SURFACE TRANSPORTATION SAFETY & INVESTMENT UPDATE ON PROGRESS SINCE 2000

Transcription

1 SURFACE TRANSPORTATION SAFETY & INVESTMENT UPDATE ON PROGRESS SINCE 2000 Requested by: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Prepared by: Timothy Neuman, P.E. CH2M HILL Chicago, Illinois September, 2006 The information contained in this report was prepared as part of NCHRP Project 20-24(54)##, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Transportation Research Board.

2 Acknowledgements This study was requested by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), and conducted as part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project The NCHRP is supported by annual voluntary contributions from the state Departments of Transportation (DOTs). Project is intended to fund studies of interest to the leadership of AASHTO and its member DOTs. The report was prepared by Timothy Neuman, P.E., Stacey Black, Vanessa Bond, Will Stein and Trish McLaughlin of CH2M HILL and Ron Pfefer. The work was guided by a task group, chaired by Randy K. Halverson, Minnesota DOT, and included the following members: Carolyn Ismart, Florida DOT; Dennis Keck, New Jersey DOT; Calvin Leggett, North Carolina DOT; Susan Mortel, Michigan DOT; Gregory Oliver, Delaware DOT; Douglas R. Rose, Maryland State Highway Administration; Joan Sollenberger, California DOT; Jeanne Stevens, Tennessee DOT; Sandra Straehl, Montana DOT; and Thomas M. Welch, Iowa DOT. Agency liaison representatives were: Ross Crichton, FHWA; David H. Clawson, AASHTO; and Janet Oakley, AASHTO. The project was managed by Crawford F. Jencks, Manager, NCHRP. Disclaimer The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board or its sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This document is not a report of the Transportation Research Board or of the National Research Council.

3 2006 Bottom Line Report on Highway Safety Table of Contents NCHRP Project (Task 54) Scope and Project Approach... 4 AASHTO Highway Safety Strategic Plan at a Glance... 6 Area 1 Instituting Graduated Driver Licensing Area 2 Ensuring Drivers are Fully Licensed and Competent Area 3 Sustaining Proficiency in Older Drivers Area 4 Curbing Aggressive Driving Area 5 Reducing Impaired Driving Area 6 Keeping Drivers Alert Area 7 Increasing Driver Safety Awareness Area 8 Increasing Safety Belt Usage and Improving Air Bag Effectiveness Area 9 Making Walking and Street Crossing Safer Area 10 Ensuring Safer Bicycle Travel Area 11 Motorcycle Safety Awareness Area 12 Making Truck Traffic Safer Area 13 Increasing Safety Enhancements in Vehicles Area 14 Reducing Vehicle-Train Collisions Area 15 Keeping Vehicles on the Road Area 16 Minimize the Consequences of Leaving the Roadway Area 17 Improving the Design and Operation of Intersections Area 18 Reducing Head-on and Cross Median Crashes Area 19 Design Safer Work Zones Area 20 Enhancing Medical Capabilities to Increase Survivability Areas 21 and 22 Improving Information and Decision Support Systems and Creating More Effective Processes and Safety Management Systems Evaluation of Trends Summary Discussion A View to the Future Postscript References... 81

4 NCHRP Project (Task 54) Scope and Project Approach SAFETEA-LU legislation established programs and funding to address recognized safety problems. Since the mid 1990s federal, state and local agencies have worked to define problems and attack them with a combination of education, enforcement, and engineering approaches. AASHTO s responsibilities include the assessment of all surface transportation needs, and the recommendation to legislators on approaches to meeting those needs at the federal and state levels. It is therefore important to AASHTO to define the highway safety problem in meaningful terms for AASHTO s deliberations. AASHTO identified a need to understand what costs would be required to meet the vision of the SHSP, and what tangible benefits should the public expect to receive should such investment be made. To support AASHTO in the previous program cycle, NCHRP Project 8-36, Task 26 was undertaken. That study, completed in early 2002 provided input to AASHTO on the potential benefits and costs associated with investments targeted to a national effort to reduce highway fatalities and injuries. It was instrumental in shaping thoughts and deliberations that led to passage of SAFETEA-LU. Timothy R. Neuman of CH2M HILL was the Principal Investigator for NCHRP Project 8-36 Task 26 and primary author of the document. He was assisted by Ron Pfefer of Maron Engineering. Project Work Approach This initial study was based on data reflecting the conditions and performance of the highway system in time frame. With the passage of a number of years, AASHTO required updating of the knowledge and an assessment of where we currently stand in the U.S. in accomplishing the goals of reducing highway fatalities and injuries. NCHRP Project 20-24(54) was commissioned to provide this update. The same study team led by Tim Neuman and supported by Ron Pfefer conducted the study. Work efforts focused on updating highway safety performance, with reliance on published statistical data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, NHTSA, FHWA and other sources. Current data bases provide information on highway safety through Other data from Highway Statistics were used to refine understanding of mileage and travel on the system as of This study took advantage of much work at the state level to develop statewide comprehensive plans, including four states which CH2M HILL has helped directly through separate contracts. In addition, we obtained and reviewed the published plans from 11 states as a basis for understanding approaches to safety, emphases, investment levels, and in some cases assumptions about program effectiveness. Some limited literature review was undertaken, primarily focused on those areas where much work had occurred in the past few years, but also where the previous study was lacking in quantitative definition. For the most part, reliance was placed on referencing the AASHTO and FHWA-sponsored efforts being published as NCHRP Report 500 series (multiple volumes). CH2M HILL is prime contractor for this effort, and was able to reference not only the published information but also materials currently in draft and draft final status.

5 We also reviewed methodologies for development of costs and benefits in the earlier study, and refined these as appropriate. In some cases this entailed updating for inflation; in other cases we substituted better estimates based on newly available information. Reliance was placed on published state strategic plans, supplemented with and phone conversations with peers in state DOTs. Study Framework The original study used the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan (SHSP) as the organizational framework around which costs and benefits were discussed. The SHSP outlines 22 basic Goal Areas encompassing the full range of legislation and policy, human behavioral initiatives, law enforcement, training and infrastructure programs (both roadway and in-vehicle). Within each goal area are a range of individual strategies suggested for agencies wishing to address the particular problem. The strategies within a goal area also typically run the range of initiatives outlined above. For reference, an outline of the SHSP is included as Exhibit 1. Thus, while the SHSP is stewarded by AASHTO, it clearly involves much more than the highway infrastructure in terms of its depth and breadth. The SHSP is considered the basis upon which all substantive safety-related initiatives are evaluated, funded and developed at the national level. Efforts by the various agencies within the U.S. DOT, including the FHWA, NHTSA and BMCSA are structured to respond to one or more key areas.

6 Exhibit 1 AASHTO Highway Safety Strategic Plan at a Glance Area Topic Strategies DRIVER 1 - Instituting Graduated Licensing for Young Drivers 2 - Ensuring Drivers are Fully Licensed and Competent 3 - Sustaining Proficiency in Older Drivers 4 - Curbing Aggressive Driving 5 - Reducing Impaired Driving 6 - Keeping Drivers Alert A - Implement graduated licensing systems. B - Develop and implement an improved competency based training and assessment procedures for entry-level drivers. C - Develop and implement an evaluation system for drivers moving from the provisional to the regular license stage. A - Increase the effectiveness of license suspension/revocation. B - Define and implement the strategies that most effectively keep suspended/revoked drivers off of the road. C - Develop and deploy an informal assessment system that various parties can use to assess an individual s capability to drive safely. D - Develop and provide technical aids such as simulators and electronic media for private self assessment and improvement of driver skills. E - Enhance the competency of drivers through an improved renewal system. A - Implement processes to improve the highway infrastructure to safely accommodate older drivers. B - Implement a comprehensive approach to assist older driver safety. C - Assess the feasibility of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) and Advanced Vehicle Control Systems (AVCS) for sustaining mobility and enhancing proficiency. A - Develop and implement comprehensive programs to combat aggressive driving. B - Promote the use of advanced technologies to support enforcement efforts. A - Advance stronger legislation in the States to reduce drinking and driving. B - Develop and implement comprehensive sobriety checkpoints and saturation blitzes. C - Reduce the incidence of drinking and driving in the age group. D - Create more effective ways to deal with repeat DUI offenders. E - Build State programs that target drug impaired driving. F - Develop and implement a comprehensive public awareness campaign. A - Implement a targeted program to reduce the likelihood of fatigue. B - Retrofit the rural interstate and other fatigue-prone facilities with shoulder rumble strips. C - Reduce the number of commercial vehicle crashes resulting from loss of alertness and driver fatigue.

7 Area Topic Strategies SPECIAL USERS VEHICLES 7 - Increasing Driver Safety Awareness 8 - Increasing Safety Belt Usage & Improving Airbag Effectiveness 9 - Making Walking & Street Crossing Safer 10 - Ensuring Safer Bicycle Travel 11 - Improving Motorcycle Safety and Increasing Motorcycle Awareness A - Develop and market a coordinated national campaign that targets at least the following areas: drinking & driving; occupant protection; aggressive driving (including speeding); fatigue; inattention; roadside hazards; unsafe driving; understanding traffic control devices; work zones; tailgating; and rear end collisions. B - Create awareness efforts to deal with less well understood and emerging safety concerns. A - Increase adoption of standard seat belt laws and eliminate gaps in child seat laws. B - Implement periodic, intensive, coordinated enforcement initiatives. C - Improve the effectiveness of air bags. D - Create improved awareness of air bag safety effectiveness. A - Update existing and develop new warrants, guides, and standards for the safe accommodation of pedestrians. B - Implement comprehensive programs (engineering, enforcement, education) to impact impaired (alcohol, drug, general) pedestrians. C - Encourage States to become active in public outreach and training on pedestrian safety. D - Develop programs to improve pedestrian and bicycle safety accommodations for intersections and interchanges. E - Encourage States to enact new or modified legislation and adopt policies to provide safer accommodation of pedestrians on public roads. F - Implement comprehensive integrated pedestrian safety programs targeting major pedestrian crash concerns in major urbanized areas and select rural areas. A - Seek adoption by more States of policies to better accommodate bicyclists on all public roads, and encourage State legislatures to fund bicycle facilities. B - Develop and implement a public education/information program on bicycle safety targeting all age groups of bicyclists and drivers. C - Provide educational material to police officers and judicial officials that emphasizes how bicycle laws are important to bicycle safety and provide guidance on how to effectively enforce them. D - Increase bicycle helmet usage. A - Reduce the number of alcohol-related motorcycle fatalities. B - Reduce motorcycle fatalities resulting from errors by other drivers. C - Increase the application of comprehensive motorcycles rider education programs for novice and experienced riders. D - Increase highway design, operations, and maintenance practices that consider the special needs of motorcycle operating requirements and dynamics. E - Increase helmet usage through the enactment of helmet laws.

8 Area Topic Strategies HIGHWAYS 12 - Making Truck Travel Safer 13 - Increasing Safety Enhancements in Vehicles 14 - Reducing Vehicle-Train Crashes 15 - Keeping Vehicles on the Roadway 16 -Minimizing the Consequences of leaving the Roadway 17 - Improving the Design & Operation of Intersections A - Refocus commercial vehicle programs and regulations to achieve crash reductions rather than on the number of enforcement actions. B - Reduce the number of commercial vehicle crashes resulting from loss of alertness and driver fatigue. C - Reduce the number of commercial vehicle crashes resulting from driver errors. D - Implement traffic controls and address highway design problems to reduce the most prevalent truck crashes on Interstate and major highways. E - Enhance the safe operating condition of trucks and buses. A - Reduce the number of crashes and injuries resulting from misunderstanding and misuse of anti-lock brake systems (ABS). B - Reduce carbon monoxide poisoning through education and technology. C - Include motorcycle needs in ITS crash avoidance and collision warning research and implementation. D - Improve the compatibility between roadside and vehicle designs. A - Finalize development of and deploy improved passive warning devices. B - Establish national guidelines for highway-rail grade crossings. C - Improve driver training and licensing relative to safe practices for approaching and traversing highway-rail crossings. D - Adopt advanced technology for enforcement and crash prevention at RR crossings to minimize motorist violation of RR warning devices. E - Implement the findings and recommendations of the USDOT Grade Crossing Safety Report. A - Implement a comprehensive program to improve driver guidance through better pavement markings and delineation. B - Implement a targeted shoulder rumble strip program. C - Improve the design process to explicitly incorporate safety considerations and to facilitate better design decisions. D - Develop better guidance to control variance in speed through combinations of geometric, traffic control, and enforcement techniques. E - Establish programs to improve the maintenance of the roadway to enhance highway safety. A - Provide improved practices for the selection, installation, and maintenance of upgraded roadside safety hardware. B - Implement in an environmentally acceptable manner a national effort to address hazardous trees. C - Implement a national policy to reduce the hazard from roadside utility poles, particularly on two-lane rural roads. D - Develop and implement guidance to improve ditches and backslopes to minimize rollover potential. E - Develop and implement guidelines for safe urban streetscape design. A - Improve the safety of intersections using automated methods to monitor and enforce intersection traffic control. B - Improve intersection safety through upgrading of signalized intersection controls that smooth traffic flow. C - Utilize new technologies to improve intersection safety. D - Include more effective access management policies with a safety perspective.

