 222% Suzano 22% 22% Portucel 8% 8% APRIL Indonesia 2% 21% 23% APP Indonesia 17% 109% 126% Asia Symbol (China) 84% 7% 91% APP China 149% 7% 156% UPM China 149% 177% 326% Sun Paper China 149% 177% 326% Effect of tariff is waning as US operating rates decline and imports from non tariff countries explode At best, the tariff prevented a further explosive surge in imports, but did not make the imports go away 26
27 US Imports of Cut Size Copy Paper from Five Tariff Target Countries Imports, Thousand Tonnes Portugal Indonesia China/Hong Kong Brazil Australia Five Country Import Share 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Import Share of Demand * Estimated from six months of actual data 27
28 US Imports of Cut Size Copy Paper from Non Tariff Target Countries Imports, Thousand Tonnes All Others Israel Germany Finland Thailand France Import Share 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Import Share of Demand * Estimated from six months of actual data 28
29 Proposed Tariff on Newsprint and Certain Other Uncoated Mechanical Paper from Canada Could Have Big Impact on US Availability and Prices Estimated US Market Share in 2017 Newsprint SC Ume Directory Ume Other Ume US Domestic 43% 22% 0% 40% Canada 60% 57% 98% 58% Europe 0% 21% 2% 2% Note: Market shares for Other Ume are estimated after the shut of two PMs at Calhoun in September
30 30
31 Announced Net Changes in World Graphic Paper Capacity, Thousand Tonnes CFS Cme Uwf Ume News Graphic Asia 178 1, Europe ,835 Latin America North America ,113 2,195 Middle East Global ,567 1,165 2,
32 Uncoated Woodfree Operating Rates Asia remains oversupplied, Brazil struggling due to weak demand but showing some improvement in 2016/2017, while operating rates in North America are sliding due to lack of capacity shuts 97% 95% 93% 91% N. America W. Europe Asia Brazil 89% 87% 85% 83%
33 Coated Woodfree Operating Rates Operating rates have been dropping globally due to weak demand, but massive shuts in US threaten availability 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% N. America W. Europe Asia
34 Coated Mechanical Operating Rates North America staying tight due to capacity shuts 99% 97% 95% 93% 91% 89% 87% 85% 83% 81% 79% 77% 75% N. America W. Europe Asia
35 Uncoated Mechanical Operating Rates Accelerating capacity shuts will tighten the market 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% N. America W. Europe
36 Newsprint Operating Rates Moving in a narrow range since the recession as shuts offset large decline in demand 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% N. America W. Europe Asia
37 Industry Financial Outlook 37
38 North American Mill Cash Costs to Rise 1 2% in 2017 and 2018 Ending a five year trend of declining costs 10% 5% Percentage Change in Mill Cash Costs in US Dollars for Average of All Existing North American Mills UFS Cut Size CFS Rolls Ume 0% % 10% Excludes tariff costs for Canadian mills, which may offset cost decline in
39 20 lb/75 gsm Copy Paper Prices Can the US maintain a premium in prices? Currency shifts have helped drive up Brazilian prices $1,400 4,500 $1,300 4,000 US Dollars per Tonne $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 USA Europe Brazil in USD/Tonne Brazil in BRL/Tonne (R) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 BRL per Tonne 39
40 US Publishing Paper Prices Prices still trending down, but recovery predicted for late 2017 to 2019 based on rising costs and mill shuts US$/cwt $54 $50 $46 $42 SC A Ctd. No lb Ctd. No lb. Unc. Offset 50 lb. $38 $
41 US Newsprint Prices Recovery of 2016 stalled in 2017, but weaker dollar, capacity shuts and rising costs are pushing on the door, and could be followed by tariffs in 2018 $850 $800 US 45 gsm Newsprint Prices US Dollars per Tonne $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 US East US West
42 Price to Mill Cash Cost Margins Average for all existing North American mills Price/Mill Cash Costs UFS Copy Paper Ume SC A Newsprint CFS 60 lb. rolls Cme/LWC 40 lb SC margin is before impact of tariff on Canadian mills 42
43 Thank you for your attention! For more information: World Graphic Paper 5 Year Forecast Global Cut Size Uncoated Freesheet Study China s Influence on World Graphic Paper Markets in the Coming Decade 43
Global Graphic Paper Outlook
Global Graphic Paper Outlook Declining Demand and Strong Dollar Spark Trade Issues Latin American Conference Renaissance Hotel, São Paulo August 14 17, 2017 John Maine Vice President, World Graphic Paper
More informationGlobal Graphic Paper Market Outlook
Global Graphic Paper Market Outlook Trade Battles, Rising Costs, Declining Demand RISI Latin American Conference São Paulo, Brazil August 2018 John Maine VP, Global Graphic Paper Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc.
