THE AP-GfK POLL March, 2016

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1 Public Affairs & Corporate Communications THE AP-GfK POLL March, 2016 Conducted by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications A survey of the American general population (ages 18+) Interview dates: March 31 April 4, 2016 Number of interviews, adults: 1,076 Margin of error for the total sample: +/- 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level NOTE: All results show percentages among all respondents, unless otherwise labeled. Please refer to the exact sample number at the bottom of each table. *Beginning in October, 2013, AP-GfK polls were conducted online using GfK s nationally representative KnowledgePanel. All prior trend conducted by telephone. For more information, see 1

2 CUR1. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 Right direction Wrong direction Don t know [VOL] na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Refused/Not answered 10/15-20/14 10/15-20/14 9/25-29/14 * 1 * 1 1 * * * 1 * * /24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/13 1/17-21/14 12/5-9/13 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 N=1,012 N=1,060 N=1,367 2

3 CUR2./ CUR3/ CUR3A/3AA CUR3B. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president. [IF APPROVE ] Would you say you approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president strongly or do you approve just somewhat? [IF DISAPPROVE ] Would you say you disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president strongly or do you disapprove just somewhat? [IF NEITHER, OR REFUSED/NOT ANSWERED] If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? [NOTE: BEGINNING IN DECEMBER, 2013, RESPONDENTS WHO DECLINE TO LEAN ARE SHOWN THIS QUESTION AGAIN INCLUDING A DO NOT LEAN EITHER WAY RESPONSE OPTION] 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 1/17-21/14 12/5-9/13 10/3-7/13* Total approve Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean approve Neither don t lean * * 1 * * Total disapprove Lean disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don t know [VOL] na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Refused/Not Answered * * * * * * * 1 * * - * - - * * * * - * N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 N=1,012 N=1,060 N=1,367 N=1,227 3

4 AA4./ AA4A/ AA4B/ AA5/ AA5A. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. [IF APPROVE ] Would you say you approve of the way Congress is handling its job strongly or do you approve just somewhat? [IF DISAPPROVE ] Would you say you disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job strongly or do you disapprove just somewhat? [IF NEITHER OR REFUSED/NOT ANSWERED] If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Congress is handling its job? [NOTE: BEGINNING IN DECEMBER, 2013, RESPONDENTS WHO DECLINE TO LEAN ARE SHOWN THIS QUESTION AGAIN INCLUDING A DO NOT LEAN EITHER WAY RESPONSE OPTION] 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 1/14-21/14 12/5-9/13 10/3-7/13* Total approve Strongly approve * * Somewhat approve Lean approve Neither don t lean * * - 1 * * * 11 Total disapprove Lean disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don t know [VOL] na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Refused/Not Answered * 1 1 * 1 * * - * * * * * * N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 N=1,012 N=1,060 N=1,367 N=1,227 4

5 S1. Are you currently registered to vote at your address, or not? 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Yes No Not sure * - - * Refused/Not answered * /24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 1/17-21/14 12/5-9/13 (Excludes those living in ND) N=1,075 N=1,030 N=1,006 N=1,023 N=1,002 N=1,077 N=1,607 N=1,384 N=967 N=1,840 N=1,536 N=955 N=1,042 N=1,352 N=1,009 N=1,058 N=1,365 ANG1. Which comes closest to your feelings about each of the following? Enthusiastic/ Satisfied Satisfied, but not enthusiastic Dissatisfied/ Angry Dissatisfied, but not angry Angry Refused Enthusiastic The way the federal government is working The way your state and local governments are working The way your personal and family relationships are going Your personal financial situation Your career (Base: employed n=631) Your work-life balance (Base: employed n=631) Base: (unless noted) 5

6 CURX1. How important are each of the following issues to you personally? [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] The economy 7/9-13/15 Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important * * 1 * * 1 Refused/Not Answered /23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 Immigration 7/9-13/15 Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 6

7 (Continued) CURX1. How important are each of the following issues to you personally? [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] The U.S. role in world affairs Extremely/Very important /9-13/15 Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 4/23-27/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 The threat posed by the Islamic State group Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=943 N=787 N=480 7