9 Area Topic Strategies EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES MANAGEMENT 18 - Reducing Head-on & Across-median Crashes 19 - Design Safer Work Zones 20 - Enhancing Emergency Medical Capabilities to Increase Survivability 21 - Improving Information & Decision Support Systems 22 - Creating More Effective Processes & Safety Management Systems A - Develop and test innovative centerline treatments to reduce head-on crashes on two-lane highways. B - Reduce across-median crashes on freeways and arteries that have narrow medians. A - Implement improved methods to reduce the number and duration of work activities. B - Adopt improved procedures to ensure more effective practices, including traffic control devices for managing work zone operations. C - Enhance and extend training for the planning, implementation, and maintenance of work zones to maximize safety. D - Enhance safe work zone driving through education and enforcement actions. A - Develop and implement a model comprehensive approach that will ensure appropriate and timely response to the emergency needs of crash victims. B - Develop and implement a plan to increase education and involvement of EMS personnel in the principles of traffic safety. C - Develop and implement an emergency preparedness model in three high-incident interstate highway settings (urban, rural, and wilderness). D - Implement and/or enhance trauma systems. E - Develop and support integrated EMS/public health/public safety information and program activities. A - Improve the quality of safety data by establishing programs for quality assurance, incentives, and accountability within agencies responsible for collecting and managing safety data. B - Provide managers, and users of highway safety information with the resources needed to make the most effective use of the data. C - Establish a means for coordinated collection, management, and use of safety information among organizations at all jurisdictional levels. D - Establish a group of highway safety professionals trained in the analytic methods appropriate for evaluating highway safety information. E - Establish and promote technical standards for highway safety information systems characteristics that are critical to operating effective Safety Management Systems (SMS) programs. A - Communicate the benefits of existing successful Safety Management Systems (SMS). B - Implement pilot safety audit processes. C - Promote strong coordination, cooperation, and communication of safety initiatives within each State. D - Integrate the planning of highway safety programs and highway safety information systems. E - Establish an ongoing performance measurement system to evaluate the cost effectiveness of safety investments at both project and program levels. F - Develop and ratify a national safety agenda. G - Implement safety community-based programs to engage local partners in areas of traffic safety that most affect their daily lives.

10 This framework has been maintained. The technical contents of this report are organized as follows, with complete discussion for each of the 22 emphasis areas: Overview of the Emphasis Area Summary of Progress Since 2000 Assessment of the Status of Full Implementation Updated and Refined Estimates of Safety Effectiveness of the Area Updated and Refined Estimates of the Costs to Implement Strategies in the Area

11 The following is a summary of updates to data, assumptions and analyses for each of the 22 emphasis areas in the AASHTO SHSP. Area 1 Instituting Graduated Driver Licensing The fatality rate for young drivers (20 years and under) is four times that of the age group. Area 1 strategies focus on passing and implementing at the state level graduated licensing and specialized training for younger drivers. Progress Since 2000 Measurable progress has been made in this area since the original study. As shown in Figure 1.1, the number of younger drivers involved in fatal crashes has been reduced from 8155 to This represents a reduction of 3.1% of this demographic (not accounting for any changes in the driving population). Young Driver Involvement (Ages 15-20) in Fatal Crashes, By Year 8, % 8, % Number of Young Drivers Involved 8,200 8,100 8,000 7,900 7,800 7, % 14.0% 13.8% 13.6% 13.4% 13.2% Percentage of All Fatal Crashes Involving Young Drivers Number of Young Drivers Involved Percentage of Young Driver Involvement 7, Year 13.0% Figure 1.1 Recent Trends in Younger Driver Fatal Crash Involvement (Source: FARS) Status of Full Implementation Progress is in large part due to more states passing and implementing GDL legislation. There are four types of GDL restrictions according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. These are learner stage with mandatory holding period of at least six months, learner stage with a minimum time for supervised driving, night driving restrictions, and in-vehicle passenger restrictions.

12 As of of the 50 states (Hawaii, Montana and Wyoming the exceptions) had passed some form of GDL legislation. Five of the eleven state strategic plans reviewed for this study highlighted Area 1 as a critical emphasis area for further investments. Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates In the original study research was referenced that suggested a 7.6% reduction in young driver fatalities. Additional strategies in Area 1 related to competency based training and evaluation systems were acknowledged and some nominal effectiveness assigned to them. Refined estimates of future savings in this area focused primarily on further strengthening of GDL laws in all 50 states. FARS data for year old fatalities by state were obtained from FARS data. Based on literature summarized in the draft NCHRP Report 500 report on younger drivers, the status of each state s GDL laws was assessed in each state and a potential future effectiveness assigned. In addition, the number of potential fatalities was calculated assuming that the effectiveness of GDL applies only to year olds. According to FARS, in of the 7898 (32%) of younger drivers involved in fatal crashes were years old. For states with no GDL, it is assumed that a 30% reduction in fatalities involving 16- and 17- year old drivers would be possible with full GDL legislation. For states with full or almost full legislation (three of the 4 attributes of a complete GDL program) a nominal 5% further reduction in fatalities is possible; for states with partial GDL (one or two of the four areas) a reduction of 15% was considered possible. The above analysis indicates a potential future savings based on 2004 statistics of 140 lives based on full implementation of GDL. Other Related Strategies The NCHRP Report 500 volume on younger drivers, in final publication, discusses other strategies to address younger driver safety. These include enhanced training, adjusted school hours to increase sleep, parental supervision, and others. While none of these has been proven as effective as GDL, they are viewed as sufficiently promising. A nominal effectiveness of 1% reduction in younger driver fatalities for the year old age group is considered a reasonable basis for estimating benefits associated with implementation of any of these strategies. Strategies to improve the training and driving skills of younger drivers, or further reduce their exposure to risk may be estimated to save an additional 80 lives. There is potential to save a total of 220 lives annually from fully implementing all strategies in this emphasis area. Costs Information on costs is limited. The Minnesota State Strategic Plan assigns a cost of $50,000 associated with meeting with state legislators and providing advice and assistance. With respect to training, Minnesota has budgeted $1.5 million for an enhanced driver training program. Adjusted for inflation, this compares with the cost of Pennsylvania s program that

13 included training, driver skills website development, and a public information campaign associated with promotion of GDL. A nominal annual cost of $2 million per state, or $100 million is considered a reasonable estimate of full implementation of both GDL and associated strategies.

14 Area 2 Ensuring Drivers are Fully Licensed and Competent Drivers with suspended or revoked licenses are significantly overrepresented in traffic crashes resulting in fatalities and serious injuries. Area 2 focuses on measures to assure that unlicensed drivers do not drive and place themselves and others at risk. Based on year 2004 data from FARS, 3369 drivers, or 5.8% of the total involved in fatal crashes, were driving with suspended or revoked licenses. Another 2390 (4.1%) were not licensed at the time of their fatal crash. The AASHTO SHSP describes five overall strategies, including administrative and enforcement actions to keep these drivers off the road, as well as development of assessment systems, technical aids, and improved license renewal systems. Progress Since 2000 There appears to be little or no progress made since year The number of drivers with S/R licenses is little changed (from 3400 to 3369). Indeed, as shown in Figure 2.1, the percentage of crashes associated with these drivers has increased from just under 11% to 12%. Involvement of Drivers with Invalid Licences in Fatal Crashes, By Year 7, % Number of Drivers with Invalid Licenses Involved 7,200 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5, % 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% Percentage of all Fatal Crashes Involving Drivers with Invalid Licenses Drivers with Invalid License Involved in Fatal Crashes % of Drivers Involved in Fatal Crashes 5, Year 9.5% Figure 2.1 Recent Trends in Fatal Crash Involvement of Drivers without Valid Licenses (Source: FARS) Status of Full Implementation While only one state highlighted this as an emphasis area in their State strategic plan, a number of states did promote individual strategies dealing with the issue. For example, Illinois and Missouri are developing distribution lists for law enforcement. Maryland is

15 working on improving driver licensing testing and processes for identifying repeat offenders. Tennessee is highlighting identification and monitoring of high-risk drivers, including specifically school bus operators. None of the state plans provides much specificity regarding program details such as cost and expected effectiveness. In summary it can be reasonably concluded that essentially no progress as measured by reduction in targeted fatalities in this area has been made since 2000 on the national level. Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates Potential effectiveness of full implementation of this emphasis area was based in the original study on research reported in NCHRP Report 500 Volume 2. Those strategies deemed most effective involved keeping unlicensed drivers off the road. It was assumed that effective application of these strategies would reduce relevant fatal crashes by 10%. Less well understood are the aggregate effects of administrative, renewal and other strategies. These were previously assigned a nominal effectiveness in the original study of 3 to 5%. Finally, a recent study by the University of Michigan found relatively high effectiveness of certain strategies, but only when measured against the relatively small population of repeat (two or more convictions) offenders. A recently published meta analysis by Elvik of the effectiveness of the range of administrative actions for S/R licenses suggested a 2 to 8% effectiveness. Based on the above the effectiveness estimates for Emphasis Area 2 are revised as follows: Effectiveness of measures to increase effectiveness of license revocation and keep S/R drivers off the road 8% (applied to fatal crashes involving drivers with S/R licenses) Effectiveness of programs to increase driver skills and support license renewal 1% (applied to fatal crashes involving unlicensed drivers) Applying the above estimates to the appropriate crash base results in an estimate of 8% x 3369 or 270; and 2% x 2341 or 23; a total of 293 fatal crashes, which translates to 326 fatalities annually (say, 325). Costs A 2002 study for NHTSA estimated the costs per person or vehicle for implementing strategies in this area. These costs are as follows: Impoundment of repeat offender s vehicle -- $700 Installation of alcohol interlock system in repeat offender s vehicle -- $870 House arrest -- $1300 Intensive probation supervision and treatment -- $1100. Establishing national costs requires an estimate of the population of drivers potentially treatable. A study completed in 2002 by the University of Michigan for the Michigan legislature reported the following statistics: 439,000 drivers had their licenses suspended or revoked in 2001

16 51,500 drivers involved in crashes had at least one previous alcohol-related offense in ,905 repeat offenders (two or more convictions) in 2001 The study attributed the greatest influence in crash savings associated with repeat offenders. Using vehicle registrations as a surrogate for driver population, and extrapolating Michigan s registrations nationally it can be estimated that there are potentially 477,400 drivers nationally considered potentially treatable as high risk or repeat offenders. Assigning a nominal $900 cost per offender per the above results in an annual cost of $430 million. Note that some of the proven strategies such as impoundment and sale of vehicles owned by S/R license holders would generate revenue which presumably could offset or help fund programs. No estimate of these defrayed costs is made. No costs are provided in any of the referenced state strategic plans. Most highlighted strategies focus on additional administrative efforts, including maintenance of data bases, coordination with law enforcement and addition adjudication efforts. Assuming full implementation of a statewide program it is reasonable to estimate that additional staff time and cost for such a program would be needed. An estimate of $500,000 per state, covering the costs of two or three additional staff as well as incremental costs for law enforcement and the judiciary is considered reasonable. Combining these costs with the above estimates produces a total estimated cost of $455 million for this strategy. Assuming all 50 states fully addressed this emphasis area this would translate to an annual cost of $455 million.

17 Area 3 Sustaining Proficiency in Older Drivers Older drivers have been documented as having a significantly greater risk of involvement in fatal and serious injury crashes. As the U.S. population ages, the percentage of drivers in this high risk demographic will continue to increase. This area of the SHSP focuses on strategies to address the safety problems unique to older drivers. Progress Since 2000 Some progress has been made at addressing older driver fatalities. In 2000 FARS reported a total of 4691 drivers over 70 involved with fatal crashes, with 3136 driver fatalities. Year 2004 statistics show reductions in these numbers to 4528 and 2989 respectively, a roughly 3.5% decline in four years. Figure 3.1 shows that the percentage of older drivers involved in fatal crashes has declined to less than 7.8% from about 8.3% % 8.40% 8.30% 8.20% 8.10% 8.00% 7.90% 7.80% 7.70% 7.60% 7.50% Drivers 70+ Involved in Fatal Crashes % of Drivers Involved in Fatal Crashes Figure 3.1 Recent Trends in Older Driver Fatalities (Source: FARS) Status of Full Implementation A number of states have highlighted older drivers as an emphasis area. Maryland appears to be among the more advanced states in this area. Comprehensive programs being developed in Alabama include driver screening and intervention, legislation, roadway countermeasures, and public information. Legislation has been proposed and enacted in several states. Such legislation involves screening and licensing, incentives or requirements for special driver training, and in one case establishment of a special older driver center. Note that the strategies outlined in the AASHTO SHSP address both infrastructure needs and comprehensive approaches. Although some states have begun addressing infrastructure needs related to older drivers, there is little actual implementation. It is expected that AASHTO and states will upgrade

18 signs, revise procedures and standards for markings and signing, and perhaps revise design policies to address older driver issues known to affect operations. Georgia, for example, includes an annual budget in their safety program for upgrading signing, signal head replacement and advance warning all recommendations relating to older driver issues. In the original study a comprehensive estimate of potential infrastructure upgrades was identified reflective of the technical literature on older driver safety. Intersection design and operations, signing and marking, and horizontal curve design and treatments, were all estimated on a national basis. Costs associated with infrastructure upgrades were estimated to be about $4.6 billion in year 2000 dollars. Note that it is expected that this process will occur over time and its effects on infrastructure will reflect phasing in and programmed, regular replacement of infrastructure. It has not been envisioned that states would proactively replace or upgrade infrastructure out of cycle absent a known, site-specific safety problem. So, clearly there is little or no progress with respect to such infrastructure effects. In summary, it is difficult to explain the basis for apparent progress in this area (other than perhaps increased awareness), but assuming the five year trend is real, it is encouraging. Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates The original study assigned a nominal 3% effectiveness to implementation of a comprehensive approach to older driver fatalities. A 5% estimate of effectiveness was conservatively assumed as a result of the range of identified infrastructure upgrades (signing, intersection design, markings, alignment). The net reduction published in the original study was 510 fatalities per year. Note also that the original study suggested future savings or benefits could increase as the population of older drivers increases. Given that these are modest estimates and little actual implementation has yet occurred on a national basis, but trends appear promising, the current status (year 2004) of elderly driver fatalities is used as the basis for computing potential safety benefits going forward, and the general approach applied in the original study is adopted here. This translates to a total of 240 fatalities per year. A reduction in older driver fatalities on the order of 240 annually is achievable from current levels. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost In the original study costs were estimated for the range of infrastructure improvements. These include upgrading intersection geometry and traffic control, addressing highway alignment, and generally upgrading marking and signing. These costs require updating. First the current estimate of the number of signalized intersections in the U.S. is about double the original estimate. Second, since 2000 there has been an increase generally in cost of highway infrastructure improvements. Data from state comprehensive plans were used to validate and refine the infrastructure investments noted in the original study. The following are updated capital cost estimates:

19 Improvements to signalized intersections (signing, signal head, timing, minor channelization); assume $10,000 per all 540,000 estimated signalized intersections total of $5.4 billion Improvements to highway curves; apply 30 percent inflation to previous estimate of $1.09 billion total of $1.4 billion Improvements to interchanges; apply 30 percent inflation to previous estimate total of $0.62 billion Improvements to railroad grade crossings apply 30 percent inflation to previous estimate of $77 million total of $ 0.1 billion A total capital investment over time to upgrade the highway system to address special needs of the older driver population is now estimated to cost $7.54 billion Costs of conducting comprehensive programs were more difficult to estimate. The original study assigned a cost of $11.2 million annually based on one state s program. No additional information was found to enable refining of that estimate. To reflect inflation this cost is adjusted slightly upward to $15 million per year. Costs to address older driver needs and concerns include $7.54 billion in capital costs, assumed implemented mostly over time within the project development cycle, and $15 million annually for conducting comprehensive education and training programs at the state level.

