FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, DECEMBER 28 AT 10 AM
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- Claribel Harrell
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1 Interviews with 1,008 adult Americans conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on December 17-19, The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, DECEMBER 28 AT 10 AM December 17-19, 2010
2 BASED ON 470 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5% PTS. 45. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination in Very Somewhat Not very Not Likely No Likely Likely Likely at all Opinion Alaska Governor Sarah Palin December 17-19, % 26% 23% 28% * December 1-2, % 35% 21% 12% * Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney December 17-19, % 35% 25% 15% 2% December 1-2, % 33% 23% 13% 3% Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee December 17-19, % 40% 20% 11% 2% December 1-2, % 31% 21% 13% 1% Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich December 17-19, % 35% 22% 22% 2% December 1-2, % 25% 28% 19% 1% December 17-19, 2010
3 BASED ON 470 DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5% PTS. 46. Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012? Dec Oct Aug Mar Renominate Obama 78% 73% 74% 76% Different candidate 19% 22% 23% 20% No opinion 3% 5% 2% 4% FOR COMPARISON CNN/TIME TREND November 9-10, 1994 BILL CLINTON Renominate Clinton 57% Different candidate 32% No opinion 11% QUESTION WORDING: Do you think the Democratic party should re-nominate Bill Clinton as the party s candidate in 1996 or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for President in If it were up to you, which of these cities would you prefer to see the Democrats hold their presidential convention in Charlotte, North Carolina; Cleveland, Ohio; Minneapolis, Minnesota; or St. Louis, Missouri? (RANDOM ORDER) Dec Cleveland 29% Charlotte 22% Minneapolis 21% St. Louis 17% Other (vol.) 6% No opinion 5% December 17-19, 2010
4 Question 45A I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination in A. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin Base = Republicans Very likely 23% 21% 26% 25% N/A Somewhat likely 26% 29% 22% 26% N/A Not very likely 23% 22% 23% 23% N/A Not likely at all 28% 28% 28% 26% N/A No opinion * * * * N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.0 Very likely 23% N/A N/A 29% 18% 22% 25% Somewhat likely 26% N/A N/A 24% 27% 26% 25% Not very likely 23% N/A N/A 23% 26% 22% 24% Not likely at all 28% N/A N/A 24% 28% 30% 26% No opinion * N/A N/A * 1% * * Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 23% 28% 19% 26% 21% Somewhat likely 26% 25% 26% 25% 27% Not very likely 23% 18% 26% 20% 25% Not likely at all 28% 29% 29% 30% 27% No opinion * * * * * Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-5.5 Very likely 23% N/A 18% 28% N/A 12% 28% Somewhat likely 26% N/A 20% 32% N/A 17% 30% Not very likely 23% N/A 24% 21% N/A 22% 24% Not likely at all 28% N/A 38% 19% N/A 50% 17% No opinion * N/A * * N/A * * Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 23% N/A N/A 25% N/A N/A 19% 29% Somewhat likely 26% N/A N/A 29% N/A N/A 26% 31% Not very likely 23% N/A N/A 21% N/A N/A 27% 13% Not likely at all 28% N/A N/A 25% N/A N/A 28% 27% No opinion * N/A N/A * N/A N/A * * Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.5 Very likely 23% 30% 15% N/A Somewhat likely 26% 32% 24% N/A Not very likely 23% 22% 23% N/A Not likely at all 28% 15% 39% N/A No opinion * * * N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/ December 17-19, 2010
