Why a low unemployment rate doesn t mean everything is rosy in the labour market

Transcription

1 Why a low unemployment rate doesn t mean everything is rosy in the labour market Ian Watson Freelance researcher & Visiting research fellow, Macquarie University Annual Outreach Workshop, Sydney, 25 October 2007

2 Overview Behind the unemployment rate Youth labour market: teenagers and young adults A casualised working life The political context

3 When Elvis last played Vegas Trend unemployment rate, Australia

4 Music while you work Job advertisements for factory work, 1947: Excellent working conditions in modern airy workroom Modern cafeteria, social and recreation club, tennis courts and sports fields Music while you work... Free Medical and Dental services... Tea supplied free Special tuition given, and permanent positions assured

5 When young people were valued 1950s debate on raising the school leaving age Will the advantage to the community of providing more education for these adolescents offset the economic consequences of their withdrawal from the labour market (Spearritt, 1958) I mean, that s how the jobs were, they chased me, you know. I didn t have to line up and get picked out of one of 200. They chased me after I didn t turn up... So anyway, I come in, didn t I (Factory worker, 1950s).

6 Unemployment rate: only half the story Unemployment rate

7 A two-speed economy 1 Regional dimension 2 Unemployment rates in: Playford (Elizabeth, SA): 17.1% Inner city Hobart (Tas): 16.3% Cairns (Qld): 15.1% South Ballarat (Vic): 10.2% Auburn (NSW): 10.1% Wollongong (NSW): 8.2% 3 Quality, not just quantity Training Job security Remuneration

8 Growing wage inequality Weekly earnings (2006 dollars) Mining 1100 Finance Utilities Construction Retail Accommodation

9 Unemployment rate: only half the story Underutilisation rate Unemployment rate

10 Age and employment Age and employment, Australia F/T 1981 Per cent employed P/T 2001 F/T P/T Age

11 Where unemployed teenagers end up Destinations (in 2005) of unemployed teenagers (in 2001) Permanent full time 26 Casual full time 20 Permanent part time 8 Casual part time 16 Unemployed 14 Not in labour force Percentage

12 Young adults in the labour market Two shifts in last few years with disturbing implications: 1 Greater concentration of young adults in small firms less training 2 More likely to hold lower skilled positions

13 Casualisation: traditional areas Industry 1985 (%) 2006 (%) Agric, forestry & fishing Retail trade Accomm, cafes & restaur Education Cultural & recreat services Total industries 16 27

14 Casualisation: new areas Industry 1985 (%) 2006 (%) Manufacturing 8 17 Construction Wholesale trade Transport & storage Finance & insurance 4 12 Health & commun services Total industries 16 27

15 What s at stake Casualisation as: access to labour without obligation (Gonos 1997) Casuals: half as likely to get training compared with permanents

16 Knowledge intensity of jobs Is the knowledge content of jobs increasing? Data for 1986 to 1996: Yes, for full-time jobs: importance of knowledge to the job and the level of knowledge required in the job No, for part-time jobs: substantial declines in the knowledge intensity of part-time jobs over the decade (Sheehan and Eposto) a decline in the quality of part-time jobs

17 Growth in VET Thousands Number of VET students, Australia Engineering, surveying: flat Hospitality: 92% Business admin: flat Architecture, blding: 13% Science: 96% Land & marine: 46% Business admin: 30% Hospitality: 62% Health & community: 48% Arts & social sciences: flat Science: 22% Male Female

18 Challenges for VET 1992 half of vocational students had Year two-thirds Institutional screening, fees Risk that VET sector disengages... from the needs of marginalised young people with a continuing labour market disadvantage Challenge: TAFEs should become the fulcrum around which comprehensive re-entry learning and skilling strategies are developed (Dusseldorp Skills Forum)

19 The neo-liberal agenda Post-war welfare state Crisis of profitability The neo-liberal resurgence The treason of the state

20 People flows C19th upheavals and dislocations in Europe C20th dislocation in the Third World brain drain to the west Structural Adjustment Programs New sources of labour supply: Migrants on 457 visas: more than 100,000 currently working Single parents: welfare to work Mature age workers (Intergenerational Report and the work till you drop injunction)