20 Area 4 Curbing Aggressive Driving Aggressive driving behavior is believed to contribute substantially to the nation s safety problems. Area 4 deals with strategies to identify, isolate and prevent or minimize risk associated with aggressive driving. The term aggressive driving means different things to different individuals. For highway safety professionals a common understanding is that excessive speeding in part defines aggressive driving behavior. The NCHRP Report 500 series Volume 1 covered this emphasis area and noted the need for safety stakeholders to adopt a common definition of aggressive driving. Progress Since 2000 Aggressive driving is difficult to define and hence difficult to measure. The most usable and appropriate measure of the potential for or presence of aggressive driving is the number of fatalities associated with speeding. (This is not to say that all speeding-related crashes by definition are aggressive driving crashes.) As shown below in Figure 4.1, the percentage of crash fatalities that are speeding related has increased, according to NHTSA, from under 30 percent to 31 percent. The number of speeding-related fatalities in 2004 was 13,192. Speeding-Related Fatal Crashes, By Year % 32.00% Number of Speeding-Related Fatal Crashes % 31.00% 30.50% 30.00% 29.50% 29.00% 28.50% Percentage of all Fatal Crashes Involving Speeding Number of Speeding- Related Fatal Crashes % of Fatal Crashes Involving Speeding Year 28.00% Figure 4.1 Percentage of Speeding-related Crash Fatalities of Total Crash Fatalities in the U.S through 2004 (Source: NHTSA)

21 Status of Full Implementation Five of the eleven state plans reviewed for this study mentioned aggressive driving as an emphasis area. NCHRP Report 500 Volume 1 notes that effective strategies involve identifying specific corridors or locations where such behavior appears prevalent, conducting targeted enforcement campaigns to address such behavior, and as needed combining these efforts with public information campaigns. There have been a number of pilot and experimental programs associated with aggressive driving, but as of the date of this report no state has yet implemented a specific statewide program for this emphasis area. Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates The original study based aggregate effectiveness estimates on one state s study of the issue. It is believed that original study was overly optimistic regarding both the scope and effectiveness of an aggressive driving program. The effectiveness of public information campaigns is generally held to be effective only accompanied by enforcement. The best estimate of aggressive driving program effectiveness can be derived from a program in Milwaukee (Aggressive Suppression Program) of enforcement and media campaign in The percent change in personal injury or fatality crashes for target corridors was 11.3% (reduction in total crashes of 12.3%) compared with a reduction of 1.2% of personal injury and fatality crashes for comparison corridors. Thus a figure of 10.1 (say, 10%) effectiveness of targeted enforcement accompanied by media is appropriate. Deriving an overall effectiveness associated with aggressive driving focus should reflect the practical nature of targeting corridors versus overall coverage. The following are reasonable assumptions, consistent with pilot efforts in this area: Assume each state will identify the top five corridors for which aggressive driving is or appears to be a documented safety problem. Assume these top five corridors represent a total of 5% of speeding-related fatalities in the state subject to potential reduction. Based on the total 2004 NHTSA figures of 13,192 speeding-related fatalities, 13,192 fatalities x 0.05 target x 0.10 reduction results in the potential for 66 fatalities saved. This estimate compares with the original study estimate of 250 fatalities potentially saved. Targeted programs aimed at identified locations where aggressive driving behaviors may contribute to fatalities may save up to 66 fatalities per year (say, 65). Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study suggested annual enforcement costs of $120 million for a representative statewide program. The approach suggested above represents a much lower cost given the assumption that individual corridors or locations would be targeted. Minnesota s state plan mentions a $750,000 statewide speeding enforcement campaign. This cost is comparable to that documented from an enforcement demonstration effort in

22 Tennessee in the mid-1990s covering targeted saturation patrols. Following that plan a more extensive $3 million speed management project was undertaken by the state. Minnesota s mileage is about 3.3% of total national mileage. Some effort is required to identify the locations of interest, coordinate and plan the enforcement effort and document effectiveness. An assumed annual cost of $2 million per state, or $100 million is considered reasonable. Programs to identify high risk corridors and conduct ongoing targeted corridor enforcement actions to reduce aggressive driving may cost $100 million if applied on a national basis.

23 Area 5 Reducing Impaired Driving Arguably the single greatest contributor to highway deaths and injuries is the presence of drivers and pedestrians impaired by alcohol and drugs. Area 5 focuses on reducing fatalities due to impaired driving. Progress Since 2000 There has been little progress made in this important area since the year As shown below in Figure 5.1, the number of alcohol-involved fatalities dropped considerably from the mid-1980s to 1992, but in the past 13 years has been essentially flat. The most recent figures from NHTSA for 2004 show a promising 2.4 percent decline from 2003, but the 16,694 alcohol involved fatalities in 2004 is essentially the same as those reported in the year (Note that figures released in August 2006 for the year 2005 indicate essentially no progress in the area of impaired driving fatalities (from 16,694 to 16,685), with the underlying trend of the past decade remaining flat.) 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2, Figure Number of Alcohol-related Fatalities in the U.S., (Source: NHTSA) NHTSA had established a goal of 11,000 fatalities in year 2000; we have fallen well short of achieving that goal. As of 2004, NHTSA reports that 43% of all highway fatalities involved alcohol. In five states the alcohol-involvement rate is 50% or higher. In only three states is the reported alcohol involvement 30% or less.

24 To assess how far we have to come in meeting the stated goal, consider that were all states to have their involvement rate reduced to 30%, the result would be just over 13,000 fatalities still short of the 11,000 goal. Status of Full Implementation All state SHSP documents reviewed for this study show that impaired driving is a focus area of emphasis. States are undertaking a range of activities, including public information campaigns (with focus on special target groups such as younger drivers), enforcement campaigns (often targeted at specific locations or corridors) and legislation. Legislative implementation has been significant. As of 2004, 45 states and the District of Columbia had laws making driving with a BAC of 0.08 or higher illegal. (We note that as of 2006 all states and the District of Columbia have enacted this legislation.) The NCHRP Report 500 Volume on Impaired Driving outlines strategies highlighted by experts. The most effective proven strategy is enforcement checkpoints. Studies show that on a location by location basis saturation checkpoints can reduce impaired driving fatalities by as much as 20%. For this effectiveness to be reached, however, repeated use of checkpoints is required. And, greatest effectiveness is reached when this enforcement activity is combined with targeted public information. Numerous pilot or demonstration efforts have been tried in the past to enforce DUI laws and remove high-risk drivers from the roads. To our knowledge, though, no state has undertaken an aggressive, ongoing statewide enforcement campaign. Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates The previous study estimated a total potential saving of 3250 lives annually from all efforts. This was noted as being short of NHTSA s stated goal. As a basis for refining this estimate, focus was placed on the single proven effective strategy of sobriety checkpoints and saturation blitzes. Research in Europe on the relationship of intensity of law enforcement activity and its effectiveness was used to model the number of checkpoints to achieve maximum effectiveness. Our study estimates that 60,000 checkpoints nationally (an additional 30,000 over current estimated efforts nationally) would be needed for a 3.4% to 6.8% reduction in alcohol-related fatalities. Using the higher estimate yields a reduction of 1135 fatalities Additional marginal reductions associated with other coordinated efforts (public information, stricter DUI enforcement) should also be expected. A nominal value of 2% of alcohol-related fatalities is assumed. This results in an estimated reduction of 335 fatalities Implementation of proven strategies to a sustained level for which effectiveness will be maintained suggests a reduction of 1470 alcohol related fatalities is possible. Costs of Full Implementation There is limited quantitative information in the State plans reviewed. Minnesota s plan suggests the following framework for planning and executing public information campaigns and coordination with appropriate stakeholders (law enforcement, judiciary, local agencies) on an annual basis:

25 Planning, preparation for, and meeting on impaired driving -- $100,000 Targeted impaired driving campaign -- $200,000 per campaign Broad-based public information campaign -- $500,000 per campaign Assuming an average state would conduct at least 5 targeted campaigns annually, an estimated annual cost of $1.6 million per state, or $19.2 million for all states, for planning, public and targeted campaigns is considered reasonable. For the strategy of sobriety checkpoints and saturation blitzes, estimates were made for the cost per checkpoint and number of checkpoints necessary to be confident of overall, long range effectiveness. For the former, a review of literature and discussions/ surveys of law enforcement experts suggests a range of $1500 to $4800 per checkpoint (low number represents low staff and non-sworn officer use; high end represents traditional approach). A mid-range value of $3000 per checkpoint results in an estimate of $90 million annually over current DUI enforcement activities. Other costs associated with repeat offenders, license suspension and revocation, etc. which are primarily directed at alcohol impairment were estimated to be $430 million annually. These are recorded in area 2 and hence excluded in the summary of costs for this area. Annual costs to achieve meaningful reductions in alcohol-related fatalities and injuries are on the order of $100 million over current expenditures.

26 Area 6 Keeping Drivers Alert Fatigue and inattentiveness are a factor in as many as one quarter of highway crashes. Keeping drivers alert is the focus of emphasis area 6 in the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan. Progress Since 2000 It is difficult to track crash trends associated with drowsy or inattentive driving. A total of 11,911 fatal single vehicle, off-roadway crashes occurred in 2004, comprising 31% of the 38,253 total fatal motor vehicle traffic crashes that occurred that year. Some portion of these crashes would be attributable to drowsiness or inattention. FARS data report that 250 fatal crashes of large trucks (over 10,000 lb GVW) involved inattention, sleepiness or drowsiness, with the majority (196) cited as inattention. These numbers are much lower than was reported in the original study from both FARS and FMCSA studies in the late 1990s a range of 800 to 1230 fatal crashes. Previous research (see NCHRP Report 500 series, Volume 14) notes that drowsiness, distractions from within the vehicle, and a phenomenon of looked but did not see were substantial causal factors in crashes. Both older drivers and younger drivers appear overrepresented in such crashes, with younger drivers susceptible to distractions from other passengers, CD players and cell phones. NHTSA research notes that cell phone usage by drivers increased from 5 to 6 percent of drivers from 2004 to There is no apparent trend in crash types that suggest this problem is increasing. Status of Full Implementation The AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan calls refers to programs to combat driver fatigue, retrofitting of shoulders with rumble strips, and focus on commercial vehicle drivers and fatigue. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has implemented rules governing hours when commercial drivers can operate, with the objective being to combat fatigue. FMCSA analytical models suggest such rules as well as other regulations and administrative actions have significantly reduced fatalities involving trucks and fatigued truck operators. Legislation to ban the use of cell phones in cars has been proposed and enacted at the state and local level. Such legislation has met with resistance from some, and in other instances concern about enforcement and eventual effectiveness has been voiced. Only one of eleven state DOT comprehensive safety plans specifically mentioned drowsy and distracted driving as an emphasis area of interest. There is a recognized need to increase the amount of convenient and usable safe parking space for both commercial drivers as well as others needing to rest. A number of states are implementing programs to build and expand rest areas, and in some cases lease or acquire private parking areas near interchanges for use by commercial drivers.

27 Updated and Refined Estimates of Effectiveness The original study cited implementation of rumble strips as well as hours of service legislation for commercial drivers as the source of potential benefits. With respect to the former, benefits from implementation of rumble strips on two-lane highways are discussed and accrued in areas 15 and 16, and so to prevent double counting are not shown here. With respect to hours of service legislation, additional benefits measured against current levels are not estimated as the rules are in place within the industry. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost No costs are accrued in this emphasis area. Costs to retrofit highways with rumble strips are shown in other emphasis areas. It is assumed that FMCSA activities and individual state enforcement of commercial driver regulations will continue at current levels.

28 Area 7 Increasing Driver Safety Awareness According to NHTSA, 42,636 fatalities and 2.8 million injuries resulted from traffic crashes in Area 7 deals with the general subject of driver awareness of risk and specific behaviors. This area specifically mentions awareness of drinking and driving, proper restraint use, aggressive driving including speeding, drowsy and distracted driving, and knowledge of the rules of the road. Progress Since 2000 The best measure of progress is performance in terms of changes actual safety performance and observations of high-risk behaviors. These are discussed specifically in other segments of this report (e.g., area 8 on safety belt usage). Status of Full Implementation, Effectiveness and Costs Strategies in this area include primarily public information campaigns, both specific (such as the recent national click it or ticket campaign) and general in nature. Four of the eleven state plans reviewed for this study referenced this emphasis area; others noted it indirectly through strategies discussed in other emphasis areas. Safe driving practices for younger drivers are covered in area 1; older driving issues in area 3, high risk driving behaviors in area 4 covering aggressive driving, seat belt usage in area 8, and motorcycle driving practices and behaviors in area 11. The previous study assigned a nominal 1% effectiveness to increased general awareness. It also assumed a nominal value of $1 million per year per state covering expenditures for public information campaigns of a general nature (e.g., designation and publicizing dates such as October 10, Put the Brakes on Fatalities Day. This study retains this nominal 1% effectiveness and $51 million annual cost associated with emphasis area 7, applying it to current levels. Increasing driver safety awareness nationally has the potential of saving 430 fatalities annually. Annual costs to promote safety awareness of $51 million are considered appropriate.

