EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, March 29 at noon

Transcription

1 The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from March 22, 2018 to March 25, 2018 among a sample of 1,014 respondents. The landline total respondents were 408 and there were 606 of cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/-3.7 at the 95% confidence level. The design effect is More information about SSRS can be obtained by visiting Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the March 31-April 2, 2006 survey and ending with the April 22-25, 2017 survey are from surveys conducted by ORC International. Results before March 31, 2006 are from surveys conducted by Gallup. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, March 29 at

2 Changing topics Q19. As you may have heard, Donald Trump has decided to run for re-election. Please just give me your best guess, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2020, or do you think he will lose? Will win Will lose No Opinion March 22-25, % 54% 6% CNN/TIME TREND FOR COMPARISON Will win Will lose No opinion Mar 19-21, 2010** 44% 54% 2% Jan. 5, 1995** 24% 65% 11% **QUESTION WORDING: Mar 19-21, Please give me your best guess -- if Barack Obama decides to run for re-election, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2012, or do you think he will lose? Jan. 5, Please give me your best guess -- if Bill Clinton decides to run for re-election, do you think he will win the presidential election in 1996, or do you think he will

3 (Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning; N=490) Q20. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential nomination in For each one, please tell me whether you would be very, somewhat, not very, or not to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic nomination for 2020? Former Vice President Joe Biden Very/ NET Very Not very/not NET Not very Not No Opinion March 22-25, % 56% 28% 14% 8% 6% 3% Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders Very/ NET Very Not very/not NET Not very Not No Opinion March 22-25, % 46% 30% 22% 12% 9% 3% Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren Very/ NET Very Not very/not NET Not very Not No Opinion March 22-25, % 33% 35% 24% 13% 11% 8% California Senator Kamala Harris Very/ NET Very Not very/not NET Not very Not No Opinion March 22-25, % 19% 34% 26% 15% 11% 21% New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Very/ NET Very Not very/not NET Not very Not No Opinion March 22-25, % 21% 29% 32% 17% 14% 18% New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand Very/ NET Very Not very/not NET Not very Not No Opinion March 22-25, % 10% 37% 33% 20% 13%

4 (Respondents who are Republicans/Republican-leaning, N=458) Q21. Do you think the Republican Party should re-nominate Donald Trump as the party's candidate for president in 2020, or do you think the Republican Party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? Re-nominate Trump Different candidate No Opinion March 22-25, % 20% 4% CNN/TIME TREND FOR COMPARISON Re-nominate Different Candidate candidate No opinion Mar 19-21, 2010** 76% 20% 4% November 9-10, 1994** 57% 32% 11% **QUESTION WORDING: Mar 19-21, Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012? November 9-10, : Do you think the Democratic party should re-nominate Bill Clinton as the party s candidate in 1996 or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for President in

5 (Asked of respondents who believe the Republican Party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020, N=85) Q22. While we know it is early and most candidates have not announced their candidacies yet, which candidate in particular would you prefer to see the Republican Party nominate for president instead of Donald Trump in 2020? (RECORD EXACT RESPONSE) COMBO TABLE Q21/Q22: March 22-25, 2018 Re-nominate Trump 75% Different candidate 20% Mike Pence 1% Mitt Romney 1% Paul Ryan 1% Ted Cruz 1% Oprah Winfrey 1% Trey Gowdy 1% John Kasich * Colin Powell * Other name given 3% Not Trump/No name given 4% Not sure/no name given 1% Refused 6% No opinion

6 MORE ON METHODOLOGY A total of 1,014 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 29% described themselves as Democrats, 25% described themselves as Republicans, and 46% described themselves as independents or members of another party. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. For the sample of 913 registered voters, it is +/-3.8 percentage points. Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/-8.5 percentage points or less once adjusted for design effect. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a design-effect adjusted sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with

7 TABLE 046 Q19. As you may have heard, Donald Trump has decided to run for re-election. Please just give me your best guess, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2020, or do you think he will lose? Base: Total Respondents Will win 40% 46% 34% 45% 28% 82% 8% Will lose 54% 47% 61% 49% 67% 13% 87% Don't know/undecided/refused 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Sampling Error (+/-) Will win 40% 31% 43% 46% 39% 35% 43% Will lose 54% 64% 50% 48% 57% 60% 51% Don't know/undecided/refused 6% 5% 7% 6% 4% 5% 6% Sampling Error (+/-) Will win 40% 34% 43% 40% 38% 48% 41% Will lose 54% 60% 52% 54% 57% 46% 55% Don't know/undecided/refused 6% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 4% Sampling Error (+/-) Will win 40% 8% 39% 79% 13% 36% 65% Will lose 54% 87% 54% 18% 82% 57% 31% Don't know/undecided/refused 6% 5% 7% 3% 5% 7% 3% Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Will win 40% 11% 75% 42% 37% 47% Will lose 54% 84% 20% 52% 59% 47% Don't know/undecided/refused 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% Sampling Error (+/-)

