Communities in Control Conference 2007

Transcription

1 Communities in Control Conference 2007 Looking Back, Leaping Forward: the latest trends, facts and demographics you must know Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner KPMG Australia 4 June 2007

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7 Push from the bush Coastal 8% Inner city 25% Coastal 19% Inner city 5% Rural 52% Suburbia 15% Rural 17% Suburbia 59% Suburban culture emerged during the 20 th Century Provincial coastal culture now ascendant Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002

8 Population hotspots 1. Gold Coast 13, Wanneroo 7, Melton 6, Wyndham 6, Casey 6, Blacktown 4, Brisbane SW 4, Rockingham 4, Ipswich 4, Cairns 4,099 Telecommuting lifestyle towns are evolving at Palm Beach (NSW), Mt Tambourine (Qld), Daylesford (Vic), Birdwood (SA), Falmouth (Tas) and Cundinup (WA) and this was in 2001 prior to Broadband and 3G technology Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

9 Our shifting heartland Palmerston Port Douglas Broome East Pilbara Townsville Proserpine Leonora Geraldton Ngaanyatjarraku Yeppoon Hervey Bay Noosa Caloundra Gold Coast Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Busselton Port Stephens Augusta- Margaret River Denmark Victor Harbor Narooma Winners Losers Areas of population loss and growth between 1976 and 2006 Macedon Ranges Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Sorell

10 Coastal towns require infrastructure and services 6.0% 5.0% Bunbury Hervey Bay Mandurah 4.0% 3.0% Mildura Bunbury Hervey Bay Mandurah Busselton Cairns Mackay Townsville Gold Coast-Tweed Darwin Albany Sunshine Coast Mildura Bundaberg Gladstone Bendigo Perth Mount Barker Ballarat Shepparton Livingstone (Yeppoon) Toowoomba Warrnambool Coffs Harbour Brisbane Nowra-Bomaderry Bathurst Mount Isa Wagga Wagga Singleton Melbourne Tamworth Lismore Great Lakes (Forster) Geraldton Griffith Bega Valley Geelong Rockhampton Albury-Wodonga Canberra-Queanbeyan Grafton La Trobe Valley Greater Hobart Eurobodalla (Narooma) Ballina Nambucca Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) Sydney Dubbo Adelaide Burnie-Devonport Orange Newcastle Armidale Port Macquarie Launceston Mount Gambier Taree (Greater) Lithgow Burdekin (Ayr) Kempsey Maryborough Wollongong Byron Alice Springs Kalgoorlie/Boulder Goulburn Broken Hill Whyalla Johnstone (Innisfail) 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% National average -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Innisfail The driving force for many Australians is the pursuit of lifestyle either on the beach or up in the hills Population change: to 2006

11 Teenage years stretched by Generation X Gen Y 2008 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Old Adult Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 80 years Source: ABS 2003a, , , ; Australia s Health 2004 (AIHW)

12 Characteristics of Generation Y Born now aged Often a single child of baby boomer parents Matured to adulthood in prosperous times Many live at home with mum & dad Not committed in their 20s to marriage, mortgage, children, careers May turn out to be the Disappointed Generation Different views on loyalty to friends, to workmates, to employers Prefer deals not contracts and mentors not bosses Highly educated, opportunistic and global in their thinking

13 There is a demographic logic behind the rise of Generation Y in Australia ,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 200, , , ,000 50,000 50, Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)

14 in Japan 3,000, ,500,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 2,000,000 1,500, million 1,000, contraction 500, ,000-1,000, Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, Statistics Bureau of Japan (2006)

15 in China ,000,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 15,000, million 10,000, contraction 5,000, ,000,000-10,000, Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, UN Statistics Division

16 in India 15,000,000 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years 14 million Source: KPMG Property Advisory, UN Statistics Division

17 and in the US ,000,000 2,500,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 2.5 million The Latino Lift 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, US Census Bureau (2006)

18 We are shifting our belief systems from traditional religion to consumerism 100% Believers 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Anglican 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Catholic No religion Anglican Catholic Total Christianity No religion Source: KPMG Property Advisory Group; Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population & Housing

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20 The ageing of the average Aussie bride Bridegrooms Xer brides were 29 in Baby boomer brides were 21 in Source: Australian Demographic Statistics (3101.0); Marriages and Divorces (3310.0)

21 Behold the Great Australian Man Drought Male surplus Male deficit Men 936,400 1,493,100 Women 882,200 1,502,300 Male surplus +54,200-9, Source: ABS (2004) Unpublished historical data (1976)

22 Women born in 1972 have got it toughest YE June Men Women Male Surplus , ,000 +1, , ,000-1, , ,000-1, , ,000-2, , ,000-3, , ,000-2, , ,000-2, , ,000-2,000 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

23 The fella filter Total men aged ,381,000 Less married 485,000 Less defacto 185,000 Less gay relationship 7,000 Less single parent (baggage) 12,000 Less men not earning $60k + pa (2005) 568,000 Total Prime Available Male Product 86,000 Less than 6 per cent of men survive the Fella Filter

24 The fella filter delivers geeks and bean counters 1. Accountant 3, Sales & marketing manager 2, Software designer 2, Applications & analyst programmer 2, Fitter 1, General electrician 1, Systems designer 1, Management consultant 1, Solicitor 1, General manager 1,252

25 Young Kiwi men are not in New Zealand 3,000 2, Male surplus Men 190, ,900 Women 186, ,200 Male surplus 4,500-30,300 1, ,000-2,000-3,000 Male deficit -4, Source: Statistics New Zealand

26 Singles beat couples and families Singles Couples One-parent family Mum, Dad & the Kids Group households Other family Households ( 000s) 6,450 7,789 11,580 Mum, Dad & the Kids has been the leading social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades By 2021 families and couples are eclipsed by singles who then pull ahead in 2020s

27 Big shift in attitudes to retirement , ,000 Workers retire Boss manages younger employees Workers deferential Rich corporate memory 140,000 Workers phase shift CEO manages older workers Workers question authority Corporate memory threatened 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 20, Net growth in retirement age population (65+) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)

28 Generational traits Boomers Gen X Gen Y Millennials Born Born Born Born Now aged million Idealistic; careerorientated; consumerist Promoted young and propped Peak income earning Succession planning, advisory boards, nonexec directors Now aged million Realists; cynical Held back by old fart logjam Peak income earning Assuming positions of high office now Must deal with baby boomers in retirement Now aged million Experiential; ethicists; uncommitted to career; relationships Helicopter kids; KIPPERS Peak income earning Technology savvy; global thinking Inherit boomer wealth Now aged million Children of Gen X The New Conservatives Raised by cashstrapped Xers HECS debt repayment High mortgage repayments Experience recession as kids Fixers of Y s mess?

29 Further information & contact The Big Picture $29.95rrp out now Bernard Salt s column appears in The Australian every Thursday Population Growth Database 2006 now available at $495: contact fmevans@.com.au Contact: Bernard Salt (03) ; bsalt@.com.au; The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.