29 Area 8 Increasing Safety Belt Usage and Improving Air Bag Effectiveness Safety belts, child restraints and in-vehicle airbags are proven effective at saving lives and reducing injuries. This strategy focuses on increasing usage of such equipment by drivers and occupants. Progress Since 2000 Steady progress has been made on this important emphasis area. As shown in Figure 8.1 below, measured usage nationally of seat belts has steadily increased from 67 percent to over 80 percent in This has been accompanied by a steady decline in the number of fatalities in which the vehicle occupant was unrestrained. Occupant Restraint Involvement in Fatal Crashes, By Year 18, % 80.0% Number of Unrestrained Vehicle Occupants Killed 17,500 17,000 16,500 16, % 76.0% 74.0% 72.0% 70.0% Nationwide Safety Belt Use Rate Number of Unrestrained Occupants Killed Safety Belt Use Rate 68.0% 15, Year 66.0% Figure 8.1 National Trends in Safety Belt Usage (source: NHTSA) At the individual state level fully half the states have usage of over 80%, with five states (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Michigan and Oregon) over 90% usage in Status of Full Implementation Strategies applicable to the highway industry include adoption of standard (primary) seat belt laws and elimination of gaps in child restraint laws; coupled with intensive, coordinated enforcement of those laws (which would include public awareness of the laws and sanctions under them.) Research has demonstrated a clear linkage between the enactment of primary seat belt laws and increased seat belt usage. All states except New Hampshire have mandatory seat belt

30 laws; but as of September 2005 fewer than half (22 states and the District of Columbia) had primary seat belt laws. All states with the exception of Oregon have enacted various versions of young passenger restraint laws. NHTSA considers a goal of 90% restraint usage nationally to be achievable. Updated and Refined Estimates In the previous study estimated benefits were 4550 lives, reflective of 69% restraint usage in Based on NHTSA s assessment of research and the current status of restraint usage, each one percent increase in restraint usage translates to a potential saving of 270 lives. With 2004 as a baseline and reported usage of 80% in that year, potential benefits annually for a nominal goal of 90% usage are 2700 fatalities per year. Effectiveness of child restraint law enactment and implementation is included in this. These estimates are consistent with the first study; the lower benefit reflects real progress made to date and no change in the 90% usage goal. As with the earlier study no attempt was made to address advances in airbags or other invehicle technologies. Strategies to increase proper usage of seat belts and child restraints would save an estimated 2700 lives annually over current levels. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost In the earlier study costs to conduct public information and enforcement campaigns, based on limited state data, were estimated to be $1.2 million per state or a total of $60 million. Minnesota s state plan is consistent, describing a $500,000 public information campaign and $750,000 enforcement campaign. Strategies to increase proper usage of seat belts and child restraints would cost on the order of $60 million annually, assuming all states enact and then commit to enforcement of seat belt use and child restraint laws.

31 Area 9 Making Walking and Street Crossing Safer Pedestrians are particularly vulnerable users of the roadway and street system. Area 9 of AASHTO s Strategic Highway Safety Plan addresses the safety concerns and needs of pedestrians. According to national statistics, roughly two-thirds of pedestrian fatalities occur in urban areas and one third occur at intersections. AASHTO s plan discusses a number of strategies, including new guides, warrants and design policies, comprehensive (engineering, enforcement, education) to address impaired pedestrians, more outreach and training in pedestrian safety, specific programs to address intersection safety, and targeted, comprehensive integrated pedestrian safety programs in urban areas and select rural areas. Progress Since 2000 Pedestrian safety is an area where some progress has been made* (Note that the trend evident through 2004 suffered a reversal based on just-released figures for Pedestrian fatalities appear to have risen significantly in the most recent year.). Figure 9.1 shows that pedestrian fatalities have steadily declined since 1994 and 2000 both in real terms and as a percentage of the total highway fatality problem % Figure 9.1 Trends in Pedestrian Fatalities (Source: NHTSA) 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Pedestrians Killed in Traffic Crashes Ped fatalities as % of Total The initial study referenced 1999 data. From 1999 to 2004, pedestrian fatalities have decreased from 4939 to 4641, a reduction of 298 or 6% in just five years. These trends are encouraging, particularly given the increased emphasis on and interest in walking.

32 Status of Full Implementation Five of the ten state plans reviewed targeted this emphasis area for work or actions consistent with the AASHTO plan. This is consistent with the urban nature of the problem; in many states that are primarily rural, the pedestrian safety problem is of a lesser priority or not clearly a target of opportunity compared with more urban states. Nevada s plan includes a broad-based pedestrian safety public information campaign, targeted enforcement at selected locations, and infrastructure investments at intersections and other locations. On a national level, there have been a number of efforts to produce guidance documents and educate engineers and other stakeholders on sensitivity to pedestrian safety as part of infrastructure planning and design. See, for example, FHWA s pedestrian safety countermeasure toolset: ( Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates That initial study suggested an overall goal of 490 to 735 fatalities was achievable from a baseline number of fatalities of In five years we have reached 50% of the low end target. There is clearly an awareness of pedestrian safety and a growing body of technical knowledge and effort being expended in the area of pedestrian safety. At this rate by the year 2010 it is reasonable to assume the initial goal is achievable; indeed, the higher end of the goal (a reduction of 735 fatalities from the 4939 in 1999) is a worthy target. A target number of pedestrian fatalities of 4200, is considered achievable by the year 2010, representing a reduction of 440 pedestrian fatalities or 9.5% from current (2004) level. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study estimated pedestrian safety program costs at $24 million per year and $121 million in capital costs. These numbers were extrapolations from limited information. Figure 9.2 Trends in Federal Spending on Pedestrian and Bicycle Improvements (Source: FHWA)

33 Figure 9.2, taken from recently published guidance documents on pedestrian safety by the FHWA, shows federal spending on pedestrians and bicycle improvements to be on the order of $430 million annually. It is likely that spending at the state and local level is on a similar level. Many states have developed policies for allocating a portion of their highway funds to pedestrian improvements, often sharing costs with local units of government. Of course, many of these expenditures are not purely safety based but more properly viewed as mobility based or consistent with promotion of choice and creating a pedestrianfriendly environment at the local or even project level. There are also substantial expenditures necessary to implement ADA regulations. It is difficult to sort out on an aggregate basis the attribution of spending to measurable safety versus mobility objectives. Further complicating the analysis is the understanding that the promotion of walking also increases safety risk associated with pedestrian interaction with motor vehicles. Finally, recall that Figure 9.2 reports spending on bicycle improvements for mobility and safety. A conservative assumption is that only one quarter of the spending levels cited above are attributable to actions that would in the aggregate have a positive influence on pedestrian safety; and further that a like expenditure at the state and local level would follow. On this basis an estimate of the annual costs nationally is set at $215 million per year. Given that recent trends are favorable in terms of pedestrian safety, continuation of current expenditures should enable reaching the stated goal. Infrastructure and other expenditures associated with pedestrian safety are estimated to cost $215 million per year.

34 Area 10 Ensuring Safer Bicycle Travel Fatalities involving bicyclists represent about 2% of all fatalities nationally, with about 20% of fatalities involving children (under age of 16). The extent of bicycle safety problems varies widely across the country. In ten states the number of reported fatalities is two or fewer. Almost one third of such reported fatalities occurred in just two states California and Florida. AASHTO s Strategic Highway Safety Plan suggests a range of strategies, including bicycle facility infrastructure, public information campaigns, and enactment of legislation mandating the use of helmets by bicyclists. Four of the ten state plans reviewed for this study (Illinois, Michigan, Arizona and Washington) identified bicycle safety as a targeted concern. Progress Since 2000 In 2004, NHTSA reports bicycle fatalities totaled 725 versus 693 from the year While this appears to represent no progress, Figure 10.1 below suggests otherwise. From the mid- 1990s the number of bicycle fatalities has decreased, although somewhat inconsistently from year to year. Indeed, the most recently reported figures for 2004 showed an increase over the previous year, from 629 to 725 bicycle fatalities. Whether this is a one-year event or a reversal of the long term trend will not be clear until 2005 data are made available. Note that trends in fatalities are difficult to evaluate given the lack of exposure data (i.e., either vehicle miles of travel ridden or registration information). Promotion of bicycle riding has resulted in increased ridership which would increase risk, but this is difficult to quantify. One clear trend is evident from the data and consistent with recent trends and emphases on bicycle riding. NHTSA reports that pedalcyclists age 25 and older have made up an increasing proportion of all pedalcyclist deaths since The proportion of pedalcyclist fatalities age 25 to 64 was 1.4 times higher in 2004 than in 1994 (56% and 41%, respectively) Figure 10.1 Recent Trends in Pedalcycle Fatalities (Source: NHTSA) 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Pedalcyclists Killed in Traffic Crashes Pedalcycle fatalities as % of Total

35 Status of Full Implementation Research suggests that wearing helmets is the single most effective strategy for mitigating or reducing fatalities and serious injuries. About 70% of bicycle fatalities involve head injuries. Helmets are proven effective at the 85% to 90% level. Twenty states (including the District of Columbia as well as California and Florida) have enacted legislation mandating the use of helmets for younger riders. Reported data are not of sufficient detail to allow for analysis of the effectiveness of such legislation, but given that such legislation does not address about 80% of bicycle fatalities (which involve older riders for whom the legislation does not typically apply), the effect would be relatively small. The focus of strategies associated with older riders is education and awareness of the need to wear helmets when riding and promotion of safe riding practices. For example, Minnesota s state plan suggests a $0.5 million annual public information campaign is appropriate. Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates The original study suggested a potential reduction in bicycle fatalities of 200 per year associated with increasing helmet usage from reported level of 50 percent usage to 75 percent usage, and increased safety awareness. No more recent studies were discovered. Given recent longer term favorable trends, assuming states with known bicycle fatality problems take proactive measures consistent with the AASHTO plan, the goal established in the original study is considered reasonable. This goal is referenced to 2004 levels (725 fatalities), which was close to reported fatalities in A potential saving of 200 lives annually over current levels is possible in the area of fatalities associated with bicycle riding. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study assigned a nominal cost per state to conduct public information campaigns and special programs for law enforcement officers. This total cost was $17.5 million annually. It is roughly consistent with a level of investment suggested by Minnesota s plan. Given that bicycle fatalities are clearly a problem in some but not all states, it is reasonable to assume such a cost would accrue only to those states in which the number of fatalities was significant. Based on state statistics from NHTSA, there are 16 states with either a high frequency (20 or more) or high rate compared to national averages (2.47 per million population). In these 16 states 492 fatalities occurred, or 68 percent of the national total. A reasonable basis for annual costs is $0.5 million for these 16 states. Annual costs of $8 million to promote safety awareness and specifically increase helmet usage are considered reasonable.

36 Area 11 Motorcycle Safety Awareness Motorcyclists represent special users and have unique risk profile and needs. Area 11 of the AASHTO SHSP deals with the safety characteristics of motorcycles and motorcycle riders. Progress Since 2000 Progress in the area of motorcycle safety is clearly the single greatest failure of the 22 emphasis areas, and has become a major cause of concern within the highway safety community. Over the past five to ten years motorcycle use has increased, motorcycle crashes have increased at a greater rate, and serious motorcycle crashes (injuries and fatalities) have increased at an even greater rate. These trends have run counter to virtually every other significant trend in highway safety. As shown below in Figure 11.1, motorcycle fatalities in 1993 were just over 2300; in 2000 they were 2900, and in the most recent year for which data are available, 2004, they increased to over During this time the number of registered motorcycles has steadily increased, but mileage driven has only modestly increased. Hence the motorcycle fatality rate also has increased as it shown in Figure Motorcyclist Involvement in Fatal Crashes, By Year Figure 4,000 3, , Number of Motorcyclist Fatalities 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Motorcyclist Fatality Rate per MVMT Motorcyclist Fatalities Motorcyclist Fatality Rate Year Figure 11.1 National Trends in Motorcycle Fatalities (source: NHTSA) 0.00 According to NHTSA, based on miles driven, motorcycle riders are now 32 times more likely to die in a crash than occupants of passenger cars. Should these current trends continue motorcycles would eventually represent an astounding 10% or more of the total highway safety fatality problem in the U.S.* (Note that this prediction has unfortunately come to pass according to year 2005 figures released since publication of the Draft report.)

37 An interesting demographic attribute of motorcycle fatalities is the age of the driver. In 1994 about 23 percent of motorcycle fatalities (541) involved drivers over the age of 40. In 2004 that number had nearly quadrupled, to 1847, or over 46% of total fatalities. Status of Implementation The AASHTO Plan references driver education, infrastructure strategies, and equipment usage. Foremost among the latter is the usage of effective helmets. The NCHRP Report 500 series document on Motorcycle awareness and safety (in final draft stages) identifies helmets as the most effective means of addressing or minimizing motorcycle fatalities. Moreover, based on numerous studies, and consistent with experience with seat belt usage, state legislation mandating the wearing of helmets is the single most effective strategy. Here, again, arguably the greatest failure within the highway safety community has been the ability to persuade state legislatures to enact mandatory helmet use legislation. Indeed, in a number of states helmet laws have been repealed (with predictable adverse effects on fatalities); in other states debates are currently being held about either passage or repealing of legislation. And, in a number of states, helmet legislation that has been passed focuses on younger riders (not the group experiencing the great increases as noted above). Table 11.1 shows the status of legislation as of April Studies have documented a direct relationship between the existence of helmet legislation and helmet usage. According to NHTSA s National Occupant Protection Use Survey, a nationally representative observational survey of motorcycle helmet, safety belt, and child safety seat use, helmet use declined by 13 percentage points over 4 years, from 71 percent in 2000 to 58 percent in This drop is statistically significant and corresponds to a striking 45-percent increase in nonuse. It also comes in the face of contrary positive trends with respect to safety belt usage. Table 11.1 Current Status of Motorcycle Legislation State Universal law (covers all riders) Motorcycle helmets Partial law (covers young riders or some adult riders) Alabama X Alaska 17 and younger 1 Arizona 17 and younger Arkansas 20 and younger California X Colorado no motorcycle helmet use law Connecticut 17 and younger Delaware 18 and younger District of Columbia X Florida 20 and younger 2 Georgia X Hawaii 17 and younger Idaho 17 and younger Illinois no motorcycle helmet use law Indiana 17 and younger

38 Iowa no motorcycle helmet use law Kansas 17 and younger Kentucky 20 and younger 2,3 Louisiana X Maine 14 and younger 3 Maryland X Massachusetts X Michigan X Minnesota 17 and younger 3 Mississippi X Missouri X Montana 17 and younger Nebraska X Nevada X New Hampshire no motorcycle helmet use law New Jersey X New Mexico 17 and younger New York X North Carolina X North Dakota 17 and younger 4 Ohio 17 and younger 5 Oklahoma 17 and younger Oregon X Pennsylvania 20 and younger 6 Rhode Island 20 and younger 6 South Carolina 20 and younger South Dakota 17 and younger Tennessee X Texas 20 and younger 2 Utah 17 and younger Vermont X Virginia X Washington X West Virginia X Wisconsin 17 and younger 3 Wyoming 18 and younger 1 Alaska's motorcycle helmet use law covers passengers of all ages, operators younger than 18, and operators with instructional permits. 2 In Florida and Kentucky, the law requires that all riders younger than 21 yrs. wear helmets, without exception. In Florida, those 21 yrs. and older may ride without helmets only if they can show proof that they are covered by a medical insurance policy. Texas exempts riders 21 yrs. or older if they either 1) can show proof of successfully completing a motorcycle operator training and safety course or 2) can show proof of having a medical insurance policy. 3 Motorcycle helmet laws in Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, and W isconsin also cover operators with instructional/learner's permits. Maine's motorcycle helmet use law also covers passengers 14 years and younger and passengers if their operators are required to wear a helmet. 4 North Dakota's motorcycle helmet use law covers all passengers traveling with operators who are covered by the law. 5 Ohio's motorcycle helmet use law covers all operators during the first year of licensure and all passengers of operators who are covered by the law. 6 Rhode Island's motorcycle helmet use law covers all passengers (regardless of age) and all operators during the first year of licensure (regardless of age). Pennsylvania's motorcycle helmet use law covers all operators during the first two years of licensure unless the operator has completed the safety course approved by the department or the Motorcycle Safety Foundation.

