Regional Real Estate Trends

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1 Regional Real Estate Trends Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 6, 2018

2 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month Over Year , MSA Feb 7.0%. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 Inventories of Existing Homes Month Over Year 2010 2018, MSA % Chg Inv Inventory 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Thousands Feb 7.

3 Inventories of Existing Homes Month Over Year , MSA % Chg Inv Inventory Thousands Feb 7.0% Source: Bright MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

4 16,000 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Feb ,000 12,000 10, Month Moving Average 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,851 Feb ,

5 3,000 Washington MSA Building Permits , 3 Month Moving Avg 2,500 2,000 1,500 Jan 1,529 1, Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6 80% 60% MOTY Change in Existing Sales and Permits Washington MSA (12 month Moving Average) (000s) Permits Existing Home Sales 40% 20% 0% 20% 40%

7 (000s) (000s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $400 K Feb 2018

8 % Average Home Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia Feb = $464K

9 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA Single Family Detached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (000s) 20 $ $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Feb 2018 = $618,154, 2.7%

10 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA Single Family Attached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (000s) 30 $ $450 $ $ $300 $ $200 5 $150 0 $100 $50 5 $ Feb 2018= $449,668, + 4.7%

11 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA Condos (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (000s) 25 $ $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 10 $ Feb 2018 = $325,513, + 6.0%

12 Elements of population change in Loudoun County 14,000 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase 12,000 Population Change 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,985 5,026 6,440 5,618 5,253 5,056 5,392 2,219 2,317 2,235 2,327 2,552 2,574 2,535 Grew 3.1 % in th in VA in terms of percentage, 1 st in absolute number 2,000 3,995 3,939 3,790 3,954 3,966 3, Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2017

13 February Active Listings Loudoun County 1, % 1,190 1,268 1, % 6.6% 1.5% 1,622 1,371 1,208 1,040 1, % 15.5% 19.2% 16.2% 22.2% 18.6%

14 Percent change in February Inventories 2018 vs Loudoun County 20.7% 7.7% 13.5% 15.0% 17.0% 17.7% 18.7% 35.9% 36.6% Sterling (35) Sterling (42) Aldie (154) Ashburn (68) Ashburn (112) Chantilly (51) Loudoun County (868) Leesburg (100) Leesburg (64) *February 2018 totals in parenthesis

15 February Closed Home Sales Loudoun County % 16.8% 0.0% 1.8% 6.8% 4.0% 14.4% 11.0% 2.8% 5.1%

16 Percent change in February sales 2017 vs Loudoun County 20.7% 14.0% 6.5% 2.9% 5.1% 21.1% 24.4% 28.2% 46.2% Ashburn (35) Ashburn (57) Aldie (33) Leesburg (36) Loudoun County (334) Leesburg (45) Sterling (31) Sterling (28) Chantilly (21) *February 2018 totals in parenthesis

17 February New Listings Loudoun County % 6.4% 0.4% 17.5% 5.0% 2.8% 18.9% 4.8% 1.7% 7.2%

18 Percent change in February New Listings 2017 vs Loudoun County 16.9% 4.2% 1.7% 6.5% 7.2% 8.5% 9.2% 22.5% 33.9% Aldie (76) Ashburn (99) Sterling (60) Ashburn (101) Loudoun County (674) Chantilly (54) Leesburg (59) Sterling (38) Leesburg (78) *February 2018 totals in parenthesis

19 February Median Days on Market Loudoun County

20 Median Days on Market 2017 vs Loudoun County Feb 17 Feb Ashburn Chantilly Leesburg Ashburn Sterling Loudoun County Aldie Sterling Leesburg

21 Average Sales to Original List Price Ratio 2017 vs Loudoun County Feb 17 Feb Chantilly Ashburn Sterling Aldie Sterling Leesburg Loudoun County Leesburg Ashburn

22 Loudoun County Home Prices and Sales Median Sales Price Closed Sales Feb 18 Feb 17 YoY Feb 18 Feb 17 YoY 20105, Aldie $475,000 $429, % % 20148, Ashburn $465,000 $560, % % 20147, Ashburn $455,000 $397, % % 20176, Leesburg $452,500 $420, % % 20165, Sterling $450,000 $452, % % Loudoun County $449,000 $423, % % 20152, Chantilly $418,000 $391, % % 20175, Leesburg $405,000 $465, % % 20164, Sterling $367,500 $327, % % *ZIP codes with <20 February sales excluded

23 Loudoun County Building Permits Issued Building Permits Issued 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Single Family Multi Family 31.8% YOY growth in February 15.2% average monthly growth over the past year, 1% in % in % in ,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

24 Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Q Loudoun County Office Market Absorption, Deliveries, Vacancy Rate

25 Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Q Loudoun County Office Market Asking Rent

26 Office Vacancy Rates Northern VA Northern Virginia 21.2% 21.3% 21.6% Arlington County 22.9% 22.8% 21.6% City of Alexandria 25.0% 23.5% 26.3% Fairfax County 19.7% 20.5% 20.4% Loudoun County 20.3% 18.2% 14.2% Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Q4 2017

27 Inventory remains tight Price pressure continues Loudoun County is growing In Summary New construction coming online Office vacancy is low SALT tax impacts on the tolerance for new residential development.

28 Thank You cra.gmu.edu

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