A New Traffic Safety Paradigm Innovative Strategies For Achieving Ambitious Traffic Safety Goals

Transcription

1 A New Traffic Safety Paradigm Innovative Strategies For Achieving Ambitious Traffic Safety Goals Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute Presented CARSP Victoria, BC 11 June 2018

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12 New Traffic Safety Paradigm Factor Current New Goal Make vehicle travel safer. Make transportation systems safer. Risk measurement Solutions considered Analysis scope Distance-based, such as casualties per billion vehicle-kms or passenger-kms Targeted strategies that reduce special risks: Hotspot roadway improvements. Anti-impaired and distracted driving campaigns. Graduated licenses and senior driver testing. Vehicle design improvements. Seatbelt and helmet requirements Program costs and traffic safety benefits Total (all mode) traffic casualties per capita. Strategies that reduce special risks, plus vehicle-travel reduction strategies that reduce risk exposure: More multimodal planning (improved walking, cycling and public transit). More efficient transport pricing Smart Growth development policies Transportation demand management programs All economic, social and environmental impacts

13 Annual Traffic Deaths Canadian Traffic Deaths 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

14 Deaths per 100,000 Residents US Traffic Death Rate

15 Traffic Death and Fuel Price Trends

16 Global Urban Traffic Death Rates Delhi, 31.4 Jaipur, 37.1 Chennai, 32.9 Indore, 24.3 Pune, 30.7 Johannesburg, 18.9 Guadalajara, 26.8 Leon, 24.2 Curitiba, 21.8 Cuidad de Mexico, 19.1 Sao Paulo, 17.1 Belo Horizonte, 17.0 Bengaluru, 16.1 Kalkata, 15.7 Rio de Janeiro, 14.8 Montevidio, 14.0 Lima, 11.6 Porto Alegre, 10.5 Bogota, 9.1 Mumbai, 10.9 Surat, 9.4 Michigan City, 19.3 Ahmadabad, 7.8 Tuscaloosa, AL, 20.0 Atlanta, Hinesville, GA, 18.0 Joplin, MO, 17.3 Bakersfield, CA, 14.5 Chattanooga, 14.4 Jacksonville, NC, 14.0 Stockton, 10.9 Miami, 10.3 Riverside, CA, 10.8 Developing Developed but Sprawled Compact Compact and TDM Kansas City, MO, 10.1 Houston, 10.0 Los Angeles, 7.64 Chicago, 5.89 Washington DC, 4.37 New York, 3.49 Amsterdam, 3.36 London, 2.69 Paris, 3.09 Hong Kong, 2.1 Toyko, 1.7 Berlin, 1.6 Stockholm, 1.23 Developing Developed but Sprawled Compact Compact and TDM

17 Traffic Deaths per 100,000 Residents Per Capita Traffic Deaths

18 Traffic Fatalities Per 100,000 Pop. Vehicle Travel Vs. Traffic Deaths R 2 = ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Canada Denmark Germany Iceland Italy Japan Netherlands Norw ay Sw eden Sw itzerland United Kingdom United States Annual Vehicle Kilometers Per Capita 18

19 Crash Fatalities by Province

20 Deaths Per 100,000 Residents Crash Fatalities by U.S. State

21 Traffic Fatalities Per 100,000 Residents Crash Fatalities Vs. Vehicle Mileage 16 A state s per capita traffic death rate tends to increase with per capita vehicle travel, particularly in rural areas Rural Urban R² = ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Per Capital Annual Vehicle Mileage

22 New York City San Francisco Cleveland Boston Seattle San Diego Washington, DC Chicago Portland Columbus Hartford Raleigh Baltimore Buffalo Milwaukee Philadelphia Pittsburgh Minneapolis Los Angeles Denver Dallas San Jose Austin Columbus, Ohio Salt Lake City Mesa Aurora St. Louis Virginia Beach Fort Worth Cincinnati Phoenix Indianapolis Richmond Charlotte Nashville New Orleans Louisville Arlington Richmond Riverside Atlanta San Antonio Jacksonville Detroit Kansas City Houston Jacksonville, Fl Tampa Sacramento Birmingham Las Vegas Miami Glendale Memphis Traffic Deaths Per 100,000 Residents Crash Fatalities by City