39 Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates The original study assigned a potential effectiveness or savings primarily associated with the passage and enforcement of mandatory helmet use legislation. In the original study the estimated savings in lives was 380 per year. Given the current status of helmet usage, increased ridership and worsened current safety performance, NHTSA now estimates that 671 lives could be saved annually based on current ridership with 100% helmet usage. Assuming registration and ridership trends continue, this saving would increase over time. Annual savings of 670 lives over current levels is achievable. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study did not develop costs for this area, given that the primary emphasis was legislation. No special enforcement actions are contemplated or called for. The AASHTO plan and some states are developing programs focusing on rider education and voluntary use of helmets. The Minnesota state plan discusses a nominal budget of $50,000 to provide resources for data assembly, analysis and staff time in working with legislators. For the purposes of an overall programmatic cost, and given the emerging importance of this specific area, a cost of $250,000 for local studies, stakeholder meetings and targeted rider campaigns is reasonable. This translates to a national cost of $13 million per year to promote motorcycle safety and facilitate legislative action. Annual costs of $13 million, primarily associated with legislative, administrative, training and rider education are estimated.

40 Area 12 Making Truck Traffic Safer Trucks are overrepresented in the frequency and severity of fatal crashes. According to NHTSA, in 2004 over 416,000 large trucks (gross vehicle weight rating greater than 10,000 pounds) were involved in traffic crashes in the United States; 4,862 were involved in fatal crashes. A total of 5,190 people died (12% of all the traffic fatalities reported in 2004) and an additional 116,000 were injured in those crashes. One out of eight traffic fatalities in 2004 resulted from a collision involving a large truck. Area 12 of AASHTO s Strategic Highway Safety Plan addresses the safety effects of large trucks in the vehicle stream. Progress Since 2000 Since 2000 the number of fatal crashes involving large trucks has dropped slightly, from 4573 to A reversal of a positive trend finds large truck fatal crashes increasing two years straight from a low of 4224 in 2002 to the current (2004) number of Over a longer time period the general trend has bee for the difference in fatal crash rates between trucks and cars to narrow. In 2003, large trucks accounted for 3 percent of all registered vehicles and 7 percent of total vehicle miles traveled (2004 registered vehicle and vehicle miles traveled data not available). In 2004, large trucks accounted for 8 percent of all vehicles involved in fatal crashes and 4 percent of all vehicles involved in injury and property-damage-only crashes. Status of Implementation The AASHTO describes a range of strategies, including focusing commercial vehicle program regulations on crash reductions, addressing driver fatigue and driver error, addressing infrastructure and traffic control needs related to the unique aspects of trucks, and enhancing the safe operating condition of trucks. A significant contribution to this area is the responsibility of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, which has as its mission the reduction in fatalities and serious injuries involving large trucks and buses. FMCSA s goal is to reduce the fatality rate by 50 percent as measured from a 1996 baseline year. Up through 2002 the trend was strong and positive, with the rate of fatalities decreasing from 2.81 in 1996 to 2.30 in From 2002 to 2004, though, the rate has changed little; and was at 2.29 per 100 MVMT in Four of the eleven state strategic plans directly referred to strategies involving trucks and truck safety. Illinois plan references compliance with federal regulations and implementation of many of FMCSA s programs and initiatives. Illinois also makes reference of the need to look for engineering and enforcement actions of a targeted nature. Updated and Refined Estimates of Effectiveness The original study noted that much of FMCSA s programs had been enacted and were in place as of 2000, and hence it was difficult to estimate future benefits (under the assumption that the programs would continue in place). Note that the agency has developed and used models to estimate the impacts in terms of reduced crashes, injuries and fatalities, of their

41 key programs, including compliance with regulations, roadside inspection and traffic enforcement. According to the FMCSA, their models suggest a saving of about 750 to 800 lives annually for 2002 through 2004 associated with these activities. Given that these programs have been in place and are continuing, estimates of benefits exclude these; clearly should such programs be discontinued an increase in truck crashes would be expected. The original study estimated a savings of 40 fatalities per year were possible reflecting a greater awareness and targeted infrastructure improvements to address truck operational needs. These estimates remain valid. Reductions in large truck crash fatalities at the rate of 40 per year are achievable. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study assigned a capital cost of $30 million for infrastructure (low cost improvements at selected locations, including ramp reconstruction and ITS solutions) and referenced a national public information campaign. The former cost is believed low to achieve needed benefits. No firm data area available, but a nominal estimate of $100 million is more reasonable given the nature of the problem. A nominal $5 million annual cost for state and national public information on truck issues is adopted here. Costs attributable to large truck safety are $100 million capital and $5 million annual costs.

42 Area 13 Increasing Safety Enhancements in Vehicles Area 13 focuses on improvements to vehicle technology to enhance safety. These include ITS navigational and crash avoidance technologies. There has been considerable research and development on in-vehicle technologies by FHWA and the motor vehicle industry. The SHRP II research effort funded under SAFETEA-LU calls for significant research efforts in this area. In the long term, the full deployment of in-vehicle navigation, warning and even control technologies for safety may occur, but this will be over a significant time frame given the need for the entire vehicle fleet to turn over. Benefits to society of widespread deployment of in-vehicle technologies are speculative. Indeed, first generation efforts (anti-lock braking systems) have not met the expectations of many. Moreover, there is a question about effects on driver behavior over time should such systems be implemented. Some believe that automating the driving process will further encourage unwanted behaviors such as cell phone usage. In general, though, there is a consensus that in-vehicle technologies offer a substantial potential benefit to reducing crashes and minimizing their severity. As of 2004, though, both the costs and benefits of such systems on a national basis are difficult to estimate, and clearly would not be seen until well after 2010.

43 Area 14 Reducing Vehicle-Train Collisions In 2005 there were 2,604 rail/highway crossing collisions, with 277 of the collisions resulting in 856 people injured and 321 killed. Area 14 of AASHTO s Strategic Highway Safety Plan addresses injuries and fatalities in associated with vehicle-train collisions. According to the Federal Railroad Administration there are about 250,000 public and private crossings in the U.S. Reducing fatal and serious injury crashes generally involves addressing the manner of control at such locations and increasing driver awareness of the hazards of atgrade crossings. Progress Since 2000 Figure 14.1, taken from data compiled by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), shows that both the number of fatalities and their relative proportion of overall highway fatalities have shown improvement since The number of fatalities at railroad grade crossings has decreased from 425 to 368 (a reduction of 13.4%), with the total fatalities now representing less than 1 percent of the nation s fatality problem. (Preliminary data suggest the positive trends are continuing, with 2005 fatalities reported to be 321.) These trends are significant given overall increases in both highway and rail traffic % 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% People Killed in Vehicle-Train Crashes Percent of Total Fatalities Figure 14.1 Trends in the Number of Highway-Rail at-grade Crossing Fatalities (Source: FRA) Status of Full Implementation The AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan discusses the need for deployment of active warning devices, improved driver training and knowledge, and implementation of the USDOT Grade Crossing Safety Report. Review of safety data shows that this problem is not widespread but rather focused in certain states with high numbers of grade crossings. For example, based on 2005 data from the FRA, the 11 states with at least 10 fatal crash locations accounted for 169 of the 368

44 fatalities fully 46% of the national total. Eighteen states experienced either zero or one grade crossing fatality in Of the eleven state comprehensive plans reviewed in detail, only one Illinois specified this as an emphasis area. Illinois led the nation in grade crossing fatalities with 29 in Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates The original study noted a potential crash reduction benefit of 40 to 50 fatalities per year and 1220 injuries per year, primarily associated with grade crossing improvements consistent with the USDOT Grade Crossing Safety Report. This estimate was based on treating high risk crossings estimated to be about 146 in the five states with the greatest problems as defined by multiple serious accidents over a 5-year period. The Georgia State Safety Plan assumes an effectiveness of 0.1 fatalities reduced for each 100 crashes at grade crossings a relatively modest but appropriate assumption. Illinois plan also indicates upgrading of crossing controls (gates, flashers, etc.) is central to addressing this problem. The data from 2004 show that 127 of the 277 locations where fatalities occurred were controlled with gates, indicating such positive control in itself is not entirely effective. However, the alternatives (grade separations) are so costly as to be meaningful only in extreme situations. In reviewing the progress from 2000 to 2004 we have already met the forecast of 40 to 50 fatalities per year data suggest further reductions are being experienced. Given that effectiveness has been demonstrated, the problem is well-defined, and resources are being committed to it, further reductions appear reasonable; on the order of 60 fatalities per year. Reductions in highway-rail grade crossing fatalities of 80 per year compared with 2004 levels are achievable. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study included capital costs for grade separations as part of an overall safety strategy. The Georgia State Safety Plan allocates $2.5 million per year to implement trainactivated, positive warning devices at crossings. Their nominal cost per location is $150,000. Grade separations are very costly (on the order of $20 million or more) and most often implemented as a mobility improvement versus a safety improvement. As a basis for establishing a national aggregate cost associated purely with saving lives, inclusion of grade separations is not considered appropriately. The Georgia state plan is used as the basis for development of a national cost estimate. Assuming conservatively that only the 11 states representing half the fatalities invest a like sum annually an estimated $27.5 million per year in railroad grade crossing improvements would occur. This is a substantial reduction in the estimated costs from the original study. Costs to improve railroad grade crossing safety on the order of $27.5 million annually appear appropriate.

45 Area 15 Keeping Vehicles on the Road The majority of fatal crashes involve departures from the roadway or their proper direction of travel. Area 15 of the AASHTO SHSP involves strategies to prevent or minimize road departure. According to FHWA, in 2003 there were over 25,000 road departure fatalities, representing 59% of the total fatal crash problem. These include both single vehicle run-off-road fatalities as well as head-on and same direction sideswipe crashes. The problem is primarily rural in nature, with over 80 percent of single vehicle run-off-road fatalities occurring in rural areas. Progress Since 2000 The magnitude of the problem is little changed since the original study. The FHWA through research has promoted shoulder rumble strips as a highly effective, low-cost countermeasure. It is one of their market ready technologies, is referenced as a proven technology in the NCHRP Report 500 series guidance document on Run-off-road crashes, and is promoted in FHWA s Low-cost Safety Improvements workshop Nine of the eleven state plans reviewed for this study identified lane departure as a key area of emphasis. States that outlined strategies focused on implementation of shoulder and in some instances centerline rumble strips as a primary strategy for the two-lane rural problem. A number of states have developed specifications and standard designs for rumble strips and are in various stages of implementing them systemwide. Data were not obtained documenting the extent of coverage or treatment with rumble strips. Updated Estimates of Effectiveness The original study focused on rumble strip placement as the primary means of reducing this crash type. Research was cited that suggested rumble strips are effective in reducing single vehicle run-off-road crashes by 20%. This research is still considered valid. The study also assumed that rumble strips would be cost-effective for roads with ADT greater than A number of states have developed criteria that are consistent with this value. The original study also attributed a marginal saving of 70 fatalities annually associated with programmatic implementation of improved pavement markings The original study estimated benefits associated with this emphasis area at 500 to 810 fatal crashes per year. The lower figure is associated with the ADT range of 3000 vpd and therefore believed reasonable for use in this study. This number of crashes translates to about 540 fatalities per year. Implementation of a targeted program of rumble strip placement and upgraded roadway delineation can produce savings of 610 fatalities per year. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study cited unit cost figures of $7,000 per mile based on available information from a number of state DOTs. Since that time unit costs have dropped considerably, with an appropriate value of $1000 per shoulder mile or $2000 per lane mile. Assuming approximately 250,000 miles of coverage for all roads with sufficient traffic volume, this translates to $0.5 billion.