5 Question 45B I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination in B. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney Base = Republicans Very likely 24% 24% 24% 24% N/A Somewhat likely 35% 28% 42% 35% N/A Not very likely 25% 29% 21% 25% N/A Not likely at all 15% 18% 12% 14% N/A No opinion 2% 1% 3% 2% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.0 Very likely 24% N/A N/A 27% 30% 21% 28% Somewhat likely 35% N/A N/A 33% 42% 33% 37% Not very likely 25% N/A N/A 24% 18% 28% 21% Not likely at all 15% N/A N/A 14% 8% 17% 12% No opinion 2% N/A N/A 2% 2% 1% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 24% 24% 23% 20% 27% Somewhat likely 35% 31% 37% 34% 35% Not very likely 25% 20% 28% 26% 24% Not likely at all 15% 22% 12% 18% 13% No opinion 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-5.5 Very likely 24% N/A 22% 26% N/A 19% 28% Somewhat likely 35% N/A 32% 37% N/A 35% 34% Not very likely 25% N/A 25% 25% N/A 25% 26% Not likely at all 15% N/A 19% 10% N/A 18% 11% No opinion 2% N/A 2% 1% N/A 3% 1% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 24% N/A N/A 28% N/A N/A 22% 23% Somewhat likely 35% N/A N/A 32% N/A N/A 34% 33% Not very likely 25% N/A N/A 21% N/A N/A 27% 25% Not likely at all 15% N/A N/A 17% N/A N/A 14% 17% No opinion 2% N/A N/A 3% N/A N/A 2% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.5 Very likely 24% 29% 18% N/A Somewhat likely 35% 37% 32% N/A Not very likely 25% 21% 34% N/A Not likely at all 15% 12% 14% N/A No opinion 2% * 2% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/ December 17-19, 2010
6 Question 45C I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination in C. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee Base = Republicans Very likely 27% 27% 27% 28% N/A Somewhat likely 40% 39% 42% 43% N/A Not very likely 20% 23% 16% 18% N/A Not likely at all 11% 11% 12% 10% N/A No opinion 2% * 3% 1% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.0 Very likely 27% N/A N/A 27% 32% 25% 29% Somewhat likely 40% N/A N/A 35% 38% 44% 36% Not very likely 20% N/A N/A 21% 19% 19% 21% Not likely at all 11% N/A N/A 14% 10% 11% 12% No opinion 2% N/A N/A 2% 1% 2% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 27% 28% 24% 25% 28% Somewhat likely 40% 33% 46% 43% 38% Not very likely 20% 19% 21% 19% 21% Not likely at all 11% 17% 6% 12% 11% No opinion 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-5.5 Very likely 27% N/A 24% 30% N/A 17% 33% Somewhat likely 40% N/A 42% 39% N/A 44% 41% Not very likely 20% N/A 19% 20% N/A 23% 17% Not likely at all 11% N/A 11% 12% N/A 12% 8% No opinion 2% N/A 4% * N/A 4% 1% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 27% N/A N/A 37% N/A N/A 22% 35% Somewhat likely 40% N/A N/A 38% N/A N/A 45% 31% Not very likely 20% N/A N/A 14% N/A N/A 22% 17% Not likely at all 11% N/A N/A 10% N/A N/A 9% 14% No opinion 2% N/A N/A 1% N/A N/A 2% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.5 Very likely 27% 34% 15% N/A Somewhat likely 40% 38% 45% N/A Not very likely 20% 17% 24% N/A Not likely at all 11% 9% 13% N/A No opinion 2% 1% 3% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/ December 17-19, 2010
7 Question 45D I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination in D. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich Base = Republicans Very likely 19% 20% 19% 18% N/A Somewhat likely 35% 36% 34% 38% N/A Not very likely 22% 22% 22% 22% N/A Not likely at all 22% 20% 24% 20% N/A No opinion 2% 3% 2% 2% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.0 Very likely 19% N/A N/A 22% 27% 15% 24% Somewhat likely 35% N/A N/A 33% 31% 37% 32% Not very likely 22% N/A N/A 23% 24% 20% 23% Not likely at all 22% N/A N/A 22% 16% 24% 20% No opinion 2% N/A N/A * 2% 3% 1% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 19% 17% 20% 19% 20% Somewhat likely 35% 37% 36% 38% 33% Not very likely 22% 17% 24% 20% 23% Not likely at all 22% 27% 19% 20% 23% No opinion 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-5.5 Very likely 19% N/A 21% 17% N/A 18% 21% Somewhat likely 35% N/A 30% 40% N/A 27% 41% Not very likely 22% N/A 21% 22% N/A 24% 22% Not likely at all 22% N/A 25% 18% N/A 29% 14% No opinion 2% N/A 2% 3% N/A 2% 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Very likely 19% N/A N/A 20% N/A N/A 17% 21% Somewhat likely 35% N/A N/A 39% N/A N/A 32% 38% Not very likely 22% N/A N/A 21% N/A N/A 21% 23% Not likely at all 22% N/A N/A 17% N/A N/A 28% 14% No opinion 2% N/A N/A 3% N/A N/A 1% 4% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.5 Very likely 19% 25% 12% N/A Somewhat likely 35% 36% 37% N/A Not very likely 22% 20% 26% N/A Not likely at all 22% 17% 21% N/A No opinion 2% 2% 4% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/ December 17-19, 2010