23 US Cities Traffic Death Rates Among U.S. urban regions, and other geographic areas where data are available, there is a strong positive relationship between per capita annual mileage and traffic death rates. (EMBARQ 2012)

24 Annual Traffic Deaths Per 100,000 Residents Public Transit Increases Safety The Vancouver region has 3.7 traffic deaths per 100,000 residents, one of the lowest among North American cities. This results, in part, from high quality public transit and associated high transit ridership Vancouver R² = Annual Transit Trips Per Capita

25 Traffic Fatalities Per 100,000 Residents Traffic Fatalities Youth Total Youths (15-25 years old) have about twice the traffic fatality rates as the total population average R² = R² = Both total and youth fatality rates tend to decline with increased transit ridership. Transit-oriented cities average about half the traffic fatality rates as more automobile-oriented cities Annual Transit Trips Per Capita, 2012

26 Annual Traffic Deaths Per 100,000 Res. Smart Growth Safety Impacts Most Sprawled Smartest Growth New York County, NY Kings County, NY Bronx County, NY Queens County, NY San Francisco County, CA Hudson County, NJ Philadelphia County, PA Suffolk County, MA Richmond County, NY Baltimore city, MD Stokes County, NC Miami County, KS Davie County, NC Isanti County, MN Walton County, GA Yadkin County, NC Goochland County, VA Fulton County, OH Clinton County, MI Geauga County, OH

27 Traffic Deaths per 1000,000 Residents Safety In Numbers R² = % 5% 10% 15% 20% Active Mode Commute Share Per capita traffic death rates tend to decline as active (walking and cycling) commute mode shares increase in U.S. urban regions. This and other research indicate that more active travel tends to increase overall traffic safety.

28 What About Autonomous Vehicles? How will autonomous vehicles affect people s lives, and transport planning issues such crash rates?

29 Safety Impacts Advocates predict that, because human error contributes to 90% of all traffic crashes, autonomous vehicles will reduce crashes by 90%. This overlooks additional risks these technologies introduce. Hardware and software failures. Complex electronic systems can fail. Self-driving vehicles will certainly have errors that cause crashes; the question is how frequently. Malicious hacking. Self-driving technologies can be manipulated for amusement or crime. Increased risk-taking. When travellers feel safer they tend to take additional risks, for example, reduced seatbelt use and less caution by other road users. Platooning risks. Many potential benefits, such as reduced congestion and pollution emissions, require platooning. This can introduce new risks. Increased total vehicle travel. Autonomous driving may increase total vehicle travel and therefore crashes.

30 Travel Impacts Increases Vehicle Travel Provides vehicle travel to non-drivers (people who are disabled, young or impaired). Increased convenience and productivity increases travel. Empty vehicle travel when dropping off or picking up passengers Encourage sprawled development. Reduces Vehicle Travel Convenient shared vehicle services reduce vehicle ownership and use. Increases vehicle ownership and operating costs. Self-driving buses improve transit services. Reduced traffic risk and parking facilities make urban living more attractive. Reduces traffic congestion and vehicle operating costs. Reduces some vehicle travel, such as cruising for parking. Autonomous driving can increase vehicle travel in some ways and reduce it in others. Total impacts will depend on the public policies implemented in a jurisdiction. This will affect external costs including congestion, roadway subsidies, accident risk and pollution emissions.

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32 Shared Mobility Principles ( 1. Plan our cities and their mobility together. 2. Prioritize people over vehicles. 3. Support shared and efficient use of vehicles, lanes, curbs, and land. 4. Engage with stakeholders. 5. Promote equity. 6. Lead the transition towards a zero-emission future and renewable energy. 7. Support fair user fees across all modes. 8. Aim for public benefits via open data. 9. Work towards integration and seamless connectivity. 10.In urban areas autonomous vehicles should only operate in shared fleets.

33 Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Benefits, costs and travel impacts are uncertain. Net benefits will probably be smaller than optimists predict Recent predictions that autonomous vehicles will soon be cheap and ubiquitous, and by 2030 will displace most private vehicle travel, are mostly made by people with financial interests in the industry. During the s they are likely to be expensive and limited in ability. It will probably be the 2040s before most middleincome families can purchase reliable and affordable autonomous vehicles, and longer for lower-income households. It is unlikely that most vehicles will be autonomous before 2050 unless many functional vehicles are scrapped.