8 (Continued) CURX1. How important are each of the following issues to you personally? [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Health care 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 3/20-24/14 Supreme Court nominations Extremely/Very important 50 Extremely important 27 Very important 24 Moderately important 29 Slightly/Not at all important 20 Slightly important 12 Not at all important 8 Refused/Not Answered 2 8

9 (Continued) CURX1. How important are each of the following issues to you personally? [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Trade with other countries Extremely/Very important 43 Extremely important 14 Very important 29 Moderately important 37 Slightly/Not at all important 19 Slightly important 14 Not at all important 5 Refused/Not Answered 1 9

10 CURY2/3/3a. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling... [RESPONDENTS SHOWN EACH ITEM ON A SEPARATE SCREEN] [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] The economy 7/9-13/15 Total approve Approve Lean towards approving Don t lean either way * 1 * * 1 * * 1 Total disapprove Lean towards disapproving Disapprove Refused/Not Answered * * - 1 * * * 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 The U.S. role in world affairs Total approve Approve Lean towards approving Don t lean either way * 1 1 * 1 1 * 1 Total disapprove Lean towards disapproving Disapprove Refused/Not Answered * * 1 1 * * 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 10

11 (Continued) CURY2/3/3a. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling... [ITEMS RANDOMIZED The threat posed by the Islamic State group Total approve Approve Lean towards approving Don t lean either way * Total disapprove Lean towards disapproving Disapprove Refused/Not Answered * * 2 1 * N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,045 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=943 N=787 N=480 1/29-2/2/15 Immigration 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 Total approve Approve Lean towards approving Don t lean either way * Total disapprove Lean towards disapproving Disapprove Refused/Not Answered * - 1 * * 1 1 * N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 N=513 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 11

12 (Continued) CURY2/3/3a. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling... [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Health care 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 Total approve Approve Lean towards approving Don t lean either way * * * - 1 * * Total disapprove Lean towards disapproving Disapprove Refused/Not Answered * * 1 * * * 1 * 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 N=1,033 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 N=1,012 Trade with other countries Total approve 49 Approve 29 Lean towards approving 20 Don t lean either way 1 Total disapprove 49 Lean towards disapproving 18 Disapprove 32 Refused/Not Answered 1 12

13 (Continued) CURY2/3/3a. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling... [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Supreme Court nominations Total approve 57 Approve 40 Lean towards approving 17 Don t lean either way 1 Total disapprove 41 Lean towards disapproving 17 Disapprove 25 Refused/Not Answered 1 13

14 FAV1. For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too. (Summary table) Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say Refused Barack Obama Ted Cruz Hillary Clinton John Kasich Donald Trump Bernie Sanders

15 FAV1. For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too. Barack Obama 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,044 N=1,012 N=1,367 N=1,227 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 3/20-24/14 12/5-9/13 10/3-7/13 Ted Cruz 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 7/24-28/14 3/20-24/14 10/3-7/13* Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,044 N=1,012 N=1,227 15

16 FAV1. (Continued) For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too. Hillary Clinton Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,044 N=1,012 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 7/24-28/14 3/20-24/14 John Kasich 7/9-13/15 3/20-24/14 Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,012 16

17 FAV1. (Continued) For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too. Donald Trump Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 7/9-13/15 Bernie Sanders 4/23-27/15 Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,077 17

18 FAVP. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of [GRID, RANDOMIZE FIRST TWO ITEMS] The Democratic Party Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Refused/Not Answered N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,354 N=1,012 N=1,367 N=1,227 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 12/5-9/13 10/3-7/13 The Republican Party Total favorable Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Refused/Not Answered N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,354 N=1,012 N=1,367 N=1,227 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 12/5-9/13 10/3-7/13 18