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook With a focus on the Asian market RISI Asian Conference May 2017 Ken Waghorne VP, Global Packaging Ken Waghorne VP Global Packaging kwaghorne@risi.com One of the original Resource
More informationOutlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets
Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets Latin American Conference August 2016 Kurt Schaefer VP, Fiber Hannah Zhao Senior Economist, Recovered Paper Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook With a focus on the European market RISI European Conference March 2017 Gleb Sinavskis Associate Economist, European Paper Packaging Gleb Sinavskis Associate Economist, European
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper
More informationOutlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry
Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry North American Conference October 2017 David Fortin Director, Wood Products Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Quick Bio Master s
More informationFastmarkets RISI Global Boxboard Outlook
Fastmarkets RISI Global Boxboard Outlook Forces shaping the boxboard industry 1 At the top of the business cycle? 2017 was a strong year, 2018 not so much Deceleration in the global economy Boxboard demand
More informationWorld supply and demand of tilapia
World supply and demand of tilapia by Helga Josupeit FAO Rome, October 2010 World tilapia production World tilapia production has been booming during the last decade, with output doubling from 830000 tonnes
More informationOutlook for the World Paper Grade Pulp Market
Outlook for the World Paper Grade Pulp Market Amsterdam, Netherlands March 2017 Kurt Schaefer Vice President, Fiber For Further Details and Analysis: World Pulp & Recovered Paper 5-Year and 15-Year Forecasts
More informationAirlines, the economy and air transport demand
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;
More informationTrade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies
Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic
More informationGlobal Boxboard Market Review
Global Boxboard Market Review Sailing In A World Of Volatility And Uncertainty European Conference March 2018 Alejandro Mata Senior Economist, European Forest Products Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationSteel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009
Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar
More informationMarket Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017
Market Report Series Oil 2017 SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace 2.0 Global oil demand growth 2014-2022 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
More informationPaul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009
Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies
More informationGlobal Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009
Global Construction Outlook: Short-term term Pain, Long-term Gain Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 What This Means for You The world is set to be hit this year with
More informationU.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
More informationGulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond
Gulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond Houston, May 15, 2017 Mario.Moreno@ihsmarkit.com Agenda Gulf coast imports: top sourcing regions, fastest growing commodities, demand drivers and outlook.
More informationSteel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert
Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.
More informationCargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018
Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
More information2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices
2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices Methodology 28 countries and 10 US cities Airlines, Hotel, Rental Car Forecast in USD, guidelines on currency exchange forecast Forecast projections
More informationMajor Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry
Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA
More informationPREVISIONS PUBLICITAIRES MONDIALES
PREVISIONS PUBLICITAIRES MONDIALES VINCENT.LETANG@MAGNAGLOBAL.COM ABOUT MAGNA Leader in advertising market research, since 1950. Connected to hundreds of media buyers worldwide. 40 reports a year on net
More informationJ.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference November 15, 2016
J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference November 15, 2016 Max Messmer Chairman and CEO Keith Waddell Vice Chairman, President and CFO Company Background Originated in 1948 as boutique financial
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationINSTITUTIONAL PRESENTATION
INSTITUTIONAL PRESENTATION 2Q16 KLBN11 DEZEMBRO DE 2015 KLBN11 / KLBAY DISCLAIMER The statements contained in this presentation related to the business outlook, operating and financial projections, and
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs
More informationOpportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?
Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation
More informationThe Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast. Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist
The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist silver@naaa.com Agenda Economic conditions Economic outlook Light vehicle sales Light vehicle sales outlook NAAA 2015 Annual
More informationOutlook for growth, traffic and airline profits
Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 50 = no change in output expected Widespread
More informationFishery. Harvesting. Snow Crab Professional Fish Harvesters Certification Board
Fishery T he Newfoundland and Labrador fishery faced several challenges in 8, including continued competition from low-cost producers, as well as high fuel costs and unfavourable exchange rates for most
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
More informationFrom Recession to Recovery
From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
More informationAirline industry outlook 2019
Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE
More informationPotash Outlook. Kevin Stone Natural Resources Canada. TFI Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida November 16, 2016
1 Potash Outlook Kevin Stone Natural Resources Canada TFI Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida November 16, 2016 2 Outline Historical Consumption and Supply Outlook for
More informationPresentation from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017
Presentation from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017 United States Department of Agriculture 93 rd Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum A New Horizon: The Future of Agriculture February 23-24, 2017
More informationRISI North American Outlook
RISI North American Outlook Containerboard and Boxboard North American Conference October 2018 Ken Waghorne VP, Global Packaging A Renaissance for the North American Containerboard and Boxboard Markets
More informationThe Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
More informationUS imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly
US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization
More informationThe World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade
More informationConstruction Market Opportunities and Risks
Construction Market Opportunities and Risks Construction Teleconference 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon June 3, 2004 Copyright 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Speakers Global Construction Outlook Chris Holling, Executive
More informationGlobal growth forecasts Key countries/regions,
Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area
More informationAgriculture Outlook. Rich Pottorff Doane Advisory Services
Agriculture Outlook Rich Pottorff Doane Advisory Services General Outline An overview of U.S. crop markets Corn, soybeans, wheat & cotton Some factors shaping the outlook World Ag Situation Conclusions
More informationGlobal economic cycle has slowed
Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence
More informationFigure 1: Canadian Real Exports and Imports 1981Q1 2009Q2, Quarterly
Figure 1: Canadian Real Exports and Imports 1981Q1 2009Q2, Quarterly Exports and Imports (Millions of 2002 $) 100000 300000 500000 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Exports Imports Exports and Imports
More informationVermont Economic Conference:
Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.
More informationNorth American Timber Outlook: The Supply Overhang
North American Timber Outlook: The Supply Overhang October 2016 Peter Barynin Principal Economist, Timber Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Presentation Outline Sawtimber 1. Price Forecast
More informationEconomic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant
More informationA record Quarter and Year for the Group
14 January 2019 2018 and FY18 Trading Update Steve Ingham Kelvin Stagg Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer A record Quarter and Year for the Group LSE: PAGE.L Website: http://www.page.com/investors
More informationEnergy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1
Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, 7996.16, 11% Africa, 3962.51, 6% Latin
More informationRBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism
More informationThe U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
More informationFishery. Fishing vessels (Dept. of Finance)
Fishery Fishing vessels (Dept. of Finance) The Newfoundland and Labrador fishery recorded a difficult year in 29 due to low market prices, continued pressure from low-cost producers, and an appreciating
More informationCanadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
More informationAs Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International
As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect
More informationDr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin
Dr. Greg Hallman Director, Real Estate Finance and Investment Center (REFIC) McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin POWERPOINT PARTNER The US Economy today, with a close look at jobs
More informationImpending Shortage of NA Lumber Capacity: Implications for U.S. Southern Industry
Impending Shortage of NA Lumber Capacity: Implications for U.S. Southern Industry Alabama Forest Owners Association Webinar Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis, Partner January 15, 2014 2 Purpose of Today s Presentation
More informationThe US Economic Outlook
IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth
More informationMedia, Brands & Marketing and Major Events: essential revenue streams for the business of sport
Media, Brands & Marketing and Major Events: essential revenue streams for the business of sport Every month SportBusiness International brings you information, insight and analysis into these three core
More informationCattle & Beef Outlook
Cattle & Beef Outlook Friday, August 18, 2017 Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Expansion continues, but has moderated
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half
More informationManufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow
Contact: Penny Brown, AMT, 703-827-5275 pbrown@amtonline.org For Release: October 8th, 2018 Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow Manufacturing technology orders posted an
More informationGlobal trade: how does it look?
Edmonton, December 2018 Global trade: how does it look? Marie-France Paquet The Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada Overview 1. Canadian economy at a glance 2. Provincial economy at a glance
More informationDeficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM
Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,
More informationSUMMARY. Natural Gas In The World 2017 Edition
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Natural Gas In The World 217 Edition CEDIGAZ, October 217 NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 217 SUMMARY Worldwide proven natural gas reserves grew
More informationSulphur Market Outlook
Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research
More informationU.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015
U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)
More informationChief Economist s Report
Chief Economist s Report 22 February 2017 IATA Legal Symposium, Washington Brian Pearce Chief Economist, IATA Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Themes 1. World economy still stuck on
More informationShifts in Global Trade Patterns
Shifts in Global Trade Patterns Presented to: AAPA Shifting International Trade Routes and Planning for the Panama Canal Expansion January 23, 2008 Port of Tampa Presented by: Robert West Managing Director
More informationTrade and Economic Trends
Trade and Economic Trends Marine Terminal Management Training Program Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce & Transportation IHS Global Insight Long Beach, CA September 21, 2009 The Global Recession
More informationWeather, Supply and the Turkish Flour Miller - The Outlook for World Wheat Prices 2018/19
Weather, Supply and the Turkish Flour Miller - The Outlook for World Wheat Prices 2018/19 v Daniel W Basse President AgResource Chicago, IL January 2016 Daniel W Basse Daniel Basse Daniel President W Basse
More informationThe international. ski market
LV/18/05/2014 Abstract The international ski market Presentation to ISIA Congress 17 May 2014 - Vuokatti Market metrics Skier : one person practising ski, snowboard or other downhill slide, independent
More informationOutlook for airline markets and industry performance
Outlook for airline markets and industry performance June 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist International Air Transport Association % change over previous year Confidence index. 50 = no change The already
More informationRISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE. (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last?
RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last? Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics CONCLUSIONS OF
More informationOCEAN2012 Fish Dependence Day - UK
OCEAN2012 Fish Dependence Day - UK Europeans are now so dependent on fish products originating from external waters that half the fish they consume are sourced outside the EU Fish dependence: The EU s
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full
More informationWhy Has Trade Stopped Growing?:
Why Has Trade Stopped Growing?: Not Much Liberalization and Lots of Micro-Protection Gary Hufbauer and Euijin Jung Peterson Institute for International Economics April 20, 2016 Peterson Institute for International
More informationFuture Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
More informationAlaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook
Alaska Resources Development Council November 14-15, 2018 Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook David R. Hammond, Ph.D. Principal Mineral Economist Hammond International Group Commodities
More informationBMO Capital Markets 2014 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York. May 21, 2014
0 BMO Capital Markets 2014 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York May 21, 2014 1 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial
More informationTelling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards
More informationMarket Report Series Oil 2017
Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower
More informationFutureMetrics. Global Pellet Market Outlook
FutureMetrics Global Pellet Market Outlook Canadian Bioeconomy Conference June 7, 2018 Seth Walker sethwalker@futuremetrics.com www.futuremetrics.com @Bioeconomist FutureMetrics Intelligent Analysis, Market
More informationNYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. Amanda W. Hite STR President & COO
NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference Amanda W. Hite STR President & COO Supply Middle East Leads in Development 6 5.9 4 3.8 2.5 2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0 Central- South America Europe Middle
More informationGlobal economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
More informationSpring Press Conference February 23, Name of chairman
Spring Press Conference February 23, 2006 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward looking statements which reflect Management s current views and estimates. The forward looking statements involve
More informationReading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President
More informationWINDS OF CHANGE GLOBAL FLEET & MRO MARKET FORECAST
WINDS OF CHANGE 2016-2026 GLOBAL FLEET & MRO MARKET FORECAST OCTOBER 19, 2016 Tom Cooper Vice President AVIATION Oliver Wyman s Aviation, Aerospace & Defense practice is the largest and most capable consulting
More informationAgricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture
Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Michael J. Swanson Ph.D. Agricultural Economist January 2018 2018 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use. The U.S. Ag Sector renormalizes!
More informationGlobal Industry Perspective Greg Tyler, Vice President of Marketing USA Poultry & Egg Export Council
Global Industry Perspective Greg Tyler, Vice President of Marketing USA Poultry & Egg Export Council UNECE Meetings Atlanta, Georgia April 24 th, 2012 USAPEEC & its Mission The USA Poultry & Egg Export
More informationBig Changes, Unknown Impacts
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth
More informationPressure building in the tin market?
Pressure building in the tin market? DATE: 25 May 2017 PREPARED BY: Cui Lin PREPARED FOR: SHFE Conference Presentation overview 2016 in review Recent market trends The outlook for supply and demand Summary
More informationBMO Capital Markets New York Road Show New York, New York. December 5, 2013
0 BMO Capital Markets New York Road Show New York, New York December 5, 2013 1 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial condition
More informationWORLD. Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees
2012 WORLD Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees WORLD Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees The World Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees identifies mobility trends among candidates applying
More informationAn Agricultural Update
An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980
More informationJapanese Market Potential
Growth Strategy (announced on 14 June 2013) : Japan is BACK. Overall Target: 2% Real GDP Growth in the next 10 years JPY1.5 million Increase of GNI/capita after 10 years Unleash the Potential of Private
More informationA Slower Global Economy with a Recession Watch in 2019
A Slower Global Economy with a Recession Watch in 2019 Implications for the Semiconductor Outlook Surface Preparation and Cleaning Conference (SPCC) April 3, 2019 Chief Economist, Hilltop Economics, LLC
More information2017/18 Corn Outlook
217/18 Corn Outlook 217 Ag Econ In service Training Dr. S. Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/pages/cropeconomics.aspx
More information