34 New Traffic Safety Strategies Conventional Safety Strategies Anti-impaired and distracted driving campaigns Graduated driver s licenses Special senior driver testing Roadway improvements Vehicle improvements Vehicle occupant crash protection New Paradigm Strategies More multimodal planning (improved walking, cycling and public transit) More efficient transport pricing (distance-based insurance and registration fees, parking fees, road tolls and higher fuel taxes) Reduced parking supply and subsidies Smart Growth development policies Complete streets policies TDM programs (such as commute trip reduction)

35 Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance Pricing Motorists pay by the vehicle-kilometre, so a $600 annual premium becomes 3 /km and a $2,000 annual premium becomes 10 /km. This gives motorists a significant financial incentive to drive less, but is not a new fee at all, simply a different way to pay existing fees. Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance provides large safety benefits by giving motorists an incentive to reduce their vehicle mileage, reducing total traffic volumes. Higher-riskper-mile motorists have a greater incentive to reduce their mileage, which should lead to an extra increase in road safety.

36 Win-Win Transport Solutions Planning Objectives Expand Roadways Alt. Fuel Vehicles Targeted Safety Strategies New Safety Strategies Reduce traffic congestion Roadway cost savings Parking cost savings Consumer savings Improve mobility options Improve traffic safety Energy conservation Pollution reduction Land use objectives Public fitness & health

37 Dollars Per Vehicle Mile Comparing Costs $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00

38 New Safety Strategy Consideration Reports and Programs Countermeasures That Work, NHTSA Desktop Reference for Crash Reduction Factors, ITE Developing Safety Plans: Manual for Local Rural Road Owners, FHWA Getting to Zero Alcohol-impaired Driving Fatalities: A Comprehensive Approach to a Persistent Problem Global Status Report on Road Safety, World Health Organization Highway Safety Manual, AASHTO Highway Safety Program Guidelines, GHTSC Motor Vehicle PICCS, CDC Roadway Safety Guide, Road Safety Foundation Safe Ride Programs, Mothers Against Drunk Driving The Injury Research Foundation Toward Zero Deaths Traffic Safety Fundamentals Handbook, MDOT Transportation and Health Tool, USDOT and CDC Transportation Planner's Safety Desk Reference, US DOT World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention, GRSP Zero Road Deaths and Serious Injuries: Leading a Paradigm Shift to a Safe System Considers New Strategies? None None None Recommends improving public transportation and ridehailing services Recommends walking, cycling and transit improvements None None None None None None None None Recommends multimodal planning for safety and health Recommends some vehicle travel reduction strategies Recommends demand management strategies Recommends some vehicle travel reduction strategies

39 Example: Malahat Highway Several options are being considered to address congestion problems on the Malahat highway north of Victoria, BC. Current proposals have $500 million to $1.5 billion capital costs, or about $30 to $60 million in annualized costs. 39

40 Multi-Modal Malahat Solutions Bus frequency: minute headways (18-24 daily trips). Bus fares: $3-$6 per trip, $120 monthly passes. Commute trip reduction programs. Bus priority: saves 3-10 minutes per trip. Improve transit user information and marketing. Results: 10-20% shift Annualized Costs: $3-6 million 40

41 Motorists Benefit Too More balanced transport policy is no more anti-car than a healthy diet is anti-food. Motorists have every reason to support these reforms: Reduced traffic and parking congestion. Improved safety. Improved mobility options for nondrivers. Reduced chauffeuring burden. Often the quickest and most cost effective way to improve driving conditions.

42 Supported by Professional Organizations Canadian Institute of Transportation Engineers Transport Canada American Planning Association American Public Health Assoc. Center for Disease Control Federal, state, regional and local planning agencies World Health Organization National Governor s Association And much more...

43 Conclusions Traffic death rates are increasing. Additional safety strategies are needed to achieve ambitious safety goals such as Vision Zero. New research improves our understanding of traffic risks. Numerous studies indicate that exposure - the amount people travel is a critical risk factor: all else being equal, increased travel increases crashes. A new paradigm recognizes that all vehicle travel incurs risks, so policies that stimulate vehicle travel increase crashes and those that reduce travel provide safety. New safety strategies complement existing programs, which become more effective, equitable and acceptable if implemented with improved mobility options that help higher-risk travellers reduce driving and risk exposure. New safety strategies tend to provide co-benefits, and so are supported by comprehensive analysis.