46 Some states have implemented strategies in this area to widen or upgrade shoulders. For the purposes of estimating benefits and costs these strategies are addressed in emphasis area 15. Other costs of $100 million are associated with upgrading of pavement markings on more of the system. Costs of $600 million would address road departure crash problems on two-lane rural highways

47 Area 16 Minimize the Consequences of Leaving the Roadway Single vehicle run-off-road crashes are among the greatest contributors to highway fatalities. This area of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan addresses the how the quality of the roadside can be improved to minimize severe crashes should a run-off-road event occur. Progress Since 2000 Aggregate statistics suggest little progress has been made in this emphasis area. A query of the FARS database shows that the number of fatal crashes in which the first harmful event was striking of an object (including trees, light poles, guardrails, ditch, embankment, etc.) is virtually unchanged from 11,380 in 2000 (resulting in 19,590 fatalities) to 11,218 in 2004 (resulting in 19,626 fatalities). The statistics are similar for most harmful event with little change in the number of crashes and fatalities in four years. At the state level, nine states have seen the numbers of such fatalities increase by more than 10% from 2000 to 2004, with significant decreases in 22 states. Also, there is some evidence of progress in mitigating certain roadside hazards. Based on information from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, the number of utility pole crash fatalities is lower in 2003 than was reported in the original study (1190 versus 1300). However, fatal crashes involving trees appear to be a significantly increasing problem. IIHS research shows 4530 fatalities resulting from crashes with trees in The original study cited FARS data for 1999 showing 3010 fatalities from tree crashes. Trees are now the most common fixed object struck in single vehicle fatal crashes, representing 50% of objects struck (up from 39% in 1999). Regarding the issue of trees, an important trend to monitor is the issue of safe placement of trees in the urban and suburban street environment. Strong and growing interest in walkable and livable communities has led to many local governments adopting tree planting programs along arterials. Some considerable efforts have been made to understand the safety implications of such programs, particularly associated with moderate to higher speed arterial highways. These efforts include design and implementation of special curb/barrier designs. A difficulty in monitoring these effects is that in most locations newly planted trees do not now represent a substantive safety concern, but over many years as their size increases the potential risk to drivers also may increase. Status of Full Implementation Nine of the eleven state plans reviewed for this study showed this emphasis area as a concern. The FHWA has identified road departure crashes as a key area of concern, with roadside safety an integral part of this area. This area is among those for which state DOT infrastructure and safety programs would be targeted. Clearing of roadsides, relocation of utility poles, upgrading and improving roadside safety hardware (guardrail, impact attenuation) are all elements. One representative state, Georgia, is planning on investing about $40 million per year, targeting 350 miles per year for guardrail and related improvements; $5.6 million per year on hazardous tree removal (with much of that focused on interstate mileage); $5 million per year at a 50% match with utility companies to relocate utility poles, and $15 million per year

48 to improve 30 miles of roadway ditch and backslopes to address rollover and run-off-road crashes. Updated and Refined Estimates of Effectiveness The original study derived estimates of effectiveness for tree removal at 350 to 900 fatalities annually; utility pole relocation at 435 fatalities and ditch reconstruction at about 100 fatalities per year. Given that tree crashes have emerged as a greater proportion of the problem from 5 years ago the higher end figure is believed appropriate. Some apparent progress on utility pole crashes leads to a reduction in the goal (to 350 fatalities per year); and we retain the estimate for ditch reconstruction. Note that reduced fatal crashes and fatalities on the system will be attained in combination with strategies in area 15 (keeping vehicles on the road). A total of 1350 lives could be saved annually by strategies aimed at minimizing the consequences of leaving the roadway. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study was based on sparse data from just one state. Now that states have had the time to evaluate and develop programs more reliable estimates are available. Among the more definitive plans that is considered representative is Georgia s. Data from the Georgia state plan were used to estimate programmatic costs of roadside and other relevant improvements. Upgrade roadside safety $12,000 per mile Upgrade $19,000 per shoulder mile for interstate; and $30,000 per shoulder mile for 2-lane rural highways Upgrade ditches and backslopes to improve safety for per shoulder mile Upgrade utility lines to improve $225,000 (distribution lines) to $450,000 (transmission lines) per mile Two-lane rural highways have relatively lower volumes but much worse roadsides than higher class facilities. The costs reflect the relatively greater problems associated with significant improvements to rural highways, which may include earthwork for ditch and slope improvements and right-of-way acquisition: Representative costs per mile were established for a range of highway types: Two-lane rural highways and local roads -- $50,000 per mile Interstates and multilane expressways -- $40,000 per mile Urban and suburban arterials $100,000 per mile For purposes of accumulating costs it is expected that most of the need is associated with the two-lane rural highway system, and that, for example, safety based expenditures on urban and suburban arterials would be targeted to only few locations. The following

49 assumptions were made, consistent with general expectations of FHWA and our knowledge of what percentage of locations are outliers : Treat 5% of two-lane rural highway mileage Treat 2.5% of interstate and multilane expressway mileage Treat 1.0% of urban arterial mileage Based on these assumptions an estimated cost is established. This represents both capital and maintenance investments in the full range of roadside treatments, presumed to be focused on known safety problems. A national estimate of $6.7 billion is derived from this analysis. Note that this number compares favorably with the approximate $40 million annual investment over five years in roadside safety improvements by one state DOT Georgia. Extrapolating Georgia s program to the U.S. on the basis of proportionate mileage yields an estimate of $6.8 billion. A capital investment of $6.7 billion would address the most severe conditions leading to roadside encroachment fatalities.

50 Area 17 Improving the Design and Operation of Intersections Intersections are recognized as unique points of safety risk on the highway system. They are also necessary elements of the roadway system in both rural and urban areas. Area 17 of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan deals with the safety of intersections. Progress Since 2000 The original study cited FARS data from 1997 to 1999 that indicated 2600 fatalities at signalized intersections and 6300 at other, unsignalized intersections. Data published by FHWA indicate an increase in intersection fatalities to over 9200, with the majority (5667) occurring on arterials and 56% occurring in urban areas. Also according to FHWA, based on analysis of FARS data, on a national basis, fatal motor vehicle crashes at traffic signals increased 13.2 percent between 1993 and 2003, far outpacing the 6.6 percent rise in all other fatal crashes. While these trends appear unfavorable, note that increases in traffic on the system and growth of the highway system would have particular effect on exposure to intersection crashes. Status of Full Implementation FHWA focuses on intersections as a key safety topic. The AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan outlines four basic strategies for improving intersection safety, including automated enforcement, use of new technologies to improve signalization, and application of better access management policies to reduce conflicts. Eight of the 11 state comprehensive plans reviewed identified intersections as an area of focus. One safety-based strategy that has been applied widely and been proven effective is automated red-light running cameras. According to 2004 data from NHTSA's Fatality Analysis Reporting and General Estimates Systems, crashes caused by red light running (RLR) resulted in as many as 854 fatalities and more than 168,000 injuries. This is actually a reduction from 2003 estimates. Automated enforcement requires enabling legislation. Not all states have passed such legislation and some states have acted to prohibit this. According to the FHWA, red light cameras are permitted by law in 12 States and 37 cities. Where such cameras have been installed, results have been mixed. This is in many cases a result of insufficient planning to assure the right locations were targeted, or implementation of this strategy to generate citations (as opposed to reduce serious crashes). The consensus, though, is a well executed program will prove effective in reducing crash types that tend to be particularly severe (see further discussion below of the effectiveness of this strategy). The NCHRP Report 500 series guides expanded the list of strategies from technology based to include proven safety-based infrastructure strategies such as provision for left turn lanes, construction of roundabouts and other similar improvements. Most state comprehensive plans that address intersection safety incorporate these countermeasures. Updated Estimates of Effectiveness The original study cited an estimated 10 percent overall effectiveness from implementing red light running cameras at locations where they would be needed (assumed to be 3% of the signalized intersections nationally). This resulted in an estimated national saving of 105

51 fatalities annually. Other benefits from intersection infrastructure and technology solutions were estimated to be 225 fatalities annually. This estimate was based on a model that assigned unit costs, percent of estimated total intersections, and estimated effectiveness for a range of high, moderate and low cost solutions. The scientific community s consensus of the effectiveness of red light running cameras is that they reduce the highly severe angle collisions by 25%, but increase less severe rear end collisions by 15%. FHWA s published goal is to reduce intersection fatalities by 20 percent. Applied to the current total of 9200, this would amount to 1840 fatalities per year, a figure much greater than the original estimate. Note that this study aggregates fatality estimates and savings for older driver intersection crashes and pedestrian and bicycle crashes in other sections. A reevaluation of the original study s model assumptions and inputs was made using updated information. The original assumptions were modestly refined. The most significant revision was an updated estimate of the number of signalized intersections based on sampling of available data. In the original study we estimated there were 300,000 signalized intersections in the U.S. Our current estimate is that there are about 540,000 signalized intersections, with most of these in urban areas. Based on re-evaluation of data and models, our revised estimate of potential intersection savings is 85 fatalities annually from effective red-light running programs and 255 fatalities from other intersection improvements. These estimates are separate from fatalities that may occur at intersections but are accumulated in other emphasis areas. Also note that given the nature of intersection crashes and conflicts, addressing many other areas relating to driver behavior and competence (e.g., young and older drivers, impaired driving, drowsy and distracted driving) should be expected to reduce crashes at intersections. Implementation of effective intersection improvements, including red light running cameras and conventional technologies could result in a saving of 340 fatalities annually. Updated Estimates of Cost The cost model used in the earlier study was reviewed and updated. The total number of intersections was increased, but based on guidance and data for identifying high crash locations the number of treatable sites was decreased. Unit costs were increased to reflect inflation since the original report. A programmatic opinion of national costs to improve intersection safety and operations through mostly low cost but some moderate and high cost improvements is $8.43 billion (an increase from about $6.92 billion in the original study). Note that most of these costs are capital costs and would have useful life over ten to twenty years depending on the type of improvement. Implementation of proven technologies to improve intersection safety would cost on the order of $8.43 billion in 2006 capital costs.

52 Area 18 Reducing Head-on and Cross Median Crashes Head-on crashes are among the most severe experienced by drivers. According to the recently published NCHRP Report 500 Series Volume 4 guide, almost 20 percent of non intersection, non interchange fatal crashes involve two vehicles colliding head-on. The head-on crash problem is most evident on two-lane undivided rural highways, but is also a concern on divided highways and freeways with open or minimal medians and no positive barrier separation. Area of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan addresses the problems associated with head-on crashes on both rural two-lane highways and freeways. Progress Since 2000 Head-on fatal crashes have been addressed aggressively by many states. FHWA has encouraged and promoted low-cost, effective solutions such as centerline rumble strips for two-lane rural highways; and cable and other lower cost barrier systems for freeways. As shown below in Figure 18.1, FARS reports that the number of fatal head-on and opposite direction crashes on two-lane rural highways has dropped from 2933 to 2447, a reduction of almost 500 fatal crashes (16.4% reduction) between 2000 and (Of course, such reduction may include effects of other areas such as seatbelt usage, improved roadside design, speed enforcement, etc.) Fatal Crashes in 2000 Fatal Crashes in 2004 Figure 18.1 Non Junction Fatal Head-on and Opposite Direction Crashes on Two-lane Rural Undivided Highways (source: FARS) Progress at the state level is somewhat uneven. Thirteen states have reduced such crashes by more than 30%; but 17 states have experienced an increase in such crashes. With respect to head-on crashes on freeways, many states are finding that great increases in traffic volumes on rural freeways with open medians are creating head-on crash problems not previously seen. Figure 18.2 shows that the fatal head-on crash problem on rural

53 freeways and interstates has emerged as a major issue for states. (Crossover fatalities on urban freeways are not as great in number primarily because most high volume urban freeways already have positive median barriers.) The number of fatal crashes on such freeways has surged from 87 to 469, with total median fatal crashes in both rural and urban freeways being Rural Freeways and Interstates Urban Freeways and Interstates All Freeways and Interstates Figure 18.2 Head-on and Opposite Direction Fatal Crashes on Freeways and Interstates without Median Barriers (Source: FARS) Status of Full Implementation Solutions to this problem area are primarily infrastructure in nature. They include implementation of centerline rumble strips, signing and marking, and roadside design improvements. For freeways, implementation involves design, construction and placement of barriers in medians. Nine of the eleven state plans reviewed for this study indicated that head-on crashes was an emphasis area, with many states specifically mentioning infrastructure improvements consistent with NCHRP Report 500. The NCHRP Report 500 series guidance contains multiple examples of states aggressively implementing rumble strips and median barriers in response to emerging safety problems. A number of states (e.g., North and South Carolina, Minnesota) have initiated programs to implement median barriers to prevent cross-over head-on collisions. According to FHWA, there is one cross median fatality for every 200 miles of freeway. Significant increases in traffic volume and the great mileage of rural freeways potentially treatable make cost-effective barrier placement difficult. Increases in traffic volumes on rural interstates also complicate the problem, placing more miles at risk every year.

54 AASHTO is in the process of refining median barrier guidance for the AASHTO Roadside Design Guide, based largely on the clear national trends. Updated and Refined Estimates of Effectiveness The original study suggested a potential saving of 715 fatal crashes and 750 fatalities associated with two-lane rural highway improvements, and 50 to 140 fatalities from median barrier improvements. Recent trends noted above suggest that the former estimate is reachable and indeed may be low. However, the apparent surge in cross median fatalities suggests much work to be done (and potentially greater benefits long term). States are just now beginning to treat their two-lane highway system. Potential benefits associated with full implementation of centerline rumble strips and other related treatments suggest a further reduction of 15% from current levels (2447 fatal head-on crashes), or 370 fatal crashes, is possible. For freeway crossover fatalities, a slightly revised approach the original study is used as the basis for estimating benefits. The experiences in North and South Carolina seem to demonstrate a greater potential for effectiveness than was originally estimated. With good crash data states ought to be able to target more than 25% of fatal crossover crashes than was originally assumed. Doubling this estimate (in other words, 50% of median crossover crashes are treatable through barrier implementation) means that the potential exists to reduce fatal crashes by 50% of 503, say, 250 fatal crashes. Median barriers should in the net reduce fatalities by 90% (some increase in single vehicle run-off-road injuries and fatalities may occur with placement of barrier). Assuming a 90% effectiveness on the 250 fatal crashes results in a potential estimated reduction of 235 fatal crashes. Implementation of treatments to two-lane rural highways and median barriers on open section urban and rural freeways offers the potential to reduce fatal crashes by 605 fatal crashes over current levels. This translates to about 675 fatalities annually. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study estimated total costs in this emphasis area of $950 million to $2.6 billion for both two-lane highway and rural freeway infrastructure improvements. Some refinements to both methodology and updating of unit costs were performed for this effort. For implementation of rumble strips it was assumed these would be placed on all two-lane rural mileage with traffic volume greater than 3000 vpd as per the original study assumptions. Updated cost figures for this technology suggest a lower unit cost of only $1000 per mile, resulting in an updated cost estimate of $300 million. No reduction of this cost is made for mileage already treated as this is not known but believed to be relatively small in proportion to total applicable mileage. For implementation of median barrier, the experiences of both North and South Carolina and cost figures from other states were used for both the extent of treatment possible and unit costs to complete. An estimate of $840 million for treatment of rural and urban freeway and expressway medians lacking barriers and potentially in need of barriers is considered appropriate.

55 Implementation of countermeasures to address head-on fatalities is estimated to cost $1.14 billion in capital costs, and indeterminate additional costs associated with maintenance of the improvements.