8 TABLE 054 Q20A. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential nomination in For each one, please tell me whether you would be very, somewhat, not very, or not to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic nomination for 2020? First/Next Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders? Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning Likely (Net) 75% 72% 78% 75% N/A N/A 76% Very 46% 41% 49% 44% N/A N/A 48% 30% 31% 29% 32% N/A N/A 29% Not (Net) 22% 25% 20% 23% N/A N/A 21% Not very 12% 15% 10% 12% N/A N/A 13% Not 9% 9% 9% 11% N/A N/A 8% Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 3% 3% 2% N/A N/A 3% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 75% N/A N/A N/A N/A 84% 66% Very 46% N/A N/A N/A N/A 57% 34% 30% N/A N/A N/A N/A 27% 33% Not (Net) 22% N/A N/A N/A N/A 14% 30% Not very 12% N/A N/A N/A N/A 6% 19% Not 9% N/A N/A N/A N/A 8% 11% Don't know/undecided/refused 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A 3% 3% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 75% 76% 76% 76% 73% N/A N/A Very 46% 49% 44% 50% 37% N/A N/A 30% 27% 32% 26% 36% N/A N/A Not (Net) 22% 21% 23% 20% 25% N/A N/A Not very 12% 11% 14% 11% 15% N/A N/A Not 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 3% 1% 4% 1% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 75% 75% 75% 0% 79% N/A N/A Very 46% 46% 45% 0% 49% N/A N/A 30% 29% 31% 0% 30% N/A N/A Not (Net) 22% 21% 24% 0% 18% N/A N/A Not very 12% 13% 11% 0% 14% N/A N/A Not 9% 7% 13% 0% 4% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 5% 1% 0% 3% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Likely (Net) 75% 75% 0% 75% 74% N/A Very 46% 46% 0% 46% 41% N/A 30% 30% 0% 30% 33% N/A Not (Net) 22% 22% 0% 22% 25% N/A Not very 12% 12% 0% 12% 17% N/A Not 9% 9% 0% 10% 8% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 3% 0% 3% 2% N/A Sampling Error (+/-)

9 TABLE 055 Q20B. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential nomination in For each one, please tell me whether you would be very, somewhat, not very, or not to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic nomination for 2020? First/Next Former Vice President Joe Biden? Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning Likely (Net) 84% 83% 84% 84% N/A N/A 86% Very 56% 53% 58% 52% N/A N/A 58% 28% 30% 26% 32% N/A N/A 28% Not (Net) 14% 15% 13% 14% N/A N/A 12% Not very 8% 8% 8% 9% N/A N/A 7% Not 6% 7% 5% 5% N/A N/A 4% Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 2% 3% 2% N/A N/A 2% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 84% N/A N/A N/A N/A 81% 86% Very 56% N/A N/A N/A N/A 52% 60% 28% N/A N/A N/A N/A 29% 26% Not (Net) 14% N/A N/A N/A N/A 15% 12% Not very 8% N/A N/A N/A N/A 9% 6% Not 6% N/A N/A N/A N/A 6% 6% Don't know/undecided/refused 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A 4% 1% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 84% 80% 87% 84% 84% N/A N/A Very 56% 51% 61% 56% 56% N/A N/A 28% 29% 27% 28% 27% N/A N/A Not (Net) 14% 16% 12% 14% 14% N/A N/A Not very 8% 8% 8% 7% 10% N/A N/A Not 6% 8% 4% 7% 3% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 4% * 3% 3% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 84% 87% 78% 0% 86% N/A N/A Very 56% 62% 48% 0% 56% N/A N/A 28% 26% 30% 0% 30% N/A N/A Not (Net) 14% 10% 20% 0% 11% N/A N/A Not very 8% 5% 11% 0% 6% N/A N/A Not 6% 4% 8% 0% 4% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 3% 3% 0% 4% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Likely (Net) 84% 84% 0% 85% 88% N/A Very 56% 56% 0% 57% 64% N/A 28% 28% 0% 28% 24% N/A Not (Net) 14% 14% 0% 14% 12% N/A Not very 8% 8% 0% 8% 10% N/A Not 6% 6% 0% 5% 2% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 3% 3% 0% 2% * N/A Sampling Error (+/-)