8 Question 46 Do you think the Democratic do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012?party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or Base = Democrats Renominate Obama 78% 76% 80% 75% N/A Different candidate 19% 20% 18% 22% N/A No opinion 3% 5% 2% 3% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-5.0 Renominate Obama 78% N/A N/A 73% 80% 79% 76% Different candidate 19% N/A N/A 19% 17% 20% 18% No opinion 3% N/A N/A 8% 3% 1% 6% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Renominate Obama 78% 73% 83% 72% 83% Different candidate 19% 24% 13% 24% 15% No opinion 3% 3% 3% 5% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-7.0 +/-8.0 +/-5.5 Renominate Obama 78% 82% 70% N/A 85% 78% N/A Different candidate 19% 14% 27% N/A 13% 20% N/A No opinion 3% 3% 3% N/A 3% 2% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-5.5 +/-7.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 Renominate Obama 78% N/A N/A 77% N/A 78% 80% N/A Different candidate 19% N/A N/A 18% N/A 17% 19% N/A No opinion 3% N/A N/A 5% N/A 4% 1% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 Renominate Obama 78% N/A 72% 90% Different candidate 19% N/A 24% 8% No opinion 3% N/A 4% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/ December 17-19, 2010
9 Question 47 If it were up to you, which of these cities would you prefer to see the Democrats hold their presidential convention in Base = Democrats Charlotte, North Carolina 22% 19% 24% 22% N/A Cleveland, Ohio 29% 33% 25% 29% N/A Minneapolis, Minnesota 21% 18% 24% 22% N/A St. Louis, Missouri 17% 20% 13% 17% N/A Other 6% 7% 6% 4% N/A No opinion 5% 2% 8% 5% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.0 +/-5.0 Charlotte, North Carolina 22% N/A N/A 21% 24% 22% 22% Cleveland, Ohio 29% N/A N/A 27% 21% 32% 25% Minneapolis, Minnesota 21% N/A N/A 19% 27% 20% 23% St. Louis, Missouri 17% N/A N/A 17% 12% 18% 15% Other 6% N/A N/A 10% 4% 5% 8% No opinion 5% N/A N/A 5% 12% 3% 8% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Charlotte, North Carolina 22% 24% 19% 29% 16% Cleveland, Ohio 29% 28% 28% 19% 37% Minneapolis, Minnesota 21% 25% 17% 22% 20% St. Louis, Missouri 17% 14% 21% 18% 15% Other 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% No opinion 5% 3% 7% 5% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-7.0 +/-8.0 +/-5.5 Charlotte, North Carolina 22% 20% 26% N/A 14% 25% N/A Cleveland, Ohio 29% 29% 30% N/A 34% 30% N/A Minneapolis, Minnesota 21% 24% 16% N/A 26% 19% N/A St. Louis, Missouri 17% 16% 18% N/A 13% 17% N/A Other 6% 7% 6% N/A 5% 6% N/A No opinion 5% 6% 5% N/A 7% 3% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-5.5 +/-7.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 Charlotte, North Carolina 22% N/A N/A 43% N/A 14% 18% N/A Cleveland, Ohio 29% N/A N/A 21% N/A 33% 33% N/A Minneapolis, Minnesota 21% N/A N/A 20% N/A 27% 19% N/A St. Louis, Missouri 17% N/A N/A 11% N/A 10% 21% N/A Other 6% N/A N/A 1% N/A 13% 4% N/A No opinion 5% N/A N/A 4% N/A 4% 6% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 Charlotte, North Carolina 22% N/A 26% 14% Cleveland, Ohio 29% N/A 25% 36% Minneapolis, Minnesota 21% N/A 16% 23% St. Louis, Missouri 17% N/A 20% 17% Other 6% N/A 10% 3% No opinion 5% N/A 3% 7% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/ December 17-19, 2010
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