56 Area 19 Design Safer Work Zones Work zones represent special risks to both motorists and highway workers. Work zones have become an unpleasant but unavoidable fact of life on the highway system. The difficulty of safe construction and reconstruction of a highway while maintaining traffic on it is among the greatest challenges for highway agencies. Area 19 of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan addresses this problem. Progress Since 2000 Trends in this area are difficult to assess. As shown below in Figure 19.1, fatalities in work zones have increased slightly from 2000, but much of that is attributed to a spike in fatalities that occurred from 2001 to Comparing 2000 with 2004, the number of work zone fatalities represents about 2.5% of total highway fatalities. Going farther back in time, the number of work zone fatal crashes and fatalities steadily increased from 1997 through It is difficult to assess whether the recent encouraging trends will continue. 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, % 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% People Killed in Work Zones % of Total Fatalities % Figure 19.1 Recent Trends in Work Zone Fatalities (Source: FARS) Trend analysis would be incomplete without adjusting for or considering trends in construction activity. According to ARTBA (see Figure 19.2), the dollar value of construction increased by 11 percent from 2000 to 2004, and then jumped 8.6% from 2004 to Also note the steady increase in construction activity in the 1997 to 2002 time frame.

57 Highway and Street Construction in the U.S. Dollar Value Year Figure 19.2 Highway and Street Construction Expenditures (source: ARTBA) Status of Full Implementation The AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan outlines four basic strategies, which are further refined and described in greater detail in NCHRP Report 500 Volume 17. The fundamental principles in all strategies are to limit the time, length and traffic volume exposure to work zones; to improve the quality and consistency of application of good work zone design practices (including both design and traffic control measures); and to increase driver awareness of operating safely through work zones. Much has been accomplished at the national level in recent years. FHWA has sponsored the development of a work zone website (see and has developed numerous tools for work zone planning and design. Also, new rules governing planning and design of work zone have recently been approved and published. Awareness of work zone safety has been a focus at the national level, with continuing promotion of a National Work Zone Awareness Week (April 3 9). FHWA has also actively promoted a number of fundamental changes in construction practices. Their Accelerated Construction Technology Transfer program has been designed to promote innovations in construction methods, contracting and approach to reduce times of construction. Their Highway for Life program promotes longer lasting infrastructure renewal. Both of these initiatives were not driven directly by safety concerns, but they both would result in meaningful impacts on safety to the extent that construction times and hence exposure to work zones decreases, and reconstruction is required less often. FHWA conducts an annual survey of states to self assess their progress in improving work zone safety and mobility. The 2005 survey showed that most states continue to improve

58 both awareness and implementation of best practices. Most agencies reported an increase in their overall work zone self assessment score between 2004 and The average score increased for 35 of 48 agencies (73%). Many states have identified work zone safety as a core issue, and have promoted work zone safety, implemented public information and enforcement campaigns, and addressed engineering practices. Four of the eleven state comprehensive plans reviewed for this study targeted work zone fatalities as a specific area of concern. Finally, innovative contracting has become more prevalent, including design/build and use of contractor incentives, focuses on reducing construction times and on rewarding performance for meeting established objectives such as avoidance of work zone crashes and fatalities. The FHWA Self-assessment survey showed that, of 48 reporting agencies, 41 of them (85%) are developing policies to support the use of innovative contracting strategies to reduce contract performance periods. Strategies used include A+B bidding, design-build, and incentives/disincentives on major projects. Updated and Refined Estimates of Effectiveness The original study assessed in general the overall level of work zone fatalities and the measures addressed by AASHTO, and assumed a potential reduction in fatalities of 3 to 5%. It is difficult to translate this to a meaningful number given the fundamental issues of exposure discussed above. On a positive note, agencies are paying more direct attention to measuring and tracking work zone crashes. The FHWA self-assessment survey showed that, as of 2005, 32 agencies (67%) have established measures to track work zone crashes. Strategies mentioned by respondents include adopting policies to track work zone crashes as part of their standard operating procedures and including work zone crashes in their overall crash reports. One state noted that it has a crash database, but it is difficult to determine which crashes were in work zones and can be attributed to work zones. In the judgment of the authors, it is reasonable to expect a more significant reduction in work zone fatalities as more agencies adopt practices described above. While somewhat speculative, a reduction from 2.5% of fatalities as is currently the case, to 2.0% would appear both achievable and reasonable. Using the 2004 baseline statistics, a reduction of 0.5% of total fatalities attributable to comprehensive and national implementation of improved work zone planning, design, operations and maintenance practices would amount to 215 fatalities annually. Note that this represents a somewhat modest improvement in the sense that fatalities would return to 1994 levels. Comprehensive improvements to contracting practices, work zone planning, design and operations, and enhanced awareness of work zone safety have the potential for saving 215 lives annually. Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study offered no estimates of cost. Strategies at that point were generally described as education/training and enforcement. It seems evident that meaningful changes in construction practices would bring with them additional costs. Upgrading of work zone safety equipment and standards, more rigorous

59 approaches to work zone layouts, and more ongoing training and use of law enforcement should in the aggregate represent an increased cost to agencies at the project level. Use of innovative contracting methods is generally viewed as increasing cost over a non-incentivebased low bid model. Indeed, FHWA recognizes this by publishing guidance for sources of funding of the costs of the new work zone rules: Some existing sources of funding may be applied toward implementing elements of the Rule. Current funding sources for deploying certain transportation management strategies could include use of National Highway System (NHS), Interstate Maintenance (IM), Surface Transportation Program (STP), STP set-aside, Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program, Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), and 402 funds. One example would be using temporary ITS deployments in work zones that could be converted to permanent use, thereby securing funding from the region for their deployment. Another example would be the use of 402 funds or possibly 408 funds to gather and analyze traffic safety data related to work zones. Developing and performing work zone safety training for law enforcement officers may also be eligible for 402 funds. Some work zone safety training may also be eligible for funding through a new Work Zone Safety Grants program established in the Safe, Accountable, Flexible Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). Other sources of funding, albeit on a smaller scale, could include use of Technology Transfer, Local Technical Assistance Program (LTAP), and FHWA Operations Support Program funds. These types of funding sources could be used for such items as local training courses or workshops. Through innovative partnership, each LTAP center matches every Federal dollar it receives with local funds. While somewhat speculative, it is believed important to attempt to quantify what these costs may represent. The following table represents costs for total state highway disbursements in 2000, according to the FHWA. If one takes only the disbursements for capital improvements on existing highways for which the work zone issue is relevant ($38.23 billion) as a cost basis, and then assumes an incremental cost of these practices applied universally, a basis for assigning national costs can be derived. Table 19.1 Total State Disbursement for Highways in $89.8 Billion Billions of Dollars Percentage New Road and Bridge Construction $ % Other Capital Improvement on Existing Highways $ % Physical Maintenance $ % Traffic Services $ % Administration, Planning and Research $ % Highway Law Enforcement and Safety $ % Grants-in-aid $ % Debt Service $ % Source: Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information

60 Direct costs associated with work zone traffic control can vary widely depending on the project. Such costs in the aggregate are typically 15% of the cost of reconstruction projects. Indirect costs associated with increased project complexity, loss of productivity, longer schedules and other similar issues are not possible to quantify. Based on the above, an incremental cost of 0.25% to 1.0% of the $38 billion annual reconstruction expenditure would translate to an additional cost of $95.5 to $382 million annually. An annual cost estimate of $350 million (roughly $7 million per state) is believed a reasonable representation of the additional annual costs associated with implementation of improved work zone safety practices. These costs would tend to be accrued at the individual project level. Comprehensive improvements to contracting practices, work zone planning, design and operations, and enhanced awareness of work zone safety have the potential for increasing project and hence agency costs by $350 million per year.

61 Area 20 Enhancing Medical Capabilities to Increase Survivability The timeliness and quality of medical care for victims of motor vehicle crashes is a critical factor in the survivability of such victims. Having sufficient resources, trained personnel, and information infrastructure in place to bring resources to the scene of a crash are all important elements. Area 20 of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan deals with these issues. The need for adequate medical capabilities is universal. In the highway environment, though, the issue is particularly critical in rural areas. A serious traffic crash that occurs 30 or more miles from a trauma center or medical support is commonplace in many parts of the country. Progress Since 2000 According to the FHWA, 60 percent of traffic fatalities occur in rural areas. This is for many reasons, including prevalence of higher speed driving, and more VMT using higher risk, two-lane roads. Thus, over 25,000 fatalities occur in areas potentially subject to inadequate or untimely medical care. NCHRP Report 500 Volume 15 addresses strategies for improving EMS care. In that document it was noted that the number of fatalities in rural areas was increasing from 1995 through 2002, with the total increase in that time period of more than 8000 fatalities. The fatality rate in rural areas remains consistently higher than in urban areas. It was also noted that there is an inverse correlation between mortality rate and population density. 30,000 25,000 Rural Urban Number of Fatalities 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year Figure 20-1 Number of Traffic Fatalities by Year and Location, (Source: Highway Statistics (FHWA), Traffic Safety Facts and FARS (NHTSA))

62 3 2.5 Rural Urban Fatalities per 100 Million VMT Year Figure 20-2 Fatality Rates by Year and Location, (Source: Highway Statistics (FHWA), Traffic Safety Facts and FARS (NHTSA)) Status of Full Implementation NCHRP Report 500 Volume 15 outlines strategies designed to improve information and communication, provide better trained personnel, and enable integration of medical resources. The fundamental objectives are bringing quality critical care to the scene of a crash within one hour of the event. Research has demonstrated that delivery of such care within what is referred to as the golden hour increases greatly the chances of survivability.

63 7 min. 12 min. 37 min. Time of Crash to Notification Time Notification to the Time of Arrival at Scene Arrival at Scene to Time of Arrival at Hospital 3 7 min. 27 min Note: Times rounded to the nearest minute. Figure 20-3 National Average EMS Response Times for Fatal Crashes in 2002 Source: NCHRP Report 500, Volume Rural Urban 30 Percentage to to to to to to to 120 Response Time (Minutes) Figure 20-4 Fatal Crashes by EMS Response Times within Designated Minutes for 2002 (Source: USDOT, 2004)

64 Barriers to this include both budgetary as well as institutional issues. An assessment of how individual states are doing specifically in this area is not possible, but some insights are available from credible sources. The American College of Emergency Physicians publishes an annual assessment of the state of emergency medical care. It is based on an assessment of four factors access to emergency care, quality and patient safety, public health and injury prevention, and the medical liability environment. Their 2006 report gives an overall grade of C- to all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Fully 12 states received a grade of D or D+, and only ten states were graded at B or B-. Note that many of the states receiving low grades are the high risk, rural states in which quality emergency care for motor vehicle crash victims is particularly important. Two of the eleven state plans for Alabama and Washington addressed this emphasis area directly in their state comprehensive plan. Two other states referred to elements of EMS management indirectly. NHTSA reports on a major activity involving many organizations associated with providing emergency medical assistance. The EMS Agenda for the Future Implementation Guide outlines a vision and 90 specific suggestions for state and national action on how to arrive at the vision. Updated and Refined Effectiveness Estimates The original study was not able to estimate the benefits in this area. This updated study effort relied on information and sources highlighted in the NCHRP Report 500 series Volume 15 guide. A rough estimate that is considered quite conservative is possible. As is shown above, the response time to about 30 percent of fatal crashes in rural areas exceeded the 60 minute time period; in another 15% response times were greater than 50 minutes. According to numerous research studies on mortality summarized by NHTSA, an estimate of preventable mortality by appropriate and timely medical care is 15%. Assuming that 15% of the 30 percent of rural fatalities with response times greater than 60 minutes are preventable, and half that figure (7.5%) of fatalities with response times of 50 to 59 minutes are preventable; and applying these percentages to the roughly 25,600 rural fatalities in 2004 provides an estimated reduction in fatalities of 1438; say 1450 fatalities per year. Note that this estimate assigns benefits to rural fatalities only (EMS enhancement strategies apply everywhere). It also does not account for societal benefits associated with enhanced survivability from other non-motor vehicle crashes. Finally, this emphasis area addresses severity but not frequency of motor vehicle crashes. To the extent that motor vehicle crash frequency can be reduced due to implementation of other strategies in other emphasis areas, the savings associated with this emphasis area would be reduced. Full implementation of enhanced emergency medical system strategies to increase survivability has the potential to reduce fatalities by 1450 per year based on 2004 statistics.