10 TABLE 056 Q20C. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential nomination in For each one, please tell me whether you would be very, somewhat, not very, or not to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic nomination for 2020? First/Next Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren? Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning Likely (Net) 68% 69% 68% 72% N/A N/A 71% Very 33% 30% 35% 39% N/A N/A 36% 35% 39% 33% 33% N/A N/A 34% Not (Net) 24% 26% 22% 23% N/A N/A 21% Not very 13% 17% 10% 12% N/A N/A 12% Not 11% 9% 12% 11% N/A N/A 9% Don't know/undecided/refused 8% 6% 10% 5% N/A N/A 8% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 68% N/A N/A N/A N/A 72% 64% Very 33% N/A N/A N/A N/A 33% 32% 35% N/A N/A N/A N/A 39% 32% Not (Net) 24% N/A N/A N/A N/A 18% 30% Not very 13% N/A N/A N/A N/A 10% 17% Not 11% N/A N/A N/A N/A 8% 13% Don't know/undecided/refused 8% N/A N/A N/A N/A 10% 6% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 68% 63% 75% 66% 72% N/A N/A Very 33% 29% 39% 30% 39% N/A N/A 35% 35% 36% 36% 33% N/A N/A Not (Net) 24% 27% 20% 25% 21% N/A N/A Not very 13% 12% 13% 12% 14% N/A N/A Not 11% 15% 7% 13% 7% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 8% 9% 5% 9% 7% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 68% 70% 66% 0% 75% N/A N/A Very 33% 36% 28% 0% 46% N/A N/A 35% 34% 38% 0% 28% N/A N/A Not (Net) 24% 20% 28% 0% 16% N/A N/A Not very 13% 12% 15% 0% 11% N/A N/A Not 11% 9% 14% 0% 5% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 8% 10% 6% 0% 10% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Likely (Net) 68% 68% 0% 71% 78% N/A Very 33% 33% 0% 37% 39% N/A 35% 35% 0% 34% 39% N/A Not (Net) 24% 24% 0% 21% 19% N/A Not very 13% 13% 0% 12% 12% N/A Not 11% 11% 0% 9% 7% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 8% 8% 0% 7% 3% N/A Sampling Error (+/-)

11 TABLE 057 Q20D. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential nomination in For each one, please tell me whether you would be very, somewhat, not very, or not to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic nomination for 2020? First/Next California Senator Kamala Harris? Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning Likely (Net) 53% 52% 54% 53% N/A N/A 55% Very 19% 16% 22% 24% N/A N/A 21% 34% 36% 32% 29% N/A N/A 34% Not (Net) 26% 30% 23% 27% N/A N/A 24% Not very 15% 18% 12% 15% N/A N/A 14% Not 11% 12% 11% 12% N/A N/A 10% Don't know/undecided/refused 21% 18% 23% 20% N/A N/A 22% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 53% N/A N/A N/A N/A 59% 46% Very 19% N/A N/A N/A N/A 21% 17% 34% N/A N/A N/A N/A 38% 29% Not (Net) 26% N/A N/A N/A N/A 19% 33% Not very 15% N/A N/A N/A N/A 12% 17% Not 11% N/A N/A N/A N/A 7% 16% Don't know/undecided/refused 21% N/A N/A N/A N/A 22% 21% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 53% 53% 57% 51% 57% N/A N/A Very 19% 16% 25% 16% 25% N/A N/A 34% 37% 32% 35% 32% N/A N/A Not (Net) 26% 28% 24% 28% 22% N/A N/A Not very 15% 15% 15% 14% 16% N/A N/A Not 11% 13% 8% 14% 6% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 21% 19% 19% 21% 21% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 53% 56% 49% 0% 59% N/A N/A Very 19% 24% 13% 0% 27% N/A N/A 34% 32% 36% 0% 32% N/A N/A Not (Net) 26% 20% 33% 0% 19% N/A N/A Not very 15% 11% 19% 0% 12% N/A N/A Not 11% 9% 15% 0% 7% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 21% 23% 17% 0% 22% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Likely (Net) 53% 53% 0% 55% 64% N/A Very 19% 19% 0% 22% 29% N/A 34% 34% 0% 34% 35% N/A Not (Net) 26% 26% 0% 24% 21% N/A Not very 15% 15% 0% 14% 10% N/A Not 11% 11% 0% 10% 10% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 21% 21% 0% 20% 15% N/A Sampling Error (+/-)