19 ENTH1a. Which of the following words best describes how you would feel about Hillary Clinton being the Democratic nominee for president in 2016? Excited/satisfied Excited Satisfied Neutral Angry/disappointed Disappointed Angry Refused/Not Answered 1 2 4/23-27/15 N=1,077 ENTH1b. Which of the following words best describes how you would feel about Donald Trump being the Republican nominee for president in 2016? Excited/satisfied 19 Excited 10 Satisfied 10 Neutral 16 Angry/disappointed 63 Disappointed 31 Angry 33 Refused/Not Answered 1 19

20 WIN2. Would you definitely vote for, consider voting for, or definitely not vote for each of the following candidates in a general election for president? Definitely would vote for Would consider voting for Definitely would not vote for Refused Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich Hillary Clinton Definitely would vote for Would consider voting for Definitely would not vote for Refused/Not Answered 1 3 N=1.033 Bernie Sanders Definitely would vote for Would consider voting for Definitely would not vote for Refused/Not Answered 1 5 N=

21 WIN2. (Continued) Would you definitely vote for, consider voting for, or definitely not vote for each of the following candidates in a general election for president? Donald Trump Definitely would vote for Would consider voting for Definitely would not vote for Refused/Not Answered 2 3 N=1.033 Ted Cruz Definitely would vote for Would consider voting for Definitely would not vote for Refused/Not Answered 2 4 N=1.033 John Kasich Definitely would vote for 11 7 Would consider voting for Definitely would not vote for Refused/Not Answered 2 5 N=

22 WIN3. If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for president and Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, would you: Vote for Clinton or Trump 66 Definitely vote for either Clinton or Trump 47 Probably vote for either Clinton or Trump 19 Vote for third party candidate 20 Probably vote for a third party candidate 10 Definitely vote for a third party candidate 10 Would not vote 13 Refused/Not Answered 1 22

23 WIN1. Regardless of who you would personally support, do you think each of the following could possibly win the general election for president if they were their party s nominee, or definitely could not win? Could possibly win Definitely could not win Refused Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich Hillary Clinton Could possibly win Definitely could not win Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 Bernie Sanders Could possibly win Definitely could not win Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 23

24 WIN1. (Continued) Regardless of who you would personally support, do you think each of the following could possibly win the general election for president if they were their party s nominee, or definitely could not win? Donald Trump Could possibly win Definitely could not win Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 Ted Cruz Could possibly win Definitely could not win Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 John Kasich Could possibly win Definitely could not win Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 24

25 IMG1. Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Hillary Clinton Civil Very/somewhat well 48 Very well 21 Somewhat well 27 Slightly/not at all well 49 Slightly well 21 Not at all well 28 Refused/Not Answered 3 Compassionate Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 7/9-13/15 25

26 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Honest Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Decisive Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 26

27 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Likable Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Competent Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 7/9-13/15 27

28 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Bernie Sanders Civil Very/somewhat well 58 Very well 28 Somewhat well 30 Slightly/not at all well 37 Slightly well 25 Not at all well 12 Refused/Not Answered 5 Compassionate Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 28

29 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Honest Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 Decisive Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 29

30 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Likable Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 Competent Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 30

31 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Donald Trump Civil Very/somewhat well 15 Very well 4 Somewhat well 11 Slightly/not at all well 83 Slightly well 17 Not at all well 66 Refused/Not Answered 3 Compassionate Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 31

32 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Honest Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 Decisive Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 32

33 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Likable Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 Competent Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 33

34 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Ted Cruz Civil Very/somewhat well 33 Very well 8 Somewhat well 26 Slightly/not at all well 61 Slightly well 33 Not at all well 28 Refused/Not Answered 6 Compassionate Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 34

35 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Honest Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 Decisive Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 35

36 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Likable Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 Competent Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 36

37 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] John Kasich Civil Very/somewhat well 48 Very well 18 Somewhat well 30 Slightly/not at all well 46 Slightly well 28 Not at all well 18 Refused/Not Answered 7 Compassionate Very/somewhat well Very well 11 7 Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 7 13 N=1,033 37

38 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Honest Very/somewhat well Very well 12 9 Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 7 13 N=1,033 Decisive Very/somewhat well Very well 9 6 Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 7 13 N=1,033 38

