America s Diversity Explosion: What it means for Presidential Politics. WILLIAM H. FREY Brookings Institution and University of Michigan

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1 America s Diversity Explosion: What it means for Presidential Politics r WILLIAM H. FREY Brookings Institution and University of Michigan

2 Millions 225 U.S. White and Minority Populations, WHITES MINORITIES Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census data

3 Diversity by generation: From the bottom up By generation: From the bottom up By dispersal: From the melting pots out

4 Age 85+ Cultural Generation Gap: U.S. Population Compositions by Age and Race, Under 5 Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics 2+ races Other races Source: American Community Survey, 2015

5 Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanic Destinations Hispanic Concentration modest growth Hispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by less than 43% between 2000 & 2010 Hispanic Concentration fast growth Hispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 43% between 2000 & 2010 New Hispanic destinations Hispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 86% between 2000 & 2010 Source: 2010 U.S. Census

6 America s Racial Kaleidoscope: Counties where minorities are overrepresented Black Hispanic Asian Other minority Two or more minority groups None Source: 2010 U.S. Census

7 Minority percentage of population % 40-49% 30-39% 20-29% 10-19% 0-9%

8 Melting pot cities and suburbs Reduced neighborhood segregation Multiracial marriage and identity Extending the political battleground

9 1 Demographics of elections through Demographics of the 2016 election 3 Implications for future presidential elections

10 Percent Eligible Voters by Race, % 10% 11% 12% 3% 4% 4% 12% 5% 12% 12% 12% % % 71% 69% White Black Asian Latino Other races Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 Supplements

11 Turnout rate 80 Voter turnout by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008, 2012 Supplements WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS

12 Voting margin by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections Margin More Democratic WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS More Republican Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN

13 Voting margin by age group, 2012 Margin More Democratic Ages Ages Ages Ages WHITES MINORITIES TOTAL More Republican Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN

14 Presidential election results Source: America s Electoral Future, Brookings/CAP/AEI, February 2016 Democrat win, due to whites and minorities Democrat win, due to minorities but not whites Republican win

15 1 Demographics of elections through Demographics of the 2016 election 3 Implications for future presidential elections

16 States won by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, 2016 Election Clinton (D) win due to whites and minorities Clinton (D) win due to minorities but not whites Trump (R) win Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center (

17 Voter Turnout by Race 2012 and % 70% 60% 64% 65% 66% 60% 50% 48% 48% 47% 49% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Source: Current Population Survey, November 2012 and 2016 Supplements

18 Voting margins by race, 2012 and More Democratic WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS More Republican

19 White vote margins by education, More Republican White, college White, non-college

20 Percent of white residents without college degree < 30% 30% < - 40% % % 50% % > 60 > 60%

21 White vote margins in Midwestern swing states, 2012 and More Republican Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin

22 Population Profiles of Counties that Voted for Trump and Clinton* TRUMP COUNTIES Age 85+ Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age <15 CLINTON COUNTIES Age 85+ Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age <15 Whites Minorities (Millions) (Millions) Whites Minorities Source: Author s analysis of David Leip s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections in 2016 and U.S. census population estimates, *Refers to total population (in millions) residing in counties that voted for Trump or Clinton.

23 Democratic-over-Republican Margin, by Age Group, 2016 Margin* Ages Ages Ages Ages Whites Minorities Total Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center ( *Margin is defined by percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent voting for Republican candidate.

24 1 Demographics of elections through Demographics of the 2016 election 3 Implications for future presidential elections

25 Projections for eligible voters by race 20 Hispanic Percent of Eligible Voters African-American Asians and others Source: Brookings, Diversity Explosion, 2018

26 Percent of eligible voters by age (%) Percent of Eligible Voters Source: Brookings, Diversity Explosion, 2018

27 Millions Projected Eligible Voters, by Race and Age, 2016 and Ages Ages Ages Ages 65+ Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics Other races Source: Current Population Survey, November 2016 Supplement; author s calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau projections.

28 Minority Eligible Voters (%) < 30% 30% - 40% 40% - 50% 50% - 60% > 60%

29 Election results assuming 2016 voting patterns Source: America s Electoral Future, Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center

30 Voting Margins by Race More Democrat White Black Latino Asian More Republican Presidential 2018 House

31 White Margins by Age More Democrat 13 0 Age Age More Republican Age Age Presidential 2018 House

32 White Margins by Education and Gender More Democrat 20 7 Non college men More Republican Non college women College men College women Presidential 2018 House

33 Election results assuming Non-college white swing to Republicans (+10 pts) Source: America s Electoral Future, Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center

34 America s Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America r WILLIAM H. FREY Brookings Institution and University of Michigan

35 The Impact of Changing Demographics On American Politics Recent and Future Presidential Elections WILLIAM H. FREY University of Michigan and The Brookings Institution