12 TABLE 058 Q20E. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential nomination in For each one, please tell me whether you would be very, somewhat, not very, or not to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic nomination for 2020? First/Next New Jersey Senator Cory Booker? Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning Likely (Net) 50% 56% 47% 53% N/A N/A 52% Very 21% 25% 18% 20% N/A N/A 22% 29% 31% 28% 32% N/A N/A 29% Not (Net) 32% 32% 31% 30% N/A N/A 30% Not very 17% 19% 16% 16% N/A N/A 18% Not 14% 13% 16% 14% N/A N/A 12% Don't know/undecided/refused 18% 12% 22% 18% N/A N/A 18% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 50% N/A N/A N/A N/A 48% 53% Very 21% N/A N/A N/A N/A 17% 25% 29% N/A N/A N/A N/A 31% 28% Not (Net) 32% N/A N/A N/A N/A 31% 32% Not very 17% N/A N/A N/A N/A 18% 16% Not 14% N/A N/A N/A N/A 13% 16% Don't know/undecided/refused 18% N/A N/A N/A N/A 21% 15% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 50% 47% 55% 47% 57% N/A N/A Very 21% 17% 26% 18% 26% N/A N/A 29% 30% 30% 29% 30% N/A N/A Not (Net) 32% 34% 30% 32% 30% N/A N/A Not very 17% 17% 19% 16% 19% N/A N/A Not 14% 18% 11% 16% 12% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 18% 19% 14% 20% 13% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 50% 54% 46% 0% 57% N/A N/A Very 21% 24% 17% 0% 26% N/A N/A 29% 30% 29% 0% 30% N/A N/A Not (Net) 32% 27% 38% 0% 24% N/A N/A Not very 17% 16% 19% 0% 14% N/A N/A Not 14% 11% 20% 0% 10% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 18% 19% 15% 0% 19% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Likely (Net) 50% 50% 0% 52% 59% N/A Very 21% 21% 0% 21% 26% N/A 29% 29% 0% 31% 34% N/A Not (Net) 32% 32% 0% 31% 30% N/A Not very 17% 17% 0% 18% 19% N/A Not 14% 14% 0% 13% 12% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 18% 18% 0% 17% 10% N/A Sampling Error (+/-)

13 TABLE 059 Q20F. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential nomination in For each one, please tell me whether you would be very, somewhat, not very, or not to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic nomination for 2020? First/Next New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning Likely (Net) 48% 48% 48% 51% N/A N/A 47% Very 10% 9% 11% 10% N/A N/A 10% 37% 39% 36% 41% N/A N/A 37% Not (Net) 33% 35% 31% 28% N/A N/A 33% Not very 20% 23% 18% 20% N/A N/A 21% Not 13% 12% 14% 9% N/A N/A 12% Don't know/undecided/refused 19% 17% 21% 20% N/A N/A 20% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 48% N/A N/A N/A N/A 53% 43% Very 10% N/A N/A N/A N/A 12% 9% 37% N/A N/A N/A N/A 41% 34% Not (Net) 33% N/A N/A N/A N/A 28% 38% Not very 20% N/A N/A N/A N/A 18% 22% Not 13% N/A N/A N/A N/A 10% 16% Don't know/undecided/refused 19% N/A N/A N/A N/A 19% 20% Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 48% 51% 48% 46% 51% N/A N/A Very 10% 11% 10% 10% 12% N/A N/A 37% 40% 38% 36% 39% N/A N/A Not (Net) 33% 32% 34% 34% 30% N/A N/A Not very 20% 16% 22% 19% 21% N/A N/A Not 13% 15% 11% 15% 9% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 19% 17% 19% 20% 19% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Likely (Net) 48% 46% 50% 0% 53% N/A N/A Very 10% 10% 11% 0% 14% N/A N/A 37% 36% 39% 0% 38% N/A N/A Not (Net) 33% 31% 35% 0% 25% N/A N/A Not very 20% 20% 20% 0% 18% N/A N/A Not 13% 11% 15% 0% 7% N/A N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 19% 22% 15% 0% 22% N/A N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Likely (Net) 48% 48% 0% 49% 52% N/A Very 10% 10% 0% 10% 13% N/A 37% 37% 0% 39% 39% N/A Not (Net) 33% 33% 0% 33% 33% N/A Not very 20% 20% 0% 21% 20% N/A Not 13% 13% 0% 12% 13% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 19% 19% 0% 19% 15% N/A Sampling Error (+/-)

14 TABLE 060 Q21. Do you think the Republican party should renominate Donald Trump as the party's candidate for president in 2020 or do you think the Republican party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? Base: Respondents who are Republican/Republican-leaning Renominate Trump 75% 79% N/A 77% N/A 86% N/A Different candidate 20% 16% N/A 19% N/A 10% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 4% 5% N/A 4% N/A 4% N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Renominate Trump 75% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 80% Different candidate 20% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 16% Don't know/undecided/refused 4% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4% Sampling Error (+/-) Renominate Trump 75% N/A 75% 74% 77% 76% N/A Different candidate 20% N/A 21% 21% 20% 19% N/A Don't know/undecided/refused 4% N/A 4% 5% 3% 5% N/A Sampling Error (+/-) Renominate Trump 75% 0% N/A 79% N/A N/A 80% Different candidate 20% 0% N/A 18% N/A N/A 16% Don't know/undecided/refused 4% 0% N/A 3% N/A N/A 4% Sampling Error (+/-) Total crat lican voter g. g. Renominate Trump 75% 0% 75% 77% N/A 74% Different candidate 20% 0% 20% 19% N/A 21% Don't know/undecided/refused 4% 0% 4% 4% N/A 5% Sampling Error (+/-)