39 IMG1. (Continued) Please tell me how well each word describes [INSERT ITEM] [GRID, RANDOMIZE ITEMS ] Likable Very/somewhat well Very well 13 7 Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 7 13 N=1,033 Competent Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 7 13 N=1,033 39

40 ISSPRES. How well does each of the following candidates represent your positions on the issues you care about? Very/ somewhat well Very well Somewhat Well Slightly/ Not well at all Slightly well Not well at all Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump John Kasich Ted Cruz Base: Refused Hillary Clinton Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 3 6 N=1,033 Bernie Sanders Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 4 7 N=1,033 40

41 ISSPRES. (Continued) How well does each of the following candidates represent your positions on the issues you care about? Donald Trump Very/somewhat well Very well Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 4 7 N=1,033 John Kasich Very/somewhat well Very well 7 6 Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 5 10 N=1,033 41

42 ISSPRES. (Continued) How well does each of the following candidates represent your positions on the issues you care about? Ted Cruz Very/somewhat well Very well 7 10 Somewhat well Slightly/not at all well Slightly well Not at all well Refused/Not Answered 4 8 N=1,033 IMG2 How important is each of the following qualities in a candidate for president? Civility Extremely/Very important 75 Extremely important 38 Very important 37 Moderately important 18 Slightly/Not at all important 5 Slightly important 3 Not at all important 2 Refused/Not Answered 2 42

43 IMG2 (Continued) How important is each of the following qualities in a candidate for president? Compassion Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 Honesty Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 43

44 IMG2 (Continued) How important is each of the following qualities in a candidate for president? Decisiveness Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 Likability Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 44

45 IMG2 (Continued) How important is each of the following qualities in a candidate for president? Competence Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important Slightly/Not at all important Slightly important Not at all important Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 Their positions on the issue Extremely/Very important Extremely important Very important Moderately important 8 7 Slightly/Not at all important 3 4 Slightly important 1 2 Not at all important 2 1 Refused/Not Answered 3 4 N=1,033 45

46 CUR_CvT. If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the nominees for president in November, regardless of whom you might support, which candidate would you trust to do a better job of: Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Both Neither Refused Handling the economy Handling immigration Protecting the country Handling health care Handling the U.S. image abroad Filling Supreme Court vacancies Handling international trade Handling the threat posed by the Islamic State group Creating jobs Working with Congress Making America great Handling gender equality CONV1. Which of the following comes closest to your position about who should win the Republican Party s nomination for president if one candidate has a lead but no candidate has a majority of delegates to the party s convention after all states have held their primaries or caucuses? The candidate with the most delegates should be the nominee, even if he doesn t have a majority 46 It would be acceptable for delegates for other candidates to choose a different nominee 49 Refused/Not Answered 5 46

47 PV1. Do you think it is generally acceptable or unacceptable for people to stage a protest: Acceptable Unacceptable Refused At a political candidate s rally With the intention of preventing a political candidate from speaking PV2. How closely have you been following news about confrontations between protesters and supporters of Donald Trump s presidential campaign at some recent rallies? Extremely/Very closely 27 Extremely closely 9 Very closely 18 Somewhat closely 37 Not too/not closely at all 34 Not too closely 21 Not closely at all 14 Refused/Not Answered 2 47

48 PV3. Based on what you ve heard, how much responsibility do you think each of the following bears for confrontations between protesters and supporters at some of Trump s campaign rallies turning violent? A lot/ a little A lot of responsibility A little responsibility No responsibility Anti-Trump protesters Trump s supporters Trump himself Refused CL1. How closely have you been following news about a charge being filed over an incident between Donald Trump s campaign manager and a reporter in early March? Extremely/Very closely 22 Extremely closely 8 Very closely 14 Somewhat closely 30 Not too/not closely at all 45 Not too closely 21 Not closely at all 24 Refused/Not Answered 2 48