44 Research on Pricing Effects Paul J. Burke and Shuhei Nishitateno (2015), "Gasoline Prices and Road Fatalities: International Evidence, Economic Inquiry (DOI: /ecin.12171); at G. Chi, et. al. (2010), Gasoline Prices and Traffic Safety in Mississippi, Journal of Safety Research, Vol. 41(6), pp ; at G. Chi, et al. (2011), A Time Geography Approach to Understanding the Impact of Gasoline Price Changes on Traffic Safety, TRB ( at G. Chi, et al. (2013), Gasoline Price Effects on Traffic Safety in Urban and Rural Areas: Evidence from Minnesota, , Safety Science, Vol. 59, pp ; at Joseph Ferreira Jr. and Eric Minike (2010), A Risk Assessment of Pay-As-You-Drive Auto Insurance, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( David C. Grabowski and Michael A. Morrisey (2006), Do Higher Gasoline Taxes Save Lives? Economics Letters, Vol. 90, pp ; abstract at Todd Litman (2012), Pricing for Traffic Safety: How Efficient Transport Pricing Can Reduce Roadway Crash Risks, Transportation Research Record 2318, pp ( at Michael A. Morrisey and David C. Grabowski (2011), Gas Prices, Beer Taxes and GDL Programmes: Effects on Auto Fatalities Among Young Adults in the US, Applied Economics, Vol. 43:25, pp , (DOI: / ).

45 Other Related Research Hamed Ahangari, Carol Atkinson-Palombo and Norman Garrick (2017), Automobile Dependency as a Barrier to Vision Zero: Evidence from the States in the USA, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 107, pp ( at Eric Dumbaugh and Robert Rae (2009), Safe Urban Form: Revisiting the Relationship Between Community Design and Traffic Safety, Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 75, No. 3, Summer (DOI: / ) Reid Ewing, Shima Hamidi and James Grace (2016), Urban Sprawl as a Risk Factor in Motor Vehicle Crashes, Urban Studies, Vol. 53/2, pp ( at Fyhri, et al. (2017), Safety in Numbers for Cyclists Conclusions from a Multidisciplinary Study of Seasonal Change in Interplay and Conflicts, Traffic Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 105, pp ( Norman W. Garrick and Wesley Marshall (2011), Does Street Network Design Affect Traffic Safety? Accident; Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp , DOI: /j.aap Brad N. Greenwood and Sunil Wattal (2015), Show Me the Way to Go Home: An Empirical Investigation of Ride Sharing and Alcohol Related Motor Vehicle Homicide, Fox School of Business Research Paper No ; at Wesley E. Marshall and Norman W. Garrick (2011), Evidence on Why Bike-Friendly Cities Are Safer for All Road Users, Environmental Practice, Vol 13/1, March; at Brendan Murphy, David M. Levinson, and Andrew Owen (2017), Evaluating the Safety in Numbers Effect for Pedestrians at Urban Intersections, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 106, pp ( Jim P. Stimpson, et al. (2014), Share of Mass Transit Miles Traveled and Reduced Motor Vehicle Fatalities in Major Cities of the United States, Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, (doi: /s ) Ben Welle, et al. (2018), Sustainable & Safe: A Vision and Guidance for Zero Road Deaths, World Resources Institute ( Jiho Yeo, Sungjin Park and Kitae Jang (2015), Effects of Urban Sprawl and Vehicle Miles Traveled on Traffic Fatalities, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp (

46 Transportation Talk Article A summary of this research is published in A New Traffic Safety Paradigm, Transportation Talk, The Journal of the Canadian Institute of Transportation Engineers, Winter ( winter201718)

47 If Health Matters: Integrating Public Health Objectives into Transportation Decision-Making Safe Travels: Evaluating Mobility Management Traffic Safety Benefits The Hidden Traffic Safety Solution: Public Transportation Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions Transportation Pricing for Traffic Safety A New Traffic Safety Paradigm Online TDM Encyclopedia Smart Growth Savings PAYDINBC.ca and more...