65 Updated and Refined Estimates of Cost The original study offered no estimates of the implementation of strategies in this emphasis area. Indeed, the medical profession has difficulty developing such estimates given the wide geographic, political, cultural and other variations found across the nation. A primary author of the NCHRP Report 500 Volume 15 guide, John Chew, suggests that the many variables involved, including the level of desired performance, make this exercise impossible An opinion survey of state EMS Directors conducted in 2000 (refer to provided wide variations in the indicated need for resources to carry out their state s mission. For capital needs (communications systems, medical equipment, ambulances) the average survey response was $12.2 million per state; but estimates varied by a factor of 77 from low to high, and 13 state directors did not believe they had sufficient information to even make an estimate. The survey authors, using the $12.2 million figure, calculated a national capital cost estimate of $331.6 million. The same survey indicated the greatest needs were in the recruitment, retention, development and management oversight of staff. No estimates of annual operating costs were offered in this survey. A review of the material in the EMS National Agenda for the Future also yielded no quantifiable annual operating costs. For this study three states were examined in an effort to determine an average dollar amount per person per year for these services. All states were reluctant to provide any information because of the extreme number of variables involved would lead to a less than accurate total cost. These factors included: The large number of volunteer personnel in this field The EMS budget is incident driven and not predictable Wages very from region to region Volunteers only get paid when they work Grant money is used to offset annual budget costs for equipment and other purchases but is sporadic and not a guaranteed figure The number of agencies within a state providing these services was in the hundreds and these agencies do not provide that information to the states States saw little value in the effort to capture the information by contacting every full time or volunteer agency providing the services Volunteers are usually dispatched by pager or RF networks that are owned and operated by full time public safety agencies. Their communication equipment can require major repairs or replacement at any time making this budget difficult to determine as well Local and state EMS providers appear to all have individual operating budgets that greatly fluctuate because they are incident driven. Providing statistics from each state s EMS budget would only cover the state and not the hundreds of other providers within the state. The interviews conducted for this project however do indicate that the annual operating costs, although unable to determine, are substantial. It is important to assign some number to the cost of EMS service for no other reason than failure to do so may leave an impression that costs are low or already being covered. Given

66 the age and uncertainty of the survey findings described above, an estimate of $400 million (roughly a 20% increase over the year 2000 estimate of $331 million) is considered a reasonable placeholder for purposes of this report. This is undoubtedly low; but again, the commensurate benefits are undoubtedly higher as well. An additional study of the cost of service was conducted by Mr. Stacey Black a retired Division Commander from the Milwaukee County Sheriff s Department in Wisconsin. Samplings of nationwide regions or counties were taken to determine their annual operating budgets and EMS budgets. Regions and counties that were examined ranged in population from 17,000 (small), 100,000 (medium) and 1,000,000 (large). The smaller communities had the lowest costs per population averaging $3.00 per person per year. The mid-range regions were the most expensive peaking at $14.00 per person per year. The large communities pay $10-12 annually per person for services however the money comes from a larger variety of sources. More people in large communities receive public assistance for housing and utilities positioning the state and federal government as the ultimate contributors to the costs through tax levy. Other information from industry sources suggests current coverage is over 95% of the U.S. population. Based on this small study a reasonable assumption is that the cost of service, currently being borne by individuals and various units of government, amounts to $4.3 billion annually. From the above it appears that current expenditures for both communications and EMS service are on the order of $4.7 billion for the level of service being provided. To achieve a higher level of service (greater quality care to a crash site in a shorter response time on a broad basis) it seems clear that an incrementally greater expenditure is needed. Given that essentially full service is in place such incremental investments would seem mostly associated with capital and operating budgets of the EMS providers. While speculative in nature, a tripling of current costs from $400 million to $1.2 billion (incremental increase of $0.8 billion) is put forth as a basis for estimating costs. Costs of providing enhanced emergency medical services to improve survivability are estimated to be $0.8 billion annually over current estimated levels, representing both capital and operating expenses.

67 Areas 21 and 22 Improving Information and Decision Support Systems and Creating More Effective Processes and Safety Management Systems Central to achieving measurable reductions in injuries and fatalities is having the knowledge and data to identify problems, analyze and implement effective solutions. These two areas of the Strategic Highway Safety Plan deal with the building of safety-based knowledge systems and processes. Progress Since 2000 The highway industry has made and continues to make investments in safety-based knowledge. FHWA has sponsored research resulting in tools and techniques that are being institutionalized. These include SafetyAnalyst, a software package for programming and project evaluation for safety. FHWA has also produced and continue to build on their Interactive Highway Safety Design Model, which is used by the Federal Lands Division and many state DOTs in project development. NHTSA continues to fund research and development on driver, vehicle and passenger safety, contributing knowledge as well as tools and processes for programs to enhance safety. Such tools are being used by states and other units of government to implement effective programs. Both FHWA and AASHTO through the NCHRP program and pooled funds efforts have funded safety research to facilitate SHSP program implementation and build knowledge of highway safety. Notable efforts include production of the NCHRP Report 500 series volumes on the SHSP emphasis areas. An important initiative that began in 2000 and is continuing is the development of the first Highway Safety Manual, an effort funded by both NCHRP and FHWA. This will produce a document representing best safety knowledge and practices for use by the profession. In a number of states, safety audits or their equivalent are becoming institutionalized as part of project development. A significant portion of the SHRP II research program authorized in the SAFETEA-LU legislation is dedicated to highway safety, with emphasis on driver/vehicle interaction and better understanding of risk. Finally, processes and research are not usable without the underlying data. Efforts are in place around the country at the state level to build and/or enhance and integrate appropriate safety data (crashes, traffic volumes, roadway inventories, driver record systems, etc.) for use in program development and project applications. The SAFETEA-LU legislation provides direct incentives for states and other agencies to develop appropriate data systems. Status of Full Implementation Most states have completed or are nearing completion of their state comprehensive safety plans. In many instances this effort itself has provided clear value by bringing together the safety partners and stakeholders, identifying institutional barriers and issues, accomplishing coordination, and in many cases initiating processes that will improve safety decision-

68 making. In many states, regular coordination meetings and sharing of information among safety partners has become part of normal business. As of the preparation of this report there remains much to be done. Many states continue to struggle with adequacy, currency and quality of data. (The FHWA is requiring states produced evaluations of their top 5% critical safety problems. This requires sufficient knowledge of types and locations of crashes, and appropriate measures of exposure. The ability of states to accomplish this varies widely at this point.) Of particular concern nationally is the lack of usable data for the local highway system. Besides data, there is a recognized need to upgrade the breadth and depth of the highway safety skill set. The science of highway safety is advancing rapidly; many states have not maintained their expertise, and at the local level safety knowledge and skills are generally lacking. As programs and tools come out, and legislative mandates appear at the local level, local units of government will seek help from state DOTS, most of which do not have the necessary personnel to address such needs. As more tools such as SafetyAnalyst come online and the need for states to be able to prove the effectiveness of their programs, the problems with limited data will create a sense of need and urgency. At the state level investments in roadside data, better traffic volume information, and improved GIS systems is clearly indicated. Of perhaps greatest overall need is the issue of local (county and municipal) data and information systems, which from a safety data perspective are in many instances completely lacking. The vast majority of agencies at the county and municipal level lack both the data and resources to accomplish even what states can currently do. Whether agencies build capabilities internally or contract for them, an additional cost for skill development and application is clearly needed. Costs and Effectiveness Estimates In the original study it was reported that investments of $3 to $5 million per state would be needed for effective safety management systems, and ongoing maintenance and staffing of such resources were estimated to require about $1.5 million per state. These numbers reflected the building of a core capability at the state DOT level. While no firm data are offered, based on our experience with a number of state DOTs it would now appear that ongoing support for data systems, knowledge acquisition, training and staff development, and application at all levels of government could easily amount to $5 to $20 million per state annually. Much of this would be to provide sufficient resources to address local government needs. With respect to safety management data systems, at the higher end, such an investment could support full development and ongoing use of high quality integrated GIS data systems incorporating traffic, crash, driver records, trauma center, maintenance and enforcement data for all levels of government. It would also represent the ongoing necessary investment to engage multi-agency stakeholder activities. Note that core data such as roadside conditions are not in any state data base, yet are considered essential to achieving full understanding of highway safety on the system.

69 Investments in staff development, knowledge and data acquisition and management to accommodate safety-based evaluations and decisions at all levels of government may require $510 million annually ($10 million per state). This investment would include what states are currently spending on their safety programs and staff. This number is difficult to estimate, but is probably on the order of $1 million to $3 million per state. The additional investment (from $7 to $9 million per state), of course, when measured against each state s safety record, is readily justified and indeed required to garner full effectiveness of investments in safety. Finally, the original study cited a cost to develop and further refine the national safety agenda, with specific reference to research. These costs are not repeated here as they were addressed in the SAFETEA-LU legislation through both FHWA research funding and the SHRP II initiative. The original study assigned no nominal savings in terms of reduced injuries and fatalities to this emphasis area. This reflected a desire not to double count benefits assigned to other areas. However, clearly the ability to produce benefits in keeping with the investments in those other areas is heavily dependent on successful completion of the many efforts under emphasis areas 21 and 22.

70 Evaluation of Trends We remain a long way from reaching a national goal of reducing highway fatalities to 35,000 per year or less. Measurable aggregate reductions in highway fatalities have not yet been observed for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the steady increase in travel. Exhibit 2 demonstrates that traffic from 1994 to 2003 has steadily increased. These increases are expected to continue. Vehicle Miles Traveled, By Year 35,000 30, Million Vehicle Miles Traveled 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 y = x R 2 = , Year Exhibit 2 Traffic Trends ( ) Increased travel translates to increased exposure to risk and greater numbers of fatalities and injuries unless changes in risk can be accomplished. The consequences of not reaching the established goals are therefore severe. By 2020, if no change in the fatality rate occurs the number of fatalities in 2020 would reach 58,500, and total highway deaths from 2010 to 2020 would be almost 600,000. A decrease in the rate to 1.3 fatalities per 100 MVMT would translate to over 51,000 fatalities in 2010 and over 520,000 in the 2010 to 2020 time period. These numbers compare with aggregate fatalities of 39,500 in 2010 and just over 400,000 in the 2010 to 2020 time period were we to reach the stated goal of 1.0 fatalities per 100 MVMT by 2010.

71 Projected Number of Highway Fatalities, Based on Fatality Rate 65,000 60,000 55,000 Projected Number of Fatalities 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 Current Trend Fatality Rate = 1.3 Fatality Rate = 1.0 Fatality Rate = ,000 25, Year Exhibit 3 Fatality Trends Reaching the goal of 1.0 or less is clearly difficult but seems doable. A review of other statistics provides insights on how to accomplish this. First, consider Exhibit 4, which shows current fatality rates by state. While there is some risk in comparing states given differences in topography, context, climate and driving population, the numbers are useful. First, there are four states (all New England states) which already experience fatality rate less than the 1.0 goal. Second, there are 19 states that currently experience rates of 1.70 or higher, with 8 states greater than 2.0 per MVMT. It is generally true that western states, with more two-lane highways, greater climate and topographic challenges, longer distances and higher speeds experience greater fatality rates. But geography and context only explain some this wide variation. The states of Washington and Utah, for example, have much lower rates than neighboring states. The fatality rates of North and South Dakota are significantly different. Kentucky s fatality rate is 67% greater than the neighboring state of Ohio. What explains such significant differences? What approaches, lessons learned or emphasis can be transferred from more successful to less successful states?

72 Fatality Rate, By State, 2003 Fatality Rate (per 100 million VMT) Montana South Dakota Mississippi Louisiana Arkansas Arizona Idaho South Carolina Kentucky Alaska West Virginia New Mexico Nevada Missouri Wyoming Tennessee Alabama Florida Texas North Carolina Kansas District of Columbia Delaware Nebraska Colorado Pennsylvania Georgia Oklahoma State Oregon Hawaii Iowa Wisconsin North Dakota Maine Illinois California Utah Michigan Rhode Island Virginia Maryland Minnesota Ohio Indiana New York Washington New Jersey New Hampshire Connecticut Massachusetts Vermont Exhibit 4 Fatality Rate by State For insights on this issue a simple analysis was performed. States were categorized by their fatality rate in three groupings low (15 states with less than 1.3 per 100 MVMT); average (17 states with rates of 1.3 to 1.7) and high (19 states with rates greater than 1.7). In the 19 states with the highest overall rates a total of 18,108 fatalities well over 40% of the national total occurred. It is well understood in the highway community, and reinforced by this study, that the two most significant factors influencing highway safety within a region or jurisdiction are the extent of alcohol involvement in crashes, and the usage of seat belts and restraints. Statistics for alcohol involvement and seatbelt usage were compiled for each state and average aggregate statistics calculated. Figure 4 summarizes the relationship between these factors and statewide fatality rates for all 50 states. As shown in Exhibit 5, the average seatbelt usage (right scale) in the high rate states is 5 percentage points lower than the other two groupings, and the percent of fatal crashes involving alcohol (left scale) is 3 to 4 percentage points higher than the other two groups. Given that both these factors are known to contribute to fatalities, it seems clear where focus needs to be. To illustrate the potential for targeted, meaningful reductions within performance measures achieved by others, consider the following. If in the 19 states with the highest fatality rates total system safety incorporating lower alcohol involvement, increased seat belt usage, and other targeted improvements was implemented such that they became no worse

73 than average (a rate of 1.43), almost 4200 lives annually (based on 2003 data) would be saved just in these 19 states. Of course, other factors besides alcohol and seat belt usage explain why state fatality rates vary. But clearly, the above analysis demonstrates that achieving meaningful reductions at the individual state level can have a measurable national effect. Moreover, such reductions are achievable today (at least to the extent that there are states with low fatality rates, with lower rates of alcohol involvement, and with high seatbelt usage rates). Alcohol and Restraint Use Relationship to Fatality Rate, % 81% 42% 80% 79% 41% 78% Percentage 40% 39% 38% 77% 76% 75% 74% Percent of Fatalities Involving Alcohol Average Seat Belt Use Percentage 37% 73% 36% < > 1.7 Fatality Rate (Number of Fatalities Per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled) Exhibit 5 Alcohol and Restraint Relationship to Fatality Rate 72% Summary Discussion Aggregate statistics concerning highway safety in the U.S. may give the impression that the movement to reduce fatalities has stalled. In the past five years the number of fatalities and injuries has remained at a relatively constant 43,000 and 2.8 million per year respectively. Fatality rates have declined, but we remain well short of the national goal of 1.0 fatalities per 100 MVM. A somewhat different and more optimistic perspective is gained, leading also to direction for future efforts, when one considers disaggregated statistics as well as the status of ongoing efforts to organize, fund and attack highway safety problems. The following table summarizes a report card on 21 of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan emphasis areas, based on the information in this report. Implementation efforts, measurable progress, and future goals are summarized as well as the updated expected annual investments to achieve these benefits.

74 Exhibit 6 Report Card In 15 of the 21 areas it seems clear that implementation efforts under FHWA and NHTSA leadership and state DOT efforts are well underway. At the national level, programs to increase seat belt and child restraint usage (Area 8) and address younger driver problems (Area 1) are clearly succeeding and having a positive, measurable effect. Other areas in which the trends appear positive include pedestrian safety (Area 9), Truck Traffic Safety (Area 12), and vehicle-train safety (Area 14), as well as older driver safety (Area 3). States are now generally fully engaged in full program definition and implementation of infrastructureoriented emphasis areas (Areas 15 through 18). In some areas measurable benefits have yet to accrue or be seen. These areas tend to focus on subject matter involving implementation of safety-based infrastructure improvements. Funding through SAFETEA-LU has just now begun to be available. Many states have only recently completed their safety management planning process; and in many cases actual project implementation is only in its early stages. Moreover, this report is based on year 2004 statistics, the most recent available data nationally. Implemented safety infrastructure in the past three years would not show up in the reported crash statistics. Given the program and project development process, even relatively low-cost improvements may not be fully in place programmatically before 2007 or Indeed, most states for funding reasons will implement their safety infrastructure investments over the life of the