49 CL2. As you may know, Donald Trump s campaign manager was charged with battery involving a reporter after a campaign event in early March. Based on what you ve heard, do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump has handled this incident? Total approve 17 Strongly approve 7 Somewhat approve 9 Neither approve nor disapprove 36 Total disapprove 46 Somewhat disapprove 15 Strongly disapprove 31 Refused/Not Answered 2 CL3. Do you think the charge against Trump s campaign manager is justified or not justified based on the available evidence? Justified 49 Not justified 46 Refused/Not Answered 5 49

50 CL4. Based on what you ve heard, do you think Trump should fire his campaign manager, only fire him if he is convicted of a crime, or not fire him? Fire him right away 30 Only fire him if he is convicted of a crime 45 Not fire him 20 Refused/Not Answered 4 B1a/b/ba. How would you describe the nation s economy these days. [IF NEITHER OR REFUSED/NOT ANSWERED] If you had to choose, do you lean more towards the nation s economy being good or the nation s economy being poor? [NOTE: BEGINNING IN DECEMBER, 2013, RESPONDENTS WHO DECLINE TO LEAN ARE SHOWN THIS QUESTION AGAIN INCLUDING A DO NOT LEAN EITHER WAY RESPONSE OPTION] 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Total good Very good Somewhat good Lean toward good Neither Don t lean * * * * * 1 1 * 1 1 Total poor Lean toward poor Somewhat poor Very poor Refused/Not Answered * * 1 * * * 1 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 50

51 B2. And would you describe the financial situation in your own household these days as good, poor, or neither good nor poor? [IF GOOD, ASK:] Is that very good or somewhat good? [IF POOR, ASK:] Is that very poor or somewhat poor? [IF NEITHER, ASK:] If you had to choose, do you lean more toward good or poor? 12/4-8/14 2/16-20/12* 12/8-12/11 10/13-17/11 8/18-22/11 6/16-20/11 5/5-9/11 3/24-28/11 1/5-10/11 11/3-8/10 10/13-18/10 10/13-18/10 9/8-13/10 8/11-16/10 6/9-14/10 5/7-11/10 Total good Very good Somewhat good Neither lean good Neither Don t lean * * Total poor Neither lean poor Somewhat poor Very poor Don t know na na * * - * * * - - * * * * * * * Refused 1 2 * 1 * * * * * * 1 * * * * * * N=1,010 N=1,000 N=1,000 N=1,000 N=1,000 N=1,001 N=1,001 N=1,001 N=1,001 N=1,000 N=1,501 N=846 N=1,000 N=1,007 N=1,044 N=1,002 51

52 ECO41. In the past month, do you think the economy has 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 1/17-21/14 12/5-9/13 10/3-7/13* 4/11-15/13 Gotten better Gotten worse Stayed about the same Don t know [VOL] na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 3 Refused/Not Answered * N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 N=1,012 N=1,060 N=1,367 N=1,227 N=1,004 CCON1. How do you expect the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months? Will it? 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Total Better A lot better A little better Stay about the same Total Worse A little worse A lot worse Refused/Not Answered /29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 52

53 CCON2. How do you expect the general economic situation in this country will change over the next 12 months? Will it 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Get better A lot better A little better Stay about the same Get worse A little worse A lot worse Refused/Not Answered /29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 CCON3. Compared with the past 12 months, how do you think consumer prices will change in the next 12 months? Will they 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Increase more rapidly Increase at the same rate Increase at a slower rate Stay about the same Fall Refused/Not Answered /29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 53

54 CCON4. Thinking about making major purchases such as furniture or electronic devices, do you think now is a? 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 1/29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 A good time to buy Neither a good nor bad time to buy A bad time to buy Refused/Not Answered N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 CCON5. Thinking of the general economic situation, do you think that now is a 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Total Good Time to Save Very good time to save Fairly good time to save Total Bad Time to Save Fairly bad time to save Very bad time to save Refused/Not Answered /29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 54

55 CCON6. How do you expect the number of people who are unemployed in this country to change over the next 12 months? Will it. 12/3-7/15 7/9-13/15 4/23-27/15 Total Increase Sharply increase Slightly increase Remain the same Total Decrease Slightly decrease Sharply decrease Refused/Not Answered * /29-2/2/15 12/4-8/14 7/24-28/14 5/16-19/14 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=1,027 N=1,004 N=1,077 N=1,045 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 55

