South Africa: Seeds of Electoral Change?

Transcription

1 South Africa: Seeds of Electoral Change? IPSA conference Poznań, Poland 16 Robert Mattes University of Cape Town Collette Schulz Herzenberg Stellenbosch University 1

2 The Problem 2

3 ANC Electoral Victories ANC NP/NNP Inkatha DP/DA COPE EFF 3

4 Usual Inferences of Causes of One Party Dominance 1. High and relatively stable levels of voter enthusiasm for ANC 2. High levels of voter loyalty 3. Loyalty almost impervious to economic and political performance 4. Non-performance bases of support 5. Ethnic / Racial Census voting 4

5 Usual Inferences of Causes of One Party Dominance 6. BUT: Aggregate election results can be misleading a. Voter participation (registration; turnout; party switchers; vote splitting) b. Partisan identification c. Campaign participation d. Media use e. Views of political parties (trust, competence, inclusivity, leader popularity) f. Cognition g. Social context h. Economic performance evaluations 5

6 Voter Participation 6

7 Voter Registration Proportion of VAP Registered

8 Voter Registration Registration (in Millions)

9 Voter Registration Registration (in Milliions) Voting Age Population (in Millions)

10 Voter registration, VAP and turnout Registration (in Milliions) Voting Age Population (in Millions) Election Day Voters (turnout in Millions)

11 Voter Turnout, The Standard View Proportion of Registered Voters Voting

12 Voter Turnout The Standard View Reconsidered Proportion of Registered Voters Voting Proportion of Voting Age Population Voting

13 Self-Reported Turnout (by Party Identification) ANC Identifiers Opposition Identifiers Independents

14 Voter Turnout and ANC Electoral Support ANC Vote Proportion VAP Turnout

15 ANC Electoral Support ANC Vote Proportion ANC % of VAP

16 DA Electoral Support DP/DA Vote Proportion DP/DA % of VAP

17 Comparisons in Party Support Comparison % change 4-9 % change 9-14 Reg voters,674,926 23,181,997 25,39,15 12 Actual votes 15,863,554 17,919,966 18,654, ANC,88,915 11,65,748 11,436, DA 1,931,1 2,945,829 4,91,

18 Decomposing the South African Electorate VAP Voted ANC VAP Voted Opposition VAP Did Not Vote

19 Millions Registration by Age Group, years [59%] 3-39 years [8%] 4-49 years [86%] [93%] 6-69 [9%] 7-79 [94%] 8 plus [173%] Eligible voters Registered voters 19

20 Age Groups as Proportions of Registered Voters % 8+ 2% % % 15% % %

21 Split Tickets Split tickets % 21

22 Party Switchers Party switcher % 22

23 Contextualizing Voter Turnout in South Africa Lower than most other African elections Lower than most other developing economy democracies Surprising if only due to the high levels of public engagements in the struggle against apartheid And surprising given South Africa s Own Normative Commitments Participatory Democracy As A Pillar of ANC Goals South African Constitution Explicit Recognition of Participatory Democracy

24 Contextualizing Voter Turnout in South Africa Holding all other things equal, a country with South Africa s: Type of electoral system (Proportional Representation) -- 7% turnout Age of Democracy -- 69% turnout Level of Development -- 64% turnout Predominant Party System (>6% government support in two consecutive elections) -- 56% turnout

25 Partisan Identification 25

26 Partisan Identification (% Who Identify With Any Party) All Voters

27 Partisan Identification ( Which Party is that? ) ANC DP/DA COPE NNP IFP PAC ID UDM Other

28 Campaign Participation 28

29 Campaign Participation (% of All Eligible Voters) Voter turnout of VAP Interested / Very Interested In Campaign Attend Election Rally Contribute Money to Party Work For Political Party

30 Potential Impact of Campaign Always Intended On Voting That Way Before Campaign Started Least 1 Month Before Election Few Weeks Before Election Last Week Before Election 6 Election Day

31 Media Use 31

32 Media Use During Campaign - Newspapers Never / Infrequently 1-2 days a wk 3-4 days a wk Daily/almost every day 32

33 Media Use During Campaign - Radio Never/infrequently 1-2 days per wk 3-4 days per wk Daily/almost every day 33

34 Media Use During Campaign - TV Never/Infrequently 1-2 days a wk 3-4 days a wk Daily/almost every day 34

35 Media Use During Campaign - Internet Never/Infrequently 1-2 days per wk 3-4 days per wk Daily/Almost every day 35

36 Views of Political Parties 36

37 Perceived Inclusiveness of Political Parties ANC DA NNP UDM IFP COPE EFF

38 Perceived Inclusiveness of Parties, ANC DA COPE EFF UDM IFP ACDP NFP Agang FF+ All Don t Know Enough About Them One Group Only

39 Trust In Political Parties ANC DA NNP UDM IFP COPE

40 Party and Candidate Attributes 1. If voters become dissatisfied with the governing party, they will not necessarily vote for other political parties 2. Before they consider the policy positions of another party, they must be convinced of some basic traits of the party: a. Ability to Govern b. Trustworthiness c. Inclusiveness (a necessary but not sufficient condition for support)

41 Government Handling of Voter s Most Important Problem Handled MIP Well / Very Well Any Other Party Able To Do Better?

42 Perceived Competence of Opposition Parties Ability to Govern DA NNP UDM IFP ACDP FF+ COPE EFF

43 Cognition 43

44 Political Interest (% Very or Somewhat Interested) Political Interest 44

45 Social Networks 45

46 Campaign Discussion (% Often or Sometimes) Family Friends Neighbours Coworkers 46

47 Campaign Discussion (% Often or Sometimes) Spouse/Partner Primary discussant 47

48 Partisan Congruence (% Support Same Party as Respondent) Family Friends Neighbours Coworkers 48

49 Performance Evaluations: political and economic goods 49

50 Personal Economic Evaluations Personal Economic Conditions (Next Year) Personal Economic Situation (Present) Life Better Today Than Under Apartheid

51 National Economic Evaluations National Economic Situation (Next Year) National Economic Situation (Present) Country Going In Right Direction

52 Job Approval of Elected Leaders President Parliament Provincial Premier Local Govt Council

53 Performance Evaluations (Macro-Economic Management) Managing the Economy Keeping Prices Stable Creating Jobs

54 Performance Evaluations (Welfare and Development) Addressing Educational Needs Distributing Welfare Payments Delivering Household Water Improving Basic Health Services Combating HIV/AIDS Ensuring Everyone Has Enough to Eat

55 Performance Bases of ANC Support Presidential Job Approval ANC Identification

56 Performance Bases of ANC Support ANC Identification National Economic Optimism

57 Performance Bases of ANC Support ANC Identification Country Headed In Right Direction

58 One Party Dominance: A Different View 1. ANC vote shares are based on a significant, but not overwhelming base of brand loyalty / standing choice of partisan identification History of Apartheid and Demographic Geometry ANC Performance in Struggle 2. This identification fluctuates in very predictable ways with voter satisfaction with government and economic performance 3. There is a significant pool of independent / non-partisan voters 4. However, opposition voters have negative, or unknown images of opposition parties

59 One Party Dominance: A Different View Opposition problems are self-inflicted? Poor opposition party strategy Focus too much on policy positions, rather than image Often wait until short official campaign Opposition are victim of: ANC s ability to buy support through social welfare grants ANC s control over electoral rules Party funding formulae Unified elections Restrictions on television advertising (NB change in 9) ANC ability to frame opposition parties through state news media