56 Supreme1. How closely have you been following news about the vacancy on the Supreme Court after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia? Extremely/Very closely 22 Extremely closely 10 Very closely 12 Somewhat closely 31 Not too/not closely at all 44 Not too closely 22 Not closely at all 23 Refused/Not Answered 3 Supreme3. As you may know, President Obama has nominated Judge Merrick Garland to replace Justice Scalia on the Supreme Court. Which of the following comes closer to your opinion on what the U.S. Senate should do now that President Obama has made a nomination for the Supreme Court vacancy? Hold hearings and vote on Judge Garland s nomination 64 Refuse to hold hearings so that the next president can make the nomination 32 Refused/Not Answered 4 56

57 Supreme4. If the Senate votes on Judge Garland s nomination, would you prefer that the Senate vote to confirm him as a Supreme Court justice, or not? Vote to confirm 59 Vote not to confirm 36 Refused/Not Answered 5 NCC8. Do you favor or oppose providing a legal way for illegal immigrants already in the United States to become U.S. citizens? 12/3-7/15 4/23-27/15 12/4-8/14 Total Favor Strongly favor Somewhat favor Total Oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Refused/Not answered /24-28/14 5/16-19/14 3/20-24/14 1/17-21/14 12/5-9/13 N=1,033 N=1,007 N=519 N=1,010 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 N=1,044 N=1,354 N=1,012 N=1,060 N=1,367 57

58 IM25c. Do you favor or oppose temporarily banning all Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States? Total Favor Strongly favor Somewhat favor Total Oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Refused/Not answered 3 3 N=1,033 58

59 TRADE1. Do you think free trade agreements with other countries are generally good or bad for the American economy, or don t make much difference either way? Good for the economy 33 Don t make much difference 37 Bad for the economy 27 Refused/Not Answered 3 TRADE2. Do you think free trade agreements with other countries generally increase or decrease the number of jobs available to American workers, or don t make much difference either way? Increase 11 Don t make much difference 40 Decrease 46 Refused/Not Answered 3 59

60 TRADE3. Do you think free trade agreements with other countries generally increase or decrease wages for American workers, or don t make much difference either way? Increase 6 Don t make much difference 48 Decrease 43 Refused/Not Answered 2 TRADE4. Which of the following best describes you? I only buy items made in the United States, even if they cost more or are more difficult to find 9 I would like to buy items made in the United States, but they are often too costly or difficult to find 71 I don t feel strongly about buying items that are made in the United States 17 Refused/Not Answered 3 60

61 TRADE5. Say that you were buying a new pair of pants, and had the option to purchase one made in another country for $50, or one that was made in the United States for $85. Which would you be more likely to purchase? The cheaper pair of pants made in another country 67 The more expensive pair of pants made in the United States 30 Refused/Not Answered 3 TRADE6. Do you personally have a close friend or relative who has lost a job because it was moved overseas, or not? Yes, I do 18 No, I do not 81 Refused/Not Answered 1 61

62 TERR1. How would you rate the current risk of a terrorist attack happening inside the United States? 12/3-7/15 Extremely/very high risk Extremely high risk Somewhat high risk Moderate risk Extremely/very low risk Somewhat low risk Extremely low risk Refused/Not Answered * 2 1 * 1/29-2/2/15 N=1,007 N=1,045 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 ISIS1. How closely have you been following news about the U.S. military action in Syria and Iraq against the group known as the Islamic State? 12/3-7/15 1/29-2/2/15 Extremely/very closely Extremely closely Very closely Somewhat closely Not too/not at all closely Not too closely Not at all closely Refused/Not Answered N=1,007 N=1,045 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 62

63 ISIS2. Overall, would you say the U.S. military response in Syria and Iraq to the group known as the Islamic State has: 12/3-7/15 Gone too far Been about right Not gone far enough Refused/Not Answered N=1,007 N=1,608 N=1,385 N=968 N=1,845 N=1,